MistaFlava's 2009 NCAA Tournaments Record: 33-16-1 ATS (+154.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CBB Record: 144-124-4 ATS (+116.80 Units)
Alright so tournament time is here and this is generally where I have most of my success with betting on college basketball. I will be betting on the NIT, the CBI and the NCAA Tournament of course. I don't know that I will bet on all the games because you have to be selective to be successful in sports betting and after 7-8 years of handicapping I am finally starting to learn that.
I am so happy to have March finally come strolling around. I needed this month to show up. Time to turn things around big time. Okay so we are in the home stretch of the college basketball season and I am no satisfied with my results. I have not been able to go on any kind of streak and have not been all that helpful to anyone who visits my threads. My solution to this is to go back to my old school capping ways that made me more than 40k on the season in the NFL. I have tried too hard to mess around with systems, PS3 plays and all sorts of bullshit that I have sorta lost my way a bit.
So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
-------------------------------------------
MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CBB Record: 144-124-4 ATS (+116.80 Units)
Alright so tournament time is here and this is generally where I have most of my success with betting on college basketball. I will be betting on the NIT, the CBI and the NCAA Tournament of course. I don't know that I will bet on all the games because you have to be selective to be successful in sports betting and after 7-8 years of handicapping I am finally starting to learn that.
I am so happy to have March finally come strolling around. I needed this month to show up. Time to turn things around big time. Okay so we are in the home stretch of the college basketball season and I am no satisfied with my results. I have not been able to go on any kind of streak and have not been all that helpful to anyone who visits my threads. My solution to this is to go back to my old school capping ways that made me more than 40k on the season in the NFL. I have tried too hard to mess around with systems, PS3 plays and all sorts of bullshit that I have sorta lost my way a bit.
So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.
1 unit = $100
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!
-------------------------------------------
Thursday, March 26
NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16
View attachment 6779 Purdue Boilermakers +6.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6780
NCAA Tournament - Sweet 16
View attachment 6779 Purdue Boilermakers +6.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6780
The Purdue Boilermakers, and this is maybe the third time I say it now, are the team I picked on this very forum to be a darkhorse with some serious value when the odds to win it all came out a few months ago. I know the odds were shitty but I said this was one of the most complete teams in college basketball and that come March they could very well be breaking some NCAA Tournament hearts if they are healthy. Well this team comes into this game with a full head of steam. You don't just beat the Washington Huskies in Portland, Oregon to come in here and suck. Purdue comes into this game averaging 71.4 points per game on a neutral site this season and they have done that by shooting 42.5% from the floor in those games. Not that great but that's their style of play. Despite allowing their neutral court opponents to shoot only 39.5% from the floor this season, I am a little bit concerned that Connecticut has allowed 74.9 points per neutral court game and that should allow Purdue to run their offensive sets and have success. The Boilermakers are deadly from three point range having made 38.7% of their neutral court shots from beyond the arc this season on 7.9 three point shots made per game in those games. The Huskies have good perimeter defense but teams that can light it up from three point range have the opportunity to make these guys pay because they tend to concetrate a little bit too much on inside coverage as their neutral court opponents have still shot a decent 32.0% from three point range. Purdue is a very good free throw shooting team that has made 75.2% of their neutral court free throws this season and that have been to the free throw line enough times in those games to make me think UConn could run into some problems. No matter who they have roaming around in the paint, the Huskies are still vulnerable against teams that can attack the hoop as they have allowed their neutral court opponents to go to the free throw line 19.9 times per game this season. I don't think it's appropriate to compare any team to UConn when it comes to rebounding because the Huskies always have the edge but Purdue is a very good rebounding team from the Big Ten Conference and they average 32.9 rebounds per game on neutral courts this season and are going up against a Huskies team that has done a good job rebounding but that has also allowed their neutral court opponents to bring down 12.0 offensive rebounds per game and if you give Purdue more than one chance around the basket they usually make you pay for it with their athletisism. You would think a team like the Boilermakers would have average guard play but they have some of the most underrated guard play in the Nation if you ask me. I mean these guys know how to control the floor and they know how to break zones and man coverage. We are talking about a Purdue team that averages 15.7 assists per neutral court game this season and that has turned the ball over only 9.3 times per game in those games. WOW! The times I have seen Connecticut play on a neutral court this season their zone was beatable and teams that could move the ball well had some success against these guys as they have allowed opponents in those games to average 12.4 assists per game and if you are going to give Purdue room to work in transition, they are going to show you why they won the Big Ten Conference tournament this season. I know Connecticut has a lot of size inside and that could be a factor down the stretch in this game but the Boilermakers are very tough themselves on both sides of the ball, their ball movement has been outstanding the times I have seen them play on a neutral court and I think they are a very good matchup for this Huskies team that is good defensively but that will have problems containing the Boilermakers as they have forced only 13.6 turnovers per neutral court game this season and don't forget, Purdue takes tremendous care of the ball at all times. Purdue keeps this close and has a chance to win.
The Connecticut Huskies have been one hell of a wager the first two rounds of this tournament and anyone who bet on them both times is pretty damn happy with what they have done. I mean this is the team everyone doubted as a #1 seed heading into this tournament but they have not disappointed and I was on them against Texas A&M. Well not anymore. Turmoil in the media is starting to creep into the picture here and although I don't think it's that big of a deal, I cannot speak for the players who must have a bit of doubt in their minds heading into this. It has to be a distraction that the school has been accused of cheating in their recruiting methods. Anyways the Huskies come into this game averaging a whopping 78.5 points per game on the season and they have done that by shooting 47.5% from the floor in those games. However, I don't know if they can have the same kind of success against one of the best overall defenses in the Big Ten Conference this season as Purdue has allowed 59.4 points per game this season and they have allowed their opponents on the year to shoot 38.9% from the floor in those games. That is by far the best defense the Huskies have seen in a long time. Surprisingly enough, Connecticut doesn't take many shots from three point range averaging only 13.8 shot attempts from beyond the arc per game this season and they have made only 4.8 three pointers per game in those games. Regardless, Purdue's perimeter defense has been solid on the year allowing opponents to shoot below the NCAA average of 34.2% from three point range and 6.3 three point shots made per game (those are the averages). We all know that UConn's game is to work the ball inside and get things done in the paint where they have Thabeet and Adrian who usually terrorize opponents. Well having said that, the Huskies are a below average free throw shooting team that has made 67.6% of their free throws this season and I think they are going to find it tough to get things going on the inside against a Purdue defense that has a lot of size and that has allowed opponents this season to get to the free throw line only 16.8 times per game. If the Huskies can't get things going inside, they will no doubt find it frustrating early because again they don't shoot much from the perimeter and that has not been a part of their game all season. I don't have to tell you how many rebounds the Huskies have brought down per game this season because they are probably the best rebounding team in the Country by far. However I can tell you that Purdue does a fine job on the boards themselves as they have allowed their opponents this season to bring down only 30.7 rebounds per game and those opponents have brought down only 9.5 offensive rebounds per game in those games (both well below the NCAA average for the season). That gives the Boilermakers a chance if they can make some stops and again I think their inside toughness is going to make it tougher than usual for Connecticut to score in this game. Much like the Boilermakers, and this should be one hell of a guard battle in this game, the Huskies have great ball movement from their guards but the difference between the two teams is that the Purdue guards take good care of the ball while Connecticut's guards are also good with the ball but they turn it over 12.4 times per game on the season and that could be a problem against a Purdue defense that has very good hands and that usually have their bodies in the right place at the right time having forced 14.6 turnovers per game this season and having averaged 7.1 steals per game. If you can force turnovers against this Connecticut team you are going to have success and I just think overall the Huskies don't match up very well with Purdue in this spot. You would think the Huskies could dominate just about anyone they wanted to down low but did you see Purdue take care of business against a very big Washington Huskies team in the second round? I mean the Boilermakers do average 4.8 blocks per game this season and they have been very tough to run away from in games because of their ability to make stops defensively and their ability to score at the other end. All those predictions of the Huskies being the first #1 seed gone are going to become reality tonight. Bank on that please.
I know the Huskies are a team most of you don't want to fade or go against and that is fine because they have been the most impressive #1 seed in this tournament so far and everything seems to be going just fine right? Well that is all about to change. I am telling you right now that those media reports of Connecticut violating recruiting rules is a big deal, the players are thinking about it during practice and the coaches are thinking about it and that will surely hamper their momentum a little bit coming into this game tonight. Even without that I think Purdue has the right core of players to make a game of this and I think we are going to see this thing go back and forth all game long. You cannot forget that Purdue are Big Ten Conference champions and that they are playing some of their best basketball right now. The Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog on a neutral site. They have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog in general and again I think they match up very well with the Huskies in this game tonight. I also have to mention that Purdue is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog and this is where you want to back them. Connecticut on the other hand have been a fantastic wager this NCAA Tournament as I mentioned before. However, they are still only 2-7 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games and all of those games had them as favorites so there is an issue there with Calhoun coaching these guys in the tournament and these guys winning when it matters the most which could mean an early exit for this team tonight. I think the game is going to go back and forth and in the end Purdue is going to be too much for the Huskies to handle and they will come out of here with a shocking win. This is a hot team you do not want to go against right now and they showed you why in Portland on the weekend.
Trend of the Game: Purdue is 5-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points.
Purdue 72, Connecticut 71
More selections to come...
The Connecticut Huskies have been one hell of a wager the first two rounds of this tournament and anyone who bet on them both times is pretty damn happy with what they have done. I mean this is the team everyone doubted as a #1 seed heading into this tournament but they have not disappointed and I was on them against Texas A&M. Well not anymore. Turmoil in the media is starting to creep into the picture here and although I don't think it's that big of a deal, I cannot speak for the players who must have a bit of doubt in their minds heading into this. It has to be a distraction that the school has been accused of cheating in their recruiting methods. Anyways the Huskies come into this game averaging a whopping 78.5 points per game on the season and they have done that by shooting 47.5% from the floor in those games. However, I don't know if they can have the same kind of success against one of the best overall defenses in the Big Ten Conference this season as Purdue has allowed 59.4 points per game this season and they have allowed their opponents on the year to shoot 38.9% from the floor in those games. That is by far the best defense the Huskies have seen in a long time. Surprisingly enough, Connecticut doesn't take many shots from three point range averaging only 13.8 shot attempts from beyond the arc per game this season and they have made only 4.8 three pointers per game in those games. Regardless, Purdue's perimeter defense has been solid on the year allowing opponents to shoot below the NCAA average of 34.2% from three point range and 6.3 three point shots made per game (those are the averages). We all know that UConn's game is to work the ball inside and get things done in the paint where they have Thabeet and Adrian who usually terrorize opponents. Well having said that, the Huskies are a below average free throw shooting team that has made 67.6% of their free throws this season and I think they are going to find it tough to get things going on the inside against a Purdue defense that has a lot of size and that has allowed opponents this season to get to the free throw line only 16.8 times per game. If the Huskies can't get things going inside, they will no doubt find it frustrating early because again they don't shoot much from the perimeter and that has not been a part of their game all season. I don't have to tell you how many rebounds the Huskies have brought down per game this season because they are probably the best rebounding team in the Country by far. However I can tell you that Purdue does a fine job on the boards themselves as they have allowed their opponents this season to bring down only 30.7 rebounds per game and those opponents have brought down only 9.5 offensive rebounds per game in those games (both well below the NCAA average for the season). That gives the Boilermakers a chance if they can make some stops and again I think their inside toughness is going to make it tougher than usual for Connecticut to score in this game. Much like the Boilermakers, and this should be one hell of a guard battle in this game, the Huskies have great ball movement from their guards but the difference between the two teams is that the Purdue guards take good care of the ball while Connecticut's guards are also good with the ball but they turn it over 12.4 times per game on the season and that could be a problem against a Purdue defense that has very good hands and that usually have their bodies in the right place at the right time having forced 14.6 turnovers per game this season and having averaged 7.1 steals per game. If you can force turnovers against this Connecticut team you are going to have success and I just think overall the Huskies don't match up very well with Purdue in this spot. You would think the Huskies could dominate just about anyone they wanted to down low but did you see Purdue take care of business against a very big Washington Huskies team in the second round? I mean the Boilermakers do average 4.8 blocks per game this season and they have been very tough to run away from in games because of their ability to make stops defensively and their ability to score at the other end. All those predictions of the Huskies being the first #1 seed gone are going to become reality tonight. Bank on that please.
I know the Huskies are a team most of you don't want to fade or go against and that is fine because they have been the most impressive #1 seed in this tournament so far and everything seems to be going just fine right? Well that is all about to change. I am telling you right now that those media reports of Connecticut violating recruiting rules is a big deal, the players are thinking about it during practice and the coaches are thinking about it and that will surely hamper their momentum a little bit coming into this game tonight. Even without that I think Purdue has the right core of players to make a game of this and I think we are going to see this thing go back and forth all game long. You cannot forget that Purdue are Big Ten Conference champions and that they are playing some of their best basketball right now. The Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog on a neutral site. They have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog in general and again I think they match up very well with the Huskies in this game tonight. I also have to mention that Purdue is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog and this is where you want to back them. Connecticut on the other hand have been a fantastic wager this NCAA Tournament as I mentioned before. However, they are still only 2-7 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games and all of those games had them as favorites so there is an issue there with Calhoun coaching these guys in the tournament and these guys winning when it matters the most which could mean an early exit for this team tonight. I think the game is going to go back and forth and in the end Purdue is going to be too much for the Huskies to handle and they will come out of here with a shocking win. This is a hot team you do not want to go against right now and they showed you why in Portland on the weekend.
Trend of the Game: Purdue is 5-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points.
Purdue 72, Connecticut 71
More selections to come...
Last edited:
