MistaFlava's CBB Tournament Wednesday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis/30-15 ATS so far)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2009 NCAA Tournaments Record: 30-15-1 ATS (+135.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CBB Record: 141-123-4 ATS (+97.80 Units)

Alright so tournament time is here and this is generally where I have most of my success with betting on college basketball. I will be betting on the NIT, the CBI and the NCAA Tournament of course. I don't know that I will bet on all the games because you have to be selective to be successful in sports betting and after 7-8 years of handicapping I am finally starting to learn that.

I am so happy to have March finally come strolling around. I needed this month to show up. Time to turn things around big time. Okay so we are in the home stretch of the college basketball season and I am no satisfied with my results. I have not been able to go on any kind of streak and have not been all that helpful to anyone who visits my threads. My solution to this is to go back to my old school capping ways that made me more than 40k on the season in the NFL. I have tried too hard to mess around with systems, PS3 plays and all sorts of bullshit that I have sorta lost my way a bit.

So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.

1 unit = $100


You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!

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Wednesday, March 25


NIT Tournament - Quarterfinals


View attachment 6770 Kentucky Wildcats +2.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6771

The Kentucky Wildcats are really pulling out all the stops in this NIT Tournament and anyone who watched their second round game against the #1 seed Creighton knows that these guys are the real deal. Not only did they manage to win in one hell of a hostile environment as Bluejays fans were at their most annoying status possible but they did it without the services of one of their best players Patrick Patterson who sat out most of the game with foul problems. This team looks like it is destined. Kentucky comes into this game averaging 74.3 points per game on the season and they have done that by shooting 48.1% from the floor in those games. Notre Dame's defense has been solid for the most part of the season but the Irish have allowed 70.7 points per game this season which is above the NCAA average and that does concern me a bit against a Wildcats team that can really score some points. Kentucky is not a big three point shooting team as they attempt only 16.0 three point shots per game this season but they do make 34.9% of those three pointers (above NCAA average) and the Irish do have some opening in their perimeter defense as their opponents have made 6.3 three point shots per game this season. We saw how well Kentucky can move the ball and how much penetration they get in the zone as the Wildcats love to take the ball inside and attack the basket. They have been to the free throw line 21.9 times per game this season and are a very good free throw shooting team that has made 77.3% of their free throws on the season. The Irish have done a good job defending the interior and I don't know that Kentucky can go inside too many times in this game but having said Meeks can make shots from pretty much anywhere so it's not that big of a deal if the interior is not open. If you are going to be Notre Dame you better be tough and the Wildcats are tough believe me. They average 34.2 rebounds per game this season and they are going up against a Notre Dame team that has struggled all season to contain their opponents on the boards as they have allowed their opponents to bring down 35.3 rebounds per game this season and allowed those opponents to grab 10.4 offensive rebounds per game. The more chances you give Kentucky the more they are going to make you pay for it with a guy like Meeks running the floor and a guy like Patterson working up front. The Wildcats are so aggressive offensively that they do turn the ball over quite a few times per game and that is probably why they are in the NIT and not the NCAA's right now but having said that their guard play is still above average despite the turnovers and Meeks and the boys average 15.8 assists per game this season. I think the Kentucky offense is going to give Notre Dame