MistaFlava's College Football Week 2 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

2023 MistaFlava College Football Record: 0-0 ATS (+0.00 Units)

We are back for another season and I am looking to make some big time money this year and sharing some big time picks with The RX faithful. If you know my style you know I provide my own picks but I also love to work on systems and that's something I am sure to roll out at some point this season.

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE IN 2023!

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Saturday, September 9


James Madison Dukes -6.5 (10 Units)

To the naked eye the James Madison Dukes are 0-1 ATS but they did beat the brakes off of FSC opponent Bucknell in their opener last week and I really don't see how Virginia, despite being at home, is going to be able to stop this offense. Arizona transfer QB James McCloud was pretty efficient last week with a QB Rating of 233.6 despite not having to do much as the Dukes took an early lead, held the ball almost all game and ran it down the throats of their opponent from start to finish. The Dukes have one of the most underrated offensive lines in the Country and they are going up against a weak Virginia D-Line that is supported by an even weaker secondary. I don't see a blowout but I do see JMU being a problem for the Cavaliers either way.

The Virginia Cavaliers are coming off a 49-13 beatdown at the hands of the Tennessee Volunteers last week on the road and I think a lot of people are going to be shocked when they see them as home underdogs against James Madison because you know...it's James Madison. Well it's time to educate yourselves. James Madison had a TOP 25 defense last season in college football, again something most people don't know, and QB Tony Muskett looked pretty bad last week completing only 9 of 17 passes for 5.5 yards per pass attempt. The kicker? He could be out for this game and that would leave freshman QB Anthony Colandrea at the helm. He played a bit in the loss to the Vols and was 2 for 7 for 12 passing yards while doing pretty much nothing. Regardless of who plays QB for Virginia, this JMU defense is going to pounce.

There is no history of these teams playing against each other and nobody really expected to see Virginia as a home dog but here we are. James Madison comes into this game 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games dating back to last season and over the course of the last two seasons they are 5-1 ATS in their last six September games. Virginia have covered the spread in only 5 of their last 15 games overall and they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight Saturday Home Games. Yes it's a Home Opener but JMU is too good.

Trend of the Game: James Madison is 6-2 ATS in their last eight Road Games.


James Madison 33, Virginia 17

 

[MistaFlava]

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Troy Trojans +16 (10 Units)

Pretty easy to go against Troy in this game as they are coming off a 48-30 win over Stephen F Austin football last week but hey they did put up 48 points and I think they can hang with the Wildcats here. Does anyone know the last time Troy lost a football game? I don't and I bet most people don't know either. The correct answer is September 17, 2022 on a crazy play against Appalachian State. Since then they have won 12 straight games including a big win over UTSA in the 2022 Cure Bowl. They aren't going down without a fight.

Kansas State looked pretty good last week in a 45-0 win over SE Missouri (FCS side) but what does that really mean? Troy's defense was deadly in the secondary last year and a very underrated defense and this year they got better against the run which is a problem for a Kansas State team that will likely try and control the game on the ground. The Wildcats defense pitched a shutout last week but they are a huge question mark for me and I think Troy QB Gunnar Watson can do some damage. He has 41 career touchdown passes and will really test the secondary.

Troy comes into this game on a 7-3 ATS run dating back to last season and they are 6-0 ATS in their last six Road Games. 5 of those games were played on a Saturday on the road. Kansas State have also been really good over the course of the last 12 months when it comes to betting spreads but I think the line is way off in this one considering Troy's current win streak and considering the 45-0 eye candy bettors are seeing from the Kansas State game last week. I'm going to Troy to pull off a big one or at least cover.

Trend of the Game: Troy is 12-0 SU in their last 12 games dating back to last season.


Troy 27, Kansas State 22

 

[MistaFlava]

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Tulane Green Wave +7 (10 Units)

Oh man I love this play. We all know how horrendous the Ole Miss defense can be and that should be on full display in this one despite their 73-7 win over Mercer in the season opener last week. Those games against FCS opponents can be as misleading as they get and that's a great example. If you take a look back at last season this same Ole Miss team allowed 28+ points in 7 of their last 8 games and basically couldn't keep anyone out of the end zone. Did they getter on D in 2023? Absolutely not.

The Tulane Green Wave are fun to watch and they have some real talent on the outside and an experienced QB that are going to make this a living nightmare for the Ole Miss defense. The Green Wave looked damn good in their 37-17 win over South Alabama last week as -6.5 point favorites and I think a lot of people are forgetting that their last game of the 2022 season was a 46-45 win over USC in the Cotton Bowl. Yes you read that right. They can go toe to toe with anyone. QB Michael Pratt is going to be a nightmare for this Ole Miss D as he threw for 4 touchdown passes last week and now has 68 touchdown passes in his career at the school.

The last time these two teams played was in 2021 at Ole Miss and the Rebels dropped a 61 piece on Tulane in a 61-21 win. Well the time for revenge has come now. The Green Wave have dropped 11 straight games versus SEC Conference opponents but if that streak were to ever end I would say it happens here. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six September games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played on a Saturday. I'm going Tulane to win.

Trend of the Game: Tulane is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played on a Saturday.


Tulane 41, Mississippi 27

 

[MistaFlava]

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UTEP Miners +1 (10 Units)

Not sure what is going with this spread but if you shop around you can get UTEP as the underdog and if you just settle you probably have them as the favorite. I capped them as the favorite here so this one was easy. UTEP come into this game with the advantage of having played two games already. They looked awful in a loss to Jacksonville State (game they should have won) but looked a bit better last week against against Incarnate Word. The Miners offensive line can go toe to toe with Northwestern and for me that will be the difference.

Could the David Braun era have started any worse than it did against Rutgers last week or what? Not only is this Northwestern program still reeling from the scandal that rocked the Big Ten and their long time coach but they are coming off a short week after the loss to the Scarlet Knights last week on a Sunday. Not good. You have to go all the way back to October 22 of last season for the last time this Northwestern team scored more 7 points in a game. Yes you read that right. They have gone 5 straight games without scoring more than that. UTEP's defense has some playmakers and NW is in trouble again.

I know winning on the road in the Big Ten is a scary proposition for any team from Conference USA and it has not been in the UTEP playbook to do well in these situations but Northwestern comes into this game on a 10 game losing streak and they have dropped eight straight games at home. The Wildcats are also 1-6 ATS in their last seven games played as a Favorite and have now dropped 11 straight games played on a Saturday. I'm going UTEP to win this in wild fashion.

Trend of the Game: Northwestern is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a Favorite.


UTEP 20, Northwestern 13

 

[MistaFlava]

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UNLV Rebels +38 (10 Units)

This number is just way too high. We all saw what this Michigan coaching staff did last week with the big lead against East Carolina. They basically stopped shoving the ball down their opponents throat and made sure to get out of that game with no damage. Same thing happens here. UNLV won't have much success doing anything but they are coming off a 44-14 win over Bryant (FCS) last week. To cover this spread they don't have to score more than 10-14 points and they should find a way to do it. Never really the way you want to bet but this one seems logical with the Michigan coaching staff.

We all saw Michigan really dominate an opponent last week when they beat East Carolina 30-3 but a lot of bettors left with a sour taste in their mouths because they failed to cover the spread. That was mostly the result of their interim coaching staff playing things safe and not wanting to go to crazy with the Big Ten schedule just around the corner. Same thing happens here. Slow starts are everything and it could be another issue for Michigan in this one. Either way they are going to absolute dominate but they won't win by a ton for the second week in a row.

These two programs have played each other once and it was in 2015 and in Ann Arbour where Michigan won 28-7 as a -34 point Home Favorite. Interesting. UNLV comes into this game 5-1 ATS in their last six games played in September. They are not coming here to win because Michigan have won 16 straight at home but they have a chance to send the Wolverines interim staff to an early 0-2 ATS record which would make sense given that they don't have the same approach as Harbaugh. I'm going with another underdog cover.

Trend of the Game: UNLV is 5-1 ATS in their last six games played in September.


Michigan 44, UNLV 13

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava.....here's to a solid Sat. of winner's buddy.....
BOL with all your action....indy

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava....appreciate your early thought's ....indy

 

[lakrfan2000]

Good to see you again, my brutha! Have an amazing season!

 

[MistaFlava]

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Tulsa Golden Hurricane +33 (10 Units)

The entire world is ranting and raving about the Washington Huskies after their massive win over Boise State last weekend but that is where I think things are a little deceptive. This spread is massive and Tulsa is actually not a terrible team. The key to betting on large underdogs against these ranked teams is the underdogs to be able to put points on the board. Tulsa can do that. They managed 42 in their opener, despite not covering the -40.5 spread, and dating back to last season they have scored 21+ points in 8 of their last 10 games. Washington's secondary is very suspect and Tulsa has 2 quarterbacks who looked really good last week.

Washington will win and will likely score their fair share of points in this one as well but like I mentioned before I have questions about their secondary. The Huskies had a really convincing 56-19 win over Boise State last weekend and I think everyone expects the same result today. NOT SO FAST! Tulsa had a 50 pass defense last season and they bring a lot of guys back. That doesn't mean they are going to completely stop the Washington offense because nobody will do that this season but they'll at least get some stops and make life difficult enough for this spread to be covered.

These two programs have never met each other and I suspect a lot of people don't know much about Tulsa. Always a good road wager where they are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 Road Games. Washington is and always will be a good spread team to bet on with the offense that they have but again this number is a direct reflection of season long projections and the results we saw Week 1 of the season. Tulsa keeps this within the number.

Trend of the Game: Tulsa is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 Road Games.


Washington 33, Tulsa 24

 

[MistaFlava]

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North Carolina Tar Heels -19 (10 Units)

Don't get me wrong with this play. I know a lot of people are going to be on Appalachian State because they are a pretty good team and should make a nice run in their Conference but the Mountaineers are in big trouble against this Tar Heels defense just like everyone else. South Carolina's offense is no joke and at home they could barely do anything against North Carolina. Mountaineers QB Joey Aguilar looked really good last week but he's making his first career Road Start and the environment is going to be wild. North Carolina had South Carolina to -2 rushing yards of offense. Big trouble.

We all know what the Tar Heels are capable of on offense but it was their defense that was really impressive against South Carolina in the opener. My goodness. Spencer Rattler and the Gamecocks offense wasn't able to do anything against them and I can see the same happening here. Not sure why the spread is so low considering the Tar Heels believe they are a dark horse National Championship contender. QB Drake Maye is coming off a very so-so game in the 31-17 win over the Gamecocks but he's back at home and this is a great bounce back spot against an App State defense that was full of holes against an FCS opponent last week.

If you remember the game last year it was one of the wildest you will ever see. North Carolina went to Boone and won 63-61. Not happening again. Appalachian State comes into this game on an 0-6 ATS run dating back to last season and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games played on the Road. I know the game was close last year but I really see this as a bounce back spot for Maye and the Tar Heels and I think they poor it on the second half.

Trend of the Game: Appalachian State is 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.


North Carolina 48, Appalachian State 19

 

[nhlgal1001]

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Troy Trojans +16 (10 Units)

Pretty easy to go against Troy in this game as they are coming off a 48-30 win over Stephen F Austin football last week but hey they did put up 48 points and I think they can hang with the Wildcats here. Does anyone know the last time Troy lost a football game? I don't and I bet most people don't know either. The correct answer is September 17, 2022 on a crazy play against Appalachian State. Since then they have won 12 straight games including a big win over UTSA in the 2022 Cure Bowl. They aren't going down without a fight.

Kansas State looked pretty good last week in a 45-0 win over SE Missouri (FCS side) but what does that really mean? Troy's defense was deadly in the secondary last year and a very underrated defense and this year they got better against the run which is a problem for a Kansas State team that will likely try and control the game on the ground. The Wildcats defense pitched a shutout last week but they are a huge question mark for me and I think Troy QB Gunnar Watson can do some damage. He has 41 career touchdown passes and will really test the secondary.

Troy comes into this game on a 7-3 ATS run dating back to last season and they are 6-0 ATS in their last six Road Games. 5 of those games were played on a Saturday on the road. Kansas State have also been really good over the course of the last 12 months when it comes to betting spreads but I think the line is way off in this one considering Troy's current win streak and considering the 45-0 eye candy bettors are seeing from the Kansas State game last week. I'm going to Troy to pull off a big one or at least cover.

Trend of the Game: Troy is 12-0 SU in their last 12 games dating back to last season.


Troy 27, Kansas State 22

Love this play. It will be closer than people think Troy might outright W
Good luck!

 

[Jimbojpc7]

BOL FLAVA

 

[jstwinn7]

Bol Mr. F lava

 

[3pointdog]

Hey MF I heard the Tulane QB may be out. Just what I heard. Just letting you know

 

[LonghornMM]

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Tulane Green Wave +7 (10 Units)

Oh man I love this play. We all know how horrendous the Ole Miss defense can be and that should be on full display in this one despite their 73-7 win over Mercer in the season opener last week. Those games against FCS opponents can be as misleading as they get and that's a great example. If you take a look back at last season this same Ole Miss team allowed 28+ points in 7 of their last 8 games and basically couldn't keep anyone out of the end zone. Did they getter on D in 2023? Absolutely not.

The Tulane Green Wave are fun to watch and they have some real talent on the outside and an experienced QB that are going to make this a living nightmare for the Ole Miss defense. The Green Wave looked damn good in their 37-17 win over South Alabama last week as -6.5 point favorites and I think a lot of people are forgetting that their last game of the 2022 season was a 46-45 win over USC in the Cotton Bowl. Yes you read that right. They can go toe to toe with anyone. QB Michael Pratt is going to be a nightmare for this Ole Miss D as he threw for 4 touchdown passes last week and now has 68 touchdown passes in his career at the school.

The last time these two teams played was in 2021 at Ole Miss and the Rebels dropped a 61 piece on Tulane in a 61-21 win. Well the time for revenge has come now. The Green Wave have dropped 11 straight games versus SEC Conference opponents but if that streak were to ever end I would say it happens here. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six September games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played on a Saturday. I'm going Tulane to win.

Trend of the Game: Tulane is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played on a Saturday.


Tulane 41, Mississippi 27

I saw that QB Michael Pratt is out for Tulane. That is huge.

 

[tutow1951]

Thank you sir

 

[J-E-T-S!]

ESPN says QB Pratt is game-time decision.

 

[5teamparlay]

LFG !!

 

[winning777]

Picks this week?