MistaFlava's 2008 CBB Record: 26-29-4 ATS (-75.50 Units)
I'm at around 50% right now which is not bad because I was down quite a bit in early season action but now that we have entered crunch time and February is here, it's time to really bare down. I won't be releasing big unit plays every day like I have done the last week or so. I only care about the money I win and not the percentage of bets I win so taking home the cash is all that matters and proper Money Management is a must, although I have a feeling I will still drop bombs here and there. That's just the way I roll and if you don't like it I don't really give a shit. Gotta love college hoops a lot more than the NBA and believe me when I say that this is where the money is at despite some of these kids really sucking when the game is on the line. Only in this sport can you have miracle covers. Hope you enjoy my writeups.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
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I'm at around 50% right now which is not bad because I was down quite a bit in early season action but now that we have entered crunch time and February is here, it's time to really bare down. I won't be releasing big unit plays every day like I have done the last week or so. I only care about the money I win and not the percentage of bets I win so taking home the cash is all that matters and proper Money Management is a must, although I have a feeling I will still drop bombs here and there. That's just the way I roll and if you don't like it I don't really give a shit. Gotta love college hoops a lot more than the NBA and believe me when I say that this is where the money is at despite some of these kids really sucking when the game is on the line. Only in this sport can you have miracle covers. Hope you enjoy my writeups.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
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Tuesday, February 3
View attachment 6362 Purdue Boilermakers -2 (25 Units) View attachment 6361
***PLAY OF THE DAY***
View attachment 6362 Purdue Boilermakers -2 (25 Units) View attachment 6361
***PLAY OF THE DAY***
The Purdue Boilermakers are the #13 team in the Country right now and believe me they are not going to lose this game. I don't know how many times this team has to prove themselves before more people start believing they can win road games like this. I know about 65% of the public is on this team to win and cover tonight and that makes sense to me but what had me a bit concerned heading into tonight was how low the line is. Could it be that oddsmakers are still overvaluing the Buckeyes at home or could it just be that they don't trust Purdue to keep winning games away from home? The Boilermakers are one of the hottest teams in college basketball right now as they have won six straight games, have won eight of their last 10 games and have now covered the spread in four straight games. So how in the world do you figure they are all of a sudden going to have a bad game here. I mean this team is 5-2 SU away from this season and in those games they have gone only 3-4 ATS which doesn't look too good but this team is about a bit more than just ATS. They went to Wisconsin as a +1 point road underdog exactly one week ago and came out of there with a 1 point win. They were also a +1 point road underdog at Minnesota the game before that (don't forget the Gophers are ranked #19 right now) and that was an 8 point win. Their only conference road loss this season was against Penn State in their road opener but this team has come a long way since that day and their 18 point home win over the Michigan Wolverines on the weekend is a good indication that Purdue is ready to win yet another conference road game. The oddsmakers seem to think we may have another Penn State type of game on the line here but I don't see it that way at all and I think the Boilermakers roll in this game. Purdue comes into this game averaging 67.8 points per game in their last five games and they have managed to get that done by shooting a whopping 48.9% from the floor in those games and when you are shooting that well, winning on the road is a lot easier.Having said that, Ohio State's defense is pretty good and they have been playing some good basketball but again it's the mistakes these young players have made in the second half of games that has them losing these games against better teams. There is no team in the Nation shooting the three ball better than Purdue is in their last five game as they are hitting 47.9% of their shots from beyond the arc in those games and they have made 7.0 three point shots per game in those games. That's very bad news for an Ohio State team that often gets lost in defensive coverage and that often leaves guys wide open for three point shots as the Buckeyes last five opponents have hit 36.5% of their shots from three point range and made a whopping 9.2 three point shots per game in those games which is well above the 6.2 NCAA average for those games. The Buckeyes do a good job defending the inside and not many times find it easy to attack the basket as they keep everything outside and make you beat them from the outside. The Boilermakers however know how to get to the foul line and put other teams into foul trouble as they have been to the line 20.6 times per game in their last five games and shoot a very decent 71.8% from the charity stripe. The lack of effort on the boards has somewhat killed the Buckeyes in some of their recent games and Purdue is actually one of the better rebounding teams in the Big Ten and that could be a problem for an Ohio State team that has allowed their last five opponents to bring down 10.2 offensive rebounds per game and that has problems coming up with rebounds themselves on both ends of the court. Purdue's guard play is not only much more experienced than Ohio State's but they have a lot more poise to win a low-scoring game like this as they average 15.6 assists per game in their last five games and that's very bad news for a Buckeyes team that has allowed 14.8 assists against them per game in their last five games and that have all sorts of problems defending teams that can move the ball with consisten offensive flow. I know the Boilermakers have turned the ball over way too many times in their last five games but Ohio State doesn't play a high pressure defense and they have only 5.8 steals per game in their last five games and have forced only 13.4 turnovers per game in those games (both below the NCAA average for those games). It's not that easy to score points inside against Ohio State but it won't matter tonight because Purdue is a very good team when it comes to outside shooting and they are a bad matchup for the Buckeyes. Expect another big conference road win.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are probably sick and tired of beating the teams they are supposed to beat and losing against teams that are supposed to beat them. Having said that, this is another huge home game for a team that is coming off some big conference wins but again those wins were against two un-ranked opponents and the Bucketyes were favored both times. What I need to know is why people, if anyone at all, would give the Buckeyes the benefit of the doubt in this game with such a small line and when the Buckeyes have yet to prove themselves? Okay so to the naked eye things look pretty good because Ohio State is 15-5 SU on the season and they typically have good teams year in and year out. But I don't know if you guys have noticed this but in college sports, the public seems to be a lot more savvy about certain teams than they are about pro teams and that is why I am not concerned about the amount of people taking Purdue tonight. Ohio State is coming off a 93 point effort on the road in a huge win over Indiana and prior to that they beat Michigan by 18 at home which is why we are getting this kind of line but oddsmakers are putting way too much into the fact that the Buckeyes just beat two bad teams that won't be around come NCAA Tournament time and not enough into the fact that Ohio State lost by 11 at home against Michigan State, lost by 28 at home against West Virginia and have yet to beat a good opponent at home this season. So again why in the world would you back them here? They are only 4-5 ATS at home, they have not shown that they can beat better teams and I just don't see it happening tonight either. Ohio State comes into this game averaging 69.2 points per game in their last five games and shooting a whopping 54.1% from the floor in those games but when you come off games against Michigan and Indiana you better have a good shooting percentage because defensively those two teams are horrendous. Purdue on the other hand has the #1 field goal percentage defense in the Country right now and they have the #7 defense overall so if you thought Ohio State had offensive rythm heading into this thing, it's about to end right here. In their last five games, Purdue has allowed only 57.6 points per game and their opponents have managed to shoot only 35.5% from the field which are both well below the NCAA averages for the last five games. The only way you're ever really going to beat Purdue is if you can shoot the lights out from three point land and despite the fact that Ohio State has hit 40.5% of their three point shots in the last three games, they have made only 6.4 three point shots per game in those games and that's not enough to make the Boilermakers pay. I always said that when Purdue runs into a a team that can knock down a bunch of threes, they are going to be in trouble. The only reason Purdue allows a lot of three point shots is because teams can't get anything going inside. Ohio State has the ability to get to the basket and they done a good job of getting to the line in their last five games against some of the weaker teams but things won't be all that easy against a Purdue team that has sent their last five opponents to the free throw line only 17.4 times per game in their last five games. Ohio State is just an average free throw shooting team and if they cannot take advantage of the chances Purdue gives them inside and from the line, they are going to have problems keeping up in this game. I say that because the Buckeyes are not a good rebounding team and they rarely have second chance point opportunities as they have grabbed only 25.6 rebounds per game in their last five games and the NCAA average is 31.2 for those games. Purdue is very good at protecting their own basket and their last five opponents have brough down only 8.0 rebounds per game in the last five games and the Buckeyes have only 5.2 offensive rebounds per game in their last five games. That's horrendous and that means unless they can shoot the lights out again this game, they will have problems scoring. I am a fan of the young guards on this team because they know how to move the ball and they do have some hop in their step. Having said that, youth is a problem because they have turned the ball over 15.4 times per game in their last five games and that is not going to work against a Purdue team that has 7.8 steals per game in their last five games and that are forcing 13.6 turnovers per game in those games. The Boilermakers will only let you beat them from the outside as they have some serious strength in the middle with their 6.0 blocks per game in the last five games and Ohio State is going to have problems getting their offensive flow going just about all night. When you can't score against Purdue, they score against you and that is why I think they run away with this game in the second half as they have done their last two road games against two good home teams. BUCKEYES ARE TOO INEXPERIENCED TO WIN HERE!
I have watched a lot of Ohio State home games this season and here is what I have noticed. Although they have a good core of players, they are just too young to win big games and play a full 40 minutes of basketball that is worth something against better teams. We saw it against Michigan State (they had a big lead in the first half and blew it by early second half before getting blown out) and we saw it other home games against good teams. They really miss David Lighty and until he comes back, I refuse to ever place a wager on these guys because they just don't have the experience to close out games and get out of sticky situations at home against better teams. Most of the time you would be worried about betting on a team that is favored away from home against conference opponents but Purdue is a bit different as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus teams with a winning record. In case you didn't know by now, Purdue has covered the spread in 27 of their last 36 Big Ten Conference games and they have covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 road games so what more do you want here? Ohio State on the other hand, apart from being mismatched badly in this game, are only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog...again a bad spot for them here. They are also 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points and this looks like another one of those bad spots for this team. The line in this game is so low because Ohio State has falsely look good their last two games but again when they play against good teams, they just can't win. BANK THIS BABY!
Trend of the Game: Purdue is 27-9-1 ATS in their last 37 games versus Big Ten opponents.
Purdue 72, Ohio State 63
:toast:
Alright so I have one more play for tonight, unfortunately NBA is being put off for another few nights. My next play is in the televised South Carolina-Florida game and its a smaller unit play but should be a good one. Looking for a sweep.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are probably sick and tired of beating the teams they are supposed to beat and losing against teams that are supposed to beat them. Having said that, this is another huge home game for a team that is coming off some big conference wins but again those wins were against two un-ranked opponents and the Bucketyes were favored both times. What I need to know is why people, if anyone at all, would give the Buckeyes the benefit of the doubt in this game with such a small line and when the Buckeyes have yet to prove themselves? Okay so to the naked eye things look pretty good because Ohio State is 15-5 SU on the season and they typically have good teams year in and year out. But I don't know if you guys have noticed this but in college sports, the public seems to be a lot more savvy about certain teams than they are about pro teams and that is why I am not concerned about the amount of people taking Purdue tonight. Ohio State is coming off a 93 point effort on the road in a huge win over Indiana and prior to that they beat Michigan by 18 at home which is why we are getting this kind of line but oddsmakers are putting way too much into the fact that the Buckeyes just beat two bad teams that won't be around come NCAA Tournament time and not enough into the fact that Ohio State lost by 11 at home against Michigan State, lost by 28 at home against West Virginia and have yet to beat a good opponent at home this season. So again why in the world would you back them here? They are only 4-5 ATS at home, they have not shown that they can beat better teams and I just don't see it happening tonight either. Ohio State comes into this game averaging 69.2 points per game in their last five games and shooting a whopping 54.1% from the floor in those games but when you come off games against Michigan and Indiana you better have a good shooting percentage because defensively those two teams are horrendous. Purdue on the other hand has the #1 field goal percentage defense in the Country right now and they have the #7 defense overall so if you thought Ohio State had offensive rythm heading into this thing, it's about to end right here. In their last five games, Purdue has allowed only 57.6 points per game and their opponents have managed to shoot only 35.5% from the field which are both well below the NCAA averages for the last five games. The only way you're ever really going to beat Purdue is if you can shoot the lights out from three point land and despite the fact that Ohio State has hit 40.5% of their three point shots in the last three games, they have made only 6.4 three point shots per game in those games and that's not enough to make the Boilermakers pay. I always said that when Purdue runs into a a team that can knock down a bunch of threes, they are going to be in trouble. The only reason Purdue allows a lot of three point shots is because teams can't get anything going inside. Ohio State has the ability to get to the basket and they done a good job of getting to the line in their last five games against some of the weaker teams but things won't be all that easy against a Purdue team that has sent their last five opponents to the free throw line only 17.4 times per game in their last five games. Ohio State is just an average free throw shooting team and if they cannot take advantage of the chances Purdue gives them inside and from the line, they are going to have problems keeping up in this game. I say that because the Buckeyes are not a good rebounding team and they rarely have second chance point opportunities as they have grabbed only 25.6 rebounds per game in their last five games and the NCAA average is 31.2 for those games. Purdue is very good at protecting their own basket and their last five opponents have brough down only 8.0 rebounds per game in the last five games and the Buckeyes have only 5.2 offensive rebounds per game in their last five games. That's horrendous and that means unless they can shoot the lights out again this game, they will have problems scoring. I am a fan of the young guards on this team because they know how to move the ball and they do have some hop in their step. Having said that, youth is a problem because they have turned the ball over 15.4 times per game in their last five games and that is not going to work against a Purdue team that has 7.8 steals per game in their last five games and that are forcing 13.6 turnovers per game in those games. The Boilermakers will only let you beat them from the outside as they have some serious strength in the middle with their 6.0 blocks per game in the last five games and Ohio State is going to have problems getting their offensive flow going just about all night. When you can't score against Purdue, they score against you and that is why I think they run away with this game in the second half as they have done their last two road games against two good home teams. BUCKEYES ARE TOO INEXPERIENCED TO WIN HERE!
I have watched a lot of Ohio State home games this season and here is what I have noticed. Although they have a good core of players, they are just too young to win big games and play a full 40 minutes of basketball that is worth something against better teams. We saw it against Michigan State (they had a big lead in the first half and blew it by early second half before getting blown out) and we saw it other home games against good teams. They really miss David Lighty and until he comes back, I refuse to ever place a wager on these guys because they just don't have the experience to close out games and get out of sticky situations at home against better teams. Most of the time you would be worried about betting on a team that is favored away from home against conference opponents but Purdue is a bit different as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus teams with a winning record. In case you didn't know by now, Purdue has covered the spread in 27 of their last 36 Big Ten Conference games and they have covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 road games so what more do you want here? Ohio State on the other hand, apart from being mismatched badly in this game, are only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog...again a bad spot for them here. They are also 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points and this looks like another one of those bad spots for this team. The line in this game is so low because Ohio State has falsely look good their last two games but again when they play against good teams, they just can't win. BANK THIS BABY!
Trend of the Game: Purdue is 27-9-1 ATS in their last 37 games versus Big Ten opponents.
Purdue 72, Ohio State 63
:toast:
Alright so I have one more play for tonight, unfortunately NBA is being put off for another few nights. My next play is in the televised South Carolina-Florida game and its a smaller unit play but should be a good one. Looking for a sweep.
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