MistaFlava's 2008 CBB Record: 20-20-2 ATS (-32.50 Units)
Last 14 Wagers: 10-4 ATS
I'm at 50% right now which is not bad because I was down quite a bit in early season action but now that we have entered crunch time and February is here, it's time to really bare down. I won't be releasing big unit plays every day like I have done the last week or so. I only care about the money I win and not the percentage of bets I win so taking home the cash is all that matters and proper Money Management is a must, although I have a feeling I will still drop bombs here and there. That's just the way I roll and if you don't like it I don't really give a shit. Gotta love college hoops a lot more than the NBA and believe me when I say that this is where the money is at despite some of these kids really sucking when the game is on the line. Only in this sport can you have miracle covers. Hope you enjoy my writeups.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
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Last 14 Wagers: 10-4 ATS
I'm at 50% right now which is not bad because I was down quite a bit in early season action but now that we have entered crunch time and February is here, it's time to really bare down. I won't be releasing big unit plays every day like I have done the last week or so. I only care about the money I win and not the percentage of bets I win so taking home the cash is all that matters and proper Money Management is a must, although I have a feeling I will still drop bombs here and there. That's just the way I roll and if you don't like it I don't really give a shit. Gotta love college hoops a lot more than the NBA and believe me when I say that this is where the money is at despite some of these kids really sucking when the game is on the line. Only in this sport can you have miracle covers. Hope you enjoy my writeups.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
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Wednesday, January 28
View attachment 6309 Pittsburgh Panthers -3 (10 Units)View attachment 6310
View attachment 6309 Pittsburgh Panthers -3 (10 Units)View attachment 6310
The Pittsburgh Panthers are a force to be reckoned with in the Big East and the oddsmakers are taking a real chance by slapping this line on them in this game. The Panthers have already shown on more than one occasion this season that they can win big road games in the Big East and that's all you really need to know. The Panthers are the third best team in the Country right now and this game really reminds me of the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State the other night where the Sooners were the much better team but not getting much respect in a road game they have lost in the past. The Panthers are 18-1 SU on the season, they have rocked opponents left and right almost all season and their only loss was at Louisville last week but you can forgive them for that because Louisville has proven to be a TOP 10 team in the Nation and the line was a bit off for that game. Villanova is no Louisville and it's hard to understand why the oddsmakers are giving them a chance in this game. In case some of you didn't see, Pittsburgh was a +1 at West Virginia on Sunday and they lost they won that game by 12 points. They were a +3.5 at Georgetown two weeks ago and won that game by 16 points. How about their trip to Florida State in late December where they were a -7 point favorite and had little trouble covering the spread in that game? All in all, the Panthers are 4-2-1 ATS away from home this season and for whatever reason I think they are going to do a lot better on the road than at home because oddsmakers will continue to questions how well this team can play. I also want to point out that when the Panthers win games they don't win the small and almost all their wins this season have come by double digits so if you like them to win, you like them to cover the spread in this game. Pittsburgh comes into this game averaging 77.0 points per game in their last five games and in those games they have shot a whopping 48.0% from the floor which puts them way above the NCAA average for that period of time. I can tell you right now that Villanova is going to have problems stopping the Panthers tonight as they have allowed 70.6 points per game in their last five games and despite allowing those opponents to shoot only 39.9% from the floor in those games, they are going to have to do everything to keep the Panthers off the board. What has killed me this season is the way the Panthers shoot the three ball and in their last three games they have dropped 7.4 three point shots made per game in those games and they are shooting 41.1% from three point range in those games. Now things are going to be a bit different for the Panthers in this game because Villanova has allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 27.5% from three point range and their perimeter defense is very good. Having said that, they don't have any inside defense and that's why Blair is probably going to have a huge game tonight. The Panthers have only been getting to the free throw line 18.0 times per game in their last five games. Well Villanova just doesn't know how to defense the interior and they have sent their last five opponents to the free throw line 24.2 times per game and that is not only going to put them into serious foul trouble trying to guard blair but it's going to give the Panthers too many opportunities to score easy buckets and setup open shots from the outside. The only way you are going to beat the Wildcats is if you have interior toughness and if you can rebound. Well the Panthers have 34.4 rebounds per game in their last five games and that includes 13.6 offensive rebounds per game in those games. With all that power up front, the Panthers should give the Wildcats more problems than they are used to in this game. Are there any guards playing better than the Panthers guards right now? Anywhere? I don't know but I do know that these guys are averaging a whopping 18.8 assists per game in their last five games, they have turned the ball over only 11.8 times per game in those games and great ball movement against big teams like Nova usually results in a lot of open looks and for a team shooting the ball as well as the Panthers are shooting the ball, that's lethal for Villanova. The more I think about it, the more Pittsburgh is probably going to have success both down low and from the outside in this game. No matter what Nova does on defense they are going to lack coverage on some of these Panther sharp shooters and Pittsburgh, as long as they can make a few of their free throws for a change, they are going to win this game by 10+ points and should have no problems covering this spread. The Panthers are just too tough.
The Villanova Wildcats are not that bad of a team and I had them in my TOP 25 before the season started and right now they are ranked #21 in the Country by poll voters. So yes this team is good and yes they are going to give the Panthers a nice little run for their money but in the end the question is...do they have enough weapons to handle the Panthers both outside and inside? I don't think so. The Wildcats have only four losses this season and they are 9-1 SU at home this season with their only loss coming at the hands of the Lousivlle Cardinals in a 61-60 home loss last week. Wow that's pretty close and this team is pretty good. Having said that, the Wildcats are coming off a nine point win at South Florida on the weekend and even though I went against them there and got screwed, I am going against them here again because I just don't think this team is all that good. South Florida covered the spread for 98% of that game and had it not been for a complete collapse the last 2-3 minutes of the game, I would be talking about how nice it was to cash going against this team. I don't know what it is but I don't see them doing all that well against good teams like Pittsburgh. Just because Lousivlle beat Pitt at home last weekend doesn't mean Villanova would do the same because the two teams matchup very differently. Villanova is only 3-3 ATS at home this season and I don't know that I like them that much with no home court advantage to speak of in an NBA Arena like the Wachovia Center. Oddsmakers actually thought Nova would beat the Cardinals hence why they were a -2 in that game but again they were wrong and had it not been for a second half mini collapse, the Cardinals would have won that game by a lot more points than they did. I have to admit this team is playing well having covered the spread in three straight games and that probably validates the line on this game and it makes a lot more sense. Villanova comes into this game averaging 75.6 points per game in their last five games and in those games they have shot 45.0% from the floor in those games which is not bad at all. Having said that, I think they can score some points in this game but I don't think they can score consistently which you have to if you are going to beat a Panthers team that has allowed 65.0 points per game in their last five games and that has held opponents to 43.1% shooting from the floor in those games. The Wildcats are a good three point shooting team but Pittsburgh has allowed their last five opponents to attempt only 14.8 three point shots per game in those games and if they can minimize how many long bombs the Cats jack up in this game they are going to have some success defensively. Villanova is a very aggressive team that loves going to the line and attacking the hoop to draw fould as they have been to that free throw line 26.6 times per game in their last five games and hit almost 70% of their free throws in those games. However, if the Panthers can find a way to slow the pace down in this game they are going to keep Villanova out of rythm offensively and they are going to avoid having early foul trouble despite the fact that I can almost guarantee Blair find a way to foul out of this game. As nice as it is to have inside toughness and aggressiveness like the Wildcats bring to the table every game, you have to understand that being tough against the Panthers doesn't always do anything because they are tougher. Nova have a whopping 36.6 rebounds per game in their last five games with 12.2 offensive rebounds per game in those games so we know they are tough to handle down low but having said that, the Panthers never allow teams to grab offensive boards as they have allowed their last five opponents to bring down only 28.8 rebounds per game and that is well below the NCAA average of 31.3 rebounds per game. If you bring the toughness to Nova you are going to frustrate them and force them into mistakes. This also comes down to guard play and the Panthers have the edge because the Nova guards, despite being great ball moving and playmaking guards, turn the ball over way too much for my liking and that is going to be a problem. Villanova has turned the ball over 14.2 times per game in their last five games and that is just not going to work against a Panthers defense that has forced 15.0 turnovers per game in their last five games and that average a whopping 8.0 steals per game in those games. One thing is for sure and that's that Villanova cannot handle the Panthers guards on the offensive side of things or on the defensive side of things where I think Jermain Dixon and Sam Young are going to be picking pockets all night long and making those turnovers into long shot clock wasting possessions which should be enough to slow down the Wildcats in this game. Villanova will win some big games this season but they just don't match up well with a very tough Panthers team that can really shut things down on defense and force enough turnovers to win the game off those turnovers. Not this time Nova, not against the #3 team in the Country...they are that good to cover this line.
This is the first time these two teams meet this season and we are in for nice little battle of two teams who can a) shoot from the outside and b) pound away down low and score some easy buckets. I have bet enough Pittsburgh games this season to know that if you go against them in games where it looks like they willl lose, you are going to get burned pretty bad. They are a very good team with a great balance and variety of guards and big men up front which is just what you need in the NCAA to challenge for a National Title. I think it's important to know that Pittsburgh has covered the spread the last four times in this series. Pittsburgh has won games in this building in the past and although they lost by one point here in 2008, they were a one point underdog in that game and now they are a full year more experienced this time around leading me to believe they are going to step things up a notch and take control of this game sometime in the second half. They will take so much control of this that the only way Nova covers the spread is if they hit a bunch of threes late in the game to somehow bring the game close and I just don't see that happening. How can you go against a Pittsburgh team that is 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning straight up record, a team that has covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 road games and a team that has covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 road games? Villanova is also good versus teams with winning records and being a home underdog is something they have done very well the last 13 times (covering the spread in 9 of those) but when it comes to facing the best of the best, I just don't think Villanova can play full 40 minutes which is what you need to beat and cover against this Panthers team. This should be a close game throughout but once Villanova gets into foul trouble and once the Panthers slow this game down, the much better guards of the Panthers are going to take over and find a way to close the door on any chances Villanova has of covering the spread. LOVE THE MATCHUP HERE!
Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite of 0.5 to 6.5 points.
Pittsburgh 71, Villanova 60
:toast:
I have three more picks tonight, not sure they will all come with writeups as im so busy at work right now. Good Luck on the Panthers tonight.
The Villanova Wildcats are not that bad of a team and I had them in my TOP 25 before the season started and right now they are ranked #21 in the Country by poll voters. So yes this team is good and yes they are going to give the Panthers a nice little run for their money but in the end the question is...do they have enough weapons to handle the Panthers both outside and inside? I don't think so. The Wildcats have only four losses this season and they are 9-1 SU at home this season with their only loss coming at the hands of the Lousivlle Cardinals in a 61-60 home loss last week. Wow that's pretty close and this team is pretty good. Having said that, the Wildcats are coming off a nine point win at South Florida on the weekend and even though I went against them there and got screwed, I am going against them here again because I just don't think this team is all that good. South Florida covered the spread for 98% of that game and had it not been for a complete collapse the last 2-3 minutes of the game, I would be talking about how nice it was to cash going against this team. I don't know what it is but I don't see them doing all that well against good teams like Pittsburgh. Just because Lousivlle beat Pitt at home last weekend doesn't mean Villanova would do the same because the two teams matchup very differently. Villanova is only 3-3 ATS at home this season and I don't know that I like them that much with no home court advantage to speak of in an NBA Arena like the Wachovia Center. Oddsmakers actually thought Nova would beat the Cardinals hence why they were a -2 in that game but again they were wrong and had it not been for a second half mini collapse, the Cardinals would have won that game by a lot more points than they did. I have to admit this team is playing well having covered the spread in three straight games and that probably validates the line on this game and it makes a lot more sense. Villanova comes into this game averaging 75.6 points per game in their last five games and in those games they have shot 45.0% from the floor in those games which is not bad at all. Having said that, I think they can score some points in this game but I don't think they can score consistently which you have to if you are going to beat a Panthers team that has allowed 65.0 points per game in their last five games and that has held opponents to 43.1% shooting from the floor in those games. The Wildcats are a good three point shooting team but Pittsburgh has allowed their last five opponents to attempt only 14.8 three point shots per game in those games and if they can minimize how many long bombs the Cats jack up in this game they are going to have some success defensively. Villanova is a very aggressive team that loves going to the line and attacking the hoop to draw fould as they have been to that free throw line 26.6 times per game in their last five games and hit almost 70% of their free throws in those games. However, if the Panthers can find a way to slow the pace down in this game they are going to keep Villanova out of rythm offensively and they are going to avoid having early foul trouble despite the fact that I can almost guarantee Blair find a way to foul out of this game. As nice as it is to have inside toughness and aggressiveness like the Wildcats bring to the table every game, you have to understand that being tough against the Panthers doesn't always do anything because they are tougher. Nova have a whopping 36.6 rebounds per game in their last five games with 12.2 offensive rebounds per game in those games so we know they are tough to handle down low but having said that, the Panthers never allow teams to grab offensive boards as they have allowed their last five opponents to bring down only 28.8 rebounds per game and that is well below the NCAA average of 31.3 rebounds per game. If you bring the toughness to Nova you are going to frustrate them and force them into mistakes. This also comes down to guard play and the Panthers have the edge because the Nova guards, despite being great ball moving and playmaking guards, turn the ball over way too much for my liking and that is going to be a problem. Villanova has turned the ball over 14.2 times per game in their last five games and that is just not going to work against a Panthers defense that has forced 15.0 turnovers per game in their last five games and that average a whopping 8.0 steals per game in those games. One thing is for sure and that's that Villanova cannot handle the Panthers guards on the offensive side of things or on the defensive side of things where I think Jermain Dixon and Sam Young are going to be picking pockets all night long and making those turnovers into long shot clock wasting possessions which should be enough to slow down the Wildcats in this game. Villanova will win some big games this season but they just don't match up well with a very tough Panthers team that can really shut things down on defense and force enough turnovers to win the game off those turnovers. Not this time Nova, not against the #3 team in the Country...they are that good to cover this line.
This is the first time these two teams meet this season and we are in for nice little battle of two teams who can a) shoot from the outside and b) pound away down low and score some easy buckets. I have bet enough Pittsburgh games this season to know that if you go against them in games where it looks like they willl lose, you are going to get burned pretty bad. They are a very good team with a great balance and variety of guards and big men up front which is just what you need in the NCAA to challenge for a National Title. I think it's important to know that Pittsburgh has covered the spread the last four times in this series. Pittsburgh has won games in this building in the past and although they lost by one point here in 2008, they were a one point underdog in that game and now they are a full year more experienced this time around leading me to believe they are going to step things up a notch and take control of this game sometime in the second half. They will take so much control of this that the only way Nova covers the spread is if they hit a bunch of threes late in the game to somehow bring the game close and I just don't see that happening. How can you go against a Pittsburgh team that is 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning straight up record, a team that has covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 road games and a team that has covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 road games? Villanova is also good versus teams with winning records and being a home underdog is something they have done very well the last 13 times (covering the spread in 9 of those) but when it comes to facing the best of the best, I just don't think Villanova can play full 40 minutes which is what you need to beat and cover against this Panthers team. This should be a close game throughout but once Villanova gets into foul trouble and once the Panthers slow this game down, the much better guards of the Panthers are going to take over and find a way to close the door on any chances Villanova has of covering the spread. LOVE THE MATCHUP HERE!
Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite of 0.5 to 6.5 points.
Pittsburgh 71, Villanova 60
:toast:
I have three more picks tonight, not sure they will all come with writeups as im so busy at work right now. Good Luck on the Panthers tonight.
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