MistaFlava's 2009 College Football Record: 9-4 ATS (+55.00 Units)
Welcome to my 2009 College Football Season. Last year did not go all that well but I had some big wins but I also had some big unit losses and this is a good time to recover. My best season was still the 2004 season where I made huge profits and I hope I can regain that magical touch of my last year posting at Covers.com before being banned for life.
Please keep in mind that these are all my plays, my writeups, my bullshit, my common sense...whatever you wanna call what I post. Some tout sites have used my writeups in the past but it's not authorized and I post everything first obviously. Enjoy the season and GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
Week 1: 9-4 ATS (+55.00 Units)
Week 2:
Please also keep in mind that 1 Unit = $100 for all my plays unless otherwise posted. I will try to post plays in early every week but with my move out of the Country it's going to be tough the next month or so please forgive the lateness of my plays.
Also stop being so obessed with my units. I bet what I want to bet and you can all use the units as a guideline to see how much I like a play. Money is money, some of us have it, some of us don't. Who cares as long as you are making your own money right?
LET'S MAKE SOME CASH!
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Thursday, September 10
Clemson Tigers +5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE NIGHT***
The Clemson Tigers were picked by several media outlets to win the ACC Atlantic Division this season so it comes as a bit of a surprise to me that they are such big underdogs in a game that is probably going to be close for the most part. The Tigers are coming off an impressive season opening win over Middle Tennessee as -18.5 point favorites, pounding the visitors into the ground in a 37-14 romp. What a difference one year makes as we all remember Clemson's season opening 34-10 loss to Alabama in 2008 as -4 point favorites. Head Coach Dabo Swinney is finally in charge for a full season and we are about to find out what he is really made of. Despite their 7-6 record in 2008, Clemson was actually better on the road than at home and they finished 2-2 SU and ATS away from home in ACC Conference play (they beat Boston College and Virginia and lost to Wake Forest and Florida State). No matter what anyone says this Clemson team is a veteran team and they are not going to forget that home loss to this same Georgia Tech team just one year ago. Again this is a veteran squad that is returning 15 starters in total. If anyone can stop the akward Paul Johnson it has to be this defense and I really expect Kevin Steele to have his guys prepared for what is essentially their biggest game of the season. Clemson comes into this game off that 37 point performance that saw them amass 361.0 total yards of offense on 5.3 yards per play. Georgia Tech's defense is experienced but they have a lot weaknesses and that showed in their win over a I-AA school last week where they allowed 17 points on 291.0 total yards of offense and 4.1 yards per play. On the ground, the Tigers are going to be very dangerous as both RB Andre Ellington and RB Jamie Parker were outstanding (while CJ Spiller only had 4 carries after his injury). I would be worried if I was Georgia Tech because they allowed 98.0 rushing yards last week and allowed 3.0 yards per carry. Clemson ran for 202.0 yards last week on 4.3 yards per carry which only made things easier for QB Kyle Parker. The redshirt freshman was alright in his first college ball experience throwing 2 TD passes on 159 passing yards and if the running game can get going early again, he should have a lot of chances in this game against a Yellow Jackets defense that allowed Jacksonville State to complete 60.5% of their passes for 5.1 yards per pass attempt. Clemson had problems holding onto the ball last week but things can only get better for this offense. They scored a whopping 30 points in the first half of the Middle Tennessee game and I think Swinney will have these guys ready to play. Georgia Tech can do all they want on offense, the bottom line is their defense is weak, their Linebackers can't stop the run and their DL is the worst in the ACC Conference. Clemson will score some points folks.
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are off to a good start but I don't trust teams that play NL (Non-Lined) games against I-AA opponents in their first week of action because we can't get much analysis out of that. Having said that, Georgia Tech survived Jacksonville State last week in their home opener in 37-17 fashion. It was expected and I don't think it was great preparation for such a tough ACC Conference game in their second week of play. Paul Johnson is now in his second year as head coach here, he already has this team up in the TOP 10 rushing teams in the Nation and it looks like he could be well on his way to this team's first 10 win season in God knows how long. Don't get me wrong, this is a very good team, with 18 returning starters. Having said that, they key to their defense that allowed only 20.3 points per game in 2008 was Michael Johnson who had 46 tackles, 9 sacks, 7 pass breakups and 1 interception. He is now gone. However, everyone else is back and like I said before, this team is going to contend for the ACC Conference Championship but it all starts tonight and I don't like their chances with a road trip to Miami a week from tonight. Georgia Tech comes into this game off an impressive 37 points performance that saw them amass 497.0 total yards of offense on 8.0 yards per play but their opponent was a I-AA school. Enough said. Clemson has one of the best defenses in this conference and they have already seen this Paul Johnson offense (losing by 4 just a year ago). Clemson allowed only 14 points to Middle Tennessee last week, they allowed only 299.0 total yards of offense on 3.7 yards per play and I think they can slow down the Jackets enough to do some damage of their own. It comes to nobodies surprise that Georgia Tech rushed for 335.0 total yards last week on 6.7 yards per carry but they also fumbled the ball a whopping 5 times in that game and that is a huge problem for a team that lost some big games in 2008 because of turnovers. Clemson won't be as easy to run on as they allowed only 2.5 yards per carry last week and their secondary was just as solid picking off 3 passes in that game, allowing Middle Tennessee to complete only 47.7% of their passes for 4.7 yards per pass attempt. The Yellow Jackets did not do much passing last week attempting only 12 passes and completing 7 of them. Again a big mistake if you ask me. This Clemson defense is relentless and we will see that tonight. They had 3 interceptions last week, forced 7 fumbles (despite not recovering any of them), had 3 sacks and they are going to be all over this run game. Even though the Tigers secondary (one of the best in the Country) can't showcase themselves tonight, I think they will find a way to contain the Jackets, force some mistakes and hand their offense the ball.
Alright so here we go again. Two second year coaches going at it in what is the biggest ACC Conference game of this early 2009 season. Take your pick. What I know for sure is that the line by the guys in Vegas is a bit shocking and even more shocking is the amount of people taking Paul Johnson's team even though they only won by 4 last year. I mean Clemson has a ton of guys back from that game and I think this is going to be close. Don't forget that despite the 17-21 loss to Georgia Tech last year at home, Clemson was actually leading that game 17-14 with 5:00 left but QB Willy Korn got dropped, left the game, and that was that. If you look back at the history between these two teams, 10 of their last 13 meetings have been decided by 5 points or less. What sense does it make to predict a blowout here? Personally my misery betting on Clemson the last few seasons was pretty much me taking them as favorites but as underdogs the Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog and they have covered the spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Impressive. Paul Johnson was perfect ATS wise in September of last year and the Jackets looked good early season but they cannot be trusted at home as they have covered the spread in only 3 of their last 12 home games as a favorite. OUCH! Dabo Swinney is by no means a top notch coach but this is one of the most talented teams in the Conference and I think they are going to bark louder than most dogs this weekend, they will force turnovers and they will pound the ball on the ground leading them to a 2-0 start on the season.
Trend of the Game: Clemson is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
Clemson 24, Georgia Tech 19
Friday, September 11
Colorado Buffaloes -3.5 (10 Units)
The Colorado Buffaloes were completely embarrassed in their opening game of the season last week against the rival Colorado State Rams and not only is Dan Hawkins on his last straw as the head coach of this University but his son Cody will probably be swimming with the college football fishes just as fast if he doesn't get his game together in a hurry. I bet on Colorado State +10 last week and won. So listen to me when I ask you to calm down, take a breath and give the Buffaloes a second chance. The matchups were bad last week and we all knew it was way too many points for a rivalry game like that. I was one of the first to say that if Hawkins lost last week's game that he would be one more loss away from being done as head coach of the Buffaloes. Well time to show us what you are made of Dan. Colorado went 0-4 on the road last season losing at Kansas by 16, losing at Missouri by 58, losing at Texas A&M by 7 and losing at Nebraska by 9. All as underdogs. This is a big game for the program and Hawkins has a big chance to right the ship before Conference play starts on October 10. The Buffaloes have an easy home game against Wyoming next week and depending on how they do at West Virginia after their BYE week, they could hit the Texas game 3-1. Not bad at all. Colorado comes into this game off a pitiful offensive performance that saw them put only 17 points on the board off 251.0 total yards of offense and 4.0 yards per play. Well things can only get better against a horrendous Toledo defense that allowed 52 points on the road against Purdue last week and that allowed 535.0 total yards of offense on 8.0 yards per play. Expect Colorado to open things up. RB Rodney Stewart was great for Colorado in his 6 times carrying the ball and I expect him to go off for 150+ in this game against a Toledo defense that got torched for 315.0 rushing yards last week on 8.1 yards per carry. An effective running attack should help QB Cody Hawkins who completed a decent 58.5% of his 41 pass attempts last week for 222 passing yards, 1 Touchdown and 1 Interception. Wasn't his fault. Toledo's defense allowed 7.9 yards per pass attempt last week, they were absolutely torched and if Offensive Coordinator Eric Kiesau knows what he is doing, he is going to dial up big play after big play here. The Rockets have an aggressive secondary that makes plays a high risk, high reward type of game but Hawkins has seen that before in the Big 12 Conference and it won't be a problem. The Rockets have no pass rush to speak of so Hawkins can forget about the 4 times he was sacked last week and with time in the pocket, I don't doubt he is going to hook up with TE Riar Geer (6 catches last week, 14.1 yards per catch in 2008) for some big yardage plays. This is a redemption game for the Buffaloes and I don't see them blowing it.
The Toledo Rockets were supposed to be one of the most improved teams in the Country this season but they sure as heck did not look like in their season opening 21 point road loss at Purdue as a +10 point underdog and I have reason to believe that until MAC Conference play starts, this team is not going to win many games. Alright so Tim Beckman is the new head coach around here and I was very interested to see how this team would react to Tom Astutsz stepping down as head coach (after 8 years) after spending 30+ years around this team. So far, so bad. This is another team looking for redemption but with Colorado this week and Ohio State next week, the Rockets are going to enter their winnable game schedule with an 0-3 record on the year. I know Purdue has a good offense but these guys allowed 52 points and they looked very much like the defenses of 2007 and 2008 that allowed 39.2 and 31.4 points per game respectively. RB Morgan Williams who was the backbone of this offense in 2008 is still suspended and until he comes back, the Rockets are going to badly miss his 169 carries for 1053 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns and 6.0 yards per carry. Don't forget his 13 catches and 315 kick return yards. LB Daris Quinn is also still suspended (77 tackles, 4th on the team in 2008). Despite that, the Toledo offense looked pretty damn good scoring 31 points, amassing 493.0 total yards of offense on 5.4 yards per pass attempt but it will be hard to repeat that feat against a Colorado team that is going to gut check themselves tonight. I have to admit Colorado's defense was a bit shell shocked in their opener as they returned only 4 starters this year. Although I don't really expect any better than what we saw last game, I do expect the Colorado offense to make things a bit easier this week for this young defense. The Buffaloes were torched on the ground last week as Colorado State rushed the ball 44 times and really worked the trenches. Toledo won't be doing much of that as they rushed the ball only 22 times against Purdue for 70.0 rushing yards and 3.2 yards per carry. The Buffaloes can't concentrate on Toledo's air attack that despite passing for 423.0 yards last week against Purdue, QB Aaron Opelt averaged only 6.1 yards per pass attempt, threw 3 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. Opelt's career TD-INT ratio at Toledo is 30-19 (not so good) and this Colorado secondary has some big time playmakers like CB Cha'Pelle Brown (I would say the top CB in the Conference) who led the team to 2 interceptions against Colorado State. What has to be noted is that once the jitters were gone (1st half), this Buffaloes defense really stepped up last week and allowed only 3 points in the second half. I think that second half was a great building block for this week and we should see a few game changing plays from this defense even if they allow a lot of points again. Opelt is almost always good for an interception or two per game and seeing how Colorado's secondary had only 9 interceptions all year in 2008 and now they already have 2, I think they step things up a notch.
Not the most enticing Friday Night game that is for sure but an interesting one nonetheless now that both teams lost their opening games and both teams failed to cover the spread in those games. I think a very important stat to remember for this game is that Colorado always seems to play well after the Colorado State game as they are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games after playing the Rams and they have won those games by an average of 19.0 points per game. I don't want to discuss Colorado's past non-conference road games because some of them are not pretty but this is the MAC Conference we are talking about and Colorado/Dan Hawkins has something to prove. I do remember Toledo beating Kansas at home in 2006 (took two overtimes) and I also remember their win over Iowa State here in 2007 but all-in-all the Rockets are 2-4 SU lifetime versus teams from the Big 12 Conference and I don't like their chances. Looking back quite a few years, Colorado has a decent track record on Friday Nights as they have covered the spread in 11 of their last 16 games played and this team is 1-1 ATS under Dan Hawkins as a road favorite (5-2 ATS in their last 7 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points). Toledo historically has been good as home dog and they have burned me in the past but they are notorious for slow starts, covering only 4 of their last 15 games played in September and they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. As much as Toledo has improved, Dan Hawkins is throwing his entire arsenal of plays at them tonight. Too much to handle.
Trend of the Game: Colorado is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Friday games.
Colorado 34, Toledo 19
Saturday, September 12
North Carolina Tar Heels -3.5 (10 Units)
The North Carolina Tar Heels are the real deal, they are ranked #19 in the Country right now but they have to win this game to prove it and I think they get the job done. Being ranked is something this team is used to be because they played 5 games as a ranked team in 2008 going 2-3 SU in those games (with wins over Notre Dame and Georgia Tech). With an additional year of experience and a 1-0 SU start as a ranked team, the Tar Heels should be ready for their first test of 2009 and it comes at the hands of a very impressive Connecticut Huskies team. I am not worried. North Carolina showed no jitters last week in their 40-6 Non-Lined win over I-AA The Citadel. Butch Davis has done a tremendous job with this team and despite losing starting QB Cam Sexton (who wasn't even that good if you ask me), this team brings back a plethora of experienced players who all took part in the team's 31-30 loss in the Meneika Car Care Bowl in 2008. I expect the offense to finally average more than 30 points per game under Butch Davis and if they can score 30+ a game in the ACC Conference, you can expect this team to contend for the ACC Coastal Division Title. North Carolina comes into this game off that 40 point performance against The Citadel last week, a game that saw them amass 374.0 total yards of offense on 5.7 yards per play. The Huskies defense was impressive against Ohio in their opener allowing only 16 points on 247.0 total yards of offense and 4.1 yards per play. We all know how well the Heels can run the ball as they ran for 260.0 yards in their opener on a whopping 5.9 yards per carry. With such a young and inexperienced core of WR's on this team (their top 3 receivers with 17 combined receiving TD's are all gone) you would expect such a performance. QB TJ Yates is finally in charge around Chapel Hill and his 2008 season (11 touchdown passes, 4 interceptions, 1168 passing yards on 60% pass completion rate) is a good indication that it won't take time for this team to put things together. I don't mind if the Tar Heels continue to run the ball because they were unstoppable last week with RB Shaun Draughn and RB Ryan Houston and until someone can stop them, why not keep running it. The Huskies secondary allowed 6.6 yards per pass attempt last week and I think North Carolina's running attack is definitely going to open things up for Yates to throw the ball up despite his mediocre numbers last week. I think the Huskies can avoid getting torched with the deep ball in this game but their LB's and front line unit are going to struggle against the Tar Heels front line (not the best in the ACC but still). I see this more as a back and forth struggle between offenses but UNC has the edge in almost every offensive category versus Connecticut's defense and Butch will have his guys ready today.
The Connecticut Huskies were one of my wagers last week as a -3.5 at Ohio and I know a lot of people liked the Bobcats a lot in that game but for me it was all about pure talent and the Huskies are definitely one of the most underrated teams in the Big East. I see some magazines and some experts have them pegged as finishing 6th, 7th and 8th in the Big East but so far so good for this group of guys. QB Tyler Lorenzen departed after last season and so did standout and superstar RB Donald Brown. Was that a problem in the Huskies first game since the departure of their two top offensive players of the last few years? Not at all. They managed 23 points against a decent Ohio defense, on the road, in a season opening game with only 12 returning starters on both sides of the ball. Not bad at all and I was actually impressed with what I saw. Having said that, I think the line is completely off for this game because despite playing well last game, the Huskies are not on the same level as a team like North Carolina that has a full year experience of playing as a ranked team and that is going to want to blow the doors off every opponent they faced (I-A opponents that is) to prove that last year was not a fluke and that they still have a top team. The Huskies weren't all that great on offense in the opener scoring 23 points on 386 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play. I have high expectations for this North Carolina defense that has in my opinion one of the best D-Lines in the Conference. They allowed only 6 points in their opener and allowed only 153.0 total yards of offense in that game on 2.6 yards per play. I talked about offensive struggles and I think we see the Huskies struggle big time in this game. Most of Connecticut's offense came from the run game against Ohio as they rushed for 259.0 yards on 5.3 yards per carry but again North Carolina's D-Line is arguably the best in the ACC Conference and they allowed only 30.0 rushing yards in their opener on 1.5 yards per carry. QB Zach Frazer struggled completing only 45.8% of his passes for 127 passing yards, 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Horrendous performance and seeing how he will be forced to throw today, I think that is going to be a problem. The Tar Heels secondary is vicious, they are tough, they are aggressive and they had 3 interceptions in their win against The Citadel. Frazer was a terrible passer last year with his 2 touchdown, 6 interception ratio and unless the running game can get going, which it won't against this D-Line, the Huskies are going to struggle to score more than 10 points in this game.
Alright so this is the case where regardless of public numbers, you have to go with the better team. The only reason the line is so low is because the Huskies were very impressive in their opening game and the oddsmakers have taken this into account a tad too much. I have to say that a big factor for me here is that Butch Davis had this group 4-1 SU in non-conference play last year and I don't see how this team is going to regress that much from the 38-12 win over this very same Connecticut team in 2008 (even though it was at home). I bet most of you don't know that Connecticut is 4-23-2 SU in their last 29 games versus current teams from the ACC Conference and the only two times they have played North Carolina, they have lost by an average of 26.5 points. So again I mention that this North Carolina team went 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games and they are very consistent when it comes to stringing together top notch defensive performances. Connecticut's trademark is pretty much the way they play at home but the last time they had less than 14 starters returning to their team was in 2006 and they went 4-8 SU that year. What most people don't know is that Connecticut has covered the spread in only 3 of their last 12 games versus teams with a winning record and a lot of their big wins have come against mediocre teams. There is nothing mediocre about the Tar Heels.
Trend of the Game: North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
North Carolina 26, Connecticut 9
Indiana Hoosiers -1.5 (5 Units)
The Western Michigan Broncos are back for another try at winning a game on the road against a school from the Big Ten Conference and let me tell you that the last time they were in this place, they weren't too successful. The most memorable road win for this program in a long time came at the end of the 2007 season when the Broncos went to Iowa and took on the Hawkeyes as +14 point underdogs. Not only did they win that game but they won it by 9 points and they shocked the Nation with what could arguably be called the biggest win in program history. That was with 16 starters back that season. In 2006 when they only had 14 starters back, the Broncos came to Indiana as +6 point underdogs and got their asses handed to them in a 39-20 loss. Well this season the Broncos return only 10 starters which is their lowest since 2003 and like we saw in their season opening 31-7 loss to Michigan, this team is going to struggle big time against bigger and better teams. Who knows, the Broncos could sweep the remainder of their schedule after this but this team is not going on the road and beating a Big Ten Conference opponent. Western Michigan comes into this game having amassed 301.0 total yards of offense on 4.8 yards per play in their opener. Indiana is not a good defensive team and it showed in their opener versus a I-AA team but they do have some leadership back there which should make a difference. Western Michigan ran for a putrid 38.0 yards against Michigan on 1.6 yards per carry. That won't improve here because the Hoosiers have one of the best D-Lines in the Big Ten Conference. That should force QB Tim Hiller to put the ball in the air. I don't doubt the Broncos can score in this game because Hiller has a big time arm with big time experience and the Hoosiers secondary was torched last week against a I-AA school but this game is going to be about keeping up with the other teams offense and the edge is definitely with Indiana. Western Michigan was too inconsistent last week and without a decent ground game to open things up for Hiller, expect the Broncos to lose pace with the Hoosiers at some point. You also have to expect this Hoosiers defense to come up with more big plays this week than they did last week where they recorded 0 sacks, forced 0 fumbles and had 0 interceptions. Western Michigan can only pass the ball but that won't be enough to win.
The Indiana Hoosiers are probably the worst team in the Big Ten Conference and it showed last week against Eastern Kentucky (I-AA team in a Non-Lined game) as the Hoosiers struggled to a 19-13 win. Having said that, a win is a win in college football and for a team that won only 3 games in all of 2008, after going 7-6 SU in Bill Lynch's first season as head coach, this is still a great start. Going 2-0 SU to start the year would be a dream start for Lynch because they have Akron next week (another winnable game), they have Virginia in a few weeks, they have Purdue at home and they have Northwestern on their schedule again this year. With that being said, this team could be 3-0 SU heading into the game in Ann Arbor on September 26. They also have Illinois at home on Homecoming and with all those games taken into account, this team could shock everyone and be eligible for a Bowl Game come December. They have 15 returning starters, 5 of their top 6 tacklers from 2008 are also back, they have a new QB and if they can get things going on offense, they are going to have a shot at 5-6 wins. Speaking of the offense, the Hoosiers are going to need some in this game. They scored only 19 points in their opener but they did manage 399.0 total yards of offense on 6.0 yards per play in that game and missed a few opportunities to score a lot more points. Western Michigan's defense was horrendous against Michigan as they allowed 439.0 yards of total offense on 5.6 yards per play. The Hoosiers had no running attack to speak of in their win over Eastern Kentucky but I expect either RB Darius Willis or RB Demetrius McCray to have breakout performances in this game against a Western Michigan defense that allowed 242.0 rushing yards in the Michigan game on 4.8 yards per carry. Gone is QB Kellen Lewis, the dual threat star of this team the last few seasons but in comes QB Ben Chappell who in my opinion was very impressive in his debut completing 75.0% of his passes for 326 passing yards, 9.1 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 2 interceptions. He rushed for 3 TD's last season and has enough experience to lead this team. We saw in the opener that Chappell has an arm and he won't hesitate to go deep to some of his young receivers. I think the deep ball is going to be there again today as Western Michigan allowed 7.0 yards per pass attempt against the Wolverines and the Broncos come into this season having lost 5 of their top 7 tacklers as they return only 3 starters on defense. Western Michigan's secondary had 13 interceptions in 2008 and 11 of those interceptions are gone this season. Chappell is a big kid with a big arm and he is going to do some serious damage (we are talking 300+ yards) against this Broncos secondary that has virtually no experience whatsoever. Expect the Hoosiers to trade a bunch of blows and land bigger punches in this game. Despite their 1 INT against Michigan, the Broncos recorded 0 sacks and forced 0 fumbles. Indiana's offense wins this game.
Alright so this is not the most enticing matchup of all time but you have to take a Big Ten Conference team playing at home against a MAC Conference opponent. Specially when the line is so low. Western Michigan has never beaten Indiana in their four game history going 0-4 SU and I don't see it happening this year either. I can safely tell you that this year's Indiana team is going to be better than last year's and I just don't see the Hoosiers losing games to MAC Conference opponents like they did in 2008 (lost to Ball State and Central Michigan at home). They are a more experienced squad this time around and they are eager to start the season 2-0 against pretty much all odds. When MAC Conference play starts, I won't hesitate to back the Broncos as underdogs like I have done the past few season. However, Western Michigan is 0-4 ATS in their last four games, they have covered the spread in only 2 of their last 8 games played in the month of September and they have covered the spread in only 4 of their last 14 games played on grass. Indiana is definitely not a team you can say has made you money in the past but I am a big fan of spot betting and this is the only time I will back them all season...win or lose. They are 9-14 ATS under Bill Lynch but more importantly they are good when favored at home going 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. This is the time to back these guys, this should be a shootout and I am taking Indiana.
Trend of the Game: Indiana is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite.
Indiana 42, Western Michigan 32
Stanford Cardinal +3 (10 Units)
The Stanford Cardinal are going to have to rise and shine pretty damn early if they want to win this game but with all the hoopla about the start time (9:00am start time for the Cardinal), I just don't buy too much into that. How many times as a kid did you have to play some sort of tournament and the first game was at 8 or 9 in the morning? All the time and guess what, most kids had their best performances at those times. This could make sense in the pros where they don't care as much but these kids are going to be ready to win this game. Stanford is coming off a very impressive conference road win over Washington State as a -17 point favorite (they won 39-13) and this could finally be the year where they return to the Bowl Season, a place they have not been since the 2001 season. Despite winning only 5 games in 2008, the Cardinal could potentially be 5-0 heading into the Oregon State game in Corvallis and that would probably mean they are a lock for the post-season with one more win to go. That's what makes this game all that more important. This is probably the game that will decide their fate and with 17 returning starters, you know these guys want a part of the post-season. Jim Harbaugh has done a great job here and this is his 3rd year in charge. The Cardinal were very impressive in their opener scoring 39 points and amassing a whopping 481.0 total yards of offense on an even more impressive 7.4 yards per play. Wake Forest has traditionally had good defensive teams the last few years but they return only 4 starters this season and they allowed 24 points on 366.0 total yards of offense in their opener while allowing 5.9 yards per play. There is a very good chance that RB Tory Gerhart runs for 200+ yards in this game because the Cardinals rushed for 288.0 yards in their opener on 6.9 yards per carry and Wake Forest got destroyed on the ground in their opener, allowing 197 rushing yards on 5.3 yards per carry. Gerhart ran for 123 yards last game, he ran for 1176 yards last season with 15 touchdowns and was a PAC 10 All-Conference 1st Team Member. I realize it's going to take some time for freshman QB Andrew Luck to develop so expect a lot of running from this team for now and after the way they ran in their opener, who can blame them. Luck did average 8.4 yards per pass attempt and did throw a touchdown pass in his debut. If the running game continues to be successful, expect Luck to unload some bombs on Wake Forest's revamped secondary (Luck threw 5 TD passes in the spring game) as the Demon Deacons allowed Baylor to complete 64.0% of their passes for 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Luck had very good protection in his debut and Stanford was lucky enough to recover both times they fumbled the ball. Believe me this is one offense you do not want to mess with this season because there is an upgrade at every position from last season and Stanford wants to reach their first Bowl Game under Harbaugh. This game matters the most.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are not going to be anywhere as good this season as they have been in past season but I think it's going to take some time for people to realize that. How much more proof do you need other than their home opener last weekend where Baylor walked into this place and snatched a 24-21 win? Wake Forest won 8 games last season and have now won at least 8 games in each season since the 2005 season but all good things must come to an end and that time has come for this team. I don't know how this team is going to replace their top 5 tacklers on the defensive side of things because those 5 tacklers combined for almost 400 tackles in 2008, 8 interceptions, 6 sacks and more than 20 tackles for losses. So anytime these guys run into a team that is offensively inclined, they are going to struggle unless their offense can keep up. In this case I don't think the offense can keep up with Stanford and their time controlling run game. I don't know what it is with these guys because they did return 9 starters on offense and I do expect them to get better but Jim Grobe teams have never been know for their ability to put up huge numbers. This team, despite the 8 wins last season, averaged only 21.0 points per game. In their game against Baylor (Big 12 defenses suck for the most part), Wake Forest managed only 269.0 total yards of offense on 4.1 yards per play. I do expect them once again to get better against a Stanford defense that struggles to stop most teams on any given Saturday. We all know the Deacons don't have much of a running game as they managed only 126.0 rushing yards on 3.7 yards per carry in the opener and I don't expect an improvement against a Stanford defense that held their ground last week and allowed only 3.0 yards per carry. That will once again force QB Riley Skinner to put the ball up and that was quite the adventure last week. He completed 64.5% of his passes but for only 4.6 yards per pass attempt and a lot of short yardage gains. He was also sacked 3 times, threw 3 interceptions and will no doubt have his fair share of problems against today against a Stanford defense that had 3 sacks of their own against Washington State and that return all 7 of their interceptions on defense from last season. The Stanford is very vulnerable, they are not all that fast and they lack size and toughness but Skinner for some reason lacks consistency and if he is under pressure again this game, he is going to continue making mistakes like he did in the opener. I have to admit Stanford's defense must be feeling pretty good about themselves right now having allowed only 3 first half points last game and with that kind of confidence and some support from their offense, we could see another sub 30 point performance by this defense.
Trap is all I can say about this game. It looks obvious and it looks too easy to take Wake Forest because Stanford is playing such an early game on the West Coast but this rule doesn't apply for each and every football game ever played with East Coast/West Coast discrepancy. I think I remember Stanford opening their 2005 season on the East Coast against Navy with a 41-38 win as a -3 favorite in that game. Sure their defense can be atrocious at times but this year's offense is exciting and Harbaugh has built an offense that can score 40+ points on any given night really. One of the biggest reasons I like the underdog here is because of the last 9 times Wake Forest has played a home game versus a non-conference BCS team, 7 of those games have been decided by less than a touchdown and we are probably in for a thriller here. I love how Stanford finished last season with a 3-1 ATS mark because they almost beat the Ducks in Eugene, they stayed within 24 of USC and they beat Washington State by 58. That makes them 4-1 ATS in their last five games. As much as I am not a fan of betting Stanford on the road, this game is a must win for their Bowl Game situation because a loss here and the best they can really do is 5 wins this season. Wake Forest are notorious for mediocre performances in September covering the spread in only 5 of their last 16 games played in that month. You also have to know that Wake Forest has covered the spread in only 7 of their last 23 home games when favored. OUCH! Stanford is going to keep this close and probably win on a late drive.
Trend of the Game: Wake Forest is 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games as a favorite.
Stanford 28, Wake Forest 27
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3.5 (10 Units)
The Notre Dame Fighting are the real deal, a lot of people don't want to believe it but when you hear about a team discussing their darkhorse National Title chances and Charlie Weiss is their coach...I think you cannot take those words lightly. I know a lot of people are going to be split on this game because of the way both teams started their seasons but from what I have seen so far, this Irish team is relentless and their 35-0 romp of Nevada at home last weekend as a -14 point favorite not only shows that their offense is finally back where it should have been a long time ago but it also shows that they have one of the nastiest defenses in the Nation (quite possibly, I know it's only been one game) which does make them a big time contender. So now the big game. Even with their 7-6 record in 2008, Notre Dame was a lot better than they got credit for seeing how they lost a whopping 38 starts in 2008 to injuries which was 15th most in I-A football for the year. This is a very disciplined group of players that is well coached and with all the pressure on Weiss and company to win some games and make progress in the National Title contention race, I think we see this team impress week in and week out. Not only did Notre Dame put up 35 points in their opener but they did it on 510.0 total yards of offense and a whopping 8.4 yards per play. Impressive. Michigan's defense returns most of their core guys this season despite having only 5 returning starters but they are going to find it hard to contain this bunch. Notre Dame rushed for 178 yards in their opener on 4.3 yards per carry and both RB Armando Allen and RB Jonas Gray were impressive. QB Jimmy Clausen has matured into a possible Heisman Trophy candidate this season as he completed 83.3% of his passes in the Nevada game, threw 4 touchdown passes on 315 passing yards and a whopping 17.5 yards per pass attempt. This team is dangerous with the deep ball and I would like to point out that Michigan lost 5 of their 9 interceptions from last season and got somewhat torched for 6.7 yards per pass attempt against the Broncos last week. Claussen was not sacked one time, he did not throw any interceptions and Notre Dame never fumbled the ball. They exploded for 21 second quarter points that put the game away early and I expect them to be just as aggressive on offense in this game. The Irish are not going to score as many points as last week but the big plays in the air are going to be there.
The Michigan Wolverines already showed what kind of backbone they really have when several players sold out Head Coach Rich Rodrigues to the media saying that he was breaking NCAA rules by practicing them too much. So what we said would happen was it was either going to bring this team closer together and create somewhat of a monster the rest of the season or it was going to derail yet another season and Rodrigues was going to be gone by the end of the year. So far, so good. Michigan opened their season with an impressive 31-7 home win over the Western Michigan Broncos as a -14 point favorite and they looked good doing it. Almost everyone is back from last year's offense that managed 28.9 points per game (10 returning starters is a lot). However, we did see two different sides to Michigan as a home underdog last season with the first being a 27-25 home win over Wisconsin as a +2 and the other being a 35-21 home loss to Michigan State as a +4 point home underdog. The only real concern heading into the season was replacing starting QB Steven Threet who transferred out of this program at the end of last year but his replacement QB Tate Forcier looked pretty damn good in the opener and he won the starting job for now at least. The Wolverines come into this game off that 31 point performance last week that saw them go for 439.0 total yards of offense on 5.6 yards per play but I don't think that's enough to keep up with Notre Dame. The Irish defense pitched a shutout last week for the first time in years and they allowed only 307.0 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play to one of the best offenses in the Nation (well smaller conference anyways). I was not impressed with the Irish's run defense because they gave up a whopping 153.0 rushing yards to Nevada on 5.3 yards per carry. Michigan's run offense was fantastic in their opener and Notre Dame is going to have to find a way to man up. I'm not worried about the secondary because they are one of the best in the NCAA. The Irish allowed Nevada to complete only 48.1% of their passes for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt while recording 2 sacks and 2 interceptions. QB Tate Forcier was named the starter this week and believe me when I say that he has no clue what he has coming. Playing against Nevada is one thing but playing against the 12th ranked pass defense in the Nation after one week of play...for a freshman...is a completely different animal. I expect Fortier to struggle in this game and even if their running game gets going, the Wolverines will need a lot more to keep up with a determined Notre Dame team. I think Michigan struggles on offense here. I am also very concerned with the fact that Michigan took 8 penalties in their opening game which cost them 72.0 total yards on the field. It's also worth mentioning that after scoring all 31 points in the first half, the Wolverines failed to score a single point after that and the second half was as lackluster as it gets when it comes to performances. Notre Dame is too aggressive and they will own the Wolverines.
This is an epic early season battle between two programs coming off some of their worst seasons ever. Both teams have high profile coaches and both teams have high expectations this season. Only one can win this game and only one can cover this spread. We all remember that 35-17 blowout win by Notre Dame in this series last year where they scored 21 first quarter points and forced 6 turnovers. However if you are a fan of upsets you will know that the underdog has won 5 of the last 7 games in this series. On a counter note, the last three meetings have been determined by an average of 27 points per game and if you can pick the winner of this game, you can bet you are going to get that win by quite a bit. For those of you who have concerns about betting on Charlie Weiss in road games, have no fear as Notre Dame is 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a road favorite. They are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite of 0.5 to 3 points and these guys are a team that made me a fortune on the road the last couple of seasons covering 7 of their last 10 road games. Alright just to refresh your memory a little bit, Michigan sucks the big one against INDEPENDENT teams going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 and the Wolverines are only 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Despite the underdog dominating this series over the years, the Irish are usually the underdog and I can tell you that Notre Dame is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Should be a good one, Irish are too good though.
Trend of the Game: Notre Dame is 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a road favorite.
Notre Dame 24, Michigan 10
East Carolina Pirates +6.5 (5 Units)
The East Carolina Pirates kicked off their 2009 campaign with a win over Appalachian State (yes the same one that beat Michigan) but it wasn't pretty and it doesn't have the fans all that riled up. Beating a I-AA team 29-24 is nothing to get excited about but a win is a win and Skip Holtz will take it. The Pirates must have all the confidence in the world coming into this game seeing how they beat this very same West Virginia team 24-3 at home last year as a +7 underdog. You have 16 returning starters from that team back again for 2009...a group that includes leading rusher RB Norman Whitley, superstar QB Patrick Pinkney, 5 of the top 6 receivers from last year are also back and most of their defensive juggernauts (7 of top 10 tacklers) are all back as well. Holtz had these guys playing for Gold last year as they finished with a 9-5 SU record on the year, the most wins in the Holtz era for sure and despite losing the Liberty Bowl to Kentucky to finish off their season, they still have a squad that can win the Conference USA Title. Anytime you have a senior squad of players, you can trust they are not going to play like deers in the headlights against upper echelon programs like West Virginia. East Carolina comes into this game off that 29 point performance against App State, a game that saw them accumulate 320.0 total yards of offense on 5.2 yards per play. The Mountaineers defense was solid against Liberty but they still allowed 299.0 total yards of offense to a I-AA team on 5.1 yards per play. Pinkney had a horrible game against Appalachian State but I expect him to rebound big time here and I expect him to expose a West Virginia defense that allowed Liberty to complete 66.7% of their passes last week for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. The Pirates also ran App State into the ground with 189 rushing yards on 5.4 yards per carry and even though the Mountaineers are good against the run, I think RB Brandon Jackson and RB Dominique Lindsay are going to have monster years. This is a very dangerous team on the ground and Pinkney can only get better. He is very mobile, he rarely takes sacks and although he looked bad last week, he is the leader of this team and his last WVU game probably means a lot to him. The Pirates took way too many penalties in their opening game and a lot of things went wrong but now it's all business and Pinkney is going to do some big things today.
The West Virginia Mountaineers are adjusting to life after QB Pat White. I don't even remember this team without White or at least RB Steve Slaton but it is what it is and the Mountaineers won their first non-White game in 33-20 fashion over Liberty of the I-AA Division. Not good but not all that bad I guess. Now the real schedule begins and we see what this team is really made of. We also probably get a good luck at Bill Stewart in charge of this team and I strongly believe that both Stewart and Rodrigues would have and will struggle without the services of White and Slaton. No wonder Richy bolted last year. My biggest concern for this team will be scoring points against some tough defenses in the Big East Conference because not only is their fearless leader now gone, but also gone are some of the top defensive players on this team and the Mountaineers return only 12 players from last season. Having said that, West Virginia struggled big time to score points the last few years averaging only 17.0 points per game last season which followed only 18.1 points per game the year before. Are the new guys going to make that much of a difference around here? Well we got a look at the new West Virginia offense with their 33 point performance last weekend. RB Noel Devine and QB Jarrett Brown both ran the show on the ground leading the team to 195.0 rushing yards on 5.7 yards per carry. Having said that, East Carolina's defense is pretty nasty as they allowed only 21.1 points per game in 2008. They allowed only 246.0 total yards of offense to Appalchian State last week on 3.4 yards per play. They also showed that teams are not going to just run all over them this season as they shut down the middle and allowed only 102.0 rushing yards on a very impressive 2.1 yards per carry. That will force Brown to put the ball in the air a lot more than he is used to and despite doing a fantastic job passing the ball last week, I think Brown is in for a rude awakening against a Pirates defense that intercepted 20 passes in 2008. They Pirates did not allow big yardage play against App State last week holding them to 5.8 yards per pass attempt and they allowed the I-AA team to complete only 56.0% of their passes. Much like East Carolina, West Virginia took a bunch of penalties in their first game and the intensity should be no different this time around. Had it not been for 17 late points by Appalachian State last week, the Pirates would have allowed only 7 points. Their defense was lights out in the first half and they also did a great job containing the Mountaineers last year. If anything the Pirates are going to make some big plays on defense and that is going to keep this game close. This defense is very experienced and they already have a taste of victory over a Mountaineers team.
Alright so the success rate has been on and off for East Carolina when it comes to playing against West Virginia but for the most part a lot of the games have been close. I remember in 2005 the Pirates came here as +22 underdogs and they lost by only 5 points. The following year they covered the +21 at home against the Mountaineers. Then came the 48-7 blowout loss in Morgantown in 2007 but the Pirates took a huge step forward last year when they finally beat the Mountaineers 24-3. How many teams since 2001 have held West Virginia to no offensive touchdowns in a game? Just one and it was East Carolina in last year's game. Sure the Pirates are 0-12 SU lifetime in Morgantown but as long as they continue to stop the run...and they showed that they can do it last year holding Pat White to only 169 total yards, they are going to keep this close. How can you not love betting on an East Carolina team that is 6-0 ATS in their last six when playing a team that has a winning record on the season. Or how about the fact that I have made tons of cash betting on this team at this price range where they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points? All-in-all the only time to bet them is as underdogs where they have covered 20 of their last 27. Why in the world would you bet on West Virginia as a home favorite? What have they done for you other than go 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games as favorites of 3.5 to 10 points? This should be a great game but in the end you have to love the Holtz and experienced ECU team combo to repeat what they did last season and continue their big season.
Trend of the Game: West Virginia is 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
East Carolina 28, West Virginia 21
UCLA Bruins +10 (10 Units)
The UCLA Bruins are out to prove me right on my theory that Tennessee is a bit overrated right now and that they the Bruins are underrated. UCLA is coming off their worst season in God knows how long as they finished with a 4-8 SU record in 2008 but Rick Neuheisel is on the right track to make this team a lot better than they were and he proved that with an impressive home win over San Diego State last week (33-14 blowout) as -18 point home favorites. If you think for one second that Neuheisel doesn't remember his coaching debut with the Bruins last year, you're dreaming. He was a +7 point underdog in the home opener last year against this very same Tennessee team and the Bruins pulled off the impossible with a 27-24 win. Can they repeat? I don't know. Are they that many points worse than last year's team? Definitely not. The Bruins return 16 players from last year's team that averaged 29.0 points per game and I think they can match the Volunteers touchdown for touchdown, tackle for tackle. This is one of the most improved teams in the NCAA this season and even though the Vols have revenge on their minds, I have no doubts UCLA can keep this game close. The Bruins dropped 33 points on SD State last week and they did it on 359.0 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. The Vols defense was one of the best in the Nation last season and I expect the same this time around as they allowed only 83.0 total yards of offense last week for only 1.8 yards per play. Yikes. So how is UCLA going to score in this game? Well first of all RB Derrick Coleman is a beast and he is only getting better. He rushed for 291 yards last season as a freshman with 2 touchdowns and 5.4 yards per carry. In the game against SD State, Coleman managed 17.3 yards per carry on 4 carries with one big time touchdown run. As well as this defense played against a useless WKU team last week, they are not even close to being that good on the D-Line and at the Linebacker position and Coleman is going to work away in the trenches and open things up in the air. QB Kevin Prince made a triumphant return to football in his UCLA debut last week completing 62.1% of his passes for 176 passing yards, 6.1 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 2 interceptions. This is a very aggressive Tennessee defense that takes a lot of risks but I think the Bruins have enough experience on the offensive line and at the receiver positions that they can make some plays in this game. WR Taylor Embree and WR Terrence Austin are studs and as long as they can spread the field out and as long as Coleman can have success running the ball and as long as they stay away from SS Eric Berry, the Bruins will score some points and keep this game competitive.
The Tennessee Volunteers began the Lane Kiffin experiment with a brain jolting 63-7 win of Western Kentucky as -31 points home favorites but I don't know what to make of that game because the Hilltoppers are new to I-A football and they have sucked the last few seasons. This game is a lot more intense against a BCS Conference team and looking back at their recent non-conference home games of seasons past, I am not too impressed with what I see from Tennessee. In 2008 they hosted Northern Illinois as a -16 point favorite and won 13-9. They also hosted Wyoming later on in the year as a -27 and lost the game 13-7. Not a good sign for things to come if you ask me. I know the offense looked great in their opening game but you have to keep in mind that this team lost their top two rushers from the last who knows how many years as RB Arian Foster (the second leading all-time rusher at Tennessee) and RB Lennon Creer are both gone. The most experienced RB on this team is Montario Hardesty who averaged only 3.6 yards per carry last year. The Vols are also missing their top tackler from 2008, their top pass rusher from 2008 and several other key defensive members from last year's team. Alright so the Vols come into this game off a 63 point performance against WKU where just about everything went right but they are facing a very different defense this time around. Despite pounding away for 657.0 total yards of offense and 8.6 yards per play against the Hilltoppers, Tennessee knows they have it a lot harder tonight against a UCLA defense that allowed only 277.0 total yards of offense last week against SD State on only 4.4 yards per play. They have one of the best D-Lines in the PAC 10 Conference and they have some tough linebackers which means Tennessee will probably have a harder time running the ball effectively against a defense that allowed only 39.0 rushing yards last game on 2.2 yards per carry. QB Johnathon Crompton was very solid for the most part but his 4 TD/5 INT ratio last year is alarming and he got off to a bad start again this year throwing 2 interceptions against Western Kentucky despite throwing 5 touchdown passes (more than all of last season). There is no messing around against this UCLA defense. They allowed SD State to complete only 40.0% of their passes for only 5.3 yards per pass attempt and managed to bring down 3 interceptions. Crompton makes a lot of mistakes, it has cost this team in the past and if the running game does not work the way Kiffin wants it to work, he is going to no doubt ask way too much of his Senior QB which almost always results in mistakes for Crompton. This is a very interesting matchup because I really think the Bruins defense can keep them in this game and put them in a position to win. If they can make some plays and get some stops early, the Bruins offense is going to take care of the rest.
REMATCH is what this is and although the obvious choice is to take the team seeking revenge, I just don't trust Lane Kiffin beyond winning that game last week. I mean the guy is sketchy, he is overrated and beating a newly promoted I-AA team means absolutely nothing. Surprisingly enough the Bruins come into this game with a 12-12-3 lifetime record versus SEC opponents and their win against the Vols last season must have them somewhat confident. As a matter of fact, the only reason Tennessee was even close in last year's meeting is because of their 4 first half interceptions. Well things have changed a lot and I see UCLA being the ones who bring down those INT's here. UCLA has now covered five straight games versus SEC opponents (5-0 ATS) and they have covered 4 of their last 5 non-conference games. You also have to know how good UCLA has been as an underdog going 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog while covering 7 of their last 10 as road underdogs. Believe me this is where I have made money over the years. Tennessee on the other hand has covered the spread only 3 of their last 13 times as a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and they are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus PAC 10 opponents. All the signs point to another close game and I think UCLA pulls another shocker...on the road this time.
Trend of the Game: UCLA is 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus SEC opponents.
UCLA 21, Tennessee 20
North Texas Mean Green +3 (10 Units)
The Ohio Bobcats were one of the teams I decided to fade last week because I don't buy any of the hype that surrounds them on paper. A lot of experts picked this team to win the MAC Conference East which means that they are going to play well in Conference play and the rest is probably going to be a crapshoot. Well off to North Texas they go coming off that 23-16 home opening loss to Connecticut last weekend as +3.5 point home favorite. Now they have not had much time to recover and they have to fly to Texas to play another game against a very jacked up team. Things could be better. This is one of the most veteran teams in the Conference yet they have so many problems getting their act together and Frank Solich must be losing his mind. With an easy I-A game on the slate next week, the Bobcats are probably not all that focused on this game but they better prepare for a much improved North Texas team. Ohio is 5-3 ATS as a road favorite under the close eye of Frank Solich and although most of those wins were against conference, those are still impressive stats. Alright so the loss to Connecticut is not a complete disaster but it wasn't expected and now the risk of going 0-2 SU is going to setoff some alarm bells within this program. Ohio comes into this game off a lethargic effort of only 16 points against UConn that saw them amass only 247.0 total yards of offense and 4.1 yards per pass attempt. North Texas had the worst defense in the NCAA last season but they made some big time changes and should be greatly improved this year. The Mean Green was once again vulnerable to the run in their opener allowing a ton of yards on the ground but Ohio showed absolutely nothing in their running game as they rushed for 61 total yards and 1.8 yards per carry. In the air, QB Boo Jackson completed only 50.0% of his passes for 117 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions. He tried to run the ball 7 times, only 20 yards and the offense was completely ineffective under his guidance. The same can be said about QB Theo Scott so this team has a problem now. The Mean Green defense returns their top 8 tacklers from 2008 and it was noticeable in their pass defense as they allowed Ball State to complete only 44.0% of their passes for only 4.1 yards per pass attempt. The boys from North Texas were pitching a shutout at the half and it almost stayed that way but all-in-all their defense is probably the most improved in the Country coming off a season where they allowed 47.6 points per game and the only way they can prove that is to show it against the lethargic Ohio offense. The Bobcats look like the same offense that scored 20 or less points in three of their first four games in 2008 and although I don't see it staying that way for long, North Texas is on a roll defensively and I think it will be tough to stop them here. The Mean Green will shut down the passing game and force Ohio to the ground where they badly struggled against UConn.
The North Texas Mean Green are a team I would have never considered dropping money on prior to this season but how can I resist after their shocking upset of Ball State in their season opening game last Sunday? Not only does North Texas have two more days than Ohio to prepare for this game but they get open their home slate with a perfect record on the season, something they have not been able to do since the 2005 season. Todd Dodger is finally getting around to some of these kids in his third year here and it looks like the kids in this program who were brought here by Dodge, really want to play and win for him. Okay the Mean Green won't win 10 games this season but I promise you they will not lose 10 or 11 games like they have done both seasons Dodge has been here and they will likely match or surpass their two year total of 3 wins under Dodge. He has 16 returning starters on this team and replacing some of the guys who started last year is probably a good thing for this team. What I do know is that their defense will no longer be the worst in the NCAA so that should allow their offense to do a lot more. This is a big school guys and I think we see a crowd of 30 000 at the game tomorrow. The buzz around Benton says it all as their Mean Green open at home with an undefeated record. Sure the only score 20 points against Ball State but they won as a +16 underdog and they managed a whopping 512.0 total yards of offense on 6.1 yards per play. Ohio did a decent job on defense in their opener but the Bobcats have traditionally struggled against teams that love to run (UConn did it to them last week) and North Texas loves (and always has) to run. The Mean Green rushed for 296.0 yards on 5.8 yards per carry against Ball State as RB Cam Montgomery dropped 148 on the Cardinals. The Senior was outstanding in 2008 and I think he can run for 200+ yards against an Ohio defense that allowed 259 rushing yards in their opener on 5.3 yards per carry. QB Riley Dodge (Todd's son) had never completed a collegiate pass until last week when he completed 23 of 33 for 216 passing yards, 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown, 1 interception and 68 rushing yards. Impressive debut and now he heads home to do it in front of friends and family. Ohio's secondary played well against Connecticut but that's because the Huskies never really tried anything good in the air. Dodge won't hold back here guys. Dodge had to address the issue of penalties this week because the Mean Green took 9.0 penalties in their first game and they are going to be a tad bit excited to play here as underdogs. Having said that, I think Dodge is going to continue to impress. He is running the exact same offense he ran in high school and he looked damn good doing in his first ever college game. As long as North Texas sticks to the plan they are going to win this game and Montgomery is going to run for 200+ yards.
Who would have thought a game between Ohio and North Texas would be one of the most interesting of the week. Well it's not and nobody really cares but I can't wait for this one and I cannot believe the Mean Green are home underdogs. Why in the world would you put your money on Ohio knowing that they are 4-16 SU in their last 20 road openers? Todd Dodge has never won a home opener as head coach of the Mean Green and now that he has his best team yet and that most of these guys are his own recruits, it's time to win him that first home opener as head coach here. Ohio is a team I have made a lot of money betting on when it comes to non-conference games (both home and away) but as UConn showed last week they are beatable and they are also a horrendous September team going 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games played in September. It's also worth mentioning that Frank Solich usually doesn't have his guys ready to play on turf as Ohio is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games played on Field Turf and they don't seem to like this stuff. Coach Dodge was very disappointed in the 1-11 SU finish of his team last season but I say it again. He is on a full head of steam heading into this game, the Mean Green have already matched last year's win total, they did it on the road, his son is the new QB and he was outstanding against Ball State and now it's time to show how improved this program really is. This is for coach Dodge.
Trend of the Game: Ohio is 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games played in September.
North Texas 34, Ohio 24
Memphis Tigers +2 (10 Units)
The Memphis Tigers were a great fade last week but something tells me that they are going to bounce back nicely from that loss to Ole Miss and Tommy West is going to have his guys ready to battle yet another rival local team. The Tigers got off to a bad start in 2009 even though they kept things pretty close with the Rebels for the most part of the first half but it all fell apart at some point early second half (actually it was Hall's horrendous interception for a touchdown that changed the game at the very end of the first half) and the Rebels turned up the heat in a 45-14 win. All was not lost though for the Tigers because they did manage to have a very good first half on both sides of the ball and they do have some veteran players on this team that have earned All-Conference pre-season honors. It's hard to tell what kind of season this team is going to have because they have one of the toughest schedules in their conference and chances are they are going to lose close to 6-7 games but having said that Tommy West knows he has leaders on this team that are probably interested in one more Bowl Game before they leave for good. Memphis managed a putrid 269 total yards of offense in their game against Ole Miss and they did it on 3.4 yards per play. Shitty. However, Ole Miss has one of the most underrated defenses in the NCAA if you ask me. Middle Tennessee had their fair share of problems with Clemson on opening weekend allowing 37 points and 361.0 total yards of offense on 5.3 yards per play. One thing I know for sure is that if Memphis gets their ground attack going, their opponents are going down. Well Middle Tennessee allowed 202.0 rushing yards against Clemson last weekend on 4.3 yards per carry. That's a huge problem for Middle Tennesse because RB Curtis Steele ran for 90 yards (2 touchdowns) and 4.7 yards per carry while Wisconsin transfer RB Lance Smith ran for 63 yards on 10 carries. With these two pounding away on some big gains, the Tigers don't really need to do much more. QB Arkelon Hall was pretty damn good last year but he seemed like he had stage fright or something against Ole Miss and I expect a lot better from him in this game. He is a Senior and he knows this offense well. WR Duke Calhoun and WR Carlos Singleton are deep threats that Hall is going to find against a Middle Tennessee secondary that allowed a whopping 7.3 yards per pass attempt against Clemson. As long as Hall can be a lot more composed in his second game of the season, the Tigers should have no problems controlling this game from the very beginning both on the ground and in the air as they get their first win of the season.
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are a team that has made me some dough over the last couple of years but they have done it against bigger schools and they have done it as an underdog. Rick Stockstill is now in his fourth season as head coach of this team and coming off a 5-7 SU season has to be quite disappointing for him. He now has 10 returning starters on offense, this is the most talented team he has ever had and believe me when I say that they want to win this game. If the Blue Raiders somehow find a way to lose, they are going to have a tough time winning games before October and November as they have Maryland next week on the road followed by road games at North Texas and Troy. So this is their season right here and coming off that 37-14 ugly loss to the Clemson Tigers you would think the 30000+ in attendance tonight are going to be loud. I have to say that I was impressed with Middle Tennessee road win over this same Memphis team back in 2007 as +3 point underdogs but that was the team of back then and things have changed a lot since. The 2007 version of the Blue Raiders had a great offense and they did quite well against non-conference opponents. Having said that, Middle Tennessee managed 299.0 total yards of offense on 3.7 yards per play in their opener and I wouldn't be surprised to see this veteran offense score some points here as well. Memphis was exposed as a team that was going to struggle against the run this season but the only problem with that is that Middle Tennessee rushed for only 107 yards per game in 2008 on 3.1 yards per carry and in their first game of 2009 they managed only 92.0 rushing yards on 2.5 yards per carry. All three top ball carriers from last season are back but none rushed for more than 3.9 yards per carry. That's a problem because Memphis is weak up the middle and against the run but the Blue Raiders don't thave the guys to take advantage of that. The offensive line is overmatched in this game and will force QB Dwight Dasher to move the ball through the air. In 2008 he completed only 38.6% of his 44 pass attempts for 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. This season in the opener he looked ever worse completing only 47.6% of his passes for 204 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions. This Memphis defense is going to have none of that. They allowed Jevan Sneed of Ole Miss to complete only 54.5% of his passes last week, they sacked him 2 times and they had 2 interceptions off the star QB. Well you can expect Dasher to throw a lot of bad passes in this game as well because Memphis likes to come after QB's and they will smell blood from the beginning in this one. Middle Tennessee actually fumbled the ball 7 times in their opener and somehow they managed to hang on each and everytime. Not so much in this one. Memphis is very aggressive around the ball, they punch, they claw and they are ferocious which means it could be turnovers gallore for Middle Tennessee and with that veteran offense, Memphis is not going to miss chances to take the lead.
Rivalry? Not so much just yet but both teams have a ton of players who played with each other when they were younger so there is some bad blood there but otherwise this could turn into something big. I know history is not on the Memphis side in this game because they are 2-8 SU lifetime in this stadium and have not had much success in the past but head coach Tommy West is 4-4 SU versus Sun Belt Conference opponents in his Memphis coaching career. Now I have taken note over the years that fading Middle Tennessee in home openers is a good idea because this team is 1-6 SU in their last 7 home openers and the average loss is by 7 points so I would say Memphis is going to have a good chance here. For those of you who have bet on Memphis in the past you will remember that they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog of 0.5 to 3.0 points and this seems to be their sweet spot in terms of getting them going. They are also very well coached and Tommy West has them 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss the game before. Believe me Memphis is well prepared for this game. Dating back to last season Middle Tennessee has not done a good job covering spreads as they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall and I really don't see the stopping the Memphis ground attack in this game. Give me Memphis here as a doggie!
Trend of the Game: Memphis is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss.
Memphis 39, Middle Tennessee 17
Ohio State Buckeyes +6.5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The USC Trojans are my home, my blood, the team I support and the team I want my kids to play for one day. Having said that I have to keep a straight head here and it took me a while but sometime over the weekend I made my decision to fade Pete Caroll and company. It's not that I don't think this is the best team in the Country by quite a bit but it's more the fact that people in Columbus are still reeling and talking about that loss to USC on the road in 2008 and this game has been circled and marked down on calendars for quite some time now. So what if this team is using a freshman QB right? Well the same was said about Terrelle Pryor before last year's game and everyone said he was going to be fine but he came out like a deer in the headlights and nobody really expected that. QB Matt Barkley showed no signs of being a freshman in the Trojans 56-3 win on opening weekend but nothing compares to a Nationally Televised football game being called the "College Game of the Year" played on the road in front of millions to a game at home against San Jose State. One game is just not enough to tell the story and we need more samples before juding Barkely. Unfortunately time is up and before I move on, I want it to be known that I think Barkely is going to make costly mistakes in this game and it is going to cost his team in the end. The Trojans can do everything and anything better than anyone else. They scored 56 in their opener, had 621.0 total yards of offense in that game on 9.1 yards per play and nothing else needs to be said. Sure Ohio State struggled defensively against Navy but come on. They didn't care about that game and yet still allowed only 342.0 total yards of offense in that game. We all know Ohio State had trouble stopping the run but that was the infamous Navy option formation and believe me USC won't be doing any of that tonight. Barkley was very impressive in his debut as he completed 78.9% of his passes for 233 passing yards, 12.3 yards per pass attempt and 1 touchdown pass. Won't be that easy against the Buckeyes who were torched on the few passing plays they faced but only because the box was loaded. The moment of truth. Can Ohio State put enough pressure on Barkley to force mistakes? I mean he was sacked 2 times against San Jose State and he still makes young guy mistakes. It should also be noted that in their win last week, USC fumbled twice and lost both fumbles which is again a sign of inexperience in the offense. What also concerns me for Barkley and the offense is that they scored 0 points in the first quarter of their win against San Jose State and a slow start like that at the SHOE is not going to cut it. In the Big Ten Conference, you won't find a better D-Line than Ohio State's nor will you find a better secondary than the Buckeyes. The Trojans will probably want to run for 343.0 rushing yards again like they did against San Jose State but give the Buckeyes defense some respect because their D-Line is damn good. I love USC but I think Barkley is going to get caught making the wrong moves at the wrong time and that is going to throw off the USC offensive flow. Don't like the Trojans at all in this spot. This is a team that is probably going to bounce back from a loss and still win the National Championship but their lack of big time playmakers on special teams this season is also a concern because big stars shine big in games like this. What's funny is that three RB's for USC averaged more than 10.0 yards per carry in 23 combined carries last week but the key for me is the size and ability of the Ohio State defensive line that should put somewhat of a pause on USC's running game. That's the big key!
The Ohio State Buckeyes want nothing to do with the spread for this game. When word spread that they were underdogs by almost a touchdown in this game, in their own stadium, with their owns fans...some of the players took that personally and the electricity for this game is probably up dozens and dozens of notches. This is definitely the biggest game of Jim Tressel's Ohio State coaching career and a loss here would probably have him re-considering the position for years to come. I mean now that I look back at the near loss to Navy last week, something tells me Ohio State is so jacked up for this game tonight that they totally had their eyes looking up a week when playing the Midshipmen. It would make sense. USC on the other hand was out having a touchdown party at the expense of San Jose State last week but they need a piece of humble pie before this starts or they could be in for the shock of their lives. Ohio State is no joke. Their game against Navy is in the distant future right now. This is the big game. If you win this game your name is now featured as the projected BCS Bowl Champions. If you lose this game you have to go back to the drawing board for 2010 because these are losses that end seasons. Believe me the Buckeyes have talked about nothing but their 35-3 loss one year ago to this same USC team and anything short of some payback is going to be considered a failure by this team. Sure the Buckeyes did nothing all that flashy in their home opener last week scoring 31 points on 367 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play but again that was expected with all the preparations for this game of the year tonight. Would you believe USC allowed only 121 total yards of offense against San Jose State and that the Trojans (SJ State) managed only 9.0 rushing yards on a whopping 31 carries. Yup that's right this is one of the best defenses if not the best defense in the Nation and the only way to win this game for Ohio State is if Terrell Pryor is cut loose. It's a must. You can't just have guys throwing themselves at him like a piece of meat. You need some movement on the edge, some screen passes, something deep, some trickery. Whatever you want to call, Pryor has to be involved. He was great in the game last week despite the late interceptions as he completed 66.7% of his passes for 174 passing yards, 8.3 yards per pass attempt with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. This kid was scared last year but he looks determined to shut the critics up. What I think is the most important thing to remember is that USC's defensive success is often based on their pass rush and their speed up the middle. Well Pryor was tagged for no sacks last week and USC is going to have a tough time catching him and trying to add to their total of 5 sacks last season. USC is also very good at punching away the ball, they tackle to hurt you and they had two fumble recoveries in their opener. Having said all that I think Jim Tressell is going to have a statement game for his program. He has never won Big Ten Conference coach of the year awards and a win here would probably lock that up for good. What Pryor also needs is someone to emerge from the land of nowhere and lead this team to some good things. RB Brandon Saine and RB Dan Herron ran well in the first game and Terrelle Pryor has already decided that his big long target this year is going to be WR Dane Sanzenbacher (who is not that big). Pryor is not going to disappoint here guys, mark my words.
My story is as follows. I am currently in the process of moving to Columbus, Ohio in the next few weeks for business. I spent the better part of last week there and learned quite a bit about the Buckeyes. The one thing I have learned the most though is that YOU HAVE TO GIVE THE BUCKEYES A CHANCE HERE! Last year as a fluster and this year they are prepared. I think enough is enough, it's time for a change. According to what I have read about, USC leads this series lifetime and they have won six straight games versus the Buckeyes. What's even more impressive for those still taking the Trojans in this game is the fact that they are 8-0 SU in their last 8 non-conference road games versus BCS conferences. Does anyone remember the Texas game back in 2005 when everyone said the Longhorns would come in and do some serious damage? Well that was right but the game was close and the Buckeyes handled business well. If you like stats you will be interested to know that OHIO STATE IS 46-1 SU IN THEIR LAST 47 NON-CONFERENCE HOME GAMES with their only loss to Texas and should they win, this place is going to erupt. USC has always dominated Big Ten Conference teams and they have covered the spread in 8 straight road games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Where things go bad is when we talk about the Trojans and how they have covered the spread in only 1 of their last 5 games as a road favorite. Ohio State is a whopping 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games versus PAC 10 opponents and there is no better time to get rid of those home demons than now. Anyways ladies and gentlemen enjoy the game, it should be a good one and I am going to watch, make some cash and come back in here to celebrate a Buckeyes program changing win. Well maybe not program changing but this is huge, this is a huge burden off their backs if they can win and I would think the path to the National Championship is wide open after this. I THINK OHIO STATE DOES IT!!! Upset and play of the week baby!
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 46-1 SU in their last 47 home games versus non-conference opponents.
Ohio State 27, USC 25
:toast:
WEEK 2 RECAP
Clemson +5 ***PLAY OF THE NIGHT***
Colorado -3.5
North Carolina -3.5
Indiana -1.5
Stanford +3
Notre Dame -3.5
East Carolina +6.5
UCLA +10
North Texas +3
Memphis +2
Ohio State +6.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
Welcome to my 2009 College Football Season. Last year did not go all that well but I had some big wins but I also had some big unit losses and this is a good time to recover. My best season was still the 2004 season where I made huge profits and I hope I can regain that magical touch of my last year posting at Covers.com before being banned for life.
Please keep in mind that these are all my plays, my writeups, my bullshit, my common sense...whatever you wanna call what I post. Some tout sites have used my writeups in the past but it's not authorized and I post everything first obviously. Enjoy the season and GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
Week 1: 9-4 ATS (+55.00 Units)
Week 2:
Please also keep in mind that 1 Unit = $100 for all my plays unless otherwise posted. I will try to post plays in early every week but with my move out of the Country it's going to be tough the next month or so please forgive the lateness of my plays.
Also stop being so obessed with my units. I bet what I want to bet and you can all use the units as a guideline to see how much I like a play. Money is money, some of us have it, some of us don't. Who cares as long as you are making your own money right?
LET'S MAKE SOME CASH!
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Thursday, September 10
Clemson Tigers +5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE NIGHT***
The Clemson Tigers were picked by several media outlets to win the ACC Atlantic Division this season so it comes as a bit of a surprise to me that they are such big underdogs in a game that is probably going to be close for the most part. The Tigers are coming off an impressive season opening win over Middle Tennessee as -18.5 point favorites, pounding the visitors into the ground in a 37-14 romp. What a difference one year makes as we all remember Clemson's season opening 34-10 loss to Alabama in 2008 as -4 point favorites. Head Coach Dabo Swinney is finally in charge for a full season and we are about to find out what he is really made of. Despite their 7-6 record in 2008, Clemson was actually better on the road than at home and they finished 2-2 SU and ATS away from home in ACC Conference play (they beat Boston College and Virginia and lost to Wake Forest and Florida State). No matter what anyone says this Clemson team is a veteran team and they are not going to forget that home loss to this same Georgia Tech team just one year ago. Again this is a veteran squad that is returning 15 starters in total. If anyone can stop the akward Paul Johnson it has to be this defense and I really expect Kevin Steele to have his guys prepared for what is essentially their biggest game of the season. Clemson comes into this game off that 37 point performance that saw them amass 361.0 total yards of offense on 5.3 yards per play. Georgia Tech's defense is experienced but they have a lot weaknesses and that showed in their win over a I-AA school last week where they allowed 17 points on 291.0 total yards of offense and 4.1 yards per play. On the ground, the Tigers are going to be very dangerous as both RB Andre Ellington and RB Jamie Parker were outstanding (while CJ Spiller only had 4 carries after his injury). I would be worried if I was Georgia Tech because they allowed 98.0 rushing yards last week and allowed 3.0 yards per carry. Clemson ran for 202.0 yards last week on 4.3 yards per carry which only made things easier for QB Kyle Parker. The redshirt freshman was alright in his first college ball experience throwing 2 TD passes on 159 passing yards and if the running game can get going early again, he should have a lot of chances in this game against a Yellow Jackets defense that allowed Jacksonville State to complete 60.5% of their passes for 5.1 yards per pass attempt. Clemson had problems holding onto the ball last week but things can only get better for this offense. They scored a whopping 30 points in the first half of the Middle Tennessee game and I think Swinney will have these guys ready to play. Georgia Tech can do all they want on offense, the bottom line is their defense is weak, their Linebackers can't stop the run and their DL is the worst in the ACC Conference. Clemson will score some points folks.
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are off to a good start but I don't trust teams that play NL (Non-Lined) games against I-AA opponents in their first week of action because we can't get much analysis out of that. Having said that, Georgia Tech survived Jacksonville State last week in their home opener in 37-17 fashion. It was expected and I don't think it was great preparation for such a tough ACC Conference game in their second week of play. Paul Johnson is now in his second year as head coach here, he already has this team up in the TOP 10 rushing teams in the Nation and it looks like he could be well on his way to this team's first 10 win season in God knows how long. Don't get me wrong, this is a very good team, with 18 returning starters. Having said that, they key to their defense that allowed only 20.3 points per game in 2008 was Michael Johnson who had 46 tackles, 9 sacks, 7 pass breakups and 1 interception. He is now gone. However, everyone else is back and like I said before, this team is going to contend for the ACC Conference Championship but it all starts tonight and I don't like their chances with a road trip to Miami a week from tonight. Georgia Tech comes into this game off an impressive 37 points performance that saw them amass 497.0 total yards of offense on 8.0 yards per play but their opponent was a I-AA school. Enough said. Clemson has one of the best defenses in this conference and they have already seen this Paul Johnson offense (losing by 4 just a year ago). Clemson allowed only 14 points to Middle Tennessee last week, they allowed only 299.0 total yards of offense on 3.7 yards per play and I think they can slow down the Jackets enough to do some damage of their own. It comes to nobodies surprise that Georgia Tech rushed for 335.0 total yards last week on 6.7 yards per carry but they also fumbled the ball a whopping 5 times in that game and that is a huge problem for a team that lost some big games in 2008 because of turnovers. Clemson won't be as easy to run on as they allowed only 2.5 yards per carry last week and their secondary was just as solid picking off 3 passes in that game, allowing Middle Tennessee to complete only 47.7% of their passes for 4.7 yards per pass attempt. The Yellow Jackets did not do much passing last week attempting only 12 passes and completing 7 of them. Again a big mistake if you ask me. This Clemson defense is relentless and we will see that tonight. They had 3 interceptions last week, forced 7 fumbles (despite not recovering any of them), had 3 sacks and they are going to be all over this run game. Even though the Tigers secondary (one of the best in the Country) can't showcase themselves tonight, I think they will find a way to contain the Jackets, force some mistakes and hand their offense the ball.
Alright so here we go again. Two second year coaches going at it in what is the biggest ACC Conference game of this early 2009 season. Take your pick. What I know for sure is that the line by the guys in Vegas is a bit shocking and even more shocking is the amount of people taking Paul Johnson's team even though they only won by 4 last year. I mean Clemson has a ton of guys back from that game and I think this is going to be close. Don't forget that despite the 17-21 loss to Georgia Tech last year at home, Clemson was actually leading that game 17-14 with 5:00 left but QB Willy Korn got dropped, left the game, and that was that. If you look back at the history between these two teams, 10 of their last 13 meetings have been decided by 5 points or less. What sense does it make to predict a blowout here? Personally my misery betting on Clemson the last few seasons was pretty much me taking them as favorites but as underdogs the Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog and they have covered the spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Impressive. Paul Johnson was perfect ATS wise in September of last year and the Jackets looked good early season but they cannot be trusted at home as they have covered the spread in only 3 of their last 12 home games as a favorite. OUCH! Dabo Swinney is by no means a top notch coach but this is one of the most talented teams in the Conference and I think they are going to bark louder than most dogs this weekend, they will force turnovers and they will pound the ball on the ground leading them to a 2-0 start on the season.
Trend of the Game: Clemson is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
Clemson 24, Georgia Tech 19
Friday, September 11
Colorado Buffaloes -3.5 (10 Units)
The Colorado Buffaloes were completely embarrassed in their opening game of the season last week against the rival Colorado State Rams and not only is Dan Hawkins on his last straw as the head coach of this University but his son Cody will probably be swimming with the college football fishes just as fast if he doesn't get his game together in a hurry. I bet on Colorado State +10 last week and won. So listen to me when I ask you to calm down, take a breath and give the Buffaloes a second chance. The matchups were bad last week and we all knew it was way too many points for a rivalry game like that. I was one of the first to say that if Hawkins lost last week's game that he would be one more loss away from being done as head coach of the Buffaloes. Well time to show us what you are made of Dan. Colorado went 0-4 on the road last season losing at Kansas by 16, losing at Missouri by 58, losing at Texas A&M by 7 and losing at Nebraska by 9. All as underdogs. This is a big game for the program and Hawkins has a big chance to right the ship before Conference play starts on October 10. The Buffaloes have an easy home game against Wyoming next week and depending on how they do at West Virginia after their BYE week, they could hit the Texas game 3-1. Not bad at all. Colorado comes into this game off a pitiful offensive performance that saw them put only 17 points on the board off 251.0 total yards of offense and 4.0 yards per play. Well things can only get better against a horrendous Toledo defense that allowed 52 points on the road against Purdue last week and that allowed 535.0 total yards of offense on 8.0 yards per play. Expect Colorado to open things up. RB Rodney Stewart was great for Colorado in his 6 times carrying the ball and I expect him to go off for 150+ in this game against a Toledo defense that got torched for 315.0 rushing yards last week on 8.1 yards per carry. An effective running attack should help QB Cody Hawkins who completed a decent 58.5% of his 41 pass attempts last week for 222 passing yards, 1 Touchdown and 1 Interception. Wasn't his fault. Toledo's defense allowed 7.9 yards per pass attempt last week, they were absolutely torched and if Offensive Coordinator Eric Kiesau knows what he is doing, he is going to dial up big play after big play here. The Rockets have an aggressive secondary that makes plays a high risk, high reward type of game but Hawkins has seen that before in the Big 12 Conference and it won't be a problem. The Rockets have no pass rush to speak of so Hawkins can forget about the 4 times he was sacked last week and with time in the pocket, I don't doubt he is going to hook up with TE Riar Geer (6 catches last week, 14.1 yards per catch in 2008) for some big yardage plays. This is a redemption game for the Buffaloes and I don't see them blowing it.
The Toledo Rockets were supposed to be one of the most improved teams in the Country this season but they sure as heck did not look like in their season opening 21 point road loss at Purdue as a +10 point underdog and I have reason to believe that until MAC Conference play starts, this team is not going to win many games. Alright so Tim Beckman is the new head coach around here and I was very interested to see how this team would react to Tom Astutsz stepping down as head coach (after 8 years) after spending 30+ years around this team. So far, so bad. This is another team looking for redemption but with Colorado this week and Ohio State next week, the Rockets are going to enter their winnable game schedule with an 0-3 record on the year. I know Purdue has a good offense but these guys allowed 52 points and they looked very much like the defenses of 2007 and 2008 that allowed 39.2 and 31.4 points per game respectively. RB Morgan Williams who was the backbone of this offense in 2008 is still suspended and until he comes back, the Rockets are going to badly miss his 169 carries for 1053 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns and 6.0 yards per carry. Don't forget his 13 catches and 315 kick return yards. LB Daris Quinn is also still suspended (77 tackles, 4th on the team in 2008). Despite that, the Toledo offense looked pretty damn good scoring 31 points, amassing 493.0 total yards of offense on 5.4 yards per pass attempt but it will be hard to repeat that feat against a Colorado team that is going to gut check themselves tonight. I have to admit Colorado's defense was a bit shell shocked in their opener as they returned only 4 starters this year. Although I don't really expect any better than what we saw last game, I do expect the Colorado offense to make things a bit easier this week for this young defense. The Buffaloes were torched on the ground last week as Colorado State rushed the ball 44 times and really worked the trenches. Toledo won't be doing much of that as they rushed the ball only 22 times against Purdue for 70.0 rushing yards and 3.2 yards per carry. The Buffaloes can't concentrate on Toledo's air attack that despite passing for 423.0 yards last week against Purdue, QB Aaron Opelt averaged only 6.1 yards per pass attempt, threw 3 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. Opelt's career TD-INT ratio at Toledo is 30-19 (not so good) and this Colorado secondary has some big time playmakers like CB Cha'Pelle Brown (I would say the top CB in the Conference) who led the team to 2 interceptions against Colorado State. What has to be noted is that once the jitters were gone (1st half), this Buffaloes defense really stepped up last week and allowed only 3 points in the second half. I think that second half was a great building block for this week and we should see a few game changing plays from this defense even if they allow a lot of points again. Opelt is almost always good for an interception or two per game and seeing how Colorado's secondary had only 9 interceptions all year in 2008 and now they already have 2, I think they step things up a notch.
Not the most enticing Friday Night game that is for sure but an interesting one nonetheless now that both teams lost their opening games and both teams failed to cover the spread in those games. I think a very important stat to remember for this game is that Colorado always seems to play well after the Colorado State game as they are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games after playing the Rams and they have won those games by an average of 19.0 points per game. I don't want to discuss Colorado's past non-conference road games because some of them are not pretty but this is the MAC Conference we are talking about and Colorado/Dan Hawkins has something to prove. I do remember Toledo beating Kansas at home in 2006 (took two overtimes) and I also remember their win over Iowa State here in 2007 but all-in-all the Rockets are 2-4 SU lifetime versus teams from the Big 12 Conference and I don't like their chances. Looking back quite a few years, Colorado has a decent track record on Friday Nights as they have covered the spread in 11 of their last 16 games played and this team is 1-1 ATS under Dan Hawkins as a road favorite (5-2 ATS in their last 7 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points). Toledo historically has been good as home dog and they have burned me in the past but they are notorious for slow starts, covering only 4 of their last 15 games played in September and they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. As much as Toledo has improved, Dan Hawkins is throwing his entire arsenal of plays at them tonight. Too much to handle.
Trend of the Game: Colorado is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Friday games.
Colorado 34, Toledo 19
Saturday, September 12
North Carolina Tar Heels -3.5 (10 Units)
The North Carolina Tar Heels are the real deal, they are ranked #19 in the Country right now but they have to win this game to prove it and I think they get the job done. Being ranked is something this team is used to be because they played 5 games as a ranked team in 2008 going 2-3 SU in those games (with wins over Notre Dame and Georgia Tech). With an additional year of experience and a 1-0 SU start as a ranked team, the Tar Heels should be ready for their first test of 2009 and it comes at the hands of a very impressive Connecticut Huskies team. I am not worried. North Carolina showed no jitters last week in their 40-6 Non-Lined win over I-AA The Citadel. Butch Davis has done a tremendous job with this team and despite losing starting QB Cam Sexton (who wasn't even that good if you ask me), this team brings back a plethora of experienced players who all took part in the team's 31-30 loss in the Meneika Car Care Bowl in 2008. I expect the offense to finally average more than 30 points per game under Butch Davis and if they can score 30+ a game in the ACC Conference, you can expect this team to contend for the ACC Coastal Division Title. North Carolina comes into this game off that 40 point performance against The Citadel last week, a game that saw them amass 374.0 total yards of offense on 5.7 yards per play. The Huskies defense was impressive against Ohio in their opener allowing only 16 points on 247.0 total yards of offense and 4.1 yards per play. We all know how well the Heels can run the ball as they ran for 260.0 yards in their opener on a whopping 5.9 yards per carry. With such a young and inexperienced core of WR's on this team (their top 3 receivers with 17 combined receiving TD's are all gone) you would expect such a performance. QB TJ Yates is finally in charge around Chapel Hill and his 2008 season (11 touchdown passes, 4 interceptions, 1168 passing yards on 60% pass completion rate) is a good indication that it won't take time for this team to put things together. I don't mind if the Tar Heels continue to run the ball because they were unstoppable last week with RB Shaun Draughn and RB Ryan Houston and until someone can stop them, why not keep running it. The Huskies secondary allowed 6.6 yards per pass attempt last week and I think North Carolina's running attack is definitely going to open things up for Yates to throw the ball up despite his mediocre numbers last week. I think the Huskies can avoid getting torched with the deep ball in this game but their LB's and front line unit are going to struggle against the Tar Heels front line (not the best in the ACC but still). I see this more as a back and forth struggle between offenses but UNC has the edge in almost every offensive category versus Connecticut's defense and Butch will have his guys ready today.
The Connecticut Huskies were one of my wagers last week as a -3.5 at Ohio and I know a lot of people liked the Bobcats a lot in that game but for me it was all about pure talent and the Huskies are definitely one of the most underrated teams in the Big East. I see some magazines and some experts have them pegged as finishing 6th, 7th and 8th in the Big East but so far so good for this group of guys. QB Tyler Lorenzen departed after last season and so did standout and superstar RB Donald Brown. Was that a problem in the Huskies first game since the departure of their two top offensive players of the last few years? Not at all. They managed 23 points against a decent Ohio defense, on the road, in a season opening game with only 12 returning starters on both sides of the ball. Not bad at all and I was actually impressed with what I saw. Having said that, I think the line is completely off for this game because despite playing well last game, the Huskies are not on the same level as a team like North Carolina that has a full year experience of playing as a ranked team and that is going to want to blow the doors off every opponent they faced (I-A opponents that is) to prove that last year was not a fluke and that they still have a top team. The Huskies weren't all that great on offense in the opener scoring 23 points on 386 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play. I have high expectations for this North Carolina defense that has in my opinion one of the best D-Lines in the Conference. They allowed only 6 points in their opener and allowed only 153.0 total yards of offense in that game on 2.6 yards per play. I talked about offensive struggles and I think we see the Huskies struggle big time in this game. Most of Connecticut's offense came from the run game against Ohio as they rushed for 259.0 yards on 5.3 yards per carry but again North Carolina's D-Line is arguably the best in the ACC Conference and they allowed only 30.0 rushing yards in their opener on 1.5 yards per carry. QB Zach Frazer struggled completing only 45.8% of his passes for 127 passing yards, 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Horrendous performance and seeing how he will be forced to throw today, I think that is going to be a problem. The Tar Heels secondary is vicious, they are tough, they are aggressive and they had 3 interceptions in their win against The Citadel. Frazer was a terrible passer last year with his 2 touchdown, 6 interception ratio and unless the running game can get going, which it won't against this D-Line, the Huskies are going to struggle to score more than 10 points in this game.
Alright so this is the case where regardless of public numbers, you have to go with the better team. The only reason the line is so low is because the Huskies were very impressive in their opening game and the oddsmakers have taken this into account a tad too much. I have to say that a big factor for me here is that Butch Davis had this group 4-1 SU in non-conference play last year and I don't see how this team is going to regress that much from the 38-12 win over this very same Connecticut team in 2008 (even though it was at home). I bet most of you don't know that Connecticut is 4-23-2 SU in their last 29 games versus current teams from the ACC Conference and the only two times they have played North Carolina, they have lost by an average of 26.5 points. So again I mention that this North Carolina team went 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games and they are very consistent when it comes to stringing together top notch defensive performances. Connecticut's trademark is pretty much the way they play at home but the last time they had less than 14 starters returning to their team was in 2006 and they went 4-8 SU that year. What most people don't know is that Connecticut has covered the spread in only 3 of their last 12 games versus teams with a winning record and a lot of their big wins have come against mediocre teams. There is nothing mediocre about the Tar Heels.
Trend of the Game: North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
North Carolina 26, Connecticut 9
Indiana Hoosiers -1.5 (5 Units)
The Western Michigan Broncos are back for another try at winning a game on the road against a school from the Big Ten Conference and let me tell you that the last time they were in this place, they weren't too successful. The most memorable road win for this program in a long time came at the end of the 2007 season when the Broncos went to Iowa and took on the Hawkeyes as +14 point underdogs. Not only did they win that game but they won it by 9 points and they shocked the Nation with what could arguably be called the biggest win in program history. That was with 16 starters back that season. In 2006 when they only had 14 starters back, the Broncos came to Indiana as +6 point underdogs and got their asses handed to them in a 39-20 loss. Well this season the Broncos return only 10 starters which is their lowest since 2003 and like we saw in their season opening 31-7 loss to Michigan, this team is going to struggle big time against bigger and better teams. Who knows, the Broncos could sweep the remainder of their schedule after this but this team is not going on the road and beating a Big Ten Conference opponent. Western Michigan comes into this game having amassed 301.0 total yards of offense on 4.8 yards per play in their opener. Indiana is not a good defensive team and it showed in their opener versus a I-AA team but they do have some leadership back there which should make a difference. Western Michigan ran for a putrid 38.0 yards against Michigan on 1.6 yards per carry. That won't improve here because the Hoosiers have one of the best D-Lines in the Big Ten Conference. That should force QB Tim Hiller to put the ball in the air. I don't doubt the Broncos can score in this game because Hiller has a big time arm with big time experience and the Hoosiers secondary was torched last week against a I-AA school but this game is going to be about keeping up with the other teams offense and the edge is definitely with Indiana. Western Michigan was too inconsistent last week and without a decent ground game to open things up for Hiller, expect the Broncos to lose pace with the Hoosiers at some point. You also have to expect this Hoosiers defense to come up with more big plays this week than they did last week where they recorded 0 sacks, forced 0 fumbles and had 0 interceptions. Western Michigan can only pass the ball but that won't be enough to win.
The Indiana Hoosiers are probably the worst team in the Big Ten Conference and it showed last week against Eastern Kentucky (I-AA team in a Non-Lined game) as the Hoosiers struggled to a 19-13 win. Having said that, a win is a win in college football and for a team that won only 3 games in all of 2008, after going 7-6 SU in Bill Lynch's first season as head coach, this is still a great start. Going 2-0 SU to start the year would be a dream start for Lynch because they have Akron next week (another winnable game), they have Virginia in a few weeks, they have Purdue at home and they have Northwestern on their schedule again this year. With that being said, this team could be 3-0 SU heading into the game in Ann Arbor on September 26. They also have Illinois at home on Homecoming and with all those games taken into account, this team could shock everyone and be eligible for a Bowl Game come December. They have 15 returning starters, 5 of their top 6 tacklers from 2008 are also back, they have a new QB and if they can get things going on offense, they are going to have a shot at 5-6 wins. Speaking of the offense, the Hoosiers are going to need some in this game. They scored only 19 points in their opener but they did manage 399.0 total yards of offense on 6.0 yards per play in that game and missed a few opportunities to score a lot more points. Western Michigan's defense was horrendous against Michigan as they allowed 439.0 yards of total offense on 5.6 yards per play. The Hoosiers had no running attack to speak of in their win over Eastern Kentucky but I expect either RB Darius Willis or RB Demetrius McCray to have breakout performances in this game against a Western Michigan defense that allowed 242.0 rushing yards in the Michigan game on 4.8 yards per carry. Gone is QB Kellen Lewis, the dual threat star of this team the last few seasons but in comes QB Ben Chappell who in my opinion was very impressive in his debut completing 75.0% of his passes for 326 passing yards, 9.1 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 2 interceptions. He rushed for 3 TD's last season and has enough experience to lead this team. We saw in the opener that Chappell has an arm and he won't hesitate to go deep to some of his young receivers. I think the deep ball is going to be there again today as Western Michigan allowed 7.0 yards per pass attempt against the Wolverines and the Broncos come into this season having lost 5 of their top 7 tacklers as they return only 3 starters on defense. Western Michigan's secondary had 13 interceptions in 2008 and 11 of those interceptions are gone this season. Chappell is a big kid with a big arm and he is going to do some serious damage (we are talking 300+ yards) against this Broncos secondary that has virtually no experience whatsoever. Expect the Hoosiers to trade a bunch of blows and land bigger punches in this game. Despite their 1 INT against Michigan, the Broncos recorded 0 sacks and forced 0 fumbles. Indiana's offense wins this game.
Alright so this is not the most enticing matchup of all time but you have to take a Big Ten Conference team playing at home against a MAC Conference opponent. Specially when the line is so low. Western Michigan has never beaten Indiana in their four game history going 0-4 SU and I don't see it happening this year either. I can safely tell you that this year's Indiana team is going to be better than last year's and I just don't see the Hoosiers losing games to MAC Conference opponents like they did in 2008 (lost to Ball State and Central Michigan at home). They are a more experienced squad this time around and they are eager to start the season 2-0 against pretty much all odds. When MAC Conference play starts, I won't hesitate to back the Broncos as underdogs like I have done the past few season. However, Western Michigan is 0-4 ATS in their last four games, they have covered the spread in only 2 of their last 8 games played in the month of September and they have covered the spread in only 4 of their last 14 games played on grass. Indiana is definitely not a team you can say has made you money in the past but I am a big fan of spot betting and this is the only time I will back them all season...win or lose. They are 9-14 ATS under Bill Lynch but more importantly they are good when favored at home going 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. This is the time to back these guys, this should be a shootout and I am taking Indiana.
Trend of the Game: Indiana is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite.
Indiana 42, Western Michigan 32
Stanford Cardinal +3 (10 Units)
The Stanford Cardinal are going to have to rise and shine pretty damn early if they want to win this game but with all the hoopla about the start time (9:00am start time for the Cardinal), I just don't buy too much into that. How many times as a kid did you have to play some sort of tournament and the first game was at 8 or 9 in the morning? All the time and guess what, most kids had their best performances at those times. This could make sense in the pros where they don't care as much but these kids are going to be ready to win this game. Stanford is coming off a very impressive conference road win over Washington State as a -17 point favorite (they won 39-13) and this could finally be the year where they return to the Bowl Season, a place they have not been since the 2001 season. Despite winning only 5 games in 2008, the Cardinal could potentially be 5-0 heading into the Oregon State game in Corvallis and that would probably mean they are a lock for the post-season with one more win to go. That's what makes this game all that more important. This is probably the game that will decide their fate and with 17 returning starters, you know these guys want a part of the post-season. Jim Harbaugh has done a great job here and this is his 3rd year in charge. The Cardinal were very impressive in their opener scoring 39 points and amassing a whopping 481.0 total yards of offense on an even more impressive 7.4 yards per play. Wake Forest has traditionally had good defensive teams the last few years but they return only 4 starters this season and they allowed 24 points on 366.0 total yards of offense in their opener while allowing 5.9 yards per play. There is a very good chance that RB Tory Gerhart runs for 200+ yards in this game because the Cardinals rushed for 288.0 yards in their opener on 6.9 yards per carry and Wake Forest got destroyed on the ground in their opener, allowing 197 rushing yards on 5.3 yards per carry. Gerhart ran for 123 yards last game, he ran for 1176 yards last season with 15 touchdowns and was a PAC 10 All-Conference 1st Team Member. I realize it's going to take some time for freshman QB Andrew Luck to develop so expect a lot of running from this team for now and after the way they ran in their opener, who can blame them. Luck did average 8.4 yards per pass attempt and did throw a touchdown pass in his debut. If the running game continues to be successful, expect Luck to unload some bombs on Wake Forest's revamped secondary (Luck threw 5 TD passes in the spring game) as the Demon Deacons allowed Baylor to complete 64.0% of their passes for 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Luck had very good protection in his debut and Stanford was lucky enough to recover both times they fumbled the ball. Believe me this is one offense you do not want to mess with this season because there is an upgrade at every position from last season and Stanford wants to reach their first Bowl Game under Harbaugh. This game matters the most.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are not going to be anywhere as good this season as they have been in past season but I think it's going to take some time for people to realize that. How much more proof do you need other than their home opener last weekend where Baylor walked into this place and snatched a 24-21 win? Wake Forest won 8 games last season and have now won at least 8 games in each season since the 2005 season but all good things must come to an end and that time has come for this team. I don't know how this team is going to replace their top 5 tacklers on the defensive side of things because those 5 tacklers combined for almost 400 tackles in 2008, 8 interceptions, 6 sacks and more than 20 tackles for losses. So anytime these guys run into a team that is offensively inclined, they are going to struggle unless their offense can keep up. In this case I don't think the offense can keep up with Stanford and their time controlling run game. I don't know what it is with these guys because they did return 9 starters on offense and I do expect them to get better but Jim Grobe teams have never been know for their ability to put up huge numbers. This team, despite the 8 wins last season, averaged only 21.0 points per game. In their game against Baylor (Big 12 defenses suck for the most part), Wake Forest managed only 269.0 total yards of offense on 4.1 yards per play. I do expect them once again to get better against a Stanford defense that struggles to stop most teams on any given Saturday. We all know the Deacons don't have much of a running game as they managed only 126.0 rushing yards on 3.7 yards per carry in the opener and I don't expect an improvement against a Stanford defense that held their ground last week and allowed only 3.0 yards per carry. That will once again force QB Riley Skinner to put the ball up and that was quite the adventure last week. He completed 64.5% of his passes but for only 4.6 yards per pass attempt and a lot of short yardage gains. He was also sacked 3 times, threw 3 interceptions and will no doubt have his fair share of problems against today against a Stanford defense that had 3 sacks of their own against Washington State and that return all 7 of their interceptions on defense from last season. The Stanford is very vulnerable, they are not all that fast and they lack size and toughness but Skinner for some reason lacks consistency and if he is under pressure again this game, he is going to continue making mistakes like he did in the opener. I have to admit Stanford's defense must be feeling pretty good about themselves right now having allowed only 3 first half points last game and with that kind of confidence and some support from their offense, we could see another sub 30 point performance by this defense.
Trap is all I can say about this game. It looks obvious and it looks too easy to take Wake Forest because Stanford is playing such an early game on the West Coast but this rule doesn't apply for each and every football game ever played with East Coast/West Coast discrepancy. I think I remember Stanford opening their 2005 season on the East Coast against Navy with a 41-38 win as a -3 favorite in that game. Sure their defense can be atrocious at times but this year's offense is exciting and Harbaugh has built an offense that can score 40+ points on any given night really. One of the biggest reasons I like the underdog here is because of the last 9 times Wake Forest has played a home game versus a non-conference BCS team, 7 of those games have been decided by less than a touchdown and we are probably in for a thriller here. I love how Stanford finished last season with a 3-1 ATS mark because they almost beat the Ducks in Eugene, they stayed within 24 of USC and they beat Washington State by 58. That makes them 4-1 ATS in their last five games. As much as I am not a fan of betting Stanford on the road, this game is a must win for their Bowl Game situation because a loss here and the best they can really do is 5 wins this season. Wake Forest are notorious for mediocre performances in September covering the spread in only 5 of their last 16 games played in that month. You also have to know that Wake Forest has covered the spread in only 7 of their last 23 home games when favored. OUCH! Stanford is going to keep this close and probably win on a late drive.
Trend of the Game: Wake Forest is 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games as a favorite.
Stanford 28, Wake Forest 27
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3.5 (10 Units)
The Notre Dame Fighting are the real deal, a lot of people don't want to believe it but when you hear about a team discussing their darkhorse National Title chances and Charlie Weiss is their coach...I think you cannot take those words lightly. I know a lot of people are going to be split on this game because of the way both teams started their seasons but from what I have seen so far, this Irish team is relentless and their 35-0 romp of Nevada at home last weekend as a -14 point favorite not only shows that their offense is finally back where it should have been a long time ago but it also shows that they have one of the nastiest defenses in the Nation (quite possibly, I know it's only been one game) which does make them a big time contender. So now the big game. Even with their 7-6 record in 2008, Notre Dame was a lot better than they got credit for seeing how they lost a whopping 38 starts in 2008 to injuries which was 15th most in I-A football for the year. This is a very disciplined group of players that is well coached and with all the pressure on Weiss and company to win some games and make progress in the National Title contention race, I think we see this team impress week in and week out. Not only did Notre Dame put up 35 points in their opener but they did it on 510.0 total yards of offense and a whopping 8.4 yards per play. Impressive. Michigan's defense returns most of their core guys this season despite having only 5 returning starters but they are going to find it hard to contain this bunch. Notre Dame rushed for 178 yards in their opener on 4.3 yards per carry and both RB Armando Allen and RB Jonas Gray were impressive. QB Jimmy Clausen has matured into a possible Heisman Trophy candidate this season as he completed 83.3% of his passes in the Nevada game, threw 4 touchdown passes on 315 passing yards and a whopping 17.5 yards per pass attempt. This team is dangerous with the deep ball and I would like to point out that Michigan lost 5 of their 9 interceptions from last season and got somewhat torched for 6.7 yards per pass attempt against the Broncos last week. Claussen was not sacked one time, he did not throw any interceptions and Notre Dame never fumbled the ball. They exploded for 21 second quarter points that put the game away early and I expect them to be just as aggressive on offense in this game. The Irish are not going to score as many points as last week but the big plays in the air are going to be there.
The Michigan Wolverines already showed what kind of backbone they really have when several players sold out Head Coach Rich Rodrigues to the media saying that he was breaking NCAA rules by practicing them too much. So what we said would happen was it was either going to bring this team closer together and create somewhat of a monster the rest of the season or it was going to derail yet another season and Rodrigues was going to be gone by the end of the year. So far, so good. Michigan opened their season with an impressive 31-7 home win over the Western Michigan Broncos as a -14 point favorite and they looked good doing it. Almost everyone is back from last year's offense that managed 28.9 points per game (10 returning starters is a lot). However, we did see two different sides to Michigan as a home underdog last season with the first being a 27-25 home win over Wisconsin as a +2 and the other being a 35-21 home loss to Michigan State as a +4 point home underdog. The only real concern heading into the season was replacing starting QB Steven Threet who transferred out of this program at the end of last year but his replacement QB Tate Forcier looked pretty damn good in the opener and he won the starting job for now at least. The Wolverines come into this game off that 31 point performance last week that saw them go for 439.0 total yards of offense on 5.6 yards per play but I don't think that's enough to keep up with Notre Dame. The Irish defense pitched a shutout last week for the first time in years and they allowed only 307.0 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play to one of the best offenses in the Nation (well smaller conference anyways). I was not impressed with the Irish's run defense because they gave up a whopping 153.0 rushing yards to Nevada on 5.3 yards per carry. Michigan's run offense was fantastic in their opener and Notre Dame is going to have to find a way to man up. I'm not worried about the secondary because they are one of the best in the NCAA. The Irish allowed Nevada to complete only 48.1% of their passes for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt while recording 2 sacks and 2 interceptions. QB Tate Forcier was named the starter this week and believe me when I say that he has no clue what he has coming. Playing against Nevada is one thing but playing against the 12th ranked pass defense in the Nation after one week of play...for a freshman...is a completely different animal. I expect Fortier to struggle in this game and even if their running game gets going, the Wolverines will need a lot more to keep up with a determined Notre Dame team. I think Michigan struggles on offense here. I am also very concerned with the fact that Michigan took 8 penalties in their opening game which cost them 72.0 total yards on the field. It's also worth mentioning that after scoring all 31 points in the first half, the Wolverines failed to score a single point after that and the second half was as lackluster as it gets when it comes to performances. Notre Dame is too aggressive and they will own the Wolverines.
This is an epic early season battle between two programs coming off some of their worst seasons ever. Both teams have high profile coaches and both teams have high expectations this season. Only one can win this game and only one can cover this spread. We all remember that 35-17 blowout win by Notre Dame in this series last year where they scored 21 first quarter points and forced 6 turnovers. However if you are a fan of upsets you will know that the underdog has won 5 of the last 7 games in this series. On a counter note, the last three meetings have been determined by an average of 27 points per game and if you can pick the winner of this game, you can bet you are going to get that win by quite a bit. For those of you who have concerns about betting on Charlie Weiss in road games, have no fear as Notre Dame is 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a road favorite. They are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite of 0.5 to 3 points and these guys are a team that made me a fortune on the road the last couple of seasons covering 7 of their last 10 road games. Alright just to refresh your memory a little bit, Michigan sucks the big one against INDEPENDENT teams going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 and the Wolverines are only 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Despite the underdog dominating this series over the years, the Irish are usually the underdog and I can tell you that Notre Dame is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Should be a good one, Irish are too good though.
Trend of the Game: Notre Dame is 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a road favorite.
Notre Dame 24, Michigan 10
East Carolina Pirates +6.5 (5 Units)
The East Carolina Pirates kicked off their 2009 campaign with a win over Appalachian State (yes the same one that beat Michigan) but it wasn't pretty and it doesn't have the fans all that riled up. Beating a I-AA team 29-24 is nothing to get excited about but a win is a win and Skip Holtz will take it. The Pirates must have all the confidence in the world coming into this game seeing how they beat this very same West Virginia team 24-3 at home last year as a +7 underdog. You have 16 returning starters from that team back again for 2009...a group that includes leading rusher RB Norman Whitley, superstar QB Patrick Pinkney, 5 of the top 6 receivers from last year are also back and most of their defensive juggernauts (7 of top 10 tacklers) are all back as well. Holtz had these guys playing for Gold last year as they finished with a 9-5 SU record on the year, the most wins in the Holtz era for sure and despite losing the Liberty Bowl to Kentucky to finish off their season, they still have a squad that can win the Conference USA Title. Anytime you have a senior squad of players, you can trust they are not going to play like deers in the headlights against upper echelon programs like West Virginia. East Carolina comes into this game off that 29 point performance against App State, a game that saw them accumulate 320.0 total yards of offense on 5.2 yards per play. The Mountaineers defense was solid against Liberty but they still allowed 299.0 total yards of offense to a I-AA team on 5.1 yards per play. Pinkney had a horrible game against Appalachian State but I expect him to rebound big time here and I expect him to expose a West Virginia defense that allowed Liberty to complete 66.7% of their passes last week for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. The Pirates also ran App State into the ground with 189 rushing yards on 5.4 yards per carry and even though the Mountaineers are good against the run, I think RB Brandon Jackson and RB Dominique Lindsay are going to have monster years. This is a very dangerous team on the ground and Pinkney can only get better. He is very mobile, he rarely takes sacks and although he looked bad last week, he is the leader of this team and his last WVU game probably means a lot to him. The Pirates took way too many penalties in their opening game and a lot of things went wrong but now it's all business and Pinkney is going to do some big things today.
The West Virginia Mountaineers are adjusting to life after QB Pat White. I don't even remember this team without White or at least RB Steve Slaton but it is what it is and the Mountaineers won their first non-White game in 33-20 fashion over Liberty of the I-AA Division. Not good but not all that bad I guess. Now the real schedule begins and we see what this team is really made of. We also probably get a good luck at Bill Stewart in charge of this team and I strongly believe that both Stewart and Rodrigues would have and will struggle without the services of White and Slaton. No wonder Richy bolted last year. My biggest concern for this team will be scoring points against some tough defenses in the Big East Conference because not only is their fearless leader now gone, but also gone are some of the top defensive players on this team and the Mountaineers return only 12 players from last season. Having said that, West Virginia struggled big time to score points the last few years averaging only 17.0 points per game last season which followed only 18.1 points per game the year before. Are the new guys going to make that much of a difference around here? Well we got a look at the new West Virginia offense with their 33 point performance last weekend. RB Noel Devine and QB Jarrett Brown both ran the show on the ground leading the team to 195.0 rushing yards on 5.7 yards per carry. Having said that, East Carolina's defense is pretty nasty as they allowed only 21.1 points per game in 2008. They allowed only 246.0 total yards of offense to Appalchian State last week on 3.4 yards per play. They also showed that teams are not going to just run all over them this season as they shut down the middle and allowed only 102.0 rushing yards on a very impressive 2.1 yards per carry. That will force Brown to put the ball in the air a lot more than he is used to and despite doing a fantastic job passing the ball last week, I think Brown is in for a rude awakening against a Pirates defense that intercepted 20 passes in 2008. They Pirates did not allow big yardage play against App State last week holding them to 5.8 yards per pass attempt and they allowed the I-AA team to complete only 56.0% of their passes. Much like East Carolina, West Virginia took a bunch of penalties in their first game and the intensity should be no different this time around. Had it not been for 17 late points by Appalachian State last week, the Pirates would have allowed only 7 points. Their defense was lights out in the first half and they also did a great job containing the Mountaineers last year. If anything the Pirates are going to make some big plays on defense and that is going to keep this game close. This defense is very experienced and they already have a taste of victory over a Mountaineers team.
Alright so the success rate has been on and off for East Carolina when it comes to playing against West Virginia but for the most part a lot of the games have been close. I remember in 2005 the Pirates came here as +22 underdogs and they lost by only 5 points. The following year they covered the +21 at home against the Mountaineers. Then came the 48-7 blowout loss in Morgantown in 2007 but the Pirates took a huge step forward last year when they finally beat the Mountaineers 24-3. How many teams since 2001 have held West Virginia to no offensive touchdowns in a game? Just one and it was East Carolina in last year's game. Sure the Pirates are 0-12 SU lifetime in Morgantown but as long as they continue to stop the run...and they showed that they can do it last year holding Pat White to only 169 total yards, they are going to keep this close. How can you not love betting on an East Carolina team that is 6-0 ATS in their last six when playing a team that has a winning record on the season. Or how about the fact that I have made tons of cash betting on this team at this price range where they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points? All-in-all the only time to bet them is as underdogs where they have covered 20 of their last 27. Why in the world would you bet on West Virginia as a home favorite? What have they done for you other than go 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games as favorites of 3.5 to 10 points? This should be a great game but in the end you have to love the Holtz and experienced ECU team combo to repeat what they did last season and continue their big season.
Trend of the Game: West Virginia is 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
East Carolina 28, West Virginia 21
UCLA Bruins +10 (10 Units)
The UCLA Bruins are out to prove me right on my theory that Tennessee is a bit overrated right now and that they the Bruins are underrated. UCLA is coming off their worst season in God knows how long as they finished with a 4-8 SU record in 2008 but Rick Neuheisel is on the right track to make this team a lot better than they were and he proved that with an impressive home win over San Diego State last week (33-14 blowout) as -18 point home favorites. If you think for one second that Neuheisel doesn't remember his coaching debut with the Bruins last year, you're dreaming. He was a +7 point underdog in the home opener last year against this very same Tennessee team and the Bruins pulled off the impossible with a 27-24 win. Can they repeat? I don't know. Are they that many points worse than last year's team? Definitely not. The Bruins return 16 players from last year's team that averaged 29.0 points per game and I think they can match the Volunteers touchdown for touchdown, tackle for tackle. This is one of the most improved teams in the NCAA this season and even though the Vols have revenge on their minds, I have no doubts UCLA can keep this game close. The Bruins dropped 33 points on SD State last week and they did it on 359.0 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play. The Vols defense was one of the best in the Nation last season and I expect the same this time around as they allowed only 83.0 total yards of offense last week for only 1.8 yards per play. Yikes. So how is UCLA going to score in this game? Well first of all RB Derrick Coleman is a beast and he is only getting better. He rushed for 291 yards last season as a freshman with 2 touchdowns and 5.4 yards per carry. In the game against SD State, Coleman managed 17.3 yards per carry on 4 carries with one big time touchdown run. As well as this defense played against a useless WKU team last week, they are not even close to being that good on the D-Line and at the Linebacker position and Coleman is going to work away in the trenches and open things up in the air. QB Kevin Prince made a triumphant return to football in his UCLA debut last week completing 62.1% of his passes for 176 passing yards, 6.1 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 2 interceptions. This is a very aggressive Tennessee defense that takes a lot of risks but I think the Bruins have enough experience on the offensive line and at the receiver positions that they can make some plays in this game. WR Taylor Embree and WR Terrence Austin are studs and as long as they can spread the field out and as long as Coleman can have success running the ball and as long as they stay away from SS Eric Berry, the Bruins will score some points and keep this game competitive.
The Tennessee Volunteers began the Lane Kiffin experiment with a brain jolting 63-7 win of Western Kentucky as -31 points home favorites but I don't know what to make of that game because the Hilltoppers are new to I-A football and they have sucked the last few seasons. This game is a lot more intense against a BCS Conference team and looking back at their recent non-conference home games of seasons past, I am not too impressed with what I see from Tennessee. In 2008 they hosted Northern Illinois as a -16 point favorite and won 13-9. They also hosted Wyoming later on in the year as a -27 and lost the game 13-7. Not a good sign for things to come if you ask me. I know the offense looked great in their opening game but you have to keep in mind that this team lost their top two rushers from the last who knows how many years as RB Arian Foster (the second leading all-time rusher at Tennessee) and RB Lennon Creer are both gone. The most experienced RB on this team is Montario Hardesty who averaged only 3.6 yards per carry last year. The Vols are also missing their top tackler from 2008, their top pass rusher from 2008 and several other key defensive members from last year's team. Alright so the Vols come into this game off a 63 point performance against WKU where just about everything went right but they are facing a very different defense this time around. Despite pounding away for 657.0 total yards of offense and 8.6 yards per play against the Hilltoppers, Tennessee knows they have it a lot harder tonight against a UCLA defense that allowed only 277.0 total yards of offense last week against SD State on only 4.4 yards per play. They have one of the best D-Lines in the PAC 10 Conference and they have some tough linebackers which means Tennessee will probably have a harder time running the ball effectively against a defense that allowed only 39.0 rushing yards last game on 2.2 yards per carry. QB Johnathon Crompton was very solid for the most part but his 4 TD/5 INT ratio last year is alarming and he got off to a bad start again this year throwing 2 interceptions against Western Kentucky despite throwing 5 touchdown passes (more than all of last season). There is no messing around against this UCLA defense. They allowed SD State to complete only 40.0% of their passes for only 5.3 yards per pass attempt and managed to bring down 3 interceptions. Crompton makes a lot of mistakes, it has cost this team in the past and if the running game does not work the way Kiffin wants it to work, he is going to no doubt ask way too much of his Senior QB which almost always results in mistakes for Crompton. This is a very interesting matchup because I really think the Bruins defense can keep them in this game and put them in a position to win. If they can make some plays and get some stops early, the Bruins offense is going to take care of the rest.
REMATCH is what this is and although the obvious choice is to take the team seeking revenge, I just don't trust Lane Kiffin beyond winning that game last week. I mean the guy is sketchy, he is overrated and beating a newly promoted I-AA team means absolutely nothing. Surprisingly enough the Bruins come into this game with a 12-12-3 lifetime record versus SEC opponents and their win against the Vols last season must have them somewhat confident. As a matter of fact, the only reason Tennessee was even close in last year's meeting is because of their 4 first half interceptions. Well things have changed a lot and I see UCLA being the ones who bring down those INT's here. UCLA has now covered five straight games versus SEC opponents (5-0 ATS) and they have covered 4 of their last 5 non-conference games. You also have to know how good UCLA has been as an underdog going 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog while covering 7 of their last 10 as road underdogs. Believe me this is where I have made money over the years. Tennessee on the other hand has covered the spread only 3 of their last 13 times as a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and they are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus PAC 10 opponents. All the signs point to another close game and I think UCLA pulls another shocker...on the road this time.
Trend of the Game: UCLA is 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus SEC opponents.
UCLA 21, Tennessee 20
North Texas Mean Green +3 (10 Units)
The Ohio Bobcats were one of the teams I decided to fade last week because I don't buy any of the hype that surrounds them on paper. A lot of experts picked this team to win the MAC Conference East which means that they are going to play well in Conference play and the rest is probably going to be a crapshoot. Well off to North Texas they go coming off that 23-16 home opening loss to Connecticut last weekend as +3.5 point home favorite. Now they have not had much time to recover and they have to fly to Texas to play another game against a very jacked up team. Things could be better. This is one of the most veteran teams in the Conference yet they have so many problems getting their act together and Frank Solich must be losing his mind. With an easy I-A game on the slate next week, the Bobcats are probably not all that focused on this game but they better prepare for a much improved North Texas team. Ohio is 5-3 ATS as a road favorite under the close eye of Frank Solich and although most of those wins were against conference, those are still impressive stats. Alright so the loss to Connecticut is not a complete disaster but it wasn't expected and now the risk of going 0-2 SU is going to setoff some alarm bells within this program. Ohio comes into this game off a lethargic effort of only 16 points against UConn that saw them amass only 247.0 total yards of offense and 4.1 yards per pass attempt. North Texas had the worst defense in the NCAA last season but they made some big time changes and should be greatly improved this year. The Mean Green was once again vulnerable to the run in their opener allowing a ton of yards on the ground but Ohio showed absolutely nothing in their running game as they rushed for 61 total yards and 1.8 yards per carry. In the air, QB Boo Jackson completed only 50.0% of his passes for 117 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions. He tried to run the ball 7 times, only 20 yards and the offense was completely ineffective under his guidance. The same can be said about QB Theo Scott so this team has a problem now. The Mean Green defense returns their top 8 tacklers from 2008 and it was noticeable in their pass defense as they allowed Ball State to complete only 44.0% of their passes for only 4.1 yards per pass attempt. The boys from North Texas were pitching a shutout at the half and it almost stayed that way but all-in-all their defense is probably the most improved in the Country coming off a season where they allowed 47.6 points per game and the only way they can prove that is to show it against the lethargic Ohio offense. The Bobcats look like the same offense that scored 20 or less points in three of their first four games in 2008 and although I don't see it staying that way for long, North Texas is on a roll defensively and I think it will be tough to stop them here. The Mean Green will shut down the passing game and force Ohio to the ground where they badly struggled against UConn.
The North Texas Mean Green are a team I would have never considered dropping money on prior to this season but how can I resist after their shocking upset of Ball State in their season opening game last Sunday? Not only does North Texas have two more days than Ohio to prepare for this game but they get open their home slate with a perfect record on the season, something they have not been able to do since the 2005 season. Todd Dodger is finally getting around to some of these kids in his third year here and it looks like the kids in this program who were brought here by Dodge, really want to play and win for him. Okay the Mean Green won't win 10 games this season but I promise you they will not lose 10 or 11 games like they have done both seasons Dodge has been here and they will likely match or surpass their two year total of 3 wins under Dodge. He has 16 returning starters on this team and replacing some of the guys who started last year is probably a good thing for this team. What I do know is that their defense will no longer be the worst in the NCAA so that should allow their offense to do a lot more. This is a big school guys and I think we see a crowd of 30 000 at the game tomorrow. The buzz around Benton says it all as their Mean Green open at home with an undefeated record. Sure the only score 20 points against Ball State but they won as a +16 underdog and they managed a whopping 512.0 total yards of offense on 6.1 yards per play. Ohio did a decent job on defense in their opener but the Bobcats have traditionally struggled against teams that love to run (UConn did it to them last week) and North Texas loves (and always has) to run. The Mean Green rushed for 296.0 yards on 5.8 yards per carry against Ball State as RB Cam Montgomery dropped 148 on the Cardinals. The Senior was outstanding in 2008 and I think he can run for 200+ yards against an Ohio defense that allowed 259 rushing yards in their opener on 5.3 yards per carry. QB Riley Dodge (Todd's son) had never completed a collegiate pass until last week when he completed 23 of 33 for 216 passing yards, 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown, 1 interception and 68 rushing yards. Impressive debut and now he heads home to do it in front of friends and family. Ohio's secondary played well against Connecticut but that's because the Huskies never really tried anything good in the air. Dodge won't hold back here guys. Dodge had to address the issue of penalties this week because the Mean Green took 9.0 penalties in their first game and they are going to be a tad bit excited to play here as underdogs. Having said that, I think Dodge is going to continue to impress. He is running the exact same offense he ran in high school and he looked damn good doing in his first ever college game. As long as North Texas sticks to the plan they are going to win this game and Montgomery is going to run for 200+ yards.
Who would have thought a game between Ohio and North Texas would be one of the most interesting of the week. Well it's not and nobody really cares but I can't wait for this one and I cannot believe the Mean Green are home underdogs. Why in the world would you put your money on Ohio knowing that they are 4-16 SU in their last 20 road openers? Todd Dodge has never won a home opener as head coach of the Mean Green and now that he has his best team yet and that most of these guys are his own recruits, it's time to win him that first home opener as head coach here. Ohio is a team I have made a lot of money betting on when it comes to non-conference games (both home and away) but as UConn showed last week they are beatable and they are also a horrendous September team going 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games played in September. It's also worth mentioning that Frank Solich usually doesn't have his guys ready to play on turf as Ohio is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games played on Field Turf and they don't seem to like this stuff. Coach Dodge was very disappointed in the 1-11 SU finish of his team last season but I say it again. He is on a full head of steam heading into this game, the Mean Green have already matched last year's win total, they did it on the road, his son is the new QB and he was outstanding against Ball State and now it's time to show how improved this program really is. This is for coach Dodge.
Trend of the Game: Ohio is 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games played in September.
North Texas 34, Ohio 24
Memphis Tigers +2 (10 Units)
The Memphis Tigers were a great fade last week but something tells me that they are going to bounce back nicely from that loss to Ole Miss and Tommy West is going to have his guys ready to battle yet another rival local team. The Tigers got off to a bad start in 2009 even though they kept things pretty close with the Rebels for the most part of the first half but it all fell apart at some point early second half (actually it was Hall's horrendous interception for a touchdown that changed the game at the very end of the first half) and the Rebels turned up the heat in a 45-14 win. All was not lost though for the Tigers because they did manage to have a very good first half on both sides of the ball and they do have some veteran players on this team that have earned All-Conference pre-season honors. It's hard to tell what kind of season this team is going to have because they have one of the toughest schedules in their conference and chances are they are going to lose close to 6-7 games but having said that Tommy West knows he has leaders on this team that are probably interested in one more Bowl Game before they leave for good. Memphis managed a putrid 269 total yards of offense in their game against Ole Miss and they did it on 3.4 yards per play. Shitty. However, Ole Miss has one of the most underrated defenses in the NCAA if you ask me. Middle Tennessee had their fair share of problems with Clemson on opening weekend allowing 37 points and 361.0 total yards of offense on 5.3 yards per play. One thing I know for sure is that if Memphis gets their ground attack going, their opponents are going down. Well Middle Tennessee allowed 202.0 rushing yards against Clemson last weekend on 4.3 yards per carry. That's a huge problem for Middle Tennesse because RB Curtis Steele ran for 90 yards (2 touchdowns) and 4.7 yards per carry while Wisconsin transfer RB Lance Smith ran for 63 yards on 10 carries. With these two pounding away on some big gains, the Tigers don't really need to do much more. QB Arkelon Hall was pretty damn good last year but he seemed like he had stage fright or something against Ole Miss and I expect a lot better from him in this game. He is a Senior and he knows this offense well. WR Duke Calhoun and WR Carlos Singleton are deep threats that Hall is going to find against a Middle Tennessee secondary that allowed a whopping 7.3 yards per pass attempt against Clemson. As long as Hall can be a lot more composed in his second game of the season, the Tigers should have no problems controlling this game from the very beginning both on the ground and in the air as they get their first win of the season.
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are a team that has made me some dough over the last couple of years but they have done it against bigger schools and they have done it as an underdog. Rick Stockstill is now in his fourth season as head coach of this team and coming off a 5-7 SU season has to be quite disappointing for him. He now has 10 returning starters on offense, this is the most talented team he has ever had and believe me when I say that they want to win this game. If the Blue Raiders somehow find a way to lose, they are going to have a tough time winning games before October and November as they have Maryland next week on the road followed by road games at North Texas and Troy. So this is their season right here and coming off that 37-14 ugly loss to the Clemson Tigers you would think the 30000+ in attendance tonight are going to be loud. I have to say that I was impressed with Middle Tennessee road win over this same Memphis team back in 2007 as +3 point underdogs but that was the team of back then and things have changed a lot since. The 2007 version of the Blue Raiders had a great offense and they did quite well against non-conference opponents. Having said that, Middle Tennessee managed 299.0 total yards of offense on 3.7 yards per play in their opener and I wouldn't be surprised to see this veteran offense score some points here as well. Memphis was exposed as a team that was going to struggle against the run this season but the only problem with that is that Middle Tennessee rushed for only 107 yards per game in 2008 on 3.1 yards per carry and in their first game of 2009 they managed only 92.0 rushing yards on 2.5 yards per carry. All three top ball carriers from last season are back but none rushed for more than 3.9 yards per carry. That's a problem because Memphis is weak up the middle and against the run but the Blue Raiders don't thave the guys to take advantage of that. The offensive line is overmatched in this game and will force QB Dwight Dasher to move the ball through the air. In 2008 he completed only 38.6% of his 44 pass attempts for 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. This season in the opener he looked ever worse completing only 47.6% of his passes for 204 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions. This Memphis defense is going to have none of that. They allowed Jevan Sneed of Ole Miss to complete only 54.5% of his passes last week, they sacked him 2 times and they had 2 interceptions off the star QB. Well you can expect Dasher to throw a lot of bad passes in this game as well because Memphis likes to come after QB's and they will smell blood from the beginning in this one. Middle Tennessee actually fumbled the ball 7 times in their opener and somehow they managed to hang on each and everytime. Not so much in this one. Memphis is very aggressive around the ball, they punch, they claw and they are ferocious which means it could be turnovers gallore for Middle Tennessee and with that veteran offense, Memphis is not going to miss chances to take the lead.
Rivalry? Not so much just yet but both teams have a ton of players who played with each other when they were younger so there is some bad blood there but otherwise this could turn into something big. I know history is not on the Memphis side in this game because they are 2-8 SU lifetime in this stadium and have not had much success in the past but head coach Tommy West is 4-4 SU versus Sun Belt Conference opponents in his Memphis coaching career. Now I have taken note over the years that fading Middle Tennessee in home openers is a good idea because this team is 1-6 SU in their last 7 home openers and the average loss is by 7 points so I would say Memphis is going to have a good chance here. For those of you who have bet on Memphis in the past you will remember that they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog of 0.5 to 3.0 points and this seems to be their sweet spot in terms of getting them going. They are also very well coached and Tommy West has them 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss the game before. Believe me Memphis is well prepared for this game. Dating back to last season Middle Tennessee has not done a good job covering spreads as they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall and I really don't see the stopping the Memphis ground attack in this game. Give me Memphis here as a doggie!
Trend of the Game: Memphis is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss.
Memphis 39, Middle Tennessee 17
Ohio State Buckeyes +6.5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The USC Trojans are my home, my blood, the team I support and the team I want my kids to play for one day. Having said that I have to keep a straight head here and it took me a while but sometime over the weekend I made my decision to fade Pete Caroll and company. It's not that I don't think this is the best team in the Country by quite a bit but it's more the fact that people in Columbus are still reeling and talking about that loss to USC on the road in 2008 and this game has been circled and marked down on calendars for quite some time now. So what if this team is using a freshman QB right? Well the same was said about Terrelle Pryor before last year's game and everyone said he was going to be fine but he came out like a deer in the headlights and nobody really expected that. QB Matt Barkley showed no signs of being a freshman in the Trojans 56-3 win on opening weekend but nothing compares to a Nationally Televised football game being called the "College Game of the Year" played on the road in front of millions to a game at home against San Jose State. One game is just not enough to tell the story and we need more samples before juding Barkely. Unfortunately time is up and before I move on, I want it to be known that I think Barkely is going to make costly mistakes in this game and it is going to cost his team in the end. The Trojans can do everything and anything better than anyone else. They scored 56 in their opener, had 621.0 total yards of offense in that game on 9.1 yards per play and nothing else needs to be said. Sure Ohio State struggled defensively against Navy but come on. They didn't care about that game and yet still allowed only 342.0 total yards of offense in that game. We all know Ohio State had trouble stopping the run but that was the infamous Navy option formation and believe me USC won't be doing any of that tonight. Barkley was very impressive in his debut as he completed 78.9% of his passes for 233 passing yards, 12.3 yards per pass attempt and 1 touchdown pass. Won't be that easy against the Buckeyes who were torched on the few passing plays they faced but only because the box was loaded. The moment of truth. Can Ohio State put enough pressure on Barkley to force mistakes? I mean he was sacked 2 times against San Jose State and he still makes young guy mistakes. It should also be noted that in their win last week, USC fumbled twice and lost both fumbles which is again a sign of inexperience in the offense. What also concerns me for Barkley and the offense is that they scored 0 points in the first quarter of their win against San Jose State and a slow start like that at the SHOE is not going to cut it. In the Big Ten Conference, you won't find a better D-Line than Ohio State's nor will you find a better secondary than the Buckeyes. The Trojans will probably want to run for 343.0 rushing yards again like they did against San Jose State but give the Buckeyes defense some respect because their D-Line is damn good. I love USC but I think Barkley is going to get caught making the wrong moves at the wrong time and that is going to throw off the USC offensive flow. Don't like the Trojans at all in this spot. This is a team that is probably going to bounce back from a loss and still win the National Championship but their lack of big time playmakers on special teams this season is also a concern because big stars shine big in games like this. What's funny is that three RB's for USC averaged more than 10.0 yards per carry in 23 combined carries last week but the key for me is the size and ability of the Ohio State defensive line that should put somewhat of a pause on USC's running game. That's the big key!
The Ohio State Buckeyes want nothing to do with the spread for this game. When word spread that they were underdogs by almost a touchdown in this game, in their own stadium, with their owns fans...some of the players took that personally and the electricity for this game is probably up dozens and dozens of notches. This is definitely the biggest game of Jim Tressel's Ohio State coaching career and a loss here would probably have him re-considering the position for years to come. I mean now that I look back at the near loss to Navy last week, something tells me Ohio State is so jacked up for this game tonight that they totally had their eyes looking up a week when playing the Midshipmen. It would make sense. USC on the other hand was out having a touchdown party at the expense of San Jose State last week but they need a piece of humble pie before this starts or they could be in for the shock of their lives. Ohio State is no joke. Their game against Navy is in the distant future right now. This is the big game. If you win this game your name is now featured as the projected BCS Bowl Champions. If you lose this game you have to go back to the drawing board for 2010 because these are losses that end seasons. Believe me the Buckeyes have talked about nothing but their 35-3 loss one year ago to this same USC team and anything short of some payback is going to be considered a failure by this team. Sure the Buckeyes did nothing all that flashy in their home opener last week scoring 31 points on 367 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play but again that was expected with all the preparations for this game of the year tonight. Would you believe USC allowed only 121 total yards of offense against San Jose State and that the Trojans (SJ State) managed only 9.0 rushing yards on a whopping 31 carries. Yup that's right this is one of the best defenses if not the best defense in the Nation and the only way to win this game for Ohio State is if Terrell Pryor is cut loose. It's a must. You can't just have guys throwing themselves at him like a piece of meat. You need some movement on the edge, some screen passes, something deep, some trickery. Whatever you want to call, Pryor has to be involved. He was great in the game last week despite the late interceptions as he completed 66.7% of his passes for 174 passing yards, 8.3 yards per pass attempt with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. This kid was scared last year but he looks determined to shut the critics up. What I think is the most important thing to remember is that USC's defensive success is often based on their pass rush and their speed up the middle. Well Pryor was tagged for no sacks last week and USC is going to have a tough time catching him and trying to add to their total of 5 sacks last season. USC is also very good at punching away the ball, they tackle to hurt you and they had two fumble recoveries in their opener. Having said all that I think Jim Tressell is going to have a statement game for his program. He has never won Big Ten Conference coach of the year awards and a win here would probably lock that up for good. What Pryor also needs is someone to emerge from the land of nowhere and lead this team to some good things. RB Brandon Saine and RB Dan Herron ran well in the first game and Terrelle Pryor has already decided that his big long target this year is going to be WR Dane Sanzenbacher (who is not that big). Pryor is not going to disappoint here guys, mark my words.
My story is as follows. I am currently in the process of moving to Columbus, Ohio in the next few weeks for business. I spent the better part of last week there and learned quite a bit about the Buckeyes. The one thing I have learned the most though is that YOU HAVE TO GIVE THE BUCKEYES A CHANCE HERE! Last year as a fluster and this year they are prepared. I think enough is enough, it's time for a change. According to what I have read about, USC leads this series lifetime and they have won six straight games versus the Buckeyes. What's even more impressive for those still taking the Trojans in this game is the fact that they are 8-0 SU in their last 8 non-conference road games versus BCS conferences. Does anyone remember the Texas game back in 2005 when everyone said the Longhorns would come in and do some serious damage? Well that was right but the game was close and the Buckeyes handled business well. If you like stats you will be interested to know that OHIO STATE IS 46-1 SU IN THEIR LAST 47 NON-CONFERENCE HOME GAMES with their only loss to Texas and should they win, this place is going to erupt. USC has always dominated Big Ten Conference teams and they have covered the spread in 8 straight road games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Where things go bad is when we talk about the Trojans and how they have covered the spread in only 1 of their last 5 games as a road favorite. Ohio State is a whopping 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games versus PAC 10 opponents and there is no better time to get rid of those home demons than now. Anyways ladies and gentlemen enjoy the game, it should be a good one and I am going to watch, make some cash and come back in here to celebrate a Buckeyes program changing win. Well maybe not program changing but this is huge, this is a huge burden off their backs if they can win and I would think the path to the National Championship is wide open after this. I THINK OHIO STATE DOES IT!!! Upset and play of the week baby!
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 46-1 SU in their last 47 home games versus non-conference opponents.
Ohio State 27, USC 25
:toast:
WEEK 2 RECAP
Clemson +5 ***PLAY OF THE NIGHT***
Colorado -3.5
North Carolina -3.5
Indiana -1.5
Stanford +3
Notre Dame -3.5
East Carolina +6.5
UCLA +10
North Texas +3
Memphis +2
Ohio State +6.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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