MistaFlava's 2008 CFB Record: 37-38-1 ATS (-287.30 Units)
Crashed and burned last week, putting me down some big time cash for the year but luckily I am doing well in NFL and that has cut the losses to a certain point. My goal for the season is pretty much impossible. My money management once again sucked, although thats the way I bet and will always bet. I have won huge money in the past and lost huge money in the past. You can argue all day that my style is just wrong but I like to go big and i like to go strong on my plays and I will always stand by that.
Bowl Season is just around the corner and I have done very well in the past. Lets get this done and make some of that cash back.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 4-6 ATS (+3.20 Units)
Week 2: 3-3 ATS (-12.50 Units)
Week 3: 2-3-1 ATS (-29.00 Units)
Week 4: 3-4 ATS (+7.00 Units)
Week 5: 5-2 ATS (-16.00 Units)
Week 6: 5-3 ATS (+27.50 Units)
Week 7: 0-1 ATS (-11.00 Units)
Week 8: ---No Plays---
Week 9: 5-4 ATS (-64.50 Units)
Week 10: 1-1 ATS (-6.00 Units)
Week 11: ---No Plays---
Week 12: 4-4 ATS (+7.50 Units)
Week 13: 0-1 ATS (-55.00 Units)
Week 14: 5-5 ATS (-137.50 Units)
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. I am due for a huge week. Good Luck to all this week!
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The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders are playing their best football of the season right now so why not back these guys while they are winning? The Blue Raiders come into this game having won three straight games (only one on the road) and going 2-1 ATS in those games. They beat UL Monroe at home by 3, they beat Western Kentucky on the road by 11 as a -1 point road favorite and they are coming off a 39 point home win over North Texas last week which should have them confident and ready to make some big plays in this game. You also have to keep in mind who Middle Tennessee has faced on the road this season. They went to Kentucky earlier this season and lost by only 6 points. They also went to Louisville and lost by 19 points and then went to Mississippi State and lose by only 9 points. So despite the road losses this season, these guys have shown that they are battle ready and tested away from home. Middle Tennessee State comes into this game averaging 32.3 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to do that on 390.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.0 yards per play in those games. They are going up against a horrendous Louisiana Lafayette defense that has allowed a whopping 41.7 points per game in their last three games and that have allowed 463.3 total yards of offense and 6.9 yards per play in those games. WOW that probably one of the worst defenses in the Nation the last three games. On the ground, RB Phillip Tanner is not a superstar back but he does have 13 rushing touchdowns and the team averages 142.7 rushing yards per game their last three games for 4.1 yards per carry in those games. Expect a huge game from Tanner as the Cajuns defense has allowed 240.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and 6.0 yards per carry. That should help open things up in the air for QB Joe Craddock who has completed 59.8% of his passes the last three games for 8.1 yards per pass attempt and 3 interceptions (risk and reward theory). The Cajuns defense has allowed their last three opponent QB's to complete 63.0% of their passes for 8.3 yards per pass attempt and we can expect Craddock to hookup with WR Melcom Beyah on some deep routes. The Cajuns secondary has done little to nothing the last three games allowing all that yardage and coming up with only 1 interception in those games. They have 4 sacks in their last three games but Craddock has good pocket presence and has been sacked only 4 times in his last three games. I am a big fan of backing teams that have discipline and the Blue Raiders have shown good discipline their last three games taking only 4.3 penalties per game in those games. This is a team that does not waste time taking shots downfield and they have won their last three games by scoring a whopping 25.4 points per first half in those games giving them leads they can manage and hold. The Cajuns defense has allowed 19.7 points per first half in their last three games and something tells me they are in trouble in this one. Louisiana Lafayette just doesn't have the defense to win a shootout!
The Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns are playing horrendous football right now and there is no better time to fade them then right now. I don't get why the public is already on this team seeing how they have lost three straight games and have not shown signs of shedding their current slump. The Cajuns are coming off the biggest game of their season against Troy, a game they got completely embarassed in, going down 48-3 to the Sun Belt Conference Champions. Prior to that game, Louisiana Lafayette lost at home against UTEP as -13.5 point favorite and followed that up with an 11 point road loss to Florida Atlantic as a +1.5 road underdog. My guess as to why they are favored by so much in this game is that oddsmakers are looking back on their big home wins earlier this season and taking those into account. The Cajuns beat Kent State at home by 17, they beat Arkansas State at home by 3 and they beat Florida International at home by 29 points earlier this season. Big deal! Yes they are 3-1 ATS at home this season but with their season all but done and with the team coming off such a huge loss, I just don't think they can get things done here. Louisiana Lafayette comes into this game averaging only 18.7 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to do that on 360.3 total yards of offense per game in those games on 5.7 yards per play. Middle Tennessee's defense has surprisingly stepped up their game in recent weeks allowing only 14.7 points per game in their last three games. In those games, they allowed only 364.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play which has me thinking this defense is ready for just about anything right now. The Cajuns get most of their yardage on the ground with RB Tyrell Fenroy who is already at 1300 rushing yards this season with 17 rushing touchdowns which is impressive. Having said that, he has to go up against a Blue Raiders defense that has allowed 149.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.0 yards per carry in those games. QB Matt Desormeaux is the leader of this team (he is almost at 1000 rushing yards himself for the season) and this team only goes as far as his success. The Cajuns have used several different players at the QB position this season and they come into this game having completed 61.6% of their passes the last three games for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. They are going up against a Middle Tennessee defense that has allowed their last three opponent QB's to complete 62.0% of their passes for 6.5 yards per pass attempt which is not all that bad but not all that good at the same time. Having said that, the Blue Raiders defense has been on fire as of late because of their abilities to attack QB's and force mistakes. They have a whopping (and Nation leading over the last three games) 15 sacks in their last three games to go along with 2 interceptions. I have to mention right now that the Louisiana Lafayette QB's have not been playing well at all combining for a whopping 8 interceptions thrown in their last three games to go along with 5 sacks allowed in their last three games. Not only are the Blue Raiders aggressive on the pass rush but they have also managed to recover 4 fumbles in their last three games, most of those the direct result of some aggressive tackling by the linebackers and defensive backs. Unlike the discipline shown the last three games by Middle Tennessee State, the Cajuns are averaging a whopping 9.0 penalties per game in their last three games which has cost them 63.3 yards of penalties per game. The Cajuns just don't have what it takes to keep up in this game as they average only 6.6 points per first half in their last three games compared to Middle Tennessee State's 25.4 points per first half. I just don't get where the hell this line is coming from and I don't see what I am missing in this one. I don't trust this team at all and the Blue Raiders are very confident on the defensive side of things right now.
You really have to pay attention to patterns in this Conference and seeing how the road team has won 5 of the last 7 games in this series straight up, I would like to think the Blue Raiders have some kind of edge in this game. You have to keep in mind that neither team can win the Conference making this game completely useless in terms of meaning. Or is it? Not really useless. I say that because both teams are one win away from being Bowl Eligible (not that either would get into a Bowl Game but you never know) and that should make things pretty interesting. It also guarantees that neither team is going to give up in this game and both teams will play to win no matter what the deficit. The only knock on Middle Tennessee State is their record in conference play as they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played against Sun Belt Conference teams. However, they have been good coming off wins with a 10-3-1 ATS record in their last 14 games that follow a straight up win. Louisiana Lafayette on the other hand have covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games overall but they are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and only 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games versus teams with losing road records and it is worth mentioning right now that the underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five games in this series. I like the Blue Raiders to keep that trend going even on Seniors Night.
Trend of the Game: Middle Tennessee State is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games that follow a straight up win.
Middle Tennessee 34, Louisiana Lafayette 32
The Louisville Cardinals are falling and they are falling hard this season. Who would have known before the season started? I mean the core of the team looked pretty damn good and QB Hunter Cantwell was supposed to be just as good as QB Brian Brohm but things never really panned out for coach Kragthorpe and his boys and now this once BCS Contending team is one more loss away from completely missing out on the Bowl Season. So the question now is how much do they want this game and how badly do they want to play in the post-season? You and me both know someone is going to invite these guys to a Bowl if they become eligible. Having said that, if you can beat Cincinnati or West Virginia at home, I don't know how you can go on the road and beat the red hot Scarlet Knights. The Cardinals have now lost four straight games and have gone 0-4 ATS in those games and those losses have been to Syracuse on the road by 7, to Pittsburgh on the road by 34, to Cincinnati at home by 8 and to West Virginia at home by 14 points. The Cardinals come into this game averaging only 16.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done that on 365.7 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play in those games. For an offense that is struggling, playing against Rutgers is not a good things seeing how the Scarlet Knights defense has allowed only 12.0 points per game in their last three games and they have allowed only 263.7 total yards of offense per game in those games on 4.6 yards per play. On the ground, the Cardinals have run the ball but not run it all that well averaging 138.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 3.9 yards per carry in those games. Their only hope in this game is actually to run the ball because Rutgers has allowed 142.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.2 yards per carry but how much can you run the ball when your offense is setup to pass, pass and pass some more? On that note, in the air the Cardinals will have to do with Cantwell completing only 54.2% of his passes the last three games for 5.7 yards per pass attempt (what happened to the big passing plays for this team?). Making things worse here is the fact that the Rutgers secondary is playing with fire as they have allowed their last three opponents to complete only 53.5% of their passes for only 5.1 yards per pass attempt. The Rutgers pass rush has been dominant the last three games as they have recorded a whopping 10 sacks in their last three games and get to go up against a Louisville offensive line that has allowed 7 sacks in their last three games. Cantwell has thrown 6 interceptions in his last three games and he is going to have to deal with this Rutgers secondary that has 3 interceptions in their last three games. Louisville has also been a disaster when it comes to holding onto the ball as they have lost 6 fumbles in their last three games and will have to once again face a Rutgers defense that has been a turnover forcing machine having taken away (forced and recovered a fumble) 6 times in their last three games. That's some big time plays by a defense that got demolished by opponents earlier this season. Unless this Louisville offense can start doing something they have not done in more than a month now I just don't see how they are going to get things going now against a defense that has forced 3.0 turnovers per game in their last three games and that average 3.3 sacks per game in their last three games. Rutgers is at home, they are going to a Bowl Game and this defense wants revenge for the 41 points they allowed to the Cardinals on the road last season.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have sure as hell turned their season around since starting with three consecutive losses to Fresno State at home, North Carolina at home and Navy on the road. The 0-3 SU start was as embarassing as it gets for everyone associated with this program because of how this team fared the last few seasons. If you thought that was bad, things only got worse after Rutgers won their first game of the season (versus I-AA Morgan State) because the Scarlet Knights went on to lose two more I-A games losing to West Virginia by 7 points on the road and the travelling to Cincinnati and losing by 3 points. Their first win against a I-A team did not come until Week 8 when the Scarlet Knights managed to knock Connecticut at home by a final score of 12-10. The Scarlet Knights have not lost since beating Pittsburgh, Syracuse, South Florida and Army and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games since the win over Morgan State. Rutgers comes into this game averaging a whopping 38.0 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done by also averaging a whopping 475.0 total yards of offense per game on 7.0 yards per play in those games. Wow what a turnaround from earlier this season. That won't go down well for the Cardinals and their horrendous defense that has allowed 34.7 points per game in their last three games and that has allowed 408.0 total yards of offense per game in those games for 6.8 yards per play. Rutgers should have a field day in this one. On the ground, Rutgers has found their new Ray Rice as RB's Kordell Young, Jourdan Brooks and outstanding freshman Joe Martinek have led the team to 165.3 rushing yards per game the last three games on 4.8 yards per carry in those games. The Cardinals defensive line is mashed up and they have allowed their last three opponents to rush for 199.3 rushing yards per game in those games and a whopping 5.6 yards per carry. This should make things that much easier for QB Mike Teel who really needs all the help he can always get. For a guy that struggled his entire career to complete passes (including the start of this season), Teel has benefited from this new offense and has completed 68.0% of his passes the last three games for a crazy 9.3 yards per pass attempt and a few risky throws here and there. That's fine by me because the Louisville defense has allowed their last three opponents to complete 55.4% of their passes in their last three games for 8.5 yards per pass attempt which means their secondary is really struggling to keep up. If you want things put into a bit more of a perspective, look no further than the fact that Louisville has 0 sacks in their last three games and have only 1 interception in those games. If you give Teel time to figure things out, he is not that bad of a QB and he will make you pay with his throws downfield to experienced receivers. Sure he has thrown 4 interceptions in his last three games but that's his style (throwing interceptions) and taking risks has always been a part of his game. If he gets the protection and the time he needs in the pocket, he can be a very accurate passer as he has shown the last three games. The Cardinals are just not forcing enough turnovers to give their offense a chance as they have recovered only 2 fumbles the last three games and if you can't force the other team to make mistakes you are not going to win football games. Rutgers is averaging 19.3 points per first half in their last three games and if they can get off to another start like that in this one, let me tell you this game is going to get nasty. Rutgers to the bank.
What's the deal with anyone backing Louisville in this game? Everyone on this team has given up on the season. The Seniors were embarassed in their final home game last week and I don't know that the players trust coach Kragthorpe after going through what they did in 2008. Yes this is the last Thursday Night Football game of the season no National TV and traditionally this has been war for better positioning in the Bowl Games but this time around Rutgers can pretty much control Louisville's Bowl fate and if that's not motivation enough for the most confident team in college football, I don't really know what is. Can you imagine what would have been had Rutgers won easy games against Navy, Fresno State and maybe one of their rough road games? Had they played this way all season we would be talking about a Rutgers team fighting for the Big East Championship right now. Although Louisville is 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming off a bye week, that does not take away from the fact that they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a double digit loss at home (obviously a dejected team right now) or the fact that they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games. Rutgers on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in their last six Big East Conference games and it looks like their are making one heck of a late season push here. SLAUGHTER TIME!
Trend of the Game: Rutgers is 5-1 ATS in their last six Big East Conference games.
Rutgers 44, Louisville 17
Here we go with yet another Conference Championship rematch from last season. There has been so much talk about how Texas deserves to be in this game and not the Sooners that you can't help but think that Oklahoma is a bit pissed off about the disrespect and they will probably come out in this game with some bad things on their minds. Missouri was supposed to pull the upset in this game about a year ago but instead they were demolished to the tune of a 38-17 loss as +3 point underdogs. Has that much changed this season that they should now be +17 point underdogs? Maybe. Watching some Missouri games this season you can tell something is missing and you can tell they just can't stop powerhouse offenses like Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma. All you have to do is take a look back at their 56-31 road loss to the Longhorns this season to realize that this team will fold when the other offense can score points. Missouri has been a good team to bet on after losing a game straight up and they have been good in neutral site games covering 7 of their last 9 played on a neutral site. Having said that, they are coming off a loss to Kansas on a neutral site and they have to play an Oklahoma team that has too much to prove with all the controversy surrounding who should really be in this title game. Stoops will not accept anything but a huge win for yet another Big 12 Championship this season.
Trend of the Game: Missouri is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
Oklahoma 68, Missouri 21
Crashed and burned last week, putting me down some big time cash for the year but luckily I am doing well in NFL and that has cut the losses to a certain point. My goal for the season is pretty much impossible. My money management once again sucked, although thats the way I bet and will always bet. I have won huge money in the past and lost huge money in the past. You can argue all day that my style is just wrong but I like to go big and i like to go strong on my plays and I will always stand by that.
Bowl Season is just around the corner and I have done very well in the past. Lets get this done and make some of that cash back.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 4-6 ATS (+3.20 Units)
Week 2: 3-3 ATS (-12.50 Units)
Week 3: 2-3-1 ATS (-29.00 Units)
Week 4: 3-4 ATS (+7.00 Units)
Week 5: 5-2 ATS (-16.00 Units)
Week 6: 5-3 ATS (+27.50 Units)
Week 7: 0-1 ATS (-11.00 Units)
Week 8: ---No Plays---
Week 9: 5-4 ATS (-64.50 Units)
Week 10: 1-1 ATS (-6.00 Units)
Week 11: ---No Plays---
Week 12: 4-4 ATS (+7.50 Units)
Week 13: 0-1 ATS (-55.00 Units)
Week 14: 5-5 ATS (-137.50 Units)
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. I am due for a huge week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Wednesday, December 3
View attachment 5936 Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +5 (5 Units) View attachment 5934
View attachment 5936 Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +5 (5 Units) View attachment 5934
The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders are playing their best football of the season right now so why not back these guys while they are winning? The Blue Raiders come into this game having won three straight games (only one on the road) and going 2-1 ATS in those games. They beat UL Monroe at home by 3, they beat Western Kentucky on the road by 11 as a -1 point road favorite and they are coming off a 39 point home win over North Texas last week which should have them confident and ready to make some big plays in this game. You also have to keep in mind who Middle Tennessee has faced on the road this season. They went to Kentucky earlier this season and lost by only 6 points. They also went to Louisville and lost by 19 points and then went to Mississippi State and lose by only 9 points. So despite the road losses this season, these guys have shown that they are battle ready and tested away from home. Middle Tennessee State comes into this game averaging 32.3 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to do that on 390.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.0 yards per play in those games. They are going up against a horrendous Louisiana Lafayette defense that has allowed a whopping 41.7 points per game in their last three games and that have allowed 463.3 total yards of offense and 6.9 yards per play in those games. WOW that probably one of the worst defenses in the Nation the last three games. On the ground, RB Phillip Tanner is not a superstar back but he does have 13 rushing touchdowns and the team averages 142.7 rushing yards per game their last three games for 4.1 yards per carry in those games. Expect a huge game from Tanner as the Cajuns defense has allowed 240.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and 6.0 yards per carry. That should help open things up in the air for QB Joe Craddock who has completed 59.8% of his passes the last three games for 8.1 yards per pass attempt and 3 interceptions (risk and reward theory). The Cajuns defense has allowed their last three opponent QB's to complete 63.0% of their passes for 8.3 yards per pass attempt and we can expect Craddock to hookup with WR Melcom Beyah on some deep routes. The Cajuns secondary has done little to nothing the last three games allowing all that yardage and coming up with only 1 interception in those games. They have 4 sacks in their last three games but Craddock has good pocket presence and has been sacked only 4 times in his last three games. I am a big fan of backing teams that have discipline and the Blue Raiders have shown good discipline their last three games taking only 4.3 penalties per game in those games. This is a team that does not waste time taking shots downfield and they have won their last three games by scoring a whopping 25.4 points per first half in those games giving them leads they can manage and hold. The Cajuns defense has allowed 19.7 points per first half in their last three games and something tells me they are in trouble in this one. Louisiana Lafayette just doesn't have the defense to win a shootout!
The Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns are playing horrendous football right now and there is no better time to fade them then right now. I don't get why the public is already on this team seeing how they have lost three straight games and have not shown signs of shedding their current slump. The Cajuns are coming off the biggest game of their season against Troy, a game they got completely embarassed in, going down 48-3 to the Sun Belt Conference Champions. Prior to that game, Louisiana Lafayette lost at home against UTEP as -13.5 point favorite and followed that up with an 11 point road loss to Florida Atlantic as a +1.5 road underdog. My guess as to why they are favored by so much in this game is that oddsmakers are looking back on their big home wins earlier this season and taking those into account. The Cajuns beat Kent State at home by 17, they beat Arkansas State at home by 3 and they beat Florida International at home by 29 points earlier this season. Big deal! Yes they are 3-1 ATS at home this season but with their season all but done and with the team coming off such a huge loss, I just don't think they can get things done here. Louisiana Lafayette comes into this game averaging only 18.7 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to do that on 360.3 total yards of offense per game in those games on 5.7 yards per play. Middle Tennessee's defense has surprisingly stepped up their game in recent weeks allowing only 14.7 points per game in their last three games. In those games, they allowed only 364.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play which has me thinking this defense is ready for just about anything right now. The Cajuns get most of their yardage on the ground with RB Tyrell Fenroy who is already at 1300 rushing yards this season with 17 rushing touchdowns which is impressive. Having said that, he has to go up against a Blue Raiders defense that has allowed 149.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.0 yards per carry in those games. QB Matt Desormeaux is the leader of this team (he is almost at 1000 rushing yards himself for the season) and this team only goes as far as his success. The Cajuns have used several different players at the QB position this season and they come into this game having completed 61.6% of their passes the last three games for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. They are going up against a Middle Tennessee defense that has allowed their last three opponent QB's to complete 62.0% of their passes for 6.5 yards per pass attempt which is not all that bad but not all that good at the same time. Having said that, the Blue Raiders defense has been on fire as of late because of their abilities to attack QB's and force mistakes. They have a whopping (and Nation leading over the last three games) 15 sacks in their last three games to go along with 2 interceptions. I have to mention right now that the Louisiana Lafayette QB's have not been playing well at all combining for a whopping 8 interceptions thrown in their last three games to go along with 5 sacks allowed in their last three games. Not only are the Blue Raiders aggressive on the pass rush but they have also managed to recover 4 fumbles in their last three games, most of those the direct result of some aggressive tackling by the linebackers and defensive backs. Unlike the discipline shown the last three games by Middle Tennessee State, the Cajuns are averaging a whopping 9.0 penalties per game in their last three games which has cost them 63.3 yards of penalties per game. The Cajuns just don't have what it takes to keep up in this game as they average only 6.6 points per first half in their last three games compared to Middle Tennessee State's 25.4 points per first half. I just don't get where the hell this line is coming from and I don't see what I am missing in this one. I don't trust this team at all and the Blue Raiders are very confident on the defensive side of things right now.
You really have to pay attention to patterns in this Conference and seeing how the road team has won 5 of the last 7 games in this series straight up, I would like to think the Blue Raiders have some kind of edge in this game. You have to keep in mind that neither team can win the Conference making this game completely useless in terms of meaning. Or is it? Not really useless. I say that because both teams are one win away from being Bowl Eligible (not that either would get into a Bowl Game but you never know) and that should make things pretty interesting. It also guarantees that neither team is going to give up in this game and both teams will play to win no matter what the deficit. The only knock on Middle Tennessee State is their record in conference play as they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played against Sun Belt Conference teams. However, they have been good coming off wins with a 10-3-1 ATS record in their last 14 games that follow a straight up win. Louisiana Lafayette on the other hand have covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games overall but they are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and only 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games versus teams with losing road records and it is worth mentioning right now that the underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five games in this series. I like the Blue Raiders to keep that trend going even on Seniors Night.
Trend of the Game: Middle Tennessee State is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games that follow a straight up win.
Middle Tennessee 34, Louisiana Lafayette 32
Thursday, December 4
View attachment 5935 Rutgers Scarlet Knights -10.5 (5 Units) View attachment 5939
View attachment 5935 Rutgers Scarlet Knights -10.5 (5 Units) View attachment 5939
The Louisville Cardinals are falling and they are falling hard this season. Who would have known before the season started? I mean the core of the team looked pretty damn good and QB Hunter Cantwell was supposed to be just as good as QB Brian Brohm but things never really panned out for coach Kragthorpe and his boys and now this once BCS Contending team is one more loss away from completely missing out on the Bowl Season. So the question now is how much do they want this game and how badly do they want to play in the post-season? You and me both know someone is going to invite these guys to a Bowl if they become eligible. Having said that, if you can beat Cincinnati or West Virginia at home, I don't know how you can go on the road and beat the red hot Scarlet Knights. The Cardinals have now lost four straight games and have gone 0-4 ATS in those games and those losses have been to Syracuse on the road by 7, to Pittsburgh on the road by 34, to Cincinnati at home by 8 and to West Virginia at home by 14 points. The Cardinals come into this game averaging only 16.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done that on 365.7 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play in those games. For an offense that is struggling, playing against Rutgers is not a good things seeing how the Scarlet Knights defense has allowed only 12.0 points per game in their last three games and they have allowed only 263.7 total yards of offense per game in those games on 4.6 yards per play. On the ground, the Cardinals have run the ball but not run it all that well averaging 138.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 3.9 yards per carry in those games. Their only hope in this game is actually to run the ball because Rutgers has allowed 142.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.2 yards per carry but how much can you run the ball when your offense is setup to pass, pass and pass some more? On that note, in the air the Cardinals will have to do with Cantwell completing only 54.2% of his passes the last three games for 5.7 yards per pass attempt (what happened to the big passing plays for this team?). Making things worse here is the fact that the Rutgers secondary is playing with fire as they have allowed their last three opponents to complete only 53.5% of their passes for only 5.1 yards per pass attempt. The Rutgers pass rush has been dominant the last three games as they have recorded a whopping 10 sacks in their last three games and get to go up against a Louisville offensive line that has allowed 7 sacks in their last three games. Cantwell has thrown 6 interceptions in his last three games and he is going to have to deal with this Rutgers secondary that has 3 interceptions in their last three games. Louisville has also been a disaster when it comes to holding onto the ball as they have lost 6 fumbles in their last three games and will have to once again face a Rutgers defense that has been a turnover forcing machine having taken away (forced and recovered a fumble) 6 times in their last three games. That's some big time plays by a defense that got demolished by opponents earlier this season. Unless this Louisville offense can start doing something they have not done in more than a month now I just don't see how they are going to get things going now against a defense that has forced 3.0 turnovers per game in their last three games and that average 3.3 sacks per game in their last three games. Rutgers is at home, they are going to a Bowl Game and this defense wants revenge for the 41 points they allowed to the Cardinals on the road last season.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have sure as hell turned their season around since starting with three consecutive losses to Fresno State at home, North Carolina at home and Navy on the road. The 0-3 SU start was as embarassing as it gets for everyone associated with this program because of how this team fared the last few seasons. If you thought that was bad, things only got worse after Rutgers won their first game of the season (versus I-AA Morgan State) because the Scarlet Knights went on to lose two more I-A games losing to West Virginia by 7 points on the road and the travelling to Cincinnati and losing by 3 points. Their first win against a I-A team did not come until Week 8 when the Scarlet Knights managed to knock Connecticut at home by a final score of 12-10. The Scarlet Knights have not lost since beating Pittsburgh, Syracuse, South Florida and Army and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games since the win over Morgan State. Rutgers comes into this game averaging a whopping 38.0 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done by also averaging a whopping 475.0 total yards of offense per game on 7.0 yards per play in those games. Wow what a turnaround from earlier this season. That won't go down well for the Cardinals and their horrendous defense that has allowed 34.7 points per game in their last three games and that has allowed 408.0 total yards of offense per game in those games for 6.8 yards per play. Rutgers should have a field day in this one. On the ground, Rutgers has found their new Ray Rice as RB's Kordell Young, Jourdan Brooks and outstanding freshman Joe Martinek have led the team to 165.3 rushing yards per game the last three games on 4.8 yards per carry in those games. The Cardinals defensive line is mashed up and they have allowed their last three opponents to rush for 199.3 rushing yards per game in those games and a whopping 5.6 yards per carry. This should make things that much easier for QB Mike Teel who really needs all the help he can always get. For a guy that struggled his entire career to complete passes (including the start of this season), Teel has benefited from this new offense and has completed 68.0% of his passes the last three games for a crazy 9.3 yards per pass attempt and a few risky throws here and there. That's fine by me because the Louisville defense has allowed their last three opponents to complete 55.4% of their passes in their last three games for 8.5 yards per pass attempt which means their secondary is really struggling to keep up. If you want things put into a bit more of a perspective, look no further than the fact that Louisville has 0 sacks in their last three games and have only 1 interception in those games. If you give Teel time to figure things out, he is not that bad of a QB and he will make you pay with his throws downfield to experienced receivers. Sure he has thrown 4 interceptions in his last three games but that's his style (throwing interceptions) and taking risks has always been a part of his game. If he gets the protection and the time he needs in the pocket, he can be a very accurate passer as he has shown the last three games. The Cardinals are just not forcing enough turnovers to give their offense a chance as they have recovered only 2 fumbles the last three games and if you can't force the other team to make mistakes you are not going to win football games. Rutgers is averaging 19.3 points per first half in their last three games and if they can get off to another start like that in this one, let me tell you this game is going to get nasty. Rutgers to the bank.
What's the deal with anyone backing Louisville in this game? Everyone on this team has given up on the season. The Seniors were embarassed in their final home game last week and I don't know that the players trust coach Kragthorpe after going through what they did in 2008. Yes this is the last Thursday Night Football game of the season no National TV and traditionally this has been war for better positioning in the Bowl Games but this time around Rutgers can pretty much control Louisville's Bowl fate and if that's not motivation enough for the most confident team in college football, I don't really know what is. Can you imagine what would have been had Rutgers won easy games against Navy, Fresno State and maybe one of their rough road games? Had they played this way all season we would be talking about a Rutgers team fighting for the Big East Championship right now. Although Louisville is 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming off a bye week, that does not take away from the fact that they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a double digit loss at home (obviously a dejected team right now) or the fact that they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games. Rutgers on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in their last six Big East Conference games and it looks like their are making one heck of a late season push here. SLAUGHTER TIME!
Trend of the Game: Rutgers is 5-1 ATS in their last six Big East Conference games.
Rutgers 44, Louisville 17
View attachment 5931 East Carolina Pirates +13 (5 Units) View attachment 5941
The East Carolina Pirates really have their work cutout for them in this game and I say that because this is the one and only Conference Championship Game in I-A college football where the team with the better record on the season gets to host the game itself. There is no neutral ground here and no mercy on the visiting team. So right away we need to evaluate how the Pirates have done away from home and if they have managed to matchup well with some of the teams they have visited. For starters, the Pirates were only 3-3 SU on the road this season (compared to 4-1 SU at home) and they actually went 0-6 ATS in those games, failing to cover the spread every single time. However, it is worth mentioning that two of those losses ATS and SU were against Virginia and NC State where for some reason East Carolina was favored by almost a touchdown in each road game. You can talk about their road woes on the ATS front all you want but it's important to understand that only once this season was this team the underdog on the road and that was a 21-3 loss to Southern Mississippi. The Pirates have won 5 of their last 6 football games and are playing some damn good football right now. East Carolina comes into this game averaging 24.3 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done on 336.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.0 yards per play in those games which is not all that good. Having said that, Tulsa's defense has been as horrendous as it gets the last three games as they have allowed 37.3 points per game in those games and have allowed 436.7 total yards of offense per game on 6.6 yards per play in those games. East Carolina should have no problems moving the ball in this game. On the ground, RB Norman Whitley has run the ball well but as a team these guys have struggled rushing for only 117.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on only 3.1 yards per carry. Having said that, Whitley is capable of huge games and he gets to face a Tulsa defense that has allowed 171.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.8 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Patrick Pinkney really wants this game and he comes in having completed 65.2% of his passes the last three games for 7.4 yards per pass attempt in those games. I don't know what the deal is with the Tulsa defense but I can tell you right now that they are as porous as it gets and they have allowed their last three opponents to complete 64.1% of their passes for a whopping 8.7 yards per pass attempt which should allow Pinkney to hookup with his favorite deep target TE Davon Drew or WR Dwayne Harris. Piinkney has thrown 4 interceptions in his last three games and has made some bad decisions but Tulsa's secondary does not have a single interception in their last three games despite the 4 sacks recorded by their defense (East Carolina has allowed only 2 sacks in those games). The key to this game for the Pirates is to hold on to the damn ball as they have lost 4 fumbles in their last three games while the Golden Hurricane have recovered three fumbles (without forcing any of them) in their last three games overall. The Pirates have to come out of the gates early and set the tone in this one because we all know Tulsa is going to put up some big points in this game and we know it won't take long for them to get on the board once they get things going. The Golden Hurricane have allowed 23.3 points per first half in their last three games so the opportunity for East Carolina to get that lead and make it big is going to be there...believe me. You must not forget that East Carolina did beat both West Virginia and Virginia Tech (ACC Championship finalists this season). This is a well coached team, they have tons of experience and they are the one CUSA team that is very capable of knocking off Tulsa in this game on the road. I think the Pirates shock a lot of people in this game.
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have it all a little bit too easy and I cannot remember the last time they lost a game. Having said that, somehow this team did lose two games this season with one of those being a 30-23 road loss to Bobby Petrino and the Arkansas Razorbacks and the other being a 70-30 blowout loss at Houston just a few weeks ago. Interestingly enough those two losses came in consecutive fashion and that was quite shocking for a team that has played so well at home but has been shoddy at best on the road this season. Seeing how this is a home game, it has to be mentioned that Tulsa is a perfect 5-0 ATS at home this season and they are just a completely different team when playing here. Having said that, they have not played a single Bowl caliber team at home this season beating teams such as New Mexico, Central Arkansas, Rice, UTEP, Central Florida and Tulane. Like I said, none of those teams will even come close to making a Bowl Game and East Carolina could easily beat all those teams. That's the thing with Tulsa, I don't know that they have faced a tough enough schedule at home to be considered a proven team. Tulsa comes into this game averaging 41.3 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to do that on 536.7 total yards of offense per game in those games and 6.7 yards per play. That's some crazy good offense. That also means that the honus is on the East Carolina defense to come up with some plays in this game or risk getting blown out of the water. The Pirates defense has allowed only 18.3 points per game in their last three games and in those games they have allowed only 340.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play which is not that bad. On the ground, Tulsa is a force to be reckoned with as they average 294.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 5.5 yards per carry with RB Tarrion Adams leading the way. East Carolina really needs to control the gaps and force things to the outside with some help from the secondary if they want to stop Adams as they have allowed only 114.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have allowed 3.8 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB David Johnson has been the leader of this team all season and he has completed 63.0% of his passes the last three games for 9.0 yards per pass attempt. I do have to mention however that he has thrown 5 interceptions in those games and that could be a problem against an East Carolina secondary that has 3 picks in their last three games. The Pirates have allowed those last three opponents to complete only 54.6% of their passes for 7.0 yards per pass attempt. It's inevitable that Tulsa is going to score some points in this game and they will have some big plays but again the key for this defense is to somehow come up with some stops and force some turnovers which would give their offense a chance to put some points up on a very weak Tulsa defense. Tulsa is a very disciplined team that is not going to take stupid penalties which is again all the more reason for the Pirates defense to stay disciplined themselves and continue doing whatever they can do to disrupt the offensive flow of this offense. On average, Tulsa has scored 22.0 points per first half in their last three games which is quite a bit but it doesn't really concern me because once again East Carolina's defense is playing their best football of the season, they are the reason the Pirates are surging this late in the year and they have allowed only 7.0 points per first half in their last three games. Tulsa WR Brennan Marion is a superstar with his 9 receiving touchdowns and whopping 27.1 yards per reception but a lot of his success has come against absolutely useless secondaries like UTEP's where he burned them for 233 receiving yards and some big ass pass plays. As long as East Carolina can shut down those 60+ yard gains from the line of scrimmage, they can make this a short game with a lot of clock ticking and a great chance to grab their first ever CUSA Conference Title. I think Tulsa is a great team with a very impressive offense that could make a very good Bowl opponents for some of the bigger conference teams but I don't think they are going to runaway with the win in this game and things should be kept close. Defense wins championships right?
So you are telling me a team like East Carolina that goes 0-6 ATS in road games this season is going to go on the road against a team that averages 60.5 points per home game this season like Tulsa and that is 5-0 ATS at home as well?...and the spread is only 13.5? Something is not right here and like I said before, strange happens in big games like this and Skip Holtz knows what this could mean to his program, not only to pulloff the huge upset but to win their first ever CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME appearance. I know it sounds crazy to go against Tulsa in this spot but in my mind it's a must and the players think they already have the game won. You have to also keep in mind that Defense (and offense at times) wins Championships and East Carolina's defense is notches and miles better than Tulsa's if you look back on the season. So again I know most of you will have a tough time backing a team that is 0-6 ATS in their last six home games going up against a team that is 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games but this is a Championship game and the Pirates are the best home opponent Tulsa has faced all season. I think the most important stat of all here is the fact that Tulsa is only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing against a team with a winning record. That once again goes to show that their level of opposition has not been the best and the numbers are maybe not as accurate. I think Skip Holtz ends this season the way he started it, with two huge wins over two huge programs (this game and the Bowl Game). New Champs!
Trend of the Game: Tulsa is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams with a winning record.
East Carolina 52, Tulsa 46
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have it all a little bit too easy and I cannot remember the last time they lost a game. Having said that, somehow this team did lose two games this season with one of those being a 30-23 road loss to Bobby Petrino and the Arkansas Razorbacks and the other being a 70-30 blowout loss at Houston just a few weeks ago. Interestingly enough those two losses came in consecutive fashion and that was quite shocking for a team that has played so well at home but has been shoddy at best on the road this season. Seeing how this is a home game, it has to be mentioned that Tulsa is a perfect 5-0 ATS at home this season and they are just a completely different team when playing here. Having said that, they have not played a single Bowl caliber team at home this season beating teams such as New Mexico, Central Arkansas, Rice, UTEP, Central Florida and Tulane. Like I said, none of those teams will even come close to making a Bowl Game and East Carolina could easily beat all those teams. That's the thing with Tulsa, I don't know that they have faced a tough enough schedule at home to be considered a proven team. Tulsa comes into this game averaging 41.3 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to do that on 536.7 total yards of offense per game in those games and 6.7 yards per play. That's some crazy good offense. That also means that the honus is on the East Carolina defense to come up with some plays in this game or risk getting blown out of the water. The Pirates defense has allowed only 18.3 points per game in their last three games and in those games they have allowed only 340.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play which is not that bad. On the ground, Tulsa is a force to be reckoned with as they average 294.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 5.5 yards per carry with RB Tarrion Adams leading the way. East Carolina really needs to control the gaps and force things to the outside with some help from the secondary if they want to stop Adams as they have allowed only 114.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have allowed 3.8 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB David Johnson has been the leader of this team all season and he has completed 63.0% of his passes the last three games for 9.0 yards per pass attempt. I do have to mention however that he has thrown 5 interceptions in those games and that could be a problem against an East Carolina secondary that has 3 picks in their last three games. The Pirates have allowed those last three opponents to complete only 54.6% of their passes for 7.0 yards per pass attempt. It's inevitable that Tulsa is going to score some points in this game and they will have some big plays but again the key for this defense is to somehow come up with some stops and force some turnovers which would give their offense a chance to put some points up on a very weak Tulsa defense. Tulsa is a very disciplined team that is not going to take stupid penalties which is again all the more reason for the Pirates defense to stay disciplined themselves and continue doing whatever they can do to disrupt the offensive flow of this offense. On average, Tulsa has scored 22.0 points per first half in their last three games which is quite a bit but it doesn't really concern me because once again East Carolina's defense is playing their best football of the season, they are the reason the Pirates are surging this late in the year and they have allowed only 7.0 points per first half in their last three games. Tulsa WR Brennan Marion is a superstar with his 9 receiving touchdowns and whopping 27.1 yards per reception but a lot of his success has come against absolutely useless secondaries like UTEP's where he burned them for 233 receiving yards and some big ass pass plays. As long as East Carolina can shut down those 60+ yard gains from the line of scrimmage, they can make this a short game with a lot of clock ticking and a great chance to grab their first ever CUSA Conference Title. I think Tulsa is a great team with a very impressive offense that could make a very good Bowl opponents for some of the bigger conference teams but I don't think they are going to runaway with the win in this game and things should be kept close. Defense wins championships right?
So you are telling me a team like East Carolina that goes 0-6 ATS in road games this season is going to go on the road against a team that averages 60.5 points per home game this season like Tulsa and that is 5-0 ATS at home as well?...and the spread is only 13.5? Something is not right here and like I said before, strange happens in big games like this and Skip Holtz knows what this could mean to his program, not only to pulloff the huge upset but to win their first ever CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME appearance. I know it sounds crazy to go against Tulsa in this spot but in my mind it's a must and the players think they already have the game won. You have to also keep in mind that Defense (and offense at times) wins Championships and East Carolina's defense is notches and miles better than Tulsa's if you look back on the season. So again I know most of you will have a tough time backing a team that is 0-6 ATS in their last six home games going up against a team that is 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games but this is a Championship game and the Pirates are the best home opponent Tulsa has faced all season. I think the most important stat of all here is the fact that Tulsa is only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing against a team with a winning record. That once again goes to show that their level of opposition has not been the best and the numbers are maybe not as accurate. I think Skip Holtz ends this season the way he started it, with two huge wins over two huge programs (this game and the Bowl Game). New Champs!
Trend of the Game: Tulsa is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams with a winning record.
East Carolina 52, Tulsa 46
ACC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
View attachment 5925
View attachment 5928 Boston College Eagles pk (50 Units)View attachment 5942
***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
View attachment 5925
View attachment 5928 Boston College Eagles pk (50 Units)View attachment 5942
***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Boston College Eagles are a very unlikely participant in this ACC Conference Championship Game because with the departure (and huge NFL success) of Matt Ryan last season, this team was supposed to re-build for a few seasons and then maybe have a shot at competing a few years down the line. Well that re-building process took all of one season and now the Eagles get a chance to win what should be one hell of a game. The Eagles actually have the pleasure of knowing that they can beat this Virginia Tech team because they won the regular season meeting by 5 points back on October 18. Boston College made it here by winning their last four games as they took care of business against Notre Dame by 17, they went to Florida State and won by 10, they went to Wake Forest and won by 3 points and they beat Maryland by 7 at home in their regular season finale last weekend. I know some of you will be concerned that Boston College is only 1-2 ATS away from home but this team has played well and they deserve to be where they are now. Winning at NC State, Wake Forest and Florida State all in the same season is quite the feat if you ask me. Boston College comes into this game averaging a very decent 26.3 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 303.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.3 yards per play in those games which seems rather low for a team that has won four straight on such little offense? Virginia Tech's defense will most certainly not make things easier for the Eagles offense as they have allowed only 11.0 points per game in their last three games and in those games have allowed only 210.7 total yards of offense per game on 4.1 yards per play which is one of the best marks in the Nation over the span of the last three games. On the ground, Boston College has to get something going to create second down and a manageable yardage situation as the Eagles come into this game averaging 149.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games on only 3.4 yards per carry. They have to go up against a Virginia Tech defense that has allowed 137.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games and that have allowed 3.6 yards per carry in those games. So again if you are going to do anything against the Hokies it is run the ball. I said that because in the air, QB Chris Crane lacks experience and mistakes are probable in this game. He has completed only 54.4% of his passes the last three games for 5.8 yards per pass attempt. The worst part about that is that he has to go up against a Bud Foster defense that has allowed the last three opponent QB's they have faced to complete only 42.9% of their passes the last three games for 5.3 yards per pass attempt. The big reason for that has been the pressure they are able to generate up front as they have 6 sacks in their last three games and getting to Crane won't be all that tough against an Eagles offensive line that has allowed 5 sacks in their last three games. On that note, as poorly as Chris Crane can play at times and as bad as he looks out there, he has grown as the season has gone along and he is no longer making stupid decisions. He has been intercepted only one time the last three games and that should help minimize the mistakes against a defense that has come up with 5 interceptions in their last three games. Another issue Boston College has to deal with is fumbles because they have now lost 5 fumbles on the ground in their last three games and if they come in here and pull that kind of crap, its going to be a long afternoon for these guys. Having said, Virginia Tech has not been tackling the way they used to tackle and they have recovered only one fumble in their last three games which gives the Eagles a chance to fix their problem here. RB Montel Harris is a stud running back who is going to have a great career at this school but he is my x-factor in this game. Harris rushed for 61 yards on 15 carries in their first game against the Hokies this season adding a rushing touchdown to that resume. He is a powerful back that should lead this offense as they control the clock, keep the Hokies offense off the field. Boston College doesn't have much offense but they always find a way to get things done and they feed off their defense a lot better than VT does.
The Virginia Tech Hokies are no strangers to playing in this championship game as they have now been here three of the last four years, winning this Championship last season in a 30-16 romp of these very same Boston College Eagles. The Hokies didn't look to good after the start of this season when they lost to the East Carolina Pirates. Although they have played much better football as of late and although they do have a good team, I am not so convinced about them winning this game and I say that because they lost three of their last six games on the season and they finished off their regular season with wins over Virginia and Duke, nothing to get all crazy about if you ask me. You guys have to understand right now that this Frank Beamer led Hokies team has not won on the road since September 27 of this season when they went to Nebraska and won as underdogs. They lost all their ACC Conference games away from home going down to Boston College by 5, going down at Florida State by 10 and going down at Miami by 2 points. Sure they are 3-2 ATS away from home and they have covered some spreads but this is the only game that matters and the line doesn't really favor either team. I just don't trust the Hokies at all with my money. Virginia Tech comes into this game averaging only 15.0 points per game in their last three games and keep in mind that those games were against Miami, Duke and Virginia. In those games this team managed to average only 325.3 total yards of offense per game (not much better than Boston College in the end) on 4.6 yards per play. The Boston College defense is one of the main reasons the team is even getting the chance to avenge lasyt year's loss as they have allowed only 19.7 points per game in their last three games and in those games they managed to allow only 277.0 total yards of offense per game and allowed only 4.3 yards per play. The Hokies offense only goes as far as their running game takes them really because Tyrod can move and the Hokies have rushed 45+ times in their last three games. Having said that, they average 160.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games but on only 3.5 yards per carry in those games. Boston College is going to have none of that in this game as they have been stout against the run the last month or so allowing their last three opponents to run for only 44.7 rushing yards per game and 1.7 yards per carry in those games making them the best run defense in the ACC Conference by miles. In the air, the Virginia Tech QB's have combined to complete 56.2% of their passes the last three games for 6.8 yards per pass attempt in those games so yes they do have the potential to make some plays downfield. However, Boston College has a very solid secondary that loves to make big plays and this game is all about them. They have allowed their last three opponents to complete only 53.4% of their passes in those last three games for only 5.9 yards per pass attempt which should make things tough for Tyrod and the boys. The offensive line has had all sorts of problems as of late and the QB's have been sacked a whopping 10 times in their last three games. That opens the door for the Eagles to bring some pressure packages and we have seen a bit of that from them their last three games as they have combined for 5 sacks in those three games. The additional pressure should force the Hokies QB's into some mistakes in this one as they have thrown 4 interceptions in their last three games and must now go up against a very opportunistic Boston College secondary that has come down with a whopping 7 interceptions in their last three games. Like I said before, this defense is the backbone of this team and they are the reason the team has made it to where they are right now. With all the running they do, Virginia Tech does have the tendency to fumble as much as Boston College does and they have lost 2 fumbles in their last three games but the Eagles do not have a single fumble recovery in their last three games and something tells me they are due to continue making huge game changing plays on defense. Both teams have good discipline and I don't see many penalties being called in this game. Experience wise I might give a small edge to the Hokies because many of these guys are in the ACC Championship game for the third time in their careers but having said that, the Hokies just don't have the offense they did last season and that is the main reason I don't see them winning this game.
The Hokies should have a permanent spot in this game every season because they always seem to find a way to play for the ACC Conference Championship. This is their third time in four years and for those of you who didn't know, this is a rematch of last season's ACC Championship Game that was won 30-16 by the Hokies. Having said that, things have changed since then and these teams are very different. In the big win last season, Virginia Tech wide receivers Eddie Royal, Josh Morgan and Josh Hyman all caught touchdown passes in the win. However, ALL THREE PLAYERS ARE NOW GONE. Also gone are RB Brandon Ore who rushed for 55 yards in that game and so are many players from the Boston College sidelines. So once again these are two very different teams playing each other this season and the game will probably be a lot different. There is no doubt a lot of these guys on Boston College do not want to see a repeat of last season where they beat the Hokies in the regular season only to lose to them in the most important game of the season. On the line here, a trip to a BCS Bowl Game really and the chance to really make some noise heading into next season. Over the last 4-5 seasons Virginia Tech has been the toast of betting in the ACC covering 26 of their last 37 games versus conference opponents. However, things are changing big time and the Hokies just don't play Beamer Ball anymore. That will cost them here.
Trend of the Game: Boston College is 8-2 ATS the last 10 meetings between these two teams.
Boston College 27, Virginia Tech 16
The Virginia Tech Hokies are no strangers to playing in this championship game as they have now been here three of the last four years, winning this Championship last season in a 30-16 romp of these very same Boston College Eagles. The Hokies didn't look to good after the start of this season when they lost to the East Carolina Pirates. Although they have played much better football as of late and although they do have a good team, I am not so convinced about them winning this game and I say that because they lost three of their last six games on the season and they finished off their regular season with wins over Virginia and Duke, nothing to get all crazy about if you ask me. You guys have to understand right now that this Frank Beamer led Hokies team has not won on the road since September 27 of this season when they went to Nebraska and won as underdogs. They lost all their ACC Conference games away from home going down to Boston College by 5, going down at Florida State by 10 and going down at Miami by 2 points. Sure they are 3-2 ATS away from home and they have covered some spreads but this is the only game that matters and the line doesn't really favor either team. I just don't trust the Hokies at all with my money. Virginia Tech comes into this game averaging only 15.0 points per game in their last three games and keep in mind that those games were against Miami, Duke and Virginia. In those games this team managed to average only 325.3 total yards of offense per game (not much better than Boston College in the end) on 4.6 yards per play. The Boston College defense is one of the main reasons the team is even getting the chance to avenge lasyt year's loss as they have allowed only 19.7 points per game in their last three games and in those games they managed to allow only 277.0 total yards of offense per game and allowed only 4.3 yards per play. The Hokies offense only goes as far as their running game takes them really because Tyrod can move and the Hokies have rushed 45+ times in their last three games. Having said that, they average 160.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games but on only 3.5 yards per carry in those games. Boston College is going to have none of that in this game as they have been stout against the run the last month or so allowing their last three opponents to run for only 44.7 rushing yards per game and 1.7 yards per carry in those games making them the best run defense in the ACC Conference by miles. In the air, the Virginia Tech QB's have combined to complete 56.2% of their passes the last three games for 6.8 yards per pass attempt in those games so yes they do have the potential to make some plays downfield. However, Boston College has a very solid secondary that loves to make big plays and this game is all about them. They have allowed their last three opponents to complete only 53.4% of their passes in those last three games for only 5.9 yards per pass attempt which should make things tough for Tyrod and the boys. The offensive line has had all sorts of problems as of late and the QB's have been sacked a whopping 10 times in their last three games. That opens the door for the Eagles to bring some pressure packages and we have seen a bit of that from them their last three games as they have combined for 5 sacks in those three games. The additional pressure should force the Hokies QB's into some mistakes in this one as they have thrown 4 interceptions in their last three games and must now go up against a very opportunistic Boston College secondary that has come down with a whopping 7 interceptions in their last three games. Like I said before, this defense is the backbone of this team and they are the reason the team has made it to where they are right now. With all the running they do, Virginia Tech does have the tendency to fumble as much as Boston College does and they have lost 2 fumbles in their last three games but the Eagles do not have a single fumble recovery in their last three games and something tells me they are due to continue making huge game changing plays on defense. Both teams have good discipline and I don't see many penalties being called in this game. Experience wise I might give a small edge to the Hokies because many of these guys are in the ACC Championship game for the third time in their careers but having said that, the Hokies just don't have the offense they did last season and that is the main reason I don't see them winning this game.
The Hokies should have a permanent spot in this game every season because they always seem to find a way to play for the ACC Conference Championship. This is their third time in four years and for those of you who didn't know, this is a rematch of last season's ACC Championship Game that was won 30-16 by the Hokies. Having said that, things have changed since then and these teams are very different. In the big win last season, Virginia Tech wide receivers Eddie Royal, Josh Morgan and Josh Hyman all caught touchdown passes in the win. However, ALL THREE PLAYERS ARE NOW GONE. Also gone are RB Brandon Ore who rushed for 55 yards in that game and so are many players from the Boston College sidelines. So once again these are two very different teams playing each other this season and the game will probably be a lot different. There is no doubt a lot of these guys on Boston College do not want to see a repeat of last season where they beat the Hokies in the regular season only to lose to them in the most important game of the season. On the line here, a trip to a BCS Bowl Game really and the chance to really make some noise heading into next season. Over the last 4-5 seasons Virginia Tech has been the toast of betting in the ACC covering 26 of their last 37 games versus conference opponents. However, things are changing big time and the Hokies just don't play Beamer Ball anymore. That will cost them here.
Trend of the Game: Boston College is 8-2 ATS the last 10 meetings between these two teams.
Boston College 27, Virginia Tech 16
SEC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
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View attachment 5926 Florida Gators -9.5 (10 Units) View attachment 5932
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View attachment 5926 Florida Gators -9.5 (10 Units) View attachment 5932
The Alabama Crimson Tide are a perfect 12-0 SU on the season and the way things are going right now they are scheduled to play for the BCS Championship Game in early 2009 if they can win here. Having said that, have you ever seen a team that is undefeated be a 10 point underdog in the SEC Championship Game before? I haven't and I am guessing a lot of people will probably be baited into taking the Tide in this game because of what they have done this season. My only concern with betting on Alabama is that their strength of schedule (well according to my rankings anyways) is pretty damn weak and I have them listed at #73 in the Country in terms of difficulty. The bottom line there being that they have not played some of the top teams in the SEC and their schedule has been easier than Oklahoma, Florida, Texas, USC and Texas Tech by miles. All of those teams are ranked in my TOP 30 for strength of schedule while the Tide sit in the 70's. Alabama is coming off some impressive wins at Tennessee and LSU as well as some home wins over Arkansas State, Mississippi State and Auburn (again how many of those teams are going to Bowl Games?). They are 5-0 ATS in their last five games and have not missed out on the spread since playing their last Bowl Bound team in Ole Miss back in mid-October. Alabama comes into this game averaging a very healthy 31.7 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done by averaging 376.3 total yards of offense per game, once again an indication that their defense has done most of the dirty work for them in recent games. Good Luck against the Gators defense...a defense that has allowed only 13.3 points per game in their last three games and a defense that has allowed only 244.0 total yards of offense per game in their last three games on 3.6 yards per play in those games. WOW! Alabama's offensive success mostly relies on their ability to run the ball and set things up in the air. Having said that, the Crimson Tide are averaging 190.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done on 4.2 yards per carry in those games. NOT SO FAST MY FRIENDS! Florida's defense has been stout against the run and they have allowed their last three opponents to run for only 86.0 rushing yards per game and only 2.7 yards per carry in those games. That will force Alabama to throw the ball a lot more than they would have liked in a game like this and QB John Parker Wilson is probably not up to the task. He has completed only 54.4% of his passes the last three games for 8.2 yards per pass attempt which means this team loves to play action and find the deep man. Something tells me that is not going to work against this relentless Gators secondary that has allowed their last three opponents to complete only 43.4% of their passes for only 4.5 yards per pass attempt. Parker Wilson has no idea what kind of pass rush he has coming his way in this one. Despite allowing only 2 sacks in their last three games, the offensive line has to deal with a pass rush that has 8 sacks in their last three games and that have intercepted 9 passes in those games (wow now thats a secondary). Parker Wilson is not known for interceptions but this is the best defense he will have seen all season and mistakes are almost a certainty in this game for the Senior out of Hoover. Nick Saban is a really good college coach and the proof of that is the fact that the Crimson Tide have taken only 2.7 penalties per game in their last three games but at some point in this championship game i think frustration is going to set in and we are going to see some uncharacteristic stuff from the Alabama players. The Tide can try and run the ball as much as they want but the minute it doesn't work, this team is in trouble. That's what you get for failing to develop a good enough pass game that you can use when you most need it. Parker Wilson has thrown for only 9 touchdown passes all season and WR Julio Jones leads the team in receptions with only 32 catches on the season. How are you supposed to win games when your run games doesn't work and you have to turn to an underused passing attack? It won't be easy that's for sure and if they keep running the ball and it doesn't work, Florida is going to keep piling on the points and making their statememt valid for the BCS Championship Game bid. Alabama had their fun but now it's time for a reality check and this is not going to be pretty, I can tell you that right now.
The Florida Gators already have a spot in the BCS Championship Game according to 99.9% of the BOWL GAME PREDICTION websites so I find it funny that some of you are actually talking about Alabama winning this game. Sure it's possible and anything is pretty possible nowadays in college football but let's get real for a second here. Tim Tebow...John Parker Wilson? Florida defense, Alabama Defense? Teams Florida has played and beat this season, teams Alabama has played and beat this season? None of these are on the same level or worth discussing so you guys figure this out and tell me how they compare because they don't. What don't most of you understand about not going against the Gators ever? I mean the last time they lost on the ATS front was all the way back on September 27 against Ole Miss in that shocking upset that almost ruined their season. Since that loss, the Gators have been on a rampage and if you bet on them every single game since that day, you would be rich by now seeing how they have gone 7-0 ATS in those games and have been big time cash money! What more do you need other than their 45-15 stomping at Florida State last weekend? Or how about their 56-6 win over Steve Spurrier and South Carolina? Would you like some 49-10 dinner over Georgia....? Anyways the Gators come into this game averaging a whopping and crazy 57.0 points per game in the last three games and in those games they managed to average 575.3 total yards of offense per game on a....get ready for this...whopping 9.1 yards per play in those games. WTF??? Alabama has great numbers defensively and yes their defense has been impressive at times but please keep in mind that they are ranked #73 on my strength of schedule list and there is no way they have seen an offense like this at any point this season despite allowing only 9.3 points per game in their last three games and allowing only 239.7 total yards of offense per game in those games on 3.9 yards per play. NO CHANCE. On the ground, there is no team in the Country that can run the ball the way the Gators do as they have averaged 352.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have averaged 8.5 yards per carry in those games. When was the last time you heard numbers like that anyways? How about Texas? 2005? Not even right. So you have this same Alabama defense that has allowed 97.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games and in those games they have allowed 3.0 yards per carry. Again that was against inferior rushing teams and I think they are in serious trouble today in this game. If that doesn't soften up the pass defense I don't think that anything ever would. QB Tim Tebow has completed 63.6% of his passes the last three games for 10.1 yards per pass attempt so the minute you bring in some help in the box, this guys is going to burn you deep despite not having Percy Harvin in this game (which is a possibility). The Alabama defense has allowed their last three opponents to complete only 38.8% of their passes but don't get too excited because I will keep mentioning inferior opponents and those opponents managed only 5.0 yards per pass attempt in those games. Alabama has only 3 sacks in their last three games and they don't have much of a pass rush to speak of. Regardless of that, the Gators have one of the best offensive lines in the Nation and they will no doubt get some big time push in this game against the Tide. Tebow has not thrown an interception in five games now and his last interception this season was on October 25 against the Kentucky Wildcats. The Alabama secondary has 4 interceptions in their last three games and they do have some guys who can make some plays but I do not like the way they matchup with the Gators receivers in this game because regardless of what they do in coverage, they are going to have to bite here and there not knowing what the rushing attack has to offer next. This is one heck of a tough task for any secondary and I don't think Bama has the all out talent to get the job done in this one. Urban Meyer really has these guys understading what they need to do to be the best in college football and that is the difference between a good coach and a great coach. Everyone on this team knows what they have to do to win. The Gators have taken only 5.3 penalties per game in their last three games and as they have done all season, they have kept things under control. For me this is all about Alabama not being able to stop both the passing and running attacks of Florida at the same time. When they load up and try to stop the run, they are going to get burned by Tebow's passing ability (something Alabama does not have with Parker Wilson). When the Gators pass, Alabama has to drop linebackers into coverage and believe me when I say that this is a reciper for Alabam disaster. CHOMP CHOMP!
Sure I am one of those people who would love to take the obvious play here in Alabama with a great coach in Nick Saban, a very established offense and defense balance and a chance to create a great single season turnaround for a program that has had this coming for a very long time. The only problem is as much as I want to bet on the Tide, the Gators are a team I refuse to fade and a team I said I would always take to the bank in big games like this one because they have a big game coach, some big game players and the biggest BIG GAME QB in college football in Tim Tebow. Not much more can be said about this because all the Gators have to do is win this game and guarantee themselves a spot in the BCS Championship Game. Simple as that and believe me when I say that Tebow will win a Championship as the starter for this team before he is done as Gator so might as well make it this year. One more questions, who the hell has Alabama really played against anyways? Who have they beat that has any significance in college football right now? Nobody really. Alabama is 5-0 ATS in their last five games but for the last time in this writeup I will mention their SOS ranking of #73 in college football. Florida on the other hand is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games played versus a team with a winning record, they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games and they have covered the spread in 19 of their last 26 games overall. This Gators team has NATIONAL CHAMPIONS written all over them and this is their semi-final.
Trend of the Game: Florida is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games versus teams with a winning record.
Florida 52, Alabama 19
The Florida Gators already have a spot in the BCS Championship Game according to 99.9% of the BOWL GAME PREDICTION websites so I find it funny that some of you are actually talking about Alabama winning this game. Sure it's possible and anything is pretty possible nowadays in college football but let's get real for a second here. Tim Tebow...John Parker Wilson? Florida defense, Alabama Defense? Teams Florida has played and beat this season, teams Alabama has played and beat this season? None of these are on the same level or worth discussing so you guys figure this out and tell me how they compare because they don't. What don't most of you understand about not going against the Gators ever? I mean the last time they lost on the ATS front was all the way back on September 27 against Ole Miss in that shocking upset that almost ruined their season. Since that loss, the Gators have been on a rampage and if you bet on them every single game since that day, you would be rich by now seeing how they have gone 7-0 ATS in those games and have been big time cash money! What more do you need other than their 45-15 stomping at Florida State last weekend? Or how about their 56-6 win over Steve Spurrier and South Carolina? Would you like some 49-10 dinner over Georgia....? Anyways the Gators come into this game averaging a whopping and crazy 57.0 points per game in the last three games and in those games they managed to average 575.3 total yards of offense per game on a....get ready for this...whopping 9.1 yards per play in those games. WTF??? Alabama has great numbers defensively and yes their defense has been impressive at times but please keep in mind that they are ranked #73 on my strength of schedule list and there is no way they have seen an offense like this at any point this season despite allowing only 9.3 points per game in their last three games and allowing only 239.7 total yards of offense per game in those games on 3.9 yards per play. NO CHANCE. On the ground, there is no team in the Country that can run the ball the way the Gators do as they have averaged 352.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have averaged 8.5 yards per carry in those games. When was the last time you heard numbers like that anyways? How about Texas? 2005? Not even right. So you have this same Alabama defense that has allowed 97.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games and in those games they have allowed 3.0 yards per carry. Again that was against inferior rushing teams and I think they are in serious trouble today in this game. If that doesn't soften up the pass defense I don't think that anything ever would. QB Tim Tebow has completed 63.6% of his passes the last three games for 10.1 yards per pass attempt so the minute you bring in some help in the box, this guys is going to burn you deep despite not having Percy Harvin in this game (which is a possibility). The Alabama defense has allowed their last three opponents to complete only 38.8% of their passes but don't get too excited because I will keep mentioning inferior opponents and those opponents managed only 5.0 yards per pass attempt in those games. Alabama has only 3 sacks in their last three games and they don't have much of a pass rush to speak of. Regardless of that, the Gators have one of the best offensive lines in the Nation and they will no doubt get some big time push in this game against the Tide. Tebow has not thrown an interception in five games now and his last interception this season was on October 25 against the Kentucky Wildcats. The Alabama secondary has 4 interceptions in their last three games and they do have some guys who can make some plays but I do not like the way they matchup with the Gators receivers in this game because regardless of what they do in coverage, they are going to have to bite here and there not knowing what the rushing attack has to offer next. This is one heck of a tough task for any secondary and I don't think Bama has the all out talent to get the job done in this one. Urban Meyer really has these guys understading what they need to do to be the best in college football and that is the difference between a good coach and a great coach. Everyone on this team knows what they have to do to win. The Gators have taken only 5.3 penalties per game in their last three games and as they have done all season, they have kept things under control. For me this is all about Alabama not being able to stop both the passing and running attacks of Florida at the same time. When they load up and try to stop the run, they are going to get burned by Tebow's passing ability (something Alabama does not have with Parker Wilson). When the Gators pass, Alabama has to drop linebackers into coverage and believe me when I say that this is a reciper for Alabam disaster. CHOMP CHOMP!
Sure I am one of those people who would love to take the obvious play here in Alabama with a great coach in Nick Saban, a very established offense and defense balance and a chance to create a great single season turnaround for a program that has had this coming for a very long time. The only problem is as much as I want to bet on the Tide, the Gators are a team I refuse to fade and a team I said I would always take to the bank in big games like this one because they have a big game coach, some big game players and the biggest BIG GAME QB in college football in Tim Tebow. Not much more can be said about this because all the Gators have to do is win this game and guarantee themselves a spot in the BCS Championship Game. Simple as that and believe me when I say that Tebow will win a Championship as the starter for this team before he is done as Gator so might as well make it this year. One more questions, who the hell has Alabama really played against anyways? Who have they beat that has any significance in college football right now? Nobody really. Alabama is 5-0 ATS in their last five games but for the last time in this writeup I will mention their SOS ranking of #73 in college football. Florida on the other hand is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games played versus a team with a winning record, they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games and they have covered the spread in 19 of their last 26 games overall. This Gators team has NATIONAL CHAMPIONS written all over them and this is their semi-final.
Trend of the Game: Florida is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games versus teams with a winning record.
Florida 52, Alabama 19
BIG 12 CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
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View attachment 5937 Oklahoma Sooners -16.5 (10 Units) View attachment 5938
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View attachment 5937 Oklahoma Sooners -16.5 (10 Units) View attachment 5938
The Missouri Tigers are back where they were last year in almost an identical position, trying to knockoff a team potentially heading for the BCS Championship Game. Things never panned out. Missouri was a +3 point underdog in the Big 12 Champioship Game of 2007 but they never showed up for that game and got blown out of the water by these same Sooners. The only difference between last year's team and this year's team is that last year's team could actually stop opponents and play defense while this year's version of the team has allowed 24+ points in six games this season. They allowed 42 points to Illinois in their season opener. They allowed 28 points to Oklahoma State this season, they allowed 56 points to Texas the following week, they allowed 28 points to Baylor two weeks later, they allowed 24 points at home to Kansas State the following and more recently they allowed Kansas to score 40 points against them in a regular season finale loss to the Jayhawks. Do you get the point now? Sure they can score points but their defense is useless and I don't see how they can keep up with the Sooners in this game. Missouri comes into the game averaging 43.3 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 495.3 total yards of offense per game and 7.0 yards per play which would be enough to keep any team into a game as +17 point underdogs. Having said that, Oklahoma has allowed 30.0 points per game in their last three games which seems like a ton because they have also allowed 378.7 total yards of offense per game in those games and have allowed 5.1 yards per play. YES IT SOUNDS BAD but their opponents were Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State (2 of those are TOP 10 offenses in the Nation) and you can't blame them for going the shootout route. It makes sense with this kind of offense. Missouri is averaging 193.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and they have managed to do that on 6.4 yards per carry in those games. On that note, things won't be as easy today as the Sooners defense has allowed only 89.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have allowed only 3.0 yards per carry in those games. That will force Missouri to pass a lot more than they have been and we shall see if QB Chase Daniel is up to a task he could not complete last season. He has completed 68.0% of his passes the last three games for 7.4 yards per pass attempt in those games but what concerns me for Missouri is the fact that Oklahoma's secondary is still playing well and they have allowed their last three opponents to complete only 54.5% of their passes in those games for 6.6 yards per pass attempt. It also has to be mentioned that Missouri had problems protecting Chase against the Longhorns and those nightmares should return tonight despite the fact that the the offensive line has allowed only 4 sacks in their last three games. Oklahoma is going to bring everything they have at the superstar QB in this game as they have 9 sacks in their last three games and have terrorized opposing and Nation leading QB's in those games. The problem I have with Chase Daniel is that he has thrown 5 interceptions in his last three games, he has been more careless than ever before and the Sooners defense is not going to last long without making some big plays in this game. They have 4 interceptions in their last three games and they have come up with some huge plays in the process. What I mean by that is that the Sooners have forced a whopping 8 fumbles in their last three games, they have recovered 5 of those fumbles and if they can continue tackling the way they do and forcing that many turnovers, their offense is going to continue winning games by 20+ points like they have done all season. Despite averaging a very nice 21.7 points per first half the last three games, Missouri is going to find it hard to score points in this game against an Oklahoma team that has allowed a combined 3 points in the first quarter of their last three games. This is a matter of Missouri matching Oklahoma touchdown for touchdown in this game and like I said before, I just don't think they can do it. They make too many mistakes, Daniel has not looked all that sharp and the Sooners defense, despite allowing a ton of points lately, is still very good and they always come up with big plays and turnovers. Missouri won't have much of a chance.
The Oklahoma Sooners are ready for this game, they are ready for a shot at the National Championship and all that stands in their way is a Missouri team that is probably not worthy (caliber wise) of even being in this game. The perfect world would have Texas playing Oklahoma for a trip to the National Championship Game because those are the two best teams in the Big 12 Conference but that's not the way things work. The Sooners are 11-1 SU on the season and they are certainly worthy of a shot a the National Title pending they win this game but so the Texas Longhorns are just as worthy and it sucks that the BCS is the way it is. I say that because the Horns are the only blemish on Oklahoma's record as they beat the Sooners 45-35 back on October 11. Since that day, Oklahoma has been on a complete rampage winning their last six games of the season and had it not been for a garbage time TD (cheap one at that aided by the refs in a bogus finish to a game) against the Kansas Jayhawks, the Sooners would have finished 6-0 ATS in those games instead of 5-1 ATS. We are talking about a team that has scored at least 58 points in their last five games now which is incredible for a team playing against such a high level of opponents. Oklahoma comes into this game averaging 64.0 points per game in their last three games and in those games they managed to average a whopping 611.7 total yards of offense per game in those games on an even more whopping 7.8 yards per play. Missouri's defense has allowed 28.0 points per game in their last three games and they have allowed 418.3 total yards of offense per game in those games and allowed 5.3 yards per play...not so bad. Having said that, this is the same team that got lit up by Texas earlier this season and the same should happen in this game. On the ground, the Sooners are just too good with RB's Chris Brown and Demarco Murray as they have both combined to lead this team to 271.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 6.2 yards per carry in those games. If Missouri had a clue how to stop the run I would say they have a chance in this game but they have allowed their last three opponents to run for 125.0 rushing yards per game and have allowed 4.3 yards per carry in those games so all hope of stopping the run is completely gone if you ask me. In the air, QB Sam Bradford has been better than just good. He has completed an impressive 68.0% of his passes the last three games and in those games has also averaged 9.9 yards per pass attempt. That should be just enough to setoff some fireworks in this game and I say that because the Missouri Tigers have allowed their last three opponents to complete 64.6% of their passes for 6.0 yards per pass attempt in those games and if you can't stop the Sooners run and you can't stop the Sooners pass, they are going to drop some serious points on you. Bradord has not thrown an interceptions in quite some time now (its been more than three games) and the only reason Missouri has been winning games or staying close in games in recent weeks is because they have 5 interceptions in their last three games and they have been coming up with some big plays in those games. That will be tough tonight unless they can get some pressure on Bradford and for some reason I don't see that happening as the Sooners offensive line has allowed only 3 sacks in their last three games while the Missouri pass rush has been able to get to the opposing QB only 3 times in their last three games. Nothing to write home about thats for sure. The Sooners have lacked big time discpline their last three games taking 27 penalties in those games and costing themselves some big yardage because of that. However, they rarely turn the ball over and have lost only one fumble the last three games which not only benefits a team seeking a blowout win but it also helps that Missouri has not been able to force fumbles the last three games recovering only one fumble in those games. If you thought Missouri scored a lot of points in the first half of their last three games, how about Oklahoma scoring a whopping 33.7 points per first half of their last three games. Yes Missouri has been great early on in games, keeping teams out of the endzone but nothing compares to this Sooners attack and the last time Missouri's defense faced a team like this they got blown out of the water and allowed 56 points. Please expect the same to happen here and the Sooners want to shut doubters up so they need a big win in this game.
The Oklahoma Sooners are ready for this game, they are ready for a shot at the National Championship and all that stands in their way is a Missouri team that is probably not worthy (caliber wise) of even being in this game. The perfect world would have Texas playing Oklahoma for a trip to the National Championship Game because those are the two best teams in the Big 12 Conference but that's not the way things work. The Sooners are 11-1 SU on the season and they are certainly worthy of a shot a the National Title pending they win this game but so the Texas Longhorns are just as worthy and it sucks that the BCS is the way it is. I say that because the Horns are the only blemish on Oklahoma's record as they beat the Sooners 45-35 back on October 11. Since that day, Oklahoma has been on a complete rampage winning their last six games of the season and had it not been for a garbage time TD (cheap one at that aided by the refs in a bogus finish to a game) against the Kansas Jayhawks, the Sooners would have finished 6-0 ATS in those games instead of 5-1 ATS. We are talking about a team that has scored at least 58 points in their last five games now which is incredible for a team playing against such a high level of opponents. Oklahoma comes into this game averaging 64.0 points per game in their last three games and in those games they managed to average a whopping 611.7 total yards of offense per game in those games on an even more whopping 7.8 yards per play. Missouri's defense has allowed 28.0 points per game in their last three games and they have allowed 418.3 total yards of offense per game in those games and allowed 5.3 yards per play...not so bad. Having said that, this is the same team that got lit up by Texas earlier this season and the same should happen in this game. On the ground, the Sooners are just too good with RB's Chris Brown and Demarco Murray as they have both combined to lead this team to 271.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 6.2 yards per carry in those games. If Missouri had a clue how to stop the run I would say they have a chance in this game but they have allowed their last three opponents to run for 125.0 rushing yards per game and have allowed 4.3 yards per carry in those games so all hope of stopping the run is completely gone if you ask me. In the air, QB Sam Bradford has been better than just good. He has completed an impressive 68.0% of his passes the last three games and in those games has also averaged 9.9 yards per pass attempt. That should be just enough to setoff some fireworks in this game and I say that because the Missouri Tigers have allowed their last three opponents to complete 64.6% of their passes for 6.0 yards per pass attempt in those games and if you can't stop the Sooners run and you can't stop the Sooners pass, they are going to drop some serious points on you. Bradord has not thrown an interceptions in quite some time now (its been more than three games) and the only reason Missouri has been winning games or staying close in games in recent weeks is because they have 5 interceptions in their last three games and they have been coming up with some big plays in those games. That will be tough tonight unless they can get some pressure on Bradford and for some reason I don't see that happening as the Sooners offensive line has allowed only 3 sacks in their last three games while the Missouri pass rush has been able to get to the opposing QB only 3 times in their last three games. Nothing to write home about thats for sure. The Sooners have lacked big time discpline their last three games taking 27 penalties in those games and costing themselves some big yardage because of that. However, they rarely turn the ball over and have lost only one fumble the last three games which not only benefits a team seeking a blowout win but it also helps that Missouri has not been able to force fumbles the last three games recovering only one fumble in those games. If you thought Missouri scored a lot of points in the first half of their last three games, how about Oklahoma scoring a whopping 33.7 points per first half of their last three games. Yes Missouri has been great early on in games, keeping teams out of the endzone but nothing compares to this Sooners attack and the last time Missouri's defense faced a team like this they got blown out of the water and allowed 56 points. Please expect the same to happen here and the Sooners want to shut doubters up so they need a big win in this game.
Here we go with yet another Conference Championship rematch from last season. There has been so much talk about how Texas deserves to be in this game and not the Sooners that you can't help but think that Oklahoma is a bit pissed off about the disrespect and they will probably come out in this game with some bad things on their minds. Missouri was supposed to pull the upset in this game about a year ago but instead they were demolished to the tune of a 38-17 loss as +3 point underdogs. Has that much changed this season that they should now be +17 point underdogs? Maybe. Watching some Missouri games this season you can tell something is missing and you can tell they just can't stop powerhouse offenses like Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma. All you have to do is take a look back at their 56-31 road loss to the Longhorns this season to realize that this team will fold when the other offense can score points. Missouri has been a good team to bet on after losing a game straight up and they have been good in neutral site games covering 7 of their last 9 played on a neutral site. Having said that, they are coming off a loss to Kansas on a neutral site and they have to play an Oklahoma team that has too much to prove with all the controversy surrounding who should really be in this title game. Stoops will not accept anything but a huge win for yet another Big 12 Championship this season.
Trend of the Game: Missouri is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
Oklahoma 68, Missouri 21
View attachment 5929 Hawaii Warriors +7 (25 Units) View attachment 5933
The Cincinnati Bearcats are in Hawaii this week for a vacation and I'm telling you right now that this game doesn't really mean jack to them. You know they have played so well that coach Kelly is going to at least let them hang out in clubs and play on the beach all day and we all know what happens to teams who get involved in that stuff when they come to Hawaii. I mean afterall they are 2008 Big East Conference Champions no matter what happens this weekend and there is reason to celebrate. The Bearcats are 10-2 SU on the season with a very decent 6-5 ATS record but like I mentioned before, I really don't know what their interest in this game might be seeing how they cannot really improve their Bowl Status (they are going to the BCS regardless I think) and they cannot lose the Big East Title even with a loss here So what is left to play for here? Pride? Maybe. Confidence? Nah. Because it's on their schedule and they were supposed to be playing for the Big East Title? Yup you got it. However they have already clinched and there is nothing to play for. Cincinnati comes into this game averaging 28.7 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done on 404.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play in those games which is good but not all that good considering. Hawaii's defense has actually really been playing well as of late and for the first time ever I am betting on the Warriors based on their defense. They have allowed only 19.0 points per game in their last three games and in those games they have allowed an unusually low 271.7 total yards of offense per game and only 4.4 yards per play in those very same games which is impressive (and maybe their best defensive unit in a bunch of years). On the ground, Cincinnati has not run the ball all that well and that does concern me as they have rushed for only 119.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games and in those games have averaged 3.6 yards per carry. Hawaii has been as stout as it gets against the run in their last three games as they have allowed only 58.3 rushing yards per game in those games and they have allowed only 1.8 yards per carry meaning the Bearcats will have to throw a lot more than they had planned in this game. In the air, the Bearcats QB's have completed 65.8% of their passes the last three games for 7.7 yards per pass attempt in those games. My concern though has been some weaknesses in the offensive line as the Bearcats have allowed 6 sacks in their last three games and they have to face a Hawaii pass rush that leads the Nation the last three games with 17 sacks in those games. The Warriors have allowed their last three opponents to complete only 59.1% of their passes the last three games for 7.3 yards per pass attempt in those games. The more pressure they can get on Pike and company the more this team is going to force turnovers and they have been turnover forcing machines in their last three games, coming up with 5 interceptions in their last three games which should directly impact the outcome of this game. The Bearcats, being nice and relaxed this week, will probably underestimate Hawaii's pass rush and that should lead to a few more INT's by the Warriors secondary (again we are not used to this as they have been horrendous for years now). Cincinnati does lack quality discipline for a team that is probably heading to the BCS Bowl series because they have taken 7.0 penalties per game in their last three games and that has cost them a whopping 65.0 penalty yards per game in those games (I am not saying Hawaii is any better because they are not). Cincinnati has been scoring less than 14 points per first half in their last three games and if they come out with a slow start in this game as well, they are going to be down before they know it and playing catchup all game is quite possible for a team that has absolutely nothing to play for here today. The Bearcats are a very solid team on both sides of the ball and yes I do think they can win a BCS Bowl Game should they get there but this is a very bad spot for this team and I don't trust them to win this game at all. BAD SPOT FOR CINCINNATI GUYS, FADE THEM TO THE BANK!
The Hawaii Warriors looked like complete crap last week in a lacklustre win over Washington State (I was on the Cougars and won back some of my cash on them) and I am guessing that is why less than 30% of the public is going to be backing them in this game. Having said that, this is a team that has no business really playing in a Bowl Game this season as most pre-season expert selections had them finishing 5th or 6th in the WAC Conference after losing Colt Brennana and long time head coach June Jones but this team has fought hard all season, they have cost me money when I bet against them and I think this is more like their Bowl game than whatever Bowl Game they end up playing in. The Warriors have won four of their last five games and although their opponents have been of the lowest possible caliber in college football, a win is a win and these guys have been winning. The Warriors once again finished with a home winning ATS record going 3-2 ATS in this stadium and like I have already talked about, the final home game of the season is always a special one for this program. The last time Cincinnati was here in 2002 they were 20-19 losers and I would not be surprised to see an almost exact same scoreline in this one. Hawaii comes into this game averaging 38.3 points per game in their last three games and most of those points have come off defensive forced turnovers that has given the offense great field position to work with. In those games, the offense also averages 393.7 total yards of offense per game in their last three games for 6.0 yards per play in those games. Cincinnati's defense is the best in the Big East and they showed it to us many times in the final few weeks of the season as they have allowed only 17.0 points per game in their last three games and have allowed only 266.3 total yards of offense per game in those games on 4.5 yards per play. So who the hell is going to score in this game? On the ground, Hawaii never has and never will have success running the ball as they average only 92.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games on only 2.8 yards per carry in those games. The Bearcats defense shouldn't be worried about the Hawaii run game because they have allowed only 102.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have allowed only 3.4 yards per carry in those games. So once again we are gathered here today to wed...to watch the Hawaii pass offense at work. The Warriors have completed 64.3% of their passes the last three games and in those games have managed to average a whopping 9.2 yards per pass attempt. I don't know how much of that is going to help here because the Cincinnati secondary is vicious (although not lately) and they can come up with huge plays at any given time. Having said that, the Bearcats have allowed their last three opposing QB's to complete only 49.4% of their passes for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt in those games and the Warriors are better off making sure they secure the ball and move the chains rather than hit the big home run plays like they have done the last three games this season. Cincinnati does have a very good pass rush as they have 10 sacks in their last three games and they should be able to get some pressure on the Hawaii QB's who have also been sacked 10 times in their last three games and who will have to be alert in this game to avoid all the mistakes. Even with all that pressure, the Warriors QB's have thrown only 1 interception and have stayed out of trouble for the most part of those games. Hawaii also has a problem with fumbles having fumbled the ball 7 times in their last three games and having lost 4 of those fumbles along the way. The thing with that however is that Cincinnati has forced a grand total of zero fumbles in their last three games and they have not been as aggressive as they were earlier in the season for some reason. If you can't take the ball away from Hawaii you are not going to win and certainly not going to beat them by more than 7 points. Please keep in mind that Hawaii is playing their biggest game of the season and this is the equivalent of a Bowl Game for these guys. The Warriors have scored 26.7 points per first half in their last three games and if Cincinnati is snoozing like I think they will be once this game starts, they are going to be in for one hell of a surprise playing from behind. Hawaii wants this game badly and I think they are going to win one for the new coach.
The world is going to be on Cincinnati in this game and I can kind of see why. Having said that, this is a classic letdown game for an East Coast team ending their regular season with a vacation in Honolulu. We have seen these teams crash and burn so many times in the past that I won't even go where I wan't to go with this stuff. Why the hell is Cincinnati favored by only seven points in this game? Vegas knows exactly what they are doing here and they have done it to us in the past. Let me take you back to 2004: Michigan State came here and lost 41-38 as a -7 point favorite. 2005: San Diego State came here and lost 49-38 as a -1.5 underdog. 2006: Oregon State came here and barely won 35-32 as +8.5 dogs. 2007: Washington came here and lost 35-28 as -14 point underdogs. Okay so you get the point by now that season finales mean a lot to the Hawaii Warriors program because they usually get to play a bigger conference team heading into their Bowl Game or end of season. Cincinnati has been fantastic in non-conference games over the last few seasons and they have been very good on the road versus teams with winning home records. However, Hawaii has not covered the spread in any of their last 5 non-conference games and like I said before, changes have been made and the program is ready to win another big game against a big name conference school. HAWAII LATE NIGHT ONE MORE TIME BOYS!
Trend of the Game: Hawaii is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.
Hawaii 24, Cincinnati 23
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The Hawaii Warriors looked like complete crap last week in a lacklustre win over Washington State (I was on the Cougars and won back some of my cash on them) and I am guessing that is why less than 30% of the public is going to be backing them in this game. Having said that, this is a team that has no business really playing in a Bowl Game this season as most pre-season expert selections had them finishing 5th or 6th in the WAC Conference after losing Colt Brennana and long time head coach June Jones but this team has fought hard all season, they have cost me money when I bet against them and I think this is more like their Bowl game than whatever Bowl Game they end up playing in. The Warriors have won four of their last five games and although their opponents have been of the lowest possible caliber in college football, a win is a win and these guys have been winning. The Warriors once again finished with a home winning ATS record going 3-2 ATS in this stadium and like I have already talked about, the final home game of the season is always a special one for this program. The last time Cincinnati was here in 2002 they were 20-19 losers and I would not be surprised to see an almost exact same scoreline in this one. Hawaii comes into this game averaging 38.3 points per game in their last three games and most of those points have come off defensive forced turnovers that has given the offense great field position to work with. In those games, the offense also averages 393.7 total yards of offense per game in their last three games for 6.0 yards per play in those games. Cincinnati's defense is the best in the Big East and they showed it to us many times in the final few weeks of the season as they have allowed only 17.0 points per game in their last three games and have allowed only 266.3 total yards of offense per game in those games on 4.5 yards per play. So who the hell is going to score in this game? On the ground, Hawaii never has and never will have success running the ball as they average only 92.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games on only 2.8 yards per carry in those games. The Bearcats defense shouldn't be worried about the Hawaii run game because they have allowed only 102.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have allowed only 3.4 yards per carry in those games. So once again we are gathered here today to wed...to watch the Hawaii pass offense at work. The Warriors have completed 64.3% of their passes the last three games and in those games have managed to average a whopping 9.2 yards per pass attempt. I don't know how much of that is going to help here because the Cincinnati secondary is vicious (although not lately) and they can come up with huge plays at any given time. Having said that, the Bearcats have allowed their last three opposing QB's to complete only 49.4% of their passes for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt in those games and the Warriors are better off making sure they secure the ball and move the chains rather than hit the big home run plays like they have done the last three games this season. Cincinnati does have a very good pass rush as they have 10 sacks in their last three games and they should be able to get some pressure on the Hawaii QB's who have also been sacked 10 times in their last three games and who will have to be alert in this game to avoid all the mistakes. Even with all that pressure, the Warriors QB's have thrown only 1 interception and have stayed out of trouble for the most part of those games. Hawaii also has a problem with fumbles having fumbled the ball 7 times in their last three games and having lost 4 of those fumbles along the way. The thing with that however is that Cincinnati has forced a grand total of zero fumbles in their last three games and they have not been as aggressive as they were earlier in the season for some reason. If you can't take the ball away from Hawaii you are not going to win and certainly not going to beat them by more than 7 points. Please keep in mind that Hawaii is playing their biggest game of the season and this is the equivalent of a Bowl Game for these guys. The Warriors have scored 26.7 points per first half in their last three games and if Cincinnati is snoozing like I think they will be once this game starts, they are going to be in for one hell of a surprise playing from behind. Hawaii wants this game badly and I think they are going to win one for the new coach.
The world is going to be on Cincinnati in this game and I can kind of see why. Having said that, this is a classic letdown game for an East Coast team ending their regular season with a vacation in Honolulu. We have seen these teams crash and burn so many times in the past that I won't even go where I wan't to go with this stuff. Why the hell is Cincinnati favored by only seven points in this game? Vegas knows exactly what they are doing here and they have done it to us in the past. Let me take you back to 2004: Michigan State came here and lost 41-38 as a -7 point favorite. 2005: San Diego State came here and lost 49-38 as a -1.5 underdog. 2006: Oregon State came here and barely won 35-32 as +8.5 dogs. 2007: Washington came here and lost 35-28 as -14 point underdogs. Okay so you get the point by now that season finales mean a lot to the Hawaii Warriors program because they usually get to play a bigger conference team heading into their Bowl Game or end of season. Cincinnati has been fantastic in non-conference games over the last few seasons and they have been very good on the road versus teams with winning home records. However, Hawaii has not covered the spread in any of their last 5 non-conference games and like I said before, changes have been made and the program is ready to win another big game against a big name conference school. HAWAII LATE NIGHT ONE MORE TIME BOYS!
Trend of the Game: Hawaii is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.
Hawaii 24, Cincinnati 23
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alwatts
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