Well done!
I had the Steelers but saw your write up and went BIG on them.
THAT was a good pick, so many yesterday were 50-50 with a few minutes to go (Sea-Cleve, etc).
Steelers dominated and their novice QB was smart, played within himself.
Your write ups are helpful, I do not always agree with 100% (like some trends to me are not always relevant) but I look at every one of your write ups and almost always pick up something very useful.
GL!
(again, unlike some posters with no write-ups that I find are not making their picks with true justification, Mistaflava puts himself "out there" for criticism and take the heat when he loses... and again, some posters who do not provide write ups at all I have inquired to them and they satisfied me that they were looking into their picks in depth with experienced know how so I look at their picks, but some that I inquired did not answer or answered with little or no substance, clearly no experties, so I do not even look at their stuff anymore)
I had the Steelers but saw your write up and went BIG on them.
THAT was a good pick, so many yesterday were 50-50 with a few minutes to go (Sea-Cleve, etc).
Steelers dominated and their novice QB was smart, played within himself.
Your write ups are helpful, I do not always agree with 100% (like some trends to me are not always relevant) but I look at every one of your write ups and almost always pick up something very useful.
GL!
(again, unlike some posters with no write-ups that I find are not making their picks with true justification, Mistaflava puts himself "out there" for criticism and take the heat when he loses... and again, some posters who do not provide write ups at all I have inquired to them and they satisfied me that they were looking into their picks in depth with experienced know how so I look at their picks, but some that I inquired did not answer or answered with little or no substance, clearly no experties, so I do not even look at their stuff anymore)
If I was to sum up this thread since I last posted with one word it would have to be "WOW"!
Incredible. Thank you for all the love, that was insane. Honestly I never respond to negative comments (and they don't bother me) or "haters" on here unless it's constructive criticism or someone who disagrees with a game but I felt the need to ask why anyone even bothers? If you don't like me or my style or my picks or way of posting just don't read, don't tail, don't follow, don't care. Some do and they are the ones who come in here and read + discuss.
Nonetheless, love the community here at the RX and the great members that post and thanks again for all the love.
Onto tonight's game...
adding...
Monday, October 14
Detroit Lions +3.5 (10 Units)
The Detroit Lions have had an entire weeks off (and an extra few days) coming into this game to get healthy and ready for a big showdown with the Packers. I think the majority already forgot about the Lions and their near win against the Kansas City Chiefs before their bye week. The Lions actually outyarded the Chiefs by 9 total yards in that game. How about their games on the road this season? Sure they're winless but they went to Arizona and outyarded the Cardinals by 90 total yards in a 27-27 tie and they went to Philadelphia as +4 point road underdog and beat the Eagles 27-24. This team is looking more and more like the real deal. They come into this game averaging 23.3 points per game in their last three games on 357.7 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play. The Packers defense, after starting the season off so well, has allowed 24.7 points per game in their last three games and allowed 403 total yards and 6.3 yards per play in those games. That's not good defense. After a very slow start to the year the Lions running game finally got going against KC (RB Kerryon Johnson ran for 125 on 4.8 yards per carry) and that's bad news for Green Bay who have allowed 149 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry their last three games. That's in the bottom 5 of the NFL for that time span. In the air QB Matthew Stafford has completed 63.5% of his passes for 235.7 passing yards and 7.4 yards per play with an average QB Rating of 97.9 in those games. The Packers pass D is their strength but in their last three games they have allowed 254 passing yards per game on 7.6 yards per pass attempt and opposing QB's (Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz and Joe Flacco) completed 63.0% of their passes in those games with an average QB Rating of 86.3. The one big problem most of those QB's had was the Green Bay pass rush (9 sacks in last three games) but the Lions offensive line is underrated and Stafford for as much as he drops back and slings the ball, has been sacked only 4 times in their last three games. The Packers secondary has also made a habit of picking off balls (4 interceptions in last three games) but Stafford has been great with the ball in 2019. My big issues with this Packers D is their 3rd down defense (46.9%) and their Red Zone defense (touchdowns being scored 70% of the time) in their last three games. The Lions offense is rolling right now and they'll make the Packers pay. They haven't forgotten the loss to KC at home and have actually had two weeks to sit on it and want more.
