Mistaflava's 2019 NFL Record: 41-22-3 ATS (+265.50 Units)
Mistaflava's 2019 NFL *BIG PLAYS*: 8-4-1 ATS (+137.50 Units)
What a wild Week 6 it was in the NFL and in my POWER SELECTIONS thread. I went 6-3 ATS and hit my PLAY OF THE YEAR on the Steelers to cover the spread and had them winning on Money Line as well. Huge week. Now 23-9-1 ATS the last three weeks in NFL betting.
Wishing everyone a profitable week, let's make some money!
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Thursday, October 17
Denver Broncos +3 (10 Units)
So what are the odds exactly that the Kansas City Chiefs come into this game on a two game losing streak off home losses to Houston and Indianapolis? If you go all the way back to the Detroit game three weeks ago the Chiefs have now been outyarded by their opponent in three straight games something that did not happen at all in 2018. So what’s wrong exactly? Could it be that opposing teams have finally caught onto their schemes and how to stop this dynamic offense? I mean in their last three games they have managed only 23.7 points per game in their last three games and have done that on 357 total yards per game and an impressive 6.5 yards per play. If you asked me what I was betting on about a month ago I’d say Chiefs against this Broncos defense no matter what the line but the Broncos defense finally woke up after going the first three games of the season with 0 total sacks, 0 total interceptions and 0 total fumble recoveries. Well I can now tell you that in their last three games they have 12 sacks, 5 interceptions and 1 fumble recovery. That’s an incredible change of events for this defense. In those games they have allowed only 13 points per game and 301.7 total yards per game on 4.8 yards per play. The only weakness I’ve noticed is the run game where they allow 4.6 yards per carry in their last three games but Kansas City doesn’t really have a run game and average only 16.7 carries per game in their last three. Want to throw the ball against this defense? Just know that the last 3 quarterbacks (Gardner Minsher, Philip Rivers and Marcus Mariota) combined for an average QB Rating of 61.6 in those games while completing 61.7% of their passes for only 4.9 yards per pass attempt. These guys don’t allow chunk yardage. Kansas City has been a mess lately (5 fumbles in last three games) and Patrick Mahomes is completing only 56.0% of his passes for 7.4 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. He has been sacked 5 times in those games and has an average QB Rating of 87.5. Denver’s 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down defense has been the best in the NFL over the span of the last three games (24.4%) and so has their Red Zone defense (touchdowns scored only 16.7% of the time). Again bad news for a Kansas City offense scoring touchdowns only 54.5% of the time in the Red Zone in their last three games. Like I said this is not the defense to play against when you’re looking for a bounce back. Something not right with this Chiefs offense right now.
The Denver Broncos have made quite the turnaround on their season. I was on them a few times earlier this season and I can safely say I tweeted and called them the worst team in the NFL on 2-3 occasions. My opinion of that has kind of changed. So much credit can be given to this Broncos defense who for some strange season seem to have improved after Bradly Chubb went down with a season ending injury (it doesn’t make sense really) but I think a big part of that turnaround for the defense has to be credited to the offense. They did virtually nothing for the first three weeks of the season but have since bounced back and the Broncos have won two straight games (straight up and spread). In those games the offense is averaging only 20 points per game but they have done that on 330.3 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play. The Kansas City defense has not been good a tall, which we all knew coming into the season, and in their last three games they have allowed 26.7 points per game and have allowed 416.7 total yards of offense on 5.5 yards per play. That’s 0.9 more yards per play than the Broncos defense during that span and 115 more total yards per game. The Broncos running game is on fire right now with RB Philip Lindsay leading a group that averages 120.7 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry their last three games. The Chiefs run D has been brutal and has allowed 186 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry in those last three games and Lindsay should easily crack the 100 rushing yard mark in this one and add a few touchdowns. In the air, believe it or not, QB Joe Flacco has found his groove and is completing 62.8% of his passes for 7.3 yards per pass attempt in his last three games but he has thrown 3 interceptions. In those games he has an average QB Rating of 85.9. In their road games this season Kansas City has allowed opponents to complete 67.6% of their passes for 7.5 yards per pass attempt and opposing road QB’s have an average QB Rating of 99.9 in those games. I do have to credit this Chiefs defense because they have 6 turnovers in their last three games and have kept the offense afloat with good field position and takeways but the Broncos have turned the ball over only 4 times in their last three games. I’m not a huge fan of this Broncos offense and I think the Chiefs will make some plays but if they can run the ball enough and keep Mahomes and company off the field (it’s been the formula so far), they will win this game.
I don’t want to play the crazy “contrarian” role for all the primetime games but it’s hard not to adore the fact that some 65-70% or more of the betting public are on the Chiefs who are coming off two straight losses (both at home) and who are playing against the hottest defense in the NFL right now in a divisional game. Think of how much money Las Vegas can make tonight. Looking back at the last few times Kansas City played in Denver they won by 4 in 2018, by 3 in 2017 and by 3 in 2016. Nothing ever comes easy against the Broncos or in this stadium. The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games playing against a team with a losing record at home (Broncos are 1-2). Denver is an incredible 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday Night Football Games and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games played in October. All the ATS trends for the last few meetings points to the Chiefs but the UNDERDOG is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings and I’m going with the Broncos here.
Trend of the Game: Denver is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday Night Football games.
Denver 20, Kansas City 17
more to come...
Mistaflava's 2019 NFL *BIG PLAYS*: 8-4-1 ATS (+137.50 Units)
What a wild Week 6 it was in the NFL and in my POWER SELECTIONS thread. I went 6-3 ATS and hit my PLAY OF THE YEAR on the Steelers to cover the spread and had them winning on Money Line as well. Huge week. Now 23-9-1 ATS the last three weeks in NFL betting.
Wishing everyone a profitable week, let's make some money!
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Thursday, October 17
Denver Broncos +3 (10 Units)
So what are the odds exactly that the Kansas City Chiefs come into this game on a two game losing streak off home losses to Houston and Indianapolis? If you go all the way back to the Detroit game three weeks ago the Chiefs have now been outyarded by their opponent in three straight games something that did not happen at all in 2018. So what’s wrong exactly? Could it be that opposing teams have finally caught onto their schemes and how to stop this dynamic offense? I mean in their last three games they have managed only 23.7 points per game in their last three games and have done that on 357 total yards per game and an impressive 6.5 yards per play. If you asked me what I was betting on about a month ago I’d say Chiefs against this Broncos defense no matter what the line but the Broncos defense finally woke up after going the first three games of the season with 0 total sacks, 0 total interceptions and 0 total fumble recoveries. Well I can now tell you that in their last three games they have 12 sacks, 5 interceptions and 1 fumble recovery. That’s an incredible change of events for this defense. In those games they have allowed only 13 points per game and 301.7 total yards per game on 4.8 yards per play. The only weakness I’ve noticed is the run game where they allow 4.6 yards per carry in their last three games but Kansas City doesn’t really have a run game and average only 16.7 carries per game in their last three. Want to throw the ball against this defense? Just know that the last 3 quarterbacks (Gardner Minsher, Philip Rivers and Marcus Mariota) combined for an average QB Rating of 61.6 in those games while completing 61.7% of their passes for only 4.9 yards per pass attempt. These guys don’t allow chunk yardage. Kansas City has been a mess lately (5 fumbles in last three games) and Patrick Mahomes is completing only 56.0% of his passes for 7.4 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. He has been sacked 5 times in those games and has an average QB Rating of 87.5. Denver’s 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down defense has been the best in the NFL over the span of the last three games (24.4%) and so has their Red Zone defense (touchdowns scored only 16.7% of the time). Again bad news for a Kansas City offense scoring touchdowns only 54.5% of the time in the Red Zone in their last three games. Like I said this is not the defense to play against when you’re looking for a bounce back. Something not right with this Chiefs offense right now.
The Denver Broncos have made quite the turnaround on their season. I was on them a few times earlier this season and I can safely say I tweeted and called them the worst team in the NFL on 2-3 occasions. My opinion of that has kind of changed. So much credit can be given to this Broncos defense who for some strange season seem to have improved after Bradly Chubb went down with a season ending injury (it doesn’t make sense really) but I think a big part of that turnaround for the defense has to be credited to the offense. They did virtually nothing for the first three weeks of the season but have since bounced back and the Broncos have won two straight games (straight up and spread). In those games the offense is averaging only 20 points per game but they have done that on 330.3 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play. The Kansas City defense has not been good a tall, which we all knew coming into the season, and in their last three games they have allowed 26.7 points per game and have allowed 416.7 total yards of offense on 5.5 yards per play. That’s 0.9 more yards per play than the Broncos defense during that span and 115 more total yards per game. The Broncos running game is on fire right now with RB Philip Lindsay leading a group that averages 120.7 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry their last three games. The Chiefs run D has been brutal and has allowed 186 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry in those last three games and Lindsay should easily crack the 100 rushing yard mark in this one and add a few touchdowns. In the air, believe it or not, QB Joe Flacco has found his groove and is completing 62.8% of his passes for 7.3 yards per pass attempt in his last three games but he has thrown 3 interceptions. In those games he has an average QB Rating of 85.9. In their road games this season Kansas City has allowed opponents to complete 67.6% of their passes for 7.5 yards per pass attempt and opposing road QB’s have an average QB Rating of 99.9 in those games. I do have to credit this Chiefs defense because they have 6 turnovers in their last three games and have kept the offense afloat with good field position and takeways but the Broncos have turned the ball over only 4 times in their last three games. I’m not a huge fan of this Broncos offense and I think the Chiefs will make some plays but if they can run the ball enough and keep Mahomes and company off the field (it’s been the formula so far), they will win this game.
I don’t want to play the crazy “contrarian” role for all the primetime games but it’s hard not to adore the fact that some 65-70% or more of the betting public are on the Chiefs who are coming off two straight losses (both at home) and who are playing against the hottest defense in the NFL right now in a divisional game. Think of how much money Las Vegas can make tonight. Looking back at the last few times Kansas City played in Denver they won by 4 in 2018, by 3 in 2017 and by 3 in 2016. Nothing ever comes easy against the Broncos or in this stadium. The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games playing against a team with a losing record at home (Broncos are 1-2). Denver is an incredible 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday Night Football Games and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games played in October. All the ATS trends for the last few meetings points to the Chiefs but the UNDERDOG is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings and I’m going with the Broncos here.
Trend of the Game: Denver is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday Night Football games.
Denver 20, Kansas City 17
more to come...