MistaFlava's NFL Week 1 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2016 NFL Betting Record: 0-0 ATS (+0.00 Units)

Welcome back to all for another great season of capping and discussions. As always feel free to post comments, opinions or thoughts on this thread. I love writing, I love handicapping and I love sports so what I post here is all my stuff, it's my thoughts and use this at your own risk.

I will be posting all my plays for the week periodically in this thread.

Wishing everyone a great capping season!

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Thursday, September 8


Denver Broncos +3 (25 Units)

The Carolina Panthers have had the entire off-season to think about their Super Bowl 50 loss to Denver and believe me when I say it hasn't been a good feeling. If you think that game was tough for them, this is going to be even tougher playing at the altitude of Mile High Stadium. Sure all the weapons are back, QB Cam Newton calls this just another game and next in line but we know the Panthers didn't wan to face Denver in Denver with all the ceremonies and all that to open their season. The Broncos have arguably the best defense in the NFL and it's one of the big reasons they won the Super Bowl and Carolina didn't. Had nothing to do with who was playing QB for Denver.

On that note, we get our first look at QB Trevor Siemian who I don't know much about. What I do know is that the Broncos won the Super Bowl with WR Demaryius Thomas making only one catch for eight yards or something like that. Yes. That was with CB Josh Norman covering him and making life hell for him but Norman is gone and Thomas will be making a lot more plays in this one. Sure it might not come easy for the Broncos and it will be an adjustment in the post Manning/Osweiler era but QB play was not at a premium for this team last season and they lost only 4 games all season.

Don't forget this is the NFL. What "was" one season is never guaranteed the next so anyone expecting Carolina to lose only 1 game again this year is in for a surprise. 71% of the betting public is on Carolina. Vegas is either in a giving mood or they are setting up the betting world for an opening day massacre. Are you comfortable betting against a Denver team that is 15-1 SU in their last 16 home openers? Carolina is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played in Week 1 of the season. Dating back quite some time, Denver is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on Thursday Night Football and they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in September. I like Denver to win and defend their crown with yet another home opener win.

Trend of the Game: Denver is 15-1 SU in their last 16 home openers.


Denver 17, Carolina 10




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[cashflow50]

On the horses myself. Hope we on the winning end. Gl bro

 

[indiana]

M/Flava..........BOL with all your action this weekend...........have a great season............indy

 

[varkeyboy]

Like it.

 

[XSPower]

Good luck tonight!!!

 

[Coldweather]

cheersgif

 

[Lvtexholdm]

Good work Flava!!

 

[chonce]

Thanks for the write-up! I am with you on this game, too.

I was tempted to do the UNDER, but I worry about ball-hawking defenders getting pick 6's or a rookie QB fumbling at his own 5 -- so I took a side.

 

[KingEleven]

Love your final score! Good luck! cheersgif

 

[3pointdog]

Hey mista. Get that W and the $$$$

 

[sendacash]

Good work with that Denver home opener trend, maybe it is some sort of conditioning advantage?

 

[MistaFlava]

Alright what a game to open things up!!!

1-0 ATS (+25.00 Units) on the season!

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Sunday, September 11


Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (10 Units)

Kind of surprising how many are on the Titans in this one when you consider the fact that...they're not every good. Make no mistake about it QB Shaun Hill is getting the call in this one for Minny and that will surely have more backers jump to the Titans side. Give me Minny's running game and Minny's special teams over the Titans and that is what this game is going to come down to. Check the history of this series and you'll see that Minnesota has won 5 of the last 6 meetings. Looking at some of the trends for this one, Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games and they have covered the spread in their last five games played on a grass surface. Tennessee has always been a good ATS fade covering only 15 of their last 54 games overall. Yes that's right. The Vikes have covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings and have won 5 of the last 6 straight up so as an underdog I'll take the favorite in this one (which has covered 4 of the last 5). All signs point to Shaun Hill, AP and the special teams leading these guys to win. Small play for me.

Trend of the Game: Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games.


Minnesota 21, Tennessee 20




Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 (10 Units)

I think this is probably more the case of me fading Atlanta until they can show me that they are back to being a relevant team in the NFL. You have a young Tampa Bay team that comes into this game with a chip on their shoulders. Dirk Koetter is going to unleash this offense on what was a decent Atlanta defense last year. I know they ranked 26th in total offense but things are going to change and the rookies have had a year to grow up. If anyone is going to get this done it's QB Jameis Winston and RB Doug Martin will have to be the sideshow because the last couple of years the Buccaneers have been stopped in the running game by Atlanta. Dating back to last season the Falcons are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall and they are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games versus NFC Conference opponents. I also have an issue with those disputing that this being the last home opener at the Georgia Dome is going to be an inspiration. Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Tampa Bay has covered the spread in 11 of their last 16 trips to Atlanta and with a more open offense I think they are going to take care of business here.

Trend of the Game: Atlanta is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall (dating back to last season).


Tampa Bay 24, Atlanta 17




Baltimore Ravens -3 (10 Units)

I'm a huge Bills fan myself and I'm going against them in this one. The injuries are just too significant and so are the suspensions and I really don't trust way too many members of this team including QB Tyrod Taylor and including the Ryan brothers. T Seantrel Henderson is out until Week 5 and so is DT Marcel Dareus and so is 1st Round pick Shaq Lawson and the list goes on. Rex Ryan just gets way too emotional and having been a D-Coordinator with the Ravens back in the day he's going to want this one bad. Having said that, he is 0-3 SU against Baltimore as a head coach in his career and that goes back to my point of him getting too emotional. Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus AFC East Division opponents and 3-0 ATS in their last three seasons. Not going big on this one because the Ravens were horrendous at home last season but Buffalo is not a good road team and are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four road games. I like the youth of Baltimore to take an emotional Bills club that is very shorthanded and that have had issues the entire off-season with guys going down and guys getting suspended. The Home Team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams. I say the Ravens take this one late.

Trend of the Game: The Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.


Baltimore 19, Buffalo 10




San Diego Chargers +6.5 (10 Units)

You've got over 60% of the betting public going with this one because...it's the Chiefs and the line looks juicy but I'm not convinced at all that without RB Jamaal Charles this team can get the job done. QB Phillip Rivers is way too experienced, he's been there done that and this is just another game for him. Rivers is well aware that if San Diego is going to compete this year they need to win this game having lost four straight to the Chiefs dating back to the last two seasons. The odds point against the Chargers even being competitive in this one but again that doesn't exist with Rivers. San Diego is 6-0 ATS in their last six road games, they are 4-0 ATS in their last four Week 1 games with Rivers at the helm and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games played in September. This is old Phillip's month. If you look at the history between these teams the road team has always had success and almost always covers the spread going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. I think they keep this close and Rivers finds a way to win it late.

Trend of the Game: San Diego is 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.


San Diego 22, Kansas City 20




New Orleans Saints -2.5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***

This is my big one this week and I'm not going to shy away from it. Anytime you go big in the NFL you want to go big on a QB that is probably one day going to be in the Hall of Fame and a team that has been sensational at home over the years. I love Oakland this year and I'm going to be all over them for so many games with some great young talent but to throw them in the SuperDome on the season opening Sunday for a 1:00pm ET game? That's harsh and I just don't see where they are going to outlast Brees and his offense on this turf. Even more satisfying is seeing how many people are taking the Raiders in this one. Oakland is 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with the Saints. We all believe this is going to be a shootout and it probably will be but again I am going with the veteran QB who has a bit more protection this year and who have so many weapons on offense. I know Week 1 has never been kind to Brees and the Saints but the spreads are always too high and the expectations even higher but this line is indicative that the trust is gone and that the era of winning for Brees is perceived to be done with. I'm telling you right now today is going to be a statement game for this offense.

Trend of the Game: New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in their last five games (dating back to last season)


New Orleans 34, Oakland 20




Detroit Lions +2.5 (10 Units)

Tell me something. You all saw both these teams last year now we get a bit of a re-set on things. I see that some 65% of the betting public is going with the Colts and I just don't get it. What exactly has changed from last year? QB Andrew Luck missed 9 games for the Colts last season and this is the first time we see him since the big injury he suffered. Everyone is calling for the OVER and for this one to be a shootout so why in the world is nobody taking the QB who passed for 4000+ yards in each of his last five seasons in the NFL? He had the best pass completion percentage of any NFL QB in 2015 and even with Megatron he still has a great set of receivers to move the ball to. The Colts secondary is an absolute mess with injuries and that is going to cost the them in this game against one of the most prolific passing offenses in the NFL the last five seasons. Field Turf is nothing foreign for the Lions and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on this surface. They also had a strong finish to last season going 6-2 ATS in their last eight games of the season. I do believe the Colts are going to have a good season and I don't usually go against them at home but...Indy is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played in Week 1 of the season and I think their secondary issues are going to cost them. I'm going Detroit.

Trend of the Game: Indianapolis is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played in Week 1 of the season.


Detroit 28, Indianapolis 23




New England Patriots +8 (10 Units)

Okay so what has to be considered here and I know a lot don't see it that way, is that QB Tom Brady appears to be worth some 8 points on the spread because this opened at a pk and since his suspension has now moved all the way to 8 points. Okay Gronk being out also has something to do with this but that's fine. But does anyone remember any of the games in the past when Bill Bellichek and the Patriots have been underdogs? Well I did some research and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog in the last three season and 86-49 ATS since 1992. Billy B teams have always been all about "next man up". Arizona is coming off a great season but they struggled late in the year at home and are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. In the last five meetings between these teams the Patriots have gone 4-1 ATS and I think they are a good enough ball club that anytime you get them as an underdog, no matter who is at the helm, you have to back them. Arizona has been a good Week 1 bet for the last five or six years but I don't see New England and their D just giving up in this one and the Patriots have had enough time to prepare Jimmy G to take on one of the best defenses in the NFL. They will keep things simple and slow this game down as much as possible. I have to with Bill as an underdog. It's been a payday for three years.

Trend of the Game: Arizona is 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.


New England 21, Arizona 19





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[Lvtexholdm]

Love all of your posted plays Flava!

 

[3pointdog]

Mista I posted my top 5 and we are the same. Let's get $ome....!!!

 

[XSPower]

Thanks and goo luck today my friend!!!

 

[ontheoutside]

you have minny as your pick
and you say minny 21 tenny 20

there 2 1/2 point favorites so if your picking them by a point its telling us to bet tenny ,is that right?

 

[MistaFlava]

I deserve to lose on the Saints. No idea why I went so big in Week 1

 

[MistaFlava]

you have minny as your pick
and you say minny 21 tenny 20

there 2 1/2 point favorites so if your picking them by a point its telling us to bet tenny ,is that right?

No I record all my picks at covers.com and I have Minnesota -2.5 just made a typo with final score. Should read Minnesota 31, Tennessee 20

 

[MistaFlava]

Week 1 Recap


Denver +3
Tampa Bay +2.5
New Orleans -2.5
Baltimore -3
San Diego +6.5
Minnesota -2.5
Detroit +2.5
New England +8


5-1 ATS (+10.00 Units) this week with more to come!




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