MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CFB Bowl Record: 11-14 ATS (+1.00 Units)
What can I say? Things are going well for me the last few days. I won my PLAY OF THE YEAR in college football on Ohio State +8 and I went 3-1 ATS this past weekend in the NFL Playoffs. Until yesterday's PLAY OF THE YEAR I had not been hitting any of my big plays in college football so that was a nice change for once. You all know how my regular season went (not well) and it looked like I'm heading the same way with the Bowl games but that play last night really saved my ass and I'm glad I was able to pull through with the Buckeyes. Should I juss stop now? Maybe but that's not my style. We have two Bowl Games left, it has been my yearly tradition to bet on all Bowl Games (I missed a few this time around) and I think I can fniish 2-0 ATS. You can hate all you want like the clowns that infiltrated my thread yesterday but it honestly doesn't bother me. I won't respond 99% of the time and I'll 100% shove down your throat after I win. Simple as that. Two more!!!
1 Unit = $100
What you have to keep in mind about me is that the units I post is only meant to indicate how much I really like a play. It does not necessarily mean that I bet that much money on the game because I do sometimes put a lot more or a lot less on a game. So take it as you wish, only reason I post units is to keep things legit around here. Hope you all had a good New Year's, all the best today, let's make some of that cash back!
You can tail, fade or simply follow. No matter what I do what I can to help and that's all that really matters.
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What can I say? Things are going well for me the last few days. I won my PLAY OF THE YEAR in college football on Ohio State +8 and I went 3-1 ATS this past weekend in the NFL Playoffs. Until yesterday's PLAY OF THE YEAR I had not been hitting any of my big plays in college football so that was a nice change for once. You all know how my regular season went (not well) and it looked like I'm heading the same way with the Bowl games but that play last night really saved my ass and I'm glad I was able to pull through with the Buckeyes. Should I juss stop now? Maybe but that's not my style. We have two Bowl Games left, it has been my yearly tradition to bet on all Bowl Games (I missed a few this time around) and I think I can fniish 2-0 ATS. You can hate all you want like the clowns that infiltrated my thread yesterday but it honestly doesn't bother me. I won't respond 99% of the time and I'll 100% shove down your throat after I win. Simple as that. Two more!!!
1 Unit = $100
What you have to keep in mind about me is that the units I post is only meant to indicate how much I really like a play. It does not necessarily mean that I bet that much money on the game because I do sometimes put a lot more or a lot less on a game. So take it as you wish, only reason I post units is to keep things legit around here. Hope you all had a good New Year's, all the best today, let's make some of that cash back!
You can tail, fade or simply follow. No matter what I do what I can to help and that's all that really matters.
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Tuesday, January 6
GMAC BOWL
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View attachment 6204 Tulsa Golden Hurricane -3 (25 Units) View attachment 6203
GMAC BOWL
View attachment 6202
View attachment 6204 Tulsa Golden Hurricane -3 (25 Units) View attachment 6203
The Ball State Cardinals are one of the best ATS cashing teams over the span of the last two seasons and that alone is reason to back them in a football game like this. If you check all the trends for this game you will notice that Ball State has a huge advantage over Tulsa and that according to those trends this game is designed for the Cardinals to win and cover. WELL NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND. I have to first and foremost let you all know that THE BEST OFFENSE BALL STATE FACED AWAY FROM HOME THIS SEASON WAS CENTRAL MICHIGAN WHO ARE RANKED #23 OFFENSIVELY WITH THE #105 RANKED DEFENSE (31-24 win). Well just to let you know right now Tulsa has the #1 ranked offense in the Country and the #85 ranked defense in the Country so things should be significantly different. The Cardinals have not faced an offense that can keep up with their #11 ranked offense in the Country but they have finally met their match in this game and Tulsa is going to be a lot more than anything this team has faced all season. Let's see how many Bowl Bound teams this Cardinals team has faced this season. So you have Navy, who the beat 35-23 at home as -6.5 point favorites. You then have Central Michigan who the Cardinals beat 31-24 on the road as -6 points favorites and then you have the Buffalo Bulls who the Cardinals lost to in the MAC Conference Championship Game as -15 point favorites. You also have the Western Michigan Broncos who lost to Ball State 45-22 at home this season. What do all three of those teams have in common? All three of those teams lost their Bowl Games and failed to cover the spread in their Bowl Games (Navy lost to Wake Forest, Central Michigan lost to Florida Atlantic, Western Michigan lost to Rice and Buffalo lost to Connecticut). Despite being an impressive 5-1 ATS away from home this season, I just don't trust Ball State's weak schedule and although they are 12-1 SU on the season they have played against only 4 Bowl bound teams in 13 games which is a clear indication that they are overrated at this point in time. Ball State comes into this game averaging 33.3 points per game in their last three games and although that's good, it's not good enough to keep up with this Tulsa offense that is going to score on almost all their possessions. In those games the Cardinals managed to average 454.0 total yards of offense per game on 6.2 yards per play which is impressive but once again I really don't think it's going to be enough to get the job done. Tulsa's defense is ranked #85 in the Nation this season but they have played much better in their last three games and have allowed only 23.0 points per game in those games and have allowed only 315.7 total yards of offense per game against those three opponents on 5.3 yards per play in those games. Believe it or not, the Golden Hurrican know a thing or two about playing defense and the only reason their numbers in terms of yards allowed are so poor this season is because they have the #1 scoring offense in the Country and opposing teams get the ball back quite often in games. On the ground RB Miquale Lewis is stud and he has led this team to great things all season rushing for 1700+ yards and 22 touchdowns on the ground. The Cardinals average 187.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games and they have managed to get that done on 4.6 yards per carry in those games and some pretty big plays from the line of scrimmage. That doesn't concern me however because I expect Ball State to play from behind all game so runnign is not always going to be on their minds. Despite the fact that Tulsa has allowed their last three opponents to rush for 163.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games, this is not different than anything they have done all season and the Golden Hurricane know they have the offense to outscore opponents anyways. They have also allowed 4.6 yards per carry on the ground so the odds are Lewis is going to have a huge game but as long as they can make a few defensive stops by stopping the pass, their offense should take care of the rest. In the air, QB Nate Davis has been awesome this season and in his last three games he has completed 63.2% of his passes for a whopping 8.4 yards per pass attempt. Davis has 3-4 guys who are real big time deep threats on this Ball State team and all three have caught huge touchdown passes this season which has been a problem for opposing teams. Having said that, Tulsa's defense is a lot better than people think and they have allowed their last three opposing QB's to complete only 54.2% of their passes in the last three games and they have allowed only 6.2 yards per pass attempt. That means they have held opponents to short gains and have not been burned on deep routes which is exactly the type of defense you need against this Ball State passing game. Davis has been sacked only 4 times in his last three games and Tulsa has only 5 sacks in their last three games but even if they don't get that much pressure up front, I really think their secondary is due to make some big plays as they have 0 interceptions per game in their last three games and if Davis tries to do too much after being down a few scores, he is going to find himself forcing throws and giving the secondary some gifts. Ball State has coughed up the ball and lost 4 fumbles in their last three games and that is going to be a huge problem against these Tulsa DB's and LB's who love to go after the ball and who have recovered three fumbles in their last three games. We all know the key to this game is going to be to score points and to match the other teams touchdowns with more touchdowns. I don't know how easily Ball State can do that if they turn over the ball because my gut feeling is that Tulsa is going to score on almost every drive and they are going to look good doing it. Ball State might take the lead and they might run all over Tulsa but one thing is for sure, they cannot underestimate the Tulsa secondary because this is a talented bunch and they have not been given the credit they deserve in their last three games. Ball State has scored only 14.7 points per first half in their last three games and for me that's just not enough to get the job done against a Tulsa team that is surely going to score something like 24+ points in the first half. Ball State has been cash money for two seasons now but we saw some flaws against Buffalo and we are going to see even more flaws in this game as the offense and the defense are going to take some hits and the Cardinals will lose for the second time this year and second time in a row. CARDINALS = NO CHANCE.
