MistaFlava's MLB Wednesday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis + New Strategy

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2009 MLB Baseball Record: 18-22 (-13.20 Units)

Big Plays 25/50 Units: 3-1 (+71.00 Units)

So we are back for another baseball season and I could not be more excited. I did not post consistently in this sport in 2008 because I simply did not have the time but I have made the decision to post baseball picks right up until the NCAA Football season and NFL seasons come rolling back around and that should be a good 4-5 months of baseball and nothing but baseball.

I am also contemplating heading back into the world of NBA Betting but it's late in the season, I have not established myself in the pro hoops betting ranks and it would be tough to get into the swing of things right now at the end of the season and right before the playoffs. I am pretty sure I am not going to post NBA Picks but that might change and I might do the playoffs We'll see I guess.

The key to winning baseball bets early in the season is to stay focused on which teams and which pitchers are finding early season chemistry. Some teams favored to win it all might start 2-10 or they might start 10-0. Don't forget that good pitchers are good pitchers and bad pitchers bad pitchers regardless of Spring Training.

1 Unit = $100


I am a streaky capper and everyone knows it. You can tail, fade or simply watch what I do. But in the end, I am always a winner and that is all that matters.

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Wednesday, April 15


Jose Contreras vs. Armando Galarraga


View attachment 6984 Detroit Tigers ML -140 (10 Units) View attachment 6983

The Chicago White Sox always find a way to screw me over somehow and they did it again in Game 1 of this series pulling all stops at the plate and making my wager on Zach Miner and the Tigers look like complete trash right from the getgo. What can you do? What I can tell you however is that one of my favorite fade pitchers is on the mound this afternoon as Jose Contreras is handed the ball for the White Sox and he was completely lit up in his first start of the season. Contreras lasted only 5.0 innings, allowing 7 hits, 4 ER's and 1 HR in a 12-5 home loss to Minnesota. Brutal. I know both teams in this game are pretty good at hitting right handed pitchers and the Tigers bats did keep their momentum in the Game 1 loss so if Contreras struggles even a bit in this game he is in serious trouble and the White Sox bullpen is already tired to begin with. What you also need to know is that despite their win as an underdog in Game 1 of this series, which I still blame on bad managing by the Tigers, the White Sox have won only 15 of their last 51 games as a road underdog and they have won only 13 of their last 51 games overall as an underdog of +110 to +150. Not a good spot for them at all here. I also have to mention that they have now lost 4 of their last 5 games when facing a right-handed starter and the road win on Monday was actually their first road win in five games. You cannot trust this team away from home nor can you trust Conteras away from home (or even at home for that matter). He is not the kind of pitcher that brings enough variety to throw off opponents looking for a different look. Chicago has managed to win only 1 of Contreras' last five starts when he is an underdog and they are also only 1-4 in his last five road starts. It should also been known that the team is only 1-6 in their last seven games when Jose Contreras is on the mound in Game 2 of a series and he has been rocked by Tigers in the past. So we have a team that struggles to win on the road as underdogs with a pitcher who was not only rocked in his first start of the season but who is aging now and who has never been able to pitch a good game against this Detroit team. Huge fade here.

The Detroit Tigers screwed me over large on Monday and believe me I was not too happy about it but I am not going to give up on betting them that fast this season because I do sincerely believe they have a much more solid team than the 2008 version and despite getting blown away in Game 1 of this series, the batters fought hard and they are batting pretty damn well right now. The Tigers are actually batting .307 in four home games this season and sure they prefer to face a left handed pitcher but they have rocked righties as well and that is bad news for a White Sox team who's pitching core was rocked in Game 1 of this series. We cannot forget that despite the ugly loss (most of it was Zach Miner and poor management) the Tigers still managed to score 25 runs in three games against Texas at home last week and they now have 31 runs in their last four games. All they need is solid pitching. Well Armando Galarraga is solid and he looked great in a 15-2 afternoon home game win over Texas last week going 7.0 innings and allowing five hits (while getting 15 runs of support). I can also tell you that despite the loss in Game 1 of this series, Detroit is still 6-1 in their last seven home games versus a team with a winning record on the season and they are actually 6-2 in their last eight home games and getting better. Also, we all know the Tigers have struggled big time against AL Central opponents but they cannot keep losing against divisional opponents if they want to be playing in October and the bleeding has to stop here. Galarraga is the perfect guy on the mound this afternoon as Detroit is 6-1 in his last seven home starts versus a team with a winning overall record on the season Detroit is 6-1 in his last seven Wednesday starts (gotta be something about mid-week games). The Tigers have also won 10 of his last 13 starts versus teams with a winning record and 11 of their last 15 when Galarraga makes a start off four or more days of rest. This guy loves pitching at home and the Tigers love producing for him at home as they have won 8 of his last 11 home starts and 7 of his last 10 home starts as a favorite. The bottom line is that he is one of the only guys in this rotation worth backing right now and I am banking on another solid home outing for the second year 26 year old from Cumana. He showed that he can win games like this in 2008 and I expect him to do it here again.

These two teams do not like each other at all and the sense of urgency is going to kick in for the Tigers in this game because they have been getting killed in AL Central play the last year and a half and that kind of madness has to stop right now. The last time Jose Contreras pitched in Detroit was last June where he lasted only 6.0 innings, allowing 13 hits and 6 ER's in a 6-4 loss. He also pitched here last April where he was rocked for 10 hits over the course of 5.0 innings but the offense bailed his ass out and the White Sox won that game. His two starts here prior to last season saw him allow 12 ER's in 12.0 innings pitched (once again the offense bailed him out in one of the games and Contreras got the split. Having said that, this is Armando Galarraga's first career start against the White Sox and once again he is just what the doctor ordered for a Tigers team that has sucked ass against AL Central opponents. I don't know that I trust either bullpen but they were both decent in the first game of this series and they are both coming off a day of rest with the washout yesterday. The bottom line for me in this game is that Contreras is fading fast in the majors and his first start of the season was a very good indication of that. He has allowed 22 ER's in his last four starts in this ballpark and that was over only 23.0 innings of work which means we can expect 1-2 runs for each inning he stays on the mound in this game. I am going with the Tigers to get us some of that dough back from Monday.

Trend of the Game: Detroit is 6-1 in Galarraga's last seven home starts versus a team with a winning record on the season.


Detroit 9, White Sox 4




More selections to come...
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[Goget]

Do you ever consider playing the run line on a game like this where you see the score being 9-4?

 

[sherwood]

Also, why not play the first five innings only considering your pick is predicated on playing Gallaraga over Contreras and the Tigers pen can't be trusted?

 

[MistaFlava]

Wednesday, April 15


Aaron Laffey vs. Sidney Ponson


View attachment 6987 Kansas City Royals ML +112 (10 Units) View attachment 6988

The Cleveland Indians are off to one hell of a horrendous start this season and what makes anyone think that won't continue today? The Indians are now 1-7 after losing their first two games of this series to the Royals and once again I have to ask you guys what makes you think they are going to be any different on the road in this game? Cleveland is being outscored 13-5 in this series, they have yet to win a single game on the road this season and they are going up against a young team that is playing with a lot of charisma right now and winning a game like this will not be easy. Aaron Laffey is on the mound this afternoon and for some reason the oddsmakers have decided to make him a favorite in this game. That's a little bit strange because he is 9-9 in 25 career starts with an ERA well above 4.00 and this is his first start of the 2009 season. I really don't believe he deserves to be favored here but the public seems to like it and that is why I am fading. Not only have the Indians sucked on the road but they have sucked in midweek games winning only 4 of their last 16 games played on a Wednesday. So the Indians are now 0-5 away from home, they can't seem to get things going both on the mound and at the plate and they are now 1-4 in their last five games as a favorite. Cleveland is also 1-6 in their last seven games versus a team that has a winning record, they are 1-8 in their last nine games overall dating back to last season and I have a hard time believing the Indians can turn things around on their already disasterous season. The problem with this team also is that they cannot hit for shit off right handed starters going 0-7 in their last seven games versus righties. Aaron Laffey is by no means a savior for the Indians and again that is why I am having a hard time understanding the Money Line odds for this game. For those of you who don't know anything about him, the Indians are 1-6 in their last seven games when Aaron Laffey starts and they are 0-5 in his last five road starts. Laffey does not have good control on his pitches and he allows too many baserunners to advance way too easily. I don't see him winning on the road for the first time in over a year and the Indians are going to continue one of their worst starts to the season ever.

The Kansas City Royals talk about being better each and every season and it never really happens but there is a ray of light at the end of tunnel in 2009 and I will gladly back them more than 2-3 times a year from now. You can argue all day that betting on the Royals is handicapping suicide but they have won the first two games of this series, have shown that they are going to compete in the AL Central Division this season and that is good enough reason for me to back them. The Royals are now 5-3 on the season and they have wins over the Yankees, White Sox and now Indians. I have no reason to believe they cannot keep beating teams that are inferior to them like Cleveland and even with one of the biggest baseball fades in the world (Sidney Ponson) on the mound for this game, I still like Kansas City to find a way to win this game. Ponson was roughed up a little bit in his first start of the season but he got absolutely no run support and I think the guys are going to rally behind him in this game. Kansas City has now won four straight games against AL Central opponents (what they need to do if they want to compete for a possible playoff spot this season) and they are 6-1 in their last seven games versus an opponent with a winning percentage below .400 on the season (like Cleveland has right now). I also have to point out that the Royals have been a very good underdog wager as they are 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and if you go all the way back to their winning ways at the end of last season, they are now 19-7 in their last 26 games overall. Game 3 of a series has been very kind to these guys as they have won 7 of their last 9 when playing Game 3 of a series and the Royals are really making a statement at home having won 12 of their last 17 home games once again going back to last season. I know this team has somewhat struggled against left handed starters and they are batting only .198 on the season against left handed pitchers but Cleveland's starting pitchers have been by far the worst in Major League Baseball this season as they have a combined ERA of 10.12 on the season and 12.27 on the road while their bullpen has been just as horrendous with their 6.00 ERA away from home and their 6.37 ERA on the season. That means that even if the Royals struggle Laffey in this game, the bullpen will surely come in and give the Royals plenty of chances to get back into this game.

I have a feeling a lot of people are going to back the Indians in this game with the assumption that they cannot keep losing games like this but right now they have no team chemistry whatsoever and this team is falling apart in a hurry. I believe changes to the management ranks are all that is going to do this team any good at this point and until those managerial changes happen, expect the Indians to continue losing. Cleveland already had problems winning here to start with as they are now 1-5 in their last six meetings in Kansas City and they have now dropped five straight games to the Royals dating back to last season as well. Not good. Home Plate Umpire Charlie Reliford is somewhat of a homer and the home team is 5-0 in the last five Kansas City games where he is behind home plate. The home team is also 6-1 in Charlie Reliford last seven Wednesday games behind home plate and overall the Home Team is 9-2 in Charli Reliford's last 11 games behind home plate so yes he is one hell of a homer umpire and that only benefits the Royals here in a game where the Indians will surely show frustrations when things don't go their way. I really like the look of this Royals team this season and I think they are going to continue playing well against opponents from their own Division. Time to cash on these guys as underdogs.

Trend of the Game: Cleveland is 0-5 in Aaron Laffey's last five road starts.


Kansas City 6, Cleveland 4




More selections to come...
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[MistaFlava]

Wednesday, April 15


Andy Pettitte vs. Andy Sonnanstine


View attachment 6990 Tampa Bay Rays ML -101 (10 Units) View attachment 6991

The New York Yankees are going to be a lot better this season than they were in 2008 and they have already showed a lot more signs of life this year than they did last year but the questions remains...can they be good enough to make the playoffs or will they have to once again take a backseat to both the Red Sox and the Rays and/or the Blue Jays (my boys are on fire right now). Well at this point it's tough to tell how good the Yankees are going to be as they stand at 4-4 on the season and have shown both signs of life and signs of their 2008 season that saw them miss the playoffs. How much do you guys trust Andy Pettitte anyways? The Rays have one hell of a powerful offense and it would be one heck of a risk to take Pettitte against these guys on the road. I would have to say the Hall of Fame lefty was incredible in his first start of the season in Kansas City last week where he held the Royals to only a few base runners in his 7.0 strong innings of work. Having said that, he is a bit overrated coming off that outing because the Royals suck against lefties while Tampa Bay is hitting a whopping .338 against lefties this season and Pettitte could be in for a rude awakening. I have to admit I have made some nice cash in the past betting on the Yankees as a favorite in this range but I have no choice but to fade Andy Pettitte in this game because as I mentioned, the Rays are very good against left handed starters in this ballpark and the Yankees have won only 3 of Andy Pettitte's last 11 starts as a favorite. They are also only 1-4 in Pettitte's last five starts that follow a Quality Start the game before and they are only 2-8 in the last 10 games where Pettitte starts off four days rest. This is a very bad spot for the Yankees, they struggled against the Rays in 2008 and they look to be heading in the same direction this time around. I have no confidence in Pettitte whatsoever against teams who can really hit off lefties and I guarantee you people are going to be scratching their heads after his start today. Not here not now Andy. Fade time.

The Tampa Bay Rays are going to be without their best player Evan Longoria in this game and yes that is a big deal. Having said that, this entire batting lineup is more than capable when it comes to putting some runs on the board. Longoria's absence is not that big of a deal in my eyes and I have no issues backing this team at home against a left handed starter regardless of who is in or out of this lineup. On the mound for the Rays today is Andy Sonnanstine who had a tough time in his first outing of the year as he got rocked around a bit by the Orioles on the road and his control was way off in that game. I however think Sonnanstine is good enough to recover from that loss in his home debut here. The Yankees are another one of those teams who's lineup is primarily composed of guys who can pound away on left handed pitchers but Sonnanstine is a righty and the Yankees have managed to hit only .255 against righ handed pitchers this season and that is going to be a problem if this turns into a shootout. I have no idea why anyone would go against the Rays when they are underdogs after the way they played at home as dogs in 2008. I remember this team going a whopping 9-1 in their last 10 home games as underdogs and it took a bit of time in 2008 for oddsmakers to realize that you do not slap the underdog tag on these guys at Tropicana. I mean this is a team that just keeps getting better and better when they play at home as they have won 59 of their last 80 home games and they have won 60 of their last 86 games played on Field Turf. I think it's safe enough to say that this is a very good spot to back them because they love hitting against left handed pitchers and the aging Andy Pettitte is on the mound tonight for the Yankees (comes in overrated by oddsmakers because of his performance in Kansas City last week). I talked a lot about how good Tampa Bay has been against lefties and how well they can knock them around. Well in the end they have now won 15 of their last 22 home games versus left handed starting pitchers and for some they find a way to play a lot better against lefties at home than they do on the road. Tampa Bay is now 4-1 in Andy Sonnanstine's last five starts as underdog so the word is out that he is a lot more relaxed when a lot less is expected from him and the Rays are also a whopping 8-2 in Sonnanstine's last 10 home starts, which means it was stupid for me to bet on him in Baltimore last week and I got my ass served in that game. The Rays are also 7-2 in Sonnanstine's last nine starts against AL East opponents, they are 6-2 in his last 8 starts in Game 3 of a series, they are 11-4 in his last 15 starts on Field Turf and he is a guy I have made money on in the past when betting on him at home against opponents from this Division. I know it's tough to have Longoria out of the lineup but the Rays are the play tonight.

So the rivalry continues and the what's funny to me is that the Yankees know they are going to have to find a way to beat the Rays if they ever want to get a taste of the post-season again because we all know what Tampa Bay is capable of with their young team and they are going to be just as good as last season as long as they avoid injuries. Having said that, Andy Pettitte and the Yankees for some reason have had some success pitching in this ballpark as the Yankees have won something like 5 or 6 of their last seven games in Tropicana when Andy Pettitte is on the mound but I just cannot see him beating this Rays lineup today coming off that win last week against the Royals in Kansas City. I mean this is the one team that Pettitte has found a way to dominate the last few seasons but he is getting old and I just do not trust him anymore without the same velocty on his pitches as years past and it's not like the Rays have not seen his stuff before. Having said that, Pettite was rocked for 5 ER's in only 4.0 innings of work here last May in a 7-1 loss as -104 moneyline favorites and even though he won here earlier that same April, he did allow 9 hits in that game and the Rays did squander quite a few chances to put more than 3 runs on the board in that game. I think this game is going to be all about Tampa Bay's ability to hit lefties at home and like I said last year, you should be betting on the Rays each and every time they are underdogs at home. SO GET ON IT!

Trend of the Game: Tampa Bay is 9-1 in their last 10 games as a home underdog.


Tampa Bay 8, NY Yankees 5




More selections to come...
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