MistaFlava's MLB FRIDAY ***Power Selections*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2007 MLB Record: 49-52 (-29.79 Units)

My record includes all the whacky plays I made this season and all the parlays and just about anything I posted. I am back to my old style of baseball capping and betting it seems to be paying off in some ways. I am going to try and keep things as simple as possible and I pretty already know I can turn my season around and end up in the plus side of things. Alright, lets get down to business.

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Friday, June 29


Chicago Cubs ML -124 (5 Units)

Gonna keep this nice and short. Yovani Gallardo is making his first career road start in MLB and Wrigley is a very tough place for a young pitcher to make his first road start. The Brewers are red hot right now and fresh off the heels of a Houston sweep at home but keep in mind that their value is almost only when they play at home as they are 16-19 on the road this season and if you're ever going to go against them, this is the time and place to do it. The Cubs have left Rich Hill out to dry in his last three starts getting him only 2.7 runs of support per game but I think they can turn the heat up today and make things happen against the young Milwaukee righty. Betting on the Cubs this season has proved to be disastrous for most units wise but I think the spot is right. Milwaukee hits only .225 on the road versus lefties this season and Rich Hill has dominated them in the past and has been great at home this season. The Cubbies bat .275 versus righties at home so backing them at this price with a very good pitcher on the mound seems about right. What most Milwaukee bettors don't know is that the Brewers are 1-7 in their last eight games versus a starting pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15 (Rich Hill has a WHIP of 1.06). The Cubs have won six straight, no reason they can't make it seven at home on a Friday.




:toast:


Will be back with more tonight...

 

[Feri]

BOL Mista! :toast:

 

[MistaFlava]

Lucky for once...Jesus Christ. Back with another 5 unit play tonight...had it lined up for a while.

 

[Azrats]

Now I know where the term Lucky Dog came from

 

[MistaFlava]

adding one more before the late games:



Minnesota Twins ML +100 (5 Units)

I haven't had much success betting on Johan Santana away from home as an underdog this year but he is pitching so well right now that I just can't pass this up. His career numbers in this ballpark are better on all fronts than Justin Verlander's and although Santana is getting only 4.2 runs of support per start this season, the Twinkies have picked it up for him over his last three starts and are now giving him 6.3 runs of support per game in those three starts. What I find interesting is that when Santana pitched here earlier this year, the Twins lost 4-3 and he was left out to dry. When Verlander started in this ballpark earlier this year against the Twins, the Tigers lost the game 11-3. Let's evaluate both games. Verlander went only 3.0 innings in his start against the Twins at Comerica allowing 8 hits, 3 ER's and 1 BB. Santana went 6.0 innings in his start against the Tigers at Comerica allowing 8 hits, 3 ER's and 3 BB's. In this very same matchup last year, Verlander and the Tigers were a +130 home underdog and you are telling me that one year makes them a -111 favorite against the same Twins team? I don't expect a lot of runs in this one but I do expect Santana to once again pitch well in this ballpark and this time around get the win like he did (he split games here last year) in 2006. BADDA BING!




:toast:



Will be back with a late nighter...

 

[Loren78]

On tap for a nice night...congrats!!!!!! I was with you on the Cubs....wonderful surprise when I got home from work!!!!!!

 

[MistaFlava]

Alright now the finale of the night, going for the SWEEEEEEEP:




Toronto Blue Jays ML +125 (10 Units)

This is the one team Jarrod Washburn has almost never been able to beat. He has lost five straight games against the Blue Jays, who despite the loss to Minnesota in their series finale yesterday, are playing some of their best baseball all season. If Washburn thinks things were bad in the past against the Jays, wait until he runs into this lineup who loves to smash lefties. We start off with Alex Rios who is batting .316 versus lefties this season, then Vernon Wells who is batting .288 versus lefties this season, then Troy Glaus who is batting .356 versus lefties this season, then Frank Thomas who is batting .309 versus lefties this season, then Aaron Hill who is batting .329 versus lefties this season, then Curtis Thigpen who is batting .333 versus lefties this season and John MacDonald who is batting .375 versus lefties this season. The only two guys in today's lineup who can't hit lefties are Adam Lind and Greg Zaun so who cares. Washburn is in for one hell of a tough time tonight. I know Seattle has won several games in a row and they are hot but the Jays are too. Dustin McGowan is coming off the best start of his career, taking a no hitter into the ninth. Everyone I run into says he is going to suck this time out because thats how it works for guys coming off near no hitters. Who the hell said thats how it works??? McGowan has allowed more than 3 ER's in only one of his last seven starts and that's only because the Dodgers were seeing him for the second time in 10 days. Get over it guys, he is one of the best young pitchers in baseball and he has a deadly lefty hitting lineup behind him tonight. JAYS TO THE BANK!



:toast:

 

[GoSteelers248]

with you on jays Mista....let's cash this in!!!!!

 

[toobster808]

good luck!!...crazy how u could lose all u won earlier in the day on this one play-

 

[GoSteelers248]

lose all?? game is only in 2nd inning

 

[AJPantano]

lose all?? game is only in 2nd inning

I think he was making the point that he is risking all the units he had won today on one play tonight. Therefore, there is a chance to lose all he had won.

 

[toobster808]

Tru, i know its 2nd inning..Im rootn for all the Jays backers, just making a reference to the units. good luck:toast:

 

[GoSteelers248]

icic...misunderstood