Not going to get fancy with my postings, going to take a bit of a different approach here and discuss exactly what it is that I'm wagering for Week 12.
Saturday, November 21
The first game on the slate is an interesting one for me. Memphis-Temple. Both teams coming off losses, Memphis have not won since October 31 but they are good. 4-0 ATS after a loss in their last four and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games. Memphis -1. Next. Big Buckeyes fan. But please find me someone who thinks they can win by two touchdowns in this game. Funny thing is, if MSU wasn't so beat up and didn't have so many injuries and the line was say -3 for the Buckeyes, I'd pick them to win by 14+ but they haven't been good enough and 1-5 ATS in their last six home games won't cut it. Michigan State +14. Still in the B10, we have two ranked teams in Northwestern and Wisconsin both coming off bye weeks. Everyone and their momma on the Wildcats to cover the big spread but did you know that the home team is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings and yeah Wisconsin is pretty darn good coming off bye weeks. Wisconsin -10 for me. Wasn't everyone talking about LSU in the playoff only a couple of weeks ago? Okay sure. Now I see so many experts backing them to cover this spread against Ole Miss. Rebels have had a lot of time to prepare for this. Went back and looked at LSU home losses of double digits in recent years (not too many of them) and they are 1-4 ATS coming off those games. Mississippi -6. I don't know how many more PAC 12 games I can handle. At least they are early enough this week to give us a chance. How about those Ducks? Yikes they are firing on all cylinders right now and USC have been playing in over their heads since coach left. Ducks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 PAC 12 conference games and they owe the home fans something good this week. Quack Quack! Oregon -4. Keeping it in the early afternoon P12 games, what are we supposed to do with UCLA and Utah? Booker is out for the Utes but should we cry about it the way the odds are crying? No way. UCLA absolutely crushed by last second loss to Wazzou last weekend (late night). I think Utah has more to play for here and they put it together for their injured RB. Utah -1. Throw me some SEC love. Am I too late to the Arkansas party or what. I want to jump on their money train so bad but I fear I missed it by a week or two. Ah what the heck. Mississippi State couldn't even get fired up for a home date with Bama last week. Why should they do anything here. Arkansas on a 5-0 ATS run versus SEC opponents and until I have reason to not be very impressed by this, I'll take a one station ride. Arkansas -5. Underdogs? Did anyone say underdogs? Yes. right here. Wait till you see this kid on Georgia Southern. He averages almost 9 yards per carry. This is the same school that beat Florida back in 2013 so don't sleep on them and certainly don't sleep on them as a big underdog with this kind of offense. We are talking about a team that is 9-2 ATS in last 11 non conference games meanwhile Georgia is 1-4 ATS in last five home games. Bulldogs already thinking about GT next week so give me Georgia Southern +13.5 (buy the half point if you're chicken). Now what could have been a playoff matchup if they didn't play in the same conference. Baylor-OKST. Just like that the Bears are done in everyone's eyes but a win here and...who knows. Don't see it happening. Right now Oklahoma State has National attention for the first time in forever and they have absolutely dominate Baylor at home. Dominated. Yes they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games versus the Bears. What else do you want or need in this situation. Cowboys. Oklahoma State -1. Hard to justify a 9-1 team like TCU being double digit dogs against anyone not named maybe Clemson but they are against the Sooners. That's because Boykin and Doctson are probably OUT for this game. Yes that's right. Without those guys the Frogs are screwed. Boykin might play but playing injured against this D. No thanks. I'll take Stoops and friends. Oklahoma -11 (more chalk I know). Want to take a shot at the Cal-Stanford game but I've black listed all Pac 12 games that are not afternoon games after watching some of the non-sense the last couple of weeks.
Time to get a bit of sleep and right back at it in the morning.
GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!
:toast:
Saturday, November 21
The first game on the slate is an interesting one for me. Memphis-Temple. Both teams coming off losses, Memphis have not won since October 31 but they are good. 4-0 ATS after a loss in their last four and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games. Memphis -1. Next. Big Buckeyes fan. But please find me someone who thinks they can win by two touchdowns in this game. Funny thing is, if MSU wasn't so beat up and didn't have so many injuries and the line was say -3 for the Buckeyes, I'd pick them to win by 14+ but they haven't been good enough and 1-5 ATS in their last six home games won't cut it. Michigan State +14. Still in the B10, we have two ranked teams in Northwestern and Wisconsin both coming off bye weeks. Everyone and their momma on the Wildcats to cover the big spread but did you know that the home team is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings and yeah Wisconsin is pretty darn good coming off bye weeks. Wisconsin -10 for me. Wasn't everyone talking about LSU in the playoff only a couple of weeks ago? Okay sure. Now I see so many experts backing them to cover this spread against Ole Miss. Rebels have had a lot of time to prepare for this. Went back and looked at LSU home losses of double digits in recent years (not too many of them) and they are 1-4 ATS coming off those games. Mississippi -6. I don't know how many more PAC 12 games I can handle. At least they are early enough this week to give us a chance. How about those Ducks? Yikes they are firing on all cylinders right now and USC have been playing in over their heads since coach left. Ducks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 PAC 12 conference games and they owe the home fans something good this week. Quack Quack! Oregon -4. Keeping it in the early afternoon P12 games, what are we supposed to do with UCLA and Utah? Booker is out for the Utes but should we cry about it the way the odds are crying? No way. UCLA absolutely crushed by last second loss to Wazzou last weekend (late night). I think Utah has more to play for here and they put it together for their injured RB. Utah -1. Throw me some SEC love. Am I too late to the Arkansas party or what. I want to jump on their money train so bad but I fear I missed it by a week or two. Ah what the heck. Mississippi State couldn't even get fired up for a home date with Bama last week. Why should they do anything here. Arkansas on a 5-0 ATS run versus SEC opponents and until I have reason to not be very impressed by this, I'll take a one station ride. Arkansas -5. Underdogs? Did anyone say underdogs? Yes. right here. Wait till you see this kid on Georgia Southern. He averages almost 9 yards per carry. This is the same school that beat Florida back in 2013 so don't sleep on them and certainly don't sleep on them as a big underdog with this kind of offense. We are talking about a team that is 9-2 ATS in last 11 non conference games meanwhile Georgia is 1-4 ATS in last five home games. Bulldogs already thinking about GT next week so give me Georgia Southern +13.5 (buy the half point if you're chicken). Now what could have been a playoff matchup if they didn't play in the same conference. Baylor-OKST. Just like that the Bears are done in everyone's eyes but a win here and...who knows. Don't see it happening. Right now Oklahoma State has National attention for the first time in forever and they have absolutely dominate Baylor at home. Dominated. Yes they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games versus the Bears. What else do you want or need in this situation. Cowboys. Oklahoma State -1. Hard to justify a 9-1 team like TCU being double digit dogs against anyone not named maybe Clemson but they are against the Sooners. That's because Boykin and Doctson are probably OUT for this game. Yes that's right. Without those guys the Frogs are screwed. Boykin might play but playing injured against this D. No thanks. I'll take Stoops and friends. Oklahoma -11 (more chalk I know). Want to take a shot at the Cal-Stanford game but I've black listed all Pac 12 games that are not afternoon games after watching some of the non-sense the last couple of weeks.
Time to get a bit of sleep and right back at it in the morning.
GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!
:toast:
