MistaFlava's 2008 CFB Record: 17-18-1 ATS (-47.30 Units) --> 49%
I am coming off my best week of the season capping wise but have no money to show for it because of poor decision making on my largest play of the week. I did however hit a total of 5 underdogs to cover the spread and predicted all 5 to win straight up, which they all did. I am on fire in the NFL as well using a new capping method that was a calculated 6-0 ATS in CFB week 4 and 5-2 ATS this past week. Having said that, Ohio State should have been a winner and Hawaii as well. Bad luck in both, moose jobs.
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 1000 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 4-6 ATS (+3.20 Units)
Week 2: 3-3 ATS (-12.50 Units)
Week 3: 2-3-1 ATS (-29.00 Units)
Week 4: 3-4 ATS (+7.00 Units)
Week 5: 5-2 ATS (-16.00 Units)
Week 6: Pending
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. When things are not going well I don't just sit there and watch, I take action and make myself better. Good Luck to all this week!
------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday, September 30
Florida Atlantic Owls +3 (5 Units)
The Florida Atlantic Owls could be one of college football's hidden gems if you ask me because they have completely flown under the radar after a poor start to their season and they are a much better team than anyone is giving these guys credit for. Are you kidding me they are the underdog in this game? I am reading a lot of pre-season material here and the Owls were heavily favored to win the Sun Belt Conference, something thats seems to have slipped the minds of the cappers I am seeing on Middle Tennessee State large. You guys cannot forget that this is the same Florida Atlantic team that is coached by legend Howard Schnellenberger who brought the team to their first ever Bowl Game last season. Not only did the Owls play in the New Orleans Bowl but the Owls won that game 44-27 as -3 point favorite and at the conclusion of the game, coach Schnellenberger announced that he was walking into Texas in 2008 and beating the Longhorns on the road. Well so much for that as Florida Atlantic lost 52-10 but believe me this team is not that bad. They do return 10 starters on offense and 8 starters on defense and this is a MUST WIN GAME for the Owls. They are 1-3 SU to start the season having lost all three non-conference road games against Texas, Minnesota and Michigan State but like I said before, those losses by no means exemplify what this team is all about. Florida Atlantic comes into this game averaging 15.5 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done on 337.8 total yards of offense per game and 5.4 yards per play which is pretty damn good considering who this team has faced so far (a lot of Big Ten opponents don't average 5.4 yards per play against Minnesota and Michigan State). Middle Tennessee State has allowed 24.0 points per game this season and they have allowed those points on 363.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play. On the ground, I don't expect much production from an offense that loves to pass as the Owls average only 104.0 rushing yards per game this season but do also average 4.2 yards per carry in those games. Middle Tennessee State's defense has allowed 140.0 rushing yards per game this season on 4.3 yards per carry which could be a problem. RB Charles Pierre is an experienced back averaging 6.5 yards per carry this season and I expect him to have a huge game against this defense. In the air, QB Rusty Smith has been around for a long time and he is the #2 all-time passer in school history. He has completed only 46.3% of his passes this season for a whopping 878 passing yards, 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions. This is coming from a guy who had 32 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions last season so you can expect his play to increase big time now that we have reached the in-conference schedule. Middle Tennessee has allowed their opponents to complete 55.9% of their passes this season for 6.6 yards per pass attempt but the only way they are going to slow down Smith in this game is they can get some pressure on him up front. Believe it or not this offensive line is outstanding and they have not allowed a single sack all season. Not against Minnesota, not against Michigan State. Middle Tennessee State does have 5 sacks in 4 games this season but again that is not enough pressure to slow the experienced Junior down. This kid knows how to win. I am a big fan of teams that don't turn the ball over too much in the Sun Belt Conference and the Owls have fumbled the ball only two times this season and lost both of those fumbles. The bottom line is that fumbling only twice in four games is good and this game is going to be one on the turnover margin. The key for the offense in this game is going to be balance. If they continously run the ball and have Pierre pound away up the middle, things are no doubt going to open up for the best player in the Sunbelt Conference WR Cortez Gent to run his own show. This guy is as good a playmaker as there is and he is a prominent punt returner as well as the best wide receiver in the conference. Smith has been on the same page as Gent the last few seasons and his 1082 receving yards last season were good for second in the conference (he is at 255 already this year against tough opponents). I think this is a coming out party for this offense and I expect them to completely blow away an overrated Middle Tennessee State team.
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are not all that well known in the handicapping community mainly because they play in a conference that does not get much public attention and that does not make it's away onto TV very much. Having said that, the Blue Raiders are going to have a sellout crowd for their conference opener tonight and those 30 000+ fans are going to be going nuts for the first ever ESPN National Television broadcast from this stadium. I think most handicappers are looking at this the wrong way because they see a team in Middle Tennessee that beat Maryland at home in their second home game of the season and now that the Terps are going on an ACC Conference tear, immediately assume that that win makes the Blue Raiders one of the top teams in this Conference. WRONG ATTITUDE! We all saw what Middle Tennessee was capable of in their home opening game this season when they went down to Troy 31-17. However, this team is now back in the eyes of the public because they beat Maryland 24-14 at home the following week as +13 point home underdogs. What you have to understand there is that despite beating the Terps and losing to Troy, the Blue Raiders are only 3-3 ATS under coach Stockstill as home favorites and the home field advantage here doesn't really mean jack. I know they kept things close on the road against Kentucky but they followed that up with a 17 point loss to Arkansas State and I just don't think this team has what it takes to win against a much better opponent here. Middle Tennessee comes into the game averaging 17.2 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 346.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.8 yards per play in those games. Florida Atlantic looks bad defensively because they have allowed a whopping 35.0 points per game this season and have allowed their opponents to average 441.3 total yards of offense per game on 5.9 yards per play. Having said that, their opponents have been top notch non-conference opponents so the numbers are understandable. On the ground, Middle Tennessee has no running game whatsoever to speak of as they average only 68.5 rushing yards per game this season 2.0 yards per carry which is the best news Florida Atlantic has heard all season. I say that because the Owls have been eaten alive on the ground and have allowed 211.0 rushing yards per game this season on 4.8 yards per carry. Not happening this time. In the air, QB Joe Craddock has experience and he has completed 65.3% of his passes this season for 1079 passing yards, 7.5 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. Florida Atlantic's defense doesn't really anymore excuses now that conference play has arrive as they have allowed opponents to complete 64.5% of their passes this season for 7.6 yards per pass attempt in those games which makes them susceptible to big plays downfield. The key to shutting down Middle Tennessee is bringing pressure up the middle as they have their top three sacks guys from 2007 back in the lineup here and should bring the house on many occasions. The Blue Raiders have allowed Craddock to be sacked 7 times in four games but they have done a great job holding onto the ball and have not really had problems with turnovers to start the season. Florida Atlantic's defense doesn't have many takeaways defensively on the season but the key for them here is to continue pressing the ball and attacking the gaps because the Blue Raiders lack experience on offense and all you really have to do is bring pressure packages. I think without a decent running game to speak of, the Blue Raiders are once again going to be forced to throw the ball more than they want to and although Craddock is very capable, he is going up against the best secondary in the Sun Belt Conference and I think they are going to come up with some huge plays. CB's Tavious Polo and Cory Small combined for 12 interceptions in 2007 and they harassed Sun Belt opponents on many occasions. I really see these two having huge games because they are the best man-to-man coverage guys in the Conference and any throw lacking accuracy is going to be picked off. Middle Tennessee just doesn't have the weapons to win this game if you ask me. They have thrown 4 interceptions as a team, they have lost 3 fumbles and take 6.3 penalties per game this season. That doesn't sound like much but against a defense that is hungry to prove themselves, I think it's a recipe for disaster and we are about to see why.
One thing I have learned from my year's of betting college football is that oddsmakers are a bunch of clueless clowns when it comes to making lines for Sun Belt Conference games. I have a feeling they pick numbers out of hat when it comes to determining lines and by no means should Middle Tennessee State be the favorite in this game. ARE YOU KIDDING ME? WRONG TEAM IS FAVORED IT'S NOT EVEN FUNNY! I have watched quite a few Sun Belt Conference games in the past few years and I am warning you guys right now, be ready for a roller-coaster ride. This Conference can be a disaster at times, teams can be down by 30 and still win and most games are turnover fest parties that keep you on the edge of your handicapping toes. Don't say I didn't warn you here. Florida Atlantic is one of the best bounce back teams in the Country as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after being held to 20 points or less the game before. They are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine Sun Belt Conference games while Middle Tennessee has gone 0-4 ATS in their last four Sun Belt Conference games. This Owls team is nothing like the one that lost 35-14 here in 2006 as +11 point underdogs and like I will mention to you guys again, this is the best team in the Sun Belt Conference by far. They are flying under the radar looking bad after a tough non-conference schedule and this is the game that has people asking themselves WHY THE HELL WAS I ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE ANYWAYS? HooooooHoooooo!
Trend of the Game: Florida Atlantic is 7-2 ATS in their last nine conference games.
Florida Atlantic 34, Middle Tennessee 19
Wednesday, October 1
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +22 (5 Units)
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs know they are in for the fight of their lives tonight but the question here is are they up for the challenge or are they going to fold like a cheap tent the minute Boise State scores their first six? Head Coach Derek Dooley no doubt has a lot of experience having coached under the watchful eyes of Nick Saban in the past and I already like what he has done after having taken over a team that was 3-10 SU in 2006. I don't know all that much about this team but I do know that their QB is a Georgia Tech transfer and that they have some Alabama and Auburn transfers on this team as well. Louisiana Tech has the best punter in the conference, they have the best free safety in the conference, they have the best Punt Returner in the conferece and they have a few very good defensive tackles to go along with that. You have to keep in mind that this team opened the season with a 22-14 win over Mississippi State at home and followed that up with a pretty decent showing at Kansas even though they lost 29-0 and +21.5 point underdogs. The Bulldogs have had two off weeks to work on their offensive production and it showed in their third game of the season as they whalloped SE Louisiana to the tune of 41-26 and probably built a little bit of confidence heading into this game against one of the TOP 10 teams in the Country. I know Louisiana Tech has not won here since the 1997 season but in College Football anything can happen. The Bulldogs come into this game averaging 21.0 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done on 327.7 total yards of offense per game on 4.7 yards per play in those games. Not too bad, not too good. They are going to have to deal with Boise State's defense that has allowed only 15.3 points per game this season and that has allowed about 326.0 total yards of offense in those games on only 4.4 yards per play. Safe enough to say things won't come easy for the Bulldogs in this game. On the ground, the Bulldogs have been quite impressive rushing for 164.0 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry as they do have some big time playmakers. I know teams have tried to run quite a bit on Boise State because they figure they can control the clock that and it does sometimes work. The Broncos have allowed 148.3 rushing yards per game this season on only 3.3 yards per carry which should force the Bulldogs to go 50/50 on the pass-run balance. In the air, QB Taylor Bennett was the QB at Georgia Tech last season and he has come over here and completed only 41.4% of his passes for 491 passing yards, 5.0 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. Bennett has struggled but he is somewhat of a threat on the ground and he does have a decent arm that can get things done if he avoids making too many mistakes. Boise State's defense has allowed opponents to complete 59.3% of their passes this season for 5.9 yards per pass attempt in those games which means Bennett does have a shot. Boise State just hasn't been the same as years past on defense. The only way the Broncos can stop Louisiana Tech in this game is if they find a way to get some pressure on Bennett because he is horrendous under pressure. Having said that, even though the Broncos have 8 sacks in their three games this season, Louisiana Tech's offensive line has been great and they have allowed Bennett to be sacked only 2 times in three games this season which should give him plenty of time to find open receivers or dump off options. I think coach Dooley needs to keep things simple for Bennett in this game even if they go down by a few early scores. Boise State is very aggressive on the ball and they have forced 5 fumbles this season and managed to recover three of them. It's not a secret that if Louisiana Tech can't score points in this game, they aren't going to cover the spread. Having said that, they have a well balanced running game that can actually game some first down yardage against the Broncos and once that has been established, Bennett should have some chances to throw downfield. I don't know that it's realistic to say the Bulldogs can win this game but the way I see it I think they can probably catch Boise State snoozing after a week off and making this game come down to the fourth quarter is definitely not out of the question. I like having a highly touted QB to compliment a big underdog because although he has not played well this season, we all know he has it in him to get things done. Do you all smell an upset?
The Boise State Broncos are pretty damn well known for their ability to demolish just about anyone who steps into Boise and dares play against them on this blue turf. As a matter of fact the Broncos are a whopping 32-12 ATS in their last 44 games as home favorites and they are a perfect 28-0 SU lifetime in WAC Conference home games (this goes back to 2001 because that's when they started playing in this conference). The Broncos have won six straight in this series and they have won those games by an average of 24.0 points per game which means the spread is close enough that the Bulldogs have a shot here. I know Boise State is going to want to impress the National TV audience, there is no doubt about that, but I just don't think they have the same kind of offense as the past few seasons and it won't be as easy for this team to score touchdowns on one or two plays down the field like they used to do on almost every possession. That is a plus for those who like to back underdogs and although this Boise State team is BCS worthy, I just don't think they have the same explosiveness as before which means the home wins may not be as large and the spreads might have to start coming down a bit. Boise State kicked off their season with a 49-7 win over Idaho State in a non-lined game and then followed that up with a 20-7 home win over Bowling Green as -17.5 point favorite (there is the proof that things are changing). Sure they beat Oregon last weekend but that was no the road and that was against a depleted Ducks team with levels of motivation. Same can't be said for this game. Boise State comes into this game averaging 35.3 points per game this season and they have managed to score those points by averaging 448.7 total yards of offense per game on a whopping 7.0 yards per play. I don't know how long Louisiana Tech can hold them in this game because the Bulldogs have allowed 23.0 points per game and in those games have also allowed 445.0 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play with only 5 returning starters on that side of the ball. Having said that, they are a BEND BUT DON'T BREAK type of defense and holding Boise State to field goals should not be a problem on several drives. On the ground, RB Ian Johnson continues to lead the way coming off his 3rd Team All-American season in 2007 but the Broncos running attack seems to have slowed down as they average only 142.7 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry this season. Louisiana Tech has a few all-conference defensive linemen and they have allowed only 97.0 rushing yards per game this season and allowed only 3.4 yards per carry in those games. I capped this game with the assumption that Smith won't rush for his usual 150 yards per game which should force the passing game a bit too much. In the air, QB Kellen Moore has taken the brunt of the snaps for this offense and he has completed 71.8% of his passes for 840 passing yards, 10.8 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 1 interception on the season. Louisiana Tech's secondary has been picked apart in all three games this season as their opponents have managed to complete 63.0% of their passes this season for 7.6 yards per pass attempt. The Broncos offensive line has allowed 4 sacks in three games this season and the Bulldogs defense has done the same, earning 4 sacks in their first three games. Moore is a young QB and he is going to make mistakes from time to time even though he has been sensational through the first few games of his young career. I do however think that because of the youth on the offensive side of things for Boise State, they are going to be mistake prone against a more veteran Louisiana Tech defense (well the returning starters are experienced) who know a thing or two about forcing turnovers. The Bulldogs have 3 interceptions in three games and they have managed to recover 4 fumbles from their opponents which is a clear indication that they are aggressive and play risk and reward football. That can either be good or it can be bad against the Broncos because they have the ability to strike just like that but their youth has shown this season and they have been turnover prone. Boise State has fumbled 6 times and lost 4 of those fumbles this season. For a team that is supposed to be TOP 10 material I don't know that I am impressed with the lack of ball protecting care I have seen so far. There is no doubt in my mind that Moore is going to have a huge day in the air but it's the drive ending mistakes that are going to keep this game close and this is probably Boise State's most dangerous game on the schedule because they consider it an easy win and they have a tougher schedule on the slate. The hardest part about being Boise State is that they are considered the only non-BCS conference team left that can make the BCS and pressure like that can get to young players. I think Louisiana Tech is going to allow quite a few points tonight but they will also score points of their own and give these Broncos a nice run for their money. Boise State might win this but won't be by as much as people think.
I have made so much money betting on the Boise State Broncos at home no weeknights in the past that it pains me to go the other way here. I know how explosive this team can be, I know how much they like playing on National Television in front of large audiences who are more intrigued with the smurf turf than they are with the actual football game. It's no secret that Boise State has made a habit of completely demolishing opponents who visit here as they are a whopping 32-12 ATS as a home favorite since the 2000 season and that's just incredible numbers really. Having said that, you need to know when to fade this team and you have to pick your spots very well because only 12 of their last 44 opponents here have covered the spread. But hold on a second. Something is going on in Vegas. The line is way too low for my liking, I was expecting it to be more around 28 and the public bait has been chewed up and tossed right back out. I see a healthy 70% of cappers already on the Broncos and I don't like that, not the way things have gone lately. You can find all the trends in the world that tell you to fade Louisiana Tech tonight like the one that says they are 9-22 ATS in their last 31 road games or the one that says they are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games versus teams with a winning record. On that note, Boise State has dominated the last few meetings in Boise and as good as the Broncos have been, they are beatable and this is a very dangerous game for them if you ask me. I say this game is a lot closer than people think and since I don't bet underdogs unless I think they can win straight up, I am going with the upset of the year here. Can you imagine? SHOCKER HERE! WIN OR LOSE TECH SHOWS UP TO PLAY!
Trend of the Game: Louisiana Tech is 5-3 ATS versus WAC Conference opponents under Derek Dooley.
Louisiana Tech 34, Boise State 33
Thursday, October 2
Pittsburgh Panthers +13.5 (10 Units)
The Pitt Panthers are by no means a team you would pick for the mid-week upset of the week but hey what do you know, I think they can win this game. Now the reason for that being that as much as this team has been ridiculed and as much as they have looked awful in most their games the last two or three seasons, this team has managed to pull a few rabbits out of their hats and I am expecting exactly that to happen here. We are talking about a team that went 4-1 ATS last season as away underdogs under Dave Wannstedt who is probably down to his last days as head coach of this team unless they can find a a way to turn things around in a hurry. The irony here is that the Panthers need at least 7 wins to have this called a successful season because the Wannstedt era has seen them win 5-6-5 respectively which is quite unacceptable after winning at least eight games the three seasons before that under Walt Harris. This is one of the most veteran teans Wannstedt has had and his seniors really need to lead the way. The Panthers are 0-4 ATS on the season failing to cover spreads at home against Bowling Green, Buffalo and Iowa...and failing to cover the spread on the road at Syracuse last weekend. This is the first time all season the Panthers are the underdog in a game and that alone can completely change the dynamics of a team and the way they work their daily operations. We all know the Panthers can ball with USF because they were beating them at halftime last season before throwing 3 INT's and completely blowing the game in the second half. I don't expect any of that crap to repeat itself and I think the Panthers will look like the of old for the first time in a very long. Pittsburgh comes into this game averaging 24.8 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 352.8 total yards of offense per game on 4.9 yards per play in those games. South Florida has allowed opponents to score 16.8 points per game this season and they have allowed those opponents to average 243.8 total yards of offense on 4.1 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB LeSean McCoy has yet to really impress or make himself known in College Football and now is his big chance. He has led this team to 152.8 rushing yards per game on the season and in those games the Panthers have averaged 4.1 yards per carry. Running the ball on South Florida is a tough task because of their size up front. They have allowed only 58.8 rushing yards per game this season on 2.1 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Bill Stull (who was injured really early last season after completing 14 of his first 20 passes and was done for the year) has completed 57.2% of his passes this season for 800 passing yards, 5.8 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 3 interception. South Florida has allowed opponents to complete 49.4% of their passes this season for 5.7 yards per pass attempt and Stull is going to have to be sharp in this game if he wants to get around these guys. Having said that, the only real issues Stull and this offensive line have had this season is protection as he has gone down 8 times in four games and they can't seem to block properly for him. Having said that, South Florida has only 3 sacks in their first five games this season and this is the most time Stull is going to have all year if you ask me. As long as he doesn't get too carried away playing on National TV for the first time in his career, this should be a coming out party for Stull, a pretty high recruit coming out of High School. The Bulls have 6 interceptions in their first five games this season so keeping the ball on the ground and moving the ball with short screen passes is the answer here because the Bulls seem to sit back and let plays develop defensively before pouncing. I cannot get myself to back a defense like South Florida's in this game and I say that because despite the interceptions, they have not forced a single fumble all season, let alone recover a fumble in any of their games. Pitt has actually been the most disciplined team in the Conference so far this season taking only 2.8 penalties per game for 20.8 penalty yards per game. Pitt is going to come out throwing the ball and I think with the guys Stull has to throw to (everyone forgets WR Derek Kinder), the Panthers are going to have some huge plays early in this game and I am calling for them to somehow shakeup the Big East Conference even more by winning this game and going to 4-1 SU. Panthers for me here.
The South Florida Bulls are off to a perfect start on the season which is what they wanted heading into Big East Conference play this weekend but have you been all that impressed with their wins so far or do you consider some of them too close to handle and some of them just vanilla type wins? I means it's nice to be 5-0 SU and all but the Bulls are only 1-3 ATS in those games and they have not played as well as everyone says they have so I don't see for one minute how they deserve the type of respect oddsmakers have given them in this game. Central Florida has looked just brutal this season for some reason yet South Florida managed to beat them only 31-24 the second week of the season and it took overtime to bring that home. The Bulls followed that with what could have been and what should have been a loss to Kansas on National TV which was then followed up by a 17-9 win over Florida International as -29.5 point road favorites. WOW! South Florida has always been a good team to bet on as home favorites as they came into this season 14-7 ATS the last eight seasons as home favorites but they failed to cover against Kansas and I think they fail to cover tonight. This game means a lot to South Florida because if they can win this, their road to running the table just got a lot easier with only 6 more games left and having to play against six inferior opponents from the Big East Conference. The Bulls are a very good team and they are very well coached by I don't like how they match up against this Panthers defense and this is not the game to back them by this many points. Well all know South Florida can score some points as the Bulls come into this game averaging 36.4 points per game on the season. In those games they have managed to average 464.4 total yards of offense per game on 6.1 yards per play and the Panthers are going to have their hands full in this one seeing how USF has a bye week next and then a game against Syracuse. Pittsburgh's defense has done a decent job allowing 21.8 points per game this season and allowing 306.5 total yards of offense per game on 4.8 yards per play in those games. The key for Pitt's defense is going to be to find a way to stop the ground attack of South Florida. The Bulls come into this game averaging 201.4 rushing yards per game this season on 4.5 yards per carry in those games but the Panthers defense is solid, they are a bend but don't break type of group and they have allowed only 118.3 rushing yards per game this season and 3.8 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Matt Grothe is one of the more experienced QB's in this conference and he has completed 66.0% of his passes this season for 1175 passing yards, 8.2 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions on the season. The Panthers pass defense has not been all that bad and they have allowed their opponents to complete 59.1% of their passes this season for 5.9 yards per pass attempt which means they don't really allow big home run type plays even though they tend to bend but not break. I noticed in a few South Florida games this season that teams had success putting pressure on Grothe and looking at some stats, the offensive line has allowed him to be sacked 7 times in five games which could be a huge problem for the Bulls in this game. I say that because Pittsburgh has guys like 3rd Team All-American linebacker Scott McKillop who has led this team to a whopping 11 sacks in only four games this season. You can bet your bottom dollar the Panthers are going to bring all the pressure they can in this game because that should force Grothe and company to turn the ball over and possibly stall on drives. I talked about this a lot last week and it seems that some teams just don't get it. You cannot take too many penalties in Conference games like this one because they come back to haunt you in a hurry. South Florida has already taken 7.6 penalties per game this season which has cost them a cool 57.0 total yards per game. The Panthers are aggressive when they tackle as they have forced four fumbles in four games and have managed to intercept two passes. However I think that changes tonight because when McKillop and DE Greg Romeus get their hands on or close to Grothe, he will no doubt make the ill advised throws he has made many times in his career. I know I sound like a broken record but penalties are going to be huge in this game and I don't think coach Leavitt has the discipline tactics needed to win games big or let alone win games period in Big East Conference play. Very dangerous spot for the Bulls here.
No matter what you say to me about this game, the Panthers should not be underdogs by this many points. Not only is this an in-conference game with first place on the line but this is a battle that has gone on for a few years now and both these teams have provided us with a few thrillers over the years. The two times Pitt came to South Florida, they won 43-14 in 2004 and lost by 10 points here in 2006 as -4.5 point favorites. This is the first time all season that Pittsburgh is the underdog which again is another reason I am backing them here. Too many teams in college football look very good as underdogs but when slapped with the favorite tag, they pretty just fold and pack things up. The South Florida Bulls are ranked #16 in the Country right now and the last time Pitt was on the road playing against a ranked team, it was their 13-9 win over West Virginia last season as +29 point underdogs. This is actually only the second time in the Wannstedt era that they are on the road against a ranked opponent. Let's make it 2-0 ATS please. For whatever reason Wannstedt has these guys playing in October as the Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played in October but they have not been good in conference action or in games played on a Thursday. South Florida has struggled big time on the ATS front this season and as good as they have been at home the last few seasons, they are currently 0-6 ATS in their last six games versus opponents with a winning overall record. Can you say overrated? I personally have this team ranked #29 in the Country, right out of the TOP 25 for their poor performances. UPSET ALERT AS ALWAYS ON A THURSDAY!
Trend of the Game: South Florida is 0-6 ATS in their last six games versus teams with a winning overall record.
Pittsburgh 24, South Florida 21
Friday, October 3
Cincinnati Bearcats -3 (5 Units)
The Cincinnati Bearcats would probably rather be playing against a Big East Conference opponent right now like most of their conference foes instead of having to play a road game against a Marshall team is going to be jacked up for some football on National TV. Having said that, this is a chance for this team to head into Big Eas Conference play next week with a very decent 4-1 SU record and I don't see any reason for them not to be excited about playing on National TV whether it be at home or on the road. I don't quite understand the line for this game and there must be something I am missing about Marshall. Cincinnati opened the season with a blowout win over Eastern Kentucky in which they followed that up with a 52-26 loss to Oklahoma as +22.5 point underdogs. Believe me when I say that scoring 26 points against Oklahoma is pretty damn good seeing how they are the #1 team in the Country right now. The Bearcats then took a week off, regrouped and came back pretty damn impressive in their 45-20 home win over Miami Ohio which they followed up with a sloppy 17-15 win at Akron this past weekend (making this one heck of a short week for them). Brian Kelly is a very good head coach if you ask me and he lives for games that are played on TV where he can showcase what he is made of. QB Dustin Grutza, the catalyst in a 40-14 Cincinnati win at home over Marshall, is out for the season so there are a lot of questions right now at the QB level. Having said that his replacement has been found and the Bearcats should roll in this one. Cincinnati comes into this game averaging 32.0 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging a whopping 425.5 total yards of offense per game and 6.2 yards per play in those games. Marshall's defense has been atrocious despite returning 9 starters to this lineup and they have allowed 26.2 points per game this season and allowed a whopping 440.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.7 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Bearcats should have some success running the ball in this game as they average 138.0 rushing yards per game this season and average a healthy 4.1 yards per carry with a core of young and inexperienced running backs. Marshall has not been able to stop the run all season as they have allowed 158.4 rushing yards per game this season on 4.4 yards per carry. Now I already mentioned that star QB Dan Grutza is out for the season pretty much and the concern was when he went down that this team did not have an experienced backup. Well it looks like they found their man as QB Tony Pike (who has been burried on the depth chart for 3 years now) has completed 67.1% of his passes this season for 634 passing yards, 8.3 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdowns and 1 interceptions which is quite incredible for a guy who threw 3 interceptions in only 20 pass attempts last season. What I like about Pike is that he is mobile and moves well in the pocket. Marshall's defense has allowed opponents this season to complete 59.7% of their passes for 7.0 yards per pass attempt and they are extremely prone to the deep ball, something Cincinnati needs to go after from the getgo in this game. The offensive line for the Bearcats has been good even though they have allowed 6 sacks in four games but I don't think they should have too many problems protecting Pike tonight as Marshall does not have a pass rush worth discussing and they have only 5 sacks in four games this season. I have tried to explain this to other cappers way too many times over the years. You cannot back a team that does not force turnovers becasue unless they completely dominate this game and can find a way to control the clock, the fact that they have only 3 interceptions and have recovered noly 3 fumbles is just not going to work against a team like Cincinnati that can score points in bunches. The Bearcats have had a problem with fumbles as they have lost 5 fumbles in only four games this season but again this Marshall defense lacks aggressiveness and they lack the knack for forcing turnovers. One concern with this Cincinnati team has to be penalties because they average about 8.5 penalties per game this season but I think coach Kelly will have these guys in check tonight. The key for the Bearcats is to control the game on the ground, keep things simple for Pike who is making his first start on National TV and pound away with some deep balls on second down and short. Marshall is not a good football team, their defense is atrocious and I just don't see them stopping Cincinnati at any point of this game.
The Marshall Thundering Herd suck. Plain and simple they suck and I don't know who in their right minds decided to make this the Friday Night Lights ESPN game of the week. I mean why in the world would anyone want to see this team play unless they have something special planned and unless they are going to keep this game close, which I just don't see them doing. The Herd are coming off a pathetic 3-9 SU season where they also went 4-6-1 ATS in those games and head coach Mark Snyder either needs to be fired or something needs to be done here. Snyder has an all-time record of 15-25 with Marshall and he has yet to record a winning season, something the program should be ashamed of based on how far they have come. Yes the Thundering Herd are off to a 3-2 SU record this season and they have already matched last season's win total but their wins have come against Illinois State, Memphis and an impressive win at Southern Mississippi. However when they have faced bigger conference schools like Wisconsin and West Virginia, the Thundering Herd have lost by an average of 31 points per game and I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing happen tonight. Having said that, Marshall is 6-1-1 ATS the last eight seasons as a home underdog and that alone has prompted me to keep a small unit play on this game because I think something is going on. Marshall comes into this game averaging 20.6 points per game on the season and they have managed to get that done on 338.8 total yards of offense per game and 5.3 yards per play which is not too bad. Cincinnati's defense is not as good as last season's defense and they have allowed 23.5 points per game this season and in those games they have allowed 361.5 total yards of offense on 5.3 yards per play. So don't be surprised if Marshall comes out early and scores some points to take the lead. There is no need to panic. On the ground, the Thundering Herd are averaging 144.6 rushing yards per game this season and they have done that on 4.5 yards per carry. Problem there is that Cincinnati's front seven on defense are massive and they have allowed only 103.8 rushing yards per game on 3.1 yards per carry even after facing Oklahoma. Without a running game to fall back on, Marshall will have to move their attack to the air where QB Mark Cann has not proven he can be consistent as he has completed only 50.7% of his passes this season for 943 passing yards, 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions on the season. Cincinnati's pass defense has allowed opponents to complete 68.6% of their passes this season for 7.4 yards per pass attempt which has me a bit concerned here. I know they have played some pretty good passing teams but they need to improve in the secondary and they need to improve fast. The Bearcats do not generate much pressure up front and both Wisconsin and West Virginia had problems pressuring Cann in their respective games against Marshall. I do like the chances this secondary takes as they have 5 interceptions in four games this season and they have always been a high risk high reward coverage type of team. However, with Marshall lacking a running game that can be effective in this game, the Bearcats have no excuse as to why they wouldn't be able to drop more guys into coverage to help. We all know Marshall is going to try and get all fancy on us in this game as they are on National TV, they are in front of their fans and they are in need of a big win for this program to complete it's revival but I'm not too sure they have what it takes to beat a Brian Kelly team that definitely doesn't want to lose this game. I don't doubt Cann is probably going to have one of his best games all season but he is going up against the best secondary (talent wise and on paper) in the Big East Conference and there is no doubt in my mind that he is going to get picked off on more than one occasions. Those turnovers and possible touchdowns by the Bearcats defense are going to be the difference in this game and I think this defense is due for a big game with some big plays. Marshall is going down hard, screw the home dog.
Guys before you bet this game, and this is why I am betting only $500 on the game, please be advised that MARSHALL IS 4-1-1 ATS AS A HOME UNDERDOG UNDER MARK SNYDER and 6-1-1 ATS AS A HOME UNDERDOG THE LAST EIGHT SEASONS. Approach with caution because something is up with this game and Vegas knows what they are doing setting what looks to be an easy line for the game. Make no mistake about it. Cincinnati is the better team and you almost never see Marshall as a home underdog but this should be an interesting game. Coming off such a pathetic performance against Akron, Cincinnati needs to win this game and they need to make a statement in the wide open Big East Conference. Cincinnati is one of the best bounce back teams when it comes to rebounding from bad or mediocre offensive performances. The Bearcats are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games where they scored 20 points or less in their game before and they have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 games versus opponents from Conference USA. The Bearcats have actually been an ATS machine the last little while as they have covered 16 of their last 25 games (2 of them were a push) and they usually play well against good home teams like Marshall. The Thundering Herd on the other hand have not been good against other conference going 1-7 ATS in their last eight games versus non-conference opponents and 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus Big East opponents. I really think Cincinnati runs these guys into a wall and dominate this game.
Trend of the Game: Marshall is 1-7 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.
Cincinnati 38, Marshall 19
Saturday, October 4
Duke Blue Devils +14.5 (10 Units)
The Duke Blue Devils have me on their side for the very first time ever in my college football capping career and believe me when I say I think it was worth the wait. I have been following this team since the beginning of the season when several experts pegged them to finish anywhere but the ACC basement and that caught my eye because they have been stuck in that basement for the past who knows how many years. Well the Blue Devils have not disappointed, my rankings have these guys RANKED AS THE 6TH BEST TEAM IN ACC CONFERENCE and as dumb as that sounds, i'm dead serious. We are talking about a team that has won a combined 3 games the last four seasons coming into this year that has now started the season 3-1 SU. Can you believe these guys actually have more wins now then they have had the last four seasons? That just goes to show how much of a good job head coach David Cutliffe has done with these kids. He has SEC Conference experience from his days with Ole Miss and I really have confidence in the potential coach of the year in college football. Sutcliffe is a lifetime winner with a 44-29 W/L record as a college head coach and he finally has the kind of team that Duke has been wanting for the last who knows how many seasons. The Blue Devils have wins over James Madison, Navy and Virginia and if you ask me they should have beat a very good Northwestern team. Duke comes into this game averaging 30.8 points per game this season which is impossible to believe considering they have not averaged more than 20 points per game in about 10 seasons. In those games the Blue Devils are averaging 372.5 total yards per game and they are also averaging 4.8 yards per play. Georgia Tech's defense has always been solid this season as always and they have allowed only 14.3 points per game on the season. They have also allowed only 293.5 total yards of offense per game and allowing only 4.1 yards per play. This won't be easy for Duke but they can do it. On the ground, the Blue Devils don't have much of a running game as they average 139.8 rushing yards per game and average 3.4 yards per carry. However, Georgia Tech is as tough as it gets up the middle and traditionally they have had very good run defense. This year however they have allowed 137.3 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry which gives Duke a chance to run some yardage on the ground. In the air, QB Thaddeus Lewis has been the backbone of this team for quite some time now and he has completed 61.3% of his passes this season for 874 passing yards, 6.4 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions on the season. Georgia Tech's defense is not as good as people think and they have allowed opponents this season to complete 58.8% of their passes for 4.6 yards per pass attempt. The QB protection has been outstanding by this Duke offensive line as Lewis has been sacked only four times in four games this season and he has kept the mistakes to a minimum with only 2 interceptions. Georgia Tech loves bringing pressure and Lewis better be ready for this because they have 11 sacks in four games played this season and I don't doubt they are going to blitz on consecutive downs trying to flustre the Junior Quarterback who has led this team to early season glory. The Yellow Jackets also have 7 interceptions defensively so it would be wise if Duke could run some clock and control the ground game against a run defense that is not as good as seasons past. The Blue Devils have fumbled the ball only 1 time in four games this season and ball security is going to be crucial for this team if they are going to have a shot to win the game. This is a very well disciplined team that has averaged only 3.5 penalties per game this season and that has cost them only 31.5 penalty yards per game. The key to keep up in this game is going to be establishing RB Clifford Harris on the ground and creating some gaps to allow Lewis to unload when he needs to. Lewis knows he won't have much time in this game but he is pretty mobile and he has quick feet which really makes a difference here. I expect a lot of play action, a lot of screen passes and some very good play calling by Sutcliffe and his crew of coaches. Sutcliffe was screwed over by Ole Miss, he is back with a vengeance and I think he leads his team to the biggest win in team program history.
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackers were expected to finish near the bottom of the ACC Coastal division when the season started (same can be said about the Duke Blue Devils) but much like their counterparts, they have really come a long way, they are playing well for their new head coach and there is a buzz right now in Atlanta that we have not seen in a very long time. The Jackets have a brand new head coach in Paul Johnson and so far so good as he has led them to a 3-1 SU record to start the season and seeing how Duke has the exact same record, these two teams are battling for position in the standings. Wouldn't it be something if either one of these teams made the ACC Conference Title game after being picked to finish near the bottom of the standings in the pre-season polls? Georgia Tech has only 9 returning starters this season so I expect things to get a little rougher as the season moves along and it's games like this that are going to make or break this team and their new head coach. GT is coming off a 38-7 win over Mississippi State two weeks ago and prior to that they beat both Jacksonville State and Boston College but then lost to Virginia Tech at home in a crazy ACC Conference showdown between two old foes. What I do know about this team is that they are 3-0 ATS on the season right now and they have been the most profitable teams to bet on in the ACC Conference. Georgia Tech comes into this game averaging 28.8 points per game this season (I find it hilarious that Duke averages more than them) and in those games they have also managed to average 401.5 total yards of offense and 6.8 yards per play which is impressive. Duke's defense has definitely improved over the years and this season more than ever as they return 10 starters on that side of the ball and have allowed only 16.3 points per game this season. In those games this team has allowed only 307.0 total yards of offense per game and they have allowed only 5.1 yards per play as well. On the ground, Georgia Tech is going to finish #1 in the Country in rushing yards per game as they average 306.8 rushing yards per game on 6.5 yards per carry and that could somewhat be a problem for Duke who have allowed 145.5 rushing yards per game this season for 4.1 yards per carry. Now it's not a secret that the Jackets are going to pound away on the ground but what Duke needs to do is what they have done all season and that's ensure that they don't get beat on the deep ball in the air. QB Josh Nesbitt has completed only 48.5% of his passes this season for only 269 passing yards, 8.2 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 1 interception on the season. That's nothing flashy but he does have 290 rushing yards to go along with that and the key to this game is containing him on the ground and forcing him to throw the ball, something he sucks at big time. The Blue Devils have allowed opponents to complete only 47.9% of their passes this season for 6.7 yards per pass attempt and now that they know they have to stop the run, I don't see why they can't drop a few more guys into contain knowing the Jackets have problems throwing the ball anyways. If anything make these guys beat you through the air and don't waste your time defending long passes because they don't have much. The Blue Devils have a perfect team for some contain play because the LB's are stay at home and they don't blitz much to start with. The Duke secondary has come up with some huge plays this season as they have 6 interceptions in four games and that comes from forcing other teams to throw when they do not want to have to throw. The big issue I have with Georgia Tech and this is the difference for me in this game, is the fact that they have fumbled a whopping 8 times already this season and they have lost 7 of those fumbles. Duke, although they do not force many fumbles, have been very opportunistic and pounced on other teams mistakes as they have recovered 4 fumbles in three games this season. You have to remember that this Duke defense faced another run oriented offense in Navy and they had no problem beating those guys. Georgia Tech is a good team but once you figure out how to shut down the run they don't have much else and I think Duke can continue to play well here. They beat Navy 41-31 so that goes to show that as much as their defense is going to allow points in games, the offense is right there ready to pick things up for them. Georgia Tech better watch out.
DUKE IS GETTING NO RESPECT AND VEGAS IS ABOUT TO MAKE MONEY OFF PUBLIC SQUARES! Both teams have new head coaches, both teams are going through changes, yet both teams find themselves near the top of the ACC Conference standings. I know it seems like a complete mismatch on paper but how about giving Duke some credit for almost knocking off Northwestern and beating the same Navy team that just knocked off Wake Forest last weekend? I mean they were -7 against Virginia on the weekend but now all of a sudden they are a two touchdown underdog against Georgia Tech. Weird. To tell you guys a bit more about coach Sutcliffe, he is coaching with a big time chip on his shoulder having been fire at Ole Miss after his first losing season. The worst part is that the firing came after Sutcliffe became the first Ole Miss coach to have a winning season in his first five seasons with the program. One thing is for sure, this guy can coach. I know Georgia Tech has pretty dominated this rivalry (basketball mainly) the last little while but things are about to change drastically. Duke is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games. Georgia Tech, even though the team is different now, is 0-7 ATS in their last seven games that follow a bye week and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games that follow a win of 20+ points the game before. This is not a team I would ever bet on at home and don't say I didn't tell you when Duke wins this game. BLUE DEVILS WITH THE SHOCKER!
Trend of the Game: Duke is 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
Duke 27, Georgia Tech 24
Kentucky Wildcats +16.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Kentucky Wildcats are hungry, they are bored and I have a very strong feeling they are cooking up a huge upset in coming weeks. Hold on...how about this week? I was on Alabama large last week when they beat Georgia and I am getting very similar feelings about Kentucky the way I was getting Crimson Tide waves last week. Rich Brooks and his team are not off to the best of starts this season, oh wait they are 4-0 SU, but that does not mean they don't have it in them to make it to a Bowl Game. I don't know about you guys but I still remember this team lighting up the Louisville defense for 27 points in their season opening game this season and the last time I checked they pounded away on a hapless Western Kentucky team at home last weekend. That makes Brooks and his guys 2-1 ATS on the season and although I don't think they have played all that well, they have done enough to win and prepare for a very tough in-conference schedule they have to face in coming weeks. They are one of the only SEC teams that has not played a conference game to date and that has them flying under the radar a little bit. This team has only 12 returning starters and that could be a concern but Brooks has dealt with this in the past and there is no doubt they come into Alabama trying to play the spoiler role they have endeared the last few seasons. Kentucky comes into this game averaging 31.5 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 352.3 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play in those games. Alabama's defense is tremendous as we saw on Saturday but they allowed quite a few points and have now allowed 13.4 points per game this season. In those games they have allowed only 259.4 total yards of offense and have allowed 4.1 yards per play. I know things are not going to be easy for Kentucky but it all starts on the ground where they have averaged 169.8 rushing yards per game this season and have managed to average a very decent 4.5 yards per carry. This is an outstanding group of RB's and I think that even tough Alabama allows only 54.0 rushing yards per game this season on 2.3 yards per carry, the Wildcats can throw some different looks and different formations out there to confuse the Tide. In the air, QB Mike Hartline has not been all that good but he has not been bad either as he has completed 58.5% of his passes this season for 633 passing yards, 5.1 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes and 1 interception on the season. I don't know how much the Wildcats want to throw the ball here becaue Alabama has allowed opponents to complete only 55.8% of their passes this season for only 5.2 yards per pass attempt but they can be beat with the right play calling and this coaching staff knows how to work with young guys. The offensive line has been great this season as Hartline has been sacked only 2 times in four games and that's good news because Bama loves bringing pressure and they have a few big guys up front who can really disrupt a backfield and create some problems for opposing offenses. What you really have to like about Kentucky here is that they play a simple and sound kind of football that has seen them lose only two fumbles all season (in four games anyways) and they have thrown only 2 interception all year and have taken only 5.5 penalties per game this season. Alabama's secondary has been quite solid this season recording 9 interceptions in only five games but again the offense is run on a smooth note and I think Hartline is going to be efficient much like Matthew Stafford could not be last week. WR Dicky Lyons Jr. is one of the best short yardage receivers in college football and you do not need to hit home runs against this Bama defense. As long as you move the chains, hit Lyons with some quick slants across the middle and run the ball when Bama doesn't expect it, you can definitely beat this Tide team. Their defense is a bit overrated right now because of what they did on Saturday and although you have to have respect for them, I think you come at them with everything you have, keep it simple and make them pay for a laid back approach to the game. kentucky wins if you ask me.
The Alabama Crimson Tide are on top of the world right now. They are the #2 team in the Country, they are coming off the biggest win in recent program history and once again Nick Saban is looking like a college football head coaching genius the way he has turned things around for these guys. This is only his second season with the team but the guys he has brought on board are already making a huge impact on a weekly basis and Alabama is not only 5-0 SU on the season but they are 4-1 ATS in those games with their only ATS loss coming against a Tulane team they took lightly in Week 2 of the season as -29 point favorites, winning only 20-6 in that home game. So what you have to keep in mind is Alabama was coming off that huge primetime win over Clemson the week before and once again they were dropped into a big time letdown situation spot where they barely made it out of there alive against a team from the Conference USA. I don't consider playing against Arkansas a real challenge and apart from the Georgia and Clemson games on the road as underdogs, I don't know that I would trust the Crimson Tide to win big like they did in those games. College Football is all about spot betting and this is a very bad spot to be on Alabama. With the bye week coming up after this game, I just don't see these guys having that much interest in a game where they are favored by more than two touchdowns. Alabama comes into this game averaging a whopping 37.0 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 376.8 total yards of offense per game and 5.9 yards per play on the season. That's pretty good but then again so is Kentucky's defense. They are by no means flashy nor can you name me more than one guy on this defense. However they have allowed only 5.5 points per game this season and they haev allowed only 227.5 total yards of offense in those games on 3.9 yards per play which is pretty damn good. On the ground, Alabama has been tearing through opponents and are averaging 215.2 rushing yards per game this season on 5.2 yards per carry in those games. However, Kentucky is probably going to have something to say about all this as they have allowed 72.5 rushing yards per game this season and have allowed 2.5 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB John Parker Wilson has been outstanding and has turned into a real decent QB that will one day play in the NFL if you ask me and he has completed 62.7% of his passes this season for 747 passing yards, 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdown passes and 1 interception in his final year at the school. He is going up against a Kentucky defense that has allowed opponents to complete only 47.5% of their passes this season for only 5.3 yards per pass attempt in those games. What I have not been too impressed with is the breakdowns in coverage on the pass rush as Alabama has allowed Parker Wilson to be sacked 5 times in 5 games this season and that could be a problem if Kentucky decides to bring the house as they have 5 sacks in 4 games this season. I know Wilson does not throw INT's much this season but he is bound to start as he threw 12 interceptions and 18 touchdowns in 2007 and the bad habits are probably just around the corner against a defense that has 5 interceptions in four games this season. Kentucky has managed to recover a fumble in every single one of their games this season and this defense likes to roam around and create turnovers. Alabama is the most disciplined team in the SEC but I have a feeling that when things don't go too well in this game they will probably get a litte frustrated and they will probably start taking unecessary penalties. Anyone who expects another peformance by this offense like the one against Georgia is out of their minds. I know the team returns home but there is nothing you can do about a letdown spot and the Tide just don't haev the same mojo as they had last week. That's not to say they can't win the game but I just don't think they can win by this many points. If Tulane was able to stay within 14 points of the Crimson Tide a few weeks ago, there is no reason in the world this Kentucky team can't do the same and quite possibly pull off the straight up upset. Alabama is good but I don't back them in spots like this, not at home, not as a favorite. ROLL WILDCATS ROLL!
Have you guys ever heard of a letdown game? Because if there ever was a letdown spot to be in, it would be this one. Do you all remember what happened to Alabama after they beat Clemson earlier this season? They came out the next week and barely got by Tulane as a -29 point favorite at home. Not many people remember but Kentucky has been known to spoil a party or two in their time and something tells me they have it in them this time around as well. The Wildcats are not going anywhere in the SEC this season but they can play spoiler and I guarantee right now that before the end of this season, these guys are going to upset a ranked opponent at home or on the road. Make that a TOP 10 opponent is going to go down to the Wildcats. Moving on. I actually think Alabama is the top team in the Country right now because of their big win last week but you are only as good as your next loss and the SEC has been known for BCS Title Game hopes busting upsets over the years. It happens every single season and the Wildcats have been preparing for this game for weeks now. Kentucky is 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games this season and what you cappers taking Alabama really need to know is that the Crimson Tide are only 7-19-2 ATS in their last 28 home games which means that they have covered the spread in only 7 of their last 28 home games which is pathetic. THIS IS A GREAT SPOT TO ONCE AGAIN TAKE AN UNDERDOG PLAYING A LETDOWN TEAM! Kentucky win this bitch or comes close anyways.
Trend of the Game: Alabama is 7-19-2 ATS in their last 28 home games.
Kentucky 19, Alabama 16
Vanderbilt Commodores +4.5 (10 Units)
The Auburn Tigers have shown me enough this season to prove that when they win games it won't be by more than one or two points. So even though they are going to make it to a post-New Years Day Bowl Game, they are not going to do it pretty and they are not going to blow away opponents. Well not conference opponents anyways. If you don't know what I am talking about by now you should take a look at this 4-1 SU Auburn team and notice that all three of their SEC Conference games have been decided by five points or less and now that they are on the road, I just don't see how in the world this game would be any different. Auburn is actually ranked 28th in the Country in my personal rankings and that is a few spots below what I have Vanderbilt ranked at. Auburn has four wins but they could easily have four losses as their 3-2 win over Mississippi State could have gone either way and their 14-12 win over Tennessee could have also gone either way (both ATS losses by the way). History is on the side of Auburn in this game because they have won 13 straight games versus Vanderbilt but this is not an easy place to win and Auburn is the one team I just cannot back when they are favored on the road. They are already 0-1 ATS as road favorites this season almost losing to a horrendous Mississippi State team on a crazy SEC night. Apart from their blowout win the last time they were in this place, Auburn has always struggled in this place winning by only 3 points in 2001, by only 4 points in 1993 and by only 2 points in 1991. Auburn comes into this game averaging only 19.8 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done on 329.4 total yards of offense per game and 4.7 yards per play which is not good enough in my books to make a run at this conference title. Vanderbilt's defense has been quite a surprise this season as they have allowed only 17.0 points per game on the season and have allowed only 364.3 total yards of offense per game this season allowing 5.3 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Auburn loves the run and that is no secret as they average 156.2 rushing yards per game this season and have also averaged 3.8 yards per carry. Vanderbilt's run defense has really improved over the years and they have allowed only 124.3 rushing yards per game this season and have allowed 3.9 yards per carry in those games. That should force Auburn to throw, somethign they absolutely wish they never had to do. QB Chris Todd has completed 57.7% of his passes this season for 815 passing yards, 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions which is not good and not about to win any conference titles if you ask me. Vandy's pass defense has allowed opponents to complete only 54.1% of their passes this season for 6.6 yards per pass attempt so you can beat them with the deep ball but you can't beat them on short routes. Too bad Todd doesn't have a deep ball threat in his arm. I know the offensive line has had problems for Auburn because they have allowed 6 sacks in five games this season but now they have to deal with a Commodores defense that has a whopping 13 sacks in four games this season making them the best pass rushing team in the SEC Conference so far this season. This is exciting stuff if you're with me on Vanderbilt knowing how much pressure they can generate in this game. This defense has also caught 10 interceptions on the season and they have forced a whopping 8 fumbles in only four games. You want to talk about a tough defense that punishes opponents, this is the one guys. Auburn has been badly plagued with turnover problems as they have fumbled the ball a crazy 10 times in five games this season and they have lost half those fumbles along the way. When you have a defense capable of forcing this many turnovers going up against a team that cannot hang onto the ball, you know some big plays are on the way and Vanderbilt's defense could have one hell of a game against this offense that will probably sleep like they have all season. I don't know how someone can back a team that averages 7.2 penalties per game like Auburn does when they are going into a ranked opponents house as road favorites in a spot that screams SEC road loss. I will be betting no Auburn again this season but not here, not now and not in a game I see them losing.
The Vanderbilt Commodores are making people some mad cash this season and if you think for one minute I am goign to sit back and watch all of that happening without getting my own piece of the pie, you are out of your damn mind. How can you not salivate at the mouth for this matchup knowing that Vanderbilt, one of the big time surprise teams in NCAA football this season, has had an entire week off to prepare for this game, at home, in front of their home crowd with a perfect record on the season. I mean it does not get any better than that for a team that was supposed to have a losing record this season and regardless of what anyone says, Vanderbilt is a better football team right now than Auburn, hands down, no doubt. The Commodores opened their season with a blowout win over Miami Ohio as underdogs and they followed that up with a 24-17 home win over South Carolina and a 38-21 home win over Rice. Two weeks ago oddsmakers doubted these guys once again making them a +7 point underdog at Ole Miss but the Commodores once again proved the oddsmakers won and brought the bacon home with an impressive 23-17 win. That makes them 2-0 SU and ATS when the underdog this season (well they are 4-0 ATS anyways) and they have won both those games as underdogs by an average margin of 14 points per game. This should be no different if you ask me. Vanderbilt comes into this game averaging a whopping 29.8 points per game this season and they have managed to get that by a very ironic 282.8 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play in those games. That's super low if you ask me but their defense does all the work and the offense finishes off drives deep in their opponents territory. This is going to be the toughest test for this offense as Auburn has allowed only 10.6 points per game this season and in those games they have allowed only 246.0 total yards of offense and 3.8 yards per play in those games. Watch out Vandy you have some work to do here boys. The Commodores, much like Auburn, love to run the ball as they average a whopping 202.0 rushing yards per game this season and have done that by also averaging 4.6 yards per carry in those games. I don't think Auburn really cares how much this team can run at home or on the road because the Tigers have allowed only 92.2 rushing yards per game this season and held opponents to only 2.9 yards per carry in those games. That's just crazy. However, I do like the prospect of Vanderbilt moving the ball throught the air as QB Chris Nickson can do just about everything and he has completed 57.7% of his passes this season for 292 passing yards, 5.6 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions (not bad for a guy who has really led this team and was a backup last season). He has also run for 270 yards and 4.8 yards per carry this season. Auburn's pass defense has allowed opponents to complete only 51.2% of their passes this season on 4.6 yards per pass attempt in those games. The play calling is not going to be easy in this game because if you run the ball you probably get stuffed and if you pass the ball on every down you risk having to punt most of the game unless you can make some big plays. So in the end what I think is going to happen here is that Nickson is going to have to move out of that pocket most of the game and confuse the Auburn defense. The Tigers have 11 sacks in five games this season and they are very dangerous on the pass rush but having a mobile QB is exactly what you need to beat this defense and Nickson should have a huge game. He has been sacked 8 times this season but he is well aware of the pressure coming his way in this one and I think his experience will be enough to get him through it. Vanderbilt needs to make sure they hang onto the ball in this game because they have already lost 5 fumbles in four games this season but are lucky to go up against an Auburn defense that has recovered only 3 fumbles all season. Vanderbilt is the most disciplined team in the SEC so far this season as they are averaging only 2.8 penalties per game on the year and that is good for 28.8 penalty yards per game. Vandebirlt needs to have patience in this game and they need to let things come to them. This game is going to be about setting up plays on offense for later in the game and about working all game to catch Auburn sleeping on the one or two occasions their defense usually allows per game. I have no doubt in my mind that Vandy's defense is once again going to come up with some huge plays in this game and that should be all the offense needs to put some points on the board. VANDERBILT ON FIRE BABY!
ESPN COLLEGE GAMEDAY is in Vanderbilt this week for probably the first time ever or in a very long time. That is only going to hype this game up a lot more than it has been hyped up this week and the fans are probably going to be a lot more into it with the long day and tailgaiting beginning when the broadcast begins. I don't know that we can call this a rivalry because these two teams don't face each other often enough. Vanderbilt is not known for being that good of a home underdog but you can bet your bottom dollar coach Bobby Johnson has big plans for this game because the Commodores, should they find a way to win this game, have upcoming games against Mississippi State, Georgia and Duke and if they can pulloff the upset in the Georgia game as well, this team is locking their spot up in the SEC Conference Championship game. NO DOUBT ABOUT IT. Like I said before, I have Vanderbilt ranked higher than Auburn and I have them a few spots away from the TOP 10. Auburn is a pathetic 1-5 ATS in their last six SEC Conference games and I just don't trust this team with their pathetic offense. On that note, Vanderbilt has covered 5 of their last 7 SEC Conference games, they are perfect on the season when it comes to covering spreads and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. I like another upset here and think Vanderbilt finally knocks off Auburn, somethign they have come close to doing at home on three occasions since the 1991 season. DOGGY DOG TO THE BANK!
Trend of the Game: Auburn is 1-5 ATS in their last six SEC Conference games.
Vanderbilt 20, Auburn 11
Nebraska Cornhuskers +11 (10 Units)
The Missouri Tigers have ben rolling along just nice this early season and a lot of experts have actually called for this team not only to win the Big 12 Championship without problems but to move onto the National Championship Game and possibly take that home as well. OVERRATED is all I have to say about this team and I know my comments are not going to be popular with some of you Tigers fans and faithful but lets get real please. I know this team looks good day in and day out and they blow away most of the teams they face on a weekly basis but it cannot be ignored that MISSOURI HAS LOST THEIR LAST FIVE GAMES IN NEBRASKA and the games have never even been really close. This is like making Wisconsin a favorite against Michigan when they have not won there in almost 20 years. That made no sense and neither does this opening line. You cannot disagree with me when I say that Missouri is completely untested. Beating Illinois on your own turf to open the season does not by any means validate you as a good team, specially not when you had Buffalo, SE Missouri and Nevada as your next three opponents. I love how some of these teams have vanilla based out of conference schedules because when it comes time for adversity, they are not battle tested and they have not been in wars like Nebraska has been in against teams like Virginia Tech. Missouri is a tad bit overrated if you ask me and that is definitely going to show in today's game. The Tigers come into this game averaging a very whopping 53.8 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 595.5 total yards of offense per game and 8.3 yards per play which has to lead the Country in total offense per game. Having said that, their schedule has been weak and I don't buy the hype of those numbers. Nebraska's defense is not the best the Big 12 has to offer but they have allowed only 19.5 points per game this season and have allowed only 354.8 total yards of offense per game this season on 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, Missouri loves to run the ball and they have done it very well averaging 191.3 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per carry this season. I know it seems like a lot but again they have faced some garbage defenses this season. Nebraska has allowed only 116.3 rushing yards per game this season on 3.2 yards per carry and their defensive line is very tough to beat. I think Missouri's offense revolves a lot around how well they can run the ball so once they are completely shut down in this game, I don't know that the Tigers can throw the ball as well. In the air, QB and Heisman Trophy candidate Chase Daniel has completed 77.1% of his passes this season for 1412 passing yards, 10.8 yards per pass attempt, 12 touchdown passes and 1 interception. If that doesn't make you say WOW I really don't know what would. WTF is he doing on a team like this anyways? Nebraska's defense has played well this season and they should be fire up at home as they have allowed opponents to complete only 56.6% of their passes this season for 7.0 yards per pass attempt but they do have some guys who can make big plays and I fully expect them to contain this Missouri offense on certain drives. The problem I have with Nebraska, and I am waitnig for them to explode anytime now, is that they have a bunch of big playmakers on defense and I don't find it acceptable or believable that they have been able to intercept only 3 passes in four games this season, that they have recovered only 1 fumble in four games this season and that they have only 5 sacks in those four games. If they are going to be a team on the rise and if they are going to make a run at Missouri for the North Division crown, they really need to step things up defensively, start taking some bigger risks and coming up with the play needed to help their offense score more points and start with better field position. Missouri has actually fumbled four times in four games this season and lost all four fumbles and that was against much weaker opponents. They are obviously not as good as everyone thinks and despite having a very good QB that could very well wni the Heisman, I just don't see them winning this game by more than say a field goal or a touchdown. As a matter of fact this team is so lacking battle experience this season that I am calling for them to lose this game straight up to a very hungry Nebraska team that is not happy about their blowout loss to VT last week. MIZZOU WHO?
The Nebraska Cornhuskers and their fans (mostly the fans) are getting fed up with losing big games and they made it well known in their loss against Virginia Tech last week. This fan base was promised better things when Bo Pellini took over head coach and it was so far so good prior to the game against Beamer (the better head coach) and the Hokies last week. Nonetheless the season is not shot for this team because they did some good things before losing that game. Much like Missouri prior to this week, Nebraska was nowhere near ready for a big game like the VT game because they had only played against opponents like Western Michigan, San Jose State and New Mexico State. So they walk into that Hokies game, a battle tested Hokies team, and get beat on all sides of the ball. No shocker there. I don't know what it is about this series but the home team seems to dominate no matter where the teams are ranked and no matter what the talent level difference is for the matchup. What I don't understand is how oddsmakers came up with this ridiculous line? The last four seasons Nebraska has gone 4-1 ATS as a home underdog and even though they have a new head coach now, I think he is much better than Bill Callahan and he should keep the ATS underdog home streak going with a big win and cover in this game. Nebraska comes into this game averaging 37.5 points per game on the season and if anyone can keepup with the Tigers on the offensive side of things it has to be Nebraska. They average a very nice 421.0 total yards of offense per game this season and in those games they have managed to average 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Can you say shootout in this game or what? Missouri has allowed 20.8 points per game this season which doesn't make sense considering the weak opponents they have faced and in those games they have also allowed 378.5 total yards of offense per game and allowed 4.8 yards per play in those games. Not too bad but again their opponents sucked and I don't understand this. On the ground, Nebraska has aveaged 155.5 rushing yards per game this season and they have done that on 4.8 yards per carry in those games. Missouri is very tough against the run and they have allowed their opponents this season to run for only 99.0 rushing yards per game and 2.8 yards per carry. I know Nebraska has to keep running the ball but if this turns into a shootout and you know it will, it's time to unleash the pass attack. QB Joe Ganz has completed 64.4% of his passes this season for 997 passing yards, 9.6 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions which tells me he should have no problems keeping up with his buddy Chase Daniel. Missouri's defense has allowed opponents this season to complete 54.3% of their passes and have allowed those same opponents to average 6.4 yards per pass attempt on the year. What I really like here is the kind of protection Ganz has been able to get from his huge offensive line. They have allowed only 3 sacks in four games this season and that is the best news you could ever hear because Missouri has a total of 11 sacks in four games this season and when they pressure opponents they usually find a way to get the ball back unless they take on a good offensive line like Nebraska's, the best offensive line they have faced all season no doubt about it. The Huskers have been very good at holding onto the ball as they have lost only 3 fumbles on the season but I do have a problem with the amount of penalties they have been taking per game. They currently average 8.0 penalties per game this season which has cost them a cool 68.3 penalty yards per game and I am telling you that this put them in a hole they could not get out of against the Hokies and Beamer last week. Missouri doesn't really do anything special on defense apart from bringing hard pressure from all sides but now that Nebraska knows they can protect Ganz, he should have no problems completing some huge passing plays in this game to keep it close and avoid Missouri jumping out to a huge lead in this game. The Huskers are due for some kind of big win and I think it comes here. This game will probably decide who represents the North in the Big 12 Conference Championship Game and I don't know how they could get blown out again at home two weeks in a row. JUST NOT HAPPENING GUYS, HUSKERS SHOW UP HERE!
I AM ON AN UNDERDOG ROLL THIS WEEK. Don't ask me why, don't doubt it just do what you have to do and recognize that these are the best weeks of the season to bet no underdogs. I say that because it seems like oddsmakers are a bit confused at this point. Some teams look great one week only to come out and look horrendous the next week. I was on Virginia Tech last week when they walked into Nebraska as a touchdown underdog and I called for them to win straight up. I DON'T CARE WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK, Nebraska is not about to lose two straight games at home against big name opponents. This line is absolutely stupid for two teams who hate each other and two teams who are going to battle things out the way rivalry teams do. What I can't understand is how oddsmakers come up with this line after watching a very similar situation arise in the NFL this past weekend. Washington is probably a better overall team than Dallas but they hadn't show it yet but for some reason oddsmakers made them +11.5 underdogs in a divisional battle and that was one of the worst liens I have seen all season. THIS IS THE SAME KIND OF GAME AS THE DALLAS-WASHINGTON GAME! Too many points. Missouri has all the ATS trends going their way this game because they are good in conference play and they have covered 14 of their last 18 games overall. Having said that, Nebraska is a whopping 18-3-1 ATS in their last 22 home games versus teams with a winning road record which is all I really need to know here. Missouri is by no means battle tested, neither was Nebraska last week but now that they have fought a war, they should have no problems keeping this close or winning straight up. Peace!
Trend of the Game: Nebraska is 18-3-1 ATS in their last 22 home games versus teams with a winning road record.
Nebraska 34, Missouri 31
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
:toast:
Recap
Florida Atlantic +3
Louisiana Tech +22
Pittsburgh +13.5
Cincinnati -3
Duke +14.5
Kentucky +16.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Vanderbilt +4.5
Nebraska +11
I am all over the underdogs this week and I think this is the week to do it guys. Linesmakers are confused and some of these lines do not make any sense whatsoever. Good Luck!
I am coming off my best week of the season capping wise but have no money to show for it because of poor decision making on my largest play of the week. I did however hit a total of 5 underdogs to cover the spread and predicted all 5 to win straight up, which they all did. I am on fire in the NFL as well using a new capping method that was a calculated 6-0 ATS in CFB week 4 and 5-2 ATS this past week. Having said that, Ohio State should have been a winner and Hawaii as well. Bad luck in both, moose jobs.
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 1000 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 4-6 ATS (+3.20 Units)
Week 2: 3-3 ATS (-12.50 Units)
Week 3: 2-3-1 ATS (-29.00 Units)
Week 4: 3-4 ATS (+7.00 Units)
Week 5: 5-2 ATS (-16.00 Units)
Week 6: Pending
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. When things are not going well I don't just sit there and watch, I take action and make myself better. Good Luck to all this week!
------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday, September 30
Florida Atlantic Owls +3 (5 Units)
The Florida Atlantic Owls could be one of college football's hidden gems if you ask me because they have completely flown under the radar after a poor start to their season and they are a much better team than anyone is giving these guys credit for. Are you kidding me they are the underdog in this game? I am reading a lot of pre-season material here and the Owls were heavily favored to win the Sun Belt Conference, something thats seems to have slipped the minds of the cappers I am seeing on Middle Tennessee State large. You guys cannot forget that this is the same Florida Atlantic team that is coached by legend Howard Schnellenberger who brought the team to their first ever Bowl Game last season. Not only did the Owls play in the New Orleans Bowl but the Owls won that game 44-27 as -3 point favorite and at the conclusion of the game, coach Schnellenberger announced that he was walking into Texas in 2008 and beating the Longhorns on the road. Well so much for that as Florida Atlantic lost 52-10 but believe me this team is not that bad. They do return 10 starters on offense and 8 starters on defense and this is a MUST WIN GAME for the Owls. They are 1-3 SU to start the season having lost all three non-conference road games against Texas, Minnesota and Michigan State but like I said before, those losses by no means exemplify what this team is all about. Florida Atlantic comes into this game averaging 15.5 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done on 337.8 total yards of offense per game and 5.4 yards per play which is pretty damn good considering who this team has faced so far (a lot of Big Ten opponents don't average 5.4 yards per play against Minnesota and Michigan State). Middle Tennessee State has allowed 24.0 points per game this season and they have allowed those points on 363.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play. On the ground, I don't expect much production from an offense that loves to pass as the Owls average only 104.0 rushing yards per game this season but do also average 4.2 yards per carry in those games. Middle Tennessee State's defense has allowed 140.0 rushing yards per game this season on 4.3 yards per carry which could be a problem. RB Charles Pierre is an experienced back averaging 6.5 yards per carry this season and I expect him to have a huge game against this defense. In the air, QB Rusty Smith has been around for a long time and he is the #2 all-time passer in school history. He has completed only 46.3% of his passes this season for a whopping 878 passing yards, 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions. This is coming from a guy who had 32 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions last season so you can expect his play to increase big time now that we have reached the in-conference schedule. Middle Tennessee has allowed their opponents to complete 55.9% of their passes this season for 6.6 yards per pass attempt but the only way they are going to slow down Smith in this game is they can get some pressure on him up front. Believe it or not this offensive line is outstanding and they have not allowed a single sack all season. Not against Minnesota, not against Michigan State. Middle Tennessee State does have 5 sacks in 4 games this season but again that is not enough pressure to slow the experienced Junior down. This kid knows how to win. I am a big fan of teams that don't turn the ball over too much in the Sun Belt Conference and the Owls have fumbled the ball only two times this season and lost both of those fumbles. The bottom line is that fumbling only twice in four games is good and this game is going to be one on the turnover margin. The key for the offense in this game is going to be balance. If they continously run the ball and have Pierre pound away up the middle, things are no doubt going to open up for the best player in the Sunbelt Conference WR Cortez Gent to run his own show. This guy is as good a playmaker as there is and he is a prominent punt returner as well as the best wide receiver in the conference. Smith has been on the same page as Gent the last few seasons and his 1082 receving yards last season were good for second in the conference (he is at 255 already this year against tough opponents). I think this is a coming out party for this offense and I expect them to completely blow away an overrated Middle Tennessee State team.
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are not all that well known in the handicapping community mainly because they play in a conference that does not get much public attention and that does not make it's away onto TV very much. Having said that, the Blue Raiders are going to have a sellout crowd for their conference opener tonight and those 30 000+ fans are going to be going nuts for the first ever ESPN National Television broadcast from this stadium. I think most handicappers are looking at this the wrong way because they see a team in Middle Tennessee that beat Maryland at home in their second home game of the season and now that the Terps are going on an ACC Conference tear, immediately assume that that win makes the Blue Raiders one of the top teams in this Conference. WRONG ATTITUDE! We all saw what Middle Tennessee was capable of in their home opening game this season when they went down to Troy 31-17. However, this team is now back in the eyes of the public because they beat Maryland 24-14 at home the following week as +13 point home underdogs. What you have to understand there is that despite beating the Terps and losing to Troy, the Blue Raiders are only 3-3 ATS under coach Stockstill as home favorites and the home field advantage here doesn't really mean jack. I know they kept things close on the road against Kentucky but they followed that up with a 17 point loss to Arkansas State and I just don't think this team has what it takes to win against a much better opponent here. Middle Tennessee comes into the game averaging 17.2 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 346.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.8 yards per play in those games. Florida Atlantic looks bad defensively because they have allowed a whopping 35.0 points per game this season and have allowed their opponents to average 441.3 total yards of offense per game on 5.9 yards per play. Having said that, their opponents have been top notch non-conference opponents so the numbers are understandable. On the ground, Middle Tennessee has no running game whatsoever to speak of as they average only 68.5 rushing yards per game this season 2.0 yards per carry which is the best news Florida Atlantic has heard all season. I say that because the Owls have been eaten alive on the ground and have allowed 211.0 rushing yards per game this season on 4.8 yards per carry. Not happening this time. In the air, QB Joe Craddock has experience and he has completed 65.3% of his passes this season for 1079 passing yards, 7.5 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. Florida Atlantic's defense doesn't really anymore excuses now that conference play has arrive as they have allowed opponents to complete 64.5% of their passes this season for 7.6 yards per pass attempt in those games which makes them susceptible to big plays downfield. The key to shutting down Middle Tennessee is bringing pressure up the middle as they have their top three sacks guys from 2007 back in the lineup here and should bring the house on many occasions. The Blue Raiders have allowed Craddock to be sacked 7 times in four games but they have done a great job holding onto the ball and have not really had problems with turnovers to start the season. Florida Atlantic's defense doesn't have many takeaways defensively on the season but the key for them here is to continue pressing the ball and attacking the gaps because the Blue Raiders lack experience on offense and all you really have to do is bring pressure packages. I think without a decent running game to speak of, the Blue Raiders are once again going to be forced to throw the ball more than they want to and although Craddock is very capable, he is going up against the best secondary in the Sun Belt Conference and I think they are going to come up with some huge plays. CB's Tavious Polo and Cory Small combined for 12 interceptions in 2007 and they harassed Sun Belt opponents on many occasions. I really see these two having huge games because they are the best man-to-man coverage guys in the Conference and any throw lacking accuracy is going to be picked off. Middle Tennessee just doesn't have the weapons to win this game if you ask me. They have thrown 4 interceptions as a team, they have lost 3 fumbles and take 6.3 penalties per game this season. That doesn't sound like much but against a defense that is hungry to prove themselves, I think it's a recipe for disaster and we are about to see why.
One thing I have learned from my year's of betting college football is that oddsmakers are a bunch of clueless clowns when it comes to making lines for Sun Belt Conference games. I have a feeling they pick numbers out of hat when it comes to determining lines and by no means should Middle Tennessee State be the favorite in this game. ARE YOU KIDDING ME? WRONG TEAM IS FAVORED IT'S NOT EVEN FUNNY! I have watched quite a few Sun Belt Conference games in the past few years and I am warning you guys right now, be ready for a roller-coaster ride. This Conference can be a disaster at times, teams can be down by 30 and still win and most games are turnover fest parties that keep you on the edge of your handicapping toes. Don't say I didn't warn you here. Florida Atlantic is one of the best bounce back teams in the Country as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after being held to 20 points or less the game before. They are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine Sun Belt Conference games while Middle Tennessee has gone 0-4 ATS in their last four Sun Belt Conference games. This Owls team is nothing like the one that lost 35-14 here in 2006 as +11 point underdogs and like I will mention to you guys again, this is the best team in the Sun Belt Conference by far. They are flying under the radar looking bad after a tough non-conference schedule and this is the game that has people asking themselves WHY THE HELL WAS I ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE ANYWAYS? HooooooHoooooo!
Trend of the Game: Florida Atlantic is 7-2 ATS in their last nine conference games.
Florida Atlantic 34, Middle Tennessee 19
Wednesday, October 1
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +22 (5 Units)
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs know they are in for the fight of their lives tonight but the question here is are they up for the challenge or are they going to fold like a cheap tent the minute Boise State scores their first six? Head Coach Derek Dooley no doubt has a lot of experience having coached under the watchful eyes of Nick Saban in the past and I already like what he has done after having taken over a team that was 3-10 SU in 2006. I don't know all that much about this team but I do know that their QB is a Georgia Tech transfer and that they have some Alabama and Auburn transfers on this team as well. Louisiana Tech has the best punter in the conference, they have the best free safety in the conference, they have the best Punt Returner in the conferece and they have a few very good defensive tackles to go along with that. You have to keep in mind that this team opened the season with a 22-14 win over Mississippi State at home and followed that up with a pretty decent showing at Kansas even though they lost 29-0 and +21.5 point underdogs. The Bulldogs have had two off weeks to work on their offensive production and it showed in their third game of the season as they whalloped SE Louisiana to the tune of 41-26 and probably built a little bit of confidence heading into this game against one of the TOP 10 teams in the Country. I know Louisiana Tech has not won here since the 1997 season but in College Football anything can happen. The Bulldogs come into this game averaging 21.0 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done on 327.7 total yards of offense per game on 4.7 yards per play in those games. Not too bad, not too good. They are going to have to deal with Boise State's defense that has allowed only 15.3 points per game this season and that has allowed about 326.0 total yards of offense in those games on only 4.4 yards per play. Safe enough to say things won't come easy for the Bulldogs in this game. On the ground, the Bulldogs have been quite impressive rushing for 164.0 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry as they do have some big time playmakers. I know teams have tried to run quite a bit on Boise State because they figure they can control the clock that and it does sometimes work. The Broncos have allowed 148.3 rushing yards per game this season on only 3.3 yards per carry which should force the Bulldogs to go 50/50 on the pass-run balance. In the air, QB Taylor Bennett was the QB at Georgia Tech last season and he has come over here and completed only 41.4% of his passes for 491 passing yards, 5.0 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. Bennett has struggled but he is somewhat of a threat on the ground and he does have a decent arm that can get things done if he avoids making too many mistakes. Boise State's defense has allowed opponents to complete 59.3% of their passes this season for 5.9 yards per pass attempt in those games which means Bennett does have a shot. Boise State just hasn't been the same as years past on defense. The only way the Broncos can stop Louisiana Tech in this game is if they find a way to get some pressure on Bennett because he is horrendous under pressure. Having said that, even though the Broncos have 8 sacks in their three games this season, Louisiana Tech's offensive line has been great and they have allowed Bennett to be sacked only 2 times in three games this season which should give him plenty of time to find open receivers or dump off options. I think coach Dooley needs to keep things simple for Bennett in this game even if they go down by a few early scores. Boise State is very aggressive on the ball and they have forced 5 fumbles this season and managed to recover three of them. It's not a secret that if Louisiana Tech can't score points in this game, they aren't going to cover the spread. Having said that, they have a well balanced running game that can actually game some first down yardage against the Broncos and once that has been established, Bennett should have some chances to throw downfield. I don't know that it's realistic to say the Bulldogs can win this game but the way I see it I think they can probably catch Boise State snoozing after a week off and making this game come down to the fourth quarter is definitely not out of the question. I like having a highly touted QB to compliment a big underdog because although he has not played well this season, we all know he has it in him to get things done. Do you all smell an upset?
The Boise State Broncos are pretty damn well known for their ability to demolish just about anyone who steps into Boise and dares play against them on this blue turf. As a matter of fact the Broncos are a whopping 32-12 ATS in their last 44 games as home favorites and they are a perfect 28-0 SU lifetime in WAC Conference home games (this goes back to 2001 because that's when they started playing in this conference). The Broncos have won six straight in this series and they have won those games by an average of 24.0 points per game which means the spread is close enough that the Bulldogs have a shot here. I know Boise State is going to want to impress the National TV audience, there is no doubt about that, but I just don't think they have the same kind of offense as the past few seasons and it won't be as easy for this team to score touchdowns on one or two plays down the field like they used to do on almost every possession. That is a plus for those who like to back underdogs and although this Boise State team is BCS worthy, I just don't think they have the same explosiveness as before which means the home wins may not be as large and the spreads might have to start coming down a bit. Boise State kicked off their season with a 49-7 win over Idaho State in a non-lined game and then followed that up with a 20-7 home win over Bowling Green as -17.5 point favorite (there is the proof that things are changing). Sure they beat Oregon last weekend but that was no the road and that was against a depleted Ducks team with levels of motivation. Same can't be said for this game. Boise State comes into this game averaging 35.3 points per game this season and they have managed to score those points by averaging 448.7 total yards of offense per game on a whopping 7.0 yards per play. I don't know how long Louisiana Tech can hold them in this game because the Bulldogs have allowed 23.0 points per game and in those games have also allowed 445.0 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play with only 5 returning starters on that side of the ball. Having said that, they are a BEND BUT DON'T BREAK type of defense and holding Boise State to field goals should not be a problem on several drives. On the ground, RB Ian Johnson continues to lead the way coming off his 3rd Team All-American season in 2007 but the Broncos running attack seems to have slowed down as they average only 142.7 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry this season. Louisiana Tech has a few all-conference defensive linemen and they have allowed only 97.0 rushing yards per game this season and allowed only 3.4 yards per carry in those games. I capped this game with the assumption that Smith won't rush for his usual 150 yards per game which should force the passing game a bit too much. In the air, QB Kellen Moore has taken the brunt of the snaps for this offense and he has completed 71.8% of his passes for 840 passing yards, 10.8 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 1 interception on the season. Louisiana Tech's secondary has been picked apart in all three games this season as their opponents have managed to complete 63.0% of their passes this season for 7.6 yards per pass attempt. The Broncos offensive line has allowed 4 sacks in three games this season and the Bulldogs defense has done the same, earning 4 sacks in their first three games. Moore is a young QB and he is going to make mistakes from time to time even though he has been sensational through the first few games of his young career. I do however think that because of the youth on the offensive side of things for Boise State, they are going to be mistake prone against a more veteran Louisiana Tech defense (well the returning starters are experienced) who know a thing or two about forcing turnovers. The Bulldogs have 3 interceptions in three games and they have managed to recover 4 fumbles from their opponents which is a clear indication that they are aggressive and play risk and reward football. That can either be good or it can be bad against the Broncos because they have the ability to strike just like that but their youth has shown this season and they have been turnover prone. Boise State has fumbled 6 times and lost 4 of those fumbles this season. For a team that is supposed to be TOP 10 material I don't know that I am impressed with the lack of ball protecting care I have seen so far. There is no doubt in my mind that Moore is going to have a huge day in the air but it's the drive ending mistakes that are going to keep this game close and this is probably Boise State's most dangerous game on the schedule because they consider it an easy win and they have a tougher schedule on the slate. The hardest part about being Boise State is that they are considered the only non-BCS conference team left that can make the BCS and pressure like that can get to young players. I think Louisiana Tech is going to allow quite a few points tonight but they will also score points of their own and give these Broncos a nice run for their money. Boise State might win this but won't be by as much as people think.
I have made so much money betting on the Boise State Broncos at home no weeknights in the past that it pains me to go the other way here. I know how explosive this team can be, I know how much they like playing on National Television in front of large audiences who are more intrigued with the smurf turf than they are with the actual football game. It's no secret that Boise State has made a habit of completely demolishing opponents who visit here as they are a whopping 32-12 ATS as a home favorite since the 2000 season and that's just incredible numbers really. Having said that, you need to know when to fade this team and you have to pick your spots very well because only 12 of their last 44 opponents here have covered the spread. But hold on a second. Something is going on in Vegas. The line is way too low for my liking, I was expecting it to be more around 28 and the public bait has been chewed up and tossed right back out. I see a healthy 70% of cappers already on the Broncos and I don't like that, not the way things have gone lately. You can find all the trends in the world that tell you to fade Louisiana Tech tonight like the one that says they are 9-22 ATS in their last 31 road games or the one that says they are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games versus teams with a winning record. On that note, Boise State has dominated the last few meetings in Boise and as good as the Broncos have been, they are beatable and this is a very dangerous game for them if you ask me. I say this game is a lot closer than people think and since I don't bet underdogs unless I think they can win straight up, I am going with the upset of the year here. Can you imagine? SHOCKER HERE! WIN OR LOSE TECH SHOWS UP TO PLAY!
Trend of the Game: Louisiana Tech is 5-3 ATS versus WAC Conference opponents under Derek Dooley.
Louisiana Tech 34, Boise State 33
Thursday, October 2
Pittsburgh Panthers +13.5 (10 Units)
The Pitt Panthers are by no means a team you would pick for the mid-week upset of the week but hey what do you know, I think they can win this game. Now the reason for that being that as much as this team has been ridiculed and as much as they have looked awful in most their games the last two or three seasons, this team has managed to pull a few rabbits out of their hats and I am expecting exactly that to happen here. We are talking about a team that went 4-1 ATS last season as away underdogs under Dave Wannstedt who is probably down to his last days as head coach of this team unless they can find a a way to turn things around in a hurry. The irony here is that the Panthers need at least 7 wins to have this called a successful season because the Wannstedt era has seen them win 5-6-5 respectively which is quite unacceptable after winning at least eight games the three seasons before that under Walt Harris. This is one of the most veteran teans Wannstedt has had and his seniors really need to lead the way. The Panthers are 0-4 ATS on the season failing to cover spreads at home against Bowling Green, Buffalo and Iowa...and failing to cover the spread on the road at Syracuse last weekend. This is the first time all season the Panthers are the underdog in a game and that alone can completely change the dynamics of a team and the way they work their daily operations. We all know the Panthers can ball with USF because they were beating them at halftime last season before throwing 3 INT's and completely blowing the game in the second half. I don't expect any of that crap to repeat itself and I think the Panthers will look like the of old for the first time in a very long. Pittsburgh comes into this game averaging 24.8 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 352.8 total yards of offense per game on 4.9 yards per play in those games. South Florida has allowed opponents to score 16.8 points per game this season and they have allowed those opponents to average 243.8 total yards of offense on 4.1 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB LeSean McCoy has yet to really impress or make himself known in College Football and now is his big chance. He has led this team to 152.8 rushing yards per game on the season and in those games the Panthers have averaged 4.1 yards per carry. Running the ball on South Florida is a tough task because of their size up front. They have allowed only 58.8 rushing yards per game this season on 2.1 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Bill Stull (who was injured really early last season after completing 14 of his first 20 passes and was done for the year) has completed 57.2% of his passes this season for 800 passing yards, 5.8 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 3 interception. South Florida has allowed opponents to complete 49.4% of their passes this season for 5.7 yards per pass attempt and Stull is going to have to be sharp in this game if he wants to get around these guys. Having said that, the only real issues Stull and this offensive line have had this season is protection as he has gone down 8 times in four games and they can't seem to block properly for him. Having said that, South Florida has only 3 sacks in their first five games this season and this is the most time Stull is going to have all year if you ask me. As long as he doesn't get too carried away playing on National TV for the first time in his career, this should be a coming out party for Stull, a pretty high recruit coming out of High School. The Bulls have 6 interceptions in their first five games this season so keeping the ball on the ground and moving the ball with short screen passes is the answer here because the Bulls seem to sit back and let plays develop defensively before pouncing. I cannot get myself to back a defense like South Florida's in this game and I say that because despite the interceptions, they have not forced a single fumble all season, let alone recover a fumble in any of their games. Pitt has actually been the most disciplined team in the Conference so far this season taking only 2.8 penalties per game for 20.8 penalty yards per game. Pitt is going to come out throwing the ball and I think with the guys Stull has to throw to (everyone forgets WR Derek Kinder), the Panthers are going to have some huge plays early in this game and I am calling for them to somehow shakeup the Big East Conference even more by winning this game and going to 4-1 SU. Panthers for me here.
The South Florida Bulls are off to a perfect start on the season which is what they wanted heading into Big East Conference play this weekend but have you been all that impressed with their wins so far or do you consider some of them too close to handle and some of them just vanilla type wins? I means it's nice to be 5-0 SU and all but the Bulls are only 1-3 ATS in those games and they have not played as well as everyone says they have so I don't see for one minute how they deserve the type of respect oddsmakers have given them in this game. Central Florida has looked just brutal this season for some reason yet South Florida managed to beat them only 31-24 the second week of the season and it took overtime to bring that home. The Bulls followed that with what could have been and what should have been a loss to Kansas on National TV which was then followed up by a 17-9 win over Florida International as -29.5 point road favorites. WOW! South Florida has always been a good team to bet on as home favorites as they came into this season 14-7 ATS the last eight seasons as home favorites but they failed to cover against Kansas and I think they fail to cover tonight. This game means a lot to South Florida because if they can win this, their road to running the table just got a lot easier with only 6 more games left and having to play against six inferior opponents from the Big East Conference. The Bulls are a very good team and they are very well coached by I don't like how they match up against this Panthers defense and this is not the game to back them by this many points. Well all know South Florida can score some points as the Bulls come into this game averaging 36.4 points per game on the season. In those games they have managed to average 464.4 total yards of offense per game on 6.1 yards per play and the Panthers are going to have their hands full in this one seeing how USF has a bye week next and then a game against Syracuse. Pittsburgh's defense has done a decent job allowing 21.8 points per game this season and allowing 306.5 total yards of offense per game on 4.8 yards per play in those games. The key for Pitt's defense is going to be to find a way to stop the ground attack of South Florida. The Bulls come into this game averaging 201.4 rushing yards per game this season on 4.5 yards per carry in those games but the Panthers defense is solid, they are a bend but don't break type of group and they have allowed only 118.3 rushing yards per game this season and 3.8 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Matt Grothe is one of the more experienced QB's in this conference and he has completed 66.0% of his passes this season for 1175 passing yards, 8.2 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions on the season. The Panthers pass defense has not been all that bad and they have allowed their opponents to complete 59.1% of their passes this season for 5.9 yards per pass attempt which means they don't really allow big home run type plays even though they tend to bend but not break. I noticed in a few South Florida games this season that teams had success putting pressure on Grothe and looking at some stats, the offensive line has allowed him to be sacked 7 times in five games which could be a huge problem for the Bulls in this game. I say that because Pittsburgh has guys like 3rd Team All-American linebacker Scott McKillop who has led this team to a whopping 11 sacks in only four games this season. You can bet your bottom dollar the Panthers are going to bring all the pressure they can in this game because that should force Grothe and company to turn the ball over and possibly stall on drives. I talked about this a lot last week and it seems that some teams just don't get it. You cannot take too many penalties in Conference games like this one because they come back to haunt you in a hurry. South Florida has already taken 7.6 penalties per game this season which has cost them a cool 57.0 total yards per game. The Panthers are aggressive when they tackle as they have forced four fumbles in four games and have managed to intercept two passes. However I think that changes tonight because when McKillop and DE Greg Romeus get their hands on or close to Grothe, he will no doubt make the ill advised throws he has made many times in his career. I know I sound like a broken record but penalties are going to be huge in this game and I don't think coach Leavitt has the discipline tactics needed to win games big or let alone win games period in Big East Conference play. Very dangerous spot for the Bulls here.
No matter what you say to me about this game, the Panthers should not be underdogs by this many points. Not only is this an in-conference game with first place on the line but this is a battle that has gone on for a few years now and both these teams have provided us with a few thrillers over the years. The two times Pitt came to South Florida, they won 43-14 in 2004 and lost by 10 points here in 2006 as -4.5 point favorites. This is the first time all season that Pittsburgh is the underdog which again is another reason I am backing them here. Too many teams in college football look very good as underdogs but when slapped with the favorite tag, they pretty just fold and pack things up. The South Florida Bulls are ranked #16 in the Country right now and the last time Pitt was on the road playing against a ranked team, it was their 13-9 win over West Virginia last season as +29 point underdogs. This is actually only the second time in the Wannstedt era that they are on the road against a ranked opponent. Let's make it 2-0 ATS please. For whatever reason Wannstedt has these guys playing in October as the Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played in October but they have not been good in conference action or in games played on a Thursday. South Florida has struggled big time on the ATS front this season and as good as they have been at home the last few seasons, they are currently 0-6 ATS in their last six games versus opponents with a winning overall record. Can you say overrated? I personally have this team ranked #29 in the Country, right out of the TOP 25 for their poor performances. UPSET ALERT AS ALWAYS ON A THURSDAY!
Trend of the Game: South Florida is 0-6 ATS in their last six games versus teams with a winning overall record.
Pittsburgh 24, South Florida 21
Friday, October 3
Cincinnati Bearcats -3 (5 Units)
The Cincinnati Bearcats would probably rather be playing against a Big East Conference opponent right now like most of their conference foes instead of having to play a road game against a Marshall team is going to be jacked up for some football on National TV. Having said that, this is a chance for this team to head into Big Eas Conference play next week with a very decent 4-1 SU record and I don't see any reason for them not to be excited about playing on National TV whether it be at home or on the road. I don't quite understand the line for this game and there must be something I am missing about Marshall. Cincinnati opened the season with a blowout win over Eastern Kentucky in which they followed that up with a 52-26 loss to Oklahoma as +22.5 point underdogs. Believe me when I say that scoring 26 points against Oklahoma is pretty damn good seeing how they are the #1 team in the Country right now. The Bearcats then took a week off, regrouped and came back pretty damn impressive in their 45-20 home win over Miami Ohio which they followed up with a sloppy 17-15 win at Akron this past weekend (making this one heck of a short week for them). Brian Kelly is a very good head coach if you ask me and he lives for games that are played on TV where he can showcase what he is made of. QB Dustin Grutza, the catalyst in a 40-14 Cincinnati win at home over Marshall, is out for the season so there are a lot of questions right now at the QB level. Having said that his replacement has been found and the Bearcats should roll in this one. Cincinnati comes into this game averaging 32.0 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging a whopping 425.5 total yards of offense per game and 6.2 yards per play in those games. Marshall's defense has been atrocious despite returning 9 starters to this lineup and they have allowed 26.2 points per game this season and allowed a whopping 440.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.7 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Bearcats should have some success running the ball in this game as they average 138.0 rushing yards per game this season and average a healthy 4.1 yards per carry with a core of young and inexperienced running backs. Marshall has not been able to stop the run all season as they have allowed 158.4 rushing yards per game this season on 4.4 yards per carry. Now I already mentioned that star QB Dan Grutza is out for the season pretty much and the concern was when he went down that this team did not have an experienced backup. Well it looks like they found their man as QB Tony Pike (who has been burried on the depth chart for 3 years now) has completed 67.1% of his passes this season for 634 passing yards, 8.3 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdowns and 1 interceptions which is quite incredible for a guy who threw 3 interceptions in only 20 pass attempts last season. What I like about Pike is that he is mobile and moves well in the pocket. Marshall's defense has allowed opponents this season to complete 59.7% of their passes for 7.0 yards per pass attempt and they are extremely prone to the deep ball, something Cincinnati needs to go after from the getgo in this game. The offensive line for the Bearcats has been good even though they have allowed 6 sacks in four games but I don't think they should have too many problems protecting Pike tonight as Marshall does not have a pass rush worth discussing and they have only 5 sacks in four games this season. I have tried to explain this to other cappers way too many times over the years. You cannot back a team that does not force turnovers becasue unless they completely dominate this game and can find a way to control the clock, the fact that they have only 3 interceptions and have recovered noly 3 fumbles is just not going to work against a team like Cincinnati that can score points in bunches. The Bearcats have had a problem with fumbles as they have lost 5 fumbles in only four games this season but again this Marshall defense lacks aggressiveness and they lack the knack for forcing turnovers. One concern with this Cincinnati team has to be penalties because they average about 8.5 penalties per game this season but I think coach Kelly will have these guys in check tonight. The key for the Bearcats is to control the game on the ground, keep things simple for Pike who is making his first start on National TV and pound away with some deep balls on second down and short. Marshall is not a good football team, their defense is atrocious and I just don't see them stopping Cincinnati at any point of this game.
The Marshall Thundering Herd suck. Plain and simple they suck and I don't know who in their right minds decided to make this the Friday Night Lights ESPN game of the week. I mean why in the world would anyone want to see this team play unless they have something special planned and unless they are going to keep this game close, which I just don't see them doing. The Herd are coming off a pathetic 3-9 SU season where they also went 4-6-1 ATS in those games and head coach Mark Snyder either needs to be fired or something needs to be done here. Snyder has an all-time record of 15-25 with Marshall and he has yet to record a winning season, something the program should be ashamed of based on how far they have come. Yes the Thundering Herd are off to a 3-2 SU record this season and they have already matched last season's win total but their wins have come against Illinois State, Memphis and an impressive win at Southern Mississippi. However when they have faced bigger conference schools like Wisconsin and West Virginia, the Thundering Herd have lost by an average of 31 points per game and I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing happen tonight. Having said that, Marshall is 6-1-1 ATS the last eight seasons as a home underdog and that alone has prompted me to keep a small unit play on this game because I think something is going on. Marshall comes into this game averaging 20.6 points per game on the season and they have managed to get that done on 338.8 total yards of offense per game and 5.3 yards per play which is not too bad. Cincinnati's defense is not as good as last season's defense and they have allowed 23.5 points per game this season and in those games they have allowed 361.5 total yards of offense on 5.3 yards per play. So don't be surprised if Marshall comes out early and scores some points to take the lead. There is no need to panic. On the ground, the Thundering Herd are averaging 144.6 rushing yards per game this season and they have done that on 4.5 yards per carry. Problem there is that Cincinnati's front seven on defense are massive and they have allowed only 103.8 rushing yards per game on 3.1 yards per carry even after facing Oklahoma. Without a running game to fall back on, Marshall will have to move their attack to the air where QB Mark Cann has not proven he can be consistent as he has completed only 50.7% of his passes this season for 943 passing yards, 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions on the season. Cincinnati's pass defense has allowed opponents to complete 68.6% of their passes this season for 7.4 yards per pass attempt which has me a bit concerned here. I know they have played some pretty good passing teams but they need to improve in the secondary and they need to improve fast. The Bearcats do not generate much pressure up front and both Wisconsin and West Virginia had problems pressuring Cann in their respective games against Marshall. I do like the chances this secondary takes as they have 5 interceptions in four games this season and they have always been a high risk high reward coverage type of team. However, with Marshall lacking a running game that can be effective in this game, the Bearcats have no excuse as to why they wouldn't be able to drop more guys into coverage to help. We all know Marshall is going to try and get all fancy on us in this game as they are on National TV, they are in front of their fans and they are in need of a big win for this program to complete it's revival but I'm not too sure they have what it takes to beat a Brian Kelly team that definitely doesn't want to lose this game. I don't doubt Cann is probably going to have one of his best games all season but he is going up against the best secondary (talent wise and on paper) in the Big East Conference and there is no doubt in my mind that he is going to get picked off on more than one occasions. Those turnovers and possible touchdowns by the Bearcats defense are going to be the difference in this game and I think this defense is due for a big game with some big plays. Marshall is going down hard, screw the home dog.
Guys before you bet this game, and this is why I am betting only $500 on the game, please be advised that MARSHALL IS 4-1-1 ATS AS A HOME UNDERDOG UNDER MARK SNYDER and 6-1-1 ATS AS A HOME UNDERDOG THE LAST EIGHT SEASONS. Approach with caution because something is up with this game and Vegas knows what they are doing setting what looks to be an easy line for the game. Make no mistake about it. Cincinnati is the better team and you almost never see Marshall as a home underdog but this should be an interesting game. Coming off such a pathetic performance against Akron, Cincinnati needs to win this game and they need to make a statement in the wide open Big East Conference. Cincinnati is one of the best bounce back teams when it comes to rebounding from bad or mediocre offensive performances. The Bearcats are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games where they scored 20 points or less in their game before and they have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 games versus opponents from Conference USA. The Bearcats have actually been an ATS machine the last little while as they have covered 16 of their last 25 games (2 of them were a push) and they usually play well against good home teams like Marshall. The Thundering Herd on the other hand have not been good against other conference going 1-7 ATS in their last eight games versus non-conference opponents and 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus Big East opponents. I really think Cincinnati runs these guys into a wall and dominate this game.