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane were just as shocked as most handicappers when they lost the CUSA Conference Championship Game agaist East Carolina but I was all over the Pirates and the loss did not surprise me despite the Hurricane being a -12.5 point favorite. There is no chance in hell they come out looking flat in this game and there is no chance in the world the #54 ranked defense of Ball State is going to stop these guys from avenging that loss. This is not like Ball State losing the MAC Conference Championship Game because the Cardinals were playing in that game for the first time ever, nerves got the best of them and now that they have lost a game, they will probably revert back to their old habits from the losing days. Tulsa on the other hand has been the best team in this Conference for a few years now and they are not used to losing the way Ball State would be used to losing games. That makes all the difference in the world because they are that much hungrier to recover from that loss in the championship game. I was laughing at Ball State for not facing any Bowl Bound teams this season but Tulsa has not exactly done any better than that. They did however face a few Bowl bound teams and they did quite well against them. The Golden Hurricane were -16.5 point favorites over Rice earlier this season and won that game 63-28. They were -3.5 point favorites over Houston on the road but lost that game 70-30 in a complete shootout. They then faced East Carolina as -12.5 in that CUSA Conference Championship Game and lost that by three points. So their pedigree and their strength of schedule is no better than Ball State's. Tulsa did however face the #41 ranked defense of New Mexico this season and they beat them 56-14. Tulsa also faced the #44 ranked defense of Central Florida and beat them 49-19. I am not concerned about the #54 ranked defense of Ball State. The Golden Hurricane did not really do all that well on the road away from home this season as they went 2-4 ATS in those games and lost all but one of their three games on opposing teams soil. This is a neutral site game that is being played in the neighbouring State of Alabama and the crowd is going to be pro Tulsa as they seek to avenge their bad loss in the Conference USA Championship Game. This is a very dangerous team that can shoot things out with just about anyone when they want to and I think Ball State is in a heap of trouble coming into this game tonight. Tulsa comes into this game averaging an NCAA best 47.4 points per game this season and in those games they have managed to also average 565.0 total yards of offense per game in those games on an incredible 7.3 yards per play. I think the Hurricane are going to have a feast tonight against a Ball State defense that has allowed 29.3 points per game in their last three games and a defense that has allowed 370.0 total yards of offense per game in their last three games on 5.4 yards per play. That sounds like good defense but their opponents have been horrendous and this is by far the best offense Ball State has seen all season and this is going to be some shocking stuff here. On the ground, Tulsa is just as good as Ball State as they average 254.8 rushing yards per game on the season and average 5.4 yards per carry in those games. RB Tarrion Adams is an Oklahoma transfer and huge part of this offense and the top four running backs on this team all average at least 5.8 yards per carry this season and they have combined for 22 rushing touchdowns which is equal to what MiQuale Lewis can do for the Cardinals. Ball State's run defense has actually been pretty good this season and in their last three games they have allowed only 117.7 rushing yards per game in those games on 3.8 yards per carry. The only thing is this team has not seen a passing attack like Tulsa's and once the Golden Hurricane can get an aerial attack going in this game, the running room is going to open up big time and Adams should have a field day with some huge gains rushing in this game. In the air, QB David Johnson has been amazing all season with his only really bad game coming in the CUSA Conference Championship Game where he threw 5 interceptions and still lost by only three points. Johnson has completed 64.8% of his passes this season for 3866 passing yards, 10.3 yards per pass attempt, 43 touchdown passes and 18 interceptions which is to be expected when you have to pass the ball that many times and throw it deep that many times. Safe enough to say that this offense loves big plays, they love to go deep and they take enough chances that when they convert those chances, they are going to blowout opponents. Ball State is in a heap of trouble in this game and I have said it many times. They have allowed their last three opponents to complete 60.0% of their passes and in those games have allowed those same opponents to complete 6.9 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. Much like the Tulsa defense, this Ball State does not allow any big plays in the passing attack and that is one of the reasons why I think this game is probably going to be a lot lower scoring than most people think. The Tulsa offense knows a thing or two about dealing with turnovers because as mentioned before, Johnson has thrown 18 interceptions this season and they have lost 9 fumbles this season in 13 games but other than that this is a very disciplined team that has taken only 4.6 penalties per game this season and this is all about quick starts because the team that leads early is probably going to run away with the game and never look back. On that note, Tulsa averages 25.1 points PER FIRST HALF THIS SEASON and that is not something Ball State can keep up with as they have allowed 10.4 points per first half in their last three games this season and being down early is going to be a problem for this defense. The Cardinals have forced only 2 fumbles in their last three games and have recovered those fumbles both times but the two fumbles and three interceptions is just not enough to keep Tulsa off the scoreboard. For me this game is all about who can make the most big plays and I give the edge to Tulsa and their WR's as Ball State has allowed quite a few more big passing the plays the last three games than they have all season and WR's Brennan Marion (one of the most underrated receivers in the NCAA with 25.9 yards per catch on 43 receptions this season), Slick Shelley and Trae Johnson are all very legit deep threats that are going to burn an overrated Ball State defense that has faced virtually nobody this season. No matter what you can expect Tulsa to want to win this game and want to win this game big after their pathetic 24 point effort against East Carolina in the championship game. It's time for TULSA TO GET BACK ON TRACK AND WIN THIS GAME BIG!
