MistaFlava's 2010 MLB Baseball Record: 66-60 (+145.15 Units)
Monday, August 9
Boston Red Sox ML -113 (10 Units)
This is a big one for the Red Sox because not only do they have Tampa Bay right where they want and have yet to take advantage of it, but they now have the red hot Toronto Blue Jays on deck in another road series and they know beating the Jays has been next to impossible lately. Toronto is coming off series wins over the New York Yankees and the Rays going 5-1 in those six games and another loss to the Yankees could spell the end of their season. So this is a big one. We have an interesting pitching matchup today with Jon Lester going for the Sox and Philip Hughes will go for the Yankees even though he was not scheduled until sometime on Sunday when AJ Burnett was scratched. I can't say I'm a fan of Lester in day time starts where his stats are nothing like his night time starts but I do find comfort in the fact that Hughes has a 4.21 ERA in his six day time starts in 2010. Having said that, the Yankees are 6-0 when Hughes makes a day time start and betting on the Red Sox here is like playing with fire but I am taking the risk. Boston has lost four straight with Lester on the mound and something has to give because he hasn't pitched all that poorly. The cards are all lined up for the Yankees to win this game because they are 10-2 when Hughes starts at home this season and 6-0 when he pitches during the day. Having said that, he was rocked for 5 ER's in a home start against these Red Sox back in May and has allowed 16 ER's in four career starts against them (8 ER's in two career home starts). Lester on the other hand has been a Yankee killer. In his last 10 starts against the Yankees, 7 of them have been quality starts and seven times he has recorded 7 or more strikeouts. If there is one pitcher that can pitch this team out of a funk it's Lester because the Red Sox have won 42 of his last 56 starts and having lost four straight it's quite unimaginable that they lost a fifth. I know Hughes and the Yankees have been one of the combos in baseball this season but I am taking a shot in the dark and thinking the Red Sox get Lester that elusive slump busting win.
Trend of the Game: Boston is 42-14 in Jon Lester's last 56 starts.
Boston 5, NY Yankees 4
Baltimore Orioles ML +129 (10 Units)
This is it. Are the Orioles the real deal with new manager Buck Showalter or were the last five games just a fluke? I don't know that this game is going to tell the entire story but we should have a good idea once this is all said and done. Showalter won his first four games as Manager of the Orioles until a close 4-2 loss on Saturday but the Orioles were right back on track on Sunday beating the White Sox 4-3 and already guaranteeing themselves at least a series tie. Not bad for one of the worst teams in Major League Baseball this season. I was looking at some pitching stats from the last week or so and believe it or not the Oriole starting staff, who have an ERA of 5.37 as a unit in 2010, have been the best in baseball over that span of seven days. Incredible really. Brian Matusz the lefty is one of the only guys who has struggled during that time span yet the Orioles are 2-1 in his last three starts despite his poor numbers. He is getting 5.7 runs of support per start in those three starts and believe me Edwin Jackson, who is on the mound for the White Sox, is not that much better having now allowed 10 ER's and 27 hits in his last three starts (his only start as a White Sox was somewhat of a gem). Jackson has been to Baltimore three times in his career and has allowed 12 ER's in three starts including 19 hits in those three starts combined. Matusz is 1-7 at home this season and the Orioles are 2-9 in his 11 home starts in 2010 but he has shown signs of brilliance at times this season and is coming off a 1 ER performance against the Angels at home last week. He also pitched well against the Red Sox in Boston a few weeks ago, against the A's at home back in late June and in San Diego in June as well. He has allowed only 1 Home Run his last three starts and has really learned to control some of his pitches and adjust to his opponents. Chicago has won only 3 of their last 10 games versus a left handed starter and they are 5-11 in their last 16 versus AL East opponents. Baltimore is now 5-1 under Buck Showalter, they are 4-1 in Brian Matusz's last five starts on four days rest and they are now 5-2 in their last seven home games against Baltimore. I also noticed a stat that the Home Team is 14-2 in home plate umpire Chris Guccione's last 16 games played on a Monday. Not sure what it means but I'm a fan of the Late Night Showalter.
Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 14-2 in Home Plate Umpire Chris Guccione's last 16 Monday games.
Baltimore 4, White Sox 2
Cincinnati Reds ML +123 (10 Units)
This is some incredible stuff from the guys in Vegas considering the way the Reds are playing as of late and considering the importance of this game. Cincinnati is only 2.0 games ahead of the Cardinals coming into this series, a series that could either make or break both of these teams in the long run when one of them misses out on the post-season by only one game or two or even less. So who wants this more? The Reds are coming off a three game road series sweep of the reeling Chicago Cubs and they are now 7-1 in their last eight games overall. The Cardinals might be a bit worn out because they had one heck of a long Sunday afternoon waiting and waiting for their game in Florida to start but it never did, was postponed and the Cardinals were on their way to Cincinnati. Having said that they have lost three of their last five games. We all know the Cardinals are going to skip Jeff Suppan's start and have Chris Carpenter go tonight. The Cards are now 5-0 in Carpenter's last five starts and all five starts were Quality Starts so the old Chris is back and ready for a playoff run. Having said that, only one of the five opponents in those starts was a playoff position team and that was a home start against the Phillies. On the mound for the Reds tonight is Mike Leake who has struggled lately and lost two of his last three starts but he is 4-1 at home this season and 5-2 in night time starts. Like I said he has not pitched well in recent weeks but 4 of his last 5 starts have been road starts and he'll be happy to pitch at home where he allowed only 1 ER in his last start, an 8-7 win over Washington on July 20. My problem with the Cardinals is that they are not effective enough against right handed pitchers to take advantage of Leake's struggles. They are 8-20 in their last 28 games versus a right handed starter and only 1-6 in their last seven road games versus a team with a home winning record on the season. Cincinnati is riding a four game win streak, they are 5-1 in their last six Monday games and they are 5-1 the last six times Mike Leake has pitched on 5+ days of rest (he last pitched on August 3 and is well rested). I like Cincinnati to stay hot in this one.
Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 5-1 in Mike Leake's last six starts on 5+ days rest.
Cincinnati 5, St. Louis 2
Atlanta Braves ML -119 (10 Units)
This is another one of those that is a bit of a head scratcher because no matter who is on the mound for either team, the Braves are 64-47 and heading for the post-season while the Astros are one of the worst teams in baseball and have a 47-62 record on the season. I figure this might be because Mike Minor is making his first career MLB start in this game but can this Astros team really beat this 22 year old lefty? I highly doubt it. The Astros come into this game having lost four straight now and coming off a road sweep at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers who up until this weekend were finding it tough to beat just about anyone. Houston has allowed 30 runs in their last four games (all losses as mentioned) and now the have to face one of the hottest teams in baseball the Braves who are coming off a 3-1 series win over the Giants at home on the weekend. Mike Minor is making his MLB debut for the Braves and despite being 2-6 in 14 starts with AA Mississippi, he was tremendous in AAA, going 4-1 in six starts with an ERA of 1.89 and 37 strikeouts in 33.1 innings pitched while allowing only 7 ER's. This kid has some serious stuff. On the mound for Houston is Bud Norris who is 1-4 at home this season with an ERA of 6.10 and a WHIP of 1.55 while the team is 2-6 in his eight home starts in 2010. I don't really need to say more than that because the Braves lineup is going to eat him alive. Atlanta is now 9-3 in their last 12 Game 1 situations and they have won 37 of their last 55 games versus a right handed starter. Houston is 1-5 in Bud Norris' last six starts versus a team with a winning record on the season, they are 1-5 in his last five home starts and 1-6 in his last seven starts in Game 1 of a series. I don't expect much from Minor in his MLB debut but the Braves are the much better team and you can't ignore that here.
Trend of the Game: Houston is 1-5 in Bud Norris' last six home starts.
Atlanta 9, Houston 2
Seattle Mariners ML -108 (10 Units)
You don't like to bet on bad teams but I feel like I somewhat exhausted my welcome betting on Oakland against Texas and coming off such a big series win, you have to imagine this team is due for somewhat of a letdown so I am going to put my money where it has been burned so many times in the past and take the Mariners to win. Seattle and Oakland are both coming off 3-2 home wins on Sunday and both should have some momentum coming into this game but neither team is hitting particularly well in their last 10 games and this is probably all going to come down to pitching. Vin Mazzaro is on the mound for Oakland and Doug Fister is on the mound for Seattle. Both have been nothing short of horrendous in their last three starts (both have an ERA above 5.00 in those starts) but both are having good enough seasons that they are worth a look (both have sub 4.00 ERA's on the season). Having said all of that, I will always trust Fister pitching at home in Seattle over Mazzaro pitching away from home. The Mariners are only 4-7 in Fister's 11 home starts in 2010 but in those starts he has an ERA of 3.27 and a WHIP of 1.02 and has pitched well enough to probably win 8 or 9 at home. The issue with Seattle is always going to be run support because they barely have any. Having said that, Oakland is only 3-3 in Mazzaro's six road starts in 2010 where his ERA is 4.22 and his WHIP is 1.66 in those games. In his only career start against the Mariners, Mazzaro allowed 3 ER's in only 5.0 innings of work and the A's lost the game 3-1. Fister on the other hand has two home wins in his career against Oakland, going 2-0 in two career home starts against them where he allowed 1 ER in 15.0 innings of work. Impressive stuff to say the least. Oakland is only 1-4 in their last five Monday games and only 1-5 in their last six Game 1 situations. Seattle doesn't have much to brag about lately but they have won 20 of their last 28 home games against Oakland and seeing how well Fister has pitched at home this season and against Oakland in his career, I have to think Seattle gets him a win here.
Trend of the Game: Oakland is 1-5 in their last six Game 1's of a series.
Seattle 4, Oakland 1
:toast:
Monday, August 9
Boston Red Sox ML -113 (10 Units)
This is a big one for the Red Sox because not only do they have Tampa Bay right where they want and have yet to take advantage of it, but they now have the red hot Toronto Blue Jays on deck in another road series and they know beating the Jays has been next to impossible lately. Toronto is coming off series wins over the New York Yankees and the Rays going 5-1 in those six games and another loss to the Yankees could spell the end of their season. So this is a big one. We have an interesting pitching matchup today with Jon Lester going for the Sox and Philip Hughes will go for the Yankees even though he was not scheduled until sometime on Sunday when AJ Burnett was scratched. I can't say I'm a fan of Lester in day time starts where his stats are nothing like his night time starts but I do find comfort in the fact that Hughes has a 4.21 ERA in his six day time starts in 2010. Having said that, the Yankees are 6-0 when Hughes makes a day time start and betting on the Red Sox here is like playing with fire but I am taking the risk. Boston has lost four straight with Lester on the mound and something has to give because he hasn't pitched all that poorly. The cards are all lined up for the Yankees to win this game because they are 10-2 when Hughes starts at home this season and 6-0 when he pitches during the day. Having said that, he was rocked for 5 ER's in a home start against these Red Sox back in May and has allowed 16 ER's in four career starts against them (8 ER's in two career home starts). Lester on the other hand has been a Yankee killer. In his last 10 starts against the Yankees, 7 of them have been quality starts and seven times he has recorded 7 or more strikeouts. If there is one pitcher that can pitch this team out of a funk it's Lester because the Red Sox have won 42 of his last 56 starts and having lost four straight it's quite unimaginable that they lost a fifth. I know Hughes and the Yankees have been one of the combos in baseball this season but I am taking a shot in the dark and thinking the Red Sox get Lester that elusive slump busting win.
Trend of the Game: Boston is 42-14 in Jon Lester's last 56 starts.
Boston 5, NY Yankees 4
Baltimore Orioles ML +129 (10 Units)
This is it. Are the Orioles the real deal with new manager Buck Showalter or were the last five games just a fluke? I don't know that this game is going to tell the entire story but we should have a good idea once this is all said and done. Showalter won his first four games as Manager of the Orioles until a close 4-2 loss on Saturday but the Orioles were right back on track on Sunday beating the White Sox 4-3 and already guaranteeing themselves at least a series tie. Not bad for one of the worst teams in Major League Baseball this season. I was looking at some pitching stats from the last week or so and believe it or not the Oriole starting staff, who have an ERA of 5.37 as a unit in 2010, have been the best in baseball over that span of seven days. Incredible really. Brian Matusz the lefty is one of the only guys who has struggled during that time span yet the Orioles are 2-1 in his last three starts despite his poor numbers. He is getting 5.7 runs of support per start in those three starts and believe me Edwin Jackson, who is on the mound for the White Sox, is not that much better having now allowed 10 ER's and 27 hits in his last three starts (his only start as a White Sox was somewhat of a gem). Jackson has been to Baltimore three times in his career and has allowed 12 ER's in three starts including 19 hits in those three starts combined. Matusz is 1-7 at home this season and the Orioles are 2-9 in his 11 home starts in 2010 but he has shown signs of brilliance at times this season and is coming off a 1 ER performance against the Angels at home last week. He also pitched well against the Red Sox in Boston a few weeks ago, against the A's at home back in late June and in San Diego in June as well. He has allowed only 1 Home Run his last three starts and has really learned to control some of his pitches and adjust to his opponents. Chicago has won only 3 of their last 10 games versus a left handed starter and they are 5-11 in their last 16 versus AL East opponents. Baltimore is now 5-1 under Buck Showalter, they are 4-1 in Brian Matusz's last five starts on four days rest and they are now 5-2 in their last seven home games against Baltimore. I also noticed a stat that the Home Team is 14-2 in home plate umpire Chris Guccione's last 16 games played on a Monday. Not sure what it means but I'm a fan of the Late Night Showalter.
Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 14-2 in Home Plate Umpire Chris Guccione's last 16 Monday games.
Baltimore 4, White Sox 2
Cincinnati Reds ML +123 (10 Units)
This is some incredible stuff from the guys in Vegas considering the way the Reds are playing as of late and considering the importance of this game. Cincinnati is only 2.0 games ahead of the Cardinals coming into this series, a series that could either make or break both of these teams in the long run when one of them misses out on the post-season by only one game or two or even less. So who wants this more? The Reds are coming off a three game road series sweep of the reeling Chicago Cubs and they are now 7-1 in their last eight games overall. The Cardinals might be a bit worn out because they had one heck of a long Sunday afternoon waiting and waiting for their game in Florida to start but it never did, was postponed and the Cardinals were on their way to Cincinnati. Having said that they have lost three of their last five games. We all know the Cardinals are going to skip Jeff Suppan's start and have Chris Carpenter go tonight. The Cards are now 5-0 in Carpenter's last five starts and all five starts were Quality Starts so the old Chris is back and ready for a playoff run. Having said that, only one of the five opponents in those starts was a playoff position team and that was a home start against the Phillies. On the mound for the Reds tonight is Mike Leake who has struggled lately and lost two of his last three starts but he is 4-1 at home this season and 5-2 in night time starts. Like I said he has not pitched well in recent weeks but 4 of his last 5 starts have been road starts and he'll be happy to pitch at home where he allowed only 1 ER in his last start, an 8-7 win over Washington on July 20. My problem with the Cardinals is that they are not effective enough against right handed pitchers to take advantage of Leake's struggles. They are 8-20 in their last 28 games versus a right handed starter and only 1-6 in their last seven road games versus a team with a home winning record on the season. Cincinnati is riding a four game win streak, they are 5-1 in their last six Monday games and they are 5-1 the last six times Mike Leake has pitched on 5+ days of rest (he last pitched on August 3 and is well rested). I like Cincinnati to stay hot in this one.
Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 5-1 in Mike Leake's last six starts on 5+ days rest.
Cincinnati 5, St. Louis 2
Atlanta Braves ML -119 (10 Units)
This is another one of those that is a bit of a head scratcher because no matter who is on the mound for either team, the Braves are 64-47 and heading for the post-season while the Astros are one of the worst teams in baseball and have a 47-62 record on the season. I figure this might be because Mike Minor is making his first career MLB start in this game but can this Astros team really beat this 22 year old lefty? I highly doubt it. The Astros come into this game having lost four straight now and coming off a road sweep at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers who up until this weekend were finding it tough to beat just about anyone. Houston has allowed 30 runs in their last four games (all losses as mentioned) and now the have to face one of the hottest teams in baseball the Braves who are coming off a 3-1 series win over the Giants at home on the weekend. Mike Minor is making his MLB debut for the Braves and despite being 2-6 in 14 starts with AA Mississippi, he was tremendous in AAA, going 4-1 in six starts with an ERA of 1.89 and 37 strikeouts in 33.1 innings pitched while allowing only 7 ER's. This kid has some serious stuff. On the mound for Houston is Bud Norris who is 1-4 at home this season with an ERA of 6.10 and a WHIP of 1.55 while the team is 2-6 in his eight home starts in 2010. I don't really need to say more than that because the Braves lineup is going to eat him alive. Atlanta is now 9-3 in their last 12 Game 1 situations and they have won 37 of their last 55 games versus a right handed starter. Houston is 1-5 in Bud Norris' last six starts versus a team with a winning record on the season, they are 1-5 in his last five home starts and 1-6 in his last seven starts in Game 1 of a series. I don't expect much from Minor in his MLB debut but the Braves are the much better team and you can't ignore that here.
Trend of the Game: Houston is 1-5 in Bud Norris' last six home starts.
Atlanta 9, Houston 2
Seattle Mariners ML -108 (10 Units)
You don't like to bet on bad teams but I feel like I somewhat exhausted my welcome betting on Oakland against Texas and coming off such a big series win, you have to imagine this team is due for somewhat of a letdown so I am going to put my money where it has been burned so many times in the past and take the Mariners to win. Seattle and Oakland are both coming off 3-2 home wins on Sunday and both should have some momentum coming into this game but neither team is hitting particularly well in their last 10 games and this is probably all going to come down to pitching. Vin Mazzaro is on the mound for Oakland and Doug Fister is on the mound for Seattle. Both have been nothing short of horrendous in their last three starts (both have an ERA above 5.00 in those starts) but both are having good enough seasons that they are worth a look (both have sub 4.00 ERA's on the season). Having said all of that, I will always trust Fister pitching at home in Seattle over Mazzaro pitching away from home. The Mariners are only 4-7 in Fister's 11 home starts in 2010 but in those starts he has an ERA of 3.27 and a WHIP of 1.02 and has pitched well enough to probably win 8 or 9 at home. The issue with Seattle is always going to be run support because they barely have any. Having said that, Oakland is only 3-3 in Mazzaro's six road starts in 2010 where his ERA is 4.22 and his WHIP is 1.66 in those games. In his only career start against the Mariners, Mazzaro allowed 3 ER's in only 5.0 innings of work and the A's lost the game 3-1. Fister on the other hand has two home wins in his career against Oakland, going 2-0 in two career home starts against them where he allowed 1 ER in 15.0 innings of work. Impressive stuff to say the least. Oakland is only 1-4 in their last five Monday games and only 1-5 in their last six Game 1 situations. Seattle doesn't have much to brag about lately but they have won 20 of their last 28 home games against Oakland and seeing how well Fister has pitched at home this season and against Oakland in his career, I have to think Seattle gets him a win here.
Trend of the Game: Oakland is 1-5 in their last six Game 1's of a series.
Seattle 4, Oakland 1
:toast: