MistaFlava's CFB Week 2 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2017 CFB Record: 4-10 (-70.00 Units)

Back for another year of college football. I don't go crazy the first couple of weeks because it's hard to get a good feel for how some teams will perform but most plays will be 10 units which in my books is $1000. Just to gauge.

I will for the most part be providing writeups. Long writeups if well ahead of time, short writeups if only a few hours before the game.

Week 1: What a nightmare start to the season for me, looking to bounce back this week

Good luck to all this season

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Friday, September 8


Oklahoma State Cowboys -28 (10 Units)

Hard to pass this up, it really is. Scary that some 77% of public bettors are taking the Hokies to win by four touchdowns here but it's almost impossible to back South Alabama knowing they cannot stop this Cowboys offense. Oklahoma State destroyed Tulsa in their opener totaling 640 total yards of offense on an insane 10.2 yards per play. That's huge. South Alabama's defense is coming off a game where they allowed 47 points to Ole Miss on 531 whopping yards of offense and 8.3 yards per play. So again someone tell me how they can stop the Cowboys. Okie State ran the ball for 332 (9.0 yards per carry) in their opener and they completed 80.8% of their passes for 308 passing yards and 11.8 yards per pass attempt. South Alabama did have a bit of success stopping the Ole Miss run but they got torched in the air as the Rebels completed 80% of their passes for 12.3 yards per pass attempt. This is going to be an air assault for the Oklahoma State. South Alabama did manage a decent 374 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play. Okie State does allow points but their pass D is tremendous and they allowed only 4.9 yards per pass attempt in their opener. Their is no scenario where I don't see a blowout.

Both teams covered in their opener but I trust Mike Gundy a whole lot more than Joey Jones. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last five away games. The last three years they have not been good away favorites but over the last 10 years under Gundy they are 16-11-2 ATS. South Alabama have covered the spread in only 9 of their last 34 games as lined opponents and they are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 games coming off a game where they allow 450+ yards in their previous game. Again no scenario for me where this is not a blowout.

Trend of the Game: Oklahoma State is 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games versus a team with a losing record.


Oklahoma State 54, South Alabama 18





Ohio State Bobcats +3 (10 Units)

Get it right folks. This is another massive public play on a Friday night. 75% of the betting public is on the Boilermakers to win and cover this game but my words to that are NOT SO FAST! It's Frank Solich time on a Friday Night and I am not missing out on that. How in the world do you feed off that one good game for Purdue against Louisville. They emptied the tank in that one to win and came up short. Sure letdown spot here with the short week and a trip to Mizzou next week. Ohio comes into this game off the heels of a massive blowout of Hampton last week 59-0 covering the -36 point spread. They managed 420 total points on 5.8 yards per play and put up 59 points. In case you have not noticed, Purdue allowed an insane 524 total yards offense on 6.6 yards per play against Louisville. They could not stop the run game for their lives and that's a problem because Ohio has some experienced backs and rushed for 248 yards on 4.7 yards per carry in the opener. Ohio QB Quinton Maxwell can run and throw and in the opener the Bobcats only threw 19 times but they were effective. Purdue had 0 sacks and 0 interceptions despite forcing and recovering 3 fumbles. The Bobcats turning the ball over won't be an issue. On the flip side of things how about this Ohio defense? They are easily the #1 defense in the MAC again and allowed only 108 yards and 1.9 yards per play against Hampton. Their opponent managed only 1.5 yards per carry on 32 carries which is a problem for Purdue who managed only 2.4 yards per carry against Louisville. They are up against the #1 DL in the MAC tonight. Pressure on the QB's was also an issue in their opener as they were sacked 4 times and Ohio has a few sack machines (3 in the opener). Close game, possibly OT.

Frank Solich is always up for non-conference games. His Bobcats are 27-17-1 (19-7 ATS in their last 26) ATS the last 10 years against non-conference opponents and they have wins over Penn State (2012) and Kansas (2016) in the last few seasons. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus Big Ten opponents and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 Friday Night Games. Like I said, Solich loves the Friday Night Lights. Purdue, I can't help but think, are beatup after the Louisville game. This is a team that is 7-15 ATS in their last 24 games versus MAC Conference opponents and only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. They are brutal at home. Can Jeff Brohm change that? Not sure. Maybe over time yes but this is not a good spot for Purdue. I am calling for the upset and the Boilermakers to shock everyone and not look as good as they did last week.

Trend of the Game: Ohio is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 Friday Night games.


Ohio 27, Purdue 25




​more to come...

 

[indiana]

Mr./Flava........turn around week..........BOL with all your action this weekend buddy........on Okl. St. with you.........indy

 

[3pointdog]

Good luck friend. Cash them both

 

[Biz]

Great write ups as usual. GL tonight.

 

[MistaFlava]

Hmmm...kind of overthought the Purdue game. Really thought it was some kind of trap because the line made no sense but looking at the stats, Ohio was competitive but the turnovers in the end killed them. They had equal time of possession, they had almost equal first downs but losing the ball doesn't work against an offense like Purdue. Ah well. Saturday picks posted soon.

0-1 (-1.00 Units) this week

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Saturday, September 9


Buffalo Bulls +15.5 (10 Units)

What an interesting line. I am going with an "off the radar" game to kick things off this College Football Saturday. These two played in a thriller last season that went to Overtime with the Black Knights coming out on top 23-20. They also played in a thriller back in 2014 in West Point. A lot has changed since that day. Army made it to a Bowl Game in 2016 while Buffalo is coming off a horrendous 2-10 season. Kind of hard not be impressed with Buffalo's performance in Minnesota last week. As a +22.5 underdog they went to Gopher land and played really well losing only 14-7 in an impressive showing. This could have something to do with 8 of their defensive starters returning this season and that includes their top 6 tacklers. Most impressive for me in their opener was their ability to stop the run. Minnesota ran a crazy 59 times on the Bulls and managed to average only 3.3 yards per carry and rushed for only 169 yards. In their opener, Army ran the ball 47 times for 513 rushing yards and 10.9 yards per carry against Fordham but again this Buffalo defense is now run tested and run proven. In that same game Army threw the ball a whopping 2 times and completed 0 passes. Buffalo did struggle offensively in their opener but expect a much better showing in this game. Despite playing Fordham, Army's defense (who lost 3 of 4 top tacklers from 2016) allowed 318 total yards on 4.4 yards per play and Fordham completed 68.3% of their passes for 240 passing yards and 5.9 yards per pass attempt. Buffalo will make some plays in this one.

Army is looking at Ohio State next week. As much as you think they are not, believe me they are so this could be the ripe place to catch them off guard. There are no huge ATS positives for the Bulls but I can tell you that Army is 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games versus MAC Conference opponents and for whatever reason they don't play well against teams with a losing record covering the spread in only 6 of their last 19. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up win and I am calling for Buffalo to keep this close, have success stopping the run to a certain degree and scoring enough points to cover this spread. Possible upset here in another thriller.

Trend of the Game: Army is 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win.




​more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Iowa State Cyclones +3 (10 Units)

Are they ready to finally climb this hill and beat the Hawkeyes at home? I mean the series has been close with 4 of the last 6 meetings decided by 6 points or less but Iowa State have lost the last two home games against Iowa by 6 (2013) and by 14 (2015). This is going to be Head Coach Matt Campbell's first shot at home against the Hawkeyes and it could be a good one. This is supposed to be somewhat of a down year for Iowa with some losses on both sides of the ball but they didn't show it in their opener going against the public and beating Wyoming and the high NFL draft kid 24-3. But that was at home. How about Iowa State at home in Matt Campbell's first year? Wasn't looking good after a 25-20 loss to Northern Iowa as a -9 point favorite but they turned the tide after that beating San Jose State 44-10 as a -7 point favorite, they lost to #13 Baylor 45-42 as a +17 point dog, they lost to Kansas State by 5 as a +6 point underdog, they lost by only 10 to #12 Oklahoma as a +20 point underdog, they dropped 66 points in a 66-10 win over Texas Tech as a +4 point underdog and then they kind of screwed up against West Virginia to end the year. Nonetheless, the offense came around late last year and they did the same in the opener this year with 42 points against Northern Iowa winning by 18 and covering the -10 point spread. This is supposed to be their best offense in year with all their top players returning. QB Jacob Park was very good (QB Rating of 151) and he was very well protected with 0 sacks. Iowa had problems protecting their QB as they allowed 2 sacks and turned the ball over 4 times total. Iowa State's defense had 2 sacks and 3 interceptions in their opener and they are going to make some plays (5 of top 6 top tacklers are back from last season).

Like I said I really like Matt Campbell to lead his guys to a big win in this one. The Cyclones don't have a good record to show for his first season but they were 4-1 ATS as home underdog in 2016 and put up some impressive performances. Now they faced unranked Iowa, at home, in Campbell's second year in a series that has always traditionally been close. Kirk Ferentz teams have always been good on the road but in this series they have covered only 6 of the last 19. Iowa State is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games, they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 under Matt Campbell and this is a team that is going to come to play in this one. I smell an upset!

Trend of the Game: Iowa State is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.


Iowa State 28, Iowa 25





more to come...

 

[Enfuego]

I've always wondered why you put in both words "writeup" and "analysis" haha.

A writeup is an analysis and an analysis is a writeup right?

Have a profitable weekend.

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



TCU Horned Frogs -3 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE AFTERNOON***

Such a juicy line because this is a 100% revenge game for the Horned Frogs having lost to Arkansas in 2OT last year, on their home field and early in the year. The D never got over allowing that many points as a -7 point favorite but the good thing about that is that 7 returning starters on defense for TCU. They also return 10 starters on offense so expect more fireworks. Look at Gary Patterson's record away from home the last 10 years or so. 6-0 in 2009, 5-0 in 2010, 4-1 in 2011, 5-1 in 2012, 4-1 in 2014, 4-2 in 2015 and 4-1 in 2016. I mean what does this tell you? Road games are huge for Patterson. TCU looked very good in their opener blowing out Jackson State 63-0. Arkansas is coming off a 49-7 win over Florida A&M in their opener but they failed to cover the spread there. Let's analyze the two offenses. TCU totaled 542 yards of offense on 8.2 yards per play. Arkansas managed 415 total yards of offense on 6.2 yards per play. The dual threat of the Frods offense is real. They threw for 300 yards on 10.0 yards per pass attempt in the opener while allowing 0 sacks. They also ran for 242 yards on 6.7 yards per carry. Last year Arkansas had 9 returning starters on D and still couldn't stop the run allowing 205 rushing yards per game on 5.9 yards per carry. That's brutal. The TCU defense had 5 sacks, 1 fumble recovery and 1 interception in their opener and they are going to make some big plays here.

As mentioned above, Gary Patterson is a huge "road" guy and puts a ton of emphasis on winning road games if the team wants any kind of respect and success on the year. To back that up, TCU us 4-1 ATS in their last five road games versus a team with a winning record on the season. Let's get to Arkansas and their recent spread stats. The Razorbacks are 0-6 ATS in their last six coming off a straight up win. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last four games coming off a win of 20+ points. In their last 10 non-conference games they have covered the spread in only 3 of them. Again this is a revenge spot for the Frogs and I think they steamroll Arkansas who have at least 2 home losses in each of their last five seasons.

Trend of the Game: Arkansas is 0-6 ATS in their last six games coming off a straight up win


TCU 44, Arkansas 28





Massachusetts Minutemen +4 (10 Units)

I don't typically bet on 2-10 (in 2016) teams in any way shape or form but I saw some fire in this team when they played Hawaii and after playing two games where they probably should have won, they now face a familiar opponent and will no doubt be up for the task. In last year's game at Old Dominion, UMASS was close. It was only 22-16 late in the third quarter before a complete self implosion saw them go down and lose 36-16 as a +8 point road dog. Nonetheless we are talking about a 2-10 UMass team versus a 10-3 Old Dominion team and UMass was competitive. It's also a huge advantage that they have 2 games under their belt to ODU's 1 game. In those games they have averaged 31.5 points per game and I think they can score some points on this Monarchs D. The issue with UMass in their first two games was their inability to stop the run allowing 216.5 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry but Old Dominion ran for only 98 yards in their opener on 3.2 yards per carry. The Monarchs offense had 3 turnovers against Albany (31-17 win but failed to cover spread). UMass has also had issues running the ball in their first two games but their passing game has been solid averaging 330 passing yards per game and 8.4 yards per pass attempt. That should be enough to keep up with Monarchs.

Okay so over the last few years I've been on Old Dominion quite a few times against losing teams. They almost always win and Bobby Wilder has done a great job but his coaching record away from home is only 9-14 SU (as opposed to say Patterson at TCU who prides himself on winning on the road). I'll be backing this team but not this early in the season (2-8 ATS in their last 10 September games). Old Dominion is also a horrendous 0-8 ATS in their last eight games played on Field Turf and guess what...McGuirk Alumni Stadium has Field Turf! The Monarchs are also 2-10 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games and have North Carolina and Virginia Tech to look forward to. UMass go on the road after this at Temple and Tennessee so this is a must win. They have a winning ATS record in 2 of Whipple's 3 seasons coaching the team and I think they finally pull out a win here.

Trend of the Game: Old Dominion is 0-8 ATS in their last eight games played on Field Turf


Massachusetts 28, Old Dominion 27





Texas Longhorns -24.5 (10 Units)

Call me a sucker for coming back to the mouth that bit me hard last week but this is your typical fool me once, fool me twice, fool me three times type of deal. Tom Herman's debut was a complete disaster in their 51-41 home loss to Maryland as favorites of -19 points but I have to lean on Texas to have a huge bounce back game. The D is a lot better than the 482 total yards of offense they allowed last week for 8.3 yards per play and there is no way San Jose State comes into this game and runs for the 263 yards and 6.1 yards per carry the Horns allowed the first time around. What you need to know about San Jose State is that yes they are 2-0 ATS this season but their first two games were played at home. This team is 0-13 SU their last 13 road openers losing those games by 34 points per game. A huge reason I am on this play. Through two games they are completing only 52.6% of their passes for 6.4 yards per pass attempt and they have turned the ball over 2.5 times per game (3 interceptions and 2 fumbles). I mean the Texas offense played well last week. 473 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play while completing 64.2% of their passes for 7.1 yards per pass attempt. The deep plays should be there all game against a San Jose State secondary allowing 7.5 yards per pass. RB Chris Warren is a stud but he ran the ball only 6 times in the opener (5.2 yards per carry).

The key here folks is Texas being 5-1 ATS in their last six games when they allow 40 points or more in their previous game. Last year they allowed 47 points in a big opening week win over Notre Dame but then followed that up by allowing only 7 points against UTEP the following week. With 10 returning starters on D, Todd Orlando will find a way to get these guys going today and make some big plays. San Jose State despite the two covers already this season are only 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games played in September. I hesitate a little bit when I call for a huge Texas win here but I think Tom Herman has it in him to motivate his guys no matter what Urban Meyer said this week. Horns win big.

Trend of the Game: Texas is 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing 40+ points in their previous game.


Texas 44, San Jose State 10





Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +23.5 (10 Units)

Maybe buy the extra point in this one if it makes you nervous but I'm okay with this line. The public is going to be all over QB Josh Rosen and the Bruins after their incredible comeback win over Texas A&M last Sunday but keep that in mind. UCLA was beatup pretty badly in that game although they found a way to win late. Hawaii is now playing their 3rd game of the season and they have had some decent QB play and some very solid running from their star RB Diocemy Sainte Juste who rushed for 1000+ yards last season and is already off and running with 280 yards in two games on 5.8 yards per carry. Now don't get me wrong, running against UCLA worked big time for the Aggies who had 382 rushing yards for 6.1 yards per carry and by running the ball Hawaii can eat up some time. Last year at Arizona as +24 point road dogs Hawaii rushed for 168 yards and ended up losing by 19 points in that game. In the air, QB Dru Brown has been good (QB Rating 150.5 in two games) passing for 272.5 yards per game. UCLA is going to bring pressure (6 sacks in opener) but Brown is a mobile QB and will make some plays. Through two games the Hawaii defense has 9 sacks which is impressive. Rosen struggled with pressure last week (sacked 3 times for 25 yards) and UCLA fumbled the ball 3 times in that game. The Hawaii defense has forced 5 turnovers in two games this season and are an aggressive bunch.

Not calling for a Hawaii win or upset here but they will keep this under 20 points as the Bruins continue to struggle early in the season. What's most impressive for me looking at spread stats and things like that is that Hawaii is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games versus PAC-12 Conference opponents. Wow! Like I said before, they gave Arizona a nice run for their money last year on the road covering as 24 point road dogs. They are coming off a 41 point performance last week against Western Carolina and are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games coming off a 40+ point scoring performance. UCLA comes in to this game 0-6 ATS in their last six non-conference games including last week's debacle, they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine at the Rose Bowl and 0-6 ATS in their last six coming off a win. Hawaii will surprise a little bit with their stud RB.

Trend of the Game: Hawaii is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games versus PAC 12 Conference opponents.


UCLA 38, Hawaii 21





more to come...

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava.......BOL with Sat. action.......lov TCU........indy

 

[kcody9]

Great analysis, but I have to disagree with Army looking ahead to Ohio St. I read the local paper as I live only miles from USMA and these guys are focused on winning the game at hand. I think your analysis otherwise is solid, but the only games Army looks ahead to are Air Force and Navy.

 

[gavin]

always enjoy your writeups....record not so much but its the effort that counts.. I'm with you on TCU BOL

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...




Auburn Tigers +5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***

No matter how you spin this thing this is going to be an instant classic and it's not everyday you go against Dabo Swinney and Clemson to lose at home because they have been unbeatable at Memorial Stadium for a while now. Having said that, Auburn has a chance. Clemson is 39-3 SU at home the last six seasons under Swinney but if anyone is going to beat them here this season it's Auburn and not Boston College or Wake Forest or Georgia Tech or Florida State (anymore) or The Citadel. Nope, this is the one where if they are going to lose they are going to lose. This is the best Auburn offense (and possibly the best Auburn defense) we have seen since the Cam Newton and National Championship days. A little rough in their opener failing to cover the 34.5 favorite spread but they were unreal running the ball averaging 6.6 yards per carry on 351 rushing yards. They won't run that much on Clemson who have arguably the best D-Line in the Nation but they will run enough that QB Jareet Stidham (their best QB in years) will make some plays. Having said that I was a little bit shocked that Clemson allowed 119 rushing yards in their opener and if there are issues there, Auburn will expose them. Defensively this Auburn defense is NASTY! They allowed only 17.1 points per game in 2016 and return 7 starters including 6 of top 7 tacklers. They allowed only 78 yards total in their opener for 1.8 yards per play. For all those expecting the Clemson offense to struggle last week with all the new players, this is the week to expect that. Inexperience will be killer.

I say it again, we all know this is a Field Goal game or bust now the real question is who wins the game? SEC teams are used to instant classics like this where it all comes down to who has the ball with under :20 to play and can kick the winning FG. These two teams have played 51 times over the years and NEVER has the same team won 4 straight (Clemson have won 3 in a row right now). If there is a home game they are going to lose it will be this year, with all their star offensive players gone and with no other decent opponent in sight on home turf. Auburn is going to bring it. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games versus a team with a winning record on the season. The 5 points are just too much for a field goal low scoring game. Auburn has been a decent ATS bet for a couple of years now going 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games. This is not the same Clemson team and although they probably won't lose another game all season, this is in my books their toughest match of the year. Auburn not only covers but they come into Memorial Stadium and win.

Trend of the Game: Auburn is 5-1 ATS in their last six road games versus a team with a winning record.


Auburn 20, Clemson 17





Missouri Tigers -3 (10 Units)

What an interesting concept that the betting public is on South Carolina after their very impressive win against NC State last week in Charlotte (neutral). I mean yeah the Gamecocks played well and yeah they won as pretty big underdogs against NC State but lets not get crazy in their first true road game of the season. If you like a 3 point underdog in an SEC game you better like them to win as well. South Carolina is 2-10 SU in their last 12 SEC Road games so I'm not sure they are capable of pulling this off. Missouri is the only team in the Country that is returning a 3000 yard QB, a 1000 yard RB and a 1000 yard WR which is quite impressive. Mizzou put up 72 points in in their opener and they return an incredible 10 starters on offense this season from a team that averaged 31.4 points per game in 2016. Despite all the points in their opener against NC State, South Carolina managed only 246 total yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play. Missouri had 815 total yards of offense and 10.9 yards per play in their opener. The Gamecocks secondary was a disaster against NC State allowing 70.3% of passes completed for 6.5 yards per pass attempted while the Mizzou passing game averaged 15.3 yards per pass attempt. So again not ideal for SC to go on the true road where they have been terrible and play defense against this offense. They can score points.

There are not too many stats to go over when it comes to spread history with these two teams but I will point one out that sticks out and has for quite some time. Missouri is 28-6 ATS in their last 34 games coming off a game where they allow 40+ points to an opponent. That goes back a long time and it's been a great trend to bet on. South Carolina aside from being 2-10 SU in their last 12 SEC true road games are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games overall. Too much offense, too much speed, too electric. Sure Mizzou won't put up the 70+ points they did last week but they will do enough to win this game by at least a touchdown.

Trend of the Game: Missouri is 28-6 ATS in their last 34 games coming off a game where they allow 40+ points.


Missouri 41, South Carolina 21





Oklahoma Sooners +7 (10 Units)

Lookout! I am a huge Buckeye fan for reasons I cannot discuss here (lived in Columbus for a long time) but I have always held a neutral opinion when it comes to betting on them. Yes of course I wish they could win this game by some 20+ points and in past years they would but I think Oklahoma comes into this one with a chip on their shoulder and they should keep this game close. Don't forget, Virginia Tech came into this place in 2014 and won 35-21 handing the Buckeyes their first home opener loss in forever. Put them at 37-1 SU in home openers. Last year these two teams went toe-to-toe and whatever Oklahoma had at home was not good enough and the Bucks won 45-24. After the Indiana debacle earlier last week, I fail to see how Ohio State got any better this season. They were lucky to pull away the way they did. Oklahoma is returning 16 starters from a year ago and they 15-4 SU in true road openers under Bob Stoops. That's an impressive number and I tend to love backing coaches with good road records. The defense was a problem for Oklahoma last year but they return 7 starters and will have a good unit this season. In their opener they allowed only 167 total yards on 3.5 yards per play while Ohio State struggled a bit and allowed 437 total yards of Indiana offense on 4.6 yards per play. The Sooners have one of the best OL's in the Nation and I doubt Ohio State can get any pressure on QB Baker Mayfield. The Sooners are setupt to win this game.

There is not much history between these two schools but the road team is 3-0 SU lifetime. Believe me Bob Stoops sees this game as the only path to the playoffs and this is going to be a great game. Consider this. Oklahoma is 6-0 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a winning record on the season. Sure they always seem to start slow in September for whatever reason but Stoops will have his guys ready as they have covered 6 of their last 8 road games against a team with a winning record. Don't trust the Buckeyes until this offense can play four quarters and not raise eyebrows. Ohio State comes into this game 2-6 ATS in their last eight games coming off a straight up win and like I said before I expect this game to come down the final few drives. Bucks win, Sooners cover.

Trend of the Game: Oklahoma is 6-0 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a winning record


Ohio State 31, Oklahoma 28





Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5 (10 Units)

Huge risk here because in their five home games against Power 5 Conferences last season the Irish went 1-4 SU and every single game was decided by less than a touchdown. But that's the key. That was last year, this is this year and this is one of the best Notre Dame teams we have seen in a long time and pros like Phil Steele have called for them to win 8-9 games which would double their total from last year. Both played decent opponents in their openers and not only won but covered the spread so something has to give. But how about this Notre Dame offense??? 606 total yards against Temple on 8.2 yards per play and playing at home. They rushed for a crazy 422 yards on 9.6 yards per carry and could easily have another huge day against a Georgia defensive line that allowed 136 rushing yards and 4.3 yards per carry to Appalachian State(?). In that game the Bulldogs managed 368 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play while running the ball 44 times for 5.0 yards per carry but Notre Dame's defensive line is so much better than it was last season and in the opener they allowed only 2.3 yards per carry on 85 rushing yards. They had 3 sacks and 1 fumble recovery in that game while the Georgia QB threw 2 interceptions against Appalachian State. But back to the Irish offense. Brian Kelly finally has his weapons. QB Brandon Wimbush is a dual threat QB who can give defenses fits (8.8 yards per carry in the opener for 106 rushing yards). They also have RB Josh Adams who should have another huge game in this one (161 rushing yards in the opener on 8.5 yards per carry with 2 touchdowns). This Georgia defense allowed 4.3 yards per carry. Notre Dame had 5 rushing TD's last week. Clear as water.

Last season Georgia only went to one ranked opponents home for a game. That was Ole Miss and the end result was a 45-14 loss as a +7 point underdog so WATCHOUT folks the Irish could run away with this one early. Georgia coming off that win over App State are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games coming off a straight up win. There is no consistency in how they play. Notre Dame went 1-4 ATS last season as a home favorite but 4-1 ATS in 2015 and this version of the team is A LOT BETTER than the 2015 version so expect them to return to wining ways at home as a favorite on the spread. Notre Dame is still young but they have too much fire power for Georgia and with an improved defensive line should be able to shut down the Bulldogs running game. It's also hard to run the ball effectively when you play from behind. Notre Dame for me.

Trend of the Game: Georgia is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games coming off a straight up win.


Notre Dame 44, Georgia 28





Stanford Cardinal +6 (10 Units)

Love this line. LOVE IT! Stanford is too good on both sides of the ball and have been too good when playing at the Coliseum to pass this up. Let's take a quick look at their recent visits to this place. In 2015 they came here unranked and beat #6 USC 41-31 as +9 point road underdogs. In 2013 they came into this place as the #5 ranked team and lost 20-17 as a favorite of 3 points. Close game. In 2011 Stanford won the game here 56-48 in overtime as a -7.5 point favorite and somehow covered that spread. In 2009 they came in here as +10.5 point underdogs and won 55-21. David Shaw knows what he's doing against USC and he will do it again tonight. I mean can anyone say they liked the way the Trojans played last week against Western Michigan? Stanford was in Australia almost two weeks ago pounding on Rice where they scored 62 points and managed 656 total yards of offense on 9.0 yards per play. WOW! How is this USC defense who allowed 5.0 yards per play and 31 points last week going to keep up with this? On the ground the Trojans were horrendous allowing 263 rushing yards and 5.5 yards per carry. In comes a Stanford running game who amassed 287 rushing yards against Rice for a crazy 8.0 yards per carry. This is a huge problem for the Trojans. Mind you their secondary is decent but it won't matter if the Cardinal can run the ball and keep the ball for the most part of this game. Defensively Stanford is so good. You won't beat them in the air just ask Rice (completed only 41.7% of their passes for 4.0 yards per pass attempt). Won't be any big plays against this defense and if there is it will be on the ground but they will make big plays in the Red Zone. Stanford is too disciplined (4 penalties in their opener compared to 9 for USC) and David Shaw has a 25-9 SU away record as a head coach.

Look no further than Stanford's record at the Coliseum. I cannot remember the last time they lost by more than a few points. They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in this place and 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall. They have owned USC. The underdog is also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games between these two teams. USC is 1-4 ATS in their last five September games while Stanford is 6-1 ATS in their last seven played in the back to school month and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games overall. I just don't see a scenario where Stanford and their experience and their great head coach don't win this game straight up which I am also backing for a small stake.

Trend of the Game: Stanford is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings played at the Coliseum (USC).


Stanford 34, USC 24





possibly more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Arizona State Sun Devils -3 (10 Units)

I hesitate a bit on this one because of how bad the Sun Devils defense has been over the years (allowed 30+ points per game the last two seasons) but the get a ton of guys back from injury this year and should improve a little bit. Before placing my wager I had to look at San Diego State's record as an underdog over the years under Rocky Long and it was nothing special as they are 9-8 ATS as an away underdog with him as head coach. Long's record in away games as a head coach is only 47-51 SU. I refuse to back coaches who don't have winning road records to win as underdogs away from home (some exceptions). I find it a little disturbing to be honest that Arizona State only beat New Mexico State 37-31 at home in their opener but QB Manny Wilkins was very solid and he should be able to manage this game against a San Diego State defense that allowed 17 points to UC Davis in their opener and who allowed them to complete 79.2% of their passes for 10.8 yards per pass attempt while recording only 1 sack. The Sun Devils were sacked 7 times in their opener but gone from San Diego State are Calvin Munson (4.5 sacks), Alex Barrett (7.5 sacks) and Kyle Kelley (6 sacks). That's a lot of pressure to lose on your D-Line. No more RB Donnel Pumphrey (NFL) did not seem to be a problem for SDST in their opener as they ran for 276 yards on 5.3 yards per carry. That's an issue for Sun Devils defense but they do bring a ton of pressure (6 sacks in the opener) and managed to pick off two passes to seal their win. San Diego State turned the ball over two times in their opener and took 10 penalties, all signs of losing a lot of starters (specially on defense). Arizona State only took 1 penalty for 10 yards in their opener.

This is going to go back and forth, no doubt about it but a big thing for me is that San Diego State is 3-21 SU in their true road openers and NONE of those wins came against a Power 5 conference opponent. As a head coach Todd Graham has a home record of 52-18 SU and I think he knows the important of winning this game with Texas Tech, Oregon and Stanford on deck the next three weeks before the bye. San Diego State comes into this game only 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games versus PAC 12 opponents and they have covered the spread in only 3 of their last 17 September games. Rocky Long has apparently been telling people that his team treats the non-conference schedule like the pre-season. Not sure I buy that but okay. Arizona State are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games and as mentioned before Todd Graham is a huge home field guy. The Sun Devils are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams with a winning record on the season and 5-1 ATS in their last six coming off an ATS loss. Sun Devils win at home by a touchdown in a mini shootout.

Trend of the Game: San Diego State is 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 September games (their pre-season apparently).


Arizona State 42, San Diego State 35





GOOD LUCK TO ALL THIS WEEK!



:toast:

 

[indiana]

Mr./Flava......great write ups.......BOL and enjoy the weekend........indy

 

[MistaFlava]

Week 2 Recap

Oklahoma State -28
Ohio +3
Iowa State +3
Buffalo +15.5
Texas -24.5
TCU -3 ***PLAY OF THE AFTERNOON***
Massachusetts +4
Hawaii +23.5
Missouri -3
Auburn +5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Oklahoma +7
Notre Dame -5
Stanford +6
Arizona State -3


4-2-1 ATS (+33.00 Units) this week with pending!





:toast:

 

[MistaFlava]

***Correction


Lincoln Riley not Bob Stoops. Writeup was started a while back for this game, failed to make the change before posting.

 

[dpmj]

Good to see you Mista Flava! I go back to the waver line days. GL

 

[AlistairCookie]

Had you told me Auburn would abandon the run after the 1st quarter, well sure, then I wouldn't have taken them. FCOL - this love affair that Football has with passing the ball drives me up the wall.

Absolutley fantastice write-ups MF.

 

[dpmj]

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