MistaFlava's CFB Tuesday ****BOWL POWER SELECTIONS*** (Power Ratings System 11-3 ATS)

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MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CFB Bowl Record: 6-7 ATS (+2.00 Units)

Well what do you know? I went with the ratings yesterday and went 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units). I remember these Ratings (when altered and combined) being very accurate last year in the NFL playoffs and I am going to try them out again this time around. Ratings are huge because they combined SOS, they combine how good a team really is based on what conference they play in and how strong that conference has been all season. There is no shame in tailing, fading or just watching so enjoy this while it lasts. I will try to provide a writeup for all the picks but if I don't have time (which I probably won't with work and all) I will simply post the pick and the altered line instead.

When using Sagarin Power Ratings and combining with gross BCS standard ratings, I have noticed that the results have been pretty damn accurate.


11-3 ATS using these power ratings



Listed Below are the games already played with what the line should have been according to these ratings. Highlighted are wins and losses so far.


Dec. 20...Wake Forest -3 (
Sagarin Altered line Wake Forest -3.21)
Dec. 20...Colorado State +2 (
Sagarin Altered line Colorado State -0.43)
Dec. 20...South Florida -10.5 (
Sagarin Altered line South Florida -12.09)
Dec. 20...BYU +3 (
Sagarin Altered line BYU -11.55)
Dec. 21...Southern Miss +4.5 (
Sagarin Altered line Troy -3.53)
Dec. 23...Boise State +3.5 (
Sagarin Altered line Boise State -0.58)
Dec. 24...Hawaii +2.5 (
Sagarin Altered line Notre Dame -0.37)
Dec. 26...Central Michigan -7 (
Sagarin Altered line Central Michigan -8.22)
Dec. 27...North Carolina +2.5 (
Sagarin Altered line North Carolina -3.98)
Dec. 27...Florida State -7 (
Sagarin Altered line Florida State -10.11)
Dec. 27...Miami Florida +10 (
Sagarin Altered line Miami -3.06)
Dec. 28...Louisiana Tech -2.5 (
Sagarin Altered line Louisiana Tech -3.61)
Dec. 29...NC State +6.5
(Sagarin Altered line NC State -1.81)
Dec. 29...Northwestern +12 (Sagarin Altered line Missouri -3.72)


6 straight wins

I have decided to use these Power Ratings for the remainder of the Bowl Season because they were on fire last season and they seem to really be on the ball when it comes to the lines. Miami was supposed to be favored and they covered the spread easily and a bunch of other underdogs should have been favored in these games but were dogs instead. Let's see where this leads.

-------------------------------------------------



Tuesday, December 30


HUMANITARIAN BOWL

View attachment 6110


View attachment 6108 Maryland Terrapins +3 (10 Units) View attachment 6109

The Nevada Wolfpack have a huge task on their hands in this game and that is beating an ACC Conference team as favorites. I say that because ACC Conference teams are perfect so far this Bowl Season and despite being the worst of the bunch, the Terrapins still pack some of that East Coast punch and I think it pays off in this game. Nevada finished the regular season with a 7-5 SU record playing out of the WAC Conference but they went only 5-6 ATS in those games and weren't exactly big moneymakers for people who backed them this past fall. Taking a look back at the Woldpack's season, they opened things off with a big non-lined game win over Grambling State but then lost at home to Texas Tech by 16 which was not a lot at the time as they were +10.5 in that game. Then came a three game road trip for the Wolfpack as they opened that up with a 52 point loss at Missouri but bounced back nicely from that with a 22 point win at UNLV and a 35 point win at Idaho (neither team making the post-season). When favored away from home Nevada went 2-2 ATS this season and I have to point out right now that only 2 of Nevada's 7 wins this season came against teams that are playing in Bowl Games (Louisiana Tech and Fresno State). That's a great indication of how weak their schedule has been this season as they have the #88 ranked strength of schedule this season and facing a team like Maryland could be deadly for these guys. Nevada comes into this game with one of the top offenses in the Country as they average a whopping 37.8 points per game on the year and have managed to get that done by also averaging 510.0 total yards of offense per game and averaging 6.6 yards per play in those games as well. Now that is some kind of offense. I won't go as far as saying that Maryland has a great defense because they don't but they have held their own (much like Northwestern yesterday) and have allowed 21.4 points per game this season on 355.6 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play in those games. Keep in mind however that this is while playing in the best conference there was this past season in college football. On the ground, Nevada has the #2 rushing attack in the Nation coming into this game as they average 290.8 rushing yards per game this season on 6.3 yards per carry but I don't buy into that too much seeing how they play in the WAC Conference and don't face many good defenses all year. Maryland does have some weaknesses in their run game but believe me they will be ready in this game even though they allowed 150.0 rushing yards per game this season on 4.0 yards per carry which is not that bad at all. My suspicion is that Maryland will stack the line and force Nevada to beat them through the air as QB Colin Kaepernik has completed only 54.9% of his passes this season for 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 19 touchdown passes, 2479 passing yards and 5 interceptions which is quite impressive but might not be all that good against an ACC defense. The Terrapins have allowed opposing QB's to complete 62.0% of their passes this season for 6.6 yards per pass attempt in those games and although that sounds like a lot, they are a bend but don't break type of defense that can come up with the occasional big plays here and there. Nevada's offensive line has allowed 16 sacks in 12 games this season and they are going to be under pressure from a Maryland pass rush that has 24 sacks in their 12 games this season. That means a lot more pressure than they are accustomed to seeing and it also means a lot more mistakes on the way from this Nevada team. Despite throwing only 5 interceptions all season, I think Kaepernik is in for a tough time in this game and the fact that Maryland has only 7 interceptions this season against ACC offenses means they are taking a step down in competition and they should come up with some big plays in this game. Unlike Navy and their potent rushing attack, Nevada fumbles the ball a lot more than the Midshipmen as they have lost 12 fumbles on the season after fumbling 17 times while running the ball. That's definitely not good news agaisnt a defense like Maryland that is aggressive and that loves to go after the ball as they have forced 16 fumbles in 12 games this season but managed to recover only 6 of those fumbles on the season. I also think Nevada is going to lack big time discpline in this afternoon's game as they have taken 7.1 penalties per game this season and the frustrations of facing an ACC defense could start early in this game as they have not seen this kind of pressure pretty much all season long. Don't get me wrong, Nevada is a good team and their offense is impressive, I just think the Maryland defense (despite all the injuries) have a lot more to play for here. The Terps come up with some huge plays on defense when it matters most in this game and that's enough to win and cover.

The Maryland Terrapins know they did not have the best of regular seasons but I have said it before and I will keep saying it...they played in the toughest conference in all of college football and still managed to make it to the post-season which is an accomplishment in itself. Having said that, they faced the #21 toughest schedule in the Nation which would help explain their 7-5 SU record. So right now you have two teams this afternoon. One of them (Nevada) finished at 7-5 SU on the season with the #88 ranked scheduel toughness in the Nation and the other (Maryland) finished the season 7-5 SU with the #21 toughest schedule in the Nation. The Terrapins did not finish the season the way they wanted to finish the season by losing 3 of their last 4 games but something tells me that is going to motivate them to win this game. Those losses came against Boston College, Florida State and Virginia Tech which is nothing to be ashamed of seeing how the Seminoles won their Bowl Game large a few days ago, Boston College (ACC Championship finalists) is probably going to walk all over Vanderbilt in their upcoming Bowl Game and Virginia Tech won the ACC Conference and are now playing in a BCS Bowl Game. So those were good teams they lost to. The Terps did record huge wins this season against California, Wake Forest (both won their Bowl Games), NC State and North Carolina...all of which either won their Bowl Games or covered the spread in their Bowl Games this season. Maryland comes into this game averaging 20.1 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 342.3 total yards of offense per game in those games on 5.3 yards per play. Does that not sound like most ACC offenses where they don't score much but find ways to win big games and play solid defense? Well despite some of their struggles this season, Maryland gets to face a Nevada defense that allowed 31.5 points per game this season and that allowed 396.5 total yards of offense per game this season on 5.9 yards per play in those games. That's not so bad but keep in mind that they do play in the WAC Conference and that's a lot of yards to allow. On the ground, Maryland has been solid all season pounding away on opponents and rushing for 134.8 rushing yards per game for 4.1 yards per carry in those games. This team has a plethora of guys who can run the ball and run it really. I know Nevada has one of the best run defenses in the 'other' conferences as they have allowed only 75.3 rushing yards per game this season and in those games have held opponents to a very impressive 2.7 yards per carry. Well get ready for those numbers to take a big hit because Maryland is going to pound away on the ground until it works and even if it doesn't work, it will setup some nice play action and some big plays downfield. Don't forget the Terps have one of the best WR's in the Nation in Darrius Heyward-Bey and you know he will be involved in his grand finale tonight. In the air, Maryland QB Chris Turner is coming off a decent season as he was able to complete 57.9% of his passes for 2320 passing yards, 6.7 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. Having said that, get ready for a Christ Turner coming out party in this game as he gets to face a Nevada defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 54.3% of their passes, which sounds good, but for 8.1 yards per pass attempt which means the Turner to Heyward-Bey connection is going to open up shop and make some dough tonight. The Wolfpack secondary is too slow for the speed of Heyward-Bey and the fact that Maryland is going to run and run early in this game is going to soften these guys up even more in the secondary. Turner has been under pressure all season as he has been sacked 25 times in 12 games this season and he's not very good when it comes to moving around but the running game should take care of that tonight and it should take away some of the pressure Nevada will attempt to bring his way as they have 34 sacks in 12 games this season and have some big time pressure packages for the Terps to handle. That pressure has helped them intercept 14 passes in 12 games this season and even though Turner does throw a lot of picks, he does make some big plays downfield and again the running game is going to allow him to really open things up in the air as this game goes along. Nevada has recovered only 7 fumbles all season and Maryland has not been a team that loses the ball a lot this season as they have lost only 10 fumbles in 12 games on the year. I also like the fact that Maryland is a discplined team that is not going to kill themselves early with stupid penalties as they take only 4.6 penalties per game this season and will probably find a way to really frustrate the Woldpack early in this game and force them into some stupid penalties. Maryland might not have the offensive performance of a lifetime in this game but they will do enough on both sides of the ball to hold Nevada to numbers way below what they are used to on the season and believe me when I say that Heyward-Bey and Turner are going to hookup for some huge plays in this game. The Terps should not be underdogs in this game and despite the recent amount of underdogs covering spreads, I think Maryland finds a way to win a close game here.

What you people need to understand and you need to understand it right now is that the ACC CONFERENCE IS THE #1 RANKED CONFERENCE IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL THIS SEASON AND ACC TEAMS ARE 5-0 ATS THIS BOWL SEASON. What more do you need to know really? I don't care what anyone says about the SEC (which sucked ass this season) and the Big 12 (offense no defense conference), they don't even come close to what the ACC did this season and the amount of Bowl teams they provided so it is somewhat of a travesty that they don't have a team good enough to play in the BCS Championship Game. So a lot of you are on Nevada (WAC Conference) in this game but I still don't understand what the reasoning is behind that? Yes Maryland is one of the worst ACC teams that made the post-season but again being from the best conference, that's not saying much and NC State is actually ranked a little bit lower than these guys. A lot of angles point to a Nevada win and cover in this game. I say that because the Wolfpack are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games played on field turf and they have done well recently as short point favorites. On the flip side of things Mayrland is 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss and although they have not done well on Field Turf going 1-4 ATS in their last five games on this surface, I think this is a game they win, although it won't be easy. Maryland is a better team than most people think and their wins this season are pure proof. ANOTHER DOG BARKS!

Sagarin Altered Line: Maryland -6.15

Trend of the Game:
Maryland is 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss.


Maryland 24, Nevada 23





:toast:





Like I said before, these altered POWER RATINGS have worked in the past and I think they will continue to work. Enjoy them, I will post the next two games as the day goes. GL this afternoon.
 
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To me, the biggest thing working against Maryland is the fact that it will be hard for them to get fired up playing in the freakin Humanitarian Bowl on blue turf. There have been a number of quotes from Maryland players posted that seem pretty damning. Even if Maryland is the better team on paper, don't you think Nevada has an emotional edge in this game?
 

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:ohno:

:nono5::nono5::nono5::nono5::nono5:

one team will be howling after this game and its not the terps
 

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I really like MD in this match up, but the concerns I have are these:

Nevada seems to want this more!
Nevada has more experience on the smurf turf!
Current ACC sweep....someone has to fall, right?

That said, my lean was to MD, but now a toss up!

Thoughts?
 

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To me, the biggest thing working against Maryland is the fact that it will be hard for them to get fired up playing in the freakin Humanitarian Bowl on blue turf. There have been a number of quotes from Maryland players posted that seem pretty damning. Even if Maryland is the better team on paper, don't you think Nevada has an emotional edge in this game?


Why does everyone keep saying this? Have you ever played college football? I certainly have and I can tell you that no matter what you may say prior to a game, once the whistle blows, your football instincts take over and you want to win. So because of an article in a Washington paper with some quotes from guys who seem disappointed, suddenly Maryland doesn't want to play football? Give me a break guys, playing football is everything to these guys and they won't let themselves give a half assed effort, it's just not in football players nature.
 

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Mista, what do you mean by altered line? What power ratings of sag are you using?
good luck:toast:

Have you tried running any xbox sims for these games?
 

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alright guys here is play #2 for tonight's games:



Tuesday, December 30


TEXAS BOWL

View attachment 6113


View attachment 6112 Western Michigan Broncos +2.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6111

The Western Michigan Broncos would be favored in this game if it were being played anywhere else but in the state of Texas but because this is considered a home game for Rice, we are getting points with the Broncos. Big mistake if you ask me. The Broncos are not as decorated in terms of covering spreads and winning games big as Rice would be considered but that doesn't mean this is not a great matchup for them and I really think they can put up some points and finish out on top. How can you hate on a team that lost only three games all season and that finished with a very respectable 9-3 SU record on the year. Their only losses on the year came against Ball State (MAC Conference finalists), Central Michigan (one of the best teams in the MAC year in and year out) and Nebraska (another Bowl bound team from the Big 12). Yes the Broncos went 0-3 ATS as well in those losses but those are some good teams and I cannot really fault them. The Broncos did beat everyone else in their conference this season and in their other non-conference games they had no problems taking care of business against much weaker opponents like Idaho and Tennessee State. It's going to be hard for some of you to back the Broncos here because they went only 2-4 ATS on the road this season but did manage to go 2-2 ATS as underdogs and I really give them a chance of pulling off the upset in this game. As I mentioned before, I think the wrong team is favored and even if they do lose this game, it will be by a missed extra point or something crazy like that which would be enough to cover the spread in the end. Western Michigan comes into this game averaging 27.7 points per game away from home this season and they have managed to get that done on 385.7 total yards of offense per game and in those games they also managed to average 5.5 yards per play which is not too bad. Rice's defense has been horrendous all season and the Broncos could easily have one of their best offensive showings of the season as they go up against a defense that has allowed a whopping 41.5 points per game this season when playing away from home and that have allowed an even more pathetic 480.8 total yards of offense per game away from home this season on 7.0 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Western Michigan has struggled on the road all season long as they average only 76.2 rushing yards per away game and average 3.2 yards per carry in those games. Well let me introdue you to RB Brandon West who is not only going to pass the 1000 yard rushing mark in this game but he should rush for 200+ yards against a Rice defense that has allowed away opponents to rush for 208.5 rushing yards per game on 5.5 yards per carry and West is the kind of guy who is going to run all over this defense. The running game should be enough to put some huge points up on the board as this is one of the worst run defenses they will have seen all season. In the air, Western Michigan has completed 64.2% of their passes away from home for 6.8 yards per pass attempt. There are no real deep ball threats on this receiving corps which makes it difficult to score quick points but the Rice secondary is just as atrocious as the run defense and they have allowed their road opponents to complete 61.3% of their passes this season for 8.8 yards per pass attempt which is why I am led to believe the Broncos are going to have some serious success passing the ball both short and deep. They are going to have all the protection in the world in this one as their QB's have been sacked only 7 times in six away games this season and that has resulted in only 5 interceptions thrown by the QB's who have been top notch. Rice does bring a little bit of pressure as they have 9 sacks in six away games this season but that is not enough to throw this Western Michigan team off balance and I don't think they will have any success trying to stop or pressure the passing game. The Broncos have had a few problems holding onto the football when playing away from home as they have lost six fumbles in six games on the road this season but Rice is one of the worst tackling teams in the Country by far and they have managed to recover only 3 fumbles in six away games this season so don't count on the Owls to come up with any fumbles or that many turnovers for that matter. My gut feeling is that Rice might jump out to a huge lead in this game and their defense will probably sit back and think they have the win in the bag but anyone who has watched or followed college football this season knows that this defense a horrible second half defense as they have allowed 24.8 points per second half away from home this season in their six away games which is just disgusting. It also leaves the door wide open for a comeback should the Broncos offense come out of the gates asleep in this game. Western Michigan's offense is nothing like it was in years past but it doesn't mattter you who are when you play against Rice, if you have some guys who can make plays on offense they are going to shine and the Broncos will explode for points tonight while controlling the clock and putting the Owls to sleep.

The Rice Owls are not a team I would ever want to hear about again in terms of playing in a Bowl Game because I think they suck and I don't agree with the amount of Bowl Games just for this very reason. However that is another debate and for the time being I am here to talk about how the heck this team finished the season with a 9-3 SU record on the season. Not only did Rice win that many games and still miss a shot at playing for the Conference USA Championship but they also went 8-4 ATS this season which is probably why so many people are backing them in this game today. On that note, I have to point out that Rice was 5-1 ATS this season when playing in Rice stadium and although that is just down the street and not too far from this location at Reliant Stadium, you cannot hide from the fact that this team went 3-3 ATS when playing away from Rice Stadium and that should make a difference here regardless of fan support. The Owls won their last six games of the regular season to get to this Bowl Game and as impressive as that is only two of those six wins came against opponents who made it to the Bowl Season. When playing away from Rice Stadium this season (six games to be exact) Rice allowed less than 35 points only once and that was against a Tulane team that is coming nowhere the Bowl Games and that would only score that many points against this team. What I'm trying to say is that backing a team like this with the rest of the public when they allow at least 35-40 points in each game away from home is a huge risk. Rice comes into this game averaging 32.0 points per game away from home this season and they have managed to get that done on 424.8 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play in those games which is impressive and it shows they can score but can they keep up with the Broncos in this one? Western Michigan has allowed 31.5 points per game on the road this season and have allowed 405.3 total yards of offense per game on 5.8 yards per play in those games...but their defense is nowhere near as bad as Rice's defense which is why I think they have a chance. On the ground, Rice doesn't run the way they used to run as they moved to a spread offense a few seasons ago and now they average only 122.8 rushing yards per away game this season on 3.8 yards per carry in those games. Western Michigan has a decent run defense as they have allowed only 151.3 rushing yards per away game this season and allowed only 3.9 yards per carry in those games but something tells me Rice is not going to do much running in this game once they go down so the Broncos will definitely know what to expect and that's a lot of passing. In the air, Rice has completed 63.0% of their passes this season away from home and in those games have averaged 7.4 yards per pass attempt. WR Jarett Dillard is a serious deep threat and is one of the best receivers in the NCAA right now (heading to the NFL for sure). Now I know for a fact that Western Michigan, who have allowed opposing QBs to complete 59.7% of their passes on the road this season for 8.2 yards per pass attempt, have worked big time on their coverage packages in this game because they would rather Rice run all over them then pass for touchdown after touchdown after touchdown. We all know this is going to be a shootout so the least the Broncos defense can do is try to shut things down through the air and for the Owls to run all over them, something they cannot do...believe me. If the Broncos can bring some pressure like they have at times this season with their 9 sacks in six away games, they are going to have success getting to the Rice QB as the offensive line for this team has allowed 13 sacks in only six away games this season and that has been a huge problem for everyone involved despite the amount of points they score per game. Western Michigan has not made that many big plays in the secondary this season as they have only 5 interceptions on the road but they are due to make something happen and with the way Rice plays, they try to do a little bit too much when they get down and that could cost them here. Like I mentioned before, the Broncos biggest problem away from home has been the lack of turnovers they have been able to force as they have recovered only 2 fumbles in six away games and are going to have to be bang on with their tackles in this game tonight. I mentioned this earlier as well, Rice is probably going to run out to a big lead in this game as they average 17.3 points per first half this season away from home and that coincides with the time Western Michigan's defense allows a lot of points in away games this season. There is no reason to panic because the Rice defense is going to do its fair share to keep Western Michigan in this game and at some point when the Broncos do retake the lead they are going to milk the clock with some long first down runs by West. The Owls had a good season but I don't like them in an all out shootout where they don't have the running game to bail them out of some deep doo doo situations. I am going against the hometown boys in this game.

So assuming that Maryland wins the first game today and the public gets their money in that one, do you really think Vegas is going to give you a gift here and let you win with Rice? I mean more than 70% of the public is on a team that is playing a virtual home game here in the Texas Bowl but how can so many people be on the same team in what should be a shootout game? I don't really get it but that's fine with me, public squares never win in the end. As much as everyone wants to call this home for Rice and as much as this will feel like home for them tonight, this is still a game away from Rice Stadium and unless something drastic happened overnight, this team is not going to get any better on the defensive side of things. Western Michigan is used to this underdog role and that could play a huge part in the outcome of this game as they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs of 0.5 to 3.0 points in those games. As much as you think Rice is playing a virtual home game tonight, please understand that they are 5-1 ATS at home this season but that is on FIELD TURF and this game tonight is being played on natural grass. This matters because the last time I checked Rice had covered only 4 of their last 13 games played on grass and they are only 5-16 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. I am once again going with the underdog based on the altered POWER RATINGS!

Sagarin Altered Line: Western Michigan -1.59

Trend of the Game: Rice is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.


Western Michigan 33, Rice 32





:toast:





I don't have time for the next game and a writeup but I will post the pick here anyways in a few minutes. Keep those power ratings in business!!!
 
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Not at all Race, line movement doesn't do much for me. GL tonight and I am going to continue with these ratings, they are on fire. GO TERPS, BRONCOS AND COWBOYS!
 

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L5Y, USC is 4-0 vs SEC, outscoring them 167-48!!!
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this may sound like a dumb question considering the stats of this system...but for the OSU game, does it matter that the public is riding the cowboys fairly heavily??
 

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this may sound like a dumb question considering the stats of this system...but for the OSU game, does it matter that the public is riding the cowboys fairly heavily??


the public has been getting hammered night in and night out. Now that the good teams are playing, expect that to change.
 

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L5Y, USC is 4-0 vs SEC, outscoring them 167-48!!!
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the public has been getting hammered night in and night out. Now that the good teams are playing, expect that to change.

Fair enough my man. :toast: The stats on this system alone speaks for itself.
 

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Another win for the altered power ratings and although I don't know if the last two games will be winners, this has been a great system and I will continue riding it in all sports as it has worked. Lets cash this tonight.


12-3 ATS using these power ratings



Listed Below are the games already played with what the line should have been according to these ratings. Highlighted are wins and losses so far.


Dec. 20...Wake Forest -3 (
Sagarin Altered line Wake Forest -3.21)
Dec. 20...Colorado State +2 (
Sagarin Altered line Colorado State -0.43)
Dec. 20...South Florida -10.5 (
Sagarin Altered line South Florida -12.09)
Dec. 20...BYU +3 (
Sagarin Altered line BYU -11.55)
Dec. 21...Southern Miss +4.5 (
Sagarin Altered line Troy -3.53)
Dec. 23...Boise State +3.5 (
Sagarin Altered line Boise State -0.58)
Dec. 24...Hawaii +2.5 (
Sagarin Altered line Notre Dame -0.37)
Dec. 26...Central Michigan -7 (
Sagarin Altered line Central Michigan -8.22)
Dec. 27...North Carolina +2.5 (
Sagarin Altered line North Carolina -3.98)
Dec. 27...Florida State -7 (
Sagarin Altered line Florida State -10.11)
Dec. 27...Miami Florida +10 (
Sagarin Altered line Miami -3.06)
Dec. 28...Louisiana Tech -2.5 (
Sagarin Altered line Louisiana Tech -3.61)
Dec. 29...NC State +6.5
(Sagarin Altered line NC State -1.81)
Dec. 29...Northwestern +12 (Sagarin Altered line Missouri -3.72)
Dec. 30...Maryland +3 (Sagarin Altered line Maryland -6.15)


7 straight ATS wins





:toast:
 

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I really like MD in this match up, but the concerns I have are these:

Nevada seems to want this more!
Nevada has more experience on the smurf turf!
Current ACC sweep....someone has to fall, right?

That said, my lean was to MD, but now a toss up!

Thoughts?


I disagree with this. The ACC is now 6-0 ATS this Bowl Season and they were already the best Conference in college football this season heading into the post-season. Keep pounding away on the bad lines.
 

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System looks good! No offense, but I hope Rice wins. I got them. They're doing well so far. Oklahoma St. is kicking butt, too. 2-1 for the day is good, right? :p What picks are there for tomorrow?
 

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