MistaFlava's 2008 CFB Record: 32-32-1 ATS (-149.80 Units) 50%
Another disastrous play for me last week on Thursday Night Football has me down even more cash on the season. Now my goal for the rest of the year is to get some back little by little with a few big plays here and there. I have done very well in Bowl Season in years past and I expect to do the same this time around as I will be wagering on every single Bowl Game and hopefully can reach come pretty damn good numbers. I can't explain my failures in College Football the last two seasons but I will keep plucking away and probably re-think my strategy in the off-season because the losses this season and last have been bad. Hopefully I can tear it up this week heading into the post-season.
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 100 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 4-6 ATS (+3.20 Units)
Week 2: 3-3 ATS (-12.50 Units)
Week 3: 2-3-1 ATS (-29.00 Units)
Week 4: 3-4 ATS (+7.00 Units)
Week 5: 5-2 ATS (-16.00 Units)
Week 6: 5-3 ATS (+27.50 Units)
Week 7: 0-1 ATS (-11.00 Units)
Week 8: ---No Plays---
Week 9: 5-4 ATS (-64.50 Units)
Week 10: 1-1 ATS (-6.00 Units)
Week 11: ---No Plays---
Week 12: 4-4 ATS (+7.50 Units)
Week 13: 0-1 ATS (-55.00 Units)
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. I am due for a huge week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Another disastrous play for me last week on Thursday Night Football has me down even more cash on the season. Now my goal for the rest of the year is to get some back little by little with a few big plays here and there. I have done very well in Bowl Season in years past and I expect to do the same this time around as I will be wagering on every single Bowl Game and hopefully can reach come pretty damn good numbers. I can't explain my failures in College Football the last two seasons but I will keep plucking away and probably re-think my strategy in the off-season because the losses this season and last have been bad. Hopefully I can tear it up this week heading into the post-season.
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 100 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 4-6 ATS (+3.20 Units)
Week 2: 3-3 ATS (-12.50 Units)
Week 3: 2-3-1 ATS (-29.00 Units)
Week 4: 3-4 ATS (+7.00 Units)
Week 5: 5-2 ATS (-16.00 Units)
Week 6: 5-3 ATS (+27.50 Units)
Week 7: 0-1 ATS (-11.00 Units)
Week 8: ---No Plays---
Week 9: 5-4 ATS (-64.50 Units)
Week 10: 1-1 ATS (-6.00 Units)
Week 11: ---No Plays---
Week 12: 4-4 ATS (+7.50 Units)
Week 13: 0-1 ATS (-55.00 Units)
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. I am due for a huge week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Tuesday, November 25
Ball State Cardinals -10.5 (5 Units)
Ball State Cardinals -10.5 (5 Units)
The Western Michigan Broncos know that their seasons is on the line here. Sure they will probably play in the INTERNATIONAL BOWL anyways but a win here would tie them for the division lead with Ball State and probably put them in the MAC Conference Championship Game. The Broncos are one of the hottest teams in College Football right now (apart from Ball State) and winning this game would be huge for them. They are 9-2 SU on the season and have won 9 of their last 10 games with their only loss coming at Central Michigan by 10 points as a -1.5 point underdog. Despite winning their last three games (all of them played at home by the way), the Broncos have not been on the road since that loss to the Chippewas and I do question their play on the road this season where they went 2-3 ATS on the year and had some very shaky performances. Western Michigan comes into this game averaging 28.8 points per road game this season and in those games they have managed to also average 394.2 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play in those games. Ball State's defense is a big part of why they have been so successful as they have allowed only 17.4 points per home game this season and allowed only 348.2 total yards of offense per game on 5.3 yards per play in those games. Western Michigan is a one dimensional team away from home as they can barely run the ball but have a very powerful passing offense. That won't work in this game. The Broncos comes into this game averaging only 64.0 rushing yards per road game this season on 2.8 yards per carry. Pathetic. Ball State has allowed visiting opponents to rush for 168.4 yards per home game this season on 4.6 yards per carry which is pretty damn bad but the Broncos don't have the running attack to take advantage of this. In the air, Western Michigan has completed 66.8% of their passes on the road this season for 6.9 yards per pass attempt. They have had good pass protection allowing only 1.2 sacks per game and throwing little or no interceptions. That could all change tonight as Ball State's pass defense has allowed visiting opponents to complete 56.3% of their passes this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt with 2.0 sacks per home game and 5 interceptions in those games. My big concern with the Broncos has been their inability to hold onto the ball as they have lost 6 fumbles in five road games this season and that just won't work against a Ball State team that has forced 5 fumbles in 5 home games on the year. I also don't like the fact that Western Michigan averages a whopping 7.0 penalty yards per road game which has cost them 53.2 penalty yards per game in those games. The Broncos can score some points but I don't think they can win on the road nor do I think they can match up with the Cardinals offense in this game. Ball State has allowed only 6.0 points per first half at home this season and their defense is going to allow the offense to pull away in this game.
The Ball State Cardinals are going to play for the MAC Conference Championship next week, unless they find a way to lose this game and allow the Broncos to tie them for the division lead. Having said that, the Cardinals are not thinking about that heading into this game, they are thinking about doing what they have done all season long and that is win football games and cover the spread. As a matter of fact, not only is Ball State a perfect 11-0 SU on the season, they are also a very impressive 8-2 ATS in those games and had it not been for playing in such a weak conference, these guys could very well have played in a huge Bowl Game, which they obviously are not (when was the last time a MAC Conference team cracked one of the big Bowl Games? Honest question). Let me tell you a bit more about the Cardinals home games. They beat Northeastern at home by 34 points, they beat Navy by 12 points here, they beat Kent State here by 21 points, they beat Eastern Michigan here by 22 points and they beat Northern Illinois here by 31 points. The Cardinals come into this game averaging a whopping 41.4 points per home game this season and they have managed to get that done on 467.0 total yards of offense per game and 7.7 yards per play in those games. I would like to think someone can stop this offense at home but let me tell you now it won't be the Broncos from Western Michigan who have allowed a whopping 28.8 points per road game this season and who have allowed 396.0 total yards of offense on 5.6 yards per play in those very same games. On the ground is where the Cardinals make most of their money as they have averaged 178.4 rushing yards per home game this season on 5.5 yards per carry in those games. Western Michigan has done a good job against the run allowing 145.8 rushing yards per game on the road this season on 3.8 yards per carry in those games. That should allow the Cardinals to move their attack to the air in this game as QB Nate David has completed 71.5% of his passes at home this season for 10.0 yards per pass attempt in those games. He has been sacked only 3 times at home all season and thrown only 3 interceptions with all that time to pass. Western Michigan's pass defense has allowed road opponents to complete 58.4% of their passes this season for 7.8 yards per pass attempt which means the Broncos allow way too many big plays, something that should definitely work to the advantage of Ball State in this game. What I really like about this Cardinals team is that they have not lost a single fumble at home all season nor have they even fumbled the ball one single time (recovered or not recovered). If you thought that was impressive how about the fact that Ball State has averaged only 1.6 penalties per home game this season on 17.6 penalty yards per home game. This is a team that has averaged a whopping 20.8 points per first half when playing at home this season and I see them taking another big lead in this game and making a statement heading into the MAC Conference Championship Game.
The points look like way too much yet the betting public is still all over this. I see something like 70% of the public betting on Ball State right now and it did have me a bit worried to start with but I have learned to just bet what your gut tells you in college football regardless of what the public percentages say. Watch Ball State win this game by 10? That would be very MAC Conference-ish and it wouldn't surprise me one bit. I have to say that Western Michigan, over the span of the last two or three seasons have been a very good team to bet on when playing on the road against teams with winning home records but my biggest concern with this bunch is that they have covered the spread in only 3 of their last 13 MAC Conference games and they have not been a good team to bet on following decent defensive performances where they allow 20 points or less the game before. Ball State on the other hand has been one of the most profitable college football wagers of 2008 and I plan on that continuing the remainder of the season. Nobody is beating this guys within the conference. They are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games versus teams with a winning record. I have to point out the difference in penatlies here as Western Michigan averages more than 7.0 penalties per road game while Ball State averages only 1.6 penalties per home game this season. Ball State crushes these guys.
Trend of the Game: Ball State is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games versus a team with a winning record.
Ball State 38, Western Michigan 21
I wanted to post a full week of plays but ran out of time, will post the others tomorrow!
:toast:
The Ball State Cardinals are going to play for the MAC Conference Championship next week, unless they find a way to lose this game and allow the Broncos to tie them for the division lead. Having said that, the Cardinals are not thinking about that heading into this game, they are thinking about doing what they have done all season long and that is win football games and cover the spread. As a matter of fact, not only is Ball State a perfect 11-0 SU on the season, they are also a very impressive 8-2 ATS in those games and had it not been for playing in such a weak conference, these guys could very well have played in a huge Bowl Game, which they obviously are not (when was the last time a MAC Conference team cracked one of the big Bowl Games? Honest question). Let me tell you a bit more about the Cardinals home games. They beat Northeastern at home by 34 points, they beat Navy by 12 points here, they beat Kent State here by 21 points, they beat Eastern Michigan here by 22 points and they beat Northern Illinois here by 31 points. The Cardinals come into this game averaging a whopping 41.4 points per home game this season and they have managed to get that done on 467.0 total yards of offense per game and 7.7 yards per play in those games. I would like to think someone can stop this offense at home but let me tell you now it won't be the Broncos from Western Michigan who have allowed a whopping 28.8 points per road game this season and who have allowed 396.0 total yards of offense on 5.6 yards per play in those very same games. On the ground is where the Cardinals make most of their money as they have averaged 178.4 rushing yards per home game this season on 5.5 yards per carry in those games. Western Michigan has done a good job against the run allowing 145.8 rushing yards per game on the road this season on 3.8 yards per carry in those games. That should allow the Cardinals to move their attack to the air in this game as QB Nate David has completed 71.5% of his passes at home this season for 10.0 yards per pass attempt in those games. He has been sacked only 3 times at home all season and thrown only 3 interceptions with all that time to pass. Western Michigan's pass defense has allowed road opponents to complete 58.4% of their passes this season for 7.8 yards per pass attempt which means the Broncos allow way too many big plays, something that should definitely work to the advantage of Ball State in this game. What I really like about this Cardinals team is that they have not lost a single fumble at home all season nor have they even fumbled the ball one single time (recovered or not recovered). If you thought that was impressive how about the fact that Ball State has averaged only 1.6 penalties per home game this season on 17.6 penalty yards per home game. This is a team that has averaged a whopping 20.8 points per first half when playing at home this season and I see them taking another big lead in this game and making a statement heading into the MAC Conference Championship Game.
The points look like way too much yet the betting public is still all over this. I see something like 70% of the public betting on Ball State right now and it did have me a bit worried to start with but I have learned to just bet what your gut tells you in college football regardless of what the public percentages say. Watch Ball State win this game by 10? That would be very MAC Conference-ish and it wouldn't surprise me one bit. I have to say that Western Michigan, over the span of the last two or three seasons have been a very good team to bet on when playing on the road against teams with winning home records but my biggest concern with this bunch is that they have covered the spread in only 3 of their last 13 MAC Conference games and they have not been a good team to bet on following decent defensive performances where they allow 20 points or less the game before. Ball State on the other hand has been one of the most profitable college football wagers of 2008 and I plan on that continuing the remainder of the season. Nobody is beating this guys within the conference. They are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games versus teams with a winning record. I have to point out the difference in penatlies here as Western Michigan averages more than 7.0 penalties per road game while Ball State averages only 1.6 penalties per home game this season. Ball State crushes these guys.
Trend of the Game: Ball State is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games versus a team with a winning record.
Ball State 38, Western Michigan 21
I wanted to post a full week of plays but ran out of time, will post the others tomorrow!
:toast:
