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Handicapping Machine
MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CFB Bowl Record: 6-7 ATS (+2.00 Units)
Well what do you know? I went with the ratings yesterday and went 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units). I remember these Ratings (when altered and combined) being very accurate last year in the NFL playoffs and I am going to try them out again this time around. Ratings are huge because they combined SOS, they combine how good a team really is based on what conference they play in and how strong that conference has been all season. There is no shame in tailing, fading or just watching so enjoy this while it lasts. I will try to provide a writeup for all the picks but if I don't have time (which I probably won't with work and all) I will simply post the pick and the altered line instead.
When using Sagarin Power Ratings and combining with gross BCS standard ratings, I have noticed that the results have been pretty damn accurate.
11-3 ATS using these power ratings
Listed Below are the games already played with what the line should have been according to these ratings. Highlighted are wins and losses so far.
Dec. 20...Wake Forest -3 (Sagarin Altered line Wake Forest -3.21)
Dec. 20...Colorado State +2 (Sagarin Altered line Colorado State -0.43)
Dec. 20...South Florida -10.5 (Sagarin Altered line South Florida -12.09)
Dec. 20...BYU +3 (Sagarin Altered line BYU -11.55)
Dec. 21...Southern Miss +4.5 (Sagarin Altered line Troy -3.53)
Dec. 23...Boise State +3.5 (Sagarin Altered line Boise State -0.58)
Dec. 24...Hawaii +2.5 (Sagarin Altered line Notre Dame -0.37)
Dec. 26...Central Michigan -7 (Sagarin Altered line Central Michigan -8.22)
Dec. 27...North Carolina +2.5 (Sagarin Altered line North Carolina -3.98)
Dec. 27...Florida State -7 (Sagarin Altered line Florida State -10.11)
Dec. 27...Miami Florida +10 (Sagarin Altered line Miami -3.06)
Dec. 28...Louisiana Tech -2.5 (Sagarin Altered line Louisiana Tech -3.61)
Dec. 29...NC State +6.5 (Sagarin Altered line NC State -1.81)
Dec. 29...Northwestern +12 (Sagarin Altered line Missouri -3.72)
6 straight wins
I have decided to use these Power Ratings for the remainder of the Bowl Season because they were on fire last season and they seem to really be on the ball when it comes to the lines. Miami was supposed to be favored and they covered the spread easily and a bunch of other underdogs should have been favored in these games but were dogs instead. Let's see where this leads.
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Well what do you know? I went with the ratings yesterday and went 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units). I remember these Ratings (when altered and combined) being very accurate last year in the NFL playoffs and I am going to try them out again this time around. Ratings are huge because they combined SOS, they combine how good a team really is based on what conference they play in and how strong that conference has been all season. There is no shame in tailing, fading or just watching so enjoy this while it lasts. I will try to provide a writeup for all the picks but if I don't have time (which I probably won't with work and all) I will simply post the pick and the altered line instead.
When using Sagarin Power Ratings and combining with gross BCS standard ratings, I have noticed that the results have been pretty damn accurate.
11-3 ATS using these power ratings
Listed Below are the games already played with what the line should have been according to these ratings. Highlighted are wins and losses so far.
Dec. 20...Wake Forest -3 (Sagarin Altered line Wake Forest -3.21)
Dec. 20...Colorado State +2 (Sagarin Altered line Colorado State -0.43)
Dec. 20...South Florida -10.5 (Sagarin Altered line South Florida -12.09)
Dec. 20...BYU +3 (Sagarin Altered line BYU -11.55)
Dec. 21...Southern Miss +4.5 (Sagarin Altered line Troy -3.53)
Dec. 23...Boise State +3.5 (Sagarin Altered line Boise State -0.58)
Dec. 24...Hawaii +2.5 (Sagarin Altered line Notre Dame -0.37)
Dec. 26...Central Michigan -7 (Sagarin Altered line Central Michigan -8.22)
Dec. 27...North Carolina +2.5 (Sagarin Altered line North Carolina -3.98)
Dec. 27...Florida State -7 (Sagarin Altered line Florida State -10.11)
Dec. 27...Miami Florida +10 (Sagarin Altered line Miami -3.06)
Dec. 28...Louisiana Tech -2.5 (Sagarin Altered line Louisiana Tech -3.61)
Dec. 29...NC State +6.5 (Sagarin Altered line NC State -1.81)
Dec. 29...Northwestern +12 (Sagarin Altered line Missouri -3.72)
6 straight wins
I have decided to use these Power Ratings for the remainder of the Bowl Season because they were on fire last season and they seem to really be on the ball when it comes to the lines. Miami was supposed to be favored and they covered the spread easily and a bunch of other underdogs should have been favored in these games but were dogs instead. Let's see where this leads.
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Tuesday, December 30
HUMANITARIAN BOWL
View attachment 6110
View attachment 6108 Maryland Terrapins +3 (10 Units) View attachment 6109
HUMANITARIAN BOWL
View attachment 6110
View attachment 6108 Maryland Terrapins +3 (10 Units) View attachment 6109
The Nevada Wolfpack have a huge task on their hands in this game and that is beating an ACC Conference team as favorites. I say that because ACC Conference teams are perfect so far this Bowl Season and despite being the worst of the bunch, the Terrapins still pack some of that East Coast punch and I think it pays off in this game. Nevada finished the regular season with a 7-5 SU record playing out of the WAC Conference but they went only 5-6 ATS in those games and weren't exactly big moneymakers for people who backed them this past fall. Taking a look back at the Woldpack's season, they opened things off with a big non-lined game win over Grambling State but then lost at home to Texas Tech by 16 which was not a lot at the time as they were +10.5 in that game. Then came a three game road trip for the Wolfpack as they opened that up with a 52 point loss at Missouri but bounced back nicely from that with a 22 point win at UNLV and a 35 point win at Idaho (neither team making the post-season). When favored away from home Nevada went 2-2 ATS this season and I have to point out right now that only 2 of Nevada's 7 wins this season came against teams that are playing in Bowl Games (Louisiana Tech and Fresno State). That's a great indication of how weak their schedule has been this season as they have the #88 ranked strength of schedule this season and facing a team like Maryland could be deadly for these guys. Nevada comes into this game with one of the top offenses in the Country as they average a whopping 37.8 points per game on the year and have managed to get that done by also averaging 510.0 total yards of offense per game and averaging 6.6 yards per play in those games as well. Now that is some kind of offense. I won't go as far as saying that Maryland has a great defense because they don't but they have held their own (much like Northwestern yesterday) and have allowed 21.4 points per game this season on 355.6 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play in those games. Keep in mind however that this is while playing in the best conference there was this past season in college football. On the ground, Nevada has the #2 rushing attack in the Nation coming into this game as they average 290.8 rushing yards per game this season on 6.3 yards per carry but I don't buy into that too much seeing how they play in the WAC Conference and don't face many good defenses all year. Maryland does have some weaknesses in their run game but believe me they will be ready in this game even though they allowed 150.0 rushing yards per game this season on 4.0 yards per carry which is not that bad at all. My suspicion is that Maryland will stack the line and force Nevada to beat them through the air as QB Colin Kaepernik has completed only 54.9% of his passes this season for 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 19 touchdown passes, 2479 passing yards and 5 interceptions which is quite impressive but might not be all that good against an ACC defense. The Terrapins have allowed opposing QB's to complete 62.0% of their passes this season for 6.6 yards per pass attempt in those games and although that sounds like a lot, they are a bend but don't break type of defense that can come up with the occasional big plays here and there. Nevada's offensive line has allowed 16 sacks in 12 games this season and they are going to be under pressure from a Maryland pass rush that has 24 sacks in their 12 games this season. That means a lot more pressure than they are accustomed to seeing and it also means a lot more mistakes on the way from this Nevada team. Despite throwing only 5 interceptions all season, I think Kaepernik is in for a tough time in this game and the fact that Maryland has only 7 interceptions this season against ACC offenses means they are taking a step down in competition and they should come up with some big plays in this game. Unlike Navy and their potent rushing attack, Nevada fumbles the ball a lot more than the Midshipmen as they have lost 12 fumbles on the season after fumbling 17 times while running the ball. That's definitely not good news agaisnt a defense like Maryland that is aggressive and that loves to go after the ball as they have forced 16 fumbles in 12 games this season but managed to recover only 6 of those fumbles on the season. I also think Nevada is going to lack big time discpline in this afternoon's game as they have taken 7.1 penalties per game this season and the frustrations of facing an ACC defense could start early in this game as they have not seen this kind of pressure pretty much all season long. Don't get me wrong, Nevada is a good team and their offense is impressive, I just think the Maryland defense (despite all the injuries) have a lot more to play for here. The Terps come up with some huge plays on defense when it matters most in this game and that's enough to win and cover.
The Maryland Terrapins know they did not have the best of regular seasons but I have said it before and I will keep saying it...they played in the toughest conference in all of college football and still managed to make it to the post-season which is an accomplishment in itself. Having said that, they faced the #21 toughest schedule in the Nation which would help explain their 7-5 SU record. So right now you have two teams this afternoon. One of them (Nevada) finished at 7-5 SU on the season with the #88 ranked scheduel toughness in the Nation and the other (Maryland) finished the season 7-5 SU with the #21 toughest schedule in the Nation. The Terrapins did not finish the season the way they wanted to finish the season by losing 3 of their last 4 games but something tells me that is going to motivate them to win this game. Those losses came against Boston College, Florida State and Virginia Tech which is nothing to be ashamed of seeing how the Seminoles won their Bowl Game large a few days ago, Boston College (ACC Championship finalists) is probably going to walk all over Vanderbilt in their upcoming Bowl Game and Virginia Tech won the ACC Conference and are now playing in a BCS Bowl Game. So those were good teams they lost to. The Terps did record huge wins this season against California, Wake Forest (both won their Bowl Games), NC State and North Carolina...all of which either won their Bowl Games or covered the spread in their Bowl Games this season. Maryland comes into this game averaging 20.1 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 342.3 total yards of offense per game in those games on 5.3 yards per play. Does that not sound like most ACC offenses where they don't score much but find ways to win big games and play solid defense? Well despite some of their struggles this season, Maryland gets to face a Nevada defense that allowed 31.5 points per game this season and that allowed 396.5 total yards of offense per game this season on 5.9 yards per play in those games. That's not so bad but keep in mind that they do play in the WAC Conference and that's a lot of yards to allow. On the ground, Maryland has been solid all season pounding away on opponents and rushing for 134.8 rushing yards per game for 4.1 yards per carry in those games. This team has a plethora of guys who can run the ball and run it really. I know Nevada has one of the best run defenses in the 'other' conferences as they have allowed only 75.3 rushing yards per game this season and in those games have held opponents to a very impressive 2.7 yards per carry. Well get ready for those numbers to take a big hit because Maryland is going to pound away on the ground until it works and even if it doesn't work, it will setup some nice play action and some big plays downfield. Don't forget the Terps have one of the best WR's in the Nation in Darrius Heyward-Bey and you know he will be involved in his grand finale tonight. In the air, Maryland QB Chris Turner is coming off a decent season as he was able to complete 57.9% of his passes for 2320 passing yards, 6.7 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. Having said that, get ready for a Christ Turner coming out party in this game as he gets to face a Nevada defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 54.3% of their passes, which sounds good, but for 8.1 yards per pass attempt which means the Turner to Heyward-Bey connection is going to open up shop and make some dough tonight. The Wolfpack secondary is too slow for the speed of Heyward-Bey and the fact that Maryland is going to run and run early in this game is going to soften these guys up even more in the secondary. Turner has been under pressure all season as he has been sacked 25 times in 12 games this season and he's not very good when it comes to moving around but the running game should take care of that tonight and it should take away some of the pressure Nevada will attempt to bring his way as they have 34 sacks in 12 games this season and have some big time pressure packages for the Terps to handle. That pressure has helped them intercept 14 passes in 12 games this season and even though Turner does throw a lot of picks, he does make some big plays downfield and again the running game is going to allow him to really open things up in the air as this game goes along. Nevada has recovered only 7 fumbles all season and Maryland has not been a team that loses the ball a lot this season as they have lost only 10 fumbles in 12 games on the year. I also like the fact that Maryland is a discplined team that is not going to kill themselves early with stupid penalties as they take only 4.6 penalties per game this season and will probably find a way to really frustrate the Woldpack early in this game and force them into some stupid penalties. Maryland might not have the offensive performance of a lifetime in this game but they will do enough on both sides of the ball to hold Nevada to numbers way below what they are used to on the season and believe me when I say that Heyward-Bey and Turner are going to hookup for some huge plays in this game. The Terps should not be underdogs in this game and despite the recent amount of underdogs covering spreads, I think Maryland finds a way to win a close game here.
What you people need to understand and you need to understand it right now is that the ACC CONFERENCE IS THE #1 RANKED CONFERENCE IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL THIS SEASON AND ACC TEAMS ARE 5-0 ATS THIS BOWL SEASON. What more do you need to know really? I don't care what anyone says about the SEC (which sucked ass this season) and the Big 12 (offense no defense conference), they don't even come close to what the ACC did this season and the amount of Bowl teams they provided so it is somewhat of a travesty that they don't have a team good enough to play in the BCS Championship Game. So a lot of you are on Nevada (WAC Conference) in this game but I still don't understand what the reasoning is behind that? Yes Maryland is one of the worst ACC teams that made the post-season but again being from the best conference, that's not saying much and NC State is actually ranked a little bit lower than these guys. A lot of angles point to a Nevada win and cover in this game. I say that because the Wolfpack are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games played on field turf and they have done well recently as short point favorites. On the flip side of things Mayrland is 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss and although they have not done well on Field Turf going 1-4 ATS in their last five games on this surface, I think this is a game they win, although it won't be easy. Maryland is a better team than most people think and their wins this season are pure proof. ANOTHER DOG BARKS!
Sagarin Altered Line: Maryland -6.15
Trend of the Game: Maryland is 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss.
Maryland 24, Nevada 23
:toast:
Like I said before, these altered POWER RATINGS have worked in the past and I think they will continue to work. Enjoy them, I will post the next two games as the day goes. GL this afternoon.
The Maryland Terrapins know they did not have the best of regular seasons but I have said it before and I will keep saying it...they played in the toughest conference in all of college football and still managed to make it to the post-season which is an accomplishment in itself. Having said that, they faced the #21 toughest schedule in the Nation which would help explain their 7-5 SU record. So right now you have two teams this afternoon. One of them (Nevada) finished at 7-5 SU on the season with the #88 ranked scheduel toughness in the Nation and the other (Maryland) finished the season 7-5 SU with the #21 toughest schedule in the Nation. The Terrapins did not finish the season the way they wanted to finish the season by losing 3 of their last 4 games but something tells me that is going to motivate them to win this game. Those losses came against Boston College, Florida State and Virginia Tech which is nothing to be ashamed of seeing how the Seminoles won their Bowl Game large a few days ago, Boston College (ACC Championship finalists) is probably going to walk all over Vanderbilt in their upcoming Bowl Game and Virginia Tech won the ACC Conference and are now playing in a BCS Bowl Game. So those were good teams they lost to. The Terps did record huge wins this season against California, Wake Forest (both won their Bowl Games), NC State and North Carolina...all of which either won their Bowl Games or covered the spread in their Bowl Games this season. Maryland comes into this game averaging 20.1 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 342.3 total yards of offense per game in those games on 5.3 yards per play. Does that not sound like most ACC offenses where they don't score much but find ways to win big games and play solid defense? Well despite some of their struggles this season, Maryland gets to face a Nevada defense that allowed 31.5 points per game this season and that allowed 396.5 total yards of offense per game this season on 5.9 yards per play in those games. That's not so bad but keep in mind that they do play in the WAC Conference and that's a lot of yards to allow. On the ground, Maryland has been solid all season pounding away on opponents and rushing for 134.8 rushing yards per game for 4.1 yards per carry in those games. This team has a plethora of guys who can run the ball and run it really. I know Nevada has one of the best run defenses in the 'other' conferences as they have allowed only 75.3 rushing yards per game this season and in those games have held opponents to a very impressive 2.7 yards per carry. Well get ready for those numbers to take a big hit because Maryland is going to pound away on the ground until it works and even if it doesn't work, it will setup some nice play action and some big plays downfield. Don't forget the Terps have one of the best WR's in the Nation in Darrius Heyward-Bey and you know he will be involved in his grand finale tonight. In the air, Maryland QB Chris Turner is coming off a decent season as he was able to complete 57.9% of his passes for 2320 passing yards, 6.7 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. Having said that, get ready for a Christ Turner coming out party in this game as he gets to face a Nevada defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 54.3% of their passes, which sounds good, but for 8.1 yards per pass attempt which means the Turner to Heyward-Bey connection is going to open up shop and make some dough tonight. The Wolfpack secondary is too slow for the speed of Heyward-Bey and the fact that Maryland is going to run and run early in this game is going to soften these guys up even more in the secondary. Turner has been under pressure all season as he has been sacked 25 times in 12 games this season and he's not very good when it comes to moving around but the running game should take care of that tonight and it should take away some of the pressure Nevada will attempt to bring his way as they have 34 sacks in 12 games this season and have some big time pressure packages for the Terps to handle. That pressure has helped them intercept 14 passes in 12 games this season and even though Turner does throw a lot of picks, he does make some big plays downfield and again the running game is going to allow him to really open things up in the air as this game goes along. Nevada has recovered only 7 fumbles all season and Maryland has not been a team that loses the ball a lot this season as they have lost only 10 fumbles in 12 games on the year. I also like the fact that Maryland is a discplined team that is not going to kill themselves early with stupid penalties as they take only 4.6 penalties per game this season and will probably find a way to really frustrate the Woldpack early in this game and force them into some stupid penalties. Maryland might not have the offensive performance of a lifetime in this game but they will do enough on both sides of the ball to hold Nevada to numbers way below what they are used to on the season and believe me when I say that Heyward-Bey and Turner are going to hookup for some huge plays in this game. The Terps should not be underdogs in this game and despite the recent amount of underdogs covering spreads, I think Maryland finds a way to win a close game here.
What you people need to understand and you need to understand it right now is that the ACC CONFERENCE IS THE #1 RANKED CONFERENCE IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL THIS SEASON AND ACC TEAMS ARE 5-0 ATS THIS BOWL SEASON. What more do you need to know really? I don't care what anyone says about the SEC (which sucked ass this season) and the Big 12 (offense no defense conference), they don't even come close to what the ACC did this season and the amount of Bowl teams they provided so it is somewhat of a travesty that they don't have a team good enough to play in the BCS Championship Game. So a lot of you are on Nevada (WAC Conference) in this game but I still don't understand what the reasoning is behind that? Yes Maryland is one of the worst ACC teams that made the post-season but again being from the best conference, that's not saying much and NC State is actually ranked a little bit lower than these guys. A lot of angles point to a Nevada win and cover in this game. I say that because the Wolfpack are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games played on field turf and they have done well recently as short point favorites. On the flip side of things Mayrland is 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss and although they have not done well on Field Turf going 1-4 ATS in their last five games on this surface, I think this is a game they win, although it won't be easy. Maryland is a better team than most people think and their wins this season are pure proof. ANOTHER DOG BARKS!
Sagarin Altered Line: Maryland -6.15
Trend of the Game: Maryland is 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss.
Maryland 24, Nevada 23
:toast:
Like I said before, these altered POWER RATINGS have worked in the past and I think they will continue to work. Enjoy them, I will post the next two games as the day goes. GL this afternoon.
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