MistaFlava's 2009 NCAA Tournaments Record: 9-1 ATS (+79.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CBB Record: 120-109-4 ATS (+40.80 Units)
Alright so tournament time is here and this is generally where I have most of my success with betting on college basketball. I will be betting on the NIT, the CBI and the NCAA Tournament of course. I don't know that I will bet on all the games because you have to be selective to be successful in sports betting and after 7-8 years of handicapping I am finally starting to learn that.
I am so happy to have March finally come strolling around. I needed this month to show up. Time to turn things around big time. Okay so we are in the home stretch of the college basketball season and I am no satisfied with my results. I have not been able to go on any kind of streak and have not been all that helpful to anyone who visits my threads. My solution to this is to go back to my old school capping ways that made me more than 40k on the season in the NFL. I have tried too hard to mess around with systems, PS3 plays and all sorts of bullshit that I have sorta lost my way a bit.
So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
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Thursday, March 19
NCAATournament - First Round
View attachment 6686 Louisiana State Tigers -2 (10 Units) View attachment 6685
MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CBB Record: 120-109-4 ATS (+40.80 Units)
Alright so tournament time is here and this is generally where I have most of my success with betting on college basketball. I will be betting on the NIT, the CBI and the NCAA Tournament of course. I don't know that I will bet on all the games because you have to be selective to be successful in sports betting and after 7-8 years of handicapping I am finally starting to learn that.
I am so happy to have March finally come strolling around. I needed this month to show up. Time to turn things around big time. Okay so we are in the home stretch of the college basketball season and I am no satisfied with my results. I have not been able to go on any kind of streak and have not been all that helpful to anyone who visits my threads. My solution to this is to go back to my old school capping ways that made me more than 40k on the season in the NFL. I have tried too hard to mess around with systems, PS3 plays and all sorts of bullshit that I have sorta lost my way a bit.
So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
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Thursday, March 19
NCAATournament - First Round
View attachment 6686 Louisiana State Tigers -2 (10 Units) View attachment 6685
The Butler Bulldogs are known for their outstanding play as underdogs and their outstanding play when nobody thinks they can win. That is what will keep the betting reasonable on this game and that is what will have a bunch of people taking Butler thinking they can pull off another one of those upsets. Please understand however that this year's team is nothing like teams of years past. The Bulldogs come into this game averaging 67.0 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done by shooting only 43.7% from the floor. LSU's defense was nothing short of outstanding this past season as they held opponents to only 65.5 points per game and held those same opponents to only 40.4% shooting from the floor in those games. We all know the Bulldogs love to unload from three point range and they are pretty good at it. However, 45.2% of their shot attempts per game are from beyond the arc and LSU's perimeter defense is pretty damn good as their opponents have managed to shoot only 31.1% from three point range this season making only 5.3 three point shots per game on only 17.0 attempts per game. Good perimeter defense takes cares of Butler. The Bulldogs also do a good job getting to the free throw line but I don't know how much success they can have against a solid interior defense that held opponents to only 20.0 free throw attempts per game this season (below the NCAA average for the year). Rebounding is going to be a big problem for Butler if they can't make most of their shots from the outside because this team brings down only 30.8 rebounds per game this season and they bring down only 8.7 offensive rebounds per game in those games (both below the NCAA average for the season). LSU is very solid around their own basket, they have great ball location awareness and the Tigers opponents this season have not had many second chances bringing down only 30.2 rebounds per game and only 9.3 offensive rebounds per game (also both below the NCAA average). The Bulldogs guard play is not what it was a few years ago as they average only 12.8 assists per game this season and they will find it very tough to get some open looks in this game because no matter where they look to pass, LSU will have a defender taking away the passing lanes as the Tigers allowed only 9.3 assists per game this season and moving the ball on these guys to create better looks is next to impossible. Inside the Tigers average a whopping 6.2 blocks per game (almost double the NCAA average) and Butler just doesn't have the shooters this season to sustain enough pressure and long runs in this game to pull ahead. The Tigers are also very dangerous with their 7.2 steals per game this season and those late turnovers are going to be huge. This will be a struggle for the Bulldogs and a rare first round exit.
The Louisiana State Tigers have had an up and down season that saw them dip in and out of the TOP 25 quite a few times but as the season went along, so did this teams growth in terms of maturity and although they did not win the SEC Tournament like many had predicted, all that really did was give them a breather heading into the tournament and now I think these guys are ready to go and they might actually get somewhere this year. The Tigers come into this game averaging a whopping 74.9 points per game and despite not shooting the ball well at all in recent weeks, they have still managed to make 44.6% of their shots from the floor this season and that is pretty damn good considering their game is all about defensive toughness. We are all aware of what Butler can do defensively but that was against a weak crop of opponents this season and LSU is a whole different animal so I don't really care that the Bulldogs allow less than 60 points per game on the year because that really doesn't bother me. Much like the LSU Tigers, Butler had a weak schedule and we don't really know how they will do on the big stage. What I do know however is that despite taking only 27.2% of their shot attempts per game from three point range, LSU has shown on many occasions that they can hit the big one making 36.9% of their three point shots this season which is going to be effective in the late stages of this game when they need a few daggers here and there. The Bulldogs have some decent interior defense but LSU loves getting their hands dirty inside as they have been to the free throw line 21.6 times per game this season and even better is the fact that they have managed to make 71.8% of those free throws so we know they will take advantage of their inside toughness. The x-factor for me in this game is going to be overall team rebounding because LSU brings down a whopping 36.7 rebounds per game and they average 12.0 offensive rebounds per game in those games. That's 5.9 more rebounds per game than Butler and 3.3 more offensive rebounds per game than the Bulldogs. I know Butler has some big guys inside but not big and tough like the Tigers and something tells me LSU is going to have their way on more than one occasion when they decied to move the ball down to the paint and attacking Butler's interior size. The Tigers have tremendous guard play with great ball movement as they average a whopping 15.2 assists per game and have turned the ball over only 12.0 times per game in those games. I know getting good shots and good looks is not easy against the Bulldogs but LSU handles the ball well enough to create some looks and Butler just doesn't force enough turnovers to keep this game level as they average only 12.8 turnovers forced per game this season and average only 6.0 steals per game (both well below the NCAA averages for the season). LSU is a much bigger team, they are much more aggressive defensively and they have the ability to stop runs and go on long runs of their own. I am always going to take the tougher and more efficient ball handling team in a game like this where the odds are fantastic because you basically taking the winner of the game straight up.
Alright so both teams have great defense, both teams played against horrendous opponents this season (strength of schedule for both is ranked outside the TOP 100) and this is their first ever meeting. Some post stats about Butler being lights out as an underdog which is true but that cannot last forever and do you guys really see this LSU team (which has been more consistent this season) going out in the first round of this tournament? I don't. You can post every stat you want about Butler and how they have done as underdogs and those stats are going to be impressive no doubt (think they have covered 21 of their last 26 as underdogs). Having said that, please also post that the Bulldogs are not playing good basketball at all right now, they are looking the worst they have looked in a good three or four years and they are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. Butler is also 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a straight up winning record which indicates they have been beating up all season on losing teams and the Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games that follow a straight up loss the game before. LSU is coming off a disgusting loss to Mississippi State in the Conference Tournament and I would much rather them lose by 10 coming into this than having won the tournament because they are going to come in here with fire in their game and that should help a team that has traditionally sucked as a favorite in the NCAA Tournament despite covering a bunch of games lately when playing on a Thursday. I am going with the Tigers here because of their inside toughness and ability to move the ball.
Trend of the Game: Butler is 1-4 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up loss.
LSU 67, Butler 59
More selections to come...
The Louisiana State Tigers have had an up and down season that saw them dip in and out of the TOP 25 quite a few times but as the season went along, so did this teams growth in terms of maturity and although they did not win the SEC Tournament like many had predicted, all that really did was give them a breather heading into the tournament and now I think these guys are ready to go and they might actually get somewhere this year. The Tigers come into this game averaging a whopping 74.9 points per game and despite not shooting the ball well at all in recent weeks, they have still managed to make 44.6% of their shots from the floor this season and that is pretty damn good considering their game is all about defensive toughness. We are all aware of what Butler can do defensively but that was against a weak crop of opponents this season and LSU is a whole different animal so I don't really care that the Bulldogs allow less than 60 points per game on the year because that really doesn't bother me. Much like the LSU Tigers, Butler had a weak schedule and we don't really know how they will do on the big stage. What I do know however is that despite taking only 27.2% of their shot attempts per game from three point range, LSU has shown on many occasions that they can hit the big one making 36.9% of their three point shots this season which is going to be effective in the late stages of this game when they need a few daggers here and there. The Bulldogs have some decent interior defense but LSU loves getting their hands dirty inside as they have been to the free throw line 21.6 times per game this season and even better is the fact that they have managed to make 71.8% of those free throws so we know they will take advantage of their inside toughness. The x-factor for me in this game is going to be overall team rebounding because LSU brings down a whopping 36.7 rebounds per game and they average 12.0 offensive rebounds per game in those games. That's 5.9 more rebounds per game than Butler and 3.3 more offensive rebounds per game than the Bulldogs. I know Butler has some big guys inside but not big and tough like the Tigers and something tells me LSU is going to have their way on more than one occasion when they decied to move the ball down to the paint and attacking Butler's interior size. The Tigers have tremendous guard play with great ball movement as they average a whopping 15.2 assists per game and have turned the ball over only 12.0 times per game in those games. I know getting good shots and good looks is not easy against the Bulldogs but LSU handles the ball well enough to create some looks and Butler just doesn't force enough turnovers to keep this game level as they average only 12.8 turnovers forced per game this season and average only 6.0 steals per game (both well below the NCAA averages for the season). LSU is a much bigger team, they are much more aggressive defensively and they have the ability to stop runs and go on long runs of their own. I am always going to take the tougher and more efficient ball handling team in a game like this where the odds are fantastic because you basically taking the winner of the game straight up.
Alright so both teams have great defense, both teams played against horrendous opponents this season (strength of schedule for both is ranked outside the TOP 100) and this is their first ever meeting. Some post stats about Butler being lights out as an underdog which is true but that cannot last forever and do you guys really see this LSU team (which has been more consistent this season) going out in the first round of this tournament? I don't. You can post every stat you want about Butler and how they have done as underdogs and those stats are going to be impressive no doubt (think they have covered 21 of their last 26 as underdogs). Having said that, please also post that the Bulldogs are not playing good basketball at all right now, they are looking the worst they have looked in a good three or four years and they are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. Butler is also 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a straight up winning record which indicates they have been beating up all season on losing teams and the Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games that follow a straight up loss the game before. LSU is coming off a disgusting loss to Mississippi State in the Conference Tournament and I would much rather them lose by 10 coming into this than having won the tournament because they are going to come in here with fire in their game and that should help a team that has traditionally sucked as a favorite in the NCAA Tournament despite covering a bunch of games lately when playing on a Thursday. I am going with the Tigers here because of their inside toughness and ability to move the ball.
Trend of the Game: Butler is 1-4 ATS in their last five games coming off a straight up loss.
LSU 67, Butler 59
More selections to come...
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