What a letdown tonight with this piece of shit Bowl Game compared to what we had last night. My play of the year was a winner, I have a 50 Unit power play on the BCS Championship Game tomorrow so this is somewhat of a night off with a play just to have action. The way I see things is that both teams are coming off straight up losses as double digit favorites in their respective conference championship games and both teams are looking to rebound from those losses with a big win in this game. The difference however is that Ball State did not taste defeat all season long and their loss to a pathetic looking Buffalo team is probably a lot more demoralizing than Tulsa's loss to East Carolina who put up a good fight in their Bowl Game last week against Kentucky. You have two of the top 12 offenses in the Country going at it tonight and the original assumption is that this game is going to be high scoring. Well I don't doubt that it will be but maybe not as high scoring as some would think. Both teams have secondaries that have done well this season and avoided being burned by deep throws but having said that Ball State has allowed a few too many big plays for my liking in recent games and I am going against them here. All the ATS stats point to a Ball State win tonight but please understand that the Golden Hurricane know what its like to a lose a game and recover, while Ball State is coming off their first loss of the season and I think they have a lost a bit of their momentum and a bit of their confidence heading into this game tonight. TULSA WINS THIS GAME BIG GUYS!
Trend of the Game: None
Tulsa 42, Ball State 31
:toast:
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane were just as shocked as most handicappers when they lost the CUSA Conference Championship Game agaist East Carolina but I was all over the Pirates and the loss did not surprise me despite the Hurricane being a -12.5 point favorite. There is no chance in hell they come out looking flat in this game and there is no chance in the world the #54 ranked defense of Ball State is going to stop these guys from avenging that loss. This is not like Ball State losing the MAC Conference Championship Game because the Cardinals were playing in that game for the first time ever, nerves got the best of them and now that they have lost a game, they will probably revert back to their old habits from the losing days. Tulsa on the other hand has been the best team in this Conference for a few years now and they are not used to losing the way Ball State would be used to losing games. That makes all the difference in the world because they are that much hungrier to recover from that loss in the championship game. I was laughing at Ball State for not facing any Bowl Bound teams this season but Tulsa has not exactly done any better than that. They did however face a few Bowl bound teams and they did quite well against them. The Golden Hurricane were -16.5 point favorites over Rice earlier this season and won that game 63-28. They were -3.5 point favorites over Houston on the road but lost that game 70-30 in a complete shootout. They then faced East Carolina as -12.5 in that CUSA Conference Championship Game and lost that by three points. So their pedigree and their strength of schedule is no better than Ball State's. Tulsa did however face the #41 ranked defense of New Mexico this season and they beat them 56-14. Tulsa also faced the #44 ranked defense of Central Florida and beat them 49-19. I am not concerned about the #54 ranked defense of Ball State. The Golden Hurricane did not really do all that well on the road away from home this season as they went 2-4 ATS in those games and lost all but one of their three games on opposing teams soil. This is a neutral site game that is being played in the neighbouring State of Alabama and the crowd is going to be pro Tulsa as they seek to avenge their bad loss in the Conference USA Championship Game. This is a very dangerous team that can shoot things out with just about anyone when they want to and I think Ball State is in a heap of trouble coming into this game tonight. Tulsa comes into this game averaging an NCAA best 47.4 points per game this season and in those games they have managed to also average 565.0 total yards of offense per game in those games on an incredible 7.3 yards per play. I think the Hurricane are going to have a feast tonight against a Ball State defense that has allowed 29.3 points per game in their last three games and a defense that has allowed 370.0 total yards of offense per game in their last three games on 5.4 yards per play. That sounds like good defense but their opponents have been horrendous and this is by far the best offense Ball State has seen all season and this is going to be some shocking stuff here. On the ground, Tulsa is just as good as Ball State as they average 254.8 rushing yards per game on the season and average 5.4 yards per carry in those games. RB Tarrion Adams is an Oklahoma transfer and huge part of this offense and the top four running backs on this team all average at least 5.8 yards per carry this season and they have combined for 22 rushing touchdowns which is equal to what MiQuale Lewis can do for the Cardinals. Ball State's run defense has actually been pretty good this season and in their last three games they have allowed only 117.7 rushing yards per game in those games on 3.8 yards per carry. The only thing is this team has not seen a passing attack like Tulsa's and once the Golden Hurricane can get an aerial attack going in this game, the running room is going to open up big time and Adams should have a field day with some huge gains rushing in this game. In the air, QB David Johnson has been amazing all season with his only really bad game coming in the CUSA Conference Championship Game where he threw 5 interceptions and still lost by only three points. Johnson has completed 64.8% of his passes this season for 3866 passing yards, 10.3 yards per pass attempt, 43 touchdown passes and 18 interceptions which is to be expected when you have to pass the ball that many times and throw it deep that many times. Safe enough to say that this offense loves big plays, they love to go deep and they take enough chances that when they convert those chances, they are going to blowout opponents. Ball State is in a heap of trouble in this game and I have said it many times. They have allowed their last three opponents to complete 60.0% of their passes and in those games have allowed those same opponents to complete 6.9 yards per pass attempt in their last three games. Much like the Tulsa defense, this Ball State does not allow any big plays in the passing attack and that is one of the reasons why I think this game is probably going to be a lot lower scoring than most people think. The Tulsa offense knows a thing or two about dealing with turnovers because as mentioned before, Johnson has thrown 18 interceptions this season and they have lost 9 fumbles this season in 13 games but other than that this is a very disciplined team that has taken only 4.6 penalties per game this season and this is all about quick starts because the team that leads early is probably going to run away with the game and never look back. On that note, Tulsa averages 25.1 points PER FIRST HALF THIS SEASON and that is not something Ball State can keep up with as they have allowed 10.4 points per first half in their last three games this season and being down early is going to be a problem for this defense. The Cardinals have forced only 2 fumbles in their last three games and have recovered those fumbles both times but the two fumbles and three interceptions is just not enough to keep Tulsa off the scoreboard. For me this game is all about who can make the most big plays and I give the edge to Tulsa and their WR's as Ball State has allowed quite a few more big passing the plays the last three games than they have all season and WR's Brennan Marion (one of the most underrated receivers in the NCAA with 25.9 yards per catch on 43 receptions this season), Slick Shelley and Trae Johnson are all very legit deep threats that are going to burn an overrated Ball State defense that has faced virtually nobody this season. No matter what you can expect Tulsa to want to win this game and want to win this game big after their pathetic 24 point effort against East Carolina in the championship game. It's time for TULSA TO GET BACK ON TRACK AND WIN THIS GAME BIG!
What a letdown tonight with this piece of shit Bowl Game compared to what we had last night. My play of the year was a winner, I have a 50 Unit power play on the BCS Championship Game tomorrow so this is somewhat of a night off with a play just to have action. The way I see things is that both teams are coming off straight up losses as double digit favorites in their respective conference championship games and both teams are looking to rebound from those losses with a big win in this game. The difference however is that Ball State did not taste defeat all season long and their loss to a pathetic looking Buffalo team is probably a lot more demoralizing than Tulsa's loss to East Carolina who put up a good fight in their Bowl Game last week against Kentucky. You have two of the top 12 offenses in the Country going at it tonight and the original assumption is that this game is going to be high scoring. Well I don't doubt that it will be but maybe not as high scoring as some would think. Both teams have secondaries that have done well this season and avoided being burned by deep throws but having said that Ball State has allowed a few too many big plays for my liking in recent games and I am going against them here. All the ATS stats point to a Ball State win tonight but please understand that the Golden Hurricane know what its like to a lose a game and recover, while Ball State is coming off their first loss of the season and I think they have a lost a bit of their momentum and a bit of their confidence heading into this game tonight. TULSA WINS THIS GAME BIG GUYS!
Trend of the Game: None
Tulsa 42, Ball State 31
:toast:
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