MistaFlava's 2008 CFB Record: 30-27-1 ATS (-91.30 Units) 53%
Not having a good season at all, down some big money and struggling trying to get back to what I was at in the 2005 and 2006 seasons. It's been a rough couple of years but we still have some time to go and I think I can dig out of this hole with a few big plays. I took a week off, made some predictions of my own, saved my money and decided to just chill out for a bit. My largest lean Week 10 was on Miami over Virginia and it hit. Back to business we go, good luck to all this week.
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 100 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 4-6 ATS (+3.20 Units)
Week 2: 3-3 ATS (-12.50 Units)
Week 3: 2-3-1 ATS (-29.00 Units)
Week 4: 3-4 ATS (+7.00 Units)
Week 5: 5-2 ATS (-16.00 Units)
Week 6: 5-3 ATS (+27.50 Units)
Week 7: 0-1 ATS (-11.00 Units)
Week 8: ---No Plays---
Week 9: 5-4 ATS (-64.50 Units)
Week 10: 1-1 ATS (-6.00 Units)
Week 11: ---No Plays---
Week 12: 2-0 ATS (+10.00 ATS)
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. I am due for a huge week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Not having a good season at all, down some big money and struggling trying to get back to what I was at in the 2005 and 2006 seasons. It's been a rough couple of years but we still have some time to go and I think I can dig out of this hole with a few big plays. I took a week off, made some predictions of my own, saved my money and decided to just chill out for a bit. My largest lean Week 10 was on Miami over Virginia and it hit. Back to business we go, good luck to all this week.
The goal for the season remains to hit 65% of my plays or hit the 100 Unit mark.
1 Unit = $100
Week 1: 4-6 ATS (+3.20 Units)
Week 2: 3-3 ATS (-12.50 Units)
Week 3: 2-3-1 ATS (-29.00 Units)
Week 4: 3-4 ATS (+7.00 Units)
Week 5: 5-2 ATS (-16.00 Units)
Week 6: 5-3 ATS (+27.50 Units)
Week 7: 0-1 ATS (-11.00 Units)
Week 8: ---No Plays---
Week 9: 5-4 ATS (-64.50 Units)
Week 10: 1-1 ATS (-6.00 Units)
Week 11: ---No Plays---
Week 12: 2-0 ATS (+10.00 ATS)
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. I am due for a huge week. Good Luck to all this week!
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Thursday, November 13
Wyoming Cowboys +7 (5 Units)
Wyoming Cowboys +7 (5 Units)
The Wyoming Cowboys are back on track. After starting the season with a 2-6 SU record and an 0-7 ATS record in those games, they have since turned things around big time, won two straight games (one arguably the biggest in recent program history) and gone 2-0 SU and ATS in those games. The Cowboys are coming off a shocking 13-7 SU win over Tennessee on the road as 27 point underdogs. Now I know their track record on the road this season is not all that appealing seeing how they were shutout at BYU and New Mexico earlier this season while scoring only a touchdown against TCU. That would make it 7 points in three road games versus upper echelon teams from this Conference. Don't be discouraged though. This is a very well coached team that has underachieved pretty much all season. Can you believe their very first ATS win of the season came on November 1? At this point it looks like there is no stopping this team as they have brought in two straight ATS wins and covers, one as a dog, one as a favorite. I don't know what it is that this team has done differently the last couple of weeks but not only is coach Glenn's job on the line tonight but the season hangs in the balance and there is no doubt in my mind we will see one heck of a tight game. Wyoming comes into this game playing a lot better on the offensive side of things as they have scored 18.3 points per game in their last three games and managed 343.7 total yards of offense per game on 5.4 yards per play in those games. UNLV's defense has been absolutely horrendous the last few weeks as they have allowed a whopping 35.3 points per game in their last three games and in those games they have allowed 411.3 total yards of offense per game on 5.6 yards per play. Wyoming should have their way offensively in this one. On the ground is where the Cowboys should dominate as they have been on a rushing tear recently averaging 219.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.4 yards per carry. RB Devin Moore has rushed for 1134 yards this season and 5.3 yards per carry and he should go to town on a UNLV defense that has allowed 230.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 5.2 yards per carry. LOOKOUT! In the air, Wyoming has completed 57.1% of their passes the last three games for 8.9 yards per pass attempt and some great line play. They have allowed only 2 sacks in those games and have thrown only 1 interception which should have them ready for this game. UNLV has allowed their last three opponents to complete 59.1% of their passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt and I see them getting burned by some play action tonight. They don't have a pass rush to speak of as they have recorded only 2 sacks in their last three games and their secondary lacks knack with only 2 interceptions in that same time span. The problem with UNLV is that they have a decent team but they have been getting down early in games recently and have allowed a whopping 11.7 points per first quarter in their last three games. Wyoming has to take advantage of this and come out of the gates blazing because this is a team riding high on confidence and momentum and taking the lead is imperative. I really like the way the Cowboys have been playing because they have stayed away from stupid penalties, they are not turning the ball over as much as they were earlier this season and they look like the team that was predicted to play in a mid-range (maybe pre-Christmas) bowl game by the time this was all said and done. UNLV has been known to draw their opponents into stupid penalties and mental mistakes but their defense has been absolutely horrendous and I just don't see how they can keep up with this surging Wyoming offense. This should be a showcase game for the Cowboys offense and I see them scoring at least 28 points here. This game means a lot to the players, to the coach and to the program.
The UNLV Rebels are actually a better team that Wyoming but that doesn't mean they are going to win this game nor does it mean that they have what it takes to continue their road to a first bowl game since the 2000 season. There is no doubt the Rebels know how to score but they have had problems stopping opponents all season long and this game should be no different. This is going to be the third straight home game for the Rebels who need to win to keep their season alive and although that does look like an advantage on paper, history also says that they might be a bit too relaxed at home having been here for so long. I don't know what to expect from this team from week to week because they looked like crap in a 10 point home win over Utah State but followed that up with an impressive 34-31 win over Iowa State in overtime as a -1.5 point favorite. However, their next home game was an ugly 49-27 loss to state rivals Nevada which was followed by a 29-28 home loss to Air Force and a 44-14 home loss to TCU. So what can I say about these guys and the way they play at home? Not much. Despite winning 27-20 at home against New Mexico last week the Rebels were lucky as they were outyarded by 112 yards in that game. This is a series they have really struggled to play well in the last four season and I don't see things changing anytime soon. UNLV comes into this game averaging 25.3 points per game in their last three games but that is a bit deceiving because in those games they have managed only 298.7 total yards of offense per game on 4.6 yards per play which won't be good enough to keepup with the Wyoming offense and clock controlling. Wyoming's defense has surprisingly been pretty damn good lately allowing only 23.7 points per game in their last three games and allowing those same three opponents to average only 330.3 total yards of offense per game on 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, if UNLV cannot run the ball, they are not winning this game. They are averaging a pathetic 91.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 2.8 yards per carry and I don't see that improving at all as they have to go up against a Wyoming defense that has allowed only 76.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on a very impressive 2.6 yards per carry. That should force UNLV to throw the ball a lot more than they want as they have completed only 53.1% of their passes the last three games for 6.3 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line has done a great job allowing only 2 sacks the last three games but I think they are going to have their hands full in this game. I say that because Wyoming's secondary has allowed their last three opponents to complete only 52.7% of their passes for only 6.9 yards per pass attempt and the defensive pass rush has been outstanding with 8 sacks in the last three games. If they can get enough pressure up the middle they are sure to force some turnovers in this game which is definitely needed in such a meaningful game. I talked about UNLV's defense having problems stopping opponents in the first quarter the last three weeks but Wyoming is the complete opposite as they have allowed only 3.3 points per first quarter the last three games which should give this offense a very good chance of putting some points on the board early and never looking back. The Rebels have lost three fumbles in their last three games and with the pressure they are going to face tonight it is going to be hard to get much going on the offensive side of things. You have to give credit to the Rebels coaching staff because they have really cut down on penalties and this team is averaging only 4.7 penalties per game in their last three games but the offense has been pedestrian and had it not been for a bunch of turnovers by New Mexico last game, there is no way we would be talking about UNLV and Bowl Games in the same sentence. Wyoming's defense has been the backbone for this teams turnaround because they stopped allowing 40 point games and they really cracked down on allowing big plays. You cannot run the ball against this defensive line and because of the pressure they generate, throwing the ball is almost just as impossible. UNLV has been good at times this season and they have had the tougher schedule but their fun stops here.
This game is the season for both of these teams. The winners pretty much has a great chance to become Bowl Eligible while the losers guarantees themselves a seat in the non-Bowl team bucket for yet another season. So who wants this game more? Wyoming has dominated the series the last few years winning four straight games and winning two games in a row in this stadium. This does look like a trap game of some sorts because Wyoming is coming off a big win over Tennessee yet they are seven point underdogs against a mediocre in-conference opponent. Having said that, almost 70% of the public has their money locked and loaded on UNLV in this game and I just don't get it. Wyoming has probably been one of the worst college football wagers over the last five seasons when it comes to in-conference games. They have covered the spread in only 4 of their last 27 Mountain West Conference games which is both brutal and incredible. Having said that, they are sure as hell due to do something a) on the road and b) in Mountain West play so tonight is the night. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday Night games and despite being pathetic on the road the last two seasons, get to go up against a UNLV team that has covered the spread in only 5 of their last 16 games that follow a straight up win. Everything is on the line tonight for both teams, expect a good game and expect a Wyoming win.
Trend of the Game: Wyoming is 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday games.
Wyoming 31, UNLV 28
:toast:
The UNLV Rebels are actually a better team that Wyoming but that doesn't mean they are going to win this game nor does it mean that they have what it takes to continue their road to a first bowl game since the 2000 season. There is no doubt the Rebels know how to score but they have had problems stopping opponents all season long and this game should be no different. This is going to be the third straight home game for the Rebels who need to win to keep their season alive and although that does look like an advantage on paper, history also says that they might be a bit too relaxed at home having been here for so long. I don't know what to expect from this team from week to week because they looked like crap in a 10 point home win over Utah State but followed that up with an impressive 34-31 win over Iowa State in overtime as a -1.5 point favorite. However, their next home game was an ugly 49-27 loss to state rivals Nevada which was followed by a 29-28 home loss to Air Force and a 44-14 home loss to TCU. So what can I say about these guys and the way they play at home? Not much. Despite winning 27-20 at home against New Mexico last week the Rebels were lucky as they were outyarded by 112 yards in that game. This is a series they have really struggled to play well in the last four season and I don't see things changing anytime soon. UNLV comes into this game averaging 25.3 points per game in their last three games but that is a bit deceiving because in those games they have managed only 298.7 total yards of offense per game on 4.6 yards per play which won't be good enough to keepup with the Wyoming offense and clock controlling. Wyoming's defense has surprisingly been pretty damn good lately allowing only 23.7 points per game in their last three games and allowing those same three opponents to average only 330.3 total yards of offense per game on 5.0 yards per play. On the ground, if UNLV cannot run the ball, they are not winning this game. They are averaging a pathetic 91.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 2.8 yards per carry and I don't see that improving at all as they have to go up against a Wyoming defense that has allowed only 76.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on a very impressive 2.6 yards per carry. That should force UNLV to throw the ball a lot more than they want as they have completed only 53.1% of their passes the last three games for 6.3 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line has done a great job allowing only 2 sacks the last three games but I think they are going to have their hands full in this game. I say that because Wyoming's secondary has allowed their last three opponents to complete only 52.7% of their passes for only 6.9 yards per pass attempt and the defensive pass rush has been outstanding with 8 sacks in the last three games. If they can get enough pressure up the middle they are sure to force some turnovers in this game which is definitely needed in such a meaningful game. I talked about UNLV's defense having problems stopping opponents in the first quarter the last three weeks but Wyoming is the complete opposite as they have allowed only 3.3 points per first quarter the last three games which should give this offense a very good chance of putting some points on the board early and never looking back. The Rebels have lost three fumbles in their last three games and with the pressure they are going to face tonight it is going to be hard to get much going on the offensive side of things. You have to give credit to the Rebels coaching staff because they have really cut down on penalties and this team is averaging only 4.7 penalties per game in their last three games but the offense has been pedestrian and had it not been for a bunch of turnovers by New Mexico last game, there is no way we would be talking about UNLV and Bowl Games in the same sentence. Wyoming's defense has been the backbone for this teams turnaround because they stopped allowing 40 point games and they really cracked down on allowing big plays. You cannot run the ball against this defensive line and because of the pressure they generate, throwing the ball is almost just as impossible. UNLV has been good at times this season and they have had the tougher schedule but their fun stops here.
This game is the season for both of these teams. The winners pretty much has a great chance to become Bowl Eligible while the losers guarantees themselves a seat in the non-Bowl team bucket for yet another season. So who wants this game more? Wyoming has dominated the series the last few years winning four straight games and winning two games in a row in this stadium. This does look like a trap game of some sorts because Wyoming is coming off a big win over Tennessee yet they are seven point underdogs against a mediocre in-conference opponent. Having said that, almost 70% of the public has their money locked and loaded on UNLV in this game and I just don't get it. Wyoming has probably been one of the worst college football wagers over the last five seasons when it comes to in-conference games. They have covered the spread in only 4 of their last 27 Mountain West Conference games which is both brutal and incredible. Having said that, they are sure as hell due to do something a) on the road and b) in Mountain West play so tonight is the night. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday Night games and despite being pathetic on the road the last two seasons, get to go up against a UNLV team that has covered the spread in only 5 of their last 16 games that follow a straight up win. Everything is on the line tonight for both teams, expect a good game and expect a Wyoming win.
Trend of the Game: Wyoming is 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday games.
Wyoming 31, UNLV 28
:toast:
