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Colorado Buffaloes -24 (10 Units)
Not a very conventional play I know with all the huge 3:00pm ET matchups we have going on today but staying from some of those is a choice I made earlier in the week and this is a game that caught my eye. Oregon State is a terrible football team and they come into this game with a 1-6 SU record on the season and have not done much better on the spread going 2-5 ATS in those games. The Beavers have one win this season and it was in Week 2 of the season against an FCS opponent where they still allowed 25 points at home. If you look back at Oregon State's last four games coming into this one they have been outyarded by a grand total of 839 yards. Things are not going well at all. It's not that the Beavers can't score, it's more that they can't stop anyone. Having said that scoring might be a bit tough to come by in this one as the Colorado defense has been good at home allowing 17.0 points per game and only 4.9 yards per play this season. Oregon State loves to establish the run (44 running plays to 34.7 passing plays per game on the road in 2018) but the Buffs allow only 3.4 yards per carry at home this season which means Oregon State, who will be playing down most of the game, have to throw. Well, Colorado's secondary has allowed opponents to complete only 48.9% of their passes at home this season for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. They have 10 sacks in three home games and the Oregon State offensive line has allowed a whopping 15 sacks in three road games. Colorado has struggled to force turnovers in 2018 but that will change today. They'll make some huge plays to pile it on.
The Colorado Buffaloes have put together quite the nice little season so far in 2018 and they look destined for a Bowl Game and can still be considered in PAC 12 Conference Title discussions. Why not? They did not play well their last two games and lost at both USC and Washington State but now they are back home where they have been at their best so far this season going 3-0 SU with wins over New Hampshire, UCLA and Arizona State outyarding those three opponents by some 536 total combined yards. All those teams are better than Oregon State. So far at home this season the Buffs are averaging 37.0 points per game and 487.3 total yards of offense on 6.4 yards per play (compared 4.5 yards per play in their last three games). OREGON STATE HAS ALLOWED 55.3 POINTS PER AWAY GAME THIS SEASON and have also allowed 546 total yards of offense per game and 7.2 yards per play on the road. My God! Colorado loves to pound the ball on the ground at home averaging 48 carries to 28 pass attempts on this field and now they get to face an Oregon State defense allowing 309.7 rushing yards on 7.1 yards per carry per game away from home this season. Colorado has been moving the ball at a clip of 9.2 yards per pass attempt at home this season and they should be able to torch this Beavers secondary that is allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt on the road and that has only 2 interceptions and 1 fumble recovery in three away games this season. The Buffs have turned the ball over only 2 times in three home games. I think they put up some massive numbers in this one and move to 6 wins in blowout fashion.
We all know how many Colorado is going to score in this one so the only real question is how many will Oregon State score? Their last time here they managed to score only 6 points in 2016 and were blown out of the water to the tune of 47-6 win by Colorado. I expect the exact same type of result in this one. There is no hope for this Beavers team who are 0-8 ATS in their last eight PAC 12 Conference games and who come into game 1-5 ATS in their last six road games in all conferences. Colorado managed only 263 total yards of offense against Washington their last time out so I went back and looked at the last few times they managed less than 275 total yards in a game and they came out the next time and put up a 7-1 ATS record in the last eight occurrences. This is nice. The Buffs are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games and this is where they have played their best football in 2018. Expect that to continue. I know the number is high but Oregon State is just straight up bad and Colorado's offense is explosive at home. After two very tough road conference games, also their first two losses of the season, the return home will be a big one for the Buffs.
Trend of the Game: Colorado is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Colorado 58, Oregon State 14
more to come...
Colorado Buffaloes -24 (10 Units)
Not a very conventional play I know with all the huge 3:00pm ET matchups we have going on today but staying from some of those is a choice I made earlier in the week and this is a game that caught my eye. Oregon State is a terrible football team and they come into this game with a 1-6 SU record on the season and have not done much better on the spread going 2-5 ATS in those games. The Beavers have one win this season and it was in Week 2 of the season against an FCS opponent where they still allowed 25 points at home. If you look back at Oregon State's last four games coming into this one they have been outyarded by a grand total of 839 yards. Things are not going well at all. It's not that the Beavers can't score, it's more that they can't stop anyone. Having said that scoring might be a bit tough to come by in this one as the Colorado defense has been good at home allowing 17.0 points per game and only 4.9 yards per play this season. Oregon State loves to establish the run (44 running plays to 34.7 passing plays per game on the road in 2018) but the Buffs allow only 3.4 yards per carry at home this season which means Oregon State, who will be playing down most of the game, have to throw. Well, Colorado's secondary has allowed opponents to complete only 48.9% of their passes at home this season for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. They have 10 sacks in three home games and the Oregon State offensive line has allowed a whopping 15 sacks in three road games. Colorado has struggled to force turnovers in 2018 but that will change today. They'll make some huge plays to pile it on.
The Colorado Buffaloes have put together quite the nice little season so far in 2018 and they look destined for a Bowl Game and can still be considered in PAC 12 Conference Title discussions. Why not? They did not play well their last two games and lost at both USC and Washington State but now they are back home where they have been at their best so far this season going 3-0 SU with wins over New Hampshire, UCLA and Arizona State outyarding those three opponents by some 536 total combined yards. All those teams are better than Oregon State. So far at home this season the Buffs are averaging 37.0 points per game and 487.3 total yards of offense on 6.4 yards per play (compared 4.5 yards per play in their last three games). OREGON STATE HAS ALLOWED 55.3 POINTS PER AWAY GAME THIS SEASON and have also allowed 546 total yards of offense per game and 7.2 yards per play on the road. My God! Colorado loves to pound the ball on the ground at home averaging 48 carries to 28 pass attempts on this field and now they get to face an Oregon State defense allowing 309.7 rushing yards on 7.1 yards per carry per game away from home this season. Colorado has been moving the ball at a clip of 9.2 yards per pass attempt at home this season and they should be able to torch this Beavers secondary that is allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt on the road and that has only 2 interceptions and 1 fumble recovery in three away games this season. The Buffs have turned the ball over only 2 times in three home games. I think they put up some massive numbers in this one and move to 6 wins in blowout fashion.
We all know how many Colorado is going to score in this one so the only real question is how many will Oregon State score? Their last time here they managed to score only 6 points in 2016 and were blown out of the water to the tune of 47-6 win by Colorado. I expect the exact same type of result in this one. There is no hope for this Beavers team who are 0-8 ATS in their last eight PAC 12 Conference games and who come into game 1-5 ATS in their last six road games in all conferences. Colorado managed only 263 total yards of offense against Washington their last time out so I went back and looked at the last few times they managed less than 275 total yards in a game and they came out the next time and put up a 7-1 ATS record in the last eight occurrences. This is nice. The Buffs are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games and this is where they have played their best football in 2018. Expect that to continue. I know the number is high but Oregon State is just straight up bad and Colorado's offense is explosive at home. After two very tough road conference games, also their first two losses of the season, the return home will be a big one for the Buffs.
Trend of the Game: Colorado is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Colorado 58, Oregon State 14
more to come...
