MistaFlava's CFB Week 1 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

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2016 MistaFlava's CFB Betting Record: 0-0 ATS (+0.00 Units)

It's about damn time we are back for another great season of capping and winning some cash on college football. Those who know me well know I do this for fun and mostly post my picks to give others a general direction of what I am betting on.

In the last couple of years I've won big on Bet 365 doing mostly LIVE BETTING on all sports and I've also won pretty big playing Draft Kings. But that's a whole other story and a whole other thread.

For the time being, enjoy my stuff and let's make some cash together!


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Thursday, September 1


Louisville Cardinals -38.5 (10 Units)


I'll be honest I don't know too much about the Charlotte 49ers but this is all about perception and I see a team that is going to struggle to score points in this game. This team lost their last 10 games of the regular season last year and went 1-8-2 ATS in those games. BRUTAL. I also notice that they managed to score 10 points or less in 6 of those 10 games. Again, this is the type of outcome I see tonight. In those 6 games where they failed to score more than 10 points, Charlotte lost by 20, 48, 24, 34, 34 and 10. Not tonight's magic number or anything but they are prone to blowouts.

Louisville has an incredible offense that returns just about everyone who caught a pass last year. The fire power is going to be impressive and I don't expect them to hold back even if they are up by 30 points at the half. Last year they were favored one time by 20+ points and that was against Samford where they won 45-3 and covered the -29 point spread. Ultimately their season was doomed by opening the year with 3 straight losses but the schedule is a lot softer this time around for this veteran squad and I expect some kind of fireworks to kickoff the year. The high spread is well warranted.

Another important factor for tonight is the fact that Louisville is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games versus CUSA Conference opponents and last year they went 4-1 ATS in their last five non conference games of the season. The last couple of years the Cardinals have covered the spread in 8 of their last 11 games played in September and they face a team that is still relatively new to D1 football. Charlotte was brutal on the road last year and I don't see them having any success whatsoever in this one.

Trend of the Game: Louisville is 15-3 ATS in their last 19 games versus CUSA Conference opponents.


Louisville 56, Charlotte 6




:toast:
 

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1-0 ATS (+10.00 Units) this season!


​This one was never in doubt. Few more plays tomorrow.
 

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Mr./Flava.........nicely done..........BOL with all your action this week...........enjoy the games and a profitable season............indy
 

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Good work Flava & good to see you post again. You're one of the best capper I've known.
 

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Perfect write up. Well done. Wish I played them!! Rough night for me today, but on to tomorrow!!!
 

lets do this!
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Mista you been solid capper for years here bro!:toast:
 

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Friday, September 2


Temple Owls -14.5 (10 Units)

My concerns are not too big about this spread. I know Army can move the ball and I know they can chew up a lot of time but they also turn the ball over quite a bit. Having said that, Army’s road schedule last year wasn’t too tough. Their toughest game was in Beaver Stadium where they lost only 20-13 to Penn State. Most of their losses a year ago were close. But, I don’t see them doing much without RB Aaron Kemper who was booted from the team a few weeks ago.

Temple come into this game with a bit of a chip on their shoulders. They had a brutal end to last season losing in the AAC Championship Game and then getting embarrassed in the Boca Raton Bowl (32-17 loss to Toledo). Yikes. They’ve had months to think about those two big losses. Despite some big losses on the defensive side of things, Temple’s special teams are still fantastic and looking at their home games in 2015 they 5-1 SU and won those five games by 17, 39, 14, 19 and 24. So this is a spread they should be comfortable covering tonight once they figure out how to stop the option, which I don’t see being a problem.

Friday Night Lights were not made for Army boys. The Black Knights are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Friday games and I don’t trust them in non-conference play (1-5-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games). Temple is a crazy 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games versus INDEPENDENT status teams and unlike Army they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on a Friday. Despite playing in 2013, these two teams go way back and historically Temple has dominated going 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Trend of the Game: Temple is 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games versus teams from the INDEPENDENT category.

Temple 38, Army 14




Stanford Cardinal -14.5 (10 Units)

A lot of chalk to kick things off in 2016 but that’s okay. Nobody knows much about teams at this stage and this is when you catch the books napping. Kansas State comes into this game versus the #7 team in the Country with a Quarterback who has never attempted a collegiate football pass. I mean what could go wrong with that? On the road last year Kansas State lost by 14 at Texas, lost by 15 at Texas Tech and then lost by 31 at Kansas and that was all in conference play. Inexperience is never a good thing on this stage with the lights on and the Nation watching so I just don’t see any success just yet from this team.

The Stanford Cardinal no longer have a star QB but that’s okay. They have the best all-purpose yard player in the Nation in Christian McCaffrey who should handle the ball quite nicely tonight versus a defense that allowed a whopping 452.2 total yards of offense per game last season and 31.5 points per game. Sure they’ve shored things up a bit defensively but not enough. Stanford is great at home and they have been for years. They are more experienced on defense and that will make up for the inexperience at QB this year.

Not everyone is made to play on Friday nights, believe me the dynamic is different, but Stanford are now 4-0 ATS in their last four Friday Night Lights games. Kansas State is 0-4 ATS in their last four Friday Night Games. The Wildcats are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus PAC 12 opponents and have not put up good results in non-conference play the last few seasons. I’ll go with Stanford at home.

Trend of the Game: Stanford is 38-18 ATS in their last 56 home games.

Stanford 44, Kansas State 19




Toledo Rockets +4.5 (10 Units)

Toledo were a tremendous ATS team only a year ago (and partial 2014) and there’s no reason to believe they can’t win what should be a really wild game. You all know I’m not a huge fan of underdogs unless I believe they can win the game straight up. Toledo can do just that. They kicked off 2015 with a massive 16-12 win at Arkansas and followed that up with wins at UMASS, Ball State, Central Michigan and Bowling Green. That’s a perfect 5-0 SU on the road last year and there’s no reason to believe they can’t be that good again. Catching 4.5 points? That’s crazy. I’m all over it. Let’s not forget they ended their 2015 campaign with that 32-17 win over Temple in the Boca Raton Bowl.

Arkansas State have some pretty impressive ATS numbers from last season. Their one and only home loss in 2015 was to Missouri and even then the game came down to the very end and they ended up losing 27-20. Impressive stuff. Having said that, this team is beatable and they lost their New Orleans Bowl Game to Louisiana Tech by 19 points. I still can’t explain that one. I’m not one to fade the Red Wolves at home but again I watched this Toledo team (and offense) play all of last year and I would be kicking myself if I didn’t grab a little of action on them as underdogs.

Last year Toledo went a perfect 3-0-1 ATS in their four September games and they are now 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Like I said this is a very good team and I’m quite surprised the books didn’t respect them more than this. TOLEDO HAS COVERED THE SPREAD IN 9 STRAIGHT ROAD GAMES!!! They are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games. I’m all over this. Toledon wins and upsets Arkansas State at home for the Arkansas double in 2015 + 2016.

Trend of the Game: Toledo is 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall

Toledo 48, Arkansas State 46




GOOD LUCK TO ALL!



:toast:
 

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You'll get that momentum going in no time bud! Any thoughts on tonight's game? I have this crazy feeling...with the line being 5.5 or 6....Florida State either covers the number or loses straight up
 

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