MistaFlava's 2008 CBB Record: 19-19-2 ATS (-15.00 Units)
Last 10 Wagers: 9-3 ATS
SCREW YOU DJOKOVIC...those are my final tennis words in college basketball threads. Most of you know where to find my picks, end of story, this is CBB. Went 2-0 ATS yesterday and another very good capping day. I am on a hot streak since coming back to college hoops and this is where I turn my season around and make a big time run for the cash. I don't normally do well in pre-New Year's college basketball selections so now is my time to shine and at least I've had the opportunity to watch a bunch of these teams play and I now have a better feel for where things are going, who can do what on the road, who can do what at home and it's just easier to watch a bit before betting. Nonetheless, my record is shit, I want to make it better and I hope to have a much different season than my college football season and a season a lot more like the NFL season I am having right now. This is one of the most exciting time's of the year for sports (don't we say that about 4-5 times a year???) and the road the Madness has begun, baseball is just around the corner and there is so much money to be made out there it's not even funny.
This is the best time of the year to bet CBB because the lines are often way off and a lot of teams are either overrated big time or underrated. Don't forget these kids care a lot more than the pros do.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
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Last 10 Wagers: 9-3 ATS
SCREW YOU DJOKOVIC...those are my final tennis words in college basketball threads. Most of you know where to find my picks, end of story, this is CBB. Went 2-0 ATS yesterday and another very good capping day. I am on a hot streak since coming back to college hoops and this is where I turn my season around and make a big time run for the cash. I don't normally do well in pre-New Year's college basketball selections so now is my time to shine and at least I've had the opportunity to watch a bunch of these teams play and I now have a better feel for where things are going, who can do what on the road, who can do what at home and it's just easier to watch a bit before betting. Nonetheless, my record is shit, I want to make it better and I hope to have a much different season than my college football season and a season a lot more like the NFL season I am having right now. This is one of the most exciting time's of the year for sports (don't we say that about 4-5 times a year???) and the road the Madness has begun, baseball is just around the corner and there is so much money to be made out there it's not even funny.
This is the best time of the year to bet CBB because the lines are often way off and a lot of teams are either overrated big time or underrated. Don't forget these kids care a lot more than the pros do.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
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Tuesday, January 27
View attachment 6302 Purdue Boilermakers +1 (10 units) View attachment 6303
View attachment 6302 Purdue Boilermakers +1 (10 units) View attachment 6303
The Purdue Boilermakers are a fun team to bet on no matter who they are playing against and I'm guessing some of you would have learned your lessons by now in terms of fading or tailing this team. Purdue is now 15-4 SU on the year and although they have cost some of you money this season, I have been on them 2-3 times and won every single time so this is the kind of team you should only bet on in spot bets and this is one of them. The Boilermakers had no problems winning the first meeting at home between these two teams as they were the much better team and they won that game by 13 points as a -6 point favorite. I know they are not the same on the road but they are 3-1 SU on the road this season with wins at Northwestern, Minnesota, Ball State and a neutral court win over Boston College. The Boilermakers are only 2-4 ATS in those games but I like the way they won tough road games against NW and against the Gophers and I think this is the kind of game this team needs to make a statement. Can you believe the long layoff between games for Purdue? I mean they have not played a single basketball game since that win at Minnesota last Thursday which is ample time to stay fresh, go home and relax and prepare for what should be a wild game in Maddison. This team is on a serious roll right now havin won four straight games and winning 8 of their last 10 and they have won 4 of their 6 in-conference games so far. The Boilermakers have only been underdogs once this season and that was their win against the Gophers on Thursday. They were +10 point underdogs when they came to this building in 2008 and they ended up winning that game by 5 points which was impressive. Purdue comes into this game averaging 67.4 points per game in their last five games and they have managed to get that done by shooting 46.1% from the floor in those games. Wisconsin's defense is decent and the Boilermakers are going to have to work for points tonight as the Badgers have allowed 65.0 points per game in their last five games and have allowed their opponents to shoot only 43.8% from the floor in those games (a bit worse than the NCAA average for those games). Having said that, is there a hotter team in the Country when it comes to three point shooting accuracy the last five games? In those games the Boilermakers have hit a whopping 45.7% of their shots from beyond the arc and they have made 7.4 three point shots per game in those games. Wisconsin;s perimeter defense is solid and they most definitely won't allow Purdue to unload three pointers on them in this game. So the key for Purdue in this game is to work the ball inside when the Badgers play man on the outside as the middle should be wide open all game. Wisconsin is the kind of team that would rather you beat them inside anyways and Purdue is going to do just that. They have been to the free throw line 20.4 times per game in their last five games and are a very good free throw shooting team that has made 72.5% of their free throws in those games. Like I said before what bothers me about Wisconsin is their interior defense. They are not fundamentally sound enough to handle guys like Robbie Hummel and Jajuan Johnson who really bothered them last game and should do the same this game. They combined for 36 points last game and really dominated the inside. Wisconsin's last five opponents have been to the free throw line 21.8 times per game which gives quite the edge to the Boilermakers in this game. The board battle is going to be a good one in this game because Purdue is a decent rebounding team but they don't get many second chance points and average only 7.8 offensive rebounds per game. Wisconsin is at home and I'm pretty sure they'll be doing what they can to box out which is fine as long as Purdue can continue getting to the line and continue making shots from the outside when they are there for the taking. The only way you are going to beat Purdue is if you can force turnovers because the Boilermakers are mistake prone but Wisconsin is not aggressive enough on defense and they have forced only 10.8 turnovers per game in their last five games and have only 5.6 steals per game in those games. Not good enough because Keaton Grant and Etwaun Moore are very good ball handlers and they have led this team to 15.0 assists per game in their last five games. Like I said before, Wisconsin does a very good job of shutting down the outside and they dont allow much ball movement forcing opponents to drain the shot clock and take bad shots from the outside but it bothers me that they don't force turnovers because Purdue is a good shooting team and good shooting teams can get around this defense. The Boilermakers have good balance on the outside and good balance on the outside and although it won't be easy, I really think they can trouble the Wisconsin defense with their toughness inside and Etwaun Moore's ability to do pretty much everything. Wisconsin couldn't handle Hummel and Johnson in the first meeting and even if they can handle them this time around, the Boilermakers have too many weapons in their lineup and they will find a way to win this game. PURDUE MATCHES UP VERY WELL IN THIS GAME!
The Wisconsin Badgers need this win badly because they are quickly fading right out of Big Ten Conference contention and the way things are going it looks like they are making a b-line for the NIT Tournament at this point in time. We are talking about a Wisconsin team that has lost four straight games right now, that are in dire need a of a win and that will probably have a lot more pressure than they can handle to get that win tonight. I am glad that a lot of cappers think they can win the game because it does make sense to back them at home at what are virtual moneyline odds. So what do you do when you are coming off straight losses to Purdue on the road, to Minnesota at home in overtime, to Iowa on the road in overtime and to Illinois on the road? Is it not clear to you guys that Wisconsin is a desperate team right now and that losing twice in overtime while trying to break a losing streak has somewhat taken it's toll on these guys? I was on Illinois this weekend when they blew that big lead and let the Badgers back in the game to get the push but let me tell you that had it not been for that late game surge, the Badgers would have lost by 20 points which is more or less how the game really played itself out. It's nice to be 8-2 SU at home this season but when your only wins are against Penn State and Northwestern, I just don't believe you are going to beat a good team like Purdue. Even at that, Wisconsin has not played well enough at home this season to show that they can win a game like this as they are 3-5 ATS in those home games their recent string of bad luck and bad games gives them absolutely no momentum heading into this game. This is pure panic mode for this team tonight because they know Purdue is good, they know Purdue won here last season and they know that losing another game is not an option...for me that's too much pressure and this team won't win until their road game at Northwestern this upcoming Saturday. Wisconsin comes into this game averaging 65.2 points per game in their last five games and they have managed to shoot only 41.5% from the floor in those games which is for sure one of the big reasons they can't get a win right now. Those numbers are both well below the NCAA average for that period of time and Wisconsin has to find a way out. Well let me tell you right now that the way out is not here, not now, not against this Purdue team that has allowed only 59.0 points per game in their last five games and that has held their last five opponents to 35.1% shooting from the floor. How the hell do you bust out of a slump when you have to play against a defense like this anyways? What I do know from watching Purdue is that their perimeter defense is not all that good and they do leave guys open on the outside preferring to shut teams down on the inside and that has worked for them. In other words the only way to beat the Boilermakers defense is to drop bombs from three point land but the problem is that Wisconsin is making only 27.7% of their shots from three point land in the last five games and that is not good at all seeing how 35.1% of their shot attemptes in those games have been from three point range. Not only is Wisconsin not hitting their shots from the outside but they aren't getting to the line either and with guys like Hummel and Johnson operating the middle in this game, that certainly won't change. Wisconsin has been to the free throw line only 15.8 times per game in the last five games and despite making 73.4% of those freebies, that's just not aggressive enough to win. Purdue is tough as nails in the middle and the only way to beat them is outside shooting, which they let you have anyways. The Badgers don't have a true center and I don't know how you beat Purdue without a true center. They are just too tough inside, they have 6.4 blocks per game in their last five games which is double the NCAA average for those games and Wisconsin is not shooting well enough from the outside to even come close in this game. That's a fact of life right now for the Badgers. Guard wise, this offense is just too dormant. They have not moved the ball around well at all in their four losses and they are averaging only 11.8 assists per game in their last five games. Sure they have turned the ball over only 9.8 times per game the last five games but how can you keep up with a good scoring team like Purdue when all your offensive sets are designed to use 95% of the shot clock and when you are shooting as poorly as this team is shooting? It just doesn't workout for these guys in this game. Purdue isn't all that chippy on defense but like I said before, they really don't let you in on the inside which means you have to shoot the lights out from the outside to beat them. Wisconsin has quite a few guys who can knock em down from the outside but everyone is playing poorly and I just don't see them playing from behind in yet another game here. You can tally up another loss for the Badgers if you ask me...NOT AGAINST THIS PURDUE TEAM!
This is the Big Ten Conference and if you go against Purdue at any point in conference play you are going to get burned. I was on these guys against Minnesota and I actually see this game going pretty much the exact same way as that one. I love how the public is divided on this game because if everyone was on Purdue I was going to be right off this game in general. This is going to be a classic Big Ten showdown and how can you not like the Boilermakers the way they are playing? I know Wisconsin is underachieving but cmon guys. I don't want to hear that bullshit about one team cannot win both the home and away meetings in this series because a) Purdue won both games last season, b) Wisconsin won both games in 2005 and c) it happens all the time in college basketball so no worries there. Everyone betting Wisconsin has revenge on their minds but they aren't thinking pure talent. Hey Vegas...you sure you want to make these guys underdogs in this game? Purdue has covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 games as underdogs and they have covered the spread in 25 of their last 34 games in Big Ten Conference play. WOW!!!! I also want to point out that Purdue is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 road games and have covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 as road underdogs. Need I say more? Sure...Wisconsin is only 1-6 ATS in their last seven games played on a Tuesday, they are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games versus a team with a winning road record and they have covered the spread just one time in their last six games overall. Purdue is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams and the underdog has covered 5 of the last 6 meetings. CHOO CHOO TO THE BANK!!!!!!!
Trend of the Game: Purdue is 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 games versus Big Ten Conference opponents.
Purdue 69, Wisconsin 64
:toast:.
Not a huge play by my standards guys but nonetheless I love the Boilermakers and the matchup here tonight against this Wisconsin team. I know I said I wouldn't talk tennis and I won't but I do have a big play tonight again, this one should workout a lot better than the one last night at better odds too. GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
The Wisconsin Badgers need this win badly because they are quickly fading right out of Big Ten Conference contention and the way things are going it looks like they are making a b-line for the NIT Tournament at this point in time. We are talking about a Wisconsin team that has lost four straight games right now, that are in dire need a of a win and that will probably have a lot more pressure than they can handle to get that win tonight. I am glad that a lot of cappers think they can win the game because it does make sense to back them at home at what are virtual moneyline odds. So what do you do when you are coming off straight losses to Purdue on the road, to Minnesota at home in overtime, to Iowa on the road in overtime and to Illinois on the road? Is it not clear to you guys that Wisconsin is a desperate team right now and that losing twice in overtime while trying to break a losing streak has somewhat taken it's toll on these guys? I was on Illinois this weekend when they blew that big lead and let the Badgers back in the game to get the push but let me tell you that had it not been for that late game surge, the Badgers would have lost by 20 points which is more or less how the game really played itself out. It's nice to be 8-2 SU at home this season but when your only wins are against Penn State and Northwestern, I just don't believe you are going to beat a good team like Purdue. Even at that, Wisconsin has not played well enough at home this season to show that they can win a game like this as they are 3-5 ATS in those home games their recent string of bad luck and bad games gives them absolutely no momentum heading into this game. This is pure panic mode for this team tonight because they know Purdue is good, they know Purdue won here last season and they know that losing another game is not an option...for me that's too much pressure and this team won't win until their road game at Northwestern this upcoming Saturday. Wisconsin comes into this game averaging 65.2 points per game in their last five games and they have managed to shoot only 41.5% from the floor in those games which is for sure one of the big reasons they can't get a win right now. Those numbers are both well below the NCAA average for that period of time and Wisconsin has to find a way out. Well let me tell you right now that the way out is not here, not now, not against this Purdue team that has allowed only 59.0 points per game in their last five games and that has held their last five opponents to 35.1% shooting from the floor. How the hell do you bust out of a slump when you have to play against a defense like this anyways? What I do know from watching Purdue is that their perimeter defense is not all that good and they do leave guys open on the outside preferring to shut teams down on the inside and that has worked for them. In other words the only way to beat the Boilermakers defense is to drop bombs from three point land but the problem is that Wisconsin is making only 27.7% of their shots from three point land in the last five games and that is not good at all seeing how 35.1% of their shot attemptes in those games have been from three point range. Not only is Wisconsin not hitting their shots from the outside but they aren't getting to the line either and with guys like Hummel and Johnson operating the middle in this game, that certainly won't change. Wisconsin has been to the free throw line only 15.8 times per game in the last five games and despite making 73.4% of those freebies, that's just not aggressive enough to win. Purdue is tough as nails in the middle and the only way to beat them is outside shooting, which they let you have anyways. The Badgers don't have a true center and I don't know how you beat Purdue without a true center. They are just too tough inside, they have 6.4 blocks per game in their last five games which is double the NCAA average for those games and Wisconsin is not shooting well enough from the outside to even come close in this game. That's a fact of life right now for the Badgers. Guard wise, this offense is just too dormant. They have not moved the ball around well at all in their four losses and they are averaging only 11.8 assists per game in their last five games. Sure they have turned the ball over only 9.8 times per game the last five games but how can you keep up with a good scoring team like Purdue when all your offensive sets are designed to use 95% of the shot clock and when you are shooting as poorly as this team is shooting? It just doesn't workout for these guys in this game. Purdue isn't all that chippy on defense but like I said before, they really don't let you in on the inside which means you have to shoot the lights out from the outside to beat them. Wisconsin has quite a few guys who can knock em down from the outside but everyone is playing poorly and I just don't see them playing from behind in yet another game here. You can tally up another loss for the Badgers if you ask me...NOT AGAINST THIS PURDUE TEAM!
This is the Big Ten Conference and if you go against Purdue at any point in conference play you are going to get burned. I was on these guys against Minnesota and I actually see this game going pretty much the exact same way as that one. I love how the public is divided on this game because if everyone was on Purdue I was going to be right off this game in general. This is going to be a classic Big Ten showdown and how can you not like the Boilermakers the way they are playing? I know Wisconsin is underachieving but cmon guys. I don't want to hear that bullshit about one team cannot win both the home and away meetings in this series because a) Purdue won both games last season, b) Wisconsin won both games in 2005 and c) it happens all the time in college basketball so no worries there. Everyone betting Wisconsin has revenge on their minds but they aren't thinking pure talent. Hey Vegas...you sure you want to make these guys underdogs in this game? Purdue has covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 games as underdogs and they have covered the spread in 25 of their last 34 games in Big Ten Conference play. WOW!!!! I also want to point out that Purdue is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 road games and have covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 as road underdogs. Need I say more? Sure...Wisconsin is only 1-6 ATS in their last seven games played on a Tuesday, they are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games versus a team with a winning road record and they have covered the spread just one time in their last six games overall. Purdue is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams and the underdog has covered 5 of the last 6 meetings. CHOO CHOO TO THE BANK!!!!!!!
Trend of the Game: Purdue is 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 games versus Big Ten Conference opponents.
Purdue 69, Wisconsin 64
:toast:.
Not a huge play by my standards guys but nonetheless I love the Boilermakers and the matchup here tonight against this Wisconsin team. I know I said I wouldn't talk tennis and I won't but I do have a big play tonight again, this one should workout a lot better than the one last night at better odds too. GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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