Trend of the Game: Marshall is 1-7 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.
Cincinnati 38, Marshall 19
Saturday, October 4
Duke Blue Devils +14.5 (10 Units)
The Duke Blue Devils have me on their side for the very first time ever in my college football capping career and believe me when I say I think it was worth the wait. I have been following this team since the beginning of the season when several experts pegged them to finish anywhere but the ACC basement and that caught my eye because they have been stuck in that basement for the past who knows how many years. Well the Blue Devils have not disappointed, my rankings have these guys RANKED AS THE 6TH BEST TEAM IN ACC CONFERENCE and as dumb as that sounds, i'm dead serious. We are talking about a team that has won a combined 3 games the last four seasons coming into this year that has now started the season 3-1 SU. Can you believe these guys actually have more wins now then they have had the last four seasons? That just goes to show how much of a good job head coach David Cutliffe has done with these kids. He has SEC Conference experience from his days with Ole Miss and I really have confidence in the potential coach of the year in college football. Sutcliffe is a lifetime winner with a 44-29 W/L record as a college head coach and he finally has the kind of team that Duke has been wanting for the last who knows how many seasons. The Blue Devils have wins over James Madison, Navy and Virginia and if you ask me they should have beat a very good Northwestern team. Duke comes into this game averaging 30.8 points per game this season which is impossible to believe considering they have not averaged more than 20 points per game in about 10 seasons. In those games the Blue Devils are averaging 372.5 total yards per game and they are also averaging 4.8 yards per play. Georgia Tech's defense has always been solid this season as always and they have allowed only 14.3 points per game on the season. They have also allowed only 293.5 total yards of offense per game and allowing only 4.1 yards per play. This won't be easy for Duke but they can do it. On the ground, the Blue Devils don't have much of a running game as they average 139.8 rushing yards per game and average 3.4 yards per carry. However, Georgia Tech is as tough as it gets up the middle and traditionally they have had very good run defense. This year however they have allowed 137.3 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry which gives Duke a chance to run some yardage on the ground. In the air, QB Thaddeus Lewis has been the backbone of this team for quite some time now and he has completed 61.3% of his passes this season for 874 passing yards, 6.4 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions on the season. Georgia Tech's defense is not as good as people think and they have allowed opponents this season to complete 58.8% of their passes for 4.6 yards per pass attempt. The QB protection has been outstanding by this Duke offensive line as Lewis has been sacked only four times in four games this season and he has kept the mistakes to a minimum with only 2 interceptions. Georgia Tech loves bringing pressure and Lewis better be ready for this because they have 11 sacks in four games played this season and I don't doubt they are going to blitz on consecutive downs trying to flustre the Junior Quarterback who has led this team to early season glory. The Yellow Jackets also have 7 interceptions defensively so it would be wise if Duke could run some clock and control the ground game against a run defense that is not as good as seasons past. The Blue Devils have fumbled the ball only 1 time in four games this season and ball security is going to be crucial for this team if they are going to have a shot to win the game. This is a very well disciplined team that has averaged only 3.5 penalties per game this season and that has cost them only 31.5 penalty yards per game. The key to keep up in this game is going to be establishing RB Clifford Harris on the ground and creating some gaps to allow Lewis to unload when he needs to. Lewis knows he won't have much time in this game but he is pretty mobile and he has quick feet which really makes a difference here. I expect a lot of play action, a lot of screen passes and some very good play calling by Sutcliffe and his crew of coaches. Sutcliffe was screwed over by Ole Miss, he is back with a vengeance and I think he leads his team to the biggest win in team program history.
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackers were expected to finish near the bottom of the ACC Coastal division when the season started (same can be said about the Duke Blue Devils) but much like their counterparts, they have really come a long way, they are playing well for their new head coach and there is a buzz right now in Atlanta that we have not seen in a very long time. The Jackets have a brand new head coach in Paul Johnson and so far so good as he has led them to a 3-1 SU record to start the season and seeing how Duke has the exact same record, these two teams are battling for position in the standings. Wouldn't it be something if either one of these teams made the ACC Conference Title game after being picked to finish near the bottom of the standings in the pre-season polls? Georgia Tech has only 9 returning starters this season so I expect things to get a little rougher as the season moves along and it's games like this that are going to make or break this team and their new head coach. GT is coming off a 38-7 win over Mississippi State two weeks ago and prior to that they beat both Jacksonville State and Boston College but then lost to Virginia Tech at home in a crazy ACC Conference showdown between two old foes. What I do know about this team is that they are 3-0 ATS on the season right now and they have been the most profitable teams to bet on in the ACC Conference. Georgia Tech comes into this game averaging 28.8 points per game this season (I find it hilarious that Duke averages more than them) and in those games they have also managed to average 401.5 total yards of offense and 6.8 yards per play which is impressive. Duke's defense has definitely improved over the years and this season more than ever as they return 10 starters on that side of the ball and have allowed only 16.3 points per game this season. In those games this team has allowed only 307.0 total yards of offense per game and they have allowed only 5.1 yards per play as well. On the ground, Georgia Tech is going to finish #1 in the Country in rushing yards per game as they average 306.8 rushing yards per game on 6.5 yards per carry and that could somewhat be a problem for Duke who have allowed 145.5 rushing yards per game this season for 4.1 yards per carry. Now it's not a secret that the Jackets are going to pound away on the ground but what Duke needs to do is what they have done all season and that's ensure that they don't get beat on the deep ball in the air. QB Josh Nesbitt has completed only 48.5% of his passes this season for only 269 passing yards, 8.2 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 1 interception on the season. That's nothing flashy but he does have 290 rushing yards to go along with that and the key to this game is containing him on the ground and forcing him to throw the ball, something he sucks at big time. The Blue Devils have allowed opponents to complete only 47.9% of their passes this season for 6.7 yards per pass attempt and now that they know they have to stop the run, I don't see why they can't drop a few more guys into contain knowing the Jackets have problems throwing the ball anyways. If anything make these guys beat you through the air and don't waste your time defending long passes because they don't have much. The Blue Devils have a perfect team for some contain play because the LB's are stay at home and they don't blitz much to start with. The Duke secondary has come up with some huge plays this season as they have 6 interceptions in four games and that comes from forcing other teams to throw when they do not want to have to throw. The big issue I have with Georgia Tech and this is the difference for me in this game, is the fact that they have fumbled a whopping 8 times already this season and they have lost 7 of those fumbles. Duke, although they do not force many fumbles, have been very opportunistic and pounced on other teams mistakes as they have recovered 4 fumbles in three games this season. You have to remember that this Duke defense faced another run oriented offense in Navy and they had no problem beating those guys. Georgia Tech is a good team but once you figure out how to shut down the run they don't have much else and I think Duke can continue to play well here. They beat Navy 41-31 so that goes to show that as much as their defense is going to allow points in games, the offense is right there ready to pick things up for them. Georgia Tech better watch out.
DUKE IS GETTING NO RESPECT AND VEGAS IS ABOUT TO MAKE MONEY OFF PUBLIC SQUARES! Both teams have new head coaches, both teams are going through changes, yet both teams find themselves near the top of the ACC Conference standings. I know it seems like a complete mismatch on paper but how about giving Duke some credit for almost knocking off Northwestern and beating the same Navy team that just knocked off Wake Forest last weekend? I mean they were -7 against Virginia on the weekend but now all of a sudden they are a two touchdown underdog against Georgia Tech. Weird. To tell you guys a bit more about coach Sutcliffe, he is coaching with a big time chip on his shoulder having been fire at Ole Miss after his first losing season. The worst part is that the firing came after Sutcliffe became the first Ole Miss coach to have a winning season in his first five seasons with the program. One thing is for sure, this guy can coach. I know Georgia Tech has pretty dominated this rivalry (basketball mainly) the last little while but things are about to change drastically. Duke is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games. Georgia Tech, even though the team is different now, is 0-7 ATS in their last seven games that follow a bye week and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games that follow a win of 20+ points the game before. This is not a team I would ever bet on at home and don't say I didn't tell you when Duke wins this game. BLUE DEVILS WITH THE SHOCKER!
Trend of the Game: Duke is 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
Duke 27, Georgia Tech 24
Kentucky Wildcats +16.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Kentucky Wildcats are hungry, they are bored and I have a very strong feeling they are cooking up a huge upset in coming weeks. Hold on...how about this week? I was on Alabama large last week when they beat Georgia and I am getting very similar feelings about Kentucky the way I was getting Crimson Tide waves last week. Rich Brooks and his team are not off to the best of starts this season, oh wait they are 4-0 SU, but that does not mean they don't have it in them to make it to a Bowl Game. I don't know about you guys but I still remember this team lighting up the Louisville defense for 27 points in their season opening game this season and the last time I checked they pounded away on a hapless Western Kentucky team at home last weekend. That makes Brooks and his guys 2-1 ATS on the season and although I don't think they have played all that well, they have done enough to win and prepare for a very tough in-conference schedule they have to face in coming weeks. They are one of the only SEC teams that has not played a conference game to date and that has them flying under the radar a little bit. This team has only 12 returning starters and that could be a concern but Brooks has dealt with this in the past and there is no doubt they come into Alabama trying to play the spoiler role they have endeared the last few seasons. Kentucky comes into this game averaging 31.5 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 352.3 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play in those games. Alabama's defense is tremendous as we saw on Saturday but they allowed quite a few points and have now allowed 13.4 points per game this season. In those games they have allowed only 259.4 total yards of offense and have allowed 4.1 yards per play. I know things are not going to be easy for Kentucky but it all starts on the ground where they have averaged 169.8 rushing yards per game this season and have managed to average a very decent 4.5 yards per carry. This is an outstanding group of RB's and I think that even tough Alabama allows only 54.0 rushing yards per game this season on 2.3 yards per carry, the Wildcats can throw some different looks and different formations out there to confuse the Tide. In the air, QB Mike Hartline has not been all that good but he has not been bad either as he has completed 58.5% of his passes this season for 633 passing yards, 5.1 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes and 1 interception on the season. I don't know how much the Wildcats want to throw the ball here becaue Alabama has allowed opponents to complete only 55.8% of their passes this season for only 5.2 yards per pass attempt but they can be beat with the right play calling and this coaching staff knows how to work with young guys. The offensive line has been great this season as Hartline has been sacked only 2 times in four games and that's good news because Bama loves bringing pressure and they have a few big guys up front who can really disrupt a backfield and create some problems for opposing offenses. What you really have to like about Kentucky here is that they play a simple and sound kind of football that has seen them lose only two fumbles all season (in four games anyways) and they have thrown only 2 interception all year and have taken only 5.5 penalties per game this season. Alabama's secondary has been quite solid this season recording 9 interceptions in only five games but again the offense is run on a smooth note and I think Hartline is going to be efficient much like Matthew Stafford could not be last week. WR Dicky Lyons Jr. is one of the best short yardage receivers in college football and you do not need to hit home runs against this Bama defense. As long as you move the chains, hit Lyons with some quick slants across the middle and run the ball when Bama doesn't expect it, you can definitely beat this Tide team. Their defense is a bit overrated right now because of what they did on Saturday and although you have to have respect for them, I think you come at them with everything you have, keep it simple and make them pay for a laid back approach to the game. kentucky wins if you ask me.
The Alabama Crimson Tide are on top of the world right now. They are the #2 team in the Country, they are coming off the biggest win in recent program history and once again Nick Saban is looking like a college football head coaching genius the way he has turned things around for these guys. This is only his second season with the team but the guys he has brought on board are already making a huge impact on a weekly basis and Alabama is not only 5-0 SU on the season but they are 4-1 ATS in those games with their only ATS loss coming against a Tulane team they took lightly in Week 2 of the season as -29 point favorites, winning only 20-6 in that home game. So what you have to keep in mind is Alabama was coming off that huge primetime win over Clemson the week before and once again they were dropped into a big time letdown situation spot where they barely made it out of there alive against a team from the Conference USA. I don't consider playing against Arkansas a real challenge and apart from the Georgia and Clemson games on the road as underdogs, I don't know that I would trust the Crimson Tide to win big like they did in those games. College Football is all about spot betting and this is a very bad spot to be on Alabama. With the bye week coming up after this game, I just don't see these guys having that much interest in a game where they are favored by more than two touchdowns. Alabama comes into this game averaging a whopping 37.0 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 376.8 total yards of offense per game and 5.9 yards per play on the season. That's pretty good but then again so is Kentucky's defense. They are by no means flashy nor can you name me more than one guy on this defense. However they have allowed only 5.5 points per game this season and they haev allowed only 227.5 total yards of offense in those games on 3.9 yards per play which is pretty damn good. On the ground, Alabama has been tearing through opponents and are averaging 215.2 rushing yards per game this season on 5.2 yards per carry in those games. However, Kentucky is probably going to have something to say about all this as they have allowed 72.5 rushing yards per game this season and have allowed 2.5 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB John Parker Wilson has been outstanding and has turned into a real decent QB that will one day play in the NFL if you ask me and he has completed 62.7% of his passes this season for 747 passing yards, 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdown passes and 1 interception in his final year at the school. He is going up against a Kentucky defense that has allowed opponents to complete only 47.5% of their passes this season for only 5.3 yards per pass attempt in those games. What I have not been too impressed with is the breakdowns in coverage on the pass rush as Alabama has allowed Parker Wilson to be sacked 5 times in 5 games this season and that could be a problem if Kentucky decides to bring the house as they have 5 sacks in 4 games this season. I know Wilson does not throw INT's much this season but he is bound to start as he threw 12 interceptions and 18 touchdowns in 2007 and the bad habits are probably just around the corner against a defense that has 5 interceptions in four games this season. Kentucky has managed to recover a fumble in every single one of their games this season and this defense likes to roam around and create turnovers. Alabama is the most disciplined team in the SEC but I have a feeling that when things don't go too well in this game they will probably get a litte frustrated and they will probably start taking unecessary penalties. Anyone who expects another peformance by this offense like the one against Georgia is out of their minds. I know the team returns home but there is nothing you can do about a letdown spot and the Tide just don't haev the same mojo as they had last week. That's not to say they can't win the game but I just don't think they can win by this many points. If Tulane was able to stay within 14 points of the Crimson Tide a few weeks ago, there is no reason in the world this Kentucky team can't do the same and quite possibly pull off the straight up upset. Alabama is good but I don't back them in spots like this, not at home, not as a favorite. ROLL WILDCATS ROLL!
Have you guys ever heard of a letdown game? Because if there ever was a letdown spot to be in, it would be this one. Do you all remember what happened to Alabama after they beat Clemson earlier this season? They came out the next week and barely got by Tulane as a -29 point favorite at home. Not many people remember but Kentucky has been known to spoil a party or two in their time and something tells me they have it in them this time around as well. The Wildcats are not going anywhere in the SEC this season but they can play spoiler and I guarantee right now that before the end of this season, these guys are going to upset a ranked opponent at home or on the road. Make that a TOP 10 opponent is going to go down to the Wildcats. Moving on. I actually think Alabama is the top team in the Country right now because of their big win last week but you are only as good as your next loss and the SEC has been known for BCS Title Game hopes busting upsets over the years. It happens every single season and the Wildcats have been preparing for this game for weeks now. Kentucky is 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games this season and what you cappers taking Alabama really need to know is that the Crimson Tide are only 7-19-2 ATS in their last 28 home games which means that they have covered the spread in only 7 of their last 28 home games which is pathetic. THIS IS A GREAT SPOT TO ONCE AGAIN TAKE AN UNDERDOG PLAYING A LETDOWN TEAM! Kentucky win this bitch or comes close anyways.
Trend of the Game: Alabama is 7-19-2 ATS in their last 28 home games.
Kentucky 19, Alabama 16
Vanderbilt Commodores +4.5 (10 Units)
The Auburn Tigers have shown me enough this season to prove that when they win games it won't be by more than one or two points. So even though they are going to make it to a post-New Years Day Bowl Game, they are not going to do it pretty and they are not going to blow away opponents. Well not conference opponents anyways. If you don't know what I am talking about by now you should take a look at this 4-1 SU Auburn team and notice that all three of their SEC Conference games have been decided by five points or less and now that they are on the road, I just don't see how in the world this game would be any different. Auburn is actually ranked 28th in the Country in my personal rankings and that is a few spots below what I have Vanderbilt ranked at. Auburn has four wins but they could easily have four losses as their 3-2 win over Mississippi State could have gone either way and their 14-12 win over Tennessee could have also gone either way (both ATS losses by the way). History is on the side of Auburn in this game because they have won 13 straight games versus Vanderbilt but this is not an easy place to win and Auburn is the one team I just cannot back when they are favored on the road. They are already 0-1 ATS as road favorites this season almost losing to a horrendous Mississippi State team on a crazy SEC night. Apart from their blowout win the last time they were in this place, Auburn has always struggled in this place winning by only 3 points in 2001, by only 4 points in 1993 and by only 2 points in 1991. Auburn comes into this game averaging only 19.8 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done on 329.4 total yards of offense per game and 4.7 yards per play which is not good enough in my books to make a run at this conference title. Vanderbilt's defense has been quite a surprise this season as they have allowed only 17.0 points per game on the season and have allowed only 364.3 total yards of offense per game this season allowing 5.3 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Auburn loves the run and that is no secret as they average 156.2 rushing yards per game this season and have also averaged 3.8 yards per carry. Vanderbilt's run defense has really improved over the years and they have allowed only 124.3 rushing yards per game this season and have allowed 3.9 yards per carry in those games. That should force Auburn to throw, somethign they absolutely wish they never had to do. QB Chris Todd has completed 57.7% of his passes this season for 815 passing yards, 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions which is not good and not about to win any conference titles if you ask me. Vandy's pass defense has allowed opponents to complete only 54.1% of their passes this season for 6.6 yards per pass attempt so you can beat them with the deep ball but you can't beat them on short routes. Too bad Todd doesn't have a deep ball threat in his arm. I know the offensive line has had problems for Auburn because they have allowed 6 sacks in five games this season but now they have to deal with a Commodores defense that has a whopping 13 sacks in four games this season making them the best pass rushing team in the SEC Conference so far this season. This is exciting stuff if you're with me on Vanderbilt knowing how much pressure they can generate in this game. This defense has also caught 10 interceptions on the season and they have forced a whopping 8 fumbles in only four games. You want to talk about a tough defense that punishes opponents, this is the one guys. Auburn has been badly plagued with turnover problems as they have fumbled the ball a crazy 10 times in five games this season and they have lost half those fumbles along the way. When you have a defense capable of forcing this many turnovers going up against a team that cannot hang onto the ball, you know some big plays are on the way and Vanderbilt's defense could have one hell of a game against this offense that will probably sleep like they have all season. I don't know how someone can back a team that averages 7.2 penalties per game like Auburn does when they are going into a ranked opponents house as road favorites in a spot that screams SEC road loss. I will be betting no Auburn again this season but not here, not now and not in a game I see them losing.
The Vanderbilt Commodores are making people some mad cash this season and if you think for one minute I am goign to sit back and watch all of that happening without getting my own piece of the pie, you are out of your damn mind. How can you not salivate at the mouth for this matchup knowing that Vanderbilt, one of the big time surprise teams in NCAA football this season, has had an entire week off to prepare for this game, at home, in front of their home crowd with a perfect record on the season. I mean it does not get any better than that for a team that was supposed to have a losing record this season and regardless of what anyone says, Vanderbilt is a better football team right now than Auburn, hands down, no doubt. The Commodores opened their season with a blowout win over Miami Ohio as underdogs and they followed that up with a 24-17 home win over South Carolina and a 38-21 home win over Rice. Two weeks ago oddsmakers doubted these guys once again making them a +7 point underdog at Ole Miss but the Commodores once again proved the oddsmakers won and brought the bacon home with an impressive 23-17 win. That makes them 2-0 SU and ATS when the underdog this season (well they are 4-0 ATS anyways) and they have won both those games as underdogs by an average margin of 14 points per game. This should be no different if you ask me. Vanderbilt comes into this game averaging a whopping 29.8 points per game this season and they have managed to get that by a very ironic 282.8 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play in those games. That's super low if you ask me but their defense does all the work and the offense finishes off drives deep in their opponents territory. This is going to be the toughest test for this offense as Auburn has allowed only 10.6 points per game this season and in those games they have allowed only 246.0 total yards of offense and 3.8 yards per play in those games. Watch out Vandy you have some work to do here boys. The Commodores, much like Auburn, love to run the ball as they average a whopping 202.0 rushing yards per game this season and have done that by also averaging 4.6 yards per carry in those games. I don't think Auburn really cares how much this team can run at home or on the road because the Tigers have allowed only 92.2 rushing yards per game this season and held opponents to only 2.9 yards per carry in those games. That's just crazy. However, I do like the prospect of Vanderbilt moving the ball throught the air as QB Chris Nickson can do just about everything and he has completed 57.7% of his passes this season for 292 passing yards, 5.6 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions (not bad for a guy who has really led this team and was a backup last season). He has also run for 270 yards and 4.8 yards per carry this season. Auburn's pass defense has allowed opponents to complete only 51.2% of their passes this season on 4.6 yards per pass attempt in those games. The play calling is not going to be easy in this game because if you run the ball you probably get stuffed and if you pass the ball on every down you risk having to punt most of the game unless you can make some big plays. So in the end what I think is going to happen here is that Nickson is going to have to move out of that pocket most of the game and confuse the Auburn defense. The Tigers have 11 sacks in five games this season and they are very dangerous on the pass rush but having a mobile QB is exactly what you need to beat this defense and Nickson should have a huge game. He has been sacked 8 times this season but he is well aware of the pressure coming his way in this one and I think his experience will be enough to get him through it. Vanderbilt needs to make sure they hang onto the ball in this game because they have already lost 5 fumbles in four games this season but are lucky to go up against an Auburn defense that has recovered only 3 fumbles all season. Vanderbilt is the most disciplined team in the SEC so far this season as they are averaging only 2.8 penalties per game on the year and that is good for 28.8 penalty yards per game. Vandebirlt needs to have patience in this game and they need to let things come to them. This game is going to be about setting up plays on offense for later in the game and about working all game to catch Auburn sleeping on the one or two occasions their defense usually allows per game. I have no doubt in my mind that Vandy's defense is once again going to come up with some huge plays in this game and that should be all the offense needs to put some points on the board. VANDERBILT ON FIRE BABY!
ESPN COLLEGE GAMEDAY is in Vanderbilt this week for probably the first time ever or in a very long time. That is only going to hype this game up a lot more than it has been hyped up this week and the fans are probably going to be a lot more into it with the long day and tailgaiting beginning when the broadcast begins. I don't know that we can call this a rivalry because these two teams don't face each other often enough. Vanderbilt is not known for being that good of a home underdog but you can bet your bottom dollar coach Bobby Johnson has big plans for this game because the Commodores, should they find a way to win this game, have upcoming games against Mississippi State, Georgia and Duke and if they can pulloff the upset in the Georgia game as well, this team is locking their spot up in the SEC Conference Championship game. NO DOUBT ABOUT IT. Like I said before, I have Vanderbilt ranked higher than Auburn and I have them a few spots away from the TOP 10. Auburn is a pathetic 1-5 ATS in their last six SEC Conference games and I just don't trust this team with their pathetic offense. On that note, Vanderbilt has covered 5 of their last 7 SEC Conference games, they are perfect on the season when it comes to covering spreads and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. I like another upset here and think Vanderbilt finally knocks off Auburn, somethign they have come close to doing at home on three occasions since the 1991 season. DOGGY DOG TO THE BANK!
Trend of the Game: Auburn is 1-5 ATS in their last six SEC Conference games.
Vanderbilt 20, Auburn 11
Nebraska Cornhuskers +11 (10 Units)
The Missouri Tigers have ben rolling along just nice this early season and a lot of experts have actually called for this team not only to win the Big 12 Championship without problems but to move onto the National Championship Game and possibly take that home as well. OVERRATED is all I have to say about this team and I know my comments are not going to be popular with some of you Tigers fans and faithful but lets get real please. I know this team looks good day in and day out and they blow away most of the teams they face on a weekly basis but it cannot be ignored that MISSOURI HAS LOST THEIR LAST FIVE GAMES IN NEBRASKA and the games have never even been really close. This is like making Wisconsin a favorite against Michigan when they have not won there in almost 20 years. That made no sense and neither does this opening line. You cannot disagree with me when I say that Missouri is completely untested. Beating Illinois on your own turf to open the season does not by any means validate you as a good team, specially not when you had Buffalo, SE Missouri and Nevada as your next three opponents. I love how some of these teams have vanilla based out of conference schedules because when it comes time for adversity, they are not battle tested and they have not been in wars like Nebraska has been in against teams like Virginia Tech. Missouri is a tad bit overrated if you ask me and that is definitely going to show in today's game. The Tigers come into this game averaging a very whopping 53.8 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 595.5 total yards of offense per game and 8.3 yards per play which has to lead the Country in total offense per game. Having said that, their schedule has been weak and I don't buy the hype of those numbers. Nebraska's defense is not the best the Big 12 has to offer but they have allowed only 19.5 points per game this season and have allowed only 354.8 total yards of offense per game this season on 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, Missouri loves to run the ball and they have done it very well averaging 191.3 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per carry this season. I know it seems like a lot but again they have faced some garbage defenses this season. Nebraska has allowed only 116.3 rushing yards per game this season on 3.2 yards per carry and their defensive line is very tough to beat. I think Missouri's offense revolves a lot around how well they can run the ball so once they are completely shut down in this game, I don't know that the Tigers can throw the ball as well. In the air, QB and Heisman Trophy candidate Chase Daniel has completed 77.1% of his passes this season for 1412 passing yards, 10.8 yards per pass attempt, 12 touchdown passes and 1 interception. If that doesn't make you say WOW I really don't know what would. WTF is he doing on a team like this anyways? Nebraska's defense has played well this season and they should be fire up at home as they have allowed opponents to complete only 56.6% of their passes this season for 7.0 yards per pass attempt but they do have some guys who can make big plays and I fully expect them to contain this Missouri offense on certain drives. The problem I have with Nebraska, and I am waitnig for them to explode anytime now, is that they have a bunch of big playmakers on defense and I don't find it acceptable or believable that they have been able to intercept only 3 passes in four games this season, that they have recovered only 1 fumble in four games this season and that they have only 5 sacks in those four games. If they are going to be a team on the rise and if they are going to make a run at Missouri for the North Division crown, they really need to step things up defensively, start taking some bigger risks and coming up with the play needed to help their offense score more points and start with better field position. Missouri has actually fumbled four times in four games this season and lost all four fumbles and that was against much weaker opponents. They are obviously not as good as everyone thinks and despite having a very good QB that could very well wni the Heisman, I just don't see them winning this game by more than say a field goal or a touchdown. As a matter of fact this team is so lacking battle experience this season that I am calling for them to lose this game straight up to a very hungry Nebraska team that is not happy about their blowout loss to VT last week. MIZZOU WHO?
The Nebraska Cornhuskers and their fans (mostly the fans) are getting fed up with losing big games and they made it well known in their loss against Virginia Tech last week. This fan base was promised better things when Bo Pellini took over head coach and it was so far so good prior to the game against Beamer (the better head coach) and the Hokies last week. Nonetheless the season is not shot for this team because they did some good things before losing that game. Much like Missouri prior to this week, Nebraska was nowhere near ready for a big game like the VT game because they had only played against opponents like Western Michigan, San Jose State and New Mexico State. So they walk into that Hokies game, a battle tested Hokies team, and get beat on all sides of the ball. No shocker there. I don't know what it is about this series but the home team seems to dominate no matter where the teams are ranked and no matter what the talent level difference is for the matchup. What I don't understand is how oddsmakers came up with this ridiculous line? The last four seasons Nebraska has gone 4-1 ATS as a home underdog and even though they have a new head coach now, I think he is much better than Bill Callahan and he should keep the ATS underdog home streak going with a big win and cover in this game. Nebraska comes into this game averaging 37.5 points per game on the season and if anyone can keepup with the Tigers on the offensive side of things it has to be Nebraska. They average a very nice 421.0 total yards of offense per game this season and in those games they have managed to average 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Can you say shootout in this game or what? Missouri has allowed 20.8 points per game this season which doesn't make sense considering the weak opponents they have faced and in those games they have also allowed 378.5 total yards of offense per game and allowed 4.8 yards per play in those games. Not too bad but again their opponents sucked and I don't understand this. On the ground, Nebraska has aveaged 155.5 rushing yards per game this season and they have done that on 4.8 yards per carry in those games. Missouri is very tough against the run and they have allowed their opponents this season to run for only 99.0 rushing yards per game and 2.8 yards per carry. I know Nebraska has to keep running the ball but if this turns into a shootout and you know it will, it's time to unleash the pass attack. QB Joe Ganz has completed 64.4% of his passes this season for 997 passing yards, 9.6 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions which tells me he should have no problems keeping up with his buddy Chase Daniel. Missouri's defense has allowed opponents this season to complete 54.3% of their passes and have allowed those same opponents to average 6.4 yards per pass attempt on the year. What I really like here is the kind of protection Ganz has been able to get from his huge offensive line. They have allowed only 3 sacks in four games this season and that is the best news you could ever hear because Missouri has a total of 11 sacks in four games this season and when they pressure opponents they usually find a way to get the ball back unless they take on a good offensive line like Nebraska's, the best offensive line they have faced all season no doubt about it. The Huskers have been very good at holding onto the ball as they have lost only 3 fumbles on the season but I do have a problem with the amount of penalties they have been taking per game. They currently average 8.0 penalties per game this season which has cost them a cool 68.3 penalty yards per game and I am telling you that this put them in a hole they could not get out of against the Hokies and Beamer last week. Missouri doesn't really do anything special on defense apart from bringing hard pressure from all sides but now that Nebraska knows they can protect Ganz, he should have no problems completing some huge passing plays in this game to keep it close and avoid Missouri jumping out to a huge lead in this game. The Huskers are due for some kind of big win and I think it comes here. This game will probably decide who represents the North in the Big 12 Conference Championship Game and I don't know how they could get blown out again at home two weeks in a row. JUST NOT HAPPENING GUYS, HUSKERS SHOW UP HERE!
I AM ON AN UNDERDOG ROLL THIS WEEK. Don't ask me why, don't doubt it just do what you have to do and recognize that these are the best weeks of the season to bet no underdogs. I say that because it seems like oddsmakers are a bit confused at this point. Some teams look great one week only to come out and look horrendous the next week. I was on Virginia Tech last week when they walked into Nebraska as a touchdown underdog and I called for them to win straight up. I DON'T CARE WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK, Nebraska is not about to lose two straight games at home against big name opponents. This line is absolutely stupid for two teams who hate each other and two teams who are going to battle things out the way rivalry teams do. What I can't understand is how oddsmakers come up with this line after watching a very similar situation arise in the NFL this past weekend. Washington is probably a better overall team than Dallas but they hadn't show it yet but for some reason oddsmakers made them +11.5 underdogs in a divisional battle and that was one of the worst liens I have seen all season. THIS IS THE SAME KIND OF GAME AS THE DALLAS-WASHINGTON GAME! Too many points. Missouri has all the ATS trends going their way this game because they are good in conference play and they have covered 14 of their last 18 games overall. Having said that, Nebraska is a whopping 18-3-1 ATS in their last 22 home games versus teams with a winning road record which is all I really need to know here. Missouri is by no means battle tested, neither was Nebraska last week but now that they have fought a war, they should have no problems keeping this close or winning straight up. Peace!
Trend of the Game: Nebraska is 18-3-1 ATS in their last 22 home games versus teams with a winning road record.
Nebraska 34, Missouri 31
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
:toast:
Recap
Florida Atlantic +3
Louisiana Tech +22
Pittsburgh +13.5
Cincinnati -3
Duke +14.5
Kentucky +16.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Vanderbilt +4.5
Nebraska +11
I am all over the underdogs this week and I think this is the week to do it guys. Linesmakers are confused and some of these lines do not make any sense whatsoever. Good Luck!
