2016 MistaFlava's CFB Betting Record: 25-27-2 ATS (-64.50 Units)
Not the kind of start to the season I was looking for but it's GO time now. Time to get better, cut down the plays and start focusing on making some money and betting on specific games.
2016 Season
Week 1: 2-2 ATS (-1.00 Units)
Week 2: 13-10-1 ATS (+22.50 Units)
Week 3: 10-15-1 ATS (-86.00 Units)
Week 4: Pending...
Good Luck to everyone, some great money to be made out there!
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Saturday, September 24
Alabama Crimson Tide -43.5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
I will be the first to admit I cannot win an Alabama wager (either side) for my life and that's been the case for years now but looking at the early games for Saturday this is one of the ones I like the most. Kent State is awful, they have not had any kind of success against SEC opponents in the past and have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus this Conference. They are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning record on the season and have covered only 11 of their last 34 non-conference games. Alabama is coming off that impressive come from behind win over Ole Miss last weekend and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a spread loss and have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games played at home. They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. I think the Tide come out and just pound the living crap out of Kent State in this one. The defense will have a bounce back game. Win by almost 60.
Trend of the Game: Kent State is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 12 points.
Alabama 59, Kent State 0
Akron Zips +5 (25 Units)
Large play for me and I've been eyeing this one all week however the line has gone the wrong way and I'm going to take it now before I lose out on more points. Appalachian State has been everyone's betting darling the last two or three seasons but Akron is a good squad and they won't be easy to push around at home. If you look back at matchups for Akron against teams from the Sun Belt Conference you will see that they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games versus any team from that Conference. They have a crazy good offense that can put a ton of points up on the board and that's exactly what I see them doing here. The Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last six games coming off a game where they accumulate 450+ total yards of offense the previous game. Overall, and this is dating back to last season, they have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games. Neither team has a very good defense but I think Akron puts up more points and finds a way to win this game. Should be a very good one, one that is overseen by most bettors going all in on bigger fish.
Trend of the Game: Akron is 6-0 ATS in their last six games versus Sun Belt Conference opponents.
Akron 32, Appalachian State 31
Duke Blue Devils +20.5 (10 Units)
Something is off with this Notre Dame team this year and I can't quite pinpoint what it is. Nonetheless they are no longer reliable in any kind of wager let alone a wager where they are favoured by almost three touchdowns against a decent football team. This won't be a popular pick against the 1-2 SU Blue Devils but you can't expect too much from the Irish here. The focus is probably already on games a few weeks down the line. Duke was awful in their last game but they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing 280+ passing yards the game before. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus INDEPENDENT teams so something tells me this is the big one for Duke and this is the one they've been looking forward to for a while. I mean they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games played outside of the ACC Conference and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. Notre Dame has all sorts of problems running the ball this year and they are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off a game where they rush for less than 100 yards. Historically they have not been good at home against mediocre or bad teams and I will continue to ride that trend although I don't think Duke can win this.
Trend of the Game: Notre Dame is 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games after rushing for less than 100 yards the previous game.
Notre Dame 30, Duke 19
Michigan Wolverines -17.5 (10 Units)
What a bad start to the game for the Wolverines last week against Colorado. I don't expect that to happen again here against a much weaker Penn State team. Honestly I have troubling seeing how the Nitts are going to score any kind of points in this game. Don't forget Michigan ending up winning that game huge last week and they are now 2-1 ATS on the season with a perfect W/L record. If you've been taking notes since last season you will know that Penn State is a horrendous wager no matter what the line. They are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall and 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 games played on Field Turf surface (for some reason they just don't play well on this stuff). Penn State has also covered only 3 of their last 18 road games. Yes that's right, 3 of their last 18 so you're telling me they come into Ann Arbour against a high ranked Wolverines team and keep it close? Cmon. Michigan is a very good bounce back team and 6-1 ATS in their last seven coming off an ATS loss. Looking back at this series in recent years, the home team has covered 5 of the last 7 and I expect Michigan to find a way to win this one big.
Trend of the Game: Penn State is 3-13-2 ATS in their last 18 road games.
Michigan 38, Penn State 10
Western Kentucky -8 (25 Units)
Oh yes what a line here. Who in the world doesn't believe Western Kentucky is not going to win at least 10+ points. I mean seriously. Vanderbilt's offense is horrendous and even if they try and shoot things out I just don't see it happening here. I have to say Vandy does have a very good record versus teams from the Conference USA over the years but Western Kentucky is not a normal team and their offense is probably the best Vandy has seen from this Conference in quite some time. Vanderbilt is 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and they come into this game 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Western Kentucky on the other hand is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games, they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up win and they have covered the spread in 13 of the last 18 coming off a game where they allow less than 100 rushing yards to an opponent. Again looking at Conference vs Conference records only, the play here would be Vandy (Western Kentucky is 0-4 ATS in their last four versus SEC Conference opponents) but Vandy is getting the best from the CUSA and the Hilltoppers are getting one of the worst from the SEC so flip those trends here. I'm going WKU to win this one big and cover this weird spread (unless something is up this one is a no brainer).
Trend of the Game: Western Kentucky is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
Western Kentucky 34, Vanderbilt 17
Rice Owls -7 (10 Units)
Small play for me here but one that I have to make. Rice comes into this game well rested, they have a very good offense and it's time to get off the snide and end the three game losing streak to open the season. The Owls did some damage against Baylor last week and if they can bring that type of offense to this game as well, they should win comfortably. North Texas are actually bad and they have been a team to avoid away from home for quite some time. Looking back at their last 14 road games played, the Mean Green Machine have covered only 3 of them. Don't like it. They are also only 5-11 ATS in their last 16 conference games and are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings with Rice. This one could get ugly early. The Owls are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games versus a team that has a losing record on the season. That is an incredible stat and it goes to show that when given the opportunity and expected to win games (specially at home), they find a way to get the job done. They are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games versus a team that has a losing straight up record on the road. This has the recipe of a huge win for Rice and I'm going to have a small stake in it (small because they are winless on the year). Let's go!
Rice 46, North Texas 25
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +4.5 (10 Units)
Staying really low key with the games today, trying to avoid the high profile ones and focus on the weak lines set by Vegas. Like this one. I have not been impressed by either team so far but I do expect the Bulldogs to come out swinging here in what could be a very sloppy game. I mean the Bulldogs found a way to put up 65 points total (combined) against Arkansas and Texas Tech in the first three weeks of the season and they are playing against a Middle Tennessee State team that has allowed 68 points combined in their last two games (Vanderbilt and Bowling Green). I can't trust teams like that. Louisiana Tech is a crazy 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a straight up loss so they are a very good bounce back team and the oddsmakers here are not respecting that at all. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing 40+ points the game before and an even more impressive 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 280+ passing yards in their previous game. Middle Tennessee State is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games versus a team with a losing straight up record on the road and I don't trust them coming off that big win over Bowling Green on the road. This is a letdown spot against a good Bulldogs team.
Trend of the Game: Louisiana Tech is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 280+ passing yards in their previous game.
Louisiana Tech 28, Middle Tennessee State 27
Buffalo Bulls +14.5 (25 Units)
Another line I don't feel is fair and that is flying under the radar. Everyone seems to be very high on this Army team who are now playing with a chip on their shoulder and some added emotion after losing one of their own a few weeks ago (DB died in car crash). Having said that, emotions can run a bit too high sometimes. They won for him last week and they are off to a 3-0 SU start to the season for the first time in God knows how many years. However, if you are backing Army here you are still backing an Army team that has covered the spread in only 8 of their last 30 road games. That is not good at all. Okay I get it Buffalo have looked horrendous in their only two games this season losing to Albany (ouch) and Nevada but again Army is 1-5 ATS in their last six road games versus a team with a losing straight up record at home. I expect a lot more from the Buffalo passing game in this one as they have opportunities to get the ball downfield. Buffalo is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a game where they accumulate less than 170 passing yards in their previous game. Everyone is going to be on this Army squad but I think Buffalo have their best game of the season and again no way in hell Army should be favored by two touchdowns or more away from home under any kind of circumstance. I love this play.
Trend of the Game: Army is 1-5 ATS in their last six road games versus a team with a losing record at home.
Buffalo 26, Army 24
Troy Trojans -20 (10 Units)
Sticking with the theme of low key games again this is a great line. Troy should be rolling in this one against a New Mexico State team that cannot play defense for their lives. The Aggies have allowed 38, 31 and 62 points in their three games this year and none of those against TOP 25 teams like you would expect for a team allowing that many points. Troy have not scored less than 24 points in any game this season dropping 57 on Austin Peay in their opener, dropping an impressive 24 points on Clemson (road game) and then going to Southern Miss and winning 37-31. So this is a good Troy team and they can score some 50 points on any given night against any given opponent. New Mexico State have covered only 7 of their last 23 road games, only 4 of their last 14 conference games, 4 of their last 15 coming off a straight up loss the game before and 5 of their last 19 coming off a spread cover the game before. Troy is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in September they are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games coming off a game where they managed less than 170 passing yards. I say the Trojans come out today and whoop some ass.
Trend of the Game: Troy is 4-1 ATS in their last five games in September.
Troy 59, New Mexico State 31
other plays....
Nebraska Cornhuskers -7.5 (10 Units)
Southern Miss Golden Eagles -12.5 (10 Units)
Stanford Cardinals -3 (10 Units)
UNLV Rebels -15 (10 Units)
:toast:
Not the kind of start to the season I was looking for but it's GO time now. Time to get better, cut down the plays and start focusing on making some money and betting on specific games.
2016 Season
Week 1: 2-2 ATS (-1.00 Units)
Week 2: 13-10-1 ATS (+22.50 Units)
Week 3: 10-15-1 ATS (-86.00 Units)
Week 4: Pending...
Good Luck to everyone, some great money to be made out there!
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Saturday, September 24
Alabama Crimson Tide -43.5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
I will be the first to admit I cannot win an Alabama wager (either side) for my life and that's been the case for years now but looking at the early games for Saturday this is one of the ones I like the most. Kent State is awful, they have not had any kind of success against SEC opponents in the past and have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus this Conference. They are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning record on the season and have covered only 11 of their last 34 non-conference games. Alabama is coming off that impressive come from behind win over Ole Miss last weekend and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a spread loss and have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games played at home. They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. I think the Tide come out and just pound the living crap out of Kent State in this one. The defense will have a bounce back game. Win by almost 60.
Trend of the Game: Kent State is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 12 points.
Alabama 59, Kent State 0
Akron Zips +5 (25 Units)
Large play for me and I've been eyeing this one all week however the line has gone the wrong way and I'm going to take it now before I lose out on more points. Appalachian State has been everyone's betting darling the last two or three seasons but Akron is a good squad and they won't be easy to push around at home. If you look back at matchups for Akron against teams from the Sun Belt Conference you will see that they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games versus any team from that Conference. They have a crazy good offense that can put a ton of points up on the board and that's exactly what I see them doing here. The Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last six games coming off a game where they accumulate 450+ total yards of offense the previous game. Overall, and this is dating back to last season, they have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games. Neither team has a very good defense but I think Akron puts up more points and finds a way to win this game. Should be a very good one, one that is overseen by most bettors going all in on bigger fish.
Trend of the Game: Akron is 6-0 ATS in their last six games versus Sun Belt Conference opponents.
Akron 32, Appalachian State 31
Duke Blue Devils +20.5 (10 Units)
Something is off with this Notre Dame team this year and I can't quite pinpoint what it is. Nonetheless they are no longer reliable in any kind of wager let alone a wager where they are favoured by almost three touchdowns against a decent football team. This won't be a popular pick against the 1-2 SU Blue Devils but you can't expect too much from the Irish here. The focus is probably already on games a few weeks down the line. Duke was awful in their last game but they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing 280+ passing yards the game before. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus INDEPENDENT teams so something tells me this is the big one for Duke and this is the one they've been looking forward to for a while. I mean they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games played outside of the ACC Conference and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. Notre Dame has all sorts of problems running the ball this year and they are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off a game where they rush for less than 100 yards. Historically they have not been good at home against mediocre or bad teams and I will continue to ride that trend although I don't think Duke can win this.
Trend of the Game: Notre Dame is 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games after rushing for less than 100 yards the previous game.
Notre Dame 30, Duke 19
Michigan Wolverines -17.5 (10 Units)
What a bad start to the game for the Wolverines last week against Colorado. I don't expect that to happen again here against a much weaker Penn State team. Honestly I have troubling seeing how the Nitts are going to score any kind of points in this game. Don't forget Michigan ending up winning that game huge last week and they are now 2-1 ATS on the season with a perfect W/L record. If you've been taking notes since last season you will know that Penn State is a horrendous wager no matter what the line. They are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall and 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 games played on Field Turf surface (for some reason they just don't play well on this stuff). Penn State has also covered only 3 of their last 18 road games. Yes that's right, 3 of their last 18 so you're telling me they come into Ann Arbour against a high ranked Wolverines team and keep it close? Cmon. Michigan is a very good bounce back team and 6-1 ATS in their last seven coming off an ATS loss. Looking back at this series in recent years, the home team has covered 5 of the last 7 and I expect Michigan to find a way to win this one big.
Trend of the Game: Penn State is 3-13-2 ATS in their last 18 road games.
Michigan 38, Penn State 10
Western Kentucky -8 (25 Units)
Oh yes what a line here. Who in the world doesn't believe Western Kentucky is not going to win at least 10+ points. I mean seriously. Vanderbilt's offense is horrendous and even if they try and shoot things out I just don't see it happening here. I have to say Vandy does have a very good record versus teams from the Conference USA over the years but Western Kentucky is not a normal team and their offense is probably the best Vandy has seen from this Conference in quite some time. Vanderbilt is 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and they come into this game 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Western Kentucky on the other hand is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games, they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up win and they have covered the spread in 13 of the last 18 coming off a game where they allow less than 100 rushing yards to an opponent. Again looking at Conference vs Conference records only, the play here would be Vandy (Western Kentucky is 0-4 ATS in their last four versus SEC Conference opponents) but Vandy is getting the best from the CUSA and the Hilltoppers are getting one of the worst from the SEC so flip those trends here. I'm going WKU to win this one big and cover this weird spread (unless something is up this one is a no brainer).
Trend of the Game: Western Kentucky is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
Western Kentucky 34, Vanderbilt 17
Rice Owls -7 (10 Units)
Small play for me here but one that I have to make. Rice comes into this game well rested, they have a very good offense and it's time to get off the snide and end the three game losing streak to open the season. The Owls did some damage against Baylor last week and if they can bring that type of offense to this game as well, they should win comfortably. North Texas are actually bad and they have been a team to avoid away from home for quite some time. Looking back at their last 14 road games played, the Mean Green Machine have covered only 3 of them. Don't like it. They are also only 5-11 ATS in their last 16 conference games and are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings with Rice. This one could get ugly early. The Owls are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games versus a team that has a losing record on the season. That is an incredible stat and it goes to show that when given the opportunity and expected to win games (specially at home), they find a way to get the job done. They are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games versus a team that has a losing straight up record on the road. This has the recipe of a huge win for Rice and I'm going to have a small stake in it (small because they are winless on the year). Let's go!
Rice 46, North Texas 25
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +4.5 (10 Units)
Staying really low key with the games today, trying to avoid the high profile ones and focus on the weak lines set by Vegas. Like this one. I have not been impressed by either team so far but I do expect the Bulldogs to come out swinging here in what could be a very sloppy game. I mean the Bulldogs found a way to put up 65 points total (combined) against Arkansas and Texas Tech in the first three weeks of the season and they are playing against a Middle Tennessee State team that has allowed 68 points combined in their last two games (Vanderbilt and Bowling Green). I can't trust teams like that. Louisiana Tech is a crazy 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a straight up loss so they are a very good bounce back team and the oddsmakers here are not respecting that at all. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing 40+ points the game before and an even more impressive 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 280+ passing yards in their previous game. Middle Tennessee State is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games versus a team with a losing straight up record on the road and I don't trust them coming off that big win over Bowling Green on the road. This is a letdown spot against a good Bulldogs team.
Trend of the Game: Louisiana Tech is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 280+ passing yards in their previous game.
Louisiana Tech 28, Middle Tennessee State 27
Buffalo Bulls +14.5 (25 Units)
Another line I don't feel is fair and that is flying under the radar. Everyone seems to be very high on this Army team who are now playing with a chip on their shoulder and some added emotion after losing one of their own a few weeks ago (DB died in car crash). Having said that, emotions can run a bit too high sometimes. They won for him last week and they are off to a 3-0 SU start to the season for the first time in God knows how many years. However, if you are backing Army here you are still backing an Army team that has covered the spread in only 8 of their last 30 road games. That is not good at all. Okay I get it Buffalo have looked horrendous in their only two games this season losing to Albany (ouch) and Nevada but again Army is 1-5 ATS in their last six road games versus a team with a losing straight up record at home. I expect a lot more from the Buffalo passing game in this one as they have opportunities to get the ball downfield. Buffalo is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a game where they accumulate less than 170 passing yards in their previous game. Everyone is going to be on this Army squad but I think Buffalo have their best game of the season and again no way in hell Army should be favored by two touchdowns or more away from home under any kind of circumstance. I love this play.
Trend of the Game: Army is 1-5 ATS in their last six road games versus a team with a losing record at home.
Buffalo 26, Army 24
Troy Trojans -20 (10 Units)
Sticking with the theme of low key games again this is a great line. Troy should be rolling in this one against a New Mexico State team that cannot play defense for their lives. The Aggies have allowed 38, 31 and 62 points in their three games this year and none of those against TOP 25 teams like you would expect for a team allowing that many points. Troy have not scored less than 24 points in any game this season dropping 57 on Austin Peay in their opener, dropping an impressive 24 points on Clemson (road game) and then going to Southern Miss and winning 37-31. So this is a good Troy team and they can score some 50 points on any given night against any given opponent. New Mexico State have covered only 7 of their last 23 road games, only 4 of their last 14 conference games, 4 of their last 15 coming off a straight up loss the game before and 5 of their last 19 coming off a spread cover the game before. Troy is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in September they are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games coming off a game where they managed less than 170 passing yards. I say the Trojans come out today and whoop some ass.
Trend of the Game: Troy is 4-1 ATS in their last five games in September.
Troy 59, New Mexico State 31
other plays....
Nebraska Cornhuskers -7.5 (10 Units)
Southern Miss Golden Eagles -12.5 (10 Units)
Stanford Cardinals -3 (10 Units)
UNLV Rebels -15 (10 Units)
:toast:
