0
0
Handicapping Machine
MistaFlava's 2008 CFB Record: 7-9 ATS (-9.30 Units)
I don't know what happened to my post in the CFB Forum last week but it's gone. I won't pretend it doesn't exist because I went 3-3 ATS for Week 2 and went from being in the + to being in the -. I did however warn all of you that my Week 1 and Week 2 results have always been a disaster (that goes back four or five years now. In 2005 I hit almost 70% the rest of the way and can almost tell you I expect to do the same this year).
Week 1: 4-6 ATS (+3.20 Units)
Week 2: 3-3 ATS (-12.50 Units)
Week 3: Pending
-------------------------------------
Thursday, September 11
North Carolina Tar Heels +5 (5 Units)
The North Carolina Tar Heels are probably not going to be a popular wager this season because they have been horrendous for years and years now and not since the 2001 season have they had a straight up winning season. Well things are probably about to change because head coach Butch Davis enters his second season of coaching here and he has the privilege of working with a whopping 18 returning starters on both sides of the ball which is 9 more returning starters than he had in 2007 when the team finished with a 4-8 SU record. Make no mistake about it this team is going to turn some heads this season and I don't know why anyone would go against them here seeing how they played in some road games last season. North Carolina went 2-2 ATS in road games versus non-ranked opponents as an underdog and that was with only those 9 returning starters. Those games included a 34-31 loss at East Carolina as +5 point underdogs, a 37-10 loss to Wake Forest as +5 point underdogs, a 31-27 loss to NC State as +3 point underdogs and a 27-25 loss at Georgia Tech as +9 point underdogs. The bottom line here being that this team can compete in away games and they have a ton of experience to back that up this season. North Carolina comes into this game off a 35-27 win at home against McNeese State last Thursday. The Tar Heels pulled off some impressive plays in that game and they managed 384.0 total yards of offense on a whopping 7.0 yards per play. That could be a huge problem for Rutgers because the Scarlet Knights defense looked non-existant against Fresno State as they allowed 24 points in that game on 422.0 total yards of offense and 6.7 yards per play. On the ground is where I think North Carolina can make a real impact in this one because Fresno State was able to run for 163.0 yards against Rutgers last week for 5.6 yards per carry. The boys in red allowed a whopping 206.0 rushing yards in that game on 5.3 yards per carry which means I don't like their chances against WR Brandon Tate who rushed for 106 yards last week on only 3 carries which compliments his 2007 season where he rushed 12 times for 131 rushing yards. In the air, QB TJ Yates already has a year of experience under his belt and although he is only a Sophomore, he has shown great signs of promise. Yates completed 57.7% of his passes for 8.5 yards per pass attempt with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Yes he is still a bit raw but he has one of the best WR corps in the ACC and as long as he can get some decent play from his offensive line, he should be fine in this game. Rutgers do have some big guys up front who could cause some havoc is the o-line can't protect Yates but I'm not worried seeing how Fresno State made some big plays on the ground and in the air and were able to average 9.0 yards per pass attempt which should open the door for some big plays downfield. Rutgers defense did not force any turnovers in their opening game and that is of concern because the only way to beat the Tar Heels is to force them into making mistakes. Apart from the Yates interception, this offense was flawless in their opener and I think they can actually have some success against an overrated Rutgers defense that definitely benefited from some tremendous offensive support in 2007 that might not be the case this time around. I like the Tar Heels to score enough points to keep this close.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights did not kickoff their 2008 campaign the way they had planned as they were embarassed on National TV as a field goal and some change favorite against the Fresno State Bulldogs. The team and their head coach Greg Schiano have had more than a week to prepare for this game so you can bet your bottom dollar they won't look as bad as they did against the Bulldogs. Having said that, I just don't think this team has the same kind of pop as they did when a superstar like Ray Rice was here and although he wasn't the only reason this team had success, he was the engine that kept the wheels rolling and now that engine seems to be having some problems. I think it's actually pretty easy to go against Rutgers at this price because if you look at their home games in 2007, Rutgers went 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS when playing against teams from a BCS Conference. The only time they covered the spread was as underdogs against the USF Bulls on National TV and this is a completely different situation. The other games included home losses to Maryland and Cincinnati as home favorites as well as a four point home win over Pittsburgh as -12 point favorites. I just don't see them winning this big. The Scarlet Knights come into this game off a paltry 7 point effort against Fresno State that saw them amass only 369.0 total yards of offense on 5.1 yards per play. North Carolina's defense is probably going to be a lot better this season than it was last season but that wasn't all that obvious in their opener against an I-AA opponent as the Tar Heels somehow allowed 27 points in that game on 391.0 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play (which is respectable). On the ground, Rutgers really struggled to replace Ray Rice as they managed a pathetic 106.0 rushing yards in that game for only 3.1 yards per carry and I expect this unit to continue to struggle as North Carolina was tough against the run in their opener and despite having one of the weakest LB corps in the ACC, should be able to stop the ground attack. The Heels allowed McNeese State to rush for 152.0 total yards on only 3.3 yards per carry. That means I wouldn't be surprised if Rutgers was looking to get an aerial attack going in this game seeing how QB Mike Teel (who will miss Rice the most because he took a load of his shoulders) completed only 51.7% of his passes in the Fresno State game for 6.7 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 2 interceptions. The Heels are not a high pressure type of defense and they are still learning which is why they allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt against McNeese State and allowed their QB to complete 56.3% of his passes. Rutgers looked like a team that could have turnover problems this season as they threw one interceptions and fumbled the ball three times in their opener and that's not good news because I think the Heels are due for some big plays defensively this season and they do have a few playmakers in their secondary. I think Rutgers is going to look a lot better in this game but they still won't do enough to score the points needed to beat North Carolina and that will probably result in their second straight loss to start the year.
My original thoughts on this game were that Rutgers would walk all over the Tar Heels and finally look good to the average bettor. Having said that, I think they miss RB Ray Rice a lot more than we all realized to begin with and there is a very good chance that this will be an off-year for the Scarlet Knights. So although I do see them winning this game and avoiding an 0-2 SU start to the season, I just don't see it as being a runaway affaire and I don't think they can win by more than a field goal against a team on the rise like North Carolina. This game means a lot more to the Tar Heels than it does to Rutgers because the Scarlet Knights have an easy non-conference schedule the rest of the season and they don't play any tough games until the month of October. North Carolina on the other hand has games coming up against Virginia Tech and Miami Florida the next two weeks so this game tonight is to pretty much avoid a 1-3 start to the season (predicting losses to VT and the U in those games although the VT game is at home). I did notice that North Carolina is 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus teams from the Big East Conference but this is their best team in years so I expect that to change. Rutgers has been one of the most consistent teams ATS wise when it comes to non-conference action going 10-2 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games but as they showed in their opener, they are just not as good as the last three or four years. Should be a great game that either goes to overtime or is won on a late field goal. Tar Heels for me.
Trend of the Game: Rutgers is 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
North Carolina 27, Rutgers 26
Friday, September 12
South Florida Bulls -3.5 (10 Units)
The Kansas Jayhawks are coming off two relatively easy walk in the park type of games and that makes you wonder if they have any idea what kind of team they are facing when they walk into Raymond James Stadium for a college football fans bowl like dream matchup. The last time Kansas lost a game was in their Big 12 finale last season against the Missouri Tigers. I can't say this team got any better in 2008 because they do have to replace their top running back as well as their top receiver from the 2007 season. I also think the team is going to take a few steps back this season as much as I want to think they will be just as much of a force this season as last, I just don't see it happening which is going to be a problem for their bettors. The Jayhawks are coming off 49-10 and 29-0 wins over Florida International and Louisiana Tech with this game being the first real test for this team. Kansas is 2-9 SU in their last 11 road opening games. This is still a very good team and they will win some big games this season. I know they went 12-1 SU last season and they do return a very healthy 15 starters on both sides of the ball but their schedule is much tougher this season than it was last season and this game tonight is as tough as it gets in college football. Kansas comes into the game averaging 34.5 points per game this season and they have done that on 461.0 total yards of offense and 6.2 yards per play. I know the South Florida defense hasnt really been tested yet this season but they have allowed 15.5 points per game and allowed only 161.5 total yards of offense per game on 2.8 yards per play in those games. This is one of the toughest defense in all of college football. On the ground is where Kansas makes their money as they average 127.0 rushing yards per game this season for 4.3 yards per carry but the loss of RB Brandon MacAnderson is a tough one and I expect these guys to have problems moving on the ground against a defense that has allowed only 67.5 rushing yards per game this season on only 2.4 yards per carry. That will force the Jayhawks to throw the ball as QB Todd Reesing has completed 67.7% of his passes this season for 6 touchdowns and 1 interception on 7.4 yards per pass attempt. The USF secondary has been freak nasty in their first two games holding opponents to a completion percentage of 44.8% and averaging only 94.0 passing yards per game on 3.2 yards per pass attempt. That should significantly slow down the Jayhawks potent attack and that should result in some Kansas turnovers allowing the Bulls to run away with this game. I think Kansas can score points in bunches but they had two road games last season where they failed to crack the 20 point mark and scored 19 points in each of those games. They were never really tested away from home in 2007 but now they walk into dark territory and I don't think they make it out of this place alive. Kansas goes down if you ask me.
The South Florida Bulls are once being called 'Darhorse National Title Contenders', a title they held for parts of last season, and that has many in Tampa buzzing about this team. Not only are they off to a 2-0 start on the season looking to sweep the board and not suffer upset losses like the one at Rutgers last season but this team has already been to war this season and that war came in their overtime win over UCF last week. That would probably be why the betting public is not very fond of taking the Bulls in this spot and I don't really blame them. Having said that, this is very tough to beat at home (even though Cincinnati did it last season) and they are 14-7 ATS in their last 21 home games as a favorite (actually those are their all-time home games). You know a lot of people assume this program is on its way down because of the way they got blownout in the Sun Bowl against the Oregon Ducks on New Year's Eve of last year but to be honest the Bulls had National Title or BCS Bowl intentions for the most part of that season and to have that taken away had these guys in terms of interest. Well this is a new season, they have already past their first test and done it in impressive fashion and I expect some big things from this team starting with tonight's game. The Bulls come into this game averaging 43.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by averaging 512.0 total yards of offense on 6.6 yards per play. Kansas is supposed to have a tough defense and I don't doubt that they do as they have allowed only 5.0 points per game this season and allowed only 203.0 total yards of offense per game on 3.8 yards per play, but they don't have me convinced that they can stop USF here. South Florida has been lethal on the ground so far this season amassing 229.0 rushing yards
This is another one of those where at the naked eye I thought the Kansas Jayhawks looked like easy money. The more I sat down about this and the more I thought about it, I remember South Florida being one hell of a force at home the last few seasons against ranked opponents and against non-conference opponents. The Bulls are actually 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games and like I said before they are one of the toughest programs to beat at home with the standards they have set for themselves. Kansas on the other hand was an ATS wrecking machine which has me thinking that they are due for an off-year on the ATS front. The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference home games. Having said that, this game is probably going to go back and forth for quite some time but the home field advantage and the toughness of South Florida is going to be too much for the Jayhawks to handle and I don't see them keeping up offensively. RB Brandon McAnderson and WR Marcus Henry were worth 26 touchdowns (running and passing) last season and I still think it's going to take a lot of time to replace them. Since 2005, ranked opponents have not enjoyed visiting South Florida. Just ask Louisville who lost 45-14 here in 2005 as a #9 and -20 point favorite. Or you can ask the #24 Rutgers Scarlet Knights who in 2006 barely escaped this place with a 22-20 win as -4 point favorites. Or the #5 ranked Mountaineers last season who lost 21-13 as -7 point favorites. For once South Florida gets the ATS respect they deserve and I don't think they will disappoint.
Trend of the Game: South Florida is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games
South Florida 29, Kansas 16
Saturday, September 13
Iowa Hawkeyes -13.5 (5 Units)
The Iowa State Hawkeyes are probably going to be a lot more competitive this season than they have been in the past and that should almost guarantee them good ATS results because oddsmakers still have them pegged as bottom feeders in the Big 12 Conference. Having said that, they have almost already reached their win total for 2007 where they finished 3-9 SU and have now failed to register a winning season two years in a row. The faithful of Ames are not losing their minds just yet because they were promised bigger and better things this season which for the time being, looks to be true. The Cyclones come into this game with a 2-0 SU record (1-0 ATS in those games) as they beat both South Dakota State and Kent State at home. Playing on the road is a completely different animal as many of you know and the Cyclones are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games. I know recent meetings between these teams have been close but if you look at the big picture of things here, only 3 of the last 14 meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less so someone is going to win this game big. Iowa State is 0-11 SU in their last 11 road games and have won only 5 of their 30 road games since the 2002 season. There is some promise with so many guys back from last season but I don't think their Sophomore QB Austen Arnaud has any clue what he is in for when he walks into Kinnick Stadium. The Cyclones come into this game averaging 46.0 points per game this season which is a dramatic change from the 18.2 and 18.8 points per game they averaged the last two seasons respectively. Having said that, most of those points have been created by the defense as the offense averages only 381.0 total yards of offense per game on 6.0 yards per play. Iowa's defense has not really been tested as of yet but they have allowed only 3 points all season in two games on 219.0 total yards of offense and only 3.6 yards per play this season. This is not the flashiest defense in the Big 10 but they can be dominant. On the ground, Iowa State unleashed some furry on their opponents this season rushing for 194.5 yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry but don't expect them to get much done on the ground here as the Hawkeyes have allowed only 96.5 rushing yards per game on 3.1 yards per carry. Yes Iowa's defensive weakness is the run but running a lot wont be easy for Iowa State if they have to play from behind. In the air, QB Austen Arnaud faces his first real college football test as he has looked decent completing 76.9% of his passes for 10.2 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. However, Iowa's defense has allowed their opponents to complete only 47.5% of their passes this season for only 4.2 yards per pass attempt. Arnaud has yet to be intercepted but I think that streak ends today as the Iowa secondary already has 4 interceptions and they will be ready with some pressure. The Hawkeyes defense is going to be all over Arnaud forcing him into some bad throws here as they already have 7 sacks on the season and the sophomore QB has been sacked twice. Iowa State has looked very shaky when it comes to holding onto the football as they have already lost a whopping 4 fumbles this season which can't be good news against a defense looking to make plays at home. Much like seasons past it seems that Iowa State has a discipline issue, having already taken 12 penalties this season and it's the small things like that that will cost them on the ATS front in this game. I think this offense struggles bad here leading to a blowout loss.
The Iowa Hawkeyes have screwed me time after time over the last couple of seasons but I am willing to back them here as we are offered slim pickings for the early day games. Last season was the first time in who knows how many seasons that Iowa did not play in a Bowl Game and failed to make the post-season but that was to be expected and now Kirk Frentz celebrates his 10th season here with a squad he believes can win at least 8 games and return to respectable levels. If you think for one second that Iowa has forgotten about last season's 17-15 loss as huge favorites on the road against their in-state rivals from Iowa State, you are out of your mind because they have definitely not. The Hawkeyes big problem last season was their lack of offensive productions as they managed to score a Ferentz all-time low of only 18.5 points per game. With the only three games who got rush attempts in 2007 now gone (Young, Sims and Pugh combined for 323 rush attempts last season), the fresh faces are in and the youngsters have not disappointed so far. The big games start this week for Iowa as they have Pittsburgh on the road next and host Northwestern for homecoming which means a win in this game and this team will probably be 4-0 SU when they head into Michigan State and Indiana in early October for huge road games before returning home to Wisconsin. So the importance of this game is high. Iowa comes into this game already averaging 44.0 points per game and unlike Iowa State, their offense has earned it by averaging 484.5 total yards of offense per game on 7.0 yards per play in those games. The Iowa State defense has already allowed 22.5 points per game this season (way too many in my eyes considering the opponents they have faced) and in those games they have allowed 380.0 total yards of offense on 5.9 yards per play which won't cut it against a tough road opponent in a rivalry games. On the ground is where the concern was for Iowa before the season but the bell has been answered and the Hawkeyes average an impressive 243.0 rushing yards per game already on 5.7 yards per carry. RB Shonn Greene already has 239 rushing yards in two games but the good part is that he played games in 2005 and 2006 for the Hawkeyes so he knows the system. Iowa State has been horrendous against the run this season allowing a crazy 211.5 rushing yards per game and allowing a huge 6.2 yards per carry in those games. I don't know that Iowa has to do much more than pound the ball into the ground but in the air they will probably use two QB's. Both Jake Christensen and Ricky Stanzi should see some time on the field but it is Stanzi who impressed the most this season and Stanzi who is averaging 7.4 yards per carry on 7 run attempts. As a unit, the Hawkeyes have completed 64.8% of their passes this season for 8.9 yards per pass attempt while being sacked only one time and throwing two interceptions (Stanzi has 3 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions so you can expect him to play). On the flip side of things Iowa State's defense has allowed opposing teams to complete 55.7% of their passes (both weak opponents) and those passes have been for 5.5 yards per pass attempt which is not bad. However, the fact that Iowa plans on running these guys into the ground can't be good because it won't be tough for the QB's to find guys like DJK or TE Brandon Myers on deep routes. Both combined for 7 receiving TD's last season and they have already combined for 3 touchdown passes this season. The offensive line is going to be a force this season for this Iowa team and with the running abilities in this game and the time they will have to make plays downfield, I expect this game to get out of hand in a hurry. Iowa State has somehow recovered 5 fumbles in the two games they have played (resulting in all those points they have scored) but Iowa is going to be very disciplined under Ferentz this season and they have already shown signs of that by averaging only 3.0 penalties per game and losing only one fumble total on the year. There are too many factors pointing to a huge Iowa revenge win this game and I will follow those factors and take them for a trip to my local off-shore bank.
If you look at past matchups in this rivalry, it's quite easy to see that all the games are generally close and large spreads like this one are a waste of time. Having said that, those kinds of numbers are often a waste of time because every game is different and most of these players were not around the last 3-4 times Iowa State came to Iowa City for a visit. We all know the crowd is going to be wild for this game. In 2004, Iowa hosted this game as a -20.5 favorite and ended up winning only 17-10. In 2006, Iowa hosted this game as a -14 point favorite (reminds of this game) and ended up winning only 27-17. So the reason the public has not pounded the Iowa line is because many of you predict a closer game than the experts think. The Hawkeyes have not enjoyed success against Big 12 opponents going 1-4 ATS in their last five games but this is a bit different because the new blood is ready to play around here and the program is taking steps in the right direction. I have always said that Kinnick is a very tough place to play and the fact that Iowa is 36-16 ATS in their last 52 home games pretty confirms that for me. The underdog has won the last four meetings and Iowa State is 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Iowa City. Having said that, I really like this Hawkeyes team to play with fire in their game as they seek revenge for last season's embarrassing road loss. Hawkeyes huge for me.
Trend of the Game: Iowa is 36-16 ATS in their last 52 home games.
Iowa 41, Iowa State 19
South Carolina Gamecocks +7 (10 Units)
The Georgia Bulldogs come into this game with a certain level of embarrassment after losing 16-12 at home in last year's meeting with Steve Spurrier and South Carolina as -3.5 point underdogs. What's funny is that at the time last season, Georgia was not considered a force in the SEC East and just one year later they find themselves favored by a touchdown in a game that could very well decided the East when all is said and done. Last year's game marked the first time in six years that Georgia failed to score a touchdown against their rivals from Columbia and although I don't see that happening again this season, I do see this team having problems winning the game straight up, let alone winning the game by a touchdown margin. The Bulldogs are 2-0 SU to start the year with an ATS winner against Central Michigan last week but they have been a nightmare to bet on the last four seasons as road favorites going 5-7 ATS in those games and not covering more than one per season in three of those seasons. Looking back at some of Georgia's road games in 2007, they went to Alabama and won by three in overtime, they went to Tennessee and lost 35-14 as -1 point favorites, they went to Vanderbilt and won 20-17 as -7 point favorites and then they blewout Georgia Tech in their road finale. So the history for Mark Richt winning SEC road games by large margins is not good and I really don't see where the oddsmakers came up with this line. Georgia comes into this game averaging 50.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on 543.5 total yards of offense per game and a whopping 8.5 yards per play. However, seeing how they played against Georgia Southern and Central Michigan, I would say this SC defense is a bit better. As a matter of fact, the Cocks have the best LB Corps in the conference and maybe in the Nation. South Carolina has allowed 12.0 points per game this season and allowed only 181.5 total yards of offense per game on only 3.3 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Georgia comes into this game averaging a whopping 237.5 rushing yards per game on an incredible 7.0 yards per carry (Knowshon is freak nasty) but much like they did last season, South Carolina should contain the run as they have allowed only 112.0 rushing yards per game this season on 2.9 yards per carry. IF YOU CAN STOP GEORGIA FROM RUNNING THE BALL, YOU CAN BEAT THE BULLDOGS. Pretty simple coaching it seems. That should force QB Matthew Stafford to throw the ball a lot more than he has. Stafford has completed 63.3% of his passes this season for 10.0 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 1 interception. Where have the 10 interceptions from last season gone? Well here they are in this game. South Carolina has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 39.4% of their passes this season for a minuscule 4.2 yards per pass attempt so you can forget about Georgia taking this thing and running away with it. I expect a ton of pressure from both the inside and the outside on Stafford who has shown to be mistake prone in the past and South Carolina already has 4 sacks to their name this season to go along with 2 interceptions 4 forced fumbles and 3 recovered fumbles which makes them an aggressive defense that can create big plays. Georgia has shown no signs that they can stay disciplined this season having already taken 20 penalties in two games for 70.0 penalty yards per game and the Gamecocks are going to take full advantage of that. So although I think Georgia can look a bit better than they did last season, I don't see them walking into this place and coming out with an easy, as a matter of fact I see them coming out of here with a huge dent in their National Title Contender resume. Much like last season, Mark Richt will have problems getting points off this defense.
The South Carolina Gamecocks already have some bettors black listing their asses after that horrendous display at Vanderbilt last week that saw them walk into that place as -9.5 point favorites only to get shocked by the smaller underdog to the tune of 24-17. Not only does that seriously hamper this team's chances of winning the SEC East and playing in the Title game for the first time in the Spurrier era but this also means that this game right here is pretty to decide who wins the East. The hype around this game is only going to grow as the week goes along because with so many other big games scheduled for this week, it will be easy for public joe bettors to lose focus and assume that the line has been correctly established for this game. You are telling me than an SEC showdown has a line of -7 for the road team? WTF is that? Columbia has always been a tough place for opponents to play and this should be no different. The Gamecocks are only 3-6 ATS as home underdogs in Steve Spurrier's time here but having said that, do you all remember their near upset of eventual National Champions LSU here last season as +17 point underdogs? Or how about the near home win over #2 Auburn in 2006 as +13 home underdogs.This is not about offense only, this is about defense and SC has one of the best defenses in the Country which should keep them close in all their home games this season. South Carolina comes into this game averaging 25.5 points per game and they have managed to do that on 347.0 total yards of offense and 5.1 yards per play. Now just to explain once again that lack of offense won't matter if the SC defense shows up. It also has to be mentioned that SC is one of only a few BCS Conference teams that have played two lined games this season. Georgia despite winning both their games have actually allowed 19.9 points per game this season and they have also allowed 299.5 total yards of offense per game on 4.4 yards per play which gives the Cocks a chance. On the ground, South Carolina has not looked good at all which could be why their passing game has struggled. They average only 131.5 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry but RB Mike Davis has been the lone shining star and I think he can make an impact on this defense that has allowed only 80.5 rushing yards per game this season on only 2.8 yards per carry. So as much as Davis can move the chains, this entire game falls in the hands of QB Chris Smelley (who has never played a down against Georgia). The sophomore has completed 63.6% of his passes this season for a decent 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. I have a feeling we don't see Bleecher at any point of this game. The offensive line has been a huge problem for South Carolina as they have already allowed 9 sacks in two games and their QB's are under constant pressure. That has resulted in six interceptions and a lot of game changing plays. That brings to believe that against Georgia the plan will be to move the ball a lot faster. The Bulldogs have allowed their opponents to complete only 52.5% of their passes this season for 5.5 yards per pass attempt and they have managed to record four sacks and two interceptions which is not impressive considering who they have played. SEC games are usually decided by turnovers (late ones at that) and this game should be no different. This is where the Gamecocks hold the edge because not only does their defense have more aggressive tendencies but their offense has lost only 1 fumble all season and the Georgia Bulldogs defense has yet to recover a single opponent fumble this season. I talked a little bit about the difference penalties are going to make in big games like this and I wasn't joking because South Carolina is known for having discipline problems and they do average 7.5 penalties per game this season but that only comes out to 54.5 penalty yards per game which comes nowhere near what Georgia is averaging. Expect some tense moments in this game and as poorly as the SC offense will play at times, they will compensate with tough SEC defense that will make big plays, keep this game close and give this team a shot on the last drive of the game.
The problem with College Football bettors is that they invest too much time and money in past results. South Carolina is coming off a road loss to Vanderbilt, Georgia is coming off two blowout wins at home so everyone thinks Georgia is going to walk in here and kill this Cocks team just because Vanderbilt did it last week. Well it never works that way guys, cmon. The bottom line is that South Carolina was probably looking forward to this game in their loss to Vandy and history in SEC games has it that this should be a low-scoring battle in the trenches that will probably and most likely be won by a late field goal or with some overtime. It would not surprise me to see the Gamecocks keep the Bulldogs off the touchdown board for the most part of this game and regardless of how poor the QB play has been for Steve Spurrier, his defense is going to keep his team around long enough to win this thing. There is no ATS knock on the Georgia Bulldogs because they have covered the spread in five straight games going back to last season. Having said that, they are only 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games coming off a win of 20 or more points. South Carolina is 5-1 ATS at home in their last six home games versus winning road teams and they are generally a good team to bet on in September. They have failed to cover the spread in five straight SEC games but this about to change for the good. SC keeps it close and wins on a last second field goal.
Trend of the Game: Georgia is 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games that follow a win of 20+ points.
South Carolina 23, Georgia 22
Ohio State Buckeyes +10.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Ohio State Buckeyes looked aboslutely horrendous at home last week in their game against in-state Ohio University but that doesn't mean they didn't have their eyes on this game ahead of time. Just about everyone has already written the Buckeyes off in this battle of the college football titans and I think that's a big mistake. What you have to understand is that the Buckeyes have always been underestimated against teams from the PAC-10 Conference and that has caused nightmares for the average joe bettor who sees teams like USC as runaway winners in games like this. Well the Buckeyes will never be a pushover team as long as Jim Tressel is around. This is only the second time in the last four seasons that the Buckeyes have been the underdog in a road game and the oddsmakers have slapped them with a +10.5? WOW! The last time the experts in Vegas doubted these guys was in 2006 when they paid a nice little visit to Texas as +2 point underdogs only to shut everyone up and win that game 24-7. I know some of you may think i'm stupid because of the way this team has played this season but don't be surprised if Ohio State wins this game and wins this game big. The big concern on everyones minds is the status of outstanding RB Beanie Wells and it has now been confirmed that Wells is doubtful for this game (although he was going to play at first). The Buckeyes come into this game averaging a decent 34.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on 383.5 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play. Those kinds of numbers probably won't get it done against USC. In their lone game of the season the Trojans allowed only 7 points and they allowed 187.0 total yards of offense against Virginia on 3.3 yards per play. Having said that, Ohio State's offense is notches better than the Cavaliers offense. On the ground, Beanie Wells is back and he leads a backfield that averages a whopping 206.5 rushing yards per game on a very decent 5.0 yards per carry (that was without him for most of the time). The Trojans have not really been tested on the ground yet this season which is why they have allowed only 32 rushing yards all year for only 1.5 yards per carry. I think Wells, should he play, will be used in both the backfield and on off-setting screens and that should move the chains on quite a few occasions. In the air, QB Todd Boeckman has completed 66.7% of his passes for a very conservative 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. The offensive line has been a bit of a concern in terms of QB protection as Boeckman has been sacked four times and USC has some size and toughness up front but there is nothing Jim Tressel can't fix and I think the protection will be at its best in this game. USC has allowed the Virginia QB to complete 51.4% of his passes for 4.4 yards per pass attempt. They also had 2 sacks and 1 interceptions but I don't know that they are as aggressive as they were in 2007. Ohio State is not a team that is going to take stupid penalties or make mental mistakes as they average only 3.5 penalties per game for only 26.5 penalty yards per game. In a game like this discipline is very important and I think bunch has what it takes to get it done. They won't turn the ball over much and they will not make the kinds of mistakes that lose games. I really like the matchup on the ground because it should open things up for Boeckman to go deep a few times and take some risks against this plain looking defense. I don't know what Tressel has planned for this week but the one thing I do know is that he hasn't shown any of it yet this season and yet the Buckeyes have managed to win both their games whether they looked good or not. This is the biggest game since that visit to Texas in 2006 and the Buckeyes won't disappoint.
The Southern California Trojans are only into the second game of their young season and yet this is the biggest game they will probably play all season. I think it's very hard to judge this team based on what they have done so far because Virginia is set to be one of the worst teams in the ACC this season and the Trojans 52-7 blowout win on the road doesn't really mean much right now. The ACC and the Big East are two conferences with aboslutely no worth right now so we start on the drawing board with this game. What you have to ask yourself is if this game was being played on Week 1 of the season would the line be the same? I highly doubt it and I think it's a big mistake to paint a line so high. Yes the Trojans did look great in their opener and yes they do have one of the best teams in college football but so does Ohio State. I am a huge fan of Pete Caroll and the things he has done for this program which means I will be betting on the Trojans more often than not this season (I was on the Week 1) because I think they will make it to the BCS Championship Game. However I do not believe they are 10.5 points better than the Buckeyes which is why I am fading them here. WR Vidal Hazelton who caught 5 passes against Virginia and who was the #3 receiver on this team last season is out for this game and that could favor the Buckeyes in terms of secondary matchups because someone has to take his spot. Souther California comes into this game as the #1 team in the Nation and they managed to score 52 points in their opening game on a whopping 555.0 total yards of offense and 7.2 yards per play which means they have some explosive weapons to work with. Ohio State however has one of the toughest defenses in the Nation (the last time I said that LSU made them look stupid so I approach with caution this time around) and they have allowed only 7.0 points per game this season on 164.0 total yards per game and only 3.2 yards per play. I know their opponents were only Youngstown State and Ohio University but the Buckeyes looked sharp at most times. On the ground, USC has a plethora of capable backs who can hurt you both in the air and on the grass as they had 215 rushing yards in their season opener for 5.4 yards per carry. However, running on the Buckeyes is not all that easy as they have allowed only 67.0 rushing yards per game this season on 2.6 yards per carry in those games. The passing game is where this game will be won or lost. This is the first primetime matchup for QB Mark Sanchez and we are about to see what this kid is made of. Sanchez completed 74.3% of his passes in the opener for 9.7 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes and 1 interceptions. We all know Ohio State is going to come after him as hard as they can in this one and although they only have 3 sacks total on the season, I think they have enough size and enough guidance to penetrate the big USC front line and get some leverage to force mistakes. Their defense has allowed opponents to complete only 46.2% of their passes this season for only 3.7 yards per carry and with one of the top LB crops in the Country there is no reason for these guys not to be able to come up with some big plays in this game. They have already intercepted 4 passes this season and have recovered 2 fumbles and as I mentioned before if you are going to make some noise in the National Title picture games, you need to force turnovers and you need to have playmakers on both sides of the ball. Sanchez was sharp in his season opener but the team did take 7 penalties in that game for 68 penalty yards and if they continue to lack discipline in this game, those few penalties could cost them against a Jim Tressell led team. The Trojans have been known to win big games at home but again these two teams are too close in talent and these two teams are both hungry for a National Title. In no way shape or form will this game be a runaway for either team. Everyone thought USC shoulda had Ohio State's spot in that BCS Title game last season so this is a great chance for the Trojans to show their worth. They might do it here but it won't be by more than a few points.
I have to kick this off by mentioning that SINCE 1991 OHIO STATE IS 11-2 SU AGAINST TEAMS FROM THE PAC-10 CONFERENCE and this game should be no different. The National Title is pretty much on the line here since the losing team will have the burden of explaining to the BCS why they lost their biggest game of the year and how that entitles them a spot in holy grail of college football games. I talked about this earlier and it needs to be explained again. As garbage as the Buckeyes looked against Ohio last week, you have to understand that all they were hearing about was this game against USC and most of the players just went through the motions to get out of that game alive and begin preparing for the matchup of the year. Ohio State will be ready, mark my words right now. Both teams have had success against the others Conference over the last few years which makes this an even more intriguing matchup. Ohio State is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games versus teams from the PAC 10 and it has become quite obvious that Jim Tressel knows how to beat these teams from out West. The Buckeyes are also 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games versus teams with a winning home record and they are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games overall. USC is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games versus teams from the Big 10 Conference but Ohio State is a different animal. They are also outstanding in non-conference action compared to Ohio State but I really like the Buckeyes to keep this game close and possibly steal this one late. I know USC is due and it is probably their turn to play in the BCS Title Game but Ohio State still has business to run in the title game after losing two in a row. Buckeyes are the play here.
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games versus teams with a winning home record.
Ohio State 28, Southern California 21
Wisconsin Badgers -2 (10 Units)
The Wisconsin Badgers are my second Big 10 road wager of the week and it somehow turns out that both games are being played in California. Don't get me wrong, I don't bet on the Big 10 teams all that often but there is no way I could resist both of these wagers and something tells me I will not be disappointed. The Badgers come into this game off some impressive wins at home aganist weaker opponents and although this is going to be one of the toughest non-conference games this team has played in years, I really believed they can get the job done. Wisconsin comes into this game with hopes of facing both Ohio State and Penn State with an undefeated record and in order to do that they need to win this game. What I really like about the Badgers here is that they have an entire week off to prepare for Michiagn once this game is all said and done so the only thing on their minds right now is winning this game and proving to the world that Fresno State is not going to upset every game they play as the underdog. The Badgers are a perfect 7-0 SU since 2002 when playing on the road against a non-conference opponent at the opponents home or on a neutral site and this game should be no different. Bret Bielema is now in his third season as the head coach of this program and there is no way I see him losing this game to a team from the WAC Conference. In his first season here the team was 3-0 ATS in away games as the favorite but they went 0-2 ATS in that category last season. Wisconsin comes into this game averaging 44.5 points per game this season and there is no doubt this offense can make some noise. They also average 483.0 total yards per game and have done so by averaging 6.9 yards per play in those games. I think this offense is going to be a handful for the Fresno State defense who have only faced a hapless Rutgers offense. The Bulldogs allowed 7 points in that game and they allowed 369.0 total yards of offense on 5.1 yards per play. On the ground is where Wisconsin is so tough because RB PJ Hill is one of the best in the Nation and he helps this team eat clock and control tempo of the game. The Badgers are averaging 281.0 rushing yards per game this season on 5.5 yards per carry as Hill already has 267 rushing yards on the season with 4 touchdowns. That should be enough to bulldoze the Fresno State defense that allowed 106 rushing yards on 3.1 yards per carry against a pedestrian and Ray Rice-less Rutgers rushing attack. In the air, QB Allan Evridge has adapted quite well to his new system and that showed in his first two games as he completed 66.7% of his passes for 10.6 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 1 interception. Fresno State's pass defense was impressive against a useless Mike Teel last week as they allowed him to complete only 51.3% of his passes for 6.7 yards per pass attempt. This defense also had two interceptions in that game and Evridge really needs to be careful he doesn't get too comfortable in his sets. What I really like here however is that Hill and the running game should really soften up this experienced Fresno State defense, enough to the point where the Badgers can take some shots downfield and convert their big play opportunities. Wisconsin has not fumbled the ball 6 times this season (losing three of those along the way) so that can be a concern but Bielema said in his press conference that the issue had been addressed heading into this game and we have to trust him on this one. The Bulldogs failed to recover a single fumble in their season opening game and the only way they are going to beat the Badgers is if they can force into making some mental mistakes and force them into unorthodox plays. Wisconsin is averaging only 4.5 penalties per game this season and with that kind of discpline I like their chances to score some points when this game matters most. The Badgers are going to badger the Bulldogs on the ground and stick a few nails in the Fresno State coffin with some deep bombs to Travis Beckum for six and the extra. I really like Wisconsin here.
The Fresno State Bulldogs are my pick to make the BCS if any of the non-BCS Conference teams ever make it that far this season. This is a very well coached team that Pat Hill knows how to use and they are going to be jacked up for this game knowing that this would almost guarantee to have the BCS buzzing about putting these guys in a post-New Years Bowl Game (pending they win all the games they should win the rest of the seasno). I would call this Fresno State's Super Bowl had it not been for a road game they have coming up against UCLA in a few weeks but nonetheless this game is huge for this team. I would normally be on them in this spot but they have not hosted a ranked team since a 31-24 loss to Oregon in 2006 as +3. So as much as this team gets hyped up by the media and as good as I think they are, I will only be betting on this team when they go on the road because oddsmakers don't give them much of a chance away from home and its the complete opposite when it comes to home games. The oddsmakers tend to give them a bit too much value. What should discourage quite a few from betting on this team is the fact that they are 1-4 SU all-time versus teams from the Big Ten Conference and I don't think they match up too well with the size and the speed of the big boys of this conference. Fresno State comes into this game off a decent 24 point performance in their game against Rutgers and what made that even more impressive is the fact that they managed to get 422.0 total yards of offense in that game and did it on 6.7 yards per play. Wisconsin is not going to be as easy to get by as the Scarlet Knights were as they return a whopping 9 starters to a defense that struggled late in the season and they have allowed only 15.5 points per game this season on 305.5 total yards of offense in those games for 5.5 yards per play. That sounds like a lot but the Badgers scored so much they rarely had the ball in those games. On the ground, Fresno State dominated big time against Rutgers rushing for 206 yards on 5.3 yards per carry which is why they had so much success moving the ball. Having said that, Wisconsin is almost impossible to run against as they have allowed only 72.5 rushing yards per game this season and allowed only 2.8 yards per carry in those games. With the newfound struggled in the running attack I don't think Fresno State can be as effective throwing the ball even though QB Tom Brandstater didn't look all that good in the game against Rutgers. He completed only 45.7% of his passes in that game for 9.0 yards per pass attempt and no touchdowns or interceptions. If you want to say there is a weakness in the Wisconsin defense it would be their pass defense as they allow their opponents this season to complete 55.4% of their passes for 5.6 yards per pass attempt but as I mentioned before the Bulldogs rely too much on their running game to get things going and with no running game I don't think Brandstater can handle all the pressure. The Badgers have some very aggressive DB's who have already combined to grab 3 interceptions on the season despite taking risks in their sets. Fresno State beat Rutgers because they stayed away from turnovers but I don't think that will be the case here. The Bulldogs have some fire power on both sides of the ball but the Wisconsin defense is big and they are fast and I think they are going to come away with some huge plays in this game. Fresno State took 6 penalties in their opening game and with so much hype and with a National TV audience watching their every move (second half when the OSU-USC game is done), I think this team is going to struggle to handle the underdog role.
Damn I didn't realize this until now but I have picked three Big Ten Conference teams to win and cover the spread this week and that's a bit scary seeing the way this conference has performed so far this season. The Badgers know this game means a lot to them if they are going to continue their streak of playing Bowl Games in the New Year or better. I say that because they have a tough in-conference schedule coming up and altough they are prone for an upset playing in a different time zone against a potential BCS Bowl Game participant, I just don't see them losing this game. Not here, not now and not under these circumstances. I have always been a big fan of betting on Wisconsin when they are at their best and that has always been during the month of September where they are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in this month. The Badgers are also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games and they have more often than not followed a big win with another big win. I talked about this a bit earlier and I said it meant a lot. Fresno State does not play the same kind of football at home as they do on the road where they are almost always underdogs. As a matter of fact they are only 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games and only 3-9 ATS following more than a week off between games. I really like Pat Hill and his team but I don't see them being a match for Wisconsin. Look for the Badgers to end their 6 game ATS road losing streak.
Trend of the Game: Wisconsin is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 September games.
Wisconsin 31, Fresno State 18
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
RECAP:
North Carolina +5
South Florida -3.5
Iowa -13.5
South Carolina +7
Ohio State +10.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Wisconsin -2
:toast:
I don't know what happened to my post in the CFB Forum last week but it's gone. I won't pretend it doesn't exist because I went 3-3 ATS for Week 2 and went from being in the + to being in the -. I did however warn all of you that my Week 1 and Week 2 results have always been a disaster (that goes back four or five years now. In 2005 I hit almost 70% the rest of the way and can almost tell you I expect to do the same this year).
Week 1: 4-6 ATS (+3.20 Units)
Week 2: 3-3 ATS (-12.50 Units)
Week 3: Pending
-------------------------------------
Thursday, September 11
North Carolina Tar Heels +5 (5 Units)
The North Carolina Tar Heels are probably not going to be a popular wager this season because they have been horrendous for years and years now and not since the 2001 season have they had a straight up winning season. Well things are probably about to change because head coach Butch Davis enters his second season of coaching here and he has the privilege of working with a whopping 18 returning starters on both sides of the ball which is 9 more returning starters than he had in 2007 when the team finished with a 4-8 SU record. Make no mistake about it this team is going to turn some heads this season and I don't know why anyone would go against them here seeing how they played in some road games last season. North Carolina went 2-2 ATS in road games versus non-ranked opponents as an underdog and that was with only those 9 returning starters. Those games included a 34-31 loss at East Carolina as +5 point underdogs, a 37-10 loss to Wake Forest as +5 point underdogs, a 31-27 loss to NC State as +3 point underdogs and a 27-25 loss at Georgia Tech as +9 point underdogs. The bottom line here being that this team can compete in away games and they have a ton of experience to back that up this season. North Carolina comes into this game off a 35-27 win at home against McNeese State last Thursday. The Tar Heels pulled off some impressive plays in that game and they managed 384.0 total yards of offense on a whopping 7.0 yards per play. That could be a huge problem for Rutgers because the Scarlet Knights defense looked non-existant against Fresno State as they allowed 24 points in that game on 422.0 total yards of offense and 6.7 yards per play. On the ground is where I think North Carolina can make a real impact in this one because Fresno State was able to run for 163.0 yards against Rutgers last week for 5.6 yards per carry. The boys in red allowed a whopping 206.0 rushing yards in that game on 5.3 yards per carry which means I don't like their chances against WR Brandon Tate who rushed for 106 yards last week on only 3 carries which compliments his 2007 season where he rushed 12 times for 131 rushing yards. In the air, QB TJ Yates already has a year of experience under his belt and although he is only a Sophomore, he has shown great signs of promise. Yates completed 57.7% of his passes for 8.5 yards per pass attempt with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Yes he is still a bit raw but he has one of the best WR corps in the ACC and as long as he can get some decent play from his offensive line, he should be fine in this game. Rutgers do have some big guys up front who could cause some havoc is the o-line can't protect Yates but I'm not worried seeing how Fresno State made some big plays on the ground and in the air and were able to average 9.0 yards per pass attempt which should open the door for some big plays downfield. Rutgers defense did not force any turnovers in their opening game and that is of concern because the only way to beat the Tar Heels is to force them into making mistakes. Apart from the Yates interception, this offense was flawless in their opener and I think they can actually have some success against an overrated Rutgers defense that definitely benefited from some tremendous offensive support in 2007 that might not be the case this time around. I like the Tar Heels to score enough points to keep this close.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights did not kickoff their 2008 campaign the way they had planned as they were embarassed on National TV as a field goal and some change favorite against the Fresno State Bulldogs. The team and their head coach Greg Schiano have had more than a week to prepare for this game so you can bet your bottom dollar they won't look as bad as they did against the Bulldogs. Having said that, I just don't think this team has the same kind of pop as they did when a superstar like Ray Rice was here and although he wasn't the only reason this team had success, he was the engine that kept the wheels rolling and now that engine seems to be having some problems. I think it's actually pretty easy to go against Rutgers at this price because if you look at their home games in 2007, Rutgers went 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS when playing against teams from a BCS Conference. The only time they covered the spread was as underdogs against the USF Bulls on National TV and this is a completely different situation. The other games included home losses to Maryland and Cincinnati as home favorites as well as a four point home win over Pittsburgh as -12 point favorites. I just don't see them winning this big. The Scarlet Knights come into this game off a paltry 7 point effort against Fresno State that saw them amass only 369.0 total yards of offense on 5.1 yards per play. North Carolina's defense is probably going to be a lot better this season than it was last season but that wasn't all that obvious in their opener against an I-AA opponent as the Tar Heels somehow allowed 27 points in that game on 391.0 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play (which is respectable). On the ground, Rutgers really struggled to replace Ray Rice as they managed a pathetic 106.0 rushing yards in that game for only 3.1 yards per carry and I expect this unit to continue to struggle as North Carolina was tough against the run in their opener and despite having one of the weakest LB corps in the ACC, should be able to stop the ground attack. The Heels allowed McNeese State to rush for 152.0 total yards on only 3.3 yards per carry. That means I wouldn't be surprised if Rutgers was looking to get an aerial attack going in this game seeing how QB Mike Teel (who will miss Rice the most because he took a load of his shoulders) completed only 51.7% of his passes in the Fresno State game for 6.7 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 2 interceptions. The Heels are not a high pressure type of defense and they are still learning which is why they allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt against McNeese State and allowed their QB to complete 56.3% of his passes. Rutgers looked like a team that could have turnover problems this season as they threw one interceptions and fumbled the ball three times in their opener and that's not good news because I think the Heels are due for some big plays defensively this season and they do have a few playmakers in their secondary. I think Rutgers is going to look a lot better in this game but they still won't do enough to score the points needed to beat North Carolina and that will probably result in their second straight loss to start the year.
My original thoughts on this game were that Rutgers would walk all over the Tar Heels and finally look good to the average bettor. Having said that, I think they miss RB Ray Rice a lot more than we all realized to begin with and there is a very good chance that this will be an off-year for the Scarlet Knights. So although I do see them winning this game and avoiding an 0-2 SU start to the season, I just don't see it as being a runaway affaire and I don't think they can win by more than a field goal against a team on the rise like North Carolina. This game means a lot more to the Tar Heels than it does to Rutgers because the Scarlet Knights have an easy non-conference schedule the rest of the season and they don't play any tough games until the month of October. North Carolina on the other hand has games coming up against Virginia Tech and Miami Florida the next two weeks so this game tonight is to pretty much avoid a 1-3 start to the season (predicting losses to VT and the U in those games although the VT game is at home). I did notice that North Carolina is 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus teams from the Big East Conference but this is their best team in years so I expect that to change. Rutgers has been one of the most consistent teams ATS wise when it comes to non-conference action going 10-2 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games but as they showed in their opener, they are just not as good as the last three or four years. Should be a great game that either goes to overtime or is won on a late field goal. Tar Heels for me.
Trend of the Game: Rutgers is 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
North Carolina 27, Rutgers 26
Friday, September 12
South Florida Bulls -3.5 (10 Units)
The Kansas Jayhawks are coming off two relatively easy walk in the park type of games and that makes you wonder if they have any idea what kind of team they are facing when they walk into Raymond James Stadium for a college football fans bowl like dream matchup. The last time Kansas lost a game was in their Big 12 finale last season against the Missouri Tigers. I can't say this team got any better in 2008 because they do have to replace their top running back as well as their top receiver from the 2007 season. I also think the team is going to take a few steps back this season as much as I want to think they will be just as much of a force this season as last, I just don't see it happening which is going to be a problem for their bettors. The Jayhawks are coming off 49-10 and 29-0 wins over Florida International and Louisiana Tech with this game being the first real test for this team. Kansas is 2-9 SU in their last 11 road opening games. This is still a very good team and they will win some big games this season. I know they went 12-1 SU last season and they do return a very healthy 15 starters on both sides of the ball but their schedule is much tougher this season than it was last season and this game tonight is as tough as it gets in college football. Kansas comes into the game averaging 34.5 points per game this season and they have done that on 461.0 total yards of offense and 6.2 yards per play. I know the South Florida defense hasnt really been tested yet this season but they have allowed 15.5 points per game and allowed only 161.5 total yards of offense per game on 2.8 yards per play in those games. This is one of the toughest defense in all of college football. On the ground is where Kansas makes their money as they average 127.0 rushing yards per game this season for 4.3 yards per carry but the loss of RB Brandon MacAnderson is a tough one and I expect these guys to have problems moving on the ground against a defense that has allowed only 67.5 rushing yards per game this season on only 2.4 yards per carry. That will force the Jayhawks to throw the ball as QB Todd Reesing has completed 67.7% of his passes this season for 6 touchdowns and 1 interception on 7.4 yards per pass attempt. The USF secondary has been freak nasty in their first two games holding opponents to a completion percentage of 44.8% and averaging only 94.0 passing yards per game on 3.2 yards per pass attempt. That should significantly slow down the Jayhawks potent attack and that should result in some Kansas turnovers allowing the Bulls to run away with this game. I think Kansas can score points in bunches but they had two road games last season where they failed to crack the 20 point mark and scored 19 points in each of those games. They were never really tested away from home in 2007 but now they walk into dark territory and I don't think they make it out of this place alive. Kansas goes down if you ask me.
The South Florida Bulls are once being called 'Darhorse National Title Contenders', a title they held for parts of last season, and that has many in Tampa buzzing about this team. Not only are they off to a 2-0 start on the season looking to sweep the board and not suffer upset losses like the one at Rutgers last season but this team has already been to war this season and that war came in their overtime win over UCF last week. That would probably be why the betting public is not very fond of taking the Bulls in this spot and I don't really blame them. Having said that, this is very tough to beat at home (even though Cincinnati did it last season) and they are 14-7 ATS in their last 21 home games as a favorite (actually those are their all-time home games). You know a lot of people assume this program is on its way down because of the way they got blownout in the Sun Bowl against the Oregon Ducks on New Year's Eve of last year but to be honest the Bulls had National Title or BCS Bowl intentions for the most part of that season and to have that taken away had these guys in terms of interest. Well this is a new season, they have already past their first test and done it in impressive fashion and I expect some big things from this team starting with tonight's game. The Bulls come into this game averaging 43.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by averaging 512.0 total yards of offense on 6.6 yards per play. Kansas is supposed to have a tough defense and I don't doubt that they do as they have allowed only 5.0 points per game this season and allowed only 203.0 total yards of offense per game on 3.8 yards per play, but they don't have me convinced that they can stop USF here. South Florida has been lethal on the ground so far this season amassing 229.0 rushing yards
This is another one of those where at the naked eye I thought the Kansas Jayhawks looked like easy money. The more I sat down about this and the more I thought about it, I remember South Florida being one hell of a force at home the last few seasons against ranked opponents and against non-conference opponents. The Bulls are actually 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games and like I said before they are one of the toughest programs to beat at home with the standards they have set for themselves. Kansas on the other hand was an ATS wrecking machine which has me thinking that they are due for an off-year on the ATS front. The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference home games. Having said that, this game is probably going to go back and forth for quite some time but the home field advantage and the toughness of South Florida is going to be too much for the Jayhawks to handle and I don't see them keeping up offensively. RB Brandon McAnderson and WR Marcus Henry were worth 26 touchdowns (running and passing) last season and I still think it's going to take a lot of time to replace them. Since 2005, ranked opponents have not enjoyed visiting South Florida. Just ask Louisville who lost 45-14 here in 2005 as a #9 and -20 point favorite. Or you can ask the #24 Rutgers Scarlet Knights who in 2006 barely escaped this place with a 22-20 win as -4 point favorites. Or the #5 ranked Mountaineers last season who lost 21-13 as -7 point favorites. For once South Florida gets the ATS respect they deserve and I don't think they will disappoint.
Trend of the Game: South Florida is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games
South Florida 29, Kansas 16
Saturday, September 13
Iowa Hawkeyes -13.5 (5 Units)
The Iowa State Hawkeyes are probably going to be a lot more competitive this season than they have been in the past and that should almost guarantee them good ATS results because oddsmakers still have them pegged as bottom feeders in the Big 12 Conference. Having said that, they have almost already reached their win total for 2007 where they finished 3-9 SU and have now failed to register a winning season two years in a row. The faithful of Ames are not losing their minds just yet because they were promised bigger and better things this season which for the time being, looks to be true. The Cyclones come into this game with a 2-0 SU record (1-0 ATS in those games) as they beat both South Dakota State and Kent State at home. Playing on the road is a completely different animal as many of you know and the Cyclones are only 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games. I know recent meetings between these teams have been close but if you look at the big picture of things here, only 3 of the last 14 meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less so someone is going to win this game big. Iowa State is 0-11 SU in their last 11 road games and have won only 5 of their 30 road games since the 2002 season. There is some promise with so many guys back from last season but I don't think their Sophomore QB Austen Arnaud has any clue what he is in for when he walks into Kinnick Stadium. The Cyclones come into this game averaging 46.0 points per game this season which is a dramatic change from the 18.2 and 18.8 points per game they averaged the last two seasons respectively. Having said that, most of those points have been created by the defense as the offense averages only 381.0 total yards of offense per game on 6.0 yards per play. Iowa's defense has not really been tested as of yet but they have allowed only 3 points all season in two games on 219.0 total yards of offense and only 3.6 yards per play this season. This is not the flashiest defense in the Big 10 but they can be dominant. On the ground, Iowa State unleashed some furry on their opponents this season rushing for 194.5 yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry but don't expect them to get much done on the ground here as the Hawkeyes have allowed only 96.5 rushing yards per game on 3.1 yards per carry. Yes Iowa's defensive weakness is the run but running a lot wont be easy for Iowa State if they have to play from behind. In the air, QB Austen Arnaud faces his first real college football test as he has looked decent completing 76.9% of his passes for 10.2 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. However, Iowa's defense has allowed their opponents to complete only 47.5% of their passes this season for only 4.2 yards per pass attempt. Arnaud has yet to be intercepted but I think that streak ends today as the Iowa secondary already has 4 interceptions and they will be ready with some pressure. The Hawkeyes defense is going to be all over Arnaud forcing him into some bad throws here as they already have 7 sacks on the season and the sophomore QB has been sacked twice. Iowa State has looked very shaky when it comes to holding onto the football as they have already lost a whopping 4 fumbles this season which can't be good news against a defense looking to make plays at home. Much like seasons past it seems that Iowa State has a discipline issue, having already taken 12 penalties this season and it's the small things like that that will cost them on the ATS front in this game. I think this offense struggles bad here leading to a blowout loss.
The Iowa Hawkeyes have screwed me time after time over the last couple of seasons but I am willing to back them here as we are offered slim pickings for the early day games. Last season was the first time in who knows how many seasons that Iowa did not play in a Bowl Game and failed to make the post-season but that was to be expected and now Kirk Frentz celebrates his 10th season here with a squad he believes can win at least 8 games and return to respectable levels. If you think for one second that Iowa has forgotten about last season's 17-15 loss as huge favorites on the road against their in-state rivals from Iowa State, you are out of your mind because they have definitely not. The Hawkeyes big problem last season was their lack of offensive productions as they managed to score a Ferentz all-time low of only 18.5 points per game. With the only three games who got rush attempts in 2007 now gone (Young, Sims and Pugh combined for 323 rush attempts last season), the fresh faces are in and the youngsters have not disappointed so far. The big games start this week for Iowa as they have Pittsburgh on the road next and host Northwestern for homecoming which means a win in this game and this team will probably be 4-0 SU when they head into Michigan State and Indiana in early October for huge road games before returning home to Wisconsin. So the importance of this game is high. Iowa comes into this game already averaging 44.0 points per game and unlike Iowa State, their offense has earned it by averaging 484.5 total yards of offense per game on 7.0 yards per play in those games. The Iowa State defense has already allowed 22.5 points per game this season (way too many in my eyes considering the opponents they have faced) and in those games they have allowed 380.0 total yards of offense on 5.9 yards per play which won't cut it against a tough road opponent in a rivalry games. On the ground is where the concern was for Iowa before the season but the bell has been answered and the Hawkeyes average an impressive 243.0 rushing yards per game already on 5.7 yards per carry. RB Shonn Greene already has 239 rushing yards in two games but the good part is that he played games in 2005 and 2006 for the Hawkeyes so he knows the system. Iowa State has been horrendous against the run this season allowing a crazy 211.5 rushing yards per game and allowing a huge 6.2 yards per carry in those games. I don't know that Iowa has to do much more than pound the ball into the ground but in the air they will probably use two QB's. Both Jake Christensen and Ricky Stanzi should see some time on the field but it is Stanzi who impressed the most this season and Stanzi who is averaging 7.4 yards per carry on 7 run attempts. As a unit, the Hawkeyes have completed 64.8% of their passes this season for 8.9 yards per pass attempt while being sacked only one time and throwing two interceptions (Stanzi has 3 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions so you can expect him to play). On the flip side of things Iowa State's defense has allowed opposing teams to complete 55.7% of their passes (both weak opponents) and those passes have been for 5.5 yards per pass attempt which is not bad. However, the fact that Iowa plans on running these guys into the ground can't be good because it won't be tough for the QB's to find guys like DJK or TE Brandon Myers on deep routes. Both combined for 7 receiving TD's last season and they have already combined for 3 touchdown passes this season. The offensive line is going to be a force this season for this Iowa team and with the running abilities in this game and the time they will have to make plays downfield, I expect this game to get out of hand in a hurry. Iowa State has somehow recovered 5 fumbles in the two games they have played (resulting in all those points they have scored) but Iowa is going to be very disciplined under Ferentz this season and they have already shown signs of that by averaging only 3.0 penalties per game and losing only one fumble total on the year. There are too many factors pointing to a huge Iowa revenge win this game and I will follow those factors and take them for a trip to my local off-shore bank.
If you look at past matchups in this rivalry, it's quite easy to see that all the games are generally close and large spreads like this one are a waste of time. Having said that, those kinds of numbers are often a waste of time because every game is different and most of these players were not around the last 3-4 times Iowa State came to Iowa City for a visit. We all know the crowd is going to be wild for this game. In 2004, Iowa hosted this game as a -20.5 favorite and ended up winning only 17-10. In 2006, Iowa hosted this game as a -14 point favorite (reminds of this game) and ended up winning only 27-17. So the reason the public has not pounded the Iowa line is because many of you predict a closer game than the experts think. The Hawkeyes have not enjoyed success against Big 12 opponents going 1-4 ATS in their last five games but this is a bit different because the new blood is ready to play around here and the program is taking steps in the right direction. I have always said that Kinnick is a very tough place to play and the fact that Iowa is 36-16 ATS in their last 52 home games pretty confirms that for me. The underdog has won the last four meetings and Iowa State is 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Iowa City. Having said that, I really like this Hawkeyes team to play with fire in their game as they seek revenge for last season's embarrassing road loss. Hawkeyes huge for me.
Trend of the Game: Iowa is 36-16 ATS in their last 52 home games.
Iowa 41, Iowa State 19
South Carolina Gamecocks +7 (10 Units)
The Georgia Bulldogs come into this game with a certain level of embarrassment after losing 16-12 at home in last year's meeting with Steve Spurrier and South Carolina as -3.5 point underdogs. What's funny is that at the time last season, Georgia was not considered a force in the SEC East and just one year later they find themselves favored by a touchdown in a game that could very well decided the East when all is said and done. Last year's game marked the first time in six years that Georgia failed to score a touchdown against their rivals from Columbia and although I don't see that happening again this season, I do see this team having problems winning the game straight up, let alone winning the game by a touchdown margin. The Bulldogs are 2-0 SU to start the year with an ATS winner against Central Michigan last week but they have been a nightmare to bet on the last four seasons as road favorites going 5-7 ATS in those games and not covering more than one per season in three of those seasons. Looking back at some of Georgia's road games in 2007, they went to Alabama and won by three in overtime, they went to Tennessee and lost 35-14 as -1 point favorites, they went to Vanderbilt and won 20-17 as -7 point favorites and then they blewout Georgia Tech in their road finale. So the history for Mark Richt winning SEC road games by large margins is not good and I really don't see where the oddsmakers came up with this line. Georgia comes into this game averaging 50.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on 543.5 total yards of offense per game and a whopping 8.5 yards per play. However, seeing how they played against Georgia Southern and Central Michigan, I would say this SC defense is a bit better. As a matter of fact, the Cocks have the best LB Corps in the conference and maybe in the Nation. South Carolina has allowed 12.0 points per game this season and allowed only 181.5 total yards of offense per game on only 3.3 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Georgia comes into this game averaging a whopping 237.5 rushing yards per game on an incredible 7.0 yards per carry (Knowshon is freak nasty) but much like they did last season, South Carolina should contain the run as they have allowed only 112.0 rushing yards per game this season on 2.9 yards per carry. IF YOU CAN STOP GEORGIA FROM RUNNING THE BALL, YOU CAN BEAT THE BULLDOGS. Pretty simple coaching it seems. That should force QB Matthew Stafford to throw the ball a lot more than he has. Stafford has completed 63.3% of his passes this season for 10.0 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 1 interception. Where have the 10 interceptions from last season gone? Well here they are in this game. South Carolina has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 39.4% of their passes this season for a minuscule 4.2 yards per pass attempt so you can forget about Georgia taking this thing and running away with it. I expect a ton of pressure from both the inside and the outside on Stafford who has shown to be mistake prone in the past and South Carolina already has 4 sacks to their name this season to go along with 2 interceptions 4 forced fumbles and 3 recovered fumbles which makes them an aggressive defense that can create big plays. Georgia has shown no signs that they can stay disciplined this season having already taken 20 penalties in two games for 70.0 penalty yards per game and the Gamecocks are going to take full advantage of that. So although I think Georgia can look a bit better than they did last season, I don't see them walking into this place and coming out with an easy, as a matter of fact I see them coming out of here with a huge dent in their National Title Contender resume. Much like last season, Mark Richt will have problems getting points off this defense.
The South Carolina Gamecocks already have some bettors black listing their asses after that horrendous display at Vanderbilt last week that saw them walk into that place as -9.5 point favorites only to get shocked by the smaller underdog to the tune of 24-17. Not only does that seriously hamper this team's chances of winning the SEC East and playing in the Title game for the first time in the Spurrier era but this also means that this game right here is pretty to decide who wins the East. The hype around this game is only going to grow as the week goes along because with so many other big games scheduled for this week, it will be easy for public joe bettors to lose focus and assume that the line has been correctly established for this game. You are telling me than an SEC showdown has a line of -7 for the road team? WTF is that? Columbia has always been a tough place for opponents to play and this should be no different. The Gamecocks are only 3-6 ATS as home underdogs in Steve Spurrier's time here but having said that, do you all remember their near upset of eventual National Champions LSU here last season as +17 point underdogs? Or how about the near home win over #2 Auburn in 2006 as +13 home underdogs.This is not about offense only, this is about defense and SC has one of the best defenses in the Country which should keep them close in all their home games this season. South Carolina comes into this game averaging 25.5 points per game and they have managed to do that on 347.0 total yards of offense and 5.1 yards per play. Now just to explain once again that lack of offense won't matter if the SC defense shows up. It also has to be mentioned that SC is one of only a few BCS Conference teams that have played two lined games this season. Georgia despite winning both their games have actually allowed 19.9 points per game this season and they have also allowed 299.5 total yards of offense per game on 4.4 yards per play which gives the Cocks a chance. On the ground, South Carolina has not looked good at all which could be why their passing game has struggled. They average only 131.5 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry but RB Mike Davis has been the lone shining star and I think he can make an impact on this defense that has allowed only 80.5 rushing yards per game this season on only 2.8 yards per carry. So as much as Davis can move the chains, this entire game falls in the hands of QB Chris Smelley (who has never played a down against Georgia). The sophomore has completed 63.6% of his passes this season for a decent 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. I have a feeling we don't see Bleecher at any point of this game. The offensive line has been a huge problem for South Carolina as they have already allowed 9 sacks in two games and their QB's are under constant pressure. That has resulted in six interceptions and a lot of game changing plays. That brings to believe that against Georgia the plan will be to move the ball a lot faster. The Bulldogs have allowed their opponents to complete only 52.5% of their passes this season for 5.5 yards per pass attempt and they have managed to record four sacks and two interceptions which is not impressive considering who they have played. SEC games are usually decided by turnovers (late ones at that) and this game should be no different. This is where the Gamecocks hold the edge because not only does their defense have more aggressive tendencies but their offense has lost only 1 fumble all season and the Georgia Bulldogs defense has yet to recover a single opponent fumble this season. I talked a little bit about the difference penalties are going to make in big games like this and I wasn't joking because South Carolina is known for having discipline problems and they do average 7.5 penalties per game this season but that only comes out to 54.5 penalty yards per game which comes nowhere near what Georgia is averaging. Expect some tense moments in this game and as poorly as the SC offense will play at times, they will compensate with tough SEC defense that will make big plays, keep this game close and give this team a shot on the last drive of the game.
The problem with College Football bettors is that they invest too much time and money in past results. South Carolina is coming off a road loss to Vanderbilt, Georgia is coming off two blowout wins at home so everyone thinks Georgia is going to walk in here and kill this Cocks team just because Vanderbilt did it last week. Well it never works that way guys, cmon. The bottom line is that South Carolina was probably looking forward to this game in their loss to Vandy and history in SEC games has it that this should be a low-scoring battle in the trenches that will probably and most likely be won by a late field goal or with some overtime. It would not surprise me to see the Gamecocks keep the Bulldogs off the touchdown board for the most part of this game and regardless of how poor the QB play has been for Steve Spurrier, his defense is going to keep his team around long enough to win this thing. There is no ATS knock on the Georgia Bulldogs because they have covered the spread in five straight games going back to last season. Having said that, they are only 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games coming off a win of 20 or more points. South Carolina is 5-1 ATS at home in their last six home games versus winning road teams and they are generally a good team to bet on in September. They have failed to cover the spread in five straight SEC games but this about to change for the good. SC keeps it close and wins on a last second field goal.
Trend of the Game: Georgia is 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games that follow a win of 20+ points.
South Carolina 23, Georgia 22
Ohio State Buckeyes +10.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Ohio State Buckeyes looked aboslutely horrendous at home last week in their game against in-state Ohio University but that doesn't mean they didn't have their eyes on this game ahead of time. Just about everyone has already written the Buckeyes off in this battle of the college football titans and I think that's a big mistake. What you have to understand is that the Buckeyes have always been underestimated against teams from the PAC-10 Conference and that has caused nightmares for the average joe bettor who sees teams like USC as runaway winners in games like this. Well the Buckeyes will never be a pushover team as long as Jim Tressel is around. This is only the second time in the last four seasons that the Buckeyes have been the underdog in a road game and the oddsmakers have slapped them with a +10.5? WOW! The last time the experts in Vegas doubted these guys was in 2006 when they paid a nice little visit to Texas as +2 point underdogs only to shut everyone up and win that game 24-7. I know some of you may think i'm stupid because of the way this team has played this season but don't be surprised if Ohio State wins this game and wins this game big. The big concern on everyones minds is the status of outstanding RB Beanie Wells and it has now been confirmed that Wells is doubtful for this game (although he was going to play at first). The Buckeyes come into this game averaging a decent 34.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on 383.5 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play. Those kinds of numbers probably won't get it done against USC. In their lone game of the season the Trojans allowed only 7 points and they allowed 187.0 total yards of offense against Virginia on 3.3 yards per play. Having said that, Ohio State's offense is notches better than the Cavaliers offense. On the ground, Beanie Wells is back and he leads a backfield that averages a whopping 206.5 rushing yards per game on a very decent 5.0 yards per carry (that was without him for most of the time). The Trojans have not really been tested on the ground yet this season which is why they have allowed only 32 rushing yards all year for only 1.5 yards per carry. I think Wells, should he play, will be used in both the backfield and on off-setting screens and that should move the chains on quite a few occasions. In the air, QB Todd Boeckman has completed 66.7% of his passes for a very conservative 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. The offensive line has been a bit of a concern in terms of QB protection as Boeckman has been sacked four times and USC has some size and toughness up front but there is nothing Jim Tressel can't fix and I think the protection will be at its best in this game. USC has allowed the Virginia QB to complete 51.4% of his passes for 4.4 yards per pass attempt. They also had 2 sacks and 1 interceptions but I don't know that they are as aggressive as they were in 2007. Ohio State is not a team that is going to take stupid penalties or make mental mistakes as they average only 3.5 penalties per game for only 26.5 penalty yards per game. In a game like this discipline is very important and I think bunch has what it takes to get it done. They won't turn the ball over much and they will not make the kinds of mistakes that lose games. I really like the matchup on the ground because it should open things up for Boeckman to go deep a few times and take some risks against this plain looking defense. I don't know what Tressel has planned for this week but the one thing I do know is that he hasn't shown any of it yet this season and yet the Buckeyes have managed to win both their games whether they looked good or not. This is the biggest game since that visit to Texas in 2006 and the Buckeyes won't disappoint.
The Southern California Trojans are only into the second game of their young season and yet this is the biggest game they will probably play all season. I think it's very hard to judge this team based on what they have done so far because Virginia is set to be one of the worst teams in the ACC this season and the Trojans 52-7 blowout win on the road doesn't really mean much right now. The ACC and the Big East are two conferences with aboslutely no worth right now so we start on the drawing board with this game. What you have to ask yourself is if this game was being played on Week 1 of the season would the line be the same? I highly doubt it and I think it's a big mistake to paint a line so high. Yes the Trojans did look great in their opener and yes they do have one of the best teams in college football but so does Ohio State. I am a huge fan of Pete Caroll and the things he has done for this program which means I will be betting on the Trojans more often than not this season (I was on the Week 1) because I think they will make it to the BCS Championship Game. However I do not believe they are 10.5 points better than the Buckeyes which is why I am fading them here. WR Vidal Hazelton who caught 5 passes against Virginia and who was the #3 receiver on this team last season is out for this game and that could favor the Buckeyes in terms of secondary matchups because someone has to take his spot. Souther California comes into this game as the #1 team in the Nation and they managed to score 52 points in their opening game on a whopping 555.0 total yards of offense and 7.2 yards per play which means they have some explosive weapons to work with. Ohio State however has one of the toughest defenses in the Nation (the last time I said that LSU made them look stupid so I approach with caution this time around) and they have allowed only 7.0 points per game this season on 164.0 total yards per game and only 3.2 yards per play. I know their opponents were only Youngstown State and Ohio University but the Buckeyes looked sharp at most times. On the ground, USC has a plethora of capable backs who can hurt you both in the air and on the grass as they had 215 rushing yards in their season opener for 5.4 yards per carry. However, running on the Buckeyes is not all that easy as they have allowed only 67.0 rushing yards per game this season on 2.6 yards per carry in those games. The passing game is where this game will be won or lost. This is the first primetime matchup for QB Mark Sanchez and we are about to see what this kid is made of. Sanchez completed 74.3% of his passes in the opener for 9.7 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown passes and 1 interceptions. We all know Ohio State is going to come after him as hard as they can in this one and although they only have 3 sacks total on the season, I think they have enough size and enough guidance to penetrate the big USC front line and get some leverage to force mistakes. Their defense has allowed opponents to complete only 46.2% of their passes this season for only 3.7 yards per carry and with one of the top LB crops in the Country there is no reason for these guys not to be able to come up with some big plays in this game. They have already intercepted 4 passes this season and have recovered 2 fumbles and as I mentioned before if you are going to make some noise in the National Title picture games, you need to force turnovers and you need to have playmakers on both sides of the ball. Sanchez was sharp in his season opener but the team did take 7 penalties in that game for 68 penalty yards and if they continue to lack discipline in this game, those few penalties could cost them against a Jim Tressell led team. The Trojans have been known to win big games at home but again these two teams are too close in talent and these two teams are both hungry for a National Title. In no way shape or form will this game be a runaway for either team. Everyone thought USC shoulda had Ohio State's spot in that BCS Title game last season so this is a great chance for the Trojans to show their worth. They might do it here but it won't be by more than a few points.
I have to kick this off by mentioning that SINCE 1991 OHIO STATE IS 11-2 SU AGAINST TEAMS FROM THE PAC-10 CONFERENCE and this game should be no different. The National Title is pretty much on the line here since the losing team will have the burden of explaining to the BCS why they lost their biggest game of the year and how that entitles them a spot in holy grail of college football games. I talked about this earlier and it needs to be explained again. As garbage as the Buckeyes looked against Ohio last week, you have to understand that all they were hearing about was this game against USC and most of the players just went through the motions to get out of that game alive and begin preparing for the matchup of the year. Ohio State will be ready, mark my words right now. Both teams have had success against the others Conference over the last few years which makes this an even more intriguing matchup. Ohio State is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games versus teams from the PAC 10 and it has become quite obvious that Jim Tressel knows how to beat these teams from out West. The Buckeyes are also 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games versus teams with a winning home record and they are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games overall. USC is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games versus teams from the Big 10 Conference but Ohio State is a different animal. They are also outstanding in non-conference action compared to Ohio State but I really like the Buckeyes to keep this game close and possibly steal this one late. I know USC is due and it is probably their turn to play in the BCS Title Game but Ohio State still has business to run in the title game after losing two in a row. Buckeyes are the play here.
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games versus teams with a winning home record.
Ohio State 28, Southern California 21
Wisconsin Badgers -2 (10 Units)
The Wisconsin Badgers are my second Big 10 road wager of the week and it somehow turns out that both games are being played in California. Don't get me wrong, I don't bet on the Big 10 teams all that often but there is no way I could resist both of these wagers and something tells me I will not be disappointed. The Badgers come into this game off some impressive wins at home aganist weaker opponents and although this is going to be one of the toughest non-conference games this team has played in years, I really believed they can get the job done. Wisconsin comes into this game with hopes of facing both Ohio State and Penn State with an undefeated record and in order to do that they need to win this game. What I really like about the Badgers here is that they have an entire week off to prepare for Michiagn once this game is all said and done so the only thing on their minds right now is winning this game and proving to the world that Fresno State is not going to upset every game they play as the underdog. The Badgers are a perfect 7-0 SU since 2002 when playing on the road against a non-conference opponent at the opponents home or on a neutral site and this game should be no different. Bret Bielema is now in his third season as the head coach of this program and there is no way I see him losing this game to a team from the WAC Conference. In his first season here the team was 3-0 ATS in away games as the favorite but they went 0-2 ATS in that category last season. Wisconsin comes into this game averaging 44.5 points per game this season and there is no doubt this offense can make some noise. They also average 483.0 total yards per game and have done so by averaging 6.9 yards per play in those games. I think this offense is going to be a handful for the Fresno State defense who have only faced a hapless Rutgers offense. The Bulldogs allowed 7 points in that game and they allowed 369.0 total yards of offense on 5.1 yards per play. On the ground is where Wisconsin is so tough because RB PJ Hill is one of the best in the Nation and he helps this team eat clock and control tempo of the game. The Badgers are averaging 281.0 rushing yards per game this season on 5.5 yards per carry as Hill already has 267 rushing yards on the season with 4 touchdowns. That should be enough to bulldoze the Fresno State defense that allowed 106 rushing yards on 3.1 yards per carry against a pedestrian and Ray Rice-less Rutgers rushing attack. In the air, QB Allan Evridge has adapted quite well to his new system and that showed in his first two games as he completed 66.7% of his passes for 10.6 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 1 interception. Fresno State's pass defense was impressive against a useless Mike Teel last week as they allowed him to complete only 51.3% of his passes for 6.7 yards per pass attempt. This defense also had two interceptions in that game and Evridge really needs to be careful he doesn't get too comfortable in his sets. What I really like here however is that Hill and the running game should really soften up this experienced Fresno State defense, enough to the point where the Badgers can take some shots downfield and convert their big play opportunities. Wisconsin has not fumbled the ball 6 times this season (losing three of those along the way) so that can be a concern but Bielema said in his press conference that the issue had been addressed heading into this game and we have to trust him on this one. The Bulldogs failed to recover a single fumble in their season opening game and the only way they are going to beat the Badgers is if they can force into making some mental mistakes and force them into unorthodox plays. Wisconsin is averaging only 4.5 penalties per game this season and with that kind of discpline I like their chances to score some points when this game matters most. The Badgers are going to badger the Bulldogs on the ground and stick a few nails in the Fresno State coffin with some deep bombs to Travis Beckum for six and the extra. I really like Wisconsin here.
The Fresno State Bulldogs are my pick to make the BCS if any of the non-BCS Conference teams ever make it that far this season. This is a very well coached team that Pat Hill knows how to use and they are going to be jacked up for this game knowing that this would almost guarantee to have the BCS buzzing about putting these guys in a post-New Years Bowl Game (pending they win all the games they should win the rest of the seasno). I would call this Fresno State's Super Bowl had it not been for a road game they have coming up against UCLA in a few weeks but nonetheless this game is huge for this team. I would normally be on them in this spot but they have not hosted a ranked team since a 31-24 loss to Oregon in 2006 as +3. So as much as this team gets hyped up by the media and as good as I think they are, I will only be betting on this team when they go on the road because oddsmakers don't give them much of a chance away from home and its the complete opposite when it comes to home games. The oddsmakers tend to give them a bit too much value. What should discourage quite a few from betting on this team is the fact that they are 1-4 SU all-time versus teams from the Big Ten Conference and I don't think they match up too well with the size and the speed of the big boys of this conference. Fresno State comes into this game off a decent 24 point performance in their game against Rutgers and what made that even more impressive is the fact that they managed to get 422.0 total yards of offense in that game and did it on 6.7 yards per play. Wisconsin is not going to be as easy to get by as the Scarlet Knights were as they return a whopping 9 starters to a defense that struggled late in the season and they have allowed only 15.5 points per game this season on 305.5 total yards of offense in those games for 5.5 yards per play. That sounds like a lot but the Badgers scored so much they rarely had the ball in those games. On the ground, Fresno State dominated big time against Rutgers rushing for 206 yards on 5.3 yards per carry which is why they had so much success moving the ball. Having said that, Wisconsin is almost impossible to run against as they have allowed only 72.5 rushing yards per game this season and allowed only 2.8 yards per carry in those games. With the newfound struggled in the running attack I don't think Fresno State can be as effective throwing the ball even though QB Tom Brandstater didn't look all that good in the game against Rutgers. He completed only 45.7% of his passes in that game for 9.0 yards per pass attempt and no touchdowns or interceptions. If you want to say there is a weakness in the Wisconsin defense it would be their pass defense as they allow their opponents this season to complete 55.4% of their passes for 5.6 yards per pass attempt but as I mentioned before the Bulldogs rely too much on their running game to get things going and with no running game I don't think Brandstater can handle all the pressure. The Badgers have some very aggressive DB's who have already combined to grab 3 interceptions on the season despite taking risks in their sets. Fresno State beat Rutgers because they stayed away from turnovers but I don't think that will be the case here. The Bulldogs have some fire power on both sides of the ball but the Wisconsin defense is big and they are fast and I think they are going to come away with some huge plays in this game. Fresno State took 6 penalties in their opening game and with so much hype and with a National TV audience watching their every move (second half when the OSU-USC game is done), I think this team is going to struggle to handle the underdog role.
Damn I didn't realize this until now but I have picked three Big Ten Conference teams to win and cover the spread this week and that's a bit scary seeing the way this conference has performed so far this season. The Badgers know this game means a lot to them if they are going to continue their streak of playing Bowl Games in the New Year or better. I say that because they have a tough in-conference schedule coming up and altough they are prone for an upset playing in a different time zone against a potential BCS Bowl Game participant, I just don't see them losing this game. Not here, not now and not under these circumstances. I have always been a big fan of betting on Wisconsin when they are at their best and that has always been during the month of September where they are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in this month. The Badgers are also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games and they have more often than not followed a big win with another big win. I talked about this a bit earlier and I said it meant a lot. Fresno State does not play the same kind of football at home as they do on the road where they are almost always underdogs. As a matter of fact they are only 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games and only 3-9 ATS following more than a week off between games. I really like Pat Hill and his team but I don't see them being a match for Wisconsin. Look for the Badgers to end their 6 game ATS road losing streak.
Trend of the Game: Wisconsin is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 September games.
Wisconsin 31, Fresno State 18
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
RECAP:
North Carolina +5
South Florida -3.5
Iowa -13.5
South Carolina +7
Ohio State +10.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Wisconsin -2
:toast:
Last edited: