MistaFlava's CFB Week 11 ***DEFENSIVE PROBABILITY SYSTEM*** (Tracking Thread)

[MistaFlava]

College Football Week 11

Alright here is a system I’ve been working on (since nothing else seems to work for me right now) for a while. I have created some defensive ratings for teams in their last three games (mostly) and combined other factors. Based on these defensive ratings I have picked the winners of the games with a spread of -7 or less and picked a winner using the ratings. The LOWER the rating the better First the ratings and then the picks:

Defensive Probability Ratings (Last 3 Games)

1. Central Michigan 0.86
2. Utah 1.08
3. Colorado State 1.11
4. Wyoming 1.19
5. Virginia Tech 1.37
6. Minnesota 1.38
7. UCLA 1.39
8. Temple 1.57
9. Washington State 1.58
10. Boise State 1.59
11. Texas Christian 1.67
12. NC State 1.75
13. Air Force 1.79
14. Georgia 1.82
15. Duke 1.82
16. Auburn 1.90
17. Miami Florida 1.95
18. Ohio 2.02
19. Army 2.04
20. Boston College 2.11
21. Toledo 2.14
22. Eastern Michigan 2.18
23. BYU 2.23
24. Tulane 2.24
25. Cincinnati 2.27
26. Syracuse 2.28
27. Purdue 2.29
28. Louisiana Tech 2.33
29. Georgia Tech 2.40
30. Wake Forest 2.43
31. UNLV 2.48
32. Nebraska 2.54
33. Arizona State 2.55
34. Georgia State 2.60
35. Kentucky 2.61
36. Navy 2.68
37. SMU 2.71
38. Notre Dame 2.74
39. West Virginia 2.78
40. Vanderbilt 2.93
41. Texas State 2.95
42. Northwestern 2.98
43. Florida Atlantic 3.02
44. Oklahoma 3.05
45. Kansas State 4.11
46. East Carolina 4.98


The plays for Week 11 will be ranked based on “defensive differential” according to these rankings. The higher the rating in () the bigger the play within the system.



PLAYS THIS WEEK

TCU +6.5 (33) ***TOP PLAY***
Minnesota -2.5 (26)
UCLA -2.5 (26)
Virginia Tech -3 (24)
Tulane -5 (22)
Miami Florida +3 (21)
Central Michigan +2 (20)
Temple -2.5 (17)
Louisiana Tech +5.5 (15)
Purdue +4 (15)
Wyoming +3 (9)
Brigham Young +4 (8)
NC State -3 (8)
Georgia State -6 (7)
Utah +1 (7)
Colorado State +6 (7)
West Virginia +2.5 (6)
Kentucky +2.5 (5)
Duke -3 (4)
Syracuse -1 (4)
Georgia -2.5 (2)
Navy -4.5 (1) ***LOWEST RANKED PLAY***



Let's see how this goes, GOOD LUCK TO ALL!





:toast:

 

[sportsfreak]

GL! :toast:

 

[indiana]

M/Flava.......BOL with your action this week.........indy

 

[dabigdawg3]

mark this system for later viewing........................

 

[Serbone]

UCLA has the # 7 defensive probability ranking? Georgia # 14? I know it is last 3 games, but...

 

[JinnRikki]

I like this. Some years back a poster (can't recall his handle, some old timers might help me out) had a running backs system that showed promise. I'm not a numbers guy but joining these two angles might provide good results. I love a good running game + a good defense. It's a potent combo as I think Alabama has shown.

 

[JinnRikki]

Does last 3 games strength of schedule figure in?

 

[MistaFlava]

The plays for Week 11 will be ranked based on “defensive differential” according to these rankings. The higher the rating in () the bigger the play within the system.



PLAYS THIS WEEK

TCU +6.5 (33) ***TOP PLAY***
Minnesota -2.5 (26)
UCLA -2.5 (26)
Virginia Tech -3 (24)
Tulane -5 (22)
Miami Florida +3 (21)
Central Michigan +2 (20)
Temple -2.5 (17)
Louisiana Tech +5.5 (15)
Purdue +4 (15)
Wyoming +3 (9)
Brigham Young +4 (8)
NC State -3 (8)
Georgia State -6 (7)
Utah +1 (7)
Colorado State +6 (7)
West Virginia +2.5 (6)
Kentucky +2.5 (5)
Duke -3 (4)
Syracuse -1 (4)
Georgia -2.5 (2)
Navy -4.5 (1) ***LOWEST RANKED PLAY***



Let's see how this goes, GOOD LUCK TO ALL!





:toast:

The 7th rated play (Central Michigan) hits tonight. Funny enough CMU had the highest rated defensive probability this week at 0.86 and they came up with 5 interceptions which in turn got them the win and cover. Small sample but I've been tracking this for a while in CFB and NFL basing numbers only on the last three games.

There are 23 plays listed, looking to win 15 (65%) to 18 (78%) of them (would be huge) to consider this successful.

The UCLA line is obviously up in the air if Josh Rosen doesn't play but adjustments will be made when we find out his status. Nonetheless, UCLA is the play here. Next up some Friday Night Lights.

 

[MistaFlava]

Does last 3 games strength of schedule figure in?

It carries only a very small degree in the rating, for now.

 

[MistaFlava]

On the board tonight is Temple -2.5 and BYU +4

 

[MistaFlava]

The plays for Week 11 will be ranked based on “defensive differential” according to these rankings. The higher the rating in () the bigger the play within the system.



PLAYS THIS WEEK

TCU +6.5 (33) ***TOP PLAY***
Minnesota -2.5 (26)
UCLA -2.5 (26)
Virginia Tech -3 (24)
Tulane -5 (22)
Miami Florida +3 (21)
Central Michigan +2 (20)
Temple -2.5 (17)
Louisiana Tech +5.5 (15)
Purdue +4 (15)
Wyoming +3 (9)
Brigham Young +4 (8)
NC State -3 (8)
Georgia State -6 (7)
Utah +1 (7)
Colorado State +6 (7)
West Virginia +2.5 (6)
Kentucky +2.5 (5)
Duke -3 (4)
Syracuse -1 (4)
Georgia -2.5 (2)
Navy -4.5 (1) ***LOWEST RANKED PLAY***

3-0 to start the week. Again tons of plays to kick things off but I played every single game with a line of 7 or less and used the team with the better defensive rating as a play. Hitting 65-70% would be a dream.

 

[Ketch]

Nice start!!

 

[MistaFlava]

The early plays today, not that I agree with them but based on this system are:

12:00pm Minnesota -2.5
12:00pm Duke -3
12:00pm NC State -3
12:20pm Virginia Tech -3

 

[ncmike]

The early plays today, not that I agree with them but based on this system are:

12:00pm Minnesota -2.5
12:00pm Duke -3
12:00pm NC State -3
12:20pm Virginia Tech -3

Va tech coach should give a refund to anyone who bet them. He made some seriously bad calls that swung the game ga tech's way.

Wasn't going to cover on last drive either way but how do you throw it deep on 3rd and 4th and 1? He's going to have some explaining to do

 

[sunshine11]

Purdue

 

[sunshine11]

Getem

 

[Enfuego]

10-11-1?