MistaFlava's NBA Playoffs Thursday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis/6-1 ATS in the Playoffs)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2009 NBA Playoffs Record: 6-1 ATS (+54.00 Units)

MistaFlava's 2008-2009 NBA Record: 17-14 ATS (+21.50 Units)

Welcome to my 2008-2009 NBA Playoffs betting. I took a few months off to get a much better feeling for some of these teams and some of the way things are going to go this season. I think i'm a better college capper than I am NBA but I have done well in the past and I have won some large wagers over the years. I think this is the time to catch some good lines because many teams are making changes and many teams are having injury problems. I recommend keeping all wagers small for now and then increasing as the season moves along and as oddsmakers start to drop off a bit.

I took the regular season off but the playoffs are the time to have money on some of these games because these guys actually give a shit at this time of the year.

1 Unit = $100

You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. When things are not going well I don't just sit there and watch, I take action and make myself better. Good Luck to all this week!

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Thursday, April 23


Eastern Conference Quarterfinals - Game 3


View attachment 7075 Chicago Bulls -3 (10 Units) View attachment 7074

The Boston Celtics, last season's defending World Champions, are on in trouble and I don't mean 'we are having problems' kind of trouble, I mean the kind of trouble where they are very close to being done in this series and the odds for this game are a very good reflection of that. Sure the series is tied at 1-1 and Boston could very well get things together in time to win a game in Chicago and give themselves a fighting chance but from what I have seen this team is a little bit overwhelmed with the Kevin Garnett injury and they have yet to find their championship groove without him. What probably is toughest for the Celtics is knowing that KG is not coming back in this series let alone in the playoffs (which is quite possible) and psychologically that has taken the Celtics right out of this thing. Leon Powe who averages 7.7 points per game for the Celtics this season is also out for the remainder of the playoffs which leaves the Celtics with some serious size issues up front and some depth issues off the bench. Rajon Rondo, the x-factor for the Celtics in their Championship run of 2008, has a bad ankle and is questionable tonight although he will probably play. I was on the Celtics quite a few times last season in the playoffs when they were underdogs and those were usually good bets but injuries are going to play a huge factor in the outcome of this series. The Celtics managed to score 100 points in Game 2 of this series but the last 13 times they have scored 100+ points in a game, they have gone 4-9 ATS in their very next game and I really don't like that. It also has to be know that Boston has covered the spread in only 2 of their last 7 Eastern Conference Quarterfinal games over the last two seasons, they are 0-2 ATS in this series right now and they are now 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus NBA Central Division opponents. The Celtics are not good coming off days off as they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games played on 2 days rest and it also has to be mentioned that Boston is only 2-5 ATS in their last seven playoff games as an underdog of 0.5 to 5 points. The Celtics just don't have the same team chemistry as last year without Garnett coming up with big rebounds and scoring big baskets and now that a few more guys have gone down with injuries, I just don't think they stand a chance in this game with this home crowd going nuts. Fade the Celtics for now.

The Chicago 'Baby' Bulls have impressed just about everyone who has watched them play this post-season and although I was not on the Bulls in either Game 1 or Game 2 of this series as they went 2-0 ATS and came away with a road win to take control of this series, I am definitely not missing the boat this time around. Sure the line looks a bit weird to some because nobody ever imagined the Bulls would be favored in any of the games this series but the line is appropriate because apart from being short Luol Deng, the Bulls are firing on all cylinders right now and they are going to be pumped up for their home opener tonight. The Bulls know how close they came to being up 2-0 in this series heading home for the chance to win but they came up short in Game 2 and I am pretty sure they are going to come into this game more confident than ever knowing they have just taken a game from the world champions on the road and almost had a piece of the second game as well. The two ATS wins in the first games of this series now means the Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five Eastern Quarterfinal playoff games dating back to other seasons. You also have to know that after allowing 100+ points the game before, the Bulls are 6-0 ATS the following game and this is a good opportunity for them tor recover at home. It should also be known that the Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games versus a team with a road winning record on the season and the Baby Bulls are now 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games versus an opponent with a straight up winning record on the season. There are not many teams hotter than the Bulls right now in the NBA as Chicago is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games coming off a loss the game before and the Bulls have now covered 11 of their last 16 home games. They have been very good against some of the top teams in the NBA and because this is such a young bunch and because they have spent so many years re-building, all of that is finally paying off and this team is perfectly shaped to beat a team like the Celtics. I think the Bulls are going to come out flying in this game and they are going to use their bench and their speed to put this game away early. Believe me when I say that they deserve to be favored in this game and they are about to show the NBA world that they are not going to be an easy out in these playoffs. Give me some that yum yum please.

Injuries are a big part of basketball and right now the Celtics are suffering big time with Kevin Garnett out indefinitely, Leon Powe done for the playoffs and Rajon Rondo suffering from a bad ankle although we don't know the real extent of the injury. There is no denying that the primetime player in this series right now is Ben Gordon because he is coming off an incredible 42 point performance that almost handed his team a win in Game 2. I really like the youth movement of Joakim Noah, Derrick Rose and Tyrus Thomas. The three of them have not played all that well yet in this series but something tells me one or two of them are going to come out of their shells tonight on home court and the NBA's Rookie of the Year was probably a little 'deer in the headlighted' in the first two games of this series. Expect Mr. Rose to have his best game of the series tonight as he is coming off a mediocre 10 point performance in the last game. You can argue all day that the Celtics are too high scoring for the Bulls and that Chicago cannot handle that pace of play but they did it on the road and I don't see why they wouldn't do it at home here. I mean Chicago is averaging 104.4 points per game in their last five games, Boston is averaging 102.4 points per game in those same games. Right now the Bulls are playing much better defense than the Celtics and that is all that really matters here. Garnett and Powe were both large presences inside and the Bulls are now going to exploit those openings in the middle and probably pull away with this game big time in the second half. I love the BABY BULLS in this spot.

Trend of the Game: Chicago is 14-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games versus a team with a straight up winning record.


Chicago 104, Boston 94




More selections to come...
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[akphidelt]

GL MistaFlava!! This looks like a solid pick!

 

[gabbana]

i would be amazed if bulls will beat double digits celtics as u said in that score but i seriously doubt that ...bol

 

[PIPE_TYSON]

im runnin with the CELTICS tonight but good luck anyway.

 

[MistaFlava]

Thursday, April 23


Western Conference Quarterfinals - Game #3


View attachment 7080 Dallas Mavericks -5 (10 Units) View attachment 7081

The San Antonio Spurs are one of the best teams in the NBA and they have been ever since Tim Duncan got here (winning a handful of championships and finishing near the top of the NBA standings each and every season pretty much). This year has been no different but their playoff run could be a bit different this time around and I say that because one of their top players of all those successful season, Manu Ginobili is out for the season with a busted ankle and the Spurs are only 4-4 SU since he was hurt and done for the year. Not only does Ginobili breath fire into this basketball club but he also has experience and has been a vital piece of this team's puzzle whenever it has come down to them needing an x-factor in a playoff series like this one. Well there is no Ginobili and although it did not matter in Game 2 of this series, I have to go back to Game 1 where the Spurs lacked reason to show up and a big part of that was because they were mising their Argentinian spark. Tim Duncan cannot do everything himself and that has been proven in the past and I actually think for once the Spurs stay in the playoffs is going to be short. The Spurs have not been playing good basketball as they are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games versus teams that have a straight up winning record on the season. They are also 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as played on 2 days rest and believe it or not the Spurs have not been a good underdog bet in the playoffs as oddsmakers make them the underdog for a good reason. As a matter of fact San Antonio is 2-6 ATS in their last eight playoff games as underdogs. I have to also say I am not impressed with the way this team has played against NBA Southwest Division teams going 1-4 ATS in their last five games. The problem with the Spurs is that after playing a good game they have a lot of problems maintainig momentum and they rarely follow good games up with another good game. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games that follow a game where they won by 10+ points and they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win. Everything points to a big loss tonight for the Spurs. It's not often you will see San Antonio score 100+ points in a game but when they do they are 0-5 ATS in the last five times in their next game and I just don't trust this team coming off a big win in Game 2 and heading back to hostile territory no matter how well they have played here in the past. We all saw how beatable these guys were in the first game of this series and I really think the Mavericks come back out again tonight and dispose of the Spurs in easy fashion.

The Dallas Mavericks were my pick in Game 1 of this series and I decided to go against them in Game 2 of this series which would make me perfect on the series so far. I know these two teams have one heck of a past history because they are both from Texas and they have both had some intense rivalry games in the past but how can you not like the home team here? Unlike the Spurs and their injury concerns with Ginobili out for the playoffs, Dallas is injury free in terms of guys they have been playing with for the past month and there are no new injuries to report. Dirk Nowitzki is the reason this team lost Game 2 because he went missing for the most part of the game finishing 3 of 14 from the floor with only 14 points but there is a good reason for that and that reason is that he played with a thumb injury that has since apparently gotten a lot better with treatment and he should be fine tonight. That injury along with the weak play of some others allowed Tony Parker to unleash 38 points on the Mavs in Game 2 and I just don't see that happening again in this game tonight. Josh Howard seems a lot more comfortable playing at home sometimes and believe me when I say he is going to bounce back from his mediocre 7 point performance in the second game of this series. The Mavericks are the kind of team you want to back after they play a bad game and I say that because they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games when their opponent the previous game scored 100+ points. They are also a very impressive 8-1 ATS in their last nine games when playing on 2 days rest which means that with some time to work on things this team does a very good job of adjusting and preparing for games. I was talking about this team being very good at recovering from losses and the proof lies in the fact that they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games that follow a straight up loss of 10+ points. The Mavericks are also the kind of team you want to back at home where they have covered the spread in four of their last five games and they finished the season off very strongly on their home court, pretty much making a statement along the way that they will be tough to beat here. Like I said before, back these guys off a bad game. Dallas is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games coming off a straight up loss the game before and they have covered the spread in 14 of their last 20 games as a home favorite so this is the place to back them. History says the Mavs are going to struggle when favored in a playoff game but I really like their chances of winning this series or at least pushing the Spurs to their complete limits and all of that will start if they can take the series lead tonight and head into Game 4 with the opportunity to go up three games to one. There is always so much hype around the Mavericks and they are always that close to where they want to be but they always seem to fail. Now that the hype is gone and nobody is talking about this team, expect some fireworks and some great games as the Mavericks come home for their first playoff game of the year and rout the Spurs.

This is probably the most intense rivalry matchup of the first round and so far neither Game 1 nor Game 2 has lived up to it's billing whatsoever. The Mavericks won the first game by 8 points in a game that was never really close and I don't recall the Spurs ever leading after halftime while Game 2 was another snoozer as the Spurs spanked the Mavs by 21 points evening this series out at one apiece. So is Dallas the place to find some magic in this series or is every game going to get out of hand and turn into somewhat of a blowout in the end? The Spurs came to Dallas twice this past regular season winning by seven in overtime in the first game and then losing to the Mavs by five in the second game. I can tell you right now that Manu Ginobili had 18 points in the first game (which they won) back in December but they lost the second game and call it a coincidence or not but Ginobili did not play in that game and that ended up being the difference. The road team has somewhat dominated this series over the course of the last few seasons but the favorite is now 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and believe me when I say Dallas is going to come out guns blazing at home in this one. Guys like Josh Howard and Brandon Bass are going to play a few notches above their normal average in their return home and the crowd intensity and noise should be enough for these guys to carry a lot of momentum into this game from their Game 1 win in San Antonio. I am banking on the Mavericks to play a great game and pull away in the fourt quarter. They are too good at home and too good in this spot.

Trend of the Game: Dallas is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games playing on two days rest.


Dallas 98, San Antonio 87




More selections to come...
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[papster]

I would not go against the Flav...

The picks last night were a thing of beauty! Heck, the last pick was almost dead on in predicting the scores....

Tonight's pix look solid as well!!!!!!!!!!
(<)<

 

[chaosman]

damn lets do a repeat of yesterday!

 

[CaptFlippy]

I was just getting ready to make my call and decided to stop here, glad we are on the same side! Good Luck.
The Capt.

 

[MistaFlava]

Thursday, April 23


Western Conference Quarterfinals - Game #3


View attachment 7082 Los Angeles Lakers -1.5 (25 Units) View attachment 7083

***PLAY OF THE DAY***

The Los Angeles Lakers had it way too easy in the first two games of this series and I know that some people are going to fade them here for the simple reason that the lines looks too easy and something has to be fishy about this. Well it's time to forget those dumb trap theories and it's time to jump on the Lakers bandwagon because if you ask me this is the best team in the NBA and I just don't see them losing a playoff game in the first round...well not for now anyways. The Lakers won Game 1 and Game 2 by double digits each time and not once were they really in jeopardy of losing either game. I know it's completely different to go and win on the road in the playoffs because Utah's house is going to be buzzing for a shot to get back into the series but the Lakers were a very impressive 29-12 on the road this season and in those games they managed to go 23-18 ATS which is pretty damn good for any team to cover that many games away from home. I think it makes a huge difference that Andrew Bynum is back in the lineup for this team because they have so much depth now and they have the experience it takes to win away from home in hostile environments like this one. For some reason I have always made some cash betting on the Lakers at this stage of the playoffs as they are now 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in the Western Conference Quarterfinals and the Lakers have really gotten the job done near the end of the season as favorites going 5-1 ATS in their last six games as the favorite. I don't know what it is about this team but I always remember them playing well on Thursday Nights on primetime and this game should be no different from the others as Los Angeles is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games played on a Thursday Night and we all know Kobe Bryant and the boys in yellow live to play in the National Spotlight. Unlike some of the other series of the 2009 NBA Playoffs, the Lakers and Jazz are only getting one night off between games and that is just fine for the Lakers who are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played on only 1 days rest. Kobe and the boys are also very good coming off a win the game before going 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games coming off a straight up win the game before. As long as the Lakers continue to play normal basketball, Utah does not stand a chance to keep up with them because the Lakers have too many weapons at the starting position and they have too many guys who can come off the bench with experience and contribute to the points total. This game could be a little bit closer than the other two games but the Lakers are not losing. Not here, not now. I think this is a very good line for us to back and even if the public is all over this, too many people are forgetting how much Mehmet Okur means to the Jazz and without him the Lakers are going to have a cakewalk in all these games.

The Utah Jazz are without one of their stars but I don't feel like talking exclusively about that right now so I am going to leave it until a little bit later to discuss. Mehmet Okur is not playing tonight and we all know how much that means to the team. They are just no that deep without him and he is their inside presence that really balances things out on the offensive and defensive side of things for this team. Regardless of Okur's status for the series, the Jazz are in real trouble if they cannot get things together in time for Game 3 tonight because they are down two games to none, they have yet to come within single digits of beating the Lakers and I am not so sure that home advantage is worth a cool 10 points in the NBA these days. We have all seen teams get swept in the opening round of the playoffs in the past and this could be another one of those cases. Utah is shooting only 44.8% from the floor in their last five games. Having said that...it's not their offense that is going to screw them over, it's more their defense because we know the Jazz have a bunch of offensive weapons with or without Okur but defensively they have allowed their last five opponents to shoot 53.9% from the floor and they have allowed 112.0 points per game in those games which is just too much if you ask me. I have made some money the last few seasons betting against Utah when they play teams from this Division as they are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games versus NBA Pacific Division opponents. The Jazz are also the kind of team that does not string many good offensive performances together and by that I mean that Utah is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring 100+ points the previous game and they are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games when coming off a straight up loss the game before. What I saw from this Utah team was a lot of success late in the season against teams from the Eastern Conference but what many have overlooked is the fact that the Jazz are only 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games versus Western Conference opponents and they finished the season only 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Safe enough to say that this team is not playing good basketball at all and I don't see how they would get things together in time to save the series against what is probably the best team in the NBA when they are healthy. Still have doubts? Well Utah is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games, they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 0.5 to 4.5 points, they are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games versus a team with a straight up winning record and they are a horrendous 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog. THIS IS A TERRIBLE SPOT FOR UTAH AND AN EVEN WORST SPOT FOR THEIR BACKERS! Give your heads a shake because Okur is out again, the Jazz sucked ass late in the season and the Lakers are just too good for them.

I'm sorry but anyone who says that Mehmet Okur being out for the first few games or for the remainder of this series is not that big of a deal and it doesn't affect the Jazz is a complete idiot. Okur averages 17.0 points per game this season, he is the big man on this team and he is what keeps the Jazz balanced enough that they can get some scoring from the secondary guys on this team. Well he is out again tonight and without him I don't see the Jazz having a shot in hell of winning any of the games in this series. The Lakers visited Utah only once this past season and that was a 113-109 loss back in February but what you have to understand about that game is that Mehmet Okur played 46 minutes of a possible 48 minutes in a game, he had 22 points, he had 8 rebounds, he was 3 for 6 from three point range, he had three steals and he was a vital part of that win (again with no Bynum in the lineup at the time). That was a tough game for the Jazz to win, they had to be perfect so with no Okur in the lineup I just don't see how he can be replaced against such a good team like the Lakers. I know the odds look weird and a lot of people are talking about the TRAP being set by Vegas here but you have to go with the better team because I see them sweeping this series and the Lakers are going to be way too tough down low like they have been in the first two games of this series. Stop second guessing what is going to happen in this game and pound away on KOBE AND THE LAKERS BABY!!! $$$$

Trend of the Game: Utah is 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.


LA Lakers 109, Utah 101




:toast:




Alright so I am kicking ass in the NBA Playoffs and I have another nice lineup of game for tonight. My baseball picks are horrendous the last few days but at least I am making up the money here in NBA Hoops much like I did in the NFL Playoffs this past playoff season. Let's keep the winning ways going and let's make some big time cash before the next round where things get a little bit crazy. Good Luck to everyone!!!
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[JWinner17]

I'm with you on all 3 picks!!! Love the Bulls play especially!!! BOL

 

[chaosman]

damn i love the first 2, still not sure about the lakers game could go either way! bol though!!! I went with jazz

 

[cosmokram3r]

Threw a big chunk on Lakers.. LETS CASH $$$

 

[ACEWHO]

Easy card tonight flav?
Great job!!