MistaFlava's CFB Week 1 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2017 CFB Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)

Back for another year of college football. I don't go crazy the first couple of weeks because it's hard to get a good feel for how some teams will perform but most plays will be 10 units which in my books is $1000. Just to gauge.

I will for the most part be providing writeups. Long writeups if well ahead of time, short writeups if only a few hours before the game.

Good luck to all this season

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Thursday, August 31


Florida International Panthers +17.5 (10 Units)




more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...


Thursday, August 31


Indiana Hoosiers +20 (10 Units)

The obvious play here for a lot if Ohio State but take it from a Buckeyes fan (myself), Indiana is the one team the Bucks have continuously struggled against the last 5-6 years no matter how good or bad they are. Home Opener for the Hoosiers and the crowd should play a small factor. We saw it in the past, sometimes it takes forever for the Buckeyes to get going. Ohio State finished last season 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference games. The Underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings (all Hoosiers). This will go one of two ways. Blowout or tight game. I'm leaning tight game.

Trend of the Game: Indiana is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.


Ohio State 34, Indiana 28





:toast:

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava......BOL with your action .......indy

 

[MistaFlava]

0-2 (-22.00 Units) to start the week. Not easy capping without stats. Anyone who comes out in the + in a week with no stats is a true pro.

One play tonight, will post in a few.

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Friday, September 1


Wisconsin Badgers -27 (10 Units)

Phil Steele says the Badgers are going to finish 12-0 SU on the year which means they have a shot at the playoff if everyone fails. The stats also say that Wisconin has won 21 straight home openers at Camp Randall and have won those games by 24.0 points per game. Their last few home openers have been a 34 point win over Akron (2016), a 58-0 win over Miami Ohio (2015), a 34 points win over Western Illinois (2014), and a 45 point win over UMASS (2013). Don't make any mistakes in believing that this Utah State is anything like the Chuckie Keeton Aggies team. In 2012, 2013 and 2014 the Aggies allowed less than 20 points per game but in the last two seasons they have allowed 26.7 (2015) and 29.3 (2016) and now they return only 5 of their starters on D while losing their top 3 tacklers. Utah State is not winning this game (34 straight losses versus Power 5 Conference teams on the road). Aggies have lost 19 straight road openers. Dating back to two seasons the Aggies are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. Badgers not my favorite home play, not great historically but have covered in 4 of their last 5 September games. I'm going big win by Badgers, possible shutout here.

Trend of the Game: Utah State is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games overall.


Wisconsin 47, Utah State 0





:toast:

 

[3pointdog]

Man, whisky exploded...... 59 unanswered ... I was on it as well. Nice pick..

 

[MistaFlava]

Man, whisky exploded...... 59 unanswered ... I was on it as well. Nice pick..

Unexpected after the first quarter and a half they had but I was on the other side of an implosion yesterday (Indiana) so nice recovery by the Wisky offense.

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...


Saturday, September 2 (Early)



Kent State Golden Flashes +40 (10 Units)

Don't be afraid to take the points here against the defending National Champions. I will take a lot of flack for this but there is a good chance Clemson is not "UP" for this game with some much bigger games in the horizon. The real question is can the Flashes score any points in this one and I don't see why not. With so many offensive starters gone for the Tigers, Kent State should have a decent field position a few times in this game and that should allow them to put some points up. Interesting stat from Phil Steele's magazine, the defending National Champions are 18-0 SU in their opener the following season with an average win margin of 29 points. Well off today's spread. That makes the number here even more enticing. The spread ATS stats point towards Clemson but little known is the fact that in their last 5 games versus MAC Conference opponents they are 1-3-1 ATS. Tells you a lot about their motivation for these. I'm going with Kent State.

Trend of the Game: Clemson is 1-3-1 ATS in their last four games versus MAC Conference opponents.


Clemson 44, Kent State 15




Texas Longhorns -17.5 (10 Units)

Ahhhh gone are the days of fading the Longhorns and making big bucks. Tom Herman is the man around campus these days and this is his big debut. Look no further than the fact that despite not having great teams over the last decade or so, Texas is an incredible 17-0 SU in home opener and have won those games by an average of 35 points per game. WOW! The Horns return 17 starters and should have a much better defense than past years. Maryland did go to a bowl game last year and they do have experience but defensively they have been a mess allowing at least 29.5 points per game in three straight seasons while not averaging more than 30 points per game in any seasons since 2010 on the offensive side of things. Maryland is 0-6 ATS in their last six road games while Texas is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and now with a new Head Coach. No doubt in my mind the Longhorns want to win big for Herman in his debut.

Trend of the Game: Texas is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.


Texas 47, Maryland 12




North Carolina Tar Heels -13 (10 Units)

Another case of missing a better line but I will still take it. We are talking about the classic football rule of a West Coast team coming to the East and having to play a 12:00pm ET game. Not so much in the NFL anymore but this is one you don't want to miss in college football. North Carolina is 9-1 SU in their last 10 home games and have won the last six by an average 35 points per game. HUGE! The offense is a bit of a question mark with all their top offensive stars from the last few seasons gone but the offensive line is veteran, they are tough and they should lead the way. So much talk about the inexperience of the Tar Heels offense but look at Cal. Returning 6 starters but losing only QB with experience, losing top rusher from 2016 and losing top WR. Yards will be tough to come by in this one. Don't forget Cal plays on a turf field and they are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games on natural grass. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last four games. North Carolina have covered the spread in four straight non-conference games and I see them taking care of business here.

Trend of the Game: California is 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games played on natural grass.


North Carolina 35, California 14




more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...




North Carolina State Wolfpack -6.5 (10 Units)

Not a conventional pick that's for sure because traditionally NC State sucks against SEC opponents but I really don't like the Gamecocks in this spot. This game is being played in Charlotte and South Carolina have done well in past years against the Wolfpack. Having said that, NC State is a team I have been backing for a long time early in the season where they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in September. NC State have not scored an offensive touchdown in this series since 1991 (3 meetings) but that's about to change as they return 9 starters on offense and averaged 27 points per game in 2016. No chance they don't score a touchdown here. Don't forget NC State is returning 8 defensive starters on a very good unit from 2016 that allowed only 22.8 points per game. NC State is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games and that's worth noting. I say Wolfpack win this one by 10+.

Trend of the Game: NC State is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 September games.


NC State 24, South Carolina 10




UTEP Miners +43.5 (10 Units)

HUGE underdog here and I'm all over it. The Sooners have Ohio State next week and you better believe the eyes are all over that instead of this game. They key in this one is to take an early lead, put some backups in and preserve the starters for the Buckeyes showdown which in the end will determine their season. UTEP is 0-3 SU lifetime versus Oklahoma losing by 42 points per game (falls under this spread) but they went to #7 Texas last year and lost by 34, they went to #18 Arkansas in 2015 and lost by 35 and they went to #25 Kansas State in 2014 and lost by 30. Generally they keep things close. Oklahoma is generally not good in September games as they went 0-4 ATS last season and are only 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games. This is pure situational for me so I am going with the Miners. Way too many points with such a big game coming up next week. UTEP doesn't win or keep it close but they cover the spread.

Trend of the Game: Oklahoma is 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games.


Oklahoma 47, UTEP 13




Temple Owls +18.5 (10 Units)

Oh my goodness that's a lot of points for Notre Dame who have little or no experience at the QB position coming into this game. This is one of the easier games on the slate for the Irish if you look at the big picture. The majority in Vegas will no doubt be in Notre Dame like they are for most games against unranked opponents. If you look at the last 10 years of college football, the away underdog has always been a favorable spot for Temple (25-13 ATS) and they were 4-0 ATS last season. They only return 6 starters on offense but have a ton of experience in the backfield and in their receiving corps. Temple plays their home games on grass so moving to Field Turf is always a positive for the Owls who are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played on Field Turf and Notre Dame Stadium has....Field Turf. The Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus AAC Conference opponents and I don't think they are looking forward to Georgia next week but I do believe they are going to struggle enough that this game stays close. Temple could upset. Unlikely but they could.

Trend of the Game: Temple is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games versus INDEPENDENT schools.


Notre Dame 21, Temple 20





​more to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Appalachian State Mountaineers +14 (10 Units)

Roll the dice with some of these early season matchups that include previous huge upset teams and sometimes you hit it big with a moneyline win as well as a spread win. Does anyone remember App State last season going to Tennessee and giving the Vols a scare? That game finished 20-13 Tennessee and the Mountaineers covered the +20 points. This is a pretty good Georgia team but with a road game against the Irish on the horizon you have to wonder where the focus is. This is a very veteran squad that return a ton of starters on defense but does anyone remember their home opener against Nicholls last season? They allowed 24 points and won by 2 as a -53 point favorite. App State is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games away from home and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Georgia on the other hand seem to always have slow starts to their seasons and at home that leave people scratching their heads. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and last give September games. App State makes a game of this and gives the Bulldogs a big time scare.

Trend of the Game: Appalachian State is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games.


Georgia 31, Appalachian State 24





Purdue Boilermakers +25.5 (10 Units)

Man oh man you have to believe everyone and their grandma is going to be on the Cardinals to blowout the Boilermakers. I'm not buying it. Not by this much. Don't get me wrong, Purdue has not been relevant since maybe 2007 when Curtis Painter was here or even better when Drew Brees was here but this is a better team than last year. New coach, new beginning. Looking at their roster Purdue is returning their starting QB, their entire running corps and 6 of their top 7 tacklers from 2016. Sure they have major issues on the defensive side of the ball but with 8 returning starters again this season they should improve a bit. A bit of added motivation...Jeff Brohm their head coach is a former Louisville QB. This is going to be the Lamar Jackson show anyways but who else is going to make plays? 16 of their receiving touchdowns from 2016 are gone is RB Brandon Radcliffe who aside from Jackson was the big running threat. Louisville is 0-3-1 ATS in their last four non-conference games and although I do like them to win some games big this season, I think Purdue is an improved team and they will find ways to score points against a defense that allowed 23.8 points per game last season and 322 yards. That's a lot for a National Title Contender.

Trend of the Game: Louisville is 0-3-1 ATS in their last four non-conference games.


Louisville 38, Purdue 24





​more to come...

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava.........BOL with all your action today........indy

 

[MistaFlava]

What an embarrassing day. Huge hit to the wallet. Traditional Week 1 slaughtering for me in college football, happens almost every year but I mean cmon this is brutal. Awful. Need a full reboot after this fiasco. Congrats to anyone who finished in the +. I need a drink.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Shit happens my man ... You will bounce back in no time.

Its a marathon not a sprint. The tables will turn.

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Sunday, September 3



Texas A&M-UCLA 'Under' 59 (10 Units)

- The game last year went to Overtime and finished 31-24 (total of 55 points).This year both defenses are supposed to be improved with UCLA returning 6 starters including 6 of their top 10 tacklers. A&M is an SEC defense and they return 7 starters including 7 of their top 11 tacklers.

- QB Josh Rosen has the ability to put up some huge numbers but he also the ability to make a lot of mistakes throwing 5 interceptions in only 231 pass attempts. The Aggies had 11 interceptions in 2016 although Justin Evans is gone now. They have a very experienced secondary who can make big plays and I expect to take one or two away tonight.

- Trevor Knight. GONE! Knight was not only responsible for 19 passing touchdown for A&M in 2016 but he was responsible for 10 rushing touchdowns. That's a lot of touchdowns and offense to replace although electric WR Christian Kirk is still around. The starting QB is Nick Starkel who is a red shirt freshman and has never completed (or attempted) a collegiate pass. This will no doubt force A&M into a lot of run plays against an average UCLA D-Line. They'll get some yards but will eventually have to throw the ball. Should take a ton of time off the clock with running plays, first downs (against average D-Line) and eventual punts.

- The UNDER is 5-1-1 in Texas A&M's last seven non-conference games. It is also 8-2 in their last 10 games away from home.

- Two offenses who will eventually make noise but tonight will be a struggle on both sides of the ball with the Aggies making big plays on D and then slowing the pace down on offense.


UCLA 24, Texas A&M 19




Virginia Tech Hokies -5 (10 Units))

- Something going on here. 60%+ of the public is on West Virginia to cover the spread yet the line continues to move in the Hokies favor. Wouldn't be a big concern if this was a regular Saturday game but it's a primetime game on a Sunday night of a long weekend. Has to mean something.

- The Hokies break in a new QB. Joshua Jackson is a dual threat son of a football coach and he won a three way race for the job. Dual threat is important to note here because West Virginia allowed 426 yards per game in 2016 on 4.2 yards per carry and they RETURN ONLY 3 STARTERS ON DEFENSE. They lose 12 interceptions and 13 sacks. THAT'S HUGE! So although you may think the Hokies will struggle on offense, they have weapons and play an inexperienced D.

- Sure RB Jerod Evans is gone for the Hokies but RB Travon McMillian is now in the starring role. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry (Evans 4.1) and had 7 rushing touchdowns and 3 receiving touchdowns in 2016.

- All the hype around QB Will Grier. Cmon man. Great start at Florida in 2015 but that was two years ago. Mountaineers lose 13 receiving touchdowns from 2016 and 15 rushing touchdowns with Howard gone. VIRGINIA TECH RETURNS 7 DEFENSIVE STARTERS including 8 of their top 10 tacklers. They have one of the best secondaries in college football. Pick city, play city.

- West Virginia is 2-6 ATS under Dana Holgorsen when playing on a neutral field. Neers are 3-9 SU in last 12 against Virginia Tech. West Virginia is also 6-15 ATS in their last 21 versus ACC Conference opponents.

- Virginia Tech is 4-0 ATS in their last four Sunday games (whatever that means).


Virginia Tech 33, West Virginia 20




:toast:

 

[indiana]

Mr. Flava.....no worries.......BOL tonight and week #2..........indy

 

[MistaFlava]

terrible call on the UCLA-A&M UNDER, not even close but great finish.


adding...


Monday, September 4


Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +3 (10 Units)

- Another classic case (like VT last night) where the public plays are coming in on Tennessee but the line is moving drastically towards the Yellow Jackets. Opened at -6 and is now down to -3 even with RB Dedrick Mills kicked off the team.

- Speaking of Mills, he was a huge part of this offense with 12 rushing touchdowns in 2016 but he is replaceable. This running game is system based under Paul Johnson and next man up can make things happen. Mills averaged 5.1 yards per carry last season. Anyone can do that under Johnson. Next man up.

- Tennessee allowed 5.0 yards per carry in 2016. Sure they return 7 starters on defense but under Butch Jones they have allowed 5.3 yards per carry (2013), 4.3 yards per carry (2014), 4.2 yards per carry (2015) and 5.0 in 2016.

- New QB in for the Vols, replacing the underachieving Joshua Dobbs but they key there is NEW QB. Also, new QBs for the Jackets. No idea who is starting or playing at this point but Paul Johnson has options and new QB's have never been a problem in his running schemes.

- One of the keys for me here is yes under Butch Jones the Volunteers are 4-0 ATS on neutral fields over the last four seasons but this game is being played in Atlanta. Only about 2 miles from Georgia Tech and this is going to be Yellow Jacket country so not sure about this neutral field business. Georgia Tech coming off a huge Bowl win over Kentucky in 2016 is 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus SEC Conference opponents. They too are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four neutral site games and 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games. Going Jackets and the points.


Georgia Tech 31, Tennessee 28



:toast:

 

[Vituperate]

Totally agree MF FWIW. GT has been a 'plug and play' offensive program for a number of years now. They have a roster of RBs ready for the opportunity to fit within a very sharp offensive system. Not sure about all the Volunteer love over the summer. Guess we will know soon.

GLTA

 

[MistaFlava]

Nightmare opening week is over with a WIN (thankfully) . Can only get better from here. Again, I have historically lost money on opening week, can't seem to escape those demons. Onto Week 2...