MistaFlava's NFL Week 1 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

2017 MistaFlava's NFL Pre-Season Record: 13-4 ATS (+96.00 Units)

Welcome to another NFL season. I had one of my best pre-seasons ever and I hope it can carry over into the regular season. I will be providing writeups for almost all plays (hopefully time permits) and will be going with 10, 25 and 50 Unit picks this season.

Tracking will always be kept here.

Good luck to all in 2017 and let's make some cash!

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Thursday, September 7


Kansas City Chiefs +8 (10 Units)

And we are back for another season of NFL Football! The tendency on banner night is to always go with the home team because the momentum is with them and they should be up for it right? True. But not always. I love the Kansas City Chiefs here. Not only do I believe they can put points up on the board but I think they can put some 25+ points up on the board and unless their defense is horrendous, that should get them the cover. Look no further than New England's defense. The pre-season means absolutely nothing but it has to be concerning that New England allowed 31, 27, 28 and 40 points in their four pre-season games. The starters had to have something to do with that. No depth, no big covers. KC on the other hand had a few duds (Seattle and San Francisco games) but managed to hold both the Tennessee Titans and Cincinnati Bengals to under 12 points allowing an average of 9.0 points per game in those games. We all know the Pats are going to score some points in this one but how will they look without their go to guy Julian Edelman? This team has always been about "next man up" and they have some weapons but Kansas City is a "bend but don't break" defense. They allowed 19.4 points per game in 2016 which ranks #7 in the NFL. They allow a ton of yards but it's not easy putting up big points on these guys.

The one thing we know about the NFL is that consistency is hard. Although that doesn't really apply to the Patriots, I do believe they are going to have a hangover from last season's Super Bowl and I do believe some of the departed or injured players are going to be missed. Believe it or not the Chiefs were a very good road team last season going 6-0 ATS in their last six games away from home. Let's take a look at these two teams when they play early in the season. There are two sample games to look at. September 2008 when Kansas City came into Foxboro as a 16 point underdog and lost 17-10. More recently when New England went to Kansas City as a -3 point favorite in 2014 and were blown out by a score of 41-14 (Alex Smith had 3 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions). So again for me it's a big concern that New England's defense looked so bad in the pre-season but it's only the pre-season. Nonetheless, Kansas City has the speed to really hurt the Pats and I see them finding a way to win this game. I rarely take underdogs when I don't pick them to win in the NFL but in this case....it's the Patriots.

Trend of the Game: Kansas City is 6-0 ATS in their last six road games dating back to 2016


New England 26, Kansas City 25




​more to come...

 

[MacDoogie]

Thanks for sharing the LOVE!! BOL MistaFlava

 

[United]

Good luck this season MF

 

[3pointdog]

On it, let's cash with KC tonight...!

 

[MistaFlava]

Honestly this Patriots D is a bigger mess than I thought but we saw shades of this in the pre-season. They were atrocious. Congrats all Chiefs backers, looking good!

 

[Lvtexholdm]

Great call MistaFlava!!

 

[oatiko]

congrats flava! looking forward on your insight on the rest of the games this weekend. BOL along the way!

 

[RenoChazz]

Easy win. Nice job on us, and nice write up.

 

[spiderwebb1983]

Nice work

 

[MemphisReb]

Well done!

 

[drega09]

Great call. Congrats on the good start to the season.

 

[3pointdog]

spot on bro!!

 

[kcody9]

Nicely done Flava!

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Sunday, September 10



Detroit Lions +2.5 (10 Units)

This is one of my favorite picks of the week but I am staying stead on units for now. I honestly thought we'd see a lot more money on the Cardinals but the "Cardinal" rule of betting comes into play here and that's fading West Coast teams who are playing a 1:00pm game on the East Coast. It doesn't always work and the success rate is only about 55-60% but it's a nice angle. Arizona will have one of the top defenses in the NFL this season but it's hard to tell what a team can do in their opener. We all know Detroit can score points and QB Matt Stafford had a good 2016 season at home throwing 13 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions with a QB Rating of 96.6 while rushing for 17.3 yards per game with 1 rushing touchdown on the season. Carson Palmer on the other hand played 7 road games in 2016 with a RB Rating of only 77.0 while throwing 13 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions. OUCH! The Lions D will most certainly have some opportunities to make big plays. Palmer was also sacked 24 times in those games,

Not much to go by on the ATS side for these two teams but Detroit has covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 Week 1 plays and then it's a bit of a mess after that. I rarely bet on the Lions but if I do it's Week 1. They also come into this game having covered 5 of their last 7 home games. The big one for me here is that the Home Team is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 played in this series and Arizona is 1-4 ATS in their last five games played in Detroit. The Underdog has covered 4 of the last 5 and I'm going with Lions to win and cover.

Trend of the Game: TheHome Team is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.


Detroit 27, Arizona 16





Washington Redskins +1 (10 Units)

I love small home underdogs in Week 1 of the season. It's not easy to go on the road and win as a short favorite. The Eagles from what I saw in the pre-season cannot play defense for their lives against solid offenses. Their only two decent performances were against the Jets and the Bills who will be squaring off for last place in the NFL and the #1 pick overall in 2018. The Redskins have owned the Eagles in their last five regular seasons meetings going 5-0 SU and they are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams. CRAZY! QB Kirk Cousins is ready for his big payday and I'm sure he is going to be fired up for the opener. The Redskins D actually looked solid in the pre-season as they allowed 23 or less points in each game and improved on their points allowed in all four pre-season games (23, 21, 17 and 10 in that order). Not a huge fan of the Redskins running game but with WR Terrell Pryor Sr. joining this receiving corps and giving Cousins a legit WR1 we could see some huge plays from this offense in 2017.

This is all about ownership for me and Washington owns the Eagles. Looking back at least season the Eagles are an awful 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games and Washington has not covered the spread in Week 1 of a season since 2012 but the Redskins 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus NFC East opponents. As mentioned before the Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with Washington and they have covered the spread in only 1 of their last 5 trips to Trump's home base. For whatever reason the Redskins are ALWAYS underdogs in this matchup and the dog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Redskins all day for me.

Trend of the Game: Washington is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings with Philadelphia.


Washington 35, Philadelphia 21




more to come...

 

[BEERCAN]

Good luck flava....and thanks for the picks.

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...




Indianapolis Colts +3.5 (10 Units)

I don't care who is playing quarterback for the Colts you want to make the LA Rams a favorite of more than a field goal after what you saw from these guys last season? My goodness. Shocking. Almost 70% of the betting public is on it only for the fact that Andrew Luck is not playing. Scott Tolzien gets the nod and believe me that's really scary. He's been awful over the course of his career as a starter throwing 1 TD and 5 interceptions in 3 games but this is again where the line doesn't make sense. The Rams should be favored by 7 at least like the Bills are. The bookies know the Colts can compete. Jim Irsay cleaned house in the off-season with his management staff and we'll see right away if it makes a difference. The Colts have a tremendous receiving crops and RB Frank Gore is capable of getting some yards. No Aaron Donald is HUGE in this game and I think the Colts are going to play the possession game, run the ball and let Tolzien make the simple plays in the air. Are you telling me Jared Goff will be better than 2016? 7 starts, 63.6 QB Rating, 5 touchdown passes, 7 interceptions, 26 sacks and 5 fumbles (2 lost). If the Colts play against anyone who can expose the Colts secondary I'll go against them but no way the Rams can do that.

Both teams have horrendous lifetime records on the spread in Week 1 of the season but I would like to focus in on the fact that the Rams are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall dating back to last season and are now favored by more than a field goal in the opener. It almost doesn't make sense. The Colts, despite not having Luck, finished last season 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games and surprised quite a few people by winning and keeping games close. When was the last time the Rams covered a spread at home? I can't remember. They are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. This is going an ugly game. Colts for me to win it.

Trend of the Game: Los Angeles is 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.


Indianapolis 19, LA Rams 10





​more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Green Bay Packers -2.5 (10 Units)
San Francisco 49er +4.5 (10 Units)




more to come (Sunday/Monday Night Football)




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[MistaFlava]

adding...



New York Giants +5.5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***

It's the Sunday Night opener and I know better than to go with America's favorite team in this rivalry. I've been burned too many times over the years and for whatever reason Eli lives for games like this. Okay so Odell Beckham Jr is OUT and the line has moved but I'm not buying it. One guy won't change this game in a rivalry. Guys like Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott dominated the rookie class in 2016 and put up some massive numbers but the turmoil that has surrounded this team for months now with Zeke have to be a distraction and they must have caused some kind of progress stoppage. Last September the Giants were here as +1 point underdogs and won 20-19. In 2015 we were treated to another great game when the Giants were +7 point underdogs and lost only 27-26. In 2013 and 2012 the games here in Dallas were both decided by exactly 5 points (Giants won once and Cowboys won the other). You get my point. It doesn't matter what the line is these games are always close between these two teams. Even without OBJ in the pre-season (few games) this offense managed to score 72 points in their last two games and the offense has found other ways to put points on the board. Dallas won 3 of 4 pre-season games but at no point did they score more than 24 points. We saw this with the Colts today who failed to score more than 23 points in any pre-season game (or something like that), they will struggle. The Giants defense is the real deal and are underestimated almost every single season in September.

The Giants come into this game on a 5-0 ATS streak in the series and the underdog is now 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Sure that trend was bucked in the Philadelphia-Washington series earlier today but you can't compare Kirk Cousins and Eli Manning. Manning is 6-2 ATS in his last eight visits to Dallas. I know there is going to be a ton of hype around the Cowboys but again I really think the whole Zeke thing was a big time distraction not only in training camp but in the pre-season and in the off-season. He managed to make headline news about 10 different weeks of the summer or pre-season for all the wrong reasons. The Cowboys are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven games versus NFC opponents and sure they have an advantage now that Beckham Jr is out but I will take ELI MANNING over DAK PRESCOTT the sophomore any day of the week. He knows how to win in this rivalry and was 2-0 against Dak last year. In those two games the Giants D held this prolific Cowboys offense to 26 points (13 points per game) in two games. Give me some of that Giants dog money!

Trend of the Game: NY Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last meetings against Dallas.


NY Giants 28, Dallas 17




more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

What a mess of a week so far. Looking to bounce back tonight. A few plays.


Monday, September 11



New Orleans-Minnesota 'OVER' 47.5 (10 Units)

I can't pick a side in this one. I want to say AP comes back and chews the Vikings defense up for 100+ yards but that's unlikely to happen because AP is not the AP of the Vikings years. Having said that, this is Drew Brees and he is another one of those quarterbacks who lives for the primetime. He always has. Look at the stats. He is 12-8 lifetime in Monday Night Football games having thrown 46 touchdown passes! Yes 46 touchdowns passes in 20 games is at least two touchdown passes per game and with only 17 interceptions. He has thrown for 6022 yards in those games which means we are in for another classic Drew Brees 300+ yard passing performance. I like the Vikings defense and I think they will be one of the better defenses in the NFL in a few years but they will struggle with an experienced vet like Brees. The Vikings D was taken so high in fantasy drafts because of their ability to make big plays. They can take picks to the house and they can take kickoffs and punt returns to the house with their explosive players. Expect some of that stuff tonight. The Saints defense. I mean what can be said? Always struggling in the regular season, don't think much has changed here. New Orleans was ranked 27th in total yards allowed in the NFL in 2016 and they were DEAD LAST in the NFL IN 2016 against the pass (273.8 passing yards per game). Disgusting. They were second last in the NFL with 28.4 points per game. Minnesota is scoring points tonight, quite a few of them. I know the Saints have new players on D but that takes a while to get going.

Looking back at the 7 meetings played in Minnesota since 1992 and the OVER has gone 6-1 in those games. One thing you have to know about Drew Brees is that he doesn't hold back in Week 1 and he comes into Week 1 every year like he was in mid-season form. This is why the Saints OVER is 6-1 in their last seven Week 1 games. The OVER is 8-3 in their last 11 September games and the OVER is 11-5 in their last 16 games played on a Monday. I want to say the Saints win this game but Minnesota at home will be tough to beat and I'm sure everyone wants to beat Peterson in his return. I'll take the points sit back and watch a ton of scoring.

Trend of the Game: Since 1992, the OVER is 6-1 when these two teams play in Minnesota.


Minnesota 31, New Orleans 28





​more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Denver Broncos -3 (100 Units) ***PRIMETIME PLAY OF THE WEEK***

This is my big one and I was going to uncork it no matter what happened with my other plays. I love the Broncos in this spot. The Chargers are now playing out of Los Angeles and it has to be weird for guys like Phillip Rivers who have been here forever to have to practice, train and prepare away from the home they have always been used to. Denver has to be considered one of the top teams in the NFL coming into this game with one of the best and nastiest defenses around. I don't care who plays behind centre for this team it has not mattered for I'd say the last 3-4 years, this defense is going to make plays. How will Rivers do against this D? Well I know he can move the ball and he can probably score some points. He is 8-8 lifetime on Monday Night Football and he has thrown 28 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions. Not bad at all actually but a 50/50 win record against arguably the best defense in the NFL is not going to cut it. The Broncos were not messing around in the pre-season. They allowed 17, 14, 17 and 2 in their four games and crushed three of their opponents in the total yards differential battle. You think the Broncos didn't care about the pre-season? They went 4-0 SU (3-0-1 ATS) and face a Chargers team who went 1-3 SU and ATS in the pre-season. This is Trevor Siemian's team and he is 1-0 lifetime on Monday Night Football throwing 1 touchdown pass for 157 yards and no interceptions while being sacked 0 times. This is the simple kind of stuff you need from your QB in primetime games like this.

When was the last time the Chargers won here? The answer is 2013 and it was a December game. Other than that the Broncos have won by 7+ in the other 5 meetings since 2012 in this series and I just don't see them not coming out of this with a big win and cover. Over the last three or four seasons the Broncos have actually been somewhat of a bust on Monday Nights but that makes me feel a bit better because you lose a certain percentage of the public plays when the stats don't jive. What I do know about the Broncos is that they are 6-0 ATS in their last six September games and the fact that they went 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in the pre-season tells me this time of the year means a lot to this bunch. Denver is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games dating back to the last two seasons and although San Diego has had some ATS success in this place in the past, the line is strangely low and it's Monday Night Football. Home team always has the advantage. Chargers come into this season on an 0-5 ATS streak dating back to last year and I expect Philip Rivers to make this interesting for a bit but the Denver defense will be too much.

Trend of the Game: Denver is 6-0 ATS in their last six September games.


Denver 31, San Diego 17





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