problems all game long because the Irish have had problems containing good ball moving guards all season allowing 13.7 assists per game this season and the Irish have not forced enough turnovers (not aggressive enough in their defensive sets where they just sit) this season to bother the Wildcats. Notre Dame has forced a paltry 10.0 turnovers per game this season and average only 5.1 steals per game. They also average only 2.6 blocks per game on the season so I think Patterson and Meeks are going to have an easier time scoring than we think. The Wildcats showed great poise in their road win at Creighton on Monday and all that would be a waste if they didn't show up for this game. Some call it a disadvantage that they have to play two games in three days but if anything they carry momentum and adrenaline and that should be enough to beat the Irish here.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish came into the season with TOP 10 ranking accolades and we all know where they went. Much like Baylor this team was supposed to be contending for the NCAA Championship in March but both teams missed the Big Dance and both teams ended up in this NIT Tournament instead. Nobody questions the talen on this squad but their road to the quarterfinals has been vanilla at best as they beat UAB and New Mexico at home to make it here and neither one of those teams had a difference maker like Jodie Meeks on their squad. The Irish come into this game averaging only 67.4 points per game in their last five games and they have not been shooting the ball well from the floor if you have been watching, making only 40.6% of their shots in those games. Well that kind of shooting is not going to work against Kentucky as the Wildcats are very solid defensively and they have allowed only 61.6 points per game in their last five games and their last five opponents are shooting only 39.5% from the floor and the Wildcats are where they are because of their defensive prowness. It's not a secret that Notre Dame loves to unload on teams from three point range and they have shot the ball very well from three point land in those games and if you watched the Creighton-Kentucky game you will know that Kentucky's perimeter defense is not all that great but to be honest with you guys, that's all they really give up...three point shots. Notre Dame will only win this game if they can hit three pointer after three pointer because their interior game sucks and the Irish have been to the free throw line only 17.2 times per game in their last five games. No matter how much they try and go to their big man inside, the Kentucky pressure will be too much to handle as the Wildcats last five opponents went to the free throw line only 15.2 times per game and Kentucky just doesn't allow much on the inside so again unless Notre Dame can do better than their 40.2% shooting from the floor in their last five games, they are going to have problems keeping up with Kentucky. Notre Dame grabs quite a few rebounds per game but they are not a solid rebounding team I can tell you that right now as they have brought down only 6.2 offensive rebounds per game in their last five games and have to go up against a Kentucky defense that has allowed their last five opponents to bring down only 28.0 rebounds per game. Again, Notre Dame's success in this game depends on the amount of three point shots they make. Sure their guard play has been outstanding the last five games, they have moved the ball around with some authority and have not turned it over all that much but as much as they expect Kentucky to come out and press them all over the court, the Wildcats have stayed away from that in recent games because it was costing them too much on the defensive side of things. Having said that Kentucky still forces 12.8 turnovers per game and they still average 6.4 steals per game and I think if they can continue to shut down action in the paint, nobody is going to beat them by just making shots from three point range. The Wildcats have a huge interior presence as they block more than 6.0 shots per game this season and 4.8 in their last five games and Notre Dame has just not played well enough for me to consider backing them. Again this goes back to how they shoot the ball tonight and the Irish have been horrendous with their shooting in the last five games. Fade them.

The last time these two teams met was back in 2004 when Kentucky walked into this place and came out of here with an 8 point road win but nobody is back on either side of the ball for these teams tonight and I think it's important to point out that Kentucky is 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS all-time versus Notre Dame having never lost to them. Kentucky is very capable of running the table in this tournament if their starts are on their game and I think they will have some serious momentum coming into this one off that win at Creighton Monday. Kentucky has been very good in non-conference games going 4-0 ATS in their last four and they have always had an easy time playing against Big East Conference opponents going 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games versus opponents from that conference. The reason for that is because they have a combination of toughness inside and great shooters from the outside which means they can always ball with these diverse teams from the Big East. Please do not trust your money with Notre Dame in this game. They are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, they have covered only 6 of their last 20 games overall and are only 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games versus a team that has a straight up winning record on the season. Also, they are a pathetic 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games versus opponents from the SEC Conference and they don't seem to match up well against these teams. The Irish are also 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games that follow a straight up win the game before and are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 0.5 to 6.5 points. I just think a loss tonight would be fitting for the Irish and the way their season has gone.

Trend of the Game: Kentucky is 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games versus Big East Conference opponents.


Kentucky 73, Notre Dame 71




More selections to come...
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[thegodfather512]

great writeup.. makes me rethink Notre Dame.. Good Luck

 

[MistaFlava]

CBI Tournament - Semifinals


View attachment 6773 Texas El-Paso Miners pk (10 Units) View attachment 6772

The UTEP Miners are not a team anyone really knows anything about but believe it or not I have watched them play a few times this season late at night on some of those weird dish channels and this is an interesting bunch of guys. Stefon Jackson is their star player and that is one of the reason I have watched them play because this kid is downright sick, he scores about 24 points per game and is going to be in the upcoming 2009 NBA Draft as a guy who potential to go late first round if not early second round. This is a team of pure scorers, they love to run the floor and they have some big guys to make them dangerous inside. UTEP comes into this game averaging a whopping 78.0 points per game in their last five games and they have managed to shoot 44.8% from the floor in those games which is decent. I can tell you right now that Richmond's defense is not that good despite the fact that in their last five games they have allowed 66.8 points per game and allowed their opponents in those games to shoot 44.6% from the floor. The Miners have some good three point shooters (Jackson is surprisingly not one of them) and they have made 35.4% of their three point shots in their last five games and have made 6.8 three point shots per game in those games (both above the NCAA average for those games). If anything Richmond's perimeter defense has been solid their last five games and I think UTEP will run many plays that call for perimeter shooting in this game. The idea here is to attack the basket and drive to the lanes the way they have done all season. The Miners come into this game averaging 23.4 trips to the free throw line in their last five games, they have made 70.1% of their free throws per game in those games and Richmond is going to struggle defensively tongiht as their interior defense is weak, they have a tough time handling teams with big players up front and their last five opponents have been to the free throw line 21.2 times per game which is enough for Jackson to go to work in his little area there. The Miners can dominate this game inside because they have a huge edge in size and I really don't see how Richmond can handle their inside toughness. UTEP has brought down a whopping 34.8 rebounds per game in their last five games and they have come up with 10.0 offensive rebounds per game in those games. Richmond is a horrendous rebounding team, they get killed all the time by good rebounding teams and they have allowed their last five opponents to bring down a disgusting 36.8 rebounds per game and allowed 12.4 offensive rebounds against per game in those games. The guard play on this team has been tremendous as they have averaged 14.0 assists per game in their last five games and have turned the ball over only 11.4 times per game in those games. You need good guard play against this Richmond team because they are very aggressive defensively and the love picking pockets. Having said that, the Spiders allow way too much ball rotation outside to inside and vice versa and it's too easy to penetrate the paint against this team as they have allowed 13.2 assists against per game in their last five games and I think Stefon Jackson is going to have one hell of a time running around this zone, getting some open looks and getting some nice feeds on the perimeter that he takes in for easy scores. This guy is a pure scorer and Richmond does not have enough of an inside presence to both the Miners offense as they average only 2.4 blocks per game in their last five games and I think the Spiders struggle big time on the defensive end of things in this game. UTEP is a good team and nobody is on them here because none of you have ever seen them play.

The Richmond Spiders seem to be the popular play tonight as I see a bunch of cappers taking them just like that. Good on you guys because I am goign the other way and I just don't see how Richmond can handle the speed, the quickness and the inside toughness of this UTEP team that did quite well this season in non-conference play. From what I have seen of Richmond this season I know they can score some points and I know they are a decent home team but having said that they come into this game scoring 71.6 points per game in their last five games while shooting 45.8% from the floor which is good but probably not enough to keep up with a Miners team that is going to want to run the floor and score bucket after bucket. The only problem with Richmond keeping up in this game is that the Miners are just as effective defensively having allowed 70.8 points per game in their last five games but holding those five opponents to only 40.5% shooting from the floor in those games which is a problem for the Spiders. Despite not taking all that many shots per game from three point range the Spiders have been on fire in their last five games from beyond the arc and that is the only thing that might keep this game close because UTEP plays at such a fast pace of play that recent opponents have pretty much just run up and down the court and jacked up uncontested three point shots. Having said that their last five opponents have made only 34.0% of their three point shots in those games. Much like UTEP the Spiders love to work the ball inside and they love to get some action going in the paint and they will probably have some success doing that against this Miners defense that allows inside action but doesn't allow anything from the mid-range. However, the Spiders have made only 68.5% of their free throws in their last five games and that could be huge down the stretch of this game. Where I see the Spiders having serious problems in this game is on the boards where they are struggling big time to bring rebounds down and UTEP is one of the best rebounding teams in this tournament so you can see where this is going. Richmond averages only 25.4 rebounds per game in their last five games and average only 6.4 offensive rebounds per game in those games (the NCAA averages are 30.8 and 9.4 respectively for those categories) which puts them well below the NCAA averages. If you can't rebound against UTEP they are going to put you away with second chance points and that is no secret because their big guys up front do a great job of cleaning up on the boards and Richmond's inability to protect their own basket and to come up with second chance points of their own is eventually going to catch up to them and I see it being a big problem in this game tonight. The Spiders have decent guard play as in they don't turn the ball over much but I am not a big fan of their ball moving skills because most of their offensive sets take too much time to develop and in a game that is going to be frantic on both sides of the court, that kind of guard play just doesn't cut it and neither do the 12.0 assists per game this season team is averaging in their last five games. The Miners are very aggressive defensively as they have forced 7.0 steals per game in their last five games, they don't allow much transition from outside to inside and they do a good job holding opponents to perimeter ball movement that often results in a bad shot from the mid-range. Add the rebounding edge for UTEP and the only way Richmond can win this game is if they find a way to shoot 50% or better from the floor, something I just don't see happening in this game. Not this time Richmond.

I'm pretty sure most of you are not aware that UTEP beat St. Mary's by 12 in a pre-season tournament, they lost to Wake Forest by only 3 points the next day, they beat Texas Tech by 18 points and they are one of the only Conference USA teams that managed to cover the spread against Memphis this season. The Miners ran into some tough luck in their conference tournament losing to Houston in overtime of the opening round but the only teams they lost to are the teams that can play solid defense and run them out of the gym. Other than that UTEP has been damn good this season. You can't compare Charleston and UTEP because at least the Miners know a thing or two about playing defense. UTEP comes into this game 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games and like I said before teams tend to underestimate these guys. The Miners are 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a straight up winning record and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. I like the way they have played on the road against good teams as they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games versus a team with a winning home record on the season. Richmond has also been a good ATS wager the second half of the season but I don't like this matchup at all for them tonight and I think UTEP comes in here and kicks some serious ass in this game. Bank that!

Trend of the Game: Texas El-Paso is 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.


Texas El-Paso 81, Richmond 69




More selections to come...
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[HTFDC102]

Hate Notre Shame they fucked me everytime I bet with or against them this year, but I gotta go with Mista and hope they don't screw us again...gl

 

[reruns]

good thing i went small on these two games. seems like you did a little research. i just didn't like the way kentucky played last game against creighton. they did just enough at the end of the game to win and cover. UK is not nearly as good as when they had tubby smith at the helm. anyway, i took ND -2.5 and UTEP i'm with you on the pick'em. good luck

 

[jbragg10]

I hope you are right about UK, but I don't see it happening. No play for me

 

[JWinner17]

Notre Dame is good at home... Don't see UK winning... BOL FLAVA!!!

 

[bigtendominator]

Notre Dame is good at home... Don't see UK winning... BOL FLAVA!!!

Have to agree. I took ND -2.5.

Irish have been very stong the past couple seasons at home. They were down a little bit this season, but still feel they get a solid victory.

 

[KirbyZhang]

I have faith in you Flava. I'm putting all my money on UK.

