MistaFlava's CFB Monday ****BOWL POWER SELECTIONS*** (Power Ratings System 9-3 ATS)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CFB Bowl Record: 4-7 ATS (-33.00 Units)

Alright so I am off to a pretty bad start on the college bowl season but have come up with some interesting information that could help us all out in the long run here.

When using Sagarin Power Ratings and combining with gross BCS standard ratings, I have noticed that the results have been pretty damn accurate.

9-3 ATS using these power rating

Listed Below are the games already played with what the line should have been according to these ratings. Highlighted are wins and losses so far.

Dec. 20...Wake Forest -3.21 (actual line Wake Forest -3)
Dec. 20...Colorado State -0.43 (actual line Fresno State -2)
Dec. 20...Memphis -12.09 (actual line Memphis -10.5)
Dec. 20...BYU -11.55 (actual line Arizona -3)
Dec. 21...Troy -3.53 (actual line Troy -4.5)
Dec. 23...Boise State -0.58 (actual line TCU -3.5)
Dec. 24...Notre Dame -0.37 (actual line Notre Dame -2.5)
Dec. 26...Central Michigan -8.22 (actual line Central Michigan -7)
Dec. 27...North Carolina -3.98 (actual line West Virginia -2.5)
Dec. 27...Florida State -10.11 (actual line Florida State -7)
Dec. 27...Miami Florida -3.06 (actual line California -10)
Dec. 28...Louisiana Tech -3.61 (actual line Louisiana Tech -2.5)


I have decided to use these Power Ratings for the remainder of the Bowl Season because they were on fire last season and they seem to really be on the ball when it comes to the lines. Miami was supposed to be favored and they covered the spread easily and a bunch of other underdogs should have been favored in these games but were dogs instead. Let's see where this leads.

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Monday, December 29


PAPAJOHN'S BOWL

View attachment 6101


View attachment 6100 NC State Wolfpack +6.5 (25 Units) View attachment 6102

The NC State Wolfpack just barely squeaked into the post-season by winning their last four games of the regular season. That means these guys were a pathetic 2-6 SU heading into the month of November but they went perfect in that month and beat Duke by 10 points, they beat Wake Forest by 4 points (the Deacons won their Bowl Game), they beat North Carolina by 31 points (another Bowl Game winner this Bowl season) and they beat Miami by 10 points in their regular season finale (Miami almost beat Cal in their Bowl Game). So they beat 3 bowl bound teams that went 3-0 ATS in their respective Bowl Games and I would say the Wolfpack are one of the hottest teams in College Football heading into this post-season with their dramatic wins to get them in. They sure as heck have all the momentum in the world coming into this game and the underdog status is a little bit too much if you ask me. NC State was a great 9-2 ATS this season which means they kept some games close. Apart from their 34-0 season opening loss to South Carolina, the Woldpack have covered all but one of their games since and again I have to say they are one of the best ATS teams in the Nation this past regular season. Not only did these guys beat East Carolina this season but they kept things close with Florida State, they almost beat Boston College and they just missed a late chance to beat Maryland. North Carolina State comes into this game averaging 20.2 points per away game this season and they have managed to do that on only 324.2 total yards of offense per game. So yeah their offense isn't all that good but they have still found a way to win games. Rutgers defense has allowed 22.0 points per away game this season and in those games they have allowed a whopping 384.0 total yards of offense and allowed 5.8 yards per play which means the Wolfpack should have a shot at some points. On the ground, the Wolfpack have done a good job movnig the ball and keeping the ball out of the opponents offensive hands as they have rushed for 147.2 rushing yards per away game this season on 3.7 yards per carry. Rutgers has been good against the run but they have not been great as they have allowed 151.6 rushing yards per away game this season and have allowed 3.9 yards per carry in those games. The Wolfpack haev some good young players who can really move on the ground and I think they have some success in this game. In the air, the Wolfpack QB's have completed only 51.9% of their passes away from home this season for 6.8 yards per pass attempt in those games. I understand that those numbers are not impressive but I think these guys are going to catch a break in this one as Rutgers defense has allowed their road opponents to complete a whopping 67.6% of their passes this season for 8.4 yards per pass attempt which should allow the young QB's to move the ball at will. WR Owen Spencer is a big time deep threat and he will definitely be in the mix for some huge plays in this game. The offensive line has done a decent job allowing only 10 sacks in their five road games this season but they will have to be ready for Rutgers pass rush tonight as the Scarlet Knights have 12 sacks in their five away games this season. What turns me off about this Rutgers defense is that they have been way too soft away from home, with only 4 interceptions in those road games and only 4 recovered fumbles. NC State has been very good with the ball despite the issues at the QB position as they have thrown only 4 interceptions away from home this season and have lost only 3 fumbles in those very same games. Rutgers has been hurt early in road games this season as they have allowed 13.4 points per first half in those games. NC State has actually been a decent first half team on the road this season averaging 11.4 points per first half this season and I expect them to have the lead by halftime. This won't be an easy game for the Wolfpack offense and it's very possible that they don't score more than 20 points but that is not reason to panic because their offense has done enough to keep the chains moving with some consistency which should allow their defense to make some plays. Rutgers defense does not make many big plays away from home and NC State will be on the better of those big plays. I like the Wolfpack here...a lot!

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are going to have a lot of backers on their side tonight and why the heck not with the way they have played as of late? This is a team that finished the regular season with a 7-5 SU record and to make things even more impressive, they did that after one of the worst starts to the season in school history. Not to mention that Rutgers did go a very decent 7-4 ATS this season but that was all after their horrendous start. For those of you who didn't know, Rutgers kicked off their 2008 campaign with a crushing 24-7 home loss to Fresno State as a -3.5 point favorite. They followed that up with a 44-12 home loss to North Carolina as a -5.5 point favorite and they followed that up with a pathetic 23-21 loss to Navy once again at home putting them at 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS to start the season. The Scarlet Knights got the ship righted a week later against Morgan State with a much needed 38-0 win in a non-lined game. Even with that win some people doubted this team could recover from their bad start but they eventually got things going but not before losing two more games against West Virginia and Cincinnati (which is not so bad). So they were 1-5 SU on the season but then won their last six games to make the post-season. However only three of those wins were against bowl-bound teams and I don't know that Rutgers really deserves to be favored by this much in this game. The Scarlet Knights come into the game averaging 30.2 points per away game this season which is pretty damn good but they averaged only 344.8 total yards of offense per game on 5.8 yards per play in those games which is a good indication that the defense has done more for the offense than the offense has done for itself. NC State is not the best defensive team in the country but they have allowed only 23.0 points per away game this season and have allowed only 348.0 total yards of offense per game in those games and have allowed only 5.5 yards per play. That should be enough to slow down this surging Rutgers offense to some degree. On the ground, Rutgers has not found a way to replace the departed RB Ray Rice and he will be dearly missed (so will his Bowl Game experience) in this game as the Scarlet Knights have rushed for only 107.6 rushing yards per game on the road this season for only 3.5 yards per carry. I do expect them to have a bit more success than usual if they wish to stick to the running game because NC State has allowed road opponents to rush for 138.0 rushing yards per game this season on 4.3 yards per carry. In the air, things will always be shaky as long as QB Mike Teel is around and that should be no different in this game. Teel has completed 57.3% of his passes on the road this season for 8.3 yards per pass attempt in those games so yes he does have big playmaking abilities but at the same time he is careless with a lot of his throws and when under pressure he tends to make bad decisions. On the road this season, NC State has allowed their opponents to complete 62.6% of their passes for 6.8 yards per pass attempt but this defense sure as heck knows how to make big plays and the only reason they allow big yardage sometimes is because they take so many risks. Rutgers offensive line has allowed 8 sacks in five road games this season so Teel is going to have some time. NC State's pass rush has 9 sacks in five road games this season and they have been able to provided enough pressure up front to make opposing QB's uncomfortable in the pocket which is what will happen here today. If Teels is pressured at all he is going to make some bad throws and that should result in some INT's from this secondary. The DB's on this Wolfpack team have been outstanding and they have come up with 8 interceptions in only five road games this season so expect these guys to be on the prowl here today. You have to appreciate the fact that Rutgers has not had too many problems holding onto the ball this season as they have lost only 1 fumble in all five road games this season but that could change as NC State has aggressive tacklers who have recovered 5 fumbles in 5 road games this season. Much like NC State's offense, Rutgers has scored a lot of points in the first half of away games this season averaging 15.8 points per first half on the road this season so there is no reason to panic if the Wolpack get down early. I think Rutgers is going to have little or no success at all running the ball here which will force them to throw a lot more than they want to against this secondary that loves to take chances and that loves to come up with big plays. Sure Rutgers has played some good football but their luck is about to run out against a team that is much better than anyone really knows.

The world is going to be on Rutgers in this game and why the heck not after the way they finished their season and with the way they played in recent weeks. However, people forget all took quickly that the ACC Conference is the best Conference in College Football this season while the Big East Conference is ranked #4 in terms of conferences in college football. You also have to realize that NC State had the #3 toughest schedule in the Nation this past season while Rutgers had things easy and got to play the #67 toughest schedule in the Country this season. So as well as Rutgers has played, this line is way too high and I think the wrong team is favored based on the Sagarin Altered Ratings. Like I said before, the ACC Conference is the best conference in all of college football this season so it wouldn't surprise me if all their teams won and covered their respective Bowl Games. Not only is NC State 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall but they are also 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog and coach O'Brien sure as heck knows what he is doing with these kids in a Bowl Game. NC State has not had much success against the Big East Conference going 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus teams from that conference but I think O'Brien and his boys turn things around here. Rutgers has been very good in non-conference games and they, much like NC State, have been red hot on the ATS covering front but the bottom line is that they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a favorites of 3.5 to 10 points. I think the underdog bites hard in this game.

Sagarin Alternate Power Rating: NC State -1.81 (actual line Rutgers -6.5)

Trend of the Game: NC State is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as underdogs.


NC State 21, Rutgers 19





:toast:




I will be back to post the POWER RATINGS SELECTION for tonight's game.
​

 

[Furmanski]

Nevermind...you fixed it already.


BOL Mistaflava.

 

[ballistik]

what about the wagerline guy?

 

[Duce15]

There is no way that we are both going to win this game. I not usually on the same side as you. I guess good luck to us........teel is proly gonna light us up

 

[LookingForHotPick]

good luck bro!!!

 

[MistaFlava]

Here is the night play guys, these POWER RATINGS are on fire:

Monday, December 29


ALAMO BOWL

View attachment 6103


View attachment 6105 Northwestern Wildcats +12 (10 Units) View attachment 6104

The Northwestern Wildcats are a much better football team than they get credit for and that is quite evident by the amount of people on Missouri in this game. However how can you hate on the #20 ranked Wildcats when they went 9-3 SU this season and covered the spread in 6 of their 11 lined games this season. I know they play in one of the most overrated BCS Conferences around and that will be a huge factor in some Bowl Games down the line but the Wildcats are happy to be here and my guess is they are going up against a Missouri team that has no interest in this Bowl Game whatsoever. How can you not be impressed with the way Northwestern closed out their season? After losing a very close road game to Indiana, the Wildcats bounced back and ruined Minnesota's chances at a perfect season with a 24-17 road win over the Gophers. Then came the blowout loss to the BCS Bound Ohio State Buckeyes but once again the Wildcats made a perfect recovery and finished their regular season with two straight up wins as underdogs over Michigan (in Ann Arbor) and over Illinois in their final home game of the season. RB Tyrell Sutton is a big question mark for this game and that could severely determine or affect the outcome of this game if he does end up playing (he is coming off wrist surgery but something tells me he is going to play). Having said that, Sutton did not have the kind of season he has had in the past and it's not like this team cannot win without him as they have a very mobile QB who can make just as many plays on his feet. Northwestern comes into this game averaging 19.3 points per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done on 296.7 total yards of offense and 4.4 yards per play. That's horrendous. Having said that, Northwestern's offense is not what got them 9 wins this season and they have been able to come up with big plays when called upon so I'm not concerned. The reason I'm not concerned is because Missouri's defense is horrendous and they have allowed 40.7 points per game in their last three games and have allowed a crazy 506.3 total yards of offense per game in those games on 6.0 yards per play which is a disaster no matter who they are playing against. This defense has completely given up on the season it seems. On the ground, Northwestern has been quite lost without Sutton and it has shown in their last three games as they have rushed for only 95.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on only 2.5 yards per carry in those games. Having said that, if Sutton comes back for this game he is going to rush for 150+ yards against a Missouri defense that has allowed 141.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.3 yards per carry which is just enough for a guy like Sutton to just run loose on a team. In the air, QB Mike Kafka has been outstanding in the last three games with both his performances on the ground and in the air. Kafka has completed 64.0% of his passes the last three games for 6.8 yards per pass attempt in those games despite being under all kinds of pressure and making quite a few mistakes. Missouri's secondary has been absolutely torched in their last three games as they have allowed opposing QB's to complete 69.5% of their passes in those games for 7.1 yards per pass attempt. That leaves the door wide open for Northwestern to move the ball through the air with ease even though they do not have a single deep pass threat wide receiver on their team. I don't like the fact that Kafka has been sacked 7 times in Northwestern's last three games because that's a lot of pressure in a short period of time, but Missouri's pass rush has gone dead over the last three games as they have managed to record only 2 sacks in that short period of time. As long as Kafka can have Sutton back for this game he won't have to worry about forcing the throws that have been the reason for his 4 interceptions in the last three games. I highly recommend keeping the passing game on a short level anyways because the Tigers secondary takes a lot of chances, they play a lot of underneath coverage and they have grabbed 4 interceptions in their last three games now. Northwestern is not the type of team to self implode so they should be fine even if they go down early in this game as they have lost only 2 fumbles in their last three games and have taken only 3.7 penalties per game which is important when it comes to composure in games that have the potential of getting out of hand. On that not, Missouri has lacked any type of aggressiveness on defense as they have recovered 0 fumbles in their last three games which really doesn't help in a game where turnovers will be huge. The Tigers have allowed 21.3 points per first half in their last three games and if they come out with the same attitude as they did in those games, they are going to get burned for some big time points in this game. With Sutton in the lineup Northwestern should be able to run some screen passes for huge yardage all game long and should Sutton miss out on this game, I think Kafka is going to make enough plays downfield to keep this game close, like he has done for the most part of the season. Northwestern has a big time chance of winning this game.

The Missouri Tigers are cooked, they are done and like I have already mentioned many times now, I don't think they have any interest in this game. You could look at it that way or you could assume they are going to be angry at the way their season finished and want to take it out on someone, that someone being the Northwestern Wildcats. So yes this game is heading one of those two directions and for us Northwestern backers we can only hope Missouri's has little or no interest in this game. I say it may go that way because having won their Division in the Big 12, you would think Missouri would at least be playing in a January 1 Bowl Game or something a little better than just the Alamo Bowl. We all know what happened in the Big 12 Conference Championship Game as the Tigers got crushed by the Sooners to the tune of 62-21. Prior to that though, Missouri had looked horrendous for quite some time. I mean their season took a turn for the bad when they got smoked by Oklahoma State on October 11 (well the game was close but they deserved to lose). They followed that up the next week with a blowout loss at the hands of the Texas Longhorns. Then came four wins in a row against Colorado, Baylor, Kansas State and Iowa State but someone please tell me how many of those teams are playing in Bowl Games right now? The answer would be none and to make things worse, Missouri went only 2-2 ATS in those games. Their regular season finale was a three point home loss to Kansas that ultimately sealed their fate in terms of playing in a better Bowl Game. So they have only themselves to blame for this mess and their strength of schedule has been nothing short of pathetic anyways. Missouri comes into this game averaging a whopping 36.7 points per game in their last three games which they have done by also averaging 443.0 total yards of offense per game and averaging 6.5 yards per play in those games. So against most teams this would be considered a huge threat and unless you can score as many as them you are not going to keep up. Well yeah Northwestern's offense sucks and would have a hard time keeping up with the Tigers on almost any given day but the Wildcats defense has come a long way and they have allowed only 23.0 points per game in their last three games. In those games they have allowed their opponents to average 346.7 total yards of offense per game and have allowed 4.7 yards per play in those games. So we are halfway there with these guys. On the ground, Missouri should have success running the ball should they choose to avoid stuborness and stick to the running attack. I say that because they have averaged 139.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have managed to do that on 5.3 yards per carry but the problem is they don't run the ball enough and they won't do enough on the ground to hurt the Wildcats who have allowed 182.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.2 yards per carry in those games (Juice Williams of Illinois torched these guys but they still found a way to win). When you have QB Chase Daniels leading your team you probably don't want to run the ball much which is once again why I think Missouri is making a big mistake if they don't have more than 30 carries in this game. In the air, Daniels has completed 67.5% of his passes the last three games for 7.2 yards per pass attempt in those games which means he liked to pass a lot and he likes to take a lot of shots downfield which is a risk/reward type of thing. Northwestern's secondary is badass and they have allowed their last three opponent QB's to complete only 46.1% of their passes the last three games and have allowed those opponents to average only 5.5 yards per pass attempt in those games. Daniel has not seen all that much pressure this season and has been sacked only 5 times in the last three games but things could change this time around as the Wildcats love to bring pressure packages and despite playing against a few mobile QB's in their last three games, they have managed to record 7 sacks in those games which could be huge here. Daniel has shown that when the pressure comes he is going to make mistakes as he has thrown 5 interceptions in his last three games and if he continues to feel that pressure he is going to reward this Northwestern secondary with some interceptions, even though they have only 2 in their last three games. Missouri much like Northwestern have shown signs of discpline throughout the season and despite their recent losses they have still taken only 3.7 penalties per game in their last three games. They have lost three fumbles in their last three games and are going up against a Northwestern team that does not force many turnovers but that are very good at holding opponents in the RedZone and if this defense can do that today there is no reason why they can't keep the uninterested Tigers off the board on several dangerous drives. Missouri is a very dangerous team that can score in bunches. A lot of people like them to win by blowout in this game tonight but the bottom line is that despite such a powerful offense, these guys have not killed teams this season like they did last season and there is a misperception to which team is being sent out there on the field. I think the Tigers don't care much about this game and I think Northwestern keeps this close.

I know it's tempting to pound away on a Missouri team that averages 43.2 points per game this season and I know the obvious pick here is probably the Tigers but Bowl Games are not all about the obvious choice. The Tigers may very well win this game but covering the spread is another story and I think the Wildcats can keep this game close. The spread is just way too high. This is not the Bowl Game Missouri thought they would be playing in (they had a New Years Day bowl game in mind) so the motivation might not be so high in this game. ONLY 3 OF MISSOURI'S 9 WINS THIS SEASON CAME AGAINST TEAMS PLAYING IN THE POST-SEASON. No matter what anyone says this Missouri teams is not the same team we saw win games by large blowouts last season. This is only a shell of that team despite the all-star receivers and QB. Northwestern does not have ATS stats on their side in this game as they have not done well as underdogs in the past and they have not done well in non-conference games in recent years but they are coming off one of their best seasons in recent years and I think they have something special going on here and a win here would top that off. Missouri on the other hand have covered 13 of their last 16 non-conference games so yes they are an enticing wager and all but in the end they are still the team that has been completely trashed defensively the last few games and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. They might win this game but Northwestern is going to make this a dogfight and the spread is just way too high for the 2008 version of this team. DOGS TO THE BANK!

Sagarin Alternate Power Rating: Missouri -3.72 (actual line Missouri -12)

Trend of the Game: Missouri is 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.


Northwestern 39, Missouri 36





:toast:




These POWER RATINGS are on fire, I will keep posting them win or lose.
​

 

[MistaFlava]

NC State with another win for the system, it was close but they led most of the game and ended up covering the spread (only because Evans played in this game if you ask me). Onto the next...


10-3 ATS using these power ratings

Listed Below are the games already played with what the line should have been according to these ratings. Highlighted are wins and losses so far.

Dec. 20...Wake Forest -3.21 (actual line Wake Forest -3)
Dec. 20...Colorado State -0.43 (actual line Fresno State -2)
Dec. 20...Memphis -12.09 (actual line Memphis -10.5)
Dec. 20...BYU -11.55 (actual line Arizona -3)
Dec. 21...Troy -3.53 (actual line Troy -4.5)
Dec. 23...Boise State -0.58 (actual line TCU -3.5)
Dec. 24...Notre Dame -0.37 (actual line Notre Dame -2.5)
Dec. 26...Central Michigan -8.22 (actual line Central Michigan -7)
Dec. 27...North Carolina -3.98 (actual line West Virginia -2.5)
Dec. 27...Florida State -10.11 (actual line Florida State -7)
Dec. 27...Miami Florida -3.06 (actual line California -10)
Dec. 28...Louisiana Tech -3.61 (actual line Louisiana Tech -2.5)
Dec. 29...NC State -1.81 (actual line Rutgers -6.5)



That's five in a row for the power ratings guys, looking good. GL tonight and see you all tomorrow.

 

[YankeesRule]

Well atleast you got mizz over . Sweet. But no way mizz loses this game. Bol to you but mizz by 21 or more. Glad you are playing n western small

 

[thekid78]

I tried using the sagarin ratings as an extra tool for capping for a couple weeks during the regular season. It was pretty ineffective, but best of luck to you.

 

[Duce15]

NOTRE DAME should be one of the green teams

 

[MistaFlava]

Another huge win on Northwestern last night. Let me re-chart this bitch so you guys understand it a bit better. Listed was the line and the play according to the ratings and in brackets is what the line was predicted as being and what it should have been...helping determine the play on the night.


11-3 ATS using these power ratings


Listed Below are the games already played with what the line should have been according to these ratings. Highlighted are wins and losses so far.


Dec. 20...Wake Forest -3 (Sagarin Altered line Wake Forest -3.21)
Dec. 20...Colorado State +2 (Sagarin Altered line Colorado State -0.43)
Dec. 20...Memphis -10.5 (Sagarin Altered line Memphis -12.09)
Dec. 20...BYU +3 (Sagarin Altered line BYU -11.55)
Dec. 21...Southern Miss +4.5 (Sagarin Altered line Troy -3.53)
Dec. 23...Boise State +3.5 (Sagarin Altered line Boise State -0.58)
Dec. 24...Hawaii +2.5 (Sagarin Altered line Notre Dame -0.37)
Dec. 26...Central Michigan -7 (Sagarin Altered line Central Michigan -8.22)
Dec. 27...North Carolina +2.5 (Sagarin Altered line North Carolina -3.98)
Dec. 27...Florida State -7 (Sagarin Altered line Florida State -10.11)
Dec. 27...Miami Florida +10 (Sagarin Altered line Miami -3.06)
Dec. 28...Louisiana Tech -2.5 (Sagarin Altered line Louisiana Tech -3.61)
Dec. 29...NC State +6.5 (Sagarin Altered line NC State -1.81)
Dec. 29...Northwestern +12 (Sagarin Altered line Missouri -3.72)
That's six in a row for the power ratings guys, looking good. Hope some of you got on these at the right time. Off to work, will post later in a new thread.





:toast:

 

[MistaFlava]

I tried using the sagarin ratings as an extra tool for capping for a couple weeks during the regular season. It was pretty ineffective, but best of luck to you.

It's all about using his ratings and altering them to fit into your capping which is what im doing here. Straight up his numbers never work. But his balances and values are great.

 

[TeeItUp22]

Just to correct you Mista Memphis lost 42-14. Great Job lately. Keep it up.

 

[Prophet]

Looking forward to todays plays