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Baylor Bears +14 (10 Units)
You will be hard pressed to find a large number of people betting on the 1-4 ATS Baylor Bears in this one but if you look at the public numbers this morning they are not as high on Texas as everyone believed they would be and this line has actually dropped from 16 to 14 as the week has progressed. It's very rare that Baylor doesn't get up to play Texas or play their game of the year against the Horns. Well that wasn't the case last season in a 38-7 home loss but the Bears haven't forgotten that game. In previous trips to Austin they lost 35-34 (2016) as a 4 point road dog, they won 28-7 (2014) as a 13.5 road fave, they lost 56-50 (2012) as an 8.5 point road dog and they won here in 2010 once again as an underdog. Baylor has been outyarded in only 1 game this season and that was the Oklahoma game. Their offense is the real deal averaging 32.0 points per game and 499.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.7 yards per play. The Texas defense is allowing 5.8 yards per play in their last three games, including 4.6 yards per carry which doesn't bode well against a Baylor offense who love to pound the ball (176.0 rushing yards per game in their last three). The Horns secondary is also allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt in their last three and Baylor have turned the ball over only 3 times in their last three games. The Bears should be able to grab some kind of lead in this one and should be able to match Texas score for score in a big time revenge game for them.
The Texas Longhorns are OFFICIALLY BACK!!! I haven't said that in years but they massive win in the Red River Shootout last week as a 7 point underdog solidified this for me. Having said that, this is a very dangerous spot for them. They have Oklahoma State and West Virginia coming up next and it's easy to overlook this Baylor offense who went toe-to-toe with the same Oklahoma team a few weeks ago. Texas was actually outyarded in two of their last three games coming in but they still found a way to beat both TCU and Oklahoma in those games. Baylor's defense is awful and they allow massive plays left and right but again I don't see Texas stopping Baylor from scoring big points in this one so can the offense themselves score on every drive in a letdown spot? They are averaging only 3.7 yards per carry on the ground in their last three games and that's a concern. Sure Baylor allows 9.6 yards per pass attempt in their last three and sure Texas comes in averaging 7.5 yards per pass attempt in their last three games but the Bears defensive line loves to takes risks (9 sacks in last three games) and that's been a problem for Texas (6 sacks allowed in last three games). The Horns offense has not turned the ball over a single time in three games coming in but that's going to change today as turnovers are always an issue in letdown games. Expect some points from Texas but expect the same points from Baylor.
As previously mentioned, Texas embarrassed Baylor at home last season and the Bears haven't forgotten. As Texas is trying to get over their Red River Shootout win last weekend, Baylor catches them at a perfect time here. Baylor was gashed for 200+ rushing yards in their last game so I went back and looked at the last few times they allowed 200+ rushing yards in a game and they went 3-0-1 ATS the next time out so expect a much better effort from this D-Line. For whatever reason the Road Team in this series has always been the team to back and the better team having covered 14 of the last 20 meetings. Baylor is 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Austin and with the offensive numbers they put up at Oklahoma a few weeks ago, they actually have a shot at winning this game. The Bears can be the upset special of the week here with a win. It would be so Texas to lose this game.
Trend of the Game: Baylor is 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Austin including wins in 2010 and 2014 (every 4 years and it's 2018 now).
Baylor 41, Texas 35
more to come...
Baylor Bears +14 (10 Units)
You will be hard pressed to find a large number of people betting on the 1-4 ATS Baylor Bears in this one but if you look at the public numbers this morning they are not as high on Texas as everyone believed they would be and this line has actually dropped from 16 to 14 as the week has progressed. It's very rare that Baylor doesn't get up to play Texas or play their game of the year against the Horns. Well that wasn't the case last season in a 38-7 home loss but the Bears haven't forgotten that game. In previous trips to Austin they lost 35-34 (2016) as a 4 point road dog, they won 28-7 (2014) as a 13.5 road fave, they lost 56-50 (2012) as an 8.5 point road dog and they won here in 2010 once again as an underdog. Baylor has been outyarded in only 1 game this season and that was the Oklahoma game. Their offense is the real deal averaging 32.0 points per game and 499.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.7 yards per play. The Texas defense is allowing 5.8 yards per play in their last three games, including 4.6 yards per carry which doesn't bode well against a Baylor offense who love to pound the ball (176.0 rushing yards per game in their last three). The Horns secondary is also allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt in their last three and Baylor have turned the ball over only 3 times in their last three games. The Bears should be able to grab some kind of lead in this one and should be able to match Texas score for score in a big time revenge game for them.
The Texas Longhorns are OFFICIALLY BACK!!! I haven't said that in years but they massive win in the Red River Shootout last week as a 7 point underdog solidified this for me. Having said that, this is a very dangerous spot for them. They have Oklahoma State and West Virginia coming up next and it's easy to overlook this Baylor offense who went toe-to-toe with the same Oklahoma team a few weeks ago. Texas was actually outyarded in two of their last three games coming in but they still found a way to beat both TCU and Oklahoma in those games. Baylor's defense is awful and they allow massive plays left and right but again I don't see Texas stopping Baylor from scoring big points in this one so can the offense themselves score on every drive in a letdown spot? They are averaging only 3.7 yards per carry on the ground in their last three games and that's a concern. Sure Baylor allows 9.6 yards per pass attempt in their last three and sure Texas comes in averaging 7.5 yards per pass attempt in their last three games but the Bears defensive line loves to takes risks (9 sacks in last three games) and that's been a problem for Texas (6 sacks allowed in last three games). The Horns offense has not turned the ball over a single time in three games coming in but that's going to change today as turnovers are always an issue in letdown games. Expect some points from Texas but expect the same points from Baylor.
As previously mentioned, Texas embarrassed Baylor at home last season and the Bears haven't forgotten. As Texas is trying to get over their Red River Shootout win last weekend, Baylor catches them at a perfect time here. Baylor was gashed for 200+ rushing yards in their last game so I went back and looked at the last few times they allowed 200+ rushing yards in a game and they went 3-0-1 ATS the next time out so expect a much better effort from this D-Line. For whatever reason the Road Team in this series has always been the team to back and the better team having covered 14 of the last 20 meetings. Baylor is 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Austin and with the offensive numbers they put up at Oklahoma a few weeks ago, they actually have a shot at winning this game. The Bears can be the upset special of the week here with a win. It would be so Texas to lose this game.
Trend of the Game: Baylor is 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Austin including wins in 2010 and 2014 (every 4 years and it's 2018 now).
Baylor 41, Texas 35
more to come...
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Memphis Tigers +5.5 (10 Units)
The Central Florida Knights are a great team but they are not as good as they believe they are and they are certainly not yet worthy of playing in the BCS Playoffs. Hot take? Maybe but I am not drinking the same Kool-Aid as everyone else this week. The public number this morning is well over 70% who are backing UCF in this one and it's a big mistake. Sure they have outyarded all their opponents in 2018 by quite a large margin but don't forget they did NOT outyard Memphis at home last season (753 to 726 for the Tigers) in an overtime win nor did they outyard the Tigers in three of their last four meetings. This high powered offense comes in averaging 49.7 points per game their last three games and they've done it on 6.9 yards per play. Having said that, Memphis is allowing only 21.3 points per game at home this season and allowing only 113.0 rushing yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry. This should slow down UCF and their insane running game which averages 8.2 yards per carry away from home in 2018 on 296 rushing yards per game (although the last five games they've averaged only 5.3 yards per carry). UCF rarely turn the ball over but this Memphis defense has forced 6 turnovers (3 interceptions and 3 fumbles) their last three games. UFC won't score another 62 points like they did in last year's meeting and unless they do they aren't covering this spread.
The Memphis Tigers should have ended the perfect season for Central Florida in 2017 but they lost in overtime in one of the best college football games of the season. If there was ever a revenge match it would be this one right here. This is probably the best Memphis team in quite a few years and aside from a bad loss at Tulane a few weeks ago they have been badly outyarding all their opponents and are 4-2 SU on the season. I talked a bit earlier about the Central Florida offense averaging 6.9 yards per play in their last three games coming in well the Memphis offense is averaging 7.9 yards per play coming into this game and have scored 43.7 points per game during that span. The key for me in this one is the fact that Memphis have not turned the ball over now in any of their last three games. I say this because UCF will allow points but they start the beat down parade on opponents when they force turnovers (5 in their last three games). Memphis loves to pound the ball on the ground averaging 35.7 running plays to 26.3 passing plays in their last three games and they average a whopping 6.4 yards per carry in those games. That should keep possession on their side and slow down the UCF offense enough to have a shot here as the Knights are not exactly stout against the run (allowing 4.2 yards per carry in their last three). Memphis will score points and that means they can win this.
So the public is looking to take a pretty big beatdown in this game. I remind everyone again, this is a huge game for Memphis because they know they can beat UCF after taking them to overtime in 2017 and outyarding them in three of the last four meetings. Nobody outyards the Knights. I very rarely go against the Knights on the spread but you have to pick your spots and this is a good one. They are getting pounded both offshore and in Vegas but bettors just don't realize how well Memphis matches up with them. Memphis is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games and they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games coming in. THE HOME TEAM IS 10-1 ATS IN THEIR LAST 11 MEETINGS and Central Florida is only 1-4 ATS in their last five games played at Memphis. It's just not a good spot. This game could very well go to Overtime again but I see Memphis pulling off one of the shockers of the season and winning this game straight up ending all Championship talk from this UCF team and ending one hell of a winning run. It always happens in October when it happens. MEMPHIS WITH THE SHOCK WIN OF 2018!
Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Memphis 39, Central Florida 36
more to come..
Memphis Tigers +5.5 (10 Units)
The Central Florida Knights are a great team but they are not as good as they believe they are and they are certainly not yet worthy of playing in the BCS Playoffs. Hot take? Maybe but I am not drinking the same Kool-Aid as everyone else this week. The public number this morning is well over 70% who are backing UCF in this one and it's a big mistake. Sure they have outyarded all their opponents in 2018 by quite a large margin but don't forget they did NOT outyard Memphis at home last season (753 to 726 for the Tigers) in an overtime win nor did they outyard the Tigers in three of their last four meetings. This high powered offense comes in averaging 49.7 points per game their last three games and they've done it on 6.9 yards per play. Having said that, Memphis is allowing only 21.3 points per game at home this season and allowing only 113.0 rushing yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry. This should slow down UCF and their insane running game which averages 8.2 yards per carry away from home in 2018 on 296 rushing yards per game (although the last five games they've averaged only 5.3 yards per carry). UCF rarely turn the ball over but this Memphis defense has forced 6 turnovers (3 interceptions and 3 fumbles) their last three games. UFC won't score another 62 points like they did in last year's meeting and unless they do they aren't covering this spread.
The Memphis Tigers should have ended the perfect season for Central Florida in 2017 but they lost in overtime in one of the best college football games of the season. If there was ever a revenge match it would be this one right here. This is probably the best Memphis team in quite a few years and aside from a bad loss at Tulane a few weeks ago they have been badly outyarding all their opponents and are 4-2 SU on the season. I talked a bit earlier about the Central Florida offense averaging 6.9 yards per play in their last three games coming in well the Memphis offense is averaging 7.9 yards per play coming into this game and have scored 43.7 points per game during that span. The key for me in this one is the fact that Memphis have not turned the ball over now in any of their last three games. I say this because UCF will allow points but they start the beat down parade on opponents when they force turnovers (5 in their last three games). Memphis loves to pound the ball on the ground averaging 35.7 running plays to 26.3 passing plays in their last three games and they average a whopping 6.4 yards per carry in those games. That should keep possession on their side and slow down the UCF offense enough to have a shot here as the Knights are not exactly stout against the run (allowing 4.2 yards per carry in their last three). Memphis will score points and that means they can win this.
So the public is looking to take a pretty big beatdown in this game. I remind everyone again, this is a huge game for Memphis because they know they can beat UCF after taking them to overtime in 2017 and outyarding them in three of the last four meetings. Nobody outyards the Knights. I very rarely go against the Knights on the spread but you have to pick your spots and this is a good one. They are getting pounded both offshore and in Vegas but bettors just don't realize how well Memphis matches up with them. Memphis is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games and they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games coming in. THE HOME TEAM IS 10-1 ATS IN THEIR LAST 11 MEETINGS and Central Florida is only 1-4 ATS in their last five games played at Memphis. It's just not a good spot. This game could very well go to Overtime again but I see Memphis pulling off one of the shockers of the season and winning this game straight up ending all Championship talk from this UCF team and ending one hell of a winning run. It always happens in October when it happens. MEMPHIS WITH THE SHOCK WIN OF 2018!
Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Memphis 39, Central Florida 36
more to come..
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Missouri Tigers +28.5 (10 Units)
Why the heck not? I seem to never bet on any kind of Alabama game but this seems like a great spot to do it with some quarterback questions in line for the Tide and because Missouri is actually an underrated team (I have them ranked in my TOP 50 teams in college football). Look a the last three games for Missouri and tell me they are not battle tested. The Tigers played Purdue in West Lafayette and won 40-37, they then hosted Georgia and managed to cover the 14.5 home dog spread and score 29 points while being outyarded by only 52 total yards and then they went to South Carolina last week and lost 37-35 in a game they should have absolutely won having outyarded the Gamecocks by 113 total yards. Bama's defense has allowed 362 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play in their last three games. Say what? That includes 5.2 yards per carry in those games and Mizzou is averaging 230.3 rushing yards per game. They will score some points, the spread is way too high.
The Alabama Crimson Tide are the top team in the Country and they are coming off a 34 point win at Arkansas last week but they come into this game on an 0-3 ATS spread run and they are maybe not as good as everyone thinks they are. Defensively they have been allowing some big time yards. The Tide have been favored by 28.5 or more points three times in 2018 and gone only 1-2 ATS in those games. Looking at the last three games for Alabama they run the ball 38.3 times per game and throw the ball 22.3 times per game. That will be a problem for this Missouri defense when Alabama wants to throw downfield because they allow a ton of yards in the air but the Tigers run defense has allowed only 3.4 yards per carry in their last three games and that should slow the Tide offense that is averaging 6.6 yards per carry down a bit. It's not like Missouri hasn't been run on as their last three opponents average 34.3 carries per game. Bama will score and win but by not by four touchdowns.
This is only the third all-time meeting between these two schools and the first since Missouri joined the SEC Conference. Does that change things a bit? I think it does and I say that because coming into this game Alabama is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games versus SEC Conference opponents. The Tide are also 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 40+ points in their previous game and this is not the type of game they have covered such a large spread in the last few seasons. We are talking a bout a 4+ touchdown number against a conference opponent while coming in on an 0-3 ATS run. Missouri have covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 games overall and 16 of their last 22 road games versus a team with a winning record at home. They are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight conference games. Mizzou won't win this but they will give Bama a run for their money and keep this game somewhat close.
Trend of the Game: Missouri has covered the spread in 16 of their last 22 road games versus a team with a winning record at home.
Alabama 41, Missouri 26
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Missouri Tigers +28.5 (10 Units)
Why the heck not? I seem to never bet on any kind of Alabama game but this seems like a great spot to do it with some quarterback questions in line for the Tide and because Missouri is actually an underrated team (I have them ranked in my TOP 50 teams in college football). Look a the last three games for Missouri and tell me they are not battle tested. The Tigers played Purdue in West Lafayette and won 40-37, they then hosted Georgia and managed to cover the 14.5 home dog spread and score 29 points while being outyarded by only 52 total yards and then they went to South Carolina last week and lost 37-35 in a game they should have absolutely won having outyarded the Gamecocks by 113 total yards. Bama's defense has allowed 362 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play in their last three games. Say what? That includes 5.2 yards per carry in those games and Mizzou is averaging 230.3 rushing yards per game. They will score some points, the spread is way too high.
The Alabama Crimson Tide are the top team in the Country and they are coming off a 34 point win at Arkansas last week but they come into this game on an 0-3 ATS spread run and they are maybe not as good as everyone thinks they are. Defensively they have been allowing some big time yards. The Tide have been favored by 28.5 or more points three times in 2018 and gone only 1-2 ATS in those games. Looking at the last three games for Alabama they run the ball 38.3 times per game and throw the ball 22.3 times per game. That will be a problem for this Missouri defense when Alabama wants to throw downfield because they allow a ton of yards in the air but the Tigers run defense has allowed only 3.4 yards per carry in their last three games and that should slow the Tide offense that is averaging 6.6 yards per carry down a bit. It's not like Missouri hasn't been run on as their last three opponents average 34.3 carries per game. Bama will score and win but by not by four touchdowns.
This is only the third all-time meeting between these two schools and the first since Missouri joined the SEC Conference. Does that change things a bit? I think it does and I say that because coming into this game Alabama is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games versus SEC Conference opponents. The Tide are also 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 40+ points in their previous game and this is not the type of game they have covered such a large spread in the last few seasons. We are talking a bout a 4+ touchdown number against a conference opponent while coming in on an 0-3 ATS run. Missouri have covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 games overall and 16 of their last 22 road games versus a team with a winning record at home. They are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight conference games. Mizzou won't win this but they will give Bama a run for their money and keep this game somewhat close.
Trend of the Game: Missouri has covered the spread in 16 of their last 22 road games versus a team with a winning record at home.
Alabama 41, Missouri 26
more to come...
just curious, did you back off of them after you said you like bama big in that thread which said post your best play?
gotcha. thx
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West Virginia Mountaineers -4.5 (10 Units)
I haven't been on the West Virginia gravy train yet in 2018 but I think it's time to join the party. The Mountaineers are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on the season and have been one of the most surprising teams in the Nation so far this season. Just take a look at the last few times they played here. In 2016 they won 49-19 as a -7.5 point road favorite. In 2014 they won here by 13 as a -10 point road favorite and in 2012 they won by 7 as a -3 point road fave so the number is definitely not a problem. They are arguably better than they were in all those past seasons. The Neers have outyarded every single one of their opponents so far in 2018. Their two road games this season have been at Texas Tech and at Tennessee (who beat Auburn today). The Neers averaged 41.0 points per game in those games on 518 total yards of offense and 7.7 yards per play. Jesus! Iowa State is solid against the run but at home have allowed 3.7 yards per carry. In the air, West Virginia is averaging 10.7 yards per pass attempt and an overall QB Rating of 194.0 in their two road games!!! That includes 399.5 passing yards per game! Iowa State is allowing 8.8 yards per pass attempt at home and Oklahoma was able to drop 37 on them. West Virginia might drop 40.
The Iowa State Cyclones are actually a fantastic spread team but the number is not very high in this one and they are facing one of the most explosive offenses in the Country. So far at home in 2018 they barely beat Akron a few weeks ago and the week before got crushed 37-27 by Oklahoma. They have been outyarded in 3 of their 5 games so far this season. Not good. Where is the offense going to come from to keep up with West Virginia and their prolific scoring? On the ground the Cyclones run the ball 33.5 times per game their last three games and have managed only 3.9 yards per carry in those games. West Virginia has allowed their last three opponents to average only 113.0 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry. So we move to the air where Iowa State is actually pretty decent completing 67.8% of their passes the last three games for 7.3 yards per pass attempt but West Virginia's secondary has allowed their last three opponents to complete only 58.2% of their passes for 6.6 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of only 116.7 in those games. Iowa State will score some points but West Virginia will shut them down on quite a few drives which will make points hard to come by once the Mountaineers take a lead.
So let's go back to the history of this matchup. West Virginia is 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS lifetime against Iowa State. They have won all five of their games in the series by an average margin of 15.6 points per game so again the small number is not much in this one. West Virginia is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games in this series and the road team is now 4-1-1 ATS in the last five. The Neers come into this game on a 4-1 ATS spread record on the season and with a win here they will continue to move on up in the BCS and overall standings. They have always played well in Ames and this is arguably their best team to ever play a game here. Iowa State has been kind to bettors over the last couple of seasons but this matchup is out of their league and I didn't like how they played in their two home games in 2018. Neers win big.
Trend of the Game: West Virginia is 5-1 SU lifetime against Iowa State including 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in Ames, Iowa.
West Virginia 42, Iowa State 16
more to come...
West Virginia Mountaineers -4.5 (10 Units)
I haven't been on the West Virginia gravy train yet in 2018 but I think it's time to join the party. The Mountaineers are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on the season and have been one of the most surprising teams in the Nation so far this season. Just take a look at the last few times they played here. In 2016 they won 49-19 as a -7.5 point road favorite. In 2014 they won here by 13 as a -10 point road favorite and in 2012 they won by 7 as a -3 point road fave so the number is definitely not a problem. They are arguably better than they were in all those past seasons. The Neers have outyarded every single one of their opponents so far in 2018. Their two road games this season have been at Texas Tech and at Tennessee (who beat Auburn today). The Neers averaged 41.0 points per game in those games on 518 total yards of offense and 7.7 yards per play. Jesus! Iowa State is solid against the run but at home have allowed 3.7 yards per carry. In the air, West Virginia is averaging 10.7 yards per pass attempt and an overall QB Rating of 194.0 in their two road games!!! That includes 399.5 passing yards per game! Iowa State is allowing 8.8 yards per pass attempt at home and Oklahoma was able to drop 37 on them. West Virginia might drop 40.
The Iowa State Cyclones are actually a fantastic spread team but the number is not very high in this one and they are facing one of the most explosive offenses in the Country. So far at home in 2018 they barely beat Akron a few weeks ago and the week before got crushed 37-27 by Oklahoma. They have been outyarded in 3 of their 5 games so far this season. Not good. Where is the offense going to come from to keep up with West Virginia and their prolific scoring? On the ground the Cyclones run the ball 33.5 times per game their last three games and have managed only 3.9 yards per carry in those games. West Virginia has allowed their last three opponents to average only 113.0 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry. So we move to the air where Iowa State is actually pretty decent completing 67.8% of their passes the last three games for 7.3 yards per pass attempt but West Virginia's secondary has allowed their last three opponents to complete only 58.2% of their passes for 6.6 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of only 116.7 in those games. Iowa State will score some points but West Virginia will shut them down on quite a few drives which will make points hard to come by once the Mountaineers take a lead.
So let's go back to the history of this matchup. West Virginia is 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS lifetime against Iowa State. They have won all five of their games in the series by an average margin of 15.6 points per game so again the small number is not much in this one. West Virginia is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games in this series and the road team is now 4-1-1 ATS in the last five. The Neers come into this game on a 4-1 ATS spread record on the season and with a win here they will continue to move on up in the BCS and overall standings. They have always played well in Ames and this is arguably their best team to ever play a game here. Iowa State has been kind to bettors over the last couple of seasons but this matchup is out of their league and I didn't like how they played in their two home games in 2018. Neers win big.
Trend of the Game: West Virginia is 5-1 SU lifetime against Iowa State including 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in Ames, Iowa.
West Virginia 42, Iowa State 16
more to come...
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Virginia Cavaliers +7 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Okay so hear me out on this one. This is a typical ranked road team going to an unranked home team...in October...and getting upset. It happens all the time. Miami is 5-1 SU on the season coming but have a record of only 3-3 ATS in those games. Aside from their big win here a couple of years ago, when has Miami ever played well in this stadium? They have not. In their only real true test of the season away from home, Miami crapped the bed and got smoked by LSU in the season opener. Not impressed. Sure they have outyarded every single one of their opponents in 2018 but do wins over Savannah, Toledo, Florida International, North Carolina and Florida State impress anyone? Not me. Despite averaging 33.0 points per game away from home, Miami is averaging only 5.6 yards per play in those games. This Virginia defense has been GOOD at home so far this season allowing only 15.7 points on 267.7 total yards of offense and only 4.8 yards per play. They have a shot here. The Canes are average at running the ball on the road (4.0 yards per carry) and their QB play has been below average as they have completed only 48.3% of their passes on the road. Virginia's defense is stout against the run having allowed 72.7 rushing yards per home game and allowing only 2.8 yards per carry. They have the #36 ranked run defense in the Country and Miami, who have struggled offensively away from home so far in 2018, have to face the #24 RANKED OVERALL DEFENSE IN THE NATION of Virginia. In three home games this season Virginia has 9 sacks, 4 interceptions and 3 fumble recoveries. This should be a struggle for the Canes.
It's been about four years since Virginia beat Miami but the times they have done it over the last 10 meetings have all been at home. Virginia beat the Canes here in 2010, 2012 and 2014 before finally losing in 2016. The last two meetings the scores have not been close but let's be honest, this Virginia team is better than those two versions. The Cavaliers are coming off a pretty bad loss at NC State two weeks ago (they had a BYE week last weekend so they should be well rested) but they looked damn good in big home wins over Louisville and Ohio the two weeks before (2-0 ATS in those games) outyarding their opponents by a total of 375 yards in those two games. All this talk about Miami's defense this and Miami's defense that but they've had two chances to prove themselves away from home and have not looked good either team as the Canes allow 28.5 points per game on the road on 5.3 yards per play. Virginia's offense, despite not playing the strongest schedule, is averaging 38.0 points per game in three home games, they are averaging a whopping 481.7 total yards of offense on 7.2 yards per play in those games. WHOA! They love to pound the ball on the ground and average 39.3 carries per home game on 5.7 yards per carry. Miami's run defense is allowing 3.6 yards per carry away from home. In the air, Virginia QB Bryce Perkins has been outstanding. He has a QB Rating of 170.2 in three home games and has completed 68.3% of his passes for 9.4 yards per pass attempt in those games. Miami's secondary has allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt in their two away games and have 0 interceptions and only 1 fumble recovery in those games. Virginia will score some points baby!
