MistaFlava's NFL Divisional Sunday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Playoffs: 5-1 ATS (+52.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Record: 45-30-3 ATS (+345.50 Units)

Another great football betting day for me as I swept the board with a 2-0 ATS performance yesterday with Arizona and Baltimore. I am starting to catch serious fire having gone back to an old style of capping where I go more with my gut than I go with stats. I am 7-2 ATS since last Saturday in football bets with my 100 UNIT POWER PLAY ON OHIO STATE +8 coming through on Monday. I also won on Tulsa -3 over Ball State and even though I lost my wager on the BCS Championship Game with Oklahoma +5, I still think I was on the right side of that thing and that will sting for some time now. I am heading into the CBB, NBA and MLB seasons with a full head of steam and things have really turned around for me the last few weeks. The NFL Playoffs have always been huge for me and I have always done well. I went 10-1 ATS in the 2005 NFL Playoffs and have never looked back since. Good Luck to all this weekend and let's win some money guys!

The goal for the playoffs is to hit 70% of my plays or hit the 50 Unit mark.


1 Unit = $100


Week 1: 2-1 ATS (+9.50 Units)
Week 2: 1-3-1 ATS (-12.00 Units)
Week 3: ---No Plays---
Week 4: 3-2 ATS (+68.50 Units)
Week 5: 5-1 ATS (+44.00 Units)
Week 6: ---No Plays---
Week 7: 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units)
Week 8: 3-2-1 ATS (+43.00 Units)
Week 9: ---No Plays---
Week 10: ---No Plays---
Week 11: 3-4 ATS (+15.00 Units)
Week 12: 4-4 ATS (-10.00 Units)
Week 13: 6-3 ATS (+28.00 Units)
Week 14: 3-2 ATS (+13.50 Units)
Week 15: 3-2-1 ATS (+34.00 Units)
Week 16: 5-4 ATS (+24.50 Units)
Week 17: ---No Plays---
Wildcard: 3-1 ATS (+17.50 Units)
Divisional: 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units)


You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I can handle criticism, I am who I am and it's time to get back to a winning week. Good Luck to all this week!

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Sunday, January 11
​

NFC DIVISIONAL #1

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View attachment 6223Philadelphia Eagles +4 (10 Units) View attachment 6222

The Philadelphia Eagles were absolute nobodies just a little over a month ago and oh my how things have changed since those days. McNabb was being benched in place of QB Kevin Kolb and it looked like all hell was breaking loose (with the end of both Reid and McNabb near in Philadelphia) when Donovan expressed his displeasure with the benching. However, this team found a way to get things together, they won the games they had to win and most importantly of all, they won their final regular season game in overly impressive fashion which says and does a lot for a team heading into the playoffs. The Eagles finished with two less wins than the Giants but they did walk into New York just a few weeks before the end of the regular season and find a way to beat the Giants in a must-win game if they wanted to play in the playoffs. Despite the blunder on the road against Washington in the second last weekend of the season, the Eagles bounced back nicely and rocked the socks off Dallas making that 4 wins in their last 5 games of the season to make it into the post-season for the first time since that Super Bowl season when Terrell Owens was still around. A lot of people doubted Philadelphia could walk into Minnesota as favorites and come away with a win last week but not only did the Eagles do that but they did it indoors on turf where they are not used to playing and where the home field advantage is much greater than it would be in say a game today in a stadium that McNabb and company hhave played in for quite a long time. I see a lot of heads turning when it comes to betting on the Eagles away from home because during the regular season they lost road games against Dallas, Chicago, Baltimore and Washington while recording road wins over Seattle, San Francisco and of course these Giants (that was their one and only meaningful win away from home this season). However, what I failed to mention is that 3 OF THE EAGLES 4 LOSSES ON THE ROAD THIS SEASON WERE BY 7 OR LESS POINTS WITH TWO OF THEM DECIDED BY 4 OR LESS POINTS. So the bottom line is that this team does not get blownout on the road and they keep games close enough to compete. With the way this team is playing though I don't see why anyone would go against them. The defense is clicking, McNabb is looking as good or better than he has in a very long time and the rest of the offense also seems to be making things happen. So now is the time for this team to possibly make a run at yet another Super Bowl against a somewhat overrated Giants team. Philadelphia comes into this game averaging 27.6 points per game on grassy surfaces this season (I'm telling you these guys are better on grass) and in those games they have managed to also average 351.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play in those games. They are going up against a Giants defense that has taken a turn for the worse the last few weeks and that has weakened as the season has progressed. I say that now because the Giants have allowed 22.7 points per game in their last three games and they have also allowed 330.7 total yards of offense per game in those games on an unusual 6.3 yards per play which means the Eagles offense really has a chance here. You can play well all season as a defense but when things are not going well they are not going well and that seems to be where the Giants are at right now. On the ground, it's weird to see it but Andy Reid finally decided to start using more running plays as part of his offense and wow would you look at that, it seems to be working well for him now that RB Brian Westbrook is completely healthy. Westbrook and company still don't run all that much but they do average 4.1 yards per carry on grass this season and have averaged 111.9 rushing yards per game in those very same games. That's bad news for a Giants defense that has been torched for 4.4 yards per carry in their last three games and that in those same games have allowed 122.7 rushing yards per game (something they didn't have too many problems with earlier this season). In the air, the revamped Donovan McNabb has looked pretty damn good as he has completed 59.6% of his passes on the grass surfaces this season and averages 6.5 yards per pass attempt. The fact that a rookie (WR Desean Jackson) is his only real deep ball threat makes it more difficult for McNabb to unload that strong arm but who cares, he's played a lot better since keeping his completions shorter and making sure he moves chains instead of throwing deep TD bombs. The Giants secondary has sucked as of late as they have allowed their last three opponents to complete 62.7% of their passes for 8.3 yards per pass attempt so as much as McNbabb has kept things short this season, the downfield patters are going to be wide open for the emering superstar Jackson to take and burn this Giants secondary with. Jackson has already shown that he can be a big game player in big time games and today should be no different. In those games played on grass this season, McNabb had a QB Rating of 80.2 which is not all that bad and he was sacked 1.5 times per game while throwing 1.1 interceptions per game (something common with him this season). However, he has thrown only one interception his last three games and the Giants secondary has come down with only 1 interception in their last three games having also recorded 6 sacks in those games. As long as McNabb can read the pressure and avoid the sacks he should have plenty of time for some big completions. Despite quite a few fumbles this season the Eagles need to watch the ball even if they are going up against a Giants defense that seems to have really given up and are not doing much with their 0 fumble recoveries in the last three games. If your defense is not making plays, I don't know how you can win games. What bothers me the most about this defense is how easily things have come for othe r teams. The Eagles score touchdowns only 51.7% of the time in the RedZone this season when playing on grass surfaces but today they get to play against a Giants defense that has allowed touchdowns in a whopping 80% of their last three opponents trips to the RedZone and that could be deadly in a game like this today. Not only can the Eagles put this away with touchdown but the Eagles have converted 43.1% of their third down chances on grass this season and the Giants last three opponents were bale to convert 44.4% of the time on third downs in their last three games. Getting off to a quick start is always important in the playoffs because with all the pressure and all the madness you don't want to be the team trailing late in the game that needs to score a touchdown in the fourth quarter to either win or tie the game. On that note, Philadelphia averages 15.8 points per first half when playing on grass this season and they have done a good job taking leads and never looking back. However, taking a lead might be easy in this game because the Giants defense has sucked in the first half of games lately and they have allowed 12.6 points per first half in their last three games. Like I was saying before, the Giants RedZone defense is a mess as they have forced only three field goal tries in their last three games. The key to this game for the Eagles is to continue running the ball on a lot more plays than they are used to only to have McNabb stretch the field enough to give him team a shot. The Giants are not playing well on the defensive side of things and that should leave the door wide open for some big plays to Desean Jackson and some big plays on dump off passes to guys like Westbrook and Buckhalter. McNabb and Reid have not been through all this only to come in here and lose this game. I expect both of them to be red hot today as the Eagles reach the NFC Conference Championship next weekend.

The New York Giants are a team I would have no problem backing and a team I have had no problem backing all season but now that things are not going as well as they once have, I think it's time to fade them and wish them all the best in the off-season, an off-season that is surely going to be interesting after all the things that have happened around here since last season's Super Bowl win. Let's recap things a little bit here. Sure the Giants are 12-4 SU heading into the post season and sure they have made us all a lot of money this season with their 12-4 ATS mark in those games but things started falling apart early in the season and although they didn't break, you know they took a toll on the performance of this team. Losing TE Jeremy Shockey and a bunch of other players from the Super Bowl winning team did not help much but the Giants did not look any different and they played just as well if not better than last season. A few rift and rafts here and there were fine but it was the Plaxico Burress incident that has me thinking that the locker room is just not the same this year for the Giants as it was during their underdog run to the championship just one season ago. I say that because not only is Burress a superstar WR in this league and not only is he one of the best wide receivers in this league but he was also QB Eli Manning's go-to guy in the crunch and when this team needed big plays and to have him to do something so stupid with the help of another teammates...that surely did some bad things to the team morale and I think these guys still reap the effects of that incident. The Giants went 6-2 ATS at home this season with one of their only losses coming less than a month ago against these same Eagles. Sadly enough, of their 8 home games this season the Giants did not play against a playoff bound team at home until Week 11 when Baltimore came to town and in the end they played against only three playoff bound teams at home all season with one of those games being against the Eagles. The other two games were against Baltimore (a 30-10 home blowout win) and against Carolina (a game they needed overtime to win on a touchdown, one of my luckiest spread covers ever as the Giants went for the TD in overtime). So other than beating Dallas, San Francisco, Seattle, Washington and Cincinnati (all non playoff opponents) this team really didn't have to play against much competion at home and when they did, it wasn't easy at all now was it. The Giants come into this game averaging 24.3 points per game in their last three games to end the regular season and in those games their offense sucked and they managed only 309.3 total yards of offense per game and only 5.3 yards per play in those games. Now I know the Eagles defense is tired and I know how tough they have had it but these guys are an experienced bunch led by one of the toughest sons of bitches in the NFL Brian Dawkins and they have allowed only 10.0 points per game in their last three games somehow. In those games this defense has been relentless and they have allowed only 282.7 total yards of offense per game and have allowed only 4.4 yards per play so its hard to go against a defense that is playing so well right now. On the ground, the Giants have one of the most dangerous RB duos in the NFL with Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward each rushing for over 1000 yards this season and nothing has slowed these guys down the last three games as the Giants average 169.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have done that by also averaging 5.8 yards per carry in those games. The Eagles don't mind allowing other teams to run because they know their offense is good enough to givd them leads and that means eventually the other teams are going to have to start moving the ball through the air. So the fact that the Eagles have allowed 119.0 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry in their last three games played means nothing to me considering those games were against RB Adrian Peterson, RB Marian Barber and RB Clinton Portis. To allow onl 119.0 rushing yards per game against those three is something pretty damn good if you ask me and this defense will definitely once again be up to the task against the Giants dynamic (and rather large) duo. In the air, QB Eli Manning did not play the full game against the Vikings because the Giants already had things all locked up but in his last three games he has managed to complete only 58.7% of his passes for a paltry 5.7 yards per pass attempt. Now more than ever we are seeing how much the Giants actually miss Burress and Shockey in this offense because their go to guys are getting old and Domenik Hixon despite being a good player is not the guy you want to have as your #1 receiver in a run for the Super Bowl. If you thought things were bad for Eli before this game, you wait until he has to go up against an Eagles secondary that has been stout the last three games and that has allowed opponents to complete only 51.4% in those games for only 4.5 yards per pass attempt. That means no big plays, no huge passes downfield and as long as the Eagles can avoid getting beat by plays of 20+ yards, they should have no problems winning and covering the spread in this game. Because the Giants don't have any deep threats now that Burress is out, I trust that the Eagles can stack the box a little bit more and try some contain packages on both Ward and Jacobs that would force Eli into making mitsakes here. I mean his QB Rating is only 73.0 the last three games and he has to go up against an Eagles defense that held Jason Campbell, Tony Romo and Tavaris Jackskson to a combined QB Rating of only 56.0 in their last three games which is pretty damn good despite those three not being elite QB's in this league. Manning has thrown 2 interceptions in his last three games while being sacked a whopping 13 times in those three games. What the hell is the offensive line doing anyways? You can't let the Eagles know that because they love to blitz and they are going to come after Eli with everything they have as they have 8 sacks in their last three games and have done a good job forcing other QB's to make mistakes. The Giants have been a lucky bunch the last three games as they have fumbled the ball 4 times but held on all four times and have not lost a fumble in almost over a month. However, when you play with fire you are going to get burned guys and the Eagles, one of the most aggressive tackling teams in the NFL this season, have recovered 5 fumbles in their last three games and have managed to force 7 fumbles in those very same games. The Giants, much like other good teams, will always be decent on third downs as they have converted 39.0% of the time in their last three games and are going up against an Eagles defense that has allowed their last three opponents to convert 38.3% of the time. Most importantly of all however is the fact that PHILADELPHIA HAS ALLOWED TOUCHDOWNS ONLY 28.6% OF THE TIME INSIDE THE REDZONE IN THEIR LAST THREE GAMES and if the Giants can only kick field goals in this game, they are going to be in serious trouble. It's not like Eli is lighting it up from inside the RedZone as the Giants have scored touchdowns only 44.4% of the time from in there the last three games, having to settle for a whopping 9 field goal attempts in those games. The Philadelphia defense has ensured that their team has a half time lead for quite some time now and in their last three games, this Brian Dawkins led unit has allowed only 6.7 points per first half and that should once again promise a lead because the Giants average only 8.3 points per first half in their last three games. The Giants can run the ball all day and probably have success but as mentioned in the above, something has gone wrong for this team in the RedZone and they have settled for way too many field goals instead of touchdowns. The Eagles defense is one of the toughest to beat right now in the NFL and although I think this is going to be a back and forth kind of game between these two teams, I just don't see how the Eagles don't come up with huge plays on defense like they have been doing for weeks now in their team resurgence. EAGLES DEFENSE TO THE BANK!

