MistaFlava's 2008 CFB Record: 33-32-1 ATS (-144.80 Units)
Another disastrous play for me last week on Thursday Night Football has me down even more cash on the season. Now my goal for the rest of the year is to get some back little by little with a few big plays here and there. I have done very well in Bowl Season in years past and I expect to do the same this time around as I will be wagering on every single Bowl Game and hopefully can reach come pretty damn good numbers. I can't explain my failures in College Football the last two seasons but I will keep plucking away and probably re-think my strategy in the off-season because the losses this season and last have been bad. Hopefully I can tear it up this week heading into the post-season.
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 100 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 4-6 ATS (+3.20 Units)
Week 2: 3-3 ATS (-12.50 Units)
Week 3: 2-3-1 ATS (-29.00 Units)
Week 4: 3-4 ATS (+7.00 Units)
Week 5: 5-2 ATS (-16.00 Units)
Week 6: 5-3 ATS (+27.50 Units)
Week 7: 0-1 ATS (-11.00 Units)
Week 8: ---No Plays---
Week 9: 5-4 ATS (-64.50 Units)
Week 10: 1-1 ATS (-6.00 Units)
Week 11: ---No Plays---
Week 12: 4-4 ATS (+7.50 Units)
Week 13: 0-1 ATS (-55.00 Units)
Week 14: 1-0 ATS (+5.00 Units)
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. I am due for a huge week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Another disastrous play for me last week on Thursday Night Football has me down even more cash on the season. Now my goal for the rest of the year is to get some back little by little with a few big plays here and there. I have done very well in Bowl Season in years past and I expect to do the same this time around as I will be wagering on every single Bowl Game and hopefully can reach come pretty damn good numbers. I can't explain my failures in College Football the last two seasons but I will keep plucking away and probably re-think my strategy in the off-season because the losses this season and last have been bad. Hopefully I can tear it up this week heading into the post-season.
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 100 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 4-6 ATS (+3.20 Units)
Week 2: 3-3 ATS (-12.50 Units)
Week 3: 2-3-1 ATS (-29.00 Units)
Week 4: 3-4 ATS (+7.00 Units)
Week 5: 5-2 ATS (-16.00 Units)
Week 6: 5-3 ATS (+27.50 Units)
Week 7: 0-1 ATS (-11.00 Units)
Week 8: ---No Plays---
Week 9: 5-4 ATS (-64.50 Units)
Week 10: 1-1 ATS (-6.00 Units)
Week 11: ---No Plays---
Week 12: 4-4 ATS (+7.50 Units)
Week 13: 0-1 ATS (-55.00 Units)
Week 14: 1-0 ATS (+5.00 Units)
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. I am due for a huge week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Tuesday, November 25
Ball State Cardinals -10.5 (5 Units)
(as posted in Tuesday thread)
Ball State 38, Western Michigan 21
Ball State Cardinals -10.5 (5 Units)
(as posted in Tuesday thread)
The Western Michigan Broncos know that their seasons is on the line here. Sure they will probably play in the INTERNATIONAL BOWL anyways but a win here would tie them for the division lead with Ball State and probably put them in the MAC Conference Championship Game. The Broncos are one of the hottest teams in College Football right now (apart from Ball State) and winning this game would be huge for them. They are 9-2 SU on the season and have won 9 of their last 10 games with their only loss coming at Central Michigan by 10 points as a -1.5 point underdog. Despite winning their last three games (all of them played at home by the way), the Broncos have not been on the road since that loss to the Chippewas and I do question their play on the road this season where they went 2-3 ATS on the year and had some very shaky performances. Western Michigan comes into this game averaging 28.8 points per road game this season and in those games they have managed to also average 394.2 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play in those games. Ball State's defense is a big part of why they have been so successful as they have allowed only 17.4 points per home game this season and allowed only 348.2 total yards of offense per game on 5.3 yards per play in those games. Western Michigan is a one dimensional team away from home as they can barely run the ball but have a very powerful passing offense. That won't work in this game. The Broncos comes into this game averaging only 64.0 rushing yards per road game this season on 2.8 yards per carry. Pathetic. Ball State has allowed visiting opponents to rush for 168.4 yards per home game this season on 4.6 yards per carry which is pretty damn bad but the Broncos don't have the running attack to take advantage of this. In the air, Western Michigan has completed 66.8% of their passes on the road this season for 6.9 yards per pass attempt. They have had good pass protection allowing only 1.2 sacks per game and throwing little or no interceptions. That could all change tonight as Ball State's pass defense has allowed visiting opponents to complete 56.3% of their passes this season for 6.2 yards per pass attempt with 2.0 sacks per home game and 5 interceptions in those games. My big concern with the Broncos has been their inability to hold onto the ball as they have lost 6 fumbles in five road games this season and that just won't work against a Ball State team that has forced 5 fumbles in 5 home games on the year. I also don't like the fact that Western Michigan averages a whopping 7.0 penalty yards per road game which has cost them 53.2 penalty yards per game in those games. The Broncos can score some points but I don't think they can win on the road nor do I think they can match up with the Cardinals offense in this game. Ball State has allowed only 6.0 points per first half at home this season and their defense is going to allow the offense to pull away in this game.
The Ball State Cardinals are going to play for the MAC Conference Championship next week, unless they find a way to lose this game and allow the Broncos to tie them for the division lead. Having said that, the Cardinals are not thinking about that heading into this game, they are thinking about doing what they have done all season long and that is win football games and cover the spread. As a matter of fact, not only is Ball State a perfect 11-0 SU on the season, they are also a very impressive 8-2 ATS in those games and had it not been for playing in such a weak conference, these guys could very well have played in a huge Bowl Game, which they obviously are not (when was the last time a MAC Conference team cracked one of the big Bowl Games? Honest question). Let me tell you a bit more about the Cardinals home games. They beat Northeastern at home by 34 points, they beat Navy by 12 points here, they beat Kent State here by 21 points, they beat Eastern Michigan here by 22 points and they beat Northern Illinois here by 31 points. The Cardinals come into this game averaging a whopping 41.4 points per home game this season and they have managed to get that done on 467.0 total yards of offense per game and 7.7 yards per play in those games. I would like to think someone can stop this offense at home but let me tell you now it won't be the Broncos from Western Michigan who have allowed a whopping 28.8 points per road game this season and who have allowed 396.0 total yards of offense on 5.6 yards per play in those very same games. On the ground is where the Cardinals make most of their money as they have averaged 178.4 rushing yards per home game this season on 5.5 yards per carry in those games. Western Michigan has done a good job against the run allowing 145.8 rushing yards per game on the road this season on 3.8 yards per carry in those games. That should allow the Cardinals to move their attack to the air in this game as QB Nate David has completed 71.5% of his passes at home this season for 10.0 yards per pass attempt in those games. He has been sacked only 3 times at home all season and thrown only 3 interceptions with all that time to pass. Western Michigan's pass defense has allowed road opponents to complete 58.4% of their passes this season for 7.8 yards per pass attempt which means the Broncos allow way too many big plays, something that should definitely work to the advantage of Ball State in this game. What I really like about this Cardinals team is that they have not lost a single fumble at home all season nor have they even fumbled the ball one single time (recovered or not recovered). If you thought that was impressive how about the fact that Ball State has averaged only 1.6 penalties per home game this season on 17.6 penalty yards per home game. This is a team that has averaged a whopping 20.8 points per first half when playing at home this season and I see them taking another big lead in this game and making a statement heading into the MAC Conference Championship Game.
The points look like way too much yet the betting public is still all over this. I see something like 70% of the public betting on Ball State right now and it did have me a bit worried to start with but I have learned to just bet what your gut tells you in college football regardless of what the public percentages say. Watch Ball State win this game by 10? That would be very MAC Conference-ish and it wouldn't surprise me one bit. I have to say that Western Michigan, over the span of the last two or three seasons have been a very good team to bet on when playing on the road against teams with winning home records but my biggest concern with this bunch is that they have covered the spread in only 3 of their last 13 MAC Conference games and they have not been a good team to bet on following decent defensive performances where they allow 20 points or less the game before. Ball State on the other hand has been one of the most profitable college football wagers of 2008 and I plan on that continuing the remainder of the season. Nobody is beating this guys within the conference. They are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games versus teams with a winning record. I have to point out the difference in penatlies here as Western Michigan averages more than 7.0 penalties per road game while Ball State averages only 1.6 penalties per home game this season. Ball State crushes these guys.
The Ball State Cardinals are going to play for the MAC Conference Championship next week, unless they find a way to lose this game and allow the Broncos to tie them for the division lead. Having said that, the Cardinals are not thinking about that heading into this game, they are thinking about doing what they have done all season long and that is win football games and cover the spread. As a matter of fact, not only is Ball State a perfect 11-0 SU on the season, they are also a very impressive 8-2 ATS in those games and had it not been for playing in such a weak conference, these guys could very well have played in a huge Bowl Game, which they obviously are not (when was the last time a MAC Conference team cracked one of the big Bowl Games? Honest question). Let me tell you a bit more about the Cardinals home games. They beat Northeastern at home by 34 points, they beat Navy by 12 points here, they beat Kent State here by 21 points, they beat Eastern Michigan here by 22 points and they beat Northern Illinois here by 31 points. The Cardinals come into this game averaging a whopping 41.4 points per home game this season and they have managed to get that done on 467.0 total yards of offense per game and 7.7 yards per play in those games. I would like to think someone can stop this offense at home but let me tell you now it won't be the Broncos from Western Michigan who have allowed a whopping 28.8 points per road game this season and who have allowed 396.0 total yards of offense on 5.6 yards per play in those very same games. On the ground is where the Cardinals make most of their money as they have averaged 178.4 rushing yards per home game this season on 5.5 yards per carry in those games. Western Michigan has done a good job against the run allowing 145.8 rushing yards per game on the road this season on 3.8 yards per carry in those games. That should allow the Cardinals to move their attack to the air in this game as QB Nate David has completed 71.5% of his passes at home this season for 10.0 yards per pass attempt in those games. He has been sacked only 3 times at home all season and thrown only 3 interceptions with all that time to pass. Western Michigan's pass defense has allowed road opponents to complete 58.4% of their passes this season for 7.8 yards per pass attempt which means the Broncos allow way too many big plays, something that should definitely work to the advantage of Ball State in this game. What I really like about this Cardinals team is that they have not lost a single fumble at home all season nor have they even fumbled the ball one single time (recovered or not recovered). If you thought that was impressive how about the fact that Ball State has averaged only 1.6 penalties per home game this season on 17.6 penalty yards per home game. This is a team that has averaged a whopping 20.8 points per first half when playing at home this season and I see them taking another big lead in this game and making a statement heading into the MAC Conference Championship Game.
The points look like way too much yet the betting public is still all over this. I see something like 70% of the public betting on Ball State right now and it did have me a bit worried to start with but I have learned to just bet what your gut tells you in college football regardless of what the public percentages say. Watch Ball State win this game by 10? That would be very MAC Conference-ish and it wouldn't surprise me one bit. I have to say that Western Michigan, over the span of the last two or three seasons have been a very good team to bet on when playing on the road against teams with winning home records but my biggest concern with this bunch is that they have covered the spread in only 3 of their last 13 MAC Conference games and they have not been a good team to bet on following decent defensive performances where they allow 20 points or less the game before. Ball State on the other hand has been one of the most profitable college football wagers of 2008 and I plan on that continuing the remainder of the season. Nobody is beating this guys within the conference. They are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games versus teams with a winning record. I have to point out the difference in penatlies here as Western Michigan averages more than 7.0 penalties per road game while Ball State averages only 1.6 penalties per home game this season. Ball State crushes these guys.
Trend of the Game: Ball State is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games versus a team with a winning record.
Ball State 38, Western Michigan 21
Thursday, November 27
Texas A&M Aggies +35 (5 Units)
The Texas A&M Aggies are having their worst season in a very long time and although it was expected, it's just weird to talk about this game and have such a high spread to look at. I hate betting on bad teams but for some reason I can't seem to resist this big spread in this big game. I am not thrilled to make this wager but I think the Aggies have held their own in more than one game this season as they are 4-7 SU with a 4-7 ATS record. On the road they grabbed a win over New Mexico earlier this season, they lost at Oklahoma State by 28 points, they beat Iowa State by 14 and they lost at Baylor by 20 points. So that means that half of this teams wins this season have come away from home and we have no choice but to back them in this spot here. I mean this is the same team that lost to Texas Tech by only 18 earlier this season and the only time they really got killed was against the Oklahoma Sooners in a 38 point thrashing. NOT SO BAD AT ALL IF YOU ASK ME! The Aggies come into this game averaging a decent 26.5 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done on 349.6 total yards of offense per game and 5.3 yards per play in those games this season. We all know that Texas can play some pretty damn good defense and they have shown that by allowing 19.5 points per game this season on 348.5 total yards of offense per game on 5.3 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Aggies have really struggled this season and they have managed to average only 98.7 rushing yards per game this season on 3.2 yards per carry. It doesn't help much when you are going up against a defense that has allowed only 82.5 rushing yards per game this season on only 3.1 yards per carry. That should put the bulk of the load on the Aggies QB's, who as a unit this season have completed 61.3% of their passes for 7.3 yards per pass attempt which is not bad at all. The problem all season has been the protection these guys are not getting from their offensive line as they have been sacked 33 times in 11 games and that has been a direct result of the 12 interceptions thrown all season by these guys. Texas has actually not been all that good in their pass defense as they have allowed opponents to complete 57.1% of their passes this season for 6.8 yards per pass attempt and I think QB Jerrod Johnson is going to have more than a few chances to hookup with WR Ryan Tannehill on some deep passes. The Longhorns pass rush has been outstanding all season and JJ has to know what he has coming as they have 33 sacks of their own in their 11 games played. However, the Horns have picked off only 6 passes all season and unless you can take the ball away from the Aggies on a consistent basis you are not going to win by 35 points or more. The Aggies also have problems holding onto the ball as they have fumbled more times than you could every imagine this season but the Longhorns have recovered only 9 fumbles all season and again unless you can take that ball away from these guys they are going to hang around and make a game of things. I think the Aggies offense is probably going to be motivated enough to keep this game close. I know the rivalry just doesn't have its usual spark this season but that doesn't mean the Aggies are not looking forward to this game. Keep in mind, their season is over and everything they do is for fun now.
The Texas Longhorns are definitely a National Title Contender but you would have to think and like to think that they have much bigger and better things to worry about then blowing away the Texas A&M Aggies, the poor Texas A&M Aggies. Not only are the Horns going to play this game in the comfort of their own home (where being too relaxed has always been a concern for these guys but they still have a good shot of playing in the BIG 12 Conference Championship Game should things go wrong with some of the other teams in this Division and all they can really do is show up, win the game and hope for the best. Oklahoma, Texas Tech and the Longhorns are all tied at the top of the division and because I don't see any of them losing this weekend, it looks like we are heading to some tiebreakers. Lets take a look back at some of the Horns home games this season that saw them beat Rice by 42 points, Arkansas by 42 points, Missouri by 25 points, Oklahoma State by 4 points and Baylor by 24 points. That makes them 4-2 ATS at home this season but again I expect them to somewhat play down at the level of their opponent here. Texas comes into the game averaging 43.5 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 471.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.5 yards per play in those games. Texas A&M has to make some stops in this game if they want a chance at the cover and I don't think it will come easy for them as they have allowed 36.4 points per game this season and have allowed 455.2 total yards of offense per game on 6.3 yards per play. What you have to understand however is that this is not about their defense keeping up but more about their offense keeping up in this game. On the ground, the Horns average 173.4 rushing yards per game this season and they have done that on 4.4 yards per carry which bodes well for them as the Aggies have allowed 219.5 rushing yards per game this season on a whopping 5.2 yards per carry. Why is that an advantage for us? Well first of all running the ball that much keeps the clock moving at a snails pace which is what we need. In the air, QB Colt McCoy has completed 77.4% of his passes this season for 9.1 yards per pass attempt and he has been protected all season having been sacked only 11 times in 11 games. When you talk about the Aggies pass defense you talk about a unit that has allowed opponents to complete 64.2% of their passes this season for 7.7 yards per pass attempt. Yes they allow some big plays on defense but they do compensate by making big plays of their own. The Aggies have had a decent pass rush going most of the season even though it has only produced 13 sacks in 11 games on the year. The secondary has actually made more big plays than the Texas defense as they have picked off 8 passes to the Longhorns 6 passes. You have to admire the way the Horns play I mean they have lost only 6 fumbles all season long, they don't make many mistakes but with so much pressure on them to win this game we could see a lot more turnovers than usual. The Aggies are not fundamentally sound on defense but they do go for home runs and that has resulted in them forcing 18 fumbles this season and managing to recover 9 of those fumbles. I don't doubt the Horns can throw and pass the ball all night and have some success. However, I do see the Aggies defense coming up with some big plays and holding the Horns to field goals instead of touchdowns on a few important drives. Texas is a good team and they ae 35 points better than the Aggies but not in this game, not here, not now.
In what is sure to be the highest spread ever in this series, well since I can remember anyways, do you really think the Horns are going to walk all over the Aggies like everything on paper would suggest? I certainly don't. Texas has been one of my most profitable investments this season but I just can't back them with so many points on the line and with the whole Thanksgiving thing going on right now. This is one of those games the Horns will probably just be happy winning and getting the heck out of this without any injuries. I mean when you are chasing a National Title, the last things you want is for players to get too fired up against a much weaker opponent (and usualy rival). Texas A&M has been very good coming off losses as they are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games that follow a straight up loss. I think they have had enough time to prepare for the biggest game of their season and their offense is actually going to shock quite a few people by putting up at least 28 points on the Horns. Everywhere you look, on paper and on tv, the Horns have all the advantages in the world. The home team in this series is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and Texas A&M is 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Austin. Having said that, the Aggies have nothing lose and they will keep it closer than people think.
Trend of the Game: Texas A&M is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games that follow a straight up loss the game before.
Texas 52, Texas A&M 36
The Texas Longhorns are definitely a National Title Contender but you would have to think and like to think that they have much bigger and better things to worry about then blowing away the Texas A&M Aggies, the poor Texas A&M Aggies. Not only are the Horns going to play this game in the comfort of their own home (where being too relaxed has always been a concern for these guys but they still have a good shot of playing in the BIG 12 Conference Championship Game should things go wrong with some of the other teams in this Division and all they can really do is show up, win the game and hope for the best. Oklahoma, Texas Tech and the Longhorns are all tied at the top of the division and because I don't see any of them losing this weekend, it looks like we are heading to some tiebreakers. Lets take a look back at some of the Horns home games this season that saw them beat Rice by 42 points, Arkansas by 42 points, Missouri by 25 points, Oklahoma State by 4 points and Baylor by 24 points. That makes them 4-2 ATS at home this season but again I expect them to somewhat play down at the level of their opponent here. Texas comes into the game averaging 43.5 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 471.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.5 yards per play in those games. Texas A&M has to make some stops in this game if they want a chance at the cover and I don't think it will come easy for them as they have allowed 36.4 points per game this season and have allowed 455.2 total yards of offense per game on 6.3 yards per play. What you have to understand however is that this is not about their defense keeping up but more about their offense keeping up in this game. On the ground, the Horns average 173.4 rushing yards per game this season and they have done that on 4.4 yards per carry which bodes well for them as the Aggies have allowed 219.5 rushing yards per game this season on a whopping 5.2 yards per carry. Why is that an advantage for us? Well first of all running the ball that much keeps the clock moving at a snails pace which is what we need. In the air, QB Colt McCoy has completed 77.4% of his passes this season for 9.1 yards per pass attempt and he has been protected all season having been sacked only 11 times in 11 games. When you talk about the Aggies pass defense you talk about a unit that has allowed opponents to complete 64.2% of their passes this season for 7.7 yards per pass attempt. Yes they allow some big plays on defense but they do compensate by making big plays of their own. The Aggies have had a decent pass rush going most of the season even though it has only produced 13 sacks in 11 games on the year. The secondary has actually made more big plays than the Texas defense as they have picked off 8 passes to the Longhorns 6 passes. You have to admire the way the Horns play I mean they have lost only 6 fumbles all season long, they don't make many mistakes but with so much pressure on them to win this game we could see a lot more turnovers than usual. The Aggies are not fundamentally sound on defense but they do go for home runs and that has resulted in them forcing 18 fumbles this season and managing to recover 9 of those fumbles. I don't doubt the Horns can throw and pass the ball all night and have some success. However, I do see the Aggies defense coming up with some big plays and holding the Horns to field goals instead of touchdowns on a few important drives. Texas is a good team and they ae 35 points better than the Aggies but not in this game, not here, not now.
In what is sure to be the highest spread ever in this series, well since I can remember anyways, do you really think the Horns are going to walk all over the Aggies like everything on paper would suggest? I certainly don't. Texas has been one of my most profitable investments this season but I just can't back them with so many points on the line and with the whole Thanksgiving thing going on right now. This is one of those games the Horns will probably just be happy winning and getting the heck out of this without any injuries. I mean when you are chasing a National Title, the last things you want is for players to get too fired up against a much weaker opponent (and usualy rival). Texas A&M has been very good coming off losses as they are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games that follow a straight up loss. I think they have had enough time to prepare for the biggest game of their season and their offense is actually going to shock quite a few people by putting up at least 28 points on the Horns. Everywhere you look, on paper and on tv, the Horns have all the advantages in the world. The home team in this series is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and Texas A&M is 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Austin. Having said that, the Aggies have nothing lose and they will keep it closer than people think.
Trend of the Game: Texas A&M is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games that follow a straight up loss the game before.
Texas 52, Texas A&M 36
Friday, November 26
West Virginia Mountaineers -3.5 (10 Units)
West Virginia Mountaineers -3.5 (10 Units)
The West Virginia Mountaineers pretty much blew their chances of winning the Big East Conference when they lost to Cincinnati a few weeks ago but anything can happen at this point and they still have two games to play this season and should Cincinnati lose to Syracuse which is not really possible but you never know with the way thigns have gone down in the past in this conference. All the Mountaineers can do is keep playing, keep winning and put themselves in a position to play in yet another BCS Bowl Game. You and me both know this team is going to do all they can do to have one last crack at something good in college football. QB Pat White stayed behind for a reason and that was not to play in some New Years Day Bowl game. He wants the BCS and he wants it now, despite starting the season with all the aspirations to play in the BCS Championship Game. Who knows what could have been had Steve Slaton stuck around a bit longer. West Virginia has won 6 of their last 7 games overall (only loss was against Cincinnati) and they have just been torching opponents no the road (beat Louisville by 14 points and beat UConn by 22 points). West Virginia comes into this game averaging 31.0 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done on 384.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play in those games. The Pitt Panthers defense has somewhat had issues because the offense has at times struggled and they have allowed their last three opponents to score 22.7 points per game and have allowed those very same opponents to average 360.3 total yards of offense per game on 4.9 yards per play. On the ground, we all know the Neers can run the ball pretty damn well with Pat White as and Noel Devine as they average a whopping 230.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 5.1 yards per carry in those games. Now before you get all excited about Pittsburgh's run defense that has allowed 99.3 rushing yards per game the last three games on 2.8 yards per carry in those games, please keep in mind that the Panthers played against Cincinnati, Louisville and Notre Dame...none of which had a running attack like this one. Should things go to the air, QB Pat White has completed 55.2% of his passes the last three games for 6.9 yards per pass attempt in those games. He has been sacked 5 times and thrown only 1 interception in those games which has me thinking he is playing some damn good football right now. The Panthers defense has allowed their last three opponents to complete 59.6% of their passes for 6.9 yards per pass attempt. They have recorded 6 sacks and 2 interceptions in those games but you really have to pressure the Mountaineers if you want to have success stopping their run and pass combinations. I don't really trust Pat White having to throw the ball more than 20 times per game but he has done a pretty good as of late and we have to trust him in his final BACKYARD BRAWL ever. The Panthers have had success in recent weeks because they have forced and recovered a lot of fumbles but West Virginia, for a team that runs this much, has been very good at holding onto the ball and they have lost only 2 fumbles the last three games. They have also shown very good discipline by taking only 5.0 penalties per game in those games and that could take them a long way in a big rivalry game like this one. I think West Virginia is going to find a way to win this back and forth battle and I really look forward to watching Pat White one last time on Thanksgiving Thursday. He has been a treat to bet on over the years and this could be the very last time for me.
The Pitt Panthers have the exact same record as West Virginia Mountaineers heading into this game but the reason they cannot win the Big East Conference anymore is because they are 3-2 SU in Conference play and that puts them out of contention completely heading into this game. So what motivates these guys to show up and play today? Not much if you ask me. First of all this game is very early on the slate being played at 12 noon which could mean we see some snow or some very cold weather and that definitely favors the team that can run the ball better and that would be the Mountaineers. The Panthers are coming off a 28-21 loss against the red hot Cincinnati Bearcats which means they have now lost two of their last four games and this could be the end of Dave Wanndstedt unless they find a way to win this game. I don't know about you guys but have you been impressed by the Panthers at home this season? I haven't. They lost by 10 to Bowling Green earlier in the season, they beat Buffalo by only 11 points the following home game, they beat Iowa by 1 as a -2, they lost by 20 to a pathetic Rutgers team and they finally got things together two weeks ago and crushed Louisville 41-7. I think they get smoked here. The Panthers come into this game averaging 32.7 points per game in their last three games but those numbers are very deceiving as they have averaged only 310.0 total yards of offense per game in those games and 4.8 yards per play in those games. I think the West Virginia defense is going to have a ball against this offense as they have allowed only 20.0 points per game in their last three games and have allowed only 339.7 total yards per game in those games on 4.9 yards per play. On the ground, the Panthers have done absolutely nothing which is why I think they will have problems if the weather gets bad. They have rushed for only 101.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on a pathetic 2.8 yards per carry which is good news for a West Virginia defense that has allowed 133.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.2 yards per carry in those games. That should force the Panthers to throw the ball where they have completed only 56.3% of their passes the last three games for 7.2 yards per pass attempt which means they go deep or nothing. The Mountaineers defense has been outstanding against the pass the last three games as they have allowed those opponents to complete only 52.6% of their passes for only 5.4 yards per pass attempt, keeping everything to short yardage and no big plays allowed. The Panthers offensive line is horrendous having allowed 9 sacks in their last three games and thrown 4 interceptions in those games. West Virginia should have good pressure packages coming at the Panthers all game. Their secondary is on fire right now with 6 interceptions in their last three games and I think they are going to force just as many turnovers in this game with the bad weather predicted. I also have to mention that the Panthers have lost all ways of discipline and are now taking 7.0 penalties per game the last three games which has resulted in 53.7 penalty yards per game in those games. I think the Panthers are going to keep this game close in the first half because the atmosphere is going to be rocking and the seniors are going to be jacked up for this game. However, the Mountaineers have been outstanding defensively in the second half allowing only 4.6 points per game the last three games and that could be the difference in this game. Sorry Pitt backers, your team is not good enough to win this game.
The BACKYARD BRAWL rivalry comes to an end for Pat White tonight and who knows where things are going from here on in. The Mountaineers may not have another QB like this for quite some time and there could be a complete shift in the rivalry once he leaves West Virginia. Having said that, White is going to want to win this battle one final time and in big games, Pat White has almost never let me down. I also love betting on West Virginia on the road because they have been outstanding ATS the last few seasons away from home. As a matter of fact the Mountaineers are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games and they love playing on this grass surface. Pittsburgh on the other hand have been absolutely atrocious over the years when coming off a loss the previous game as they have covered the spread in only 16 of their last 51 games that follow a straight up loss. They are also 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games which has me thinking that this game means nothing to this team and who knows, maybe some of the guys want coach Wandstedt out the door and losing this game would be the perfect way to make that happen. I know this is a nasty rivalry that has brought fireworks in the past but this game is all about Pat White and his backyard brawl goodbye. He lost at home to the Panthers last season but did win 45-27 here two years ago. It's the Pat White show and I'm glad I'm on his side for this.
Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 16-35 ATS in their last 51 games that follow a straight up loss the game before.
The Pitt Panthers have the exact same record as West Virginia Mountaineers heading into this game but the reason they cannot win the Big East Conference anymore is because they are 3-2 SU in Conference play and that puts them out of contention completely heading into this game. So what motivates these guys to show up and play today? Not much if you ask me. First of all this game is very early on the slate being played at 12 noon which could mean we see some snow or some very cold weather and that definitely favors the team that can run the ball better and that would be the Mountaineers. The Panthers are coming off a 28-21 loss against the red hot Cincinnati Bearcats which means they have now lost two of their last four games and this could be the end of Dave Wanndstedt unless they find a way to win this game. I don't know about you guys but have you been impressed by the Panthers at home this season? I haven't. They lost by 10 to Bowling Green earlier in the season, they beat Buffalo by only 11 points the following home game, they beat Iowa by 1 as a -2, they lost by 20 to a pathetic Rutgers team and they finally got things together two weeks ago and crushed Louisville 41-7. I think they get smoked here. The Panthers come into this game averaging 32.7 points per game in their last three games but those numbers are very deceiving as they have averaged only 310.0 total yards of offense per game in those games and 4.8 yards per play in those games. I think the West Virginia defense is going to have a ball against this offense as they have allowed only 20.0 points per game in their last three games and have allowed only 339.7 total yards per game in those games on 4.9 yards per play. On the ground, the Panthers have done absolutely nothing which is why I think they will have problems if the weather gets bad. They have rushed for only 101.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on a pathetic 2.8 yards per carry which is good news for a West Virginia defense that has allowed 133.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.2 yards per carry in those games. That should force the Panthers to throw the ball where they have completed only 56.3% of their passes the last three games for 7.2 yards per pass attempt which means they go deep or nothing. The Mountaineers defense has been outstanding against the pass the last three games as they have allowed those opponents to complete only 52.6% of their passes for only 5.4 yards per pass attempt, keeping everything to short yardage and no big plays allowed. The Panthers offensive line is horrendous having allowed 9 sacks in their last three games and thrown 4 interceptions in those games. West Virginia should have good pressure packages coming at the Panthers all game. Their secondary is on fire right now with 6 interceptions in their last three games and I think they are going to force just as many turnovers in this game with the bad weather predicted. I also have to mention that the Panthers have lost all ways of discipline and are now taking 7.0 penalties per game the last three games which has resulted in 53.7 penalty yards per game in those games. I think the Panthers are going to keep this game close in the first half because the atmosphere is going to be rocking and the seniors are going to be jacked up for this game. However, the Mountaineers have been outstanding defensively in the second half allowing only 4.6 points per game the last three games and that could be the difference in this game. Sorry Pitt backers, your team is not good enough to win this game.
The BACKYARD BRAWL rivalry comes to an end for Pat White tonight and who knows where things are going from here on in. The Mountaineers may not have another QB like this for quite some time and there could be a complete shift in the rivalry once he leaves West Virginia. Having said that, White is going to want to win this battle one final time and in big games, Pat White has almost never let me down. I also love betting on West Virginia on the road because they have been outstanding ATS the last few seasons away from home. As a matter of fact the Mountaineers are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games and they love playing on this grass surface. Pittsburgh on the other hand have been absolutely atrocious over the years when coming off a loss the previous game as they have covered the spread in only 16 of their last 51 games that follow a straight up loss. They are also 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games which has me thinking that this game means nothing to this team and who knows, maybe some of the guys want coach Wandstedt out the door and losing this game would be the perfect way to make that happen. I know this is a nasty rivalry that has brought fireworks in the past but this game is all about Pat White and his backyard brawl goodbye. He lost at home to the Panthers last season but did win 45-27 here two years ago. It's the Pat White show and I'm glad I'm on his side for this.
Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 16-35 ATS in their last 51 games that follow a straight up loss the game before.
Arkansas Razorbacks +5 (10 Units)
The LSU Tigers are on something weird this season. I know they don't have the big name stars of years past, and that's not really an excuse, but seriously wtf happened to Les Miles and his team this season? I mean these guys are only 7-4 SU on the season, they have been horrendous all season on the spread going 2-8 ATS in those games and it boggles my mind that so many people are backing them on the road, on National TV, against a team that has nothing to lose and that is trying to build pride for next season. The Tigers are coming off a 31-13 home loss to the Ole Miss Rebels on the weekend and believe me when I say that team morale could not be any lower right now the way things have gone this season. The Tigers are coming off five straight home games which has me thinking how unprepared are they going to be for a road atmosphere? They went 2-3 SU in that home stretch with losses against Georgia, Alabama (in overtime with a chance to salvage their season against the much hated Nick Saban) and Ole Miss. LSU comes into this game averaging 23.7 points per road game this season and they have managed to get that done on 360.7 total yards of offense per game away from home and 5.2 yards per play in those games. I can't say too much about Arkansas' defense at home this season as they have allowed a whopping 30.7 points per game and have also allowed 402.7 total yards of offense per game in those games on 5.9 yards per play which is not all that bad. On the ground, LSU has not run the ball effectively away from home all season averaging 140.7 rushing yards per away game on only 3.8 yards per carry in those games. If LSU wants to win this game they have to run the ball a lot better than that because Arkansas is much more efficient with their pass defense and they have allowed 196.3 rushing yards per home game this season on 5.0 yards per carry in those games. In the air is where the Tigers have struggled as they have managed to complete only 57.6% of their passes on the road this season for 6.7 yards per pass attempt in those games. The offensive line has done a good job but the QB's have been useless throwing 5 interceptions in 4 away games and taking the same amount of sacks. Arkansas has been stout against the pass at home this season as they have allowed opponents to complete only 52.9% of their passes this season for 7.3 yards per pass attempt which means they do give up the occasional big play through the air but it's not like LSU can take advantage of that with their QB play. This secondary has deserved bigger and better things all season and I think they can force some bad passes in this game. LSU also has a problem with fumbles as they have fumbled 8 times in four road games this season and the Razorbacks are not going to miss any chances coming off turnovers like that. The Razorbacks have allowed a ton of points in the first half this season but LSU is averaging only 6.7 points per first half on the road this season and unless they can find a way to get things going, they are going to succumb to the crowd as well as atmosphere and struggle to score points like the Razorbacks will. LSU is not a bad team but they are in transition right now, they are lacking a star QB and it really shows if you ask me. I would never back them in this spot knowing how they have played all season against conference opponents.
The Arkansas Razorbacks have been the joke of the SEC Conference pretty much all season but that can all be erased with one big win here today and both the players and the coaching staff know this heading into the game. Bobby Petrino has done a fine job getting the ship back in the right direction if you ask me and there is big time potential for this team to end the season on a strong note and hit 2009 with nothing short of a bang (I think this is going to be a very good team next season). The Razorbacks are coming off back-to-back road losses against South Carolina and Mississippi State and although things still don't look good for this team, this is their one chance to make it all up. I know these guys are 4-7 SU on the season and their only big win was at Auburn (the other wins were against much lesser opponents from other conferences) but there is no doubt in my mind that they have some sort of confidence heading into this thing knowing they were able to beat the Tigers in 2007 and derail their season. Arkansas comes into this game averaging 21.3 points per home game this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 398.5 total yards of offense per game on 5.9 yards per play in those games. LSU's defense has just not been the same this season as they have allowed 29.7 points per away game this season and they have allowed 349.7 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play in those games. On the ground, it's time for Arkansas to get things going on the ground although they have struggled to do that at home averaging only 107.7 rushing yards per home game this season on 3.8 yards per carry in those games. I don't see that improving much as LSU still has a good run defense that has allowed only 124.7 rushing yards per road game on 3.5 yards per carry in those games. That means it all comes down to the QB play of the Razorbacks. QB Casey Dick has experience, he has beat the Tigers in the past and he has completed 59.6% of his passes at home this season for 7.4 yards per pass attempt. Sure he has thrown 8 interceptions in six home games and thats fine with the chances he takes. My concern has always been the offensive line because he has been sacked 17 times in six home games this season and LSU comes at you with everything they have (15 sacks in only four away games this season). However, with all the pressure LSU brings, they also struggle to contain big passing plays downfield as they have allowed their road opponents this season to complete 57.0% of their passes for a whopping 8.5 yards per pass attempt. The Arkansas receiving corps is an experienced one with a bunch of upperclassmen so I think Petrino is really going to open things up in this one and have these guys take big chances that result in big time plays for the offense. LSU's secondary has not made many big plays away from home this season picking off only four passes in four games. What the Tigers have done well however is force turnovers as they have forced 8 fumbles away from home this season and managed to recover 4 of those fumbles in only four away games. That's not a problem for the Razorbacks here because they have lost only three fumbles at home in six games and they seem to be a disciplined bunch. Winning this game against this defense won't be easy but Casey Dick is experienced, he has seen this defense and beat this defense on the road before and I think we see a completely different Arkansas team come out on that field this week. This is all about a quick start if you ask me and seeing how LSU has allowed a whopping 17.0 points per first half on the road this season, I think the Razorbacks are going to have several chances to take a lead and never look back in this game. GIVE ME THE PIGGIES IN A HUGE WIN!
LITTLE ROCK, ARKANSAS on Black Friday, does it get any better than this for the Razorbacks or what? No chance in hell and I don't care who the opponent is, that LSU should be getting this many points on the road against a conference opponent with the type of season they have had to this point. NO CHANCE! Well I don't really know what to expect here but I do know that Bobby Petrino wants this game badly even if it means the Razorbacks still miss the post-season in his first full season as head coach of this team. The goal is to have momentum heading into the 2009 campaign and a win here would pretty much ensure that. LSU has always been tremendous coming off games where they score less than 20 points the game before (10-1 ATS as a matter of fact) but again this is a bullshit line by Vegas and all I have to keep in mind is that LSU has covered the spread in only 8 of their last 30 SEC Conference games and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games right now. Arkansas on the other hand is not much better when it comes to covering spreads but I do have to say that with both teams having complete off years, it's really time for the home team to start dominating again after seeing the road team cover the last four games in this series. Arkansas has been due for a big home win all season and this is what the fans get for continuing to support this team. HUGE WIN FOR ARKANSAS!
Trend of the Game: LSU is 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 games versus SEC Conference opponents.
Arkansas 23, LSU 22
The Arkansas Razorbacks have been the joke of the SEC Conference pretty much all season but that can all be erased with one big win here today and both the players and the coaching staff know this heading into the game. Bobby Petrino has done a fine job getting the ship back in the right direction if you ask me and there is big time potential for this team to end the season on a strong note and hit 2009 with nothing short of a bang (I think this is going to be a very good team next season). The Razorbacks are coming off back-to-back road losses against South Carolina and Mississippi State and although things still don't look good for this team, this is their one chance to make it all up. I know these guys are 4-7 SU on the season and their only big win was at Auburn (the other wins were against much lesser opponents from other conferences) but there is no doubt in my mind that they have some sort of confidence heading into this thing knowing they were able to beat the Tigers in 2007 and derail their season. Arkansas comes into this game averaging 21.3 points per home game this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 398.5 total yards of offense per game on 5.9 yards per play in those games. LSU's defense has just not been the same this season as they have allowed 29.7 points per away game this season and they have allowed 349.7 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play in those games. On the ground, it's time for Arkansas to get things going on the ground although they have struggled to do that at home averaging only 107.7 rushing yards per home game this season on 3.8 yards per carry in those games. I don't see that improving much as LSU still has a good run defense that has allowed only 124.7 rushing yards per road game on 3.5 yards per carry in those games. That means it all comes down to the QB play of the Razorbacks. QB Casey Dick has experience, he has beat the Tigers in the past and he has completed 59.6% of his passes at home this season for 7.4 yards per pass attempt. Sure he has thrown 8 interceptions in six home games and thats fine with the chances he takes. My concern has always been the offensive line because he has been sacked 17 times in six home games this season and LSU comes at you with everything they have (15 sacks in only four away games this season). However, with all the pressure LSU brings, they also struggle to contain big passing plays downfield as they have allowed their road opponents this season to complete 57.0% of their passes for a whopping 8.5 yards per pass attempt. The Arkansas receiving corps is an experienced one with a bunch of upperclassmen so I think Petrino is really going to open things up in this one and have these guys take big chances that result in big time plays for the offense. LSU's secondary has not made many big plays away from home this season picking off only four passes in four games. What the Tigers have done well however is force turnovers as they have forced 8 fumbles away from home this season and managed to recover 4 of those fumbles in only four away games. That's not a problem for the Razorbacks here because they have lost only three fumbles at home in six games and they seem to be a disciplined bunch. Winning this game against this defense won't be easy but Casey Dick is experienced, he has seen this defense and beat this defense on the road before and I think we see a completely different Arkansas team come out on that field this week. This is all about a quick start if you ask me and seeing how LSU has allowed a whopping 17.0 points per first half on the road this season, I think the Razorbacks are going to have several chances to take a lead and never look back in this game. GIVE ME THE PIGGIES IN A HUGE WIN!
LITTLE ROCK, ARKANSAS on Black Friday, does it get any better than this for the Razorbacks or what? No chance in hell and I don't care who the opponent is, that LSU should be getting this many points on the road against a conference opponent with the type of season they have had to this point. NO CHANCE! Well I don't really know what to expect here but I do know that Bobby Petrino wants this game badly even if it means the Razorbacks still miss the post-season in his first full season as head coach of this team. The goal is to have momentum heading into the 2009 campaign and a win here would pretty much ensure that. LSU has always been tremendous coming off games where they score less than 20 points the game before (10-1 ATS as a matter of fact) but again this is a bullshit line by Vegas and all I have to keep in mind is that LSU has covered the spread in only 8 of their last 30 SEC Conference games and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games right now. Arkansas on the other hand is not much better when it comes to covering spreads but I do have to say that with both teams having complete off years, it's really time for the home team to start dominating again after seeing the road team cover the last four games in this series. Arkansas has been due for a big home win all season and this is what the fans get for continuing to support this team. HUGE WIN FOR ARKANSAS!
Trend of the Game: LSU is 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 games versus SEC Conference opponents.
Arkansas 23, LSU 22
Boise State Broncos -21 (5 Units)
The Fresno State Bulldogs probably never expected to be such large underdogs heading into this conference changing game before the season started but that's the way things have turned out and now they have to live with the way their season has gone. Fresno State is going to a Bowl Game regardless of what happens from here on in and although it's not a BCS Bowl Game like they had aspired before the season started, they have played well enough to get into something good and they should be a good opponent from the mid-majors. What I have to immediately points out, and it took me half the season to realize this about college football, is that teams that cost you money most of the season will continue to cost you money right to the end and Fresno State is 2-9 ATS in their games this season despite winning seven of them straight up. The Bulldogs are coming off an impressive 24-10 road win over San Jose State last week and that was shockingly their first road ATS win of the season after winning at Toledo by 1 as a -6, winning at UCLA by 6 as a -7, winning at Utah State by 2 as a -16 and losing at Louisiana Tech as a -4.5. Fresno State comes into this game averaging a whopping 34.0 points per game on the road this season (not a surprise in this conference) and they have done that on 382.8 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play in those games. Boise State's defense prides themselves on strong performances and they have allowed only 7.6 points per game at home this season and in those games managed to allow only 285.4 total yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play which is pretty damn good. Fresno State has a very good rushing attack that averages 164.8 rushing yards per away game this season on 4.5 yards per carry in those games but things won't work the same way tonight as Boise State has allowed only 87.4 rushing yards per home game this season and allowed only 2.5 yards per carry in those games. That means the passing game has to be top notch here because Fresno State has completed 61.1% of their passes on the road this season for 7.5 yards per pass attempt. They have thrown only three interceptions on the road all season and have given the QB's great protection allowing only 8 sacks in those six away games which is pretty damn good. Boise State doesn't bring much pressure at all, nor have they done so all season but they do confuse opposing offenses with some defensive trickery. They have allowed home opponents to complete only 56.0% of their passes this season for only 5.6 yards per pass attempt which means Fresno State will probably find it tough to hit the home runs against this defense which will make it even more frustrating to play from behind. The Bulldogs are just not setup for the short passing game and that should force quite a few more punts than they are used to. I do have to mention however that Boise State has 10 interceptions in five home games this season and the minute you make a bad decision, these guys will make you pay for it no doubt. I also have to mention how good Boise State has been at forcing fumbles as they have forced 7 fumbles in five homes games and have managed to recover 6 of those fumbles giving them a pretty good turnover ratio. The key as always for an underdog is to score some points early and that is something Fresno State has to do if they want a chance at this cover. Having said that, Boise State's defense has allowed 0 points in the first quarter in their five home games this season which is incredible and is motivation to keep a clean sheet for an entire home slate. They allow only 4.8 points per first half at home all season and I think Fresno State is going to get frustrated early enough for the Broncos defense to completely take over this game by the time the second half rollls around. No chance for the Bulldogs here.
The Boise State Broncos are one win away from not only winning the WAC Conference yet again this season but one win away from reaching another BCS Bowl Game which could change the face of this program forever. Right now they are slotted in the BCS mix and all they really have to do is win this game and they are in with a perfect record on the season and a great chance to pull some of that Fiesta Bowl magic from a few seasons ago. The Broncos have played some decent football all season making us some cash here and there with a 6-3-1 ATS record to go along with their perfect win-loss record. It must be nice to come home after two tough games on the road the last two weeks (35 point win at Idaho and 7 point win at Nevada, going 1-1 ATS in those games). The last time Boise State played on the smurf turf was a 35 point win over Utah State three weeks ago. They are only 1-2-1 ATS at home this season which has some fans calling for a bigger win to end the season and I think the coaching staff is going to keep the peddle to the metal for the entire four quarters in this game. Boise State comes into this game averaging 36.6 points per game at home this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 463.4 total yards of offense per game and 6.8 yards per play which is enough to scare any opposing defense. The reason I have to go against Fresno State is their defense because this unit has allowed 28.0 points per game on the road this season and in those games they have managed to allow 391.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play. On the ground, the Broncos have not had the same running success as years past rushing for 147.8 rushing yards per home game this season on 4.1 yards per carry. However, this is RB Ian Johnson's final home game of his career and you know he wants to do it up big against a Fresno State defense that has allowed a whopping 186.5 rushing yards per road game this season on 4.9 yards per carry in those games. Believe me when I say that Johnson is going to get the bulk of the carries and my call right now is for him to get at least three touchdowns. In the air, QB Kellen Moore has completed 72.3% of his passes at home this season for a crazy 9.9 yards per pass attempt and in case you didn't know it by now, this is an offense that likes to hit home runs and likes to go for the big one all the time. That's bad news for Fresno State who have allowed road opponents to complete 56.0% of their passes this season for 6.7 yards per pass attempt in those games. Can you believe this offensive line for the Broncos? They have allowed only 2 sacks at home all season which has led to Moore throwing only 2 interceptions on home turf all season. Fresno State's secondary has played a few decent games but they have only 3 interceptions all season away from home (six games to be exact) and that's just not going to cut it against this Broncos team. Boise State does have an issue with fumbles as they have fumbled 7 times at home this season and lost all 7 fumbles but once again the Fresno State defense lacks the killer instinct and they have been able to recover only 4 fumbles in six road games this season which is just not enough to force turnovers here. As long as Boise State can stay away from all the stupid penalties they have taken this season, they should be good for a blowout win in this game. They are averaging 21.4 points per first half at home this season which means that if their defense continues to shutout opponents in the first quarter, the Broncos should be up by at least 2-3 touchdowns come half time. The Bulldogs defense just doesn't cut it for me and their offense has been to ineffective at times to scare me away from the large number. If you are going to beat the Broncos you have to a) score a lot of points and b) make some stops on defense. Unlike other home games this season, if that is the case, coach Pederson is going to ensure the Broncos don't stop scoring because the BCS computer needs all the re-assurance it can get that these guys are going BOWLING WITH THE BCS BABY!
The rivalry was supposed to be a lot bigger than this 21 point spread (much like the Texas-Texas A&M) game and I think scheduling people are going to have to reconsider things the next few seasons to avoid having such mismatches on such big gamedays like this one. Having said that, Fresno State would love to ruin Boise State's chances of playing in another BCS Bowl Game (something the Bulldogs have wanted to do for a very long time now) and they might come in here and shock the world. NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! Boise State knows what they have to do to get into the BCS and that includes continuing to score a ton of points and winning games big like they have been doing all season. Fresno State is another one of those teams that is just not worth the wager when it comes to conference play. They have covered the spread in only 7 of their last 26 WAC Conference games and as a matter of fact they are just a bad bet overall having covered the spread in only 10 of their last 38 games overall (that's just horrendous if you ask me) and I don't see why anyone would back them...ever. Boise State on the other hand is a very good team to bet on late in the season as they have covered 28 of their last 38 games played in November. They are also very good ATS bets at home and in WAC Conference play and there is no doubt in my mind that this team wants to finish the season off with a BANG because we all know how much time off they are going to get between this game and a BCS Bowl Game. I think this one gets ugly in a hurry. Not only is Fresno State 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings between the teams but the home team has covered six straight games and the trend continues here.
Trend of the Game: Fresno State is 10-28 ATS in their last 38 games overall.
Boise State 48, Fresno State 17
The Boise State Broncos are one win away from not only winning the WAC Conference yet again this season but one win away from reaching another BCS Bowl Game which could change the face of this program forever. Right now they are slotted in the BCS mix and all they really have to do is win this game and they are in with a perfect record on the season and a great chance to pull some of that Fiesta Bowl magic from a few seasons ago. The Broncos have played some decent football all season making us some cash here and there with a 6-3-1 ATS record to go along with their perfect win-loss record. It must be nice to come home after two tough games on the road the last two weeks (35 point win at Idaho and 7 point win at Nevada, going 1-1 ATS in those games). The last time Boise State played on the smurf turf was a 35 point win over Utah State three weeks ago. They are only 1-2-1 ATS at home this season which has some fans calling for a bigger win to end the season and I think the coaching staff is going to keep the peddle to the metal for the entire four quarters in this game. Boise State comes into this game averaging 36.6 points per game at home this season and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 463.4 total yards of offense per game and 6.8 yards per play which is enough to scare any opposing defense. The reason I have to go against Fresno State is their defense because this unit has allowed 28.0 points per game on the road this season and in those games they have managed to allow 391.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play. On the ground, the Broncos have not had the same running success as years past rushing for 147.8 rushing yards per home game this season on 4.1 yards per carry. However, this is RB Ian Johnson's final home game of his career and you know he wants to do it up big against a Fresno State defense that has allowed a whopping 186.5 rushing yards per road game this season on 4.9 yards per carry in those games. Believe me when I say that Johnson is going to get the bulk of the carries and my call right now is for him to get at least three touchdowns. In the air, QB Kellen Moore has completed 72.3% of his passes at home this season for a crazy 9.9 yards per pass attempt and in case you didn't know it by now, this is an offense that likes to hit home runs and likes to go for the big one all the time. That's bad news for Fresno State who have allowed road opponents to complete 56.0% of their passes this season for 6.7 yards per pass attempt in those games. Can you believe this offensive line for the Broncos? They have allowed only 2 sacks at home all season which has led to Moore throwing only 2 interceptions on home turf all season. Fresno State's secondary has played a few decent games but they have only 3 interceptions all season away from home (six games to be exact) and that's just not going to cut it against this Broncos team. Boise State does have an issue with fumbles as they have fumbled 7 times at home this season and lost all 7 fumbles but once again the Fresno State defense lacks the killer instinct and they have been able to recover only 4 fumbles in six road games this season which is just not enough to force turnovers here. As long as Boise State can stay away from all the stupid penalties they have taken this season, they should be good for a blowout win in this game. They are averaging 21.4 points per first half at home this season which means that if their defense continues to shutout opponents in the first quarter, the Broncos should be up by at least 2-3 touchdowns come half time. The Bulldogs defense just doesn't cut it for me and their offense has been to ineffective at times to scare me away from the large number. If you are going to beat the Broncos you have to a) score a lot of points and b) make some stops on defense. Unlike other home games this season, if that is the case, coach Pederson is going to ensure the Broncos don't stop scoring because the BCS computer needs all the re-assurance it can get that these guys are going BOWLING WITH THE BCS BABY!
The rivalry was supposed to be a lot bigger than this 21 point spread (much like the Texas-Texas A&M) game and I think scheduling people are going to have to reconsider things the next few seasons to avoid having such mismatches on such big gamedays like this one. Having said that, Fresno State would love to ruin Boise State's chances of playing in another BCS Bowl Game (something the Bulldogs have wanted to do for a very long time now) and they might come in here and shock the world. NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! Boise State knows what they have to do to get into the BCS and that includes continuing to score a ton of points and winning games big like they have been doing all season. Fresno State is another one of those teams that is just not worth the wager when it comes to conference play. They have covered the spread in only 7 of their last 26 WAC Conference games and as a matter of fact they are just a bad bet overall having covered the spread in only 10 of their last 38 games overall (that's just horrendous if you ask me) and I don't see why anyone would back them...ever. Boise State on the other hand is a very good team to bet on late in the season as they have covered 28 of their last 38 games played in November. They are also very good ATS bets at home and in WAC Conference play and there is no doubt in my mind that this team wants to finish the season off with a BANG because we all know how much time off they are going to get between this game and a BCS Bowl Game. I think this one gets ugly in a hurry. Not only is Fresno State 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings between the teams but the home team has covered six straight games and the trend continues here.
Trend of the Game: Fresno State is 10-28 ATS in their last 38 games overall.
Boise State 48, Fresno State 17
UCLA Bruins +10 (10 Units)
The UCLA Bruins have two games left in their season and should they win both, they would become Bowl Eligible and would prove all the people who doubted them before the season started wrong. How nice would that be for a progream that is in such shambles in recent years? What you have to understand however is that the 4-6 SU Bruins have actually not played bad football at all this season with some close losses and some bad breaks here and there. They are 6-4 ATS in their games despite winning only four of them and I give them a really good chance of winning this game here. The Bruins have not done much but lose away from home this season but they are coming off an impressive 27-7 blowout win at Washington as -6.5 point favorites last week and that should have them jacked up to win this game and head into their home finale against USC with a chance to derail the Trojans and make it to a Bowl Game on the same note. Let's not forget that this is the same UCLA team that managed to lose by only a touchdown at Oregon about a month ago, a game they could have very easily won if you ask me. The Bruins come into this game averaging 17.7 points per game in their last three games and their offense has really struggled in those games averaging only 260.0 total yards of offense per game and only 3.8 yards per play in those games. So why would I back them you ask? Well the answer is simple. Arizona State's defense has been outstanding the last three games and has allowed only 15.3 points per game in those games and they have allowed only 259.7 total yards of offense and 4.0 yards per play in those games. UCLA is screwed right? Wrong! On the ground, you cannot expect this offense to do anything as they have managed to run for only 73.0 rushing yards per game the last three games and have done that on only 2.2 yards per carry. Even if they had some kind of rushing attack it wouldn't really matter because Arizona State has allowed only 56.0 rushing yards per game the last three games and they have allowed 1.9 yards per carry. So we all know what UCLA is going to do in this game and that is pass, pass, pass the ball and pass it some more. QB Kevin Craft has not exactly played well the last three games completing 49.1% of his passes in those games for 5.3 yards per pass attempt while throwing a crazy 10 interceptions (wtf is 10 interceptions in three games? WOW and he didn't do it alone). Sure the offensive line has been horrendous allowing 9 sacks in those three games but he has to get his shit together and realize how big this game is for the program. Arizona State's pass defense has actually been pretty good the last three games as they have allowed opponents to complete only 52.8% of their passes in those games for 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Their offensive line and pass rush units have played their best football of the season the last three games having recorded 7 sacks in those games which has led to 4 interceptions by their secondary. So you guys probably think this offense is in serious trouble here today and yes they actually are. However, if they can tone down on the interceptions, UCLA is not a team that fumbles a lot having fumbles just one single time the last three games (and it was a lost fumble) and they have shown at times this season that scoring points and moving the chains is not going to be a huge problem. We all know UCLA won't score 30 points in this game but again, not everything starts with offense. The Bruins have a tremendous defensive unit that will do what they have done pretty much all season and that is keep their offense in the game long enough to have a shot at the win. Arizona State has been very sound defensively the last three games but they just don't get enough takeaways and I don't trust that they can make the Bruins as uncomfortable as most of their backers would like in this game. UCLA will score some points, it won't be much but it will be enough to pulloff yet another shocking win late in the season.
The Arizona State Sun Devils know they cannot afford to fall asleep in this game because much like the Bruins, they have a spot in Bowl Eligibility land on the line here having to win both their remaining games to have a shot. How the hell did this team get to 4-6 SU you ask? Well it was simple. They have not played good football all season, they have covered the spread in only 3 of their 10 games so far and they have lost some games they should have definitely won. The Sun Devils are coming off a 31-0 home win over the worst team in I-A football the Washington State Cougars and the only reason their stats look really good right now is because their last two opponents have a combined 0 wins on the season and that is probably one of the reasons the line opened so high for this game (I was shocked when I saw the 10 points). You absolutely cannot forget that this is the same Arizona State team that lost by 34 at home to Oregon (a team UCLA almost beat on the road), that lost to Georgia by 17 at home and that lost to UNLV in overtime at home, making them 1-4 ATS this season at home. Arizona State comes into the game averaging 31.7 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 364.3 total yards of offense per game in those games and 5.5 yards per play. Not so good. UCLA's defense on the other hand is the reason I am betting on them in this game as they have allowed 27.3 points per game their last three games but have also allowed only 314.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.0 yards per play in those games (most of the points were because of offensive turnovers by the Bruins). On the ground, the Sun Devils have not been all the effective running the ball the last three weeks as they have run for 133.7 rushing yards per game and averaged only 3.7 yards per carry in those games. It's probably a good thing that they cannot run the ball effectively against two very bad teams because UCLA's one weakness on defense is the run and they have allowed their last three opponents to rush for 174.0 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry in those games. Arizona State is going to have to win this in the air where they have completed 63.3% of their passes the last three games for 7.7 yards per pass attempt and some huge touchdown passes. Having said that, they have not thrown a single interception in those games and the QB protection has actually been pretty good and worthy of recognition. UCLA's pass defense has been getting better and better as the weeks have passed and they have allowed their last three opponents to complete only 50.7% of their passes the last three games played for only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. The pass rush has yielded 6 sacks in those last three games and and the secondary has really stepped up their game and have come down with 4 interceptions in those same last three games this season. In those games, the Bruins have managed to force three fumbles and recover all three fumbles something they are going to have to do in this game if they want to get their offense going. It is imperative that UCLA's offense start most drives with very good field position and that all starts with the defense in this game. What you have to know about Arizona State is that they have little or not discipline whatsoever as they are the most penalized team in the Nation over the span of the last three games. The Sun Devils have taken a whopping 10.7 penalties per game the last three games which has resulted in a whopping 92.0 penalty yards per game (which is almost a full touchdown and length of the football field). What is also very concering with this Sun Devils team is that they have scored only 2.0 points per first quarter in their last three games and if the UCLA defense can get confident early, something tells me they are going to stay strong all game and Arizona State is going to struggle to score some points. In their last three games the UCLA defense has allowed only 13.9 points throughout the first three quarters which is good enough to keep this game close and put the team in a position to win. Arizona State is taking a step back up in class after two weeks of playing against very inferior teams in the conference and I think the Sun Devils crash and burn here.
After watching these teams upset each other on the road the last two seasons, will the home team finally get things together and put together a win or will the bad blood continue once again this season? I mean this has been all about revenge the last two seasons with UCLA winning here in 2006 as underdogs and the Sun Devils returning the favor in 2007 on the road as favorites. The public perception is that UCLA is going to get absolutely clobbered in this game by an offense they can't handle defensively and by a lack of their own offensive production...right? WRONG! UCLA, for some reason, has completely dominated this series when it comes to covering spreads as they are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings and the underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. I also have to mention that UCLA is a very impressive 15-5 ATS in their last 20 PAC-10 Conference games which is quite incredible for a team that has struggled to win games. Arizona State on the other hand has failed to cover the spread in four straight home games now so who the hell makes them 10 point favorites against an equally bad team? They are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 PAC-10 Conference games I just don't see how things could get better for this team. UCLA is going to open a few eyes in this game and although it won't be pretty, the Bruins are going to find a way to win this one.
Trend of the Game: UCLA is 15-5 ATS in thei last 10 PAC-10 Conference games.
UCLA 16, Arizona State 13
The Arizona State Sun Devils know they cannot afford to fall asleep in this game because much like the Bruins, they have a spot in Bowl Eligibility land on the line here having to win both their remaining games to have a shot. How the hell did this team get to 4-6 SU you ask? Well it was simple. They have not played good football all season, they have covered the spread in only 3 of their 10 games so far and they have lost some games they should have definitely won. The Sun Devils are coming off a 31-0 home win over the worst team in I-A football the Washington State Cougars and the only reason their stats look really good right now is because their last two opponents have a combined 0 wins on the season and that is probably one of the reasons the line opened so high for this game (I was shocked when I saw the 10 points). You absolutely cannot forget that this is the same Arizona State team that lost by 34 at home to Oregon (a team UCLA almost beat on the road), that lost to Georgia by 17 at home and that lost to UNLV in overtime at home, making them 1-4 ATS this season at home. Arizona State comes into the game averaging 31.7 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 364.3 total yards of offense per game in those games and 5.5 yards per play. Not so good. UCLA's defense on the other hand is the reason I am betting on them in this game as they have allowed 27.3 points per game their last three games but have also allowed only 314.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.0 yards per play in those games (most of the points were because of offensive turnovers by the Bruins). On the ground, the Sun Devils have not been all the effective running the ball the last three weeks as they have run for 133.7 rushing yards per game and averaged only 3.7 yards per carry in those games. It's probably a good thing that they cannot run the ball effectively against two very bad teams because UCLA's one weakness on defense is the run and they have allowed their last three opponents to rush for 174.0 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry in those games. Arizona State is going to have to win this in the air where they have completed 63.3% of their passes the last three games for 7.7 yards per pass attempt and some huge touchdown passes. Having said that, they have not thrown a single interception in those games and the QB protection has actually been pretty good and worthy of recognition. UCLA's pass defense has been getting better and better as the weeks have passed and they have allowed their last three opponents to complete only 50.7% of their passes the last three games played for only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. The pass rush has yielded 6 sacks in those last three games and and the secondary has really stepped up their game and have come down with 4 interceptions in those same last three games this season. In those games, the Bruins have managed to force three fumbles and recover all three fumbles something they are going to have to do in this game if they want to get their offense going. It is imperative that UCLA's offense start most drives with very good field position and that all starts with the defense in this game. What you have to know about Arizona State is that they have little or not discipline whatsoever as they are the most penalized team in the Nation over the span of the last three games. The Sun Devils have taken a whopping 10.7 penalties per game the last three games which has resulted in a whopping 92.0 penalty yards per game (which is almost a full touchdown and length of the football field). What is also very concering with this Sun Devils team is that they have scored only 2.0 points per first quarter in their last three games and if the UCLA defense can get confident early, something tells me they are going to stay strong all game and Arizona State is going to struggle to score some points. In their last three games the UCLA defense has allowed only 13.9 points throughout the first three quarters which is good enough to keep this game close and put the team in a position to win. Arizona State is taking a step back up in class after two weeks of playing against very inferior teams in the conference and I think the Sun Devils crash and burn here.
After watching these teams upset each other on the road the last two seasons, will the home team finally get things together and put together a win or will the bad blood continue once again this season? I mean this has been all about revenge the last two seasons with UCLA winning here in 2006 as underdogs and the Sun Devils returning the favor in 2007 on the road as favorites. The public perception is that UCLA is going to get absolutely clobbered in this game by an offense they can't handle defensively and by a lack of their own offensive production...right? WRONG! UCLA, for some reason, has completely dominated this series when it comes to covering spreads as they are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings and the underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. I also have to mention that UCLA is a very impressive 15-5 ATS in their last 20 PAC-10 Conference games which is quite incredible for a team that has struggled to win games. Arizona State on the other hand has failed to cover the spread in four straight home games now so who the hell makes them 10 point favorites against an equally bad team? They are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 PAC-10 Conference games I just don't see how things could get better for this team. UCLA is going to open a few eyes in this game and although it won't be pretty, the Bruins are going to find a way to win this one.
Trend of the Game: UCLA is 15-5 ATS in thei last 10 PAC-10 Conference games.
UCLA 16, Arizona State 13
Saturday, November 29
Miami Hurricanes -1 (50 Units)
***PLAY OF THE MONTH***
Miami Hurricanes -1 (50 Units)
***PLAY OF THE MONTH***
The Miami Hurricanes were my largest wager of the week last week (turned out to be my only wager of the week after I lost) and they ended up costing me a little bit more than $5000 with their pathetic performance against Georgia Tech in a Nationally Televised game with huge conference implications. One week later, the Hurricanes travel to another tough place to play and have to find a way to beat the NC State Wolfpack. The Hurricanes have no chance of making it to the ACC Championship Game because the best they can do is finish in a first place tie (which is probably going to happen) with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Of course the tiebreak goes to the Jackets because they beat Miami in their head-to-head. The Hurricanes have only played at NC State once before and somehow they came out of here with a late October win in 2004. We don't really know what coach Shannon has told these guys most of the week but my guess is that this team is anxious to overcome obstacles like their loss to GT last week and something tells me they come out guns blazing in this game looking for revenge. Miami comes into this game averaging only 21.0 points per game their last three games but they have managed to average 361.0 total yards of offense per game in those games and have managed a very decent 5.5 yards per play as well. NC State's defense has been stellar the last three games as they have allowed only 14.7 points per game in those games and allowed only 4.8 yards per play giving them hope that they can stop the Hurricanes here. On the ground, we all know Miami can run the ball but in my opinion they need to run it a lot more to control the clock and control the game. They average 141.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have that goes with 4.0 yards per carry in those games. NC State's defense has been good against the run in recent weeks but they might not give Miami enough credit here. They have allowed their last three opponents to rush for 82.7 rushing yards per game on 3.0 yards per carry which will no doubt force the Hurricanes to once again go to their aerial attack, something that totally killed them against Georgia Tech. The Canes have completed 55.1% of their passes the last three games for 7.4 yards per pass attempt but the protection has not been there and these QB's have been sacked 8 times in those games and thrown 3 interceptions. You can't just blame the line here though because young QB's have to know when to get rid of the ball. We might see a lot more of QB Jacory Harris in this game is Robert Marve messes up because Harris can avoid the pass rush of NC State (8 sacks in their last three games) a lot better than Marve can. The Wolfpack have a weak secondary that has allowed their last three opponents to complete 64.0% of their passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt in those games. The way I see this Wolfpack secondary is that they go for broke on a lot of plays which is why they have 4 interceptions in their last three games but at the same time which is why they have allowed several huge passing plays to go against them the other way. Miami needs to cutdown on the fumbles because they have put the ball on the floor 7 times in their last three games and have lost 3 of those fumbles along the way. Despite playing poor football last week, Miami has been able to keep their discipline and they have averaged only 5.3 penalties per game the last three games, something that needs to continue if they want a chance to win this game here today. NC State has forced only 1 fumble the last three games, they are not all that aggressive when tackling the player with the ball and unless they can change the dynamics of their defense, Harris and Marve should be able to throw all over the place on these guys. As long as they don't give up on the run too early in this game, the Canes are going to have success both running and gunning the ball, something that just wasn't there in their loss to Georgia Tech last week. I know the game means nothing but I think we see a whole Miami team out there today. Canes get back to business today.
The NC State Wolfpack are not really the kind of team you want to have your money on and that has been the case for me for quite a few seasons now. I don't know what it is about these guys but I just don't like them and I don't think they have made me much cash over the years. Having said that, NC State is one of the most profitable teams in college football this season (of course the season I don't bet on them more than once) as they are 8-2 ATS with one game to go. Just a few weeks ago, all hopes of making a Bowl Game where gone for the 2-6 SU Wolfpack (at the time) but the team has rallied and since then won three straight games (10 point win at Duke, 4 point win at home over Wake Forest and 31 point win at North Carolina last week) and let me tell you that they have looked pretty damn good in their wins. Too bad this team didn't get their shit togethe earlier than this because those home losses to Florida State, Boston College and South Florida are going to sting come next week when Bowl teams are announced. NC State comes into this game averaging 29.7 points per game in their last three games and in those games they managed to average 384.7 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play which is pretty damn impressive for a pedestrian offense. Miami's defense took a bit hit last weekk against the Yellow Jackets but things still look respectable as they have allowed 24.0 points per game in their last three games and in those games they have also allowed 359.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play in those games. On the ground is where Miami got trashed by GT last week so unless the Wolfpack can run just as much and just as effectively, I don't think they can win. Although NC State has averaged 168.3 rushing yards per game their last three games on 4.2 yards per carry which should let them move the chains against a Miami defense that has now allowed 206.7 rushing yards per game the last three games and a whopping 5.3 yards per carry in those games (that was then and this is now people, dont forget it). In the air is where I have my concerns with NC State because they have completed only 35.5% of their passes the last three games for 7.5 yards per pass attempt which means it has been home run or nothing for this pass attack. Although they have not thrown a single interception in those games, the pass protection has not been all that good allowing 6 sacks in those games. I think this unit could be in trouble here because although Miami has allowed opponents to complete 63.2% of their passes the last three games for 6.8 yards per pass attempt, they do have a very effective and good pass rush that has yielded 9 sacks in their last three games but without any interceptions. If there is such a thing as being due, NC State is so due to throw an interception or two while the Hurricanes talented secondary is most definitely due to make some big plays and come down with some interceptions for once. Even more impressive I think is the fact that NC State has lost only 1 fumble the last three games (making that only one single turnovers in three games and probably the reason they have been winning). Miami has actually forced 5 fumbles and recovered two of them in their last three games but again coach Shannon is going to emphasize on the importance of forcing turnovers if you are going to win big games like this one. Miami has really struggled in the first half of games the last three games allowing more than 16 points per first half which is why they need to get things going early in this game or it could be too late. NC State has a decent running game but you can't run all day against Miami unless your name is Georgia Tech and the Hurricanes are going to come up with too many big plays on defense in this game. Do this for Sean Taylor baby, he is up there watching you guys on the one year anniversary of his death. Miami for me, courtesy of an angel from up above.
What is on the line in this game you ask? For Miami...nothing...pride maybe and how about something to sit on after that blowout loss against Georgia Tech last week. For NC State...how about a bowl game bid as a win would put them at 6-6 SU on the season and would make them Bowl Eligible. So the stakes are different for both teams but keep in mind that Miami can still play in a New Year's Day Bowl Game and they would need to win here to finish with a good enough record to get that done. Despite their loss to Georgia Tech last week, people are forgetting that Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. On one side you have NC State who is 7-0 ATS in their last seven ACC Conference games and on the other side you Miami who is 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 ACC Conference games which means we are once again due for a turn of events. NC State can't keep covering spreads within the conference or else they would in the ACC Championship Game. Their run should come to an end in this game. What I also know is that NC State is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after winning by 20+ points the game before. Classic letdown coming here. Now I don't know how much this is being talked about around the Miami campus this weekend but it was one year ago that Sean Taylor was murdered in his home and no doubt some of these guys, including alumnus from the program, really want to get a win for Sean here. R.I.P. forever and always #21...this one is for you.
Trend of the Game: Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
Miami 23, NC State 17
The NC State Wolfpack are not really the kind of team you want to have your money on and that has been the case for me for quite a few seasons now. I don't know what it is about these guys but I just don't like them and I don't think they have made me much cash over the years. Having said that, NC State is one of the most profitable teams in college football this season (of course the season I don't bet on them more than once) as they are 8-2 ATS with one game to go. Just a few weeks ago, all hopes of making a Bowl Game where gone for the 2-6 SU Wolfpack (at the time) but the team has rallied and since then won three straight games (10 point win at Duke, 4 point win at home over Wake Forest and 31 point win at North Carolina last week) and let me tell you that they have looked pretty damn good in their wins. Too bad this team didn't get their shit togethe earlier than this because those home losses to Florida State, Boston College and South Florida are going to sting come next week when Bowl teams are announced. NC State comes into this game averaging 29.7 points per game in their last three games and in those games they managed to average 384.7 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play which is pretty damn impressive for a pedestrian offense. Miami's defense took a bit hit last weekk against the Yellow Jackets but things still look respectable as they have allowed 24.0 points per game in their last three games and in those games they have also allowed 359.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play in those games. On the ground is where Miami got trashed by GT last week so unless the Wolfpack can run just as much and just as effectively, I don't think they can win. Although NC State has averaged 168.3 rushing yards per game their last three games on 4.2 yards per carry which should let them move the chains against a Miami defense that has now allowed 206.7 rushing yards per game the last three games and a whopping 5.3 yards per carry in those games (that was then and this is now people, dont forget it). In the air is where I have my concerns with NC State because they have completed only 35.5% of their passes the last three games for 7.5 yards per pass attempt which means it has been home run or nothing for this pass attack. Although they have not thrown a single interception in those games, the pass protection has not been all that good allowing 6 sacks in those games. I think this unit could be in trouble here because although Miami has allowed opponents to complete 63.2% of their passes the last three games for 6.8 yards per pass attempt, they do have a very effective and good pass rush that has yielded 9 sacks in their last three games but without any interceptions. If there is such a thing as being due, NC State is so due to throw an interception or two while the Hurricanes talented secondary is most definitely due to make some big plays and come down with some interceptions for once. Even more impressive I think is the fact that NC State has lost only 1 fumble the last three games (making that only one single turnovers in three games and probably the reason they have been winning). Miami has actually forced 5 fumbles and recovered two of them in their last three games but again coach Shannon is going to emphasize on the importance of forcing turnovers if you are going to win big games like this one. Miami has really struggled in the first half of games the last three games allowing more than 16 points per first half which is why they need to get things going early in this game or it could be too late. NC State has a decent running game but you can't run all day against Miami unless your name is Georgia Tech and the Hurricanes are going to come up with too many big plays on defense in this game. Do this for Sean Taylor baby, he is up there watching you guys on the one year anniversary of his death. Miami for me, courtesy of an angel from up above.
What is on the line in this game you ask? For Miami...nothing...pride maybe and how about something to sit on after that blowout loss against Georgia Tech last week. For NC State...how about a bowl game bid as a win would put them at 6-6 SU on the season and would make them Bowl Eligible. So the stakes are different for both teams but keep in mind that Miami can still play in a New Year's Day Bowl Game and they would need to win here to finish with a good enough record to get that done. Despite their loss to Georgia Tech last week, people are forgetting that Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. On one side you have NC State who is 7-0 ATS in their last seven ACC Conference games and on the other side you Miami who is 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 ACC Conference games which means we are once again due for a turn of events. NC State can't keep covering spreads within the conference or else they would in the ACC Championship Game. Their run should come to an end in this game. What I also know is that NC State is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after winning by 20+ points the game before. Classic letdown coming here. Now I don't know how much this is being talked about around the Miami campus this weekend but it was one year ago that Sean Taylor was murdered in his home and no doubt some of these guys, including alumnus from the program, really want to get a win for Sean here. R.I.P. forever and always #21...this one is for you.
Trend of the Game: Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
Miami 23, NC State 17
New Mexico State Aggies +6 (100 Units)
***PLAY OF THE YEAR***
***PLAY OF THE YEAR***
The Nex Mexico State Aggies can't go on forever without winning a game or can they? I mean it has now been since a 48-45 win at Nevada on October 11, 2008 that this team has won a single football game which is quite shocking for a program that was picked by many as destined for a Bowl Game before the season started. Shit happens I guess but what the heck went wrong this these guys? After beating Nevada on the road, this team lost four straight games where they went 0-4 ATS in those games as well. Despite losing their last two games, New Mexico State went 2-0 ATS in those games definitely showing signs that they are turning the corner and that they could very possibly come in here today and win this game. They went to Fresno State two weeks ago and lost by only 7 points as +17 point road underdogs. They then followed that up last week with a 4 point home loss to Louisiana Tech as a +7 point home underdog. Don't forget that three of their six straight losses were against some of the top teams in the Conference (Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii and San Jose State). New Mexico State comes into this game averaging 24.0 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done on 374.4 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play in those games. Utah State's defense is absolutely horrendous and they are exactly what QB Chase Holbrook need coming into this final game of the season. The Aggies have allowed a whopping 37.6 points per game this season (one of the worst in college football by far) and in those games they have allowed 434.6 total yards of offense per game and a ridiculous 6.0 yards per play. On the ground, nobody ever expect New Mexico State to have success running the ball and at no point this season they did have success running the ball as they average only 60.5 rushing yards per game on the season with 2.2 yards per carry. Horrendous. But hold on, things might be a bit easier in this game should they choose to run the ball a bit as Utah State has allowed 175.6 rushing yards per game this season on 4.7 yards per carry. Even at that, I think this game is all about Chase Holbrook, the Senior QB playing his very last game for the Aggies. Holbrook has been a legend here on campus and he has completed an impressive 67.6% of his passes this season for 3198 passing yards, 7.6 yards per pass attempt, 25 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions...shattering all school records from the past and leaving as the best QB this school has ever seen without a doubt. The only problem is the pressure Holbrook has been under all season having been sacked 2.7 times per game this season which is a direct cause of all those interceptions. Nonetheless, he should have a monster game in his finale as he is going up against Utah State pass defense that has allowed their opponents this season to complete a whopping 64.0% of their passes for 7.4 yards per pass attempt which should definitely open the door for Holbrook to hookup one more time with guys like WR Chris Williams and WR Marcus Anderson who have each caught 9 touchdown passes this season. Williams actually has 80 receptions and is one of seven receivers with more than 10 receptions on the season. The Aggies have little or no pass rush to speak of having record less than one sack per game this season so there should be tons of time for Holbrook to get rid of the ball in this game. Like every other team in this Conference, New Mexico State does fumble quite a bit but you have to understand that for every time they fumble and lose the ball, they will most likely pick that fumble right back up going the other way and yes this is how the WAC Conference works. All throughout the season, win or lose, this team has maintained their composure as they have taken only 5.7 penalties per game. This is a team that does not waste time scoring points as they have scored a whopping 15.3 points per first half of each game they have played this season and that should be enough to torch the Aggies early and take a big lead they can try to hold on to for the most part of this game. Like I said before, New Mexico State does not have defense to rely upon but they do have a superstar QB playing his last game of college football right here. Believe me when I say he wants to win this.
The Utah State Aggies should never ever be favored by this many points unless they are playing against High School team or even a I-AA team. I just don't understand why or how they deserve to be favored by almost a touchdown against a team that is equally as bad as them but that has a nice little storyline to go with this afternoon's game. Utah State has not lost as many games in a row as New Mexico State but they are losers of 6 of their last 7 games overall. Much like New Mexico State though, it's not like the Aggies haven't competed in recent weeks as they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games with a 16 point underdog cover at home against Fresno State, a 16 point win at home over Hawaii, a 35 point road loss at Boise State and a 7 point loss at Louisiana Tech. Having said that, what the hell makes these guys a favorite in any game this season? The Aggies are 1-0 ATS as a favorite but that was against Idaho and they don't have a QB like Holbrook. Utah State has been impressive at home going 4-1 ATS but again I don't trust a team like this can cover such a big spread against an equally bad team. Utah State comes into this game averaging 21.9 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on 327.8 total yards of offense per game this season and 5.1 yards per play in those games. New Mexico State is not known for their defense nor have I bet on them because of defense in this game. They have allowed 32.9 points per game on the season and in those games have allowed 376.8 total yards of offense per game on 5.7 yards per play in those games which is really not all that bad when you think about it (Utah State has allowed a full 51.0 more yards of offense per game this season). On the ground, Utah State has rushed for 136.6 rushing yards per game this season and they have averaged 3.6 yards per carry in those games. They can run the ball all they want in this game because the Aggies from New Mexico State have allowed opponents to average a whopping 5.2 yards per carry this season and they have allowed 218.3 rushing yards per game on the season. The question is though, when New Mexico takes a lead in this game, can the Aggies get back into this by simply running the ball? I don't think so. Utah State has to find a way to pass the ball and I just don't see that happening for a team that as completed only 55.9% of their passes this season for 7.0 yards per pass attempt in those games. They obviously live and die by the deep bomb and long passing plays, something I don't think they can have success doing in this game today. I say that because the New Mexico State secondary has allowed opponents to complete only 58.3% of their passes this season for 6.4 yards per pass attempt whch is quite impressive for a team that allows more than 30 points per game. I think the pass rush can have some success in this game seeing how Utah State has failed to protect their QB's all season long and seeing how New Mexico State has put pressure on opposing QB's most of the season with some success (1.6 sacks per game). On that note, much like New Mexico State, Utah State cannot hold onto the ball and they have had problems with fumbles all season long losing at least one fumble for each and every game they have played so far in 2008. That won't work too well here because Nex Mexico State has forced a whopping 1.7 fumbles per game this season and they tackle with a purpose (although this is a risky, it works against teams who cannot hold onto the ball like Utah State). Utah State is team that lacks any form of discispline as they have taken 7.3 penalties per game this season which in the end has cost them 64.5 penalty yards per game and some valuable chances to cover spreads along the way. If you are going to beat New Mexico State you need to score points early because their defense has allowed 20.1 first half points per game this season. Having said that, the Aggies offense is averaging a paltry 8.4 points per first half this season and they just can't win big against a team like this. Utah State has played well as of late and they have been a good ATS wager but I don't like this matchup for them at all and I am forced to go the other way and bet on a QB that is playing with a purpose in this game and that should boost his defense with his performance.
How boring to bet on this game right? WRONG AGAIN! You are going to get the chance to bet on one of the most underrated and unknown to everyone QB's in all of college football as QB Chase Holbrook makes his final collegiate start before we probably see him again somewhere down the line playing in the NFL. This kid has an arm and a half and he led this team to some huge passing days over the last three or four seasons. Both teams are shit, both teams can't stop losing but this line by the Vegas oddsmakers is absurd and it's obvious they weren't paying much attention when they put it out there because there are probably too many other big games right now and slapping just about any line on this game was all that mattered. Nex Mexico State has covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 games that directly follow a bye week which means they are well coached and usually come into games like this well prepared. The underdog is also 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these teams and that is because Vegas oddmakers just don't know what to do with these games from the WAC Conference. I think this game is going to go back and forth for the most part but again, QB Chase Holbrook lost his home finale and I'm sure it bothered. I have no doubts in my mind that he wants to leave college football a winner and not a loser of seven straight games. He should make it happen for us.
Trend of the Game: The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings of this series.
New Mexico State 35, Utah State 32
The Utah State Aggies should never ever be favored by this many points unless they are playing against High School team or even a I-AA team. I just don't understand why or how they deserve to be favored by almost a touchdown against a team that is equally as bad as them but that has a nice little storyline to go with this afternoon's game. Utah State has not lost as many games in a row as New Mexico State but they are losers of 6 of their last 7 games overall. Much like New Mexico State though, it's not like the Aggies haven't competed in recent weeks as they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games with a 16 point underdog cover at home against Fresno State, a 16 point win at home over Hawaii, a 35 point road loss at Boise State and a 7 point loss at Louisiana Tech. Having said that, what the hell makes these guys a favorite in any game this season? The Aggies are 1-0 ATS as a favorite but that was against Idaho and they don't have a QB like Holbrook. Utah State has been impressive at home going 4-1 ATS but again I don't trust a team like this can cover such a big spread against an equally bad team. Utah State comes into this game averaging 21.9 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on 327.8 total yards of offense per game this season and 5.1 yards per play in those games. New Mexico State is not known for their defense nor have I bet on them because of defense in this game. They have allowed 32.9 points per game on the season and in those games have allowed 376.8 total yards of offense per game on 5.7 yards per play in those games which is really not all that bad when you think about it (Utah State has allowed a full 51.0 more yards of offense per game this season). On the ground, Utah State has rushed for 136.6 rushing yards per game this season and they have averaged 3.6 yards per carry in those games. They can run the ball all they want in this game because the Aggies from New Mexico State have allowed opponents to average a whopping 5.2 yards per carry this season and they have allowed 218.3 rushing yards per game on the season. The question is though, when New Mexico takes a lead in this game, can the Aggies get back into this by simply running the ball? I don't think so. Utah State has to find a way to pass the ball and I just don't see that happening for a team that as completed only 55.9% of their passes this season for 7.0 yards per pass attempt in those games. They obviously live and die by the deep bomb and long passing plays, something I don't think they can have success doing in this game today. I say that because the New Mexico State secondary has allowed opponents to complete only 58.3% of their passes this season for 6.4 yards per pass attempt whch is quite impressive for a team that allows more than 30 points per game. I think the pass rush can have some success in this game seeing how Utah State has failed to protect their QB's all season long and seeing how New Mexico State has put pressure on opposing QB's most of the season with some success (1.6 sacks per game). On that note, much like New Mexico State, Utah State cannot hold onto the ball and they have had problems with fumbles all season long losing at least one fumble for each and every game they have played so far in 2008. That won't work too well here because Nex Mexico State has forced a whopping 1.7 fumbles per game this season and they tackle with a purpose (although this is a risky, it works against teams who cannot hold onto the ball like Utah State). Utah State is team that lacks any form of discispline as they have taken 7.3 penalties per game this season which in the end has cost them 64.5 penalty yards per game and some valuable chances to cover spreads along the way. If you are going to beat New Mexico State you need to score points early because their defense has allowed 20.1 first half points per game this season. Having said that, the Aggies offense is averaging a paltry 8.4 points per first half this season and they just can't win big against a team like this. Utah State has played well as of late and they have been a good ATS wager but I don't like this matchup for them at all and I am forced to go the other way and bet on a QB that is playing with a purpose in this game and that should boost his defense with his performance.
How boring to bet on this game right? WRONG AGAIN! You are going to get the chance to bet on one of the most underrated and unknown to everyone QB's in all of college football as QB Chase Holbrook makes his final collegiate start before we probably see him again somewhere down the line playing in the NFL. This kid has an arm and a half and he led this team to some huge passing days over the last three or four seasons. Both teams are shit, both teams can't stop losing but this line by the Vegas oddsmakers is absurd and it's obvious they weren't paying much attention when they put it out there because there are probably too many other big games right now and slapping just about any line on this game was all that mattered. Nex Mexico State has covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 games that directly follow a bye week which means they are well coached and usually come into games like this well prepared. The underdog is also 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these teams and that is because Vegas oddmakers just don't know what to do with these games from the WAC Conference. I think this game is going to go back and forth for the most part but again, QB Chase Holbrook lost his home finale and I'm sure it bothered. I have no doubts in my mind that he wants to leave college football a winner and not a loser of seven straight games. He should make it happen for us.
Trend of the Game: The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings of this series.
New Mexico State 35, Utah State 32
Tennessee Volunteers -3.5 (25 Units)
The Kentucky Wildcats pretty much shocked the college football world as they found a way to get into a Bowl Game for yet another season. This team was picked to finish nowhere near the Bowl Season before the season started but coach Brooks found a way to get it done even without his superstar QB from last season. Kentucky has looked better than Tennessee for the most part of this season but this has nothing to do with what went on earlier this season, it has more to do with what these teams can do right now. The Wildcats are coming off a 31-24 home loss to Vanderbilt and that followed a 42-38 home loss to Georgia the week before. So that's quite impressive to say the least. Having said that, the Wildcats have not impressed me at all on the road this season just barely beating Mississippi State by one points a few weeks ago which followed their 63-5 thrashing at the hands of the Florida Gators. Yeah they looked good in their three point loss to Alabama but let me remind you that playing against and trying to slay a big giant is not the same as playing against a team that has underachieved all season like Tennessee has and I think Kentucky will take this game too lightly. The Wildcats come into this game averaging 25.3 points per game in their last three games but they have managed to do that by averaging a pathetic 282.0 total yards of offense per game on 4.4 yards per play in those games. That should allow this Tennessee defense to just go nuts on these guys as the Vols have been very good defensively allowing only 16.7 points per game in their last three games and allowing those very same opponents to average only 244.7 total yards of offense per game on a crazy 3.7 yards per play. This is one of the hottest defenses in the Nation right now. On the ground, Kentucky has been succesful running the ball as they have averaged 150.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have done that on 3.9 yards per carry in those games. Having said that though, Tennessee's run defense is on fire right now and the last three teams they have faced have averaged only 97.7 rushing yards per game on an impressive 2.4 yards per carry in those games. That should force the Wildcats to throw the ball a lot more than they would normally want to and thats a bad thing. Kentucky has completed only 51.1% of their passes the last three games for only 5.2 yards per pass attempt in those games. They have thrown 4 interceptions, allowed 3 sacks and have just not been making plays downfield. Tennessee's defense is going to tee off on that passing game as the Vols have allowed their last three opponents to complete only 46.9% of their passes the last three games for 5.4 yards per pass attempt in those games. WOW! Not only have they shut down opposing passing games but they have 3 interceptions and 6 sacks in those games and as a unit they are playing their best football of the season by a mile. What they have failed to do however is force fumbles and be aggressive on their tackles which has cost them at times but they are due for another huge defensive performance and they are going up against a Kentucky team that has fumbled the ball 4 times the last three games so I am optimistic that they can come up with some strips in this game. You are not going to beat Tennessee unless you can score some points and score them early. Having said that, Kentucky is averaging a pathetic 7.0 points per first half of games in their last three games and that just won't be enough to keep the Vols on their heels. Like I said before, the Wildcats have relied heavily on their rushing attack to keep the chains moving, to keep the game short and to keep the game close enough that they have a chance at the very end. Well that won't be easy in this game because on the other side of the field is one of the hottest defenses in the Nation right now and they are going to come out aggressive. Kentucky is in big trouble here if you ask me.
The Tennessee Volunteers are having one of their worst seasons in recent memory and the impact of that has already been felt. Changes have been made with the coaching staff, with the players and with everyone associated with this program because having a bad season like this is unacceptable to many at the school. Make no mistake about it, Tennessee is not going to a Bowl Game this season so they have nothing to play for as they close out their disastrous season at home tonight. Or do they? After losing three straight games to Wyoming, South Carolina and Alabama, the curtains were close on this team and everyone had completely given up until last week's game at Vanderbilt, where the Vols walked into that place as three point underdogs and came out of there 20-10 winners for their first win since October 18 where they completely demolished the Mississippi State Bulldogs at home in that one. The offense has been the big problem for this team and although nothing has been fixed, the defense has taken matters into their own hands, they have stepped up big time and it has shown as the team looks to close out the season with two straight wins here. Tennessee comes into this game averaging a pathetic 11.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done that on 223.0 total yards of offense per game and 3.6 yards per play in those games, which is worse than what Kentucky has been able to do. The only difference here is that Kentucky's defense sucks ass leaving the Wildcats with nothing to fall back on. They have allowed 28.7 points per game in their last three games and in those games have also allowed 397.3 total yards of offense per game and 6.1 yards per play in those games. Tennessee has defense but no offense, Kentucky has no defense and no offense. On the ground, the Vols have struggled to move the ball as they are averaging only 119.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have averaged only 3.2 yards per carry in those games. This is RB Arian Foster's final college football game and you can bet your bottom dollar he is going to get the bulk of the carries in this game against a defense that has allowed 133.3 rushing yards per game their last three games on 4.0 yards per carry. That should open things up for the passing game to improve (not like they can get any worse really). Regardless of who the Vols choose to go with at the QB position in this game, they cannot go any lower than the 42.9% pass completion rate they have accomplished the last three games and that was done on 4.1 yards per pass attempt. However, this is one of the worst pass defenses Tennessee has seen all season as Kentucky has allowed their last three opponents to complete 60.4% of their passes for a whopping 8.3 yards per pass attempt and there is no doubt in my mind that the Vols are going to take several shots down the field in this game in an attempt to boost this offense. The pass protection has been there all season for Crompton and company but the QB's have been useless despite being sacked only 5 times in their last five games as they have still thrown 5 interceptions in those games and looked just horrible. They are probably going to catch somewhat of a break in this game because much like last season Kentucky has struggled to come up with big plays on defense and they have only one interception in their last three games overall which just won't cut it. You have to force turnovers, you have to pressure the QB and you have to be aggressive to keep this Vols attack grounded (where it has been most of the season). You have to love the fact that despite losing all these games, Tennessee is still playing smart and they have taken only 3.7 penalties per game the last three games for only 19.7 penalty yards per game in those games. Kentucky is a slow starting team and their defense usually comes out asleep as they have allowed 17.4 points per first half in their last three games this season which should leave the door open for the Vols to score points in the first quarter for the first time in almost a month now as they have scored 0 points in their last three first quarters of games this season. Wow. All Tennessee has to do is hand the ball to Foster, use some play action, hit some quick slants and score as many points as they can to end their season on a high note heading into 2009. VOLS TO THE BANK!
Neither team needs to win this game. Therefore this is a meaningless game for both teams and that leaves things up in the air because we don't know who is trying to do what and why they are trying to do it. I don't think Tennessee should feel so bad about the type of season they have had because look at other teams like Michigan who are among a select 2-3 big programs who are just having absolute horrendous season and who are probably in the middle of head coaching changes and recruiting re-alignments. Having said that, the Vols still have a lot of pride in what they do and seeing how the fans have suffered the most this season, this team would like nothing more than to give them a second consecutive huge win (this one at home at least) before they have to wait until August 2009 to see them play football again (these fans are not used to missing out on the Bowl season). Yes Kentucky is a nice 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games and they have played well away from home but Tennessee is due big time at home having covered the spread in only 1 of their last 6 games played in this stadium and they should be jacked up to send off their senior players (who have been through just about everything). The road team and underdog have dominated this series but things are a bit different this season and I am betting large on the Vols to win this and win it big.
Trend of the Game: Tennessee is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams with a winning record.
Tennessee 31, Kentucky 10
The Tennessee Volunteers are having one of their worst seasons in recent memory and the impact of that has already been felt. Changes have been made with the coaching staff, with the players and with everyone associated with this program because having a bad season like this is unacceptable to many at the school. Make no mistake about it, Tennessee is not going to a Bowl Game this season so they have nothing to play for as they close out their disastrous season at home tonight. Or do they? After losing three straight games to Wyoming, South Carolina and Alabama, the curtains were close on this team and everyone had completely given up until last week's game at Vanderbilt, where the Vols walked into that place as three point underdogs and came out of there 20-10 winners for their first win since October 18 where they completely demolished the Mississippi State Bulldogs at home in that one. The offense has been the big problem for this team and although nothing has been fixed, the defense has taken matters into their own hands, they have stepped up big time and it has shown as the team looks to close out the season with two straight wins here. Tennessee comes into this game averaging a pathetic 11.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done that on 223.0 total yards of offense per game and 3.6 yards per play in those games, which is worse than what Kentucky has been able to do. The only difference here is that Kentucky's defense sucks ass leaving the Wildcats with nothing to fall back on. They have allowed 28.7 points per game in their last three games and in those games have also allowed 397.3 total yards of offense per game and 6.1 yards per play in those games. Tennessee has defense but no offense, Kentucky has no defense and no offense. On the ground, the Vols have struggled to move the ball as they are averaging only 119.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have averaged only 3.2 yards per carry in those games. This is RB Arian Foster's final college football game and you can bet your bottom dollar he is going to get the bulk of the carries in this game against a defense that has allowed 133.3 rushing yards per game their last three games on 4.0 yards per carry. That should open things up for the passing game to improve (not like they can get any worse really). Regardless of who the Vols choose to go with at the QB position in this game, they cannot go any lower than the 42.9% pass completion rate they have accomplished the last three games and that was done on 4.1 yards per pass attempt. However, this is one of the worst pass defenses Tennessee has seen all season as Kentucky has allowed their last three opponents to complete 60.4% of their passes for a whopping 8.3 yards per pass attempt and there is no doubt in my mind that the Vols are going to take several shots down the field in this game in an attempt to boost this offense. The pass protection has been there all season for Crompton and company but the QB's have been useless despite being sacked only 5 times in their last five games as they have still thrown 5 interceptions in those games and looked just horrible. They are probably going to catch somewhat of a break in this game because much like last season Kentucky has struggled to come up with big plays on defense and they have only one interception in their last three games overall which just won't cut it. You have to force turnovers, you have to pressure the QB and you have to be aggressive to keep this Vols attack grounded (where it has been most of the season). You have to love the fact that despite losing all these games, Tennessee is still playing smart and they have taken only 3.7 penalties per game the last three games for only 19.7 penalty yards per game in those games. Kentucky is a slow starting team and their defense usually comes out asleep as they have allowed 17.4 points per first half in their last three games this season which should leave the door open for the Vols to score points in the first quarter for the first time in almost a month now as they have scored 0 points in their last three first quarters of games this season. Wow. All Tennessee has to do is hand the ball to Foster, use some play action, hit some quick slants and score as many points as they can to end their season on a high note heading into 2009. VOLS TO THE BANK!
Neither team needs to win this game. Therefore this is a meaningless game for both teams and that leaves things up in the air because we don't know who is trying to do what and why they are trying to do it. I don't think Tennessee should feel so bad about the type of season they have had because look at other teams like Michigan who are among a select 2-3 big programs who are just having absolute horrendous season and who are probably in the middle of head coaching changes and recruiting re-alignments. Having said that, the Vols still have a lot of pride in what they do and seeing how the fans have suffered the most this season, this team would like nothing more than to give them a second consecutive huge win (this one at home at least) before they have to wait until August 2009 to see them play football again (these fans are not used to missing out on the Bowl season). Yes Kentucky is a nice 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games and they have played well away from home but Tennessee is due big time at home having covered the spread in only 1 of their last 6 games played in this stadium and they should be jacked up to send off their senior players (who have been through just about everything). The road team and underdog have dominated this series but things are a bit different this season and I am betting large on the Vols to win this and win it big.
Trend of the Game: Tennessee is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams with a winning record.
Tennessee 31, Kentucky 10
Washington State Cougars +28.5 (10 Units)
The Washington State Cougars are not going to win a single game in 2008 against a I-A opponents (oh wait they just did last week and nobody in the Country really noticed) and the only good thing to come out of that is that we might not have to watch that idiot on Saturday morning COLLEGE GAMEDAY on ESPN who has been there each and every week the last who knows how many season waving his stupid Washington State Cougars flag. You would think by now that this kid or dude would have moved on to bigger and better things but he has been loyal and is still hoping for a turnaround. Hold on guys, stop the damn press. WASHINGTON STATE has won two games now this season and they head into their Hawaii end of season vacation party with nothing to lose (not even pride at this point) and with nothing but fun times on their minds. That could be great news for us Cougars backers because I actually believe they can win this game coming off that 16-13 thriller win against Washington last week. These guys needed that bad and yes they have a grand total of 0 points in their last two road games combined but this is a good matchup for them and I think they cover the spread. Washington State comes into this game averaging 14.7 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done by also averaging 225.3 total yards of offense per game and 4.0 yards per play. Yes that sucks but they are improving somehow and they get to go up against a Hawaii defense that has allowed 25.7 points per game in their last three games and that has also allowed 329.0 total yards of offense per game in those games on 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, there are no hopes of things getting better for this Washington State offense that has averaged only 90.7 rushing yards per game the last three games on 3.0 yards per carry in those games and I say that because Hawaii's run defense has done a great job in their last three games and they have allowed only 66.7 rushing yards per game in those games on only 2.0 yards per carry. That puts everything in the hands of the Washington State passing attack who has improved in recent weeks as they have completed 56.3% of their passes the last three games for 5.0 yards per pass attempt in those games. Hawaii's pass defense has allowed their last three opponents to complete 63.7% of their passes for 8.6 yards per pass attempt which should give the Cougars a chance to move the ball in this game and at least keep things close now that their passing game is finding a bit of rythm the last three games. The key for this offense is going to be to move the ball as quickly as possible and avoid the sacks that have plagued them all season long as their QB's have been sacked 10 times the last three games and they have to go up against a Hawaii team that has a whopping 16 sacks in their last three games. Yup...the ball needs to come out and it needs to come out fast. QB Kevin Lopina is due to throw his first touchdown pass of the season because right now he sits at 0 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions on the season but he has played well enough to lead his team to a win last week. Hawaii has 6 interceptions their last three games but that is a direct result of their risky approach to other teams passing games and Lopina should find some wide open receivers pretty much all afternoon. What I have to admire about this Cougars team is that they have taken only 5.7 penalties per game in their last three games and those have gone for 50.7 penalty yards per game. If you are going to keep up with Hawaii in any of their home games, you need to avoid playing dirty the way they do and let them self execute with the amount of penalties they take per game. I know betting on such a bad team is risky but I think the Cougars can build on last week's win over Washington and I think they walk into this place and actually compete with the Warriors. Washington State with the upset of the year spread wise?
The Hawaii Warriors have already secured a spot in a Bowl Game (well they are eligible and its almost guaranteed anyways) which has me feeling a lot more comfortable to go against them then if they needed a win here to make it to a Bowl Game. They are 6-5 SU on the season, they have done quite well in their first season without sensational QB Colt Brennan but the quest is not over, they have to play this traditional final home games versus a team from a BCS Conference. I'm trying to think...what interest does Hawaii have in this game right now apart from trying to finish with 7 wins instead of 6? This is a team that went 4-1 SU at home this season and that also went 3-1 ATS in those games so you have to respect their abilities to win games here and win them big. Looking back on the season Hawaii is coming off a 32 point home win over Idaho, they are coming off a 7 point home win over Nevada, they are coming off a 10 point home win over Louisiana Tech, they are coming off a 3 point home loss to San Jose State and they are coming off a 19 point home win over Weber State. So the only team they beat at home by more than 28.5 points was Idaho who in my books are ranked #161 in all of college football while Washington State is ranked #154 in all of college football. Hawaii comes into this game averaging 35.0 points per game in their last three games but they have done that on an unsually low 392.3 total yards of offense per game and in those same games have scored 6.1 yards per play. Washington State's defense can't do much because of how bad their offense is and they have allowed 34.3 points per game in their last three games. They have also allowed 417.3 total yards of offense per game in their last three games and allowed 5.9 yards per play in those games. Most teams who blow the Cougars out of the water have a good enough running game that allows them to control the clock, run on first and second down as well as hold the Cougars offense off the field. Hawaii on the other hand has a so-so rushing attack as they average 118.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have averaged 3.9 yards per carry in those games. I don't know that it will be enough against a Washington State defense that has allowed 227.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.5 yards per carry. Hawaii has too much pride in their passing game to keep running the ball. They have completed 62.4% of their passes the last three games for 8.1 yards per pass attempt and as many of you have noticed in the past, this team loves to drop big plays on sleeping secondaries. Well just to let you know the Washington State secondary has been atrocious to say the least having allowed their last three opponents to complete 67.7% of their passes the last three games for 9.2 yards per pass attempt. However those numbers are quite high because other teams haven't really moved the ball much against these guys opting to run instead and control the clock. The Warriors offensive line continues to struggle with protection packages for their QB's and although that is not too big of a problem, this PAC 10 defense has 5 sacks in their last three games and they will come after a Hawaii team that has allowed 6 sacks in their last three games. The Hawaii QB's have not thrown a single interception in their last three games, something I highly doubt they can maintain to the end of this game because Washington State does have a few guys who can make plays on defense and they have 2 interceptions in their last three games. The big problem for me when betting on the Warriors is their complete inability to hold onto the football much like every single other team in the WAC Conference. Hawaii has fumbled the ball a whopping 8 times in their last three games, losing 6 of those fumbles and I don't know how you can expect them to cover big spreads against a PAC 10 Conference team when they are doing shit like that. They are also one of the most penalized teams in the Country taking 9.2 penalties per game in their last three games and that has cost them a grand total of 81.3 penalty yards per game in those games. It's a far stretch to ask this Washington State defense to win the game for them but if the offense can get something going and I think they can, the defense will have it a lot easier and will be able to make some big plays in this game.
ALOHA to all from Hawaii for the very last late night football action of the 2008 season. Betting on these late night games has always been one of my favorite parts of college football betting because the games are always crazy, the points come in bunches and betting on these things is one hell of an adrenaline rush. I know Washington State sucks and I know they have not scored a point on the road the last two away games but they are playing much better football than earlier this season and by no means should Hawaii ever be favored by this many points over anybody, at home or in their own school parking lot. What you have to know about Washington State is that they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams from the WAC Conference. Most people forget that despite being a horrendous football team, Washington State still has PAC 10 Conference blood and that should be worth something. Having said that, Hawaii is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games versus teams from the PAC 10 Conference and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus teams from other conferences, once again proving that they are only made to play in the WAC Conference. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win of 20+ points the game before and believe me when I say WASHINGTON STATE win this game in an upset or they come close to it anyways.
Trend of the Game: Washington State is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus WAC Conference opponents.
Washington State 43, Hawaii 42
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RECAP
Ball State -10.5
Texas A&M +35
West Virginia -3.5
Arkansas +5
Boise State -21
UCLA +10
Miami -1 ***PLAY OF THE MONTH***
New Mexico State +6 ***PLAY OF THE YEAR***
Tennessee -3.5
Washington State +28.5
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND HAPPY THANKSGIVING! GOD BLESS THE TROOPS!
The Hawaii Warriors have already secured a spot in a Bowl Game (well they are eligible and its almost guaranteed anyways) which has me feeling a lot more comfortable to go against them then if they needed a win here to make it to a Bowl Game. They are 6-5 SU on the season, they have done quite well in their first season without sensational QB Colt Brennan but the quest is not over, they have to play this traditional final home games versus a team from a BCS Conference. I'm trying to think...what interest does Hawaii have in this game right now apart from trying to finish with 7 wins instead of 6? This is a team that went 4-1 SU at home this season and that also went 3-1 ATS in those games so you have to respect their abilities to win games here and win them big. Looking back on the season Hawaii is coming off a 32 point home win over Idaho, they are coming off a 7 point home win over Nevada, they are coming off a 10 point home win over Louisiana Tech, they are coming off a 3 point home loss to San Jose State and they are coming off a 19 point home win over Weber State. So the only team they beat at home by more than 28.5 points was Idaho who in my books are ranked #161 in all of college football while Washington State is ranked #154 in all of college football. Hawaii comes into this game averaging 35.0 points per game in their last three games but they have done that on an unsually low 392.3 total yards of offense per game and in those same games have scored 6.1 yards per play. Washington State's defense can't do much because of how bad their offense is and they have allowed 34.3 points per game in their last three games. They have also allowed 417.3 total yards of offense per game in their last three games and allowed 5.9 yards per play in those games. Most teams who blow the Cougars out of the water have a good enough running game that allows them to control the clock, run on first and second down as well as hold the Cougars offense off the field. Hawaii on the other hand has a so-so rushing attack as they average 118.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have averaged 3.9 yards per carry in those games. I don't know that it will be enough against a Washington State defense that has allowed 227.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.5 yards per carry. Hawaii has too much pride in their passing game to keep running the ball. They have completed 62.4% of their passes the last three games for 8.1 yards per pass attempt and as many of you have noticed in the past, this team loves to drop big plays on sleeping secondaries. Well just to let you know the Washington State secondary has been atrocious to say the least having allowed their last three opponents to complete 67.7% of their passes the last three games for 9.2 yards per pass attempt. However those numbers are quite high because other teams haven't really moved the ball much against these guys opting to run instead and control the clock. The Warriors offensive line continues to struggle with protection packages for their QB's and although that is not too big of a problem, this PAC 10 defense has 5 sacks in their last three games and they will come after a Hawaii team that has allowed 6 sacks in their last three games. The Hawaii QB's have not thrown a single interception in their last three games, something I highly doubt they can maintain to the end of this game because Washington State does have a few guys who can make plays on defense and they have 2 interceptions in their last three games. The big problem for me when betting on the Warriors is their complete inability to hold onto the football much like every single other team in the WAC Conference. Hawaii has fumbled the ball a whopping 8 times in their last three games, losing 6 of those fumbles and I don't know how you can expect them to cover big spreads against a PAC 10 Conference team when they are doing shit like that. They are also one of the most penalized teams in the Country taking 9.2 penalties per game in their last three games and that has cost them a grand total of 81.3 penalty yards per game in those games. It's a far stretch to ask this Washington State defense to win the game for them but if the offense can get something going and I think they can, the defense will have it a lot easier and will be able to make some big plays in this game.
ALOHA to all from Hawaii for the very last late night football action of the 2008 season. Betting on these late night games has always been one of my favorite parts of college football betting because the games are always crazy, the points come in bunches and betting on these things is one hell of an adrenaline rush. I know Washington State sucks and I know they have not scored a point on the road the last two away games but they are playing much better football than earlier this season and by no means should Hawaii ever be favored by this many points over anybody, at home or in their own school parking lot. What you have to know about Washington State is that they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams from the WAC Conference. Most people forget that despite being a horrendous football team, Washington State still has PAC 10 Conference blood and that should be worth something. Having said that, Hawaii is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games versus teams from the PAC 10 Conference and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus teams from other conferences, once again proving that they are only made to play in the WAC Conference. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win of 20+ points the game before and believe me when I say WASHINGTON STATE win this game in an upset or they come close to it anyways.
Trend of the Game: Washington State is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus WAC Conference opponents.
Washington State 43, Hawaii 42
:toast:
RECAP
Ball State -10.5
Texas A&M +35
West Virginia -3.5
Arkansas +5
Boise State -21
UCLA +10
Miami -1 ***PLAY OF THE MONTH***
New Mexico State +6 ***PLAY OF THE YEAR***
Tennessee -3.5
Washington State +28.5
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND HAPPY THANKSGIVING! GOD BLESS THE TROOPS!
