MistaFlava's CBB Tournament Saturday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analsys/20-7 ATS so far)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2009 NCAA Tournaments Record: 20-7 ATS (+123.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CBB Record: 131-115-4 ATS (+84.80 Units)

Alright so tournament time is here and this is generally where I have most of my success with betting on college basketball. I will be betting on the NIT, the CBI and the NCAA Tournament of course. I don't know that I will bet on all the games because you have to be selective to be successful in sports betting and after 7-8 years of handicapping I am finally starting to learn that.

I am so happy to have March finally come strolling around. I needed this month to show up. Time to turn things around big time. Okay so we are in the home stretch of the college basketball season and I am no satisfied with my results. I have not been able to go on any kind of streak and have not been all that helpful to anyone who visits my threads. My solution to this is to go back to my old school capping ways that made me more than 40k on the season in the NFL. I have tried too hard to mess around with systems, PS3 plays and all sorts of bullshit that I have sorta lost my way a bit.

So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.

1 unit = $100


You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!

-------------------------------------------

Saturday, March 21


NIT Tournament - Second Round


View attachment 6723 Baylor Bears +4.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6724

The Baylor Bears are the kind of team I would back everyday of the week in this situation because they are playing this tournament with a purpose unlike a lot of the other teams we have seen come and go in the first round of the NIT Tournament. I am talking about a bunch of guys who were supposed to wreak havoc in the Big 12 Conference this season and who were supposed to be in the NCAA Tournament making some noise right now but they underachieved all regular season and that cost them a chance to compete for the big prize. Having said that, I saw their amazing comeback against Georgetown in the opening round (I was on the Hoyas by the way) and that was enough to have me convinced that they are here to play. I know the game is early but that only means less home fans. Baylor comes into this game averaging 75.3 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done on 46.0% shooting from the floor which is pretty good. We all know Virginia Tech can play some serious defense and that's just fine because despite holding teams to low shooting percentages from the floor, they still allow 70.3 points per game on the year. Baylor is a team that relies pretty heavily on their outside shooting and that's a good thing because they have made 35.7% of their three point shots this season and average a whopping 8.0 three pointers made per game in those games. Virginia Tech could be in trouble as they have allowed an above average 6.9 three point shots made per game this season. The Bears also love attacking the lanes and attacking the hoop as they average 22.1 trips to the free throw line this season and have made 70.5% of their free throws on the year. I think they can have success by being aggressive down low again because Virginia Tech will be concerned with the outside shooting and the Hokies have allowed opponents to get to the line 19.5 times per game this season. I know Baylor is not the best rebounding team in the world because they don't have much size but they stil find a way to hold their own and Virginia Tech is sloppy at times on the glass allowing their opponents this season to bring down an above average 10.0 offensive rebounds per game which should allow Baylor a few second chance points. The reason the Bears have underachieved most of the season is because of their lack of a true ball handling floor general who can control each and every possession. Having said that, Baylor as a team has turned the ball over only 12.6 times per game (below the NCAA average) and that is important in a game like this. Virginia Tech's defense is solid but they don't force many turnovers and in a game that could be decided by ability to score off turnovers, I don't like the fact that they have forced only 12.3 turnovers per game this season on only 6.3 steals per game. The Hokies were lazy defensively in the first round of this tournament and again I really don't know what their motivation to do better in this game would be. Baylor has been getting off to crazy fast starts in recent games and this one should be no different. They have so many offensive weapons on the floor that no matter what the deficit, Baylor can make it up and they will win this game.

The Virginia Tech Hokies are done for the season if you ask me. I have noticed that this team only goes as far as A.D Vassallo wants to take them and that when this guy goes cold or can't shoot, the entire team follows suit and they only do whatever he does. Everyonne keeps talking about the early morning start being a problem for Baylor in this game but that only means that we will see even less Hokies fans in the stands and judging by the level of interest that Virginia Tech showed in their first game of this tournament, I would say now is the time to fade them. The NIT Tournament is getting old to these guys, they were here last year too. Virginia Tech comes into this game averaging 77.6 points per game in their last five games and they are shooting 45.5% from the floor in those games which is not bad. However, the reason Baylor is playing good basketball is because they have found a way to shut things down defensively and they are allowing only 65.6 points per game in their last five games and have allowed only 44.4% shooting from the floor in those games which is impressive. I have seen many teams go to town on Baylor from three point range and that's because their perimeter guarding is not that good but Virginia Tech has been bad from three point range in recent games making only 33.0% of their three point shots in those games on only 5.8 three point shots made per game. The Hokies do most of their scoring inside where they love driving to the basket, drawing fouls and creating chaos in the paint where they shoot very well from the free throw line. However, Baylor's interior defense is finally where it needs to be and they completely shut down teams like Kansas in their conference tournament allowing their last five opponents to average only 14.4 trips to the free throw line per game. This defense has learned to keep everything outside and make bad perimeter teams try and beat you from out there which we should see again today. I talked about Virginia Tech being a good rebounding team and they are but in their last five games they have not been as aggressive on the offensive boards and Baylor has really come around allowing only 27.4 total rebounds against in their last five games and have done a great job protecting their house and not allowing opposing teams to go on sustained runs that put away the game. There is no questioning the guard play of Delaney and company because these guys are great ball handlers and they don't make many mistakes but Baylor is one of those pesky defenses that have 7.6 steals per game in their last five games and that can quickly turn things around by forcing turnovers or forcing bad shots. They also average 3.2 blocks per game in their last five games and I think Baylor is going to frustrate Vassallo by rotating guards on him and coming after him early in this game to put him out of his usualy tempo. Like I said before the Hokies have been good to me at times this season but their energy level could be pretty damn low this morning and anyone who saw that bullshit they presented against Duquesne in the first round of this tournament knows that Virginia Tech is not all that interested in being here in the first place. I think Baylor's energy is going to be too much for these guys and the Bears are going to have success on both ends of the court again.

These two teams have never met before and I think the matchup is going to be an interesting one because Virginia Tech is almost sure to go on runs that either bring them back into the game or put them up by quite a few large margins in this one but having said that, Baylor is a team that has shown many times this season that they can cut any deficit they want and that they have so many offensive weapons that no lead is comfortable against this team. I love the points here and think Baylor is going to be jacked up for this game and for a chance to play a third round game in the NIT Tournament. Baylor comes into this game 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points and they are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points. I know betting on this team when they play on a Saturday has been an asbolute mess the entire season and I know because I was on them quite a few times but this is a tournament and the Bears should have enough energy with the days off in between games. Virginia Tech showed no interest in their first round game of this tournament and you need to know that they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games as a favorite and they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games versus a team that has a losing road record on the season. The Holkies are also only 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite and are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of 0.5 to 6.5 points. This is a great spot to go against the Hokies because Baylor still feels the need to accomplish something with this wasted season and winning the NIT Tournament would do just that for them. The Bears are playing well enough to have me on them here.

Trend of the Game: Virginia Tech is 1-5 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 0.5 to 6.5 points.


Baylor 71, Virginia Tech 69




More selections to come...
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[Paddywack]

Thanks for all the winners yesterday. Your plays got me out of a deep hole. Let's knock em dead today.

 

[Coldweather]

Excellent job. Nice work.

:toast:

 

[docslep]

i'm a little reluctant to bet an 11 am play. sometime teams forget to wake up, and don't play to their true potential, especially a team that is from another time zone (i think it's 10 am in texas) good luck, you are on fire

 

[MistaFlava]

NCAA Tournament - Second Round


View attachment 6725 Villanova Wildcats -2 (10 Units) View attachment 6726

The UCLA Bruins are probably aware that everyone has written them off completely from this tournament and that's just fine with me because I watched their game against VCU the other night and had money on the rams and let me tell you that UCLA's level of energy in that game was horrendous and it seems like this team is giving up on things having to play their games in a city like Philadelphia. They probably don't find it fair and let's just face it guys, this team does not have the same talent they had in tournaments past. Simple as that. The Bruins come into this game averaging 75.7 points per game and they have shot an impressive 49.2% from the floor this season but Villanova played in the very tough Big East Conference and yet they managed to allow only 67.0 points per game this season and managed to hold their opponents to only 40.5% shooting from the floor in those games. The Bruins have unloaded on opponents from three point range all season long and they will continue to take three point shots in this game but that they don't understand is that Villanova is used to that with 41.5% of the shot attempts taken against them this season being from three point range and the Wildcats have held those opponents to 33.8% shooting from beyond the arc. You have to have both inside and outside combinations in terms of scoring options if you want to beat Villanova but UCLA does not have a strong inside game and they have been to the free throw line only 17.2 times per game this season which won't be enough in a game where both benches will have to be used quite a bit. The Bruins average only 30.1 rebounds per game this season and that has been a problem when teams take big leads on them because in the past they had some big guys who could really clean up messes but now they have to face a Villanova team that is tremendous at protecting their own house as they have allowed only 28.6 rebounds against per game (and thats playing in the Big East Conference) and have allowed their opponents to bring down only 8.5 offensive rebounds per game. The Bruins have some of the best guar play in the Nation with Collison running the show but avoiding the Villanova pressure is much easier said than done and Villanova is going to be all over the Bruins in this game as they have forced a whopping 15.1 turnovers per game this season and have an average of 8.0 steals per game. They also block 3.4 shots per game and if UCLA goes cold from the outside, they are going to have no counter for Villanova's offense in this game. The Wildcats are used to teams unloading on them from beyond the arc and that experience is what will have them ready for the Bruins and their very methodic offensive approach that includes a lot of ball movement and some good looks from the floor. Not in this house UCLA.

The Villanova Wildcats are lucky and to some this game smells like fish and to others this game looks too easy. Well let me tell you right now before we consider out tickets already cashed, that this is not going to be a walk in the park for the Wildcats and that despite playing in their virtual home away from home, they are going to have to work for the win in this game. I never like betting on games where 70% of the public or more is on the same team at the same time but how can you not go with Nova in this game? They have played some good enough basketball this season to back them and again this is like their home away from home. The Wildcats come into this game averaging 78.1 points per game away from their home court and in those games they have managed to shoot 44.6% from the floor. I don't know if you UCLA backers know this or not but away from home the Bruins have been a complete disaster this season as they have allowed 69.0 points per away game and have allowed their opponents in those games to shoot a crazy 47.8% from the floor. Villanova is a very good three point shooting team that does not back down from taking deep bombs as they have made 37.