I have now come to hate betting on favored teams coming out of that week long layoff because at this point in the season giving some of these guys an extra week to work with means an extra week to lose momentum, it means an extra week to sit around and relax and it means an extra week to probably get out of the swing of things which I am really not a fan of. There is no doubt in the world that the NY Giants are the best team in the NFL (well close to it) and that they have looked great in their quest for a re-peat performance this season despite all their off-field and on-field problems. Having said that the re-surgence of Donovan McNabb looks like something special and from what I can see the Eagles look like the surprise team out of the NFC this playoff season, had it not been for that Arizona team. PHILADELPHIA WAS HERE JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO AND THEY WON 20-14, much like ARIZONA HAD LOST BY ONLY 4 IN THEIR VISIT TO CAROLINA EARLIER IN THE YEAR. What else is there to say right now about this game? Philadelphia is the better team overall heading into this game, they have the mental edge of having won here just a few weeks ago and they are playing with such confidence behind their leader McNabb that I don't see anyone stopping them on their way to the Super Bowl (two Philly teams in one year???). Philadelphia is an impressive 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs, they are 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff games, Andy Reis is a master of Divisional Playoff Games when given the chance and this is McNabb's time to shine. The Giants on the other hand have not been a good home team against teams that play well on the road as they are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games at home versus a team with a winning road record. The underdog has been vicious in this series the last three or four years covering the spread in the last eight games (Underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings) and the road team has been just as good. McNabb is playing better than Eli right now and the Eagles are too experienced to not keep this game close today. Having said that, the Giants seem to always find a way to win games the cheap way and I see them winning this on a late field goal or by only a few points in somewhat of a shootout.As much as I don't bet on underdogs I don't think can win the game, Philly is too much to pass up here and they could very well win. EAT SOME SOUP DONOVAN AND SHOW US THE MONEY!

Trend of the Game: Philadelphia is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.


NY Giants 40, Philadelphia 38





:toast:





I will post the next game in a little bit if I can find the time in the next few hours as I have to go out for a bit and we just got pounded with yet another snow storm.
​

 

[chasereagle]

All that talk about the EAGLES D and you predict the G-men to put up 40!!! no way this game goes this high...

good write-up

24-13 EAGLES!!!!

 

[Cheddarforme]

Very nice write up I am gonna tail the Philly game don't see the score that high but I hope you're right 'cause that will blast past my parlay of 32 1/2 (over) BOL keep 'em rollin
Lets make that cheddar!:cripwalk:

 

[skate]

can u tell me who u like in pitt/s.d. game. i want to parley the two.thanx

 

[MistaFlava]

Alright so the first game is good to go and now I am about to bet on my PLAY OF THE DAY which may come as a surprise to some of you. I never in my lifetime thought I would be on all four underdogs in one Divisonal Playoff weekend because traditionally this weekend has belonged to the home teams but it is what it is and we need to keep cashing.

Sunday, January 11


AFC DIVISIONAL #2

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View attachment 6226 San Diego Chargers +6.5 (25 Units) View attachment 6227

***PLAY OF THE DAY***

The San Diego Chargers are one of the most annoying teams in the NFL but that's only because they won't go away and that's only because they got rid of Peyton Manning last week and we all wanted to see some games and even maybe a Super Bowl with the league MVP quarterbacking one of the teams. Well that's not going to happen thanks to a home win over the Colts last week and again momentum is huge heading into this game for the Chargers. This is yet another team that was completely dead in the water less than a month ago as they trailed the Denver Broncos by three games in the Division with only three games to go before that mini-miracle happened and the Chargers not only won their last three games but they watched Denver completely collapse and lose their last three games to completely shakeup the Division. So it's weird that a team like San Diego who went only 8-8 SU this past season go into the post-season but they are growing as the weeks go and this team, with a win here, could make this the most shocking NFL Divisional Weekend in history of the NFL with all the upsets. Let's make this straight, Ladainian Tomlinson is out and I capped this game with him being out for this game. IT DOESN'T MATTER IF YOU ASK ME!!! DARREN SPROLES IS A MINI-LT AND I CAN PROVE IT. SPROLES AVERAGES 5.4 YARDS PER CARRY, LT ONLY 3.8. LT HAD 421 RECEIVING YARDS THIS SEASON, SPROLES HAD 342 ON 23 LESS PASS COMPLETIONS WITH 4 MORE RECEIVING TOUCHDOWNS THAN LT. So can we stop making it such a big deal that Tomlinson is out because it's not that big a deal and Sproles is actually more important to this offense than Tomlinson right now and that's a known fact. Hold on did I mention that Sproles is also the #1 punt returner at 11.3 yards per return and #1 kickoff returner on this team at 25.9 yards per kickoff return? You have to keep in mind that San Diego played pretty damn well on the road this season going to Miami and losing by seven points, going to England barely losing to New Orleans, coming here to Pittsburgh and losing by only 1 and finally their most impressive road win of the season coming in a 41-24 season crushing win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (it was because of that loss that the Bucs missed the post-season). San Diego comes into this game averaging a whopping 38.7 points per game in their last three games and everything they do in this game is going to have to come against one of the NFL's top defenses in Pittsburgh. In their last three games though the Chargers have the top offense in the NFL as they have averaged 415.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.6 yards per play. Pittsburgh has the #1 defense in the NFL this past season and they have allowed only 14.8 points per game this season in games played on a grassy surface. In those games, they have allowed opponents to average only 236.4 total yards of offense per game and only 4.1 yards per play in those games. This is going to be a cold game and the Chargers are not used to this crap but they can adjust. On the ground, Sproles is going to be the lone back in this game and that is just fine by him because he has been oustanding the last three games and has led this team to 182.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 5.4 yards per carry in those games. Despite having the #1 defense in the NFL, the Steelers have the #2 run defense but they have still been good despite allowing 3.7 yards per carry in their last three games and allowing more than 100 rushing yards per game in those games. So we all know that running the ball is not going to work in this game for the Chargers and that's just fine because they do have quite a few plays they can counter that with in this game. Sproles is an evasive back and with the threat of Rivers passing all over this defense, I'm pretty sure the Chargers can find a way to open some of those gaps and create some big plays while in run formation. In the air, QB Philip Rivers has completed 64.4% of his passes the last three games for 8.0 yards per pass attempt and he has now shown that he has more than one deep threat on this Chargers team. I don't think the Chargers can get much done in the air in terms of huge passing plays because the Steelers keep everyting close and don't usually allow big passing plays downfield. However, the Steelers have allowed opposing QB's to complete 57.2% of their passes on grass surfaces this season and in those games they have allowed only 4.9 yards per pass attempt which once again confirms that no big plays are going to be made against this Steelers defense when it comes to the passing game. Can anyone say dumpoff passes to Sproles? Rivers has a QB Rating of 107.4 in his last three games and he has been sacked only 3 times in those games while throwing only 1 interceptions (quite the change from the way he was playing earlier this season). Surprisingly enough the Steelers have not generated the kind of pressure this season that they have in past seasons and despite the obvious 2.6 sacks per game they have averaged on grass surfaces this season, they have only 3 sacks in their last three games. You cannot just throw the ball anywhere against this defense because they will pick you off and do have 1.3 interceptions per game this season when playing on grass surfaces. Having said that, the one things the Steelers have not done well this season is aggressive tackling that forces turnovers as they have recovered 0 fumbles in their last three games and only 0.4 fumbles recovered per game on grass surfaces this season. San Diego has been a very disciplined team the last three games taking a grand total of only 9 penalties in those games for an average of only 35.7 penalty yards per game in those games and they have also been one of the best third down teams in the NFL during that time span converting on 52.6% of their third down chances in those games. I know it's tough to do anything against a Pittsburgh team that has allowed opponents on grass to convert only 33.8% of their third down chances this season but the Chargers have done it all the last three games and this is an offense playing with big time confidence right now so don't put it past them. They are also a perfect 100% when going for it on fourth down in those games and this same offense has scored touchdowns in a whopping 75.0% of their trips to the RedZone in the last three games, something that is going to make a huge huge difference in this game because if they can score even one or two touchdowns against this defense, in this weather and on this day, the Chargers are going to come out of this with the win. Opponents are scoring touchdowns only 33.7% of the time against the Steelers on grass when playing inside the RedZone this season but again I love the matchups of receivers versus DB's for the Chargers in this game and I see them scoring at least two touchdowns. Sproles has been just freak nasty on special teams this season and in his last three games he is averaging 26.9 yards per kickoff return and is averaging 19.0 yards per punt return which means he should give his team some pretty damn good field position in this game. San Diego has lost only one fumble in their last three games, they have turned it over only two times in those games and they are playing the best football I have seen them play in years which is why I really like them in this game here. How could you not want to back a team scoring 19.4 points per first half in their last three games which is exactly the team you want to have do that against the #1 defense in the NFL that have allowed 7.3 points per first half on grass surfaces this season? This is going to be all about running the ball with Sproles early and then using the one or two chances you have to find the deep ball against this Steeler secondary. The weather is going to be freezing but Rivers played at NC State, Vincent Jackson is from Colorado, Darren Sproles is from Iowa and Antonio Gates is from Michigan. CHARGERS IN A SHOCKER!!!

The Pittsburgh Steelers pride themselves in having the #1 defense in the NFL every season and once again this year, they managed to grab that title. However, that brings the question...how much has the AFC actually fallen off anyways? I mean the offenses in this conference are just horrendous these days and apart from that AFC West Conference, I just don't know who else can score points anymore. If there is one team however that can score points it is those Chargers despite the fact that the Steelers held them to only 10 points in their meeting here earlier this season. However this game comes down to coaching really. When two teams play each other in the same stadium in the same season, everything comes down to coaching and which coach can provide the best angles based on videotape from the first game and which coach can make the best adjustments for the second game. I'm sorry but Mike Tomlin is not that great of a coach and I never trust him in big game situations like this one. SURPRISE SURPRISE...EVERYONE ON THE STEELERS IS HEALTHY RIGHT NOW. Having said that, can you really trust a team that went only 4-4 ATS at home this season and that at times looked completely horrendous in wins and losses? I don't trust this team one bit and home field advantage does not make a difference for me. Pittsburgh won a bunch of games this season on nothing more than luck. Apart from their home opening blowout win over the Houston Texans, Pittsburgh needed overtime to beat Baltimore a few weekends later at home, they then lost to the NY Giants by seven in their following home game, then came the four point home loss to the Colts, then came the one point win over San Diego followed big three big home wins over Cleveland, Dallas and Cincinnati. So looking back on what Pittsburgh did at home this season, THE STEELERS WENT 0-4 ATS AT HOME THIS SEASON AGAINST TEAMS THAT ENDED UP MAKING THE PLAYOFFS (INDIANAPOLIS, SAN DIEGO, NY GIANTS AND BALTIMORE). Do I even need to continue writing anything about this game? Pittsburgh is one of the most overrated teams because of their garbage offense and I refuse to back them when favored by this many points against a team that made the playoffs. So what I am trying to get at here is that against good teams, Pittsburgh has not been good and backing them here would be a huge risk based on the fact that we know they cannot win big against decent teams (San Diego proved that already once this season). Pittsburgh comes into this game averaging only 19.3 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 351.3 total yards of offense per game in those games on 5.5 yards per play but will that be enough to advance in this game? I think not. Pittsburgh had the #20 ranked offense in the NFL this season which is why I can't believe oddsmakers have made them favored by this much in this game against a team that is scoring almost 40 points per game in their last three games. San Diego's defense is not playing lights out football nor have they all season with the loss of Shawne Merriman but in the end you have to back them based on their offense and not based on the fact that they have allowed 20.7 points per game in their last three games or the fact that they have allowed 374.0 total yards of offense per game in their last three games and have allowed 6.1 yards per play in those games. Can Pittsburgh take advantage of that they way Indianapolis and other teams could not? NOPE! On the ground, RB Willie Parker is ready to go but who the hell is Willie Parker anyways? He is so overrated and the offensive line of this team is not all that good. The Steelers have rushed for only 112.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games and they have done that on only 3.9 yards per carry in those games so if they plan on running the ball more than throwing the ball in this weather, they are going to have to do it a lot more effectively than they have the last three games. San Diego has allowed a whopping 4.5 yards per carry in their last three games but if they can grab an early lead in this game like they have done most of the season, Pittsburgh will not afford to run the ball and the Chargers will hold them to only 88.3 rushing yards per game like they did with their last three opponents. That puts even more pressure on QB Ben Roethlisberger who is always under scrutiny in Steelers Land with all the mistakes he makes and with his lack of winning big games since that Super Bowl win of two seasons ago. Big Ben has completed 60.7% of his passes the last three games for 6.7 yards per pass attempt in those games and something tells me he is going to move the chains in this game because the Chargers don't bring pressure, preferring to sit back and hold opponents to mininal yardage while avoiding big plays down the field. San Diego has allowed their last three opponents to complete 62.7% of their passes for 6.8 yards per pass attempt in those games. Having said that, this defense might want to bring some pressure in this game because the Steelers have allowed Big Ben to be sacked 8 times in the last three games and the Charges have played decent defense while recording only 2 sacks in their last three games. It's time to bring pressure and lots of it because when you pressure Big Ben he cannot make big plays and that's all that really matters to this defense anyways. With the pressure, Roethlisberger has thrown 3 interceptions in the last three games. Like I said before, if the Chargers can bring some heat in this game they are going to come up huge because with only 2 sacks in their last three games, they have still managed to come up with 4 interceptions in those games and have one of the most ball hawking defenses in the NFL with guys like Cromartie wanting to have a performance like his brothers yesterday (with the Arizona Cardinals). Big Ben has a QB Rating of only 78.3 the last three games which is a whopping 29.1 points lower than Rivers has in those same games and with the Chargers defense holding their last three QB opponents to a QB Rating of only 77.4, I think Big Ben is going to have some big time problems in this game. On top of throwing 3 interceptions in his last three games, Big Ben has to deal with the fact that Pittsburgh has fumbled 9 times in their last three games and they have lost four of those fumbles which is a huge problem. San Diego's defense has recovered only one fumble the last three games but if they can put pressure up front and tackle hard in this weather, there is no doubt in my mind that they are going to come up with some loose balls against a mistake prone Steelers team. Pittsburgh has been successful in those games despite their mistakes because they have converted 50.0% of their third down chances in those games and they will have success again today because San Diego has allowed their last three opponents to convert 40.5% of the time on third downs in their last three games. Having said that, I expect the Steelers to go all the way down to the RedZone quite a few times in this game but what can they do once they get there? In their last three games this team has scored touchdowns only 37.5% of the time once inside the RedZone and that's just not going to work in a game like today's where the Chargers are surely going to come up with those 1 or 2 big touchdown plays whether they be on defense or on offense. The Chargers have all the confidence in the world right now on both sides of the ball and although their defense doesn't match up with Pittsburgh, it does matchup with the Steelers offense who scored only 11 points against them in the first meeting. Pittsburgh has not scored a single point in the first quarter of a game the last three games and they have managed to score only 8.0 points per first half in their last three games but that doesn't really matter because the Chargers defense is playing their best football of the season and they have allowed only 8.7 points per first half in their last three games which should have them ahead going into the second half. I love the points here because Pittsburgh just can't beat good teams by a lot at home and San Diego is one of the hottest teams in the NFL having just beat a Peyton Manning offense that had won 9 straight games heading into the playoffs. WAIVE THOSE TOWELS ONE LAST TIME YOU ASSCLOWNS!

What the hell is the deal with the betting public this weekend? I love you guys. There have been no public teams to fade at all, we have had to work extra hard capping these games and the fact that the public has been on two or three underdogs this weekend means people are getting smarter. Well this game is no different as the consensus is split almost right down the middle and both teams have equal amounts of backers supporting them. I have always talked about only betting on an underdog if you think they can win the game and yes I still support that despite my play on the Eagles earlier in the day. Having said that, my PLAY OF THE DAY is on the Chargers to shock the world and win this game. I don't think a single West Coast team flew out East this season and managed to win an early 1:00pm game. Luckily for us, the schedule makers thought about that and they made sure this was the later of the two games as San Diego now has the luxury of playing at a normal time with the kickoff coming at 4:45pm this afternoon. I don't want to hear anymore of this cold weather garbage and how San Diego can't adapt to that because as mentioned before, their top players have all played in snow or cold weather as Rivers played at NC State, Vincent Jackson is from Colorado, Darren Sproles is from Iowa and Antonio Gates is from Michigan. PITTSBURGH WENT 1-6 ATS THIS SEASON AGAINST TEAMS THAT ENDED UP MAKING THE PLAYOFFS and believe me when I say that THIS IS PATHETIC! San Diego has been a cash making playoff team and we all saw that even in their loss to the Patriots last season where they covered the +14 in the AFC Conference Championship. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four playoff games, they are a whopping 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points in all games, they have covered the spread in 21 of their last 28 games as an underdog (with three pushes in there too) and they have covered the spread in 19 of their last 26 games versus AFC opponents. Pittsburgh could just screw me and play a crazy good game here but I don't see that happening and I think the Chargers will shock everyone with a win here. Their offense is too hot and the Steelers have played with fire one too many times this season at home against weaker opponents, why should that change here? It won't and the CHARGERS ARE HERE TO WIN!

Trend of the Game: San Diego is 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.



San Diego 23, Pittsburgh 20





:toast:
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[MistaFlava]

All that talk about the EAGLES D and you predict the G-men to put up 40!!! no way this game goes this high...

good write-up

24-13 EAGLES!!!!

again a bit wild on my prediction, should be more Giants 33-31 or maybe even 26-24 or something like that. GL, don't buy too much into my score predictions man.

 

[Peanut]

Mainly a lurker who enjoys this forum. My hat's off to you MF as I thoroughly enjoyed your write-ups of today's games. A sincere thank you for the time and effort you put into them. Your thoughts, stats, ideas, beliefs, etc. has certainly opened my eyes and will help me to make my final decisions easier. Keep up the good work!

P-man:aktion033

 

[DaKaty]

Smoke Em Babe ,... Just SMOKE EM!!!!

Thanks MrFlava - That means a good ole $100 2tm 6point teaser for me - Eagles +10 and Chargers +13 , since I lost yesterday on Both Tennessee and Carolina ($50 each game!)

Good Luck today , as they say, "If you got em , SMOKE EM!" and let's SMOKE EM Today ! , ...

 

[MistaFlava]

Thanks guys, Eagles looking good!

 

[POCKETPAIR]

thanks for post flava. on sd with you. do you think sd can score 14 points the whole game. i leaniong on that big. thanks for your time

 

[MistaFlava]

thanks for post flava. on sd with you. do you think sd can score 14 points the whole game. i leaniong on that big. thanks for your time

I thin SD has played well enough to score 2 TD's (one defensive) here and I think they have the coaching edge here meaning that the videotape use from the first game will be utilized a lot more effectively by the Chargers which means they score more than they did in the first game (10 points).

GL man

 

[JWinner17]

I'm with you on the Chargers Large... May go ahead take the moneyline and the +7. Also thinking about doing a 7pt teaser with the total... If I do the teaser, which over/under will have more value, over 30.5 or under 44.5?