The Green Bay Packers have probably hit a point in their season where they wish they had a BYE Week. Sure they are coming off an impressive 34-24 win in Dallas last weekend but after seeing the Cowboys and how bad they have been he last few games, is that win worth all that much? Even less so when you consider that DALLAS OUTYARDED GREEN BAY by 228 total yards in that game and still lost by 10 points. Jesus. Nonetheless, despite the strong start to the season the Packers have now been outyarded in 3 of their 5 games and face a tough Detroit opponent who just outyarded the Kansas City Chiefs before their bye week. The Packers are still scoring big time points and averaging 29.3 points per game in their last three games on 379.3 total yards of offense and 6.1 yards per play in those games. Detroit's defense is not much better than Green Bay's and they have allowed 22.7 points per game in their last three games on 411.7 total yards of offense and 6.4 yards per play. So this is going to be a shootout or sorts right? Here is where I think this game is won by Detroit. The running game of Green Bay (3.8 yards per carry in their last three) matches the running game of Detroit and the weak run defense of the Packers is matched by the weak run defense of the Lions (allowed 4.8 yards per carry in last three games). In the air is where I have found some discrepancies. QB Aaron Rodgers seems to be slowing down a little bit and he will be without star WR Devante Adams tonight and WR Marques Valdes-Scantling was hurt against Dallas, had only one reception and might sit tonight. If he plays he has some kind of calf/hamstring issue. That leaves the Packers thin in the air. Also adding to the fun for them, Lions standout CB Darius Slay is back in the lineup after missing the KC game. This Lions pass defense has allowed their last three opponent QBs (Patrick Mahomes, Carson Wentz and Phillip Rivers) to complete only 56.1% of their passes for 7.4 yards per pass attempt with an average QB Rating of only 82.1 in those games. Not great but not bad at all. The Lions don't bring much pressure but they are tremendous in coverage and will frustrate Rodgers tonight. In their last three games this defense has forced 6 fumbles, recovered 6 fumbles and have allowed opponents to score touchdowns only 58.3% of the time in the Red Zone. That's huge tonight in a game where I see points being scored. The Lions 3rd down defense has been an issue but Green Bay is converting only 34.4% of their third down chances in the last three games. The Lions defense is not great but they are good and they get Slay back tonight.
You have to love divisional games on Monday Night Football. Obviously after a rough weekend for bettors the betting public will be taking the obvious play on the Packers but this is the most competitive I have seen the Lions on both sides of the ball in years and they come into this game on a two game win streak at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. Look back at history and you will see that Detroit has always been good off bye weeks. Matt Stafford more specifically who is 6-1 ATS in his last seven games coming off a BYE Week. The Lions are also 5-1 ATS in their last six road games versus a team with a record of .500 or better at home and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. For all those thinking Aaron Rodgers is great on Monday Nights you need to know that Green Bay is only 2-5 ATS in their last seven Monday Night Games and they come into this game 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games versus NFC North. The Lions come into this game having won two straight and Lambeau and they are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings overall. We are starting to see a changing of the guard in the NFL the last few weeks with the Cowboys, Chiefs and Rams all going 0-8 while teams like San Francisco are taking over. Can the Lions be next? A win tonight would answer that question. I'm calling for the Lions to win this straight up in a thriller.
Trend of the Game: Matthew Stafford is 6-1 ATS in his last seven games coming off a BYE Week.
Detroit 34, Green Bay 24
GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE TONIGHT!!!
:toast:
Incredible. Thank you for all the love, that was insane. Honestly I never respond to negative comments (and they don't bother me) or "haters" on here unless it's constructive criticism or someone who disagrees with a game but I felt the need to ask why anyone even bothers? If you don't like me or my style or my picks or way of posting just don't read, don't tail, don't follow, don't care. Some do and they are the ones who come in here and read + discuss.
Nonetheless, love the community here at the RX and the great members that post and thanks again for all the love.
Onto tonight's game...
adding...
Monday, October 14
Detroit Lions +3.5 (10 Units)
The Detroit Lions have had an entire weeks off (and an extra few days) coming into this game to get healthy and ready for a big showdown with the Packers. I think the majority already forgot about the Lions and their near win against the Kansas City Chiefs before their bye week. The Lions actually outyarded the Chiefs by 9 total yards in that game. How about their games on the road this season? Sure they're winless but they went to Arizona and outyarded the Cardinals by 90 total yards in a 27-27 tie and they went to Philadelphia as +4 point road underdog and beat the Eagles 27-24. This team is looking more and more like the real deal. They come into this game averaging 23.3 points per game in their last three games on 357.7 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play. The Packers defense, after starting the season off so well, has allowed 24.7 points per game in their last three games and allowed 403 total yards and 6.3 yards per play in those games. That's not good defense. After a very slow start to the year the Lions running game finally got going against KC (RB Kerryon Johnson ran for 125 on 4.8 yards per carry) and that's bad news for Green Bay who have allowed 149 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry their last three games. That's in the bottom 5 of the NFL for that time span. In the air QB Matthew Stafford has completed 63.5% of his passes for 235.7 passing yards and 7.4 yards per play with an average QB Rating of 97.9 in those games. The Packers pass D is their strength but in their last three games they have allowed 254 passing yards per game on 7.6 yards per pass attempt and opposing QB's (Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz and Joe Flacco) completed 63.0% of their passes in those games with an average QB Rating of 86.3. The one big problem most of those QB's had was the Green Bay pass rush (9 sacks in last three games) but the Lions offensive line is underrated and Stafford for as much as he drops back and slings the ball, has been sacked only 4 times in their last three games. The Packers secondary has also made a habit of picking off balls (4 interceptions in last three games) but Stafford has been great with the ball in 2019. My big issues with this Packers D is their 3rd down defense (46.9%) and their Red Zone defense (touchdowns being scored 70% of the time) in their last three games. The Lions offense is rolling right now and they'll make the Packers pay. They haven't forgotten the loss to KC at home and have actually had two weeks to sit on it and want more.
The Green Bay Packers have probably hit a point in their season where they wish they had a BYE Week. Sure they are coming off an impressive 34-24 win in Dallas last weekend but after seeing the Cowboys and how bad they have been he last few games, is that win worth all that much? Even less so when you consider that DALLAS OUTYARDED GREEN BAY by 228 total yards in that game and still lost by 10 points. Jesus. Nonetheless, despite the strong start to the season the Packers have now been outyarded in 3 of their 5 games and face a tough Detroit opponent who just outyarded the Kansas City Chiefs before their bye week. The Packers are still scoring big time points and averaging 29.3 points per game in their last three games on 379.3 total yards of offense and 6.1 yards per play in those games. Detroit's defense is not much better than Green Bay's and they have allowed 22.7 points per game in their last three games on 411.7 total yards of offense and 6.4 yards per play. So this is going to be a shootout or sorts right? Here is where I think this game is won by Detroit. The running game of Green Bay (3.8 yards per carry in their last three) matches the running game of Detroit and the weak run defense of the Packers is matched by the weak run defense of the Lions (allowed 4.8 yards per carry in last three games). In the air is where I have found some discrepancies. QB Aaron Rodgers seems to be slowing down a little bit and he will be without star WR Devante Adams tonight and WR Marques Valdes-Scantling was hurt against Dallas, had only one reception and might sit tonight. If he plays he has some kind of calf/hamstring issue. That leaves the Packers thin in the air. Also adding to the fun for them, Lions standout CB Darius Slay is back in the lineup after missing the KC game. This Lions pass defense has allowed their last three opponent QBs (Patrick Mahomes, Carson Wentz and Phillip Rivers) to complete only 56.1% of their passes for 7.4 yards per pass attempt with an average QB Rating of only 82.1 in those games. Not great but not bad at all. The Lions don't bring much pressure but they are tremendous in coverage and will frustrate Rodgers tonight. In their last three games this defense has forced 6 fumbles, recovered 6 fumbles and have allowed opponents to score touchdowns only 58.3% of the time in the Red Zone. That's huge tonight in a game where I see points being scored. The Lions 3rd down defense has been an issue but Green Bay is converting only 34.4% of their third down chances in the last three games. The Lions defense is not great but they are good and they get Slay back tonight.
You have to love divisional games on Monday Night Football. Obviously after a rough weekend for bettors the betting public will be taking the obvious play on the Packers but this is the most competitive I have seen the Lions on both sides of the ball in years and they come into this game on a two game win streak at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. Look back at history and you will see that Detroit has always been good off bye weeks. Matt Stafford more specifically who is 6-1 ATS in his last seven games coming off a BYE Week. The Lions are also 5-1 ATS in their last six road games versus a team with a record of .500 or better at home and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. For all those thinking Aaron Rodgers is great on Monday Nights you need to know that Green Bay is only 2-5 ATS in their last seven Monday Night Games and they come into this game 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games versus NFC North. The Lions come into this game having won two straight and Lambeau and they are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings overall. We are starting to see a changing of the guard in the NFL the last few weeks with the Cowboys, Chiefs and Rams all going 0-8 while teams like San Francisco are taking over. Can the Lions be next? A win tonight would answer that question. I'm calling for the Lions to win this straight up in a thriller.
Trend of the Game: Matthew Stafford is 6-1 ATS in his last seven games coming off a BYE Week.
Detroit 34, Green Bay 24
GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE TONIGHT!!!
:toast:
Ignore the nonsense Flava even tho there seems to be a lot of it here lately, appreciate your write ups and the time you take to post your plays and bring insight to the plays whether I’m on your side or opposite you’re a must read and respect your insights. Keep up the good work and BOL with your action
Wow what a week on and off the field!
NFL Week 6 Recap
NY Giants +17
Carolina -2.5 ***PLAY OF THE MORNING***
Minnesota -3.5
Baltimore -10.5
Miami +4.5
NY Jets +7.5
LA Rams -3 ***PLAY OF THE AFTERNOON***
Pittsburgh +6 ***PLAY OF THE YEAR***
Detroit +3.5
6-3 ATS (+105.50 Units) this week!
I take a bit of solace in the Giants and Ravens getting backdoored but I lucked out on the Dolphins who also pulled the ultimate backdoor. That's how the dice rolls in football. Back at it again on Wednesday with some college football! Congrats to all winners in College and NFL this week.
:toast:
NFL Week 6 Recap
NY Giants +17
Carolina -2.5 ***PLAY OF THE MORNING***
Minnesota -3.5
Baltimore -10.5
Miami +4.5
NY Jets +7.5
LA Rams -3 ***PLAY OF THE AFTERNOON***
Pittsburgh +6 ***PLAY OF THE YEAR***
Detroit +3.5
6-3 ATS (+105.50 Units) this week!
I take a bit of solace in the Giants and Ravens getting backdoored but I lucked out on the Dolphins who also pulled the ultimate backdoor. That's how the dice rolls in football. Back at it again on Wednesday with some college football! Congrats to all winners in College and NFL this week.
:toast:
Good Job Mistaflava
Thanks Mista. BOL. With the Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers all giving me the same feeling this past week (and seeing what happened to them), I might just hold off on this.
All 3 of those teams have bad defenses and defense is what allows for consistency in the nfl most times. There is a reason the two undefeated teams have the best defenses and have some of the best ATS spread records.
All 3 of those teams have bad defenses and defense is what allows for consistency in the nfl most times. There is a reason the two undefeated teams have the best defenses and have some of the best ATS spread records.