The home team has almost always dominated in this series but as Virginia was on the decline and Miami was on the rise the last few seasons hence the Canes winning big the last three meetings. In the four meetings in Virginia the Cavaliers have gone 3-1 SU and ATS. Looking back at their history of the last decade or so I was able to find information that Virginia is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when coming off a BYE WEEK. They are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record on the season and come into this game 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Miami has covered the spread in only 3 of their last 10 games overall, they are 1-4 ATS in their last five ACC Conference games and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a winning record on the year. THE UNDERDOG IS 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these two schools and Miami is now 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings despite winning three in a row. This is your CLASSIC UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK and I am pounding Virginia and calling for them to win this straight up.
Trend of the Game: The Underdog is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these schools.
Virginia 26, Miami-Florida 17
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Virginia Cavaliers +7 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Okay so hear me out on this one. This is a typical ranked road team going to an unranked home team...in October...and getting upset. It happens all the time. Miami is 5-1 SU on the season coming but have a record of only 3-3 ATS in those games. Aside from their big win here a couple of years ago, when has Miami ever played well in this stadium? They have not. In their only real true test of the season away from home, Miami crapped the bed and got smoked by LSU in the season opener. Not impressed. Sure they have outyarded every single one of their opponents in 2018 but do wins over Savannah, Toledo, Florida International, North Carolina and Florida State impress anyone? Not me. Despite averaging 33.0 points per game away from home, Miami is averaging only 5.6 yards per play in those games. This Virginia defense has been GOOD at home so far this season allowing only 15.7 points on 267.7 total yards of offense and only 4.8 yards per play. They have a shot here. The Canes are average at running the ball on the road (4.0 yards per carry) and their QB play has been below average as they have completed only 48.3% of their passes on the road. Virginia's defense is stout against the run having allowed 72.7 rushing yards per home game and allowing only 2.8 yards per carry. They have the #36 ranked run defense in the Country and Miami, who have struggled offensively away from home so far in 2018, have to face the #24 RANKED OVERALL DEFENSE IN THE NATION of Virginia. In three home games this season Virginia has 9 sacks, 4 interceptions and 3 fumble recoveries. This should be a struggle for the Canes.
It's been about four years since Virginia beat Miami but the times they have done it over the last 10 meetings have all been at home. Virginia beat the Canes here in 2010, 2012 and 2014 before finally losing in 2016. The last two meetings the scores have not been close but let's be honest, this Virginia team is better than those two versions. The Cavaliers are coming off a pretty bad loss at NC State two weeks ago (they had a BYE week last weekend so they should be well rested) but they looked damn good in big home wins over Louisville and Ohio the two weeks before (2-0 ATS in those games) outyarding their opponents by a total of 375 yards in those two games. All this talk about Miami's defense this and Miami's defense that but they've had two chances to prove themselves away from home and have not looked good either team as the Canes allow 28.5 points per game on the road on 5.3 yards per play. Virginia's offense, despite not playing the strongest schedule, is averaging 38.0 points per game in three home games, they are averaging a whopping 481.7 total yards of offense on 7.2 yards per play in those games. WHOA! They love to pound the ball on the ground and average 39.3 carries per home game on 5.7 yards per carry. Miami's run defense is allowing 3.6 yards per carry away from home. In the air, Virginia QB Bryce Perkins has been outstanding. He has a QB Rating of 170.2 in three home games and has completed 68.3% of his passes for 9.4 yards per pass attempt in those games. Miami's secondary has allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt in their two away games and have 0 interceptions and only 1 fumble recovery in those games. Virginia will score some points baby!
The home team has almost always dominated in this series but as Virginia was on the decline and Miami was on the rise the last few seasons hence the Canes winning big the last three meetings. In the four meetings in Virginia the Cavaliers have gone 3-1 SU and ATS. Looking back at their history of the last decade or so I was able to find information that Virginia is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when coming off a BYE WEEK. They are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record on the season and come into this game 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Miami has covered the spread in only 3 of their last 10 games overall, they are 1-4 ATS in their last five ACC Conference games and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a winning record on the year. THE UNDERDOG IS 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these two schools and Miami is now 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings despite winning three in a row. This is your CLASSIC UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK and I am pounding Virginia and calling for them to win this straight up.
Trend of the Game: The Underdog is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these schools.
Virginia 26, Miami-Florida 17
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