 

[MistaFlava]

NIT Tournament - Quarterfinals


View attachment 6775 San Diego State Aztecs -3.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6774

The St. Mary's Gaels got the best of me on Monday night when they spanked the living crap out of Davidson but I think the game was a lot closer than it appeared and too many people are getting excited about the way these guys played in that game. I mean sure it looked like they were unstoppable and all but the reality is that most of that energy came from the home crowd who did a great job harassing Davidson all night and who really helped pump this Gaels team up to the point where they went on that one big run in the second half and never looked back. Believe me the crowd had a huge impact in that game and believe me St. Mary's is tired from that war with the Wildcats (and now they have to play a team that is very well rested). St. Mary's comes into this game averaging 72.4 points per game in their last five games and they have managed to do that by shooting only 41.9% from the floor in those games which means the minute they run into a hot defense, the season is done for these guys. Well tonight is the night. San Diego State has allowed only 54.4 points per game in their last five games and have allowed those teams to shoot only 36.6% from the floor in those games. WOW now that is some defense. As many shots as they've taken from three point range in their last five games, the Gaels are making only 31.6% of their shots from beyond the arc and they average only 6.0 three pointers made per game. Well good luck even knocking down half of that tonight against one of the best perimeter defenses left in all tournament action right now as the Aztecs have allowed their last five opponents to make only 18.2% of their three point shots the last five games and have allowed only 3.2 three point shots made per game in those games. The Gaels had a lot of calls go their way the other night and they have gone to the free throw line 21.8 times per game in their last five games which is a good indication that they can attack the hoop and do some damage in the lanes. That is pretty much their only hope tonight even though San Diego State has allowed their last five opponents to go to the line only 19.6 times per game in those games. I also noticed in the game on Monday Night that St. Mary's is a very good rebounding team and that it's tough to get second chances under the basket against this team. Having said that, San Diego State has done a very good job holding opponents off in their last five games as they have allowed only 29.6 rebounds per game in those games and as long as they don't allow St. Mary's to grab too many offensive boards, the Aztecs are going to frustrate the Gaels to the point where they are over-aggressive under the basket and are going to start getting called for over the backs on the offensive side of things. Despite the good play of Patrick Mills on Monday the Gaels offense still has some flaws if you ask me. I mean they average only 11.6 assists per game in their last five games and their ball movement is not consistent enough to break down this type of defense. The only way to break this hardcore zone of San Diego State is to have guards who can really work around the zone and find the openings in the middle but again St. Mary's is going to struggle against these guys. San Diego State has allowed their last five opponents to average only 7.8 assists per game which is incredible and they have managed to grab 7.0 steals per game in those games. St. Mary's is going to be running on fumes in this game and the defensive pressure of the Aztecs is no doubt going to bother these guys. I'll be the first to admit that St. Mary's looked damn good in their game against Davidson but the line for this game seems to be drawing a lot of attention to the Gaels and I just don't think they can live up to the hype away from that home crowd that gave them that much energy and momentum in their Monday night game. Not the right spot for St. Mary's coming off that tough game.

The San Diego State Aztecs don't get much respect from bettors and that is evident in the amount of people who have gone against them tonight but please consider this. While St. Mary's is coming in off a very tough game against Davidson that had them running up and down the court all game long, the Aztecs have been sitting around at home, relaxing and preparing for what should be one of their toughest games this season. Please focus on that word relaxed and ready to play tonight because at this point in the tournament some tough games can take a lot out of team and although I defended Kentucky and their ability to play on one days rest, I just think it's much tougher for a team when they have to play against a very good defense (Notre Dame doesn't qualify). San Diego State comes into this game averaging 68.3 points per game at home this season and in those games they have managed to shoot 45.7% from the floor which is good for their style of play. I can tell you right now that much like St. Mary's the Aztecs are not a good three point shooting team nor have they been all season long. Having said that, I can see them making their fair share of long bombs in this game against a St. Mary's defense that has allowed their road opponents to make 34.2% of their three point shots this season and that could work to the advantage of the Aztecs as they do attempt 17.2 three pointers per home game. What you have to understand is that patience is needed with this San Diego State offense because they take time to set things up and they are very technical with each and every offensive possession. They don't get to the free throw line all that much per home game this season (however 18.6 times per home game is good for this type of slower moving offense) and regardless St. Mary's interior defense has done a good job keeping opponents outside the paint and forcing shots from the mid-range. I talked about rebounding earlier and mentioned that St. Mary's obviously has the edge because of their size and because of their depth at the big positions. Having said that you guys are going to be surprised at how tough San Diego State is on the offensive boards as they have brought down 11.3 offensive rebounds per home game this season despite averaging only 30.8 rebounds per game in those games and St. Mary's is going to be challenged a lot on the boards in this one. With tired legs on their side, the Gaels will obviously not have the same kind of hop in their step had they had a 3-4 day layoff like San Diego State had and that could actually be the difference in this game tonight. Anyone who watched St. Mary's defense against Davidson knows that they have somer serious issues to deal with and that had it not been for a ton of missed open shots by the Wildcats, we might be talking about Stephen Curry and how he would play against this defense. The Aztecs offense is very simple yet very effective as they average 13.0 assists per home game this season and have turned the ball over only 12.0 times per game in those games. Now I talked about St. Mary's not forcing enough turnovers per game this season and I really thought Davidson would take advantage of that (they did in the first half) and keep the game close. Well San Diego State is a lot more effective offensively than Davidson and I think they can exploit the fact that the Gaels have forced only 9.7 turnovers per road game this season (NCAA average is 13.7 per game) and the fact that they have only 4.6 steals per game in those away games. This is a very well coached San Diego State team and I think they have come a very long way since losing to this same St. Mary's team very early in the 2008-2009 season. This is a home revenge spot for these guys and believe me when I say that they have been studying game tape for quite some time now anticipating St. Mary's to be the team that comes through here for a spot in the semifinals of this tournament. We see the best of San Diego State tonight.

Alright so by now you all know that these two teams have already played each other once this season and that St. Mary's came in here on December 13 as a -3 point road favorite and ended up winning the game by exactly that...three points. However please consider how different the situation is this time around as the Aztecs are playing with nothing more than revenge on their minds in this game, they are playing at home yet again and they are the better rested team of the two. I mean you don't just spank Weber State by 16 points and then spank Kansas State by 18 points (both at home) only to not show up for a game where you are seeking revenge. I think what most bettors are underestimating is this team's ability to compete with some of the big name schools. I won't lie when I say that St. Mary's has been cash money against non-conference opponents in recent years. But I am also not lying when I tell you that the Gaels are only 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog, they are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games that follow three or more consecutive home games, they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points, they are only 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog and most importantly of all...they are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games overall. San Diego State is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games, they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus a team that has a straight up winning record on the season, they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games versus West Coast Conference opponents and they have covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 home games as a favorite. Need I say more? St. Mary's has not played well on the road all season, they are tired and vulnerable and I think they go down in flames tonight.

Trend of the Game: St. Mary's is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games as an underdog.


San Diego State 71, St. Mary's 62




More selections to come...
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[PIPE_TYSON]

is this line right? kentucky off back to back traveling and only getting 3 points? kentucky should be money!

 

[bigdaveyt]

good thing i went small on these two games. seems like you did a little research. i just didn't like the way kentucky played last game against creighton. they did just enough at the end of the game to win and cover. UK is not nearly as good as when they had tubby smith at the helm. anyway, i took ND -2.5 and UTEP i'm with you on the pick'em. good luck

Gotta agree that Kentucky probably shouldn't have even won that game. I caught bits and pieces of the game while at the gym and it was back and forth the whole time. After Meeks turned it over (and fouled) with 37 secs to go, I thought I was done. Thank God for the poor FT shooting by Carter of Creighton!

Real hard fought win. I just don't think they can keep it close with ND (who seems like they really want to win this tourney).

BOL TO ALL IN YOUR BETS!

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I do love the UTEP bet and will be taking it. UTEP was up by 14 points with 41 secs to go and blew the cover (-9 for me), but pushed.

 

[MistaFlava]

CBI Tournament - Semifinals


View attachment 6777 Oregon State Beavers +3 (10 Units) View attachment 6776

The Stanford Cardinal made me some big time cash in this tournament. I will say it right now. I was on them big against Wichita State and they played what was probably their best game of the entire season in a huge road win against a pretty damn good home team. I was also on them, ironically enough, in the PAC 10 Tournament when they played against this very same Oregon State team on a neutral as a -7 and came back from down at the half to win that game by eight points. Take away the neutral court advantage of that game and put them in a tough place to play and I don't think Stanford is the same team at all. This is conference play again, no more non-conference opponents. The Cardinal come into this game averaging 70.4 points per away game this season and they have managed to do that by shooting a decent 45.4% from the floor in those games. However, Oregon State's defense always seems to get the job done at home in recent weeks as they have allowed only 60.4 points per home game this season and have allowed those visiting opponents to make only 43.8% of their shots from the floor. Vermont and Houston (both high scoring teams) tried to win here in this tournament with no luck whatsoever. The Cardinal have shot the lights out from three point range on the road this season and they are very dangerous against teams who cannot guard the perimeter. Having said that, Oregon State's home opponents this season have shot only 33.2% from three point range and the Beavers have done a good enough job to keep opponents close in games. Now Stanford is the kind of team that is very perimeter oriented but they do also have some guys who love to work inside and drive to the hoop despite getting to the line only 19.2 times per road game this season. Well I can tell you right now that Oregon State, despite not being all that good a team, have one of the most efficient interior defenses in college basketball as their home opponents this season have been to the free throw line only 12.9 times per game this season and that makes it impossible for teams to establish themselves inside so the only way to beat the Beavers is to unload on them from the outside. That's reason they have kept games close at home because teams cannot consistently make their three point shots and even though they go down every game, the Beavers always a chance to get back into the game by forcing outside shots. We all know that PAC 10 Conference teams don't rebound much because of the pace of play in this conference but Stanford is really not effective on the glass bringing down only 27.4 rebounds per away game this season on only 8.1 offensive rebounds per game. That won't work against a Beavers team that has held their home opponents to 26.5 rebounds per game this season on only 8.3 offensive rebounds per game. I don't know what to think of Stanford's transition game on the road this season because they have been effective and above NCAA average but they average only 13.4 assists per road game and that might not be enough against this pressure defense of the Beavers. Oregon State has forced 13.6 turnovers per home game this season and average a whopping 8.1 steals per home game this season. I think this is going to be enough to both Stanford and force them into a bunch of mistakes. The Cardinal have had to do a lot of traveling the last few days as they played in Wichita on Monday and had to fly back to the Western Time Zone in time for this game less than 48 hours later. That is not easy to do at all and having to play against this kind of Oregon State defense is going to be even more frustrating for this team. Combine that with the fact that the Beavers don't allow much transition in the paint and you have a recipe for disaster if Stanford cannot make their outside shots in this game. With heavy legs from the place travel I think the Cardinal are in big trouble tonight and I think this is where their season comes to an end.

The Oregon State Beavers have to have impressed some of you by now. This is my third time backing them in this CBI Tournament and do you not think by now I am onto something having gone 1-0-1 ATS in both those games (with the second one against Vermont a virtual win but I had a bad line) and I just feel that these guys have really come around this tournament and played some good basketball. The Beavers beat two high flying teams so far (Houston and Vermont, both at home) and I don't see why a familiar foe like Stanford would be much of a problem for these guys. They have fallen behind in both games so far, fought their way back against very good offenses because of their defense and the same should happen tonight should they go down early. The Beavers come into this game averaging only 60.8 points per home game this season but that is their style of play and they showed against Vermont that they can be scorers too. In those home games this Oregon State team shoots a very nice 46.2% from the floor and that is going to be a problem for this Stanford defense that is nowhere near as good as Vermont's defense or Houston's defense for that matter. The Cardinal have allowed 72.5 points per away game this season and their road opponents have shot 46.9% from the floor in those games. OUCH! Oregon State doesn't do much on offense but they have a good inside-outside balance as they make 34.7% of their shot from three point range at home this season and make 6.3 three point shots per game in those games. Stanford needs to worry about that because although they do a good job of forcing teams inside against them, their road opponents have made 38.3% of their three point shots per game this season and if the Beavers get some confidence early in this one, they could for once be the team that leads for the most part of the game. I also think Oregon State can open things up in the paint tonight seeing how Stanford has a weak interior defense and seeing how their road opponents this season have been to the free throw line 21.7 times per game. The Beavers don't get to the free throw line much per home game but that's because of their slow pace of play and the length it takes for them to develop offensive sets. I talked about rebounding being an issue tonight because with both defenses stepping up in recent games I expect a lot of balls to be hitting iron tonight and the edge goes to the Beavers there. I say that because Stanford has allowed their road opponents this season to bring down a whopping 32.9 rebounds per game and they have allowed those road opponents to average 10.6 offensive rebounds per game in those games. If you are going to give the Beavers even more chances to put rare points on the board they are going to be at a big advantage and like I said before, I think Oregon State is going to be jacked up for this game. For a team that doesn't score much the Beavers have pretty good guard play at home this season as they come into yet another home game averaging 13.6 assists per home game this season. Sure they turn the ball over quite a bit and that has plagued them at times this season when games are on the line. However, Stanford has managed to force only 12.5 turnovers per road game this season and they have come up with only 5.9 steals per game which is just not enough in a game where points in transition and off turnovers are going to be a big deal. The Beavers are a lot more aggressive defensively and if Stanford comes out with that standard defense of theirs, the Beavers are no doubt going to show them up for it. I cannot believe the Beavers are the home underdog in this game with the way they are playing in recent weeks. I don't care what they did in the regular season, this team has shown tremendous heart coming from behind in both tournament games so far to pull off the win against high scoring opponents and they have the luxury of playing at home for the third straight time which means no jet lag whatsoever. Big home win to make the finals of this tournament. The crowd should be rocking as Corvallis is buzzing right now.

Alright so we have two familiar opponents going at it for the fourth time in the same season. FOURTH TIME PLAYING EACH OTHER THIS SEASON! WOW! The first matchup in January saw the Beavers go on the road and spank the Cardinal by 16 points. WTF? The second meeting saw the Beavers control most of their home game against Stanford back in February and bring home a 12 point win in that one. Their third meeting was in the PAC 10 Conference Tournament and the Beavers, who led at the half, completely blew that game late and Stanford won by 8 points but the game was a lot closer than that. So from what I have seen Oregon State does not deserve to be an underdog at home tonight seeing how they have dominated Stanford most of the season and seeing how unlike Stanford, they have not had to travel the last week or so. The Cardinal are coming off a flight from Wichita and their legs might not be there for this game. Stanford comes into this game only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games that follow a straight up win the game before and way too many people are taking the Cardinal based on that win over Wichita State. Oregon State on the other hand is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points. They are 8-1 ATS in their last nine game as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points and they have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. I don't know what has gotten into these guys but the crowd is going to be crazy tonight and as they have done three times this season already, I think Oregon State can dominate Stanford and pull off the win to make it to the finals of this tournament and bring more home games to this crazy Corvallis crowd. Believe me this town is buzzing right now.

Trend of the Game: Oregon State is 7-0 ATS in their last secen games as a home underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points.


Oregon State 68, Stanford 62




:toast:




Alright guys. Nice four game slate tonight. Some interesting picks and it was fun capping these games. My goal is obviously to sweep the board and I think I have the card to do it. I am currently working on my SWEET 16 selections that should all be posted throughout the day tomorrow. I will most likely post all eight selections in one thread. GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!
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[MRPOOPS]

Kentucky getting 3.5 now

 

[HTFDC102]

UTEP now +1.5 shit!!!

 

[ATP]

dont like san diego st, werent u the one that was bashing the mountain west after BYU nd then loaded on arizona to beat up on utah.

 

[KirbyZhang]

UTEP will cover don't worry

 

[chaosman]

thanks mista keep these comign

 

[Paddywack]

I like UTEP, the others look scary. Especially betting against Patty Mills.

 

[C-LO]

Love the plays man, hope you get a sweep and hope that total in the nd game isnt as close as 144 BUT I will take that final