2018 MistaFlava NFL Record: 0-0 ATS (+0.00 Units)
I did not post here last week but looking to kick things off with a big Week 2 Sunday after going 5-3 ATS in college football yesterday (not bad for my dreadful first two weeks which has become a yearly tradition). I will be posting plays and writeups here for the most part.
Good luck to everyone this season!
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Sunday, September 16
Tennessee Titans +3.5 (10 Units)
Both teams are struggling right now and this is no more than a field goal game at best. The Texans are prime for a bounce back game based on their bad performance last week in New England but I'm not convinced by anything I have seen from their offense. The Texans are one of the biggest public plays this week with 70% or more of public wagers in Vegas coming in on the road faves. That's always a big no-no in the NFL. The Texans managed only 4.8 yards of offense last week, turned the ball over twice and allowed 3 sacks while converting only 18% of their third down chances.
The Tennessee Titans are not a good football team but they can compete at home in this one against another struggling team. The Titans managed 5.0 yards per play last week in Miami, they allowed 0 sacks on their QB's and they converted 42.9% of their third down chances. They were the more effective offense of these two teams and as long as Marcus Mariota can remain somewhat healthy and keep the gameplan basic in this one, he is going to get some yards and keep this game close. These two teams know each other well.
Houston is now on a streak of 0-6 ATS in their last six regular season games and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus AFC opponents. Tennessee on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in their last six games coming off a straight up loss and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games. This is a pretty good spot and the home team has gone 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. I think with so many people on Houston and Tennessee not playing that poorly (outside of the 3 interceptions) last weekend, the Titans are the play here.
Trend of the Game: Houston is 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating 150+ rushing yards in their previous game.
Tennessee 20, Houston 17
more to come...
I did not post here last week but looking to kick things off with a big Week 2 Sunday after going 5-3 ATS in college football yesterday (not bad for my dreadful first two weeks which has become a yearly tradition). I will be posting plays and writeups here for the most part.
Good luck to everyone this season!
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Sunday, September 16
Tennessee Titans +3.5 (10 Units)
Both teams are struggling right now and this is no more than a field goal game at best. The Texans are prime for a bounce back game based on their bad performance last week in New England but I'm not convinced by anything I have seen from their offense. The Texans are one of the biggest public plays this week with 70% or more of public wagers in Vegas coming in on the road faves. That's always a big no-no in the NFL. The Texans managed only 4.8 yards of offense last week, turned the ball over twice and allowed 3 sacks while converting only 18% of their third down chances.
The Tennessee Titans are not a good football team but they can compete at home in this one against another struggling team. The Titans managed 5.0 yards per play last week in Miami, they allowed 0 sacks on their QB's and they converted 42.9% of their third down chances. They were the more effective offense of these two teams and as long as Marcus Mariota can remain somewhat healthy and keep the gameplan basic in this one, he is going to get some yards and keep this game close. These two teams know each other well.
Houston is now on a streak of 0-6 ATS in their last six regular season games and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus AFC opponents. Tennessee on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in their last six games coming off a straight up loss and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games. This is a pretty good spot and the home team has gone 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. I think with so many people on Houston and Tennessee not playing that poorly (outside of the 3 interceptions) last weekend, the Titans are the play here.
Trend of the Game: Houston is 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating 150+ rushing yards in their previous game.
Tennessee 20, Houston 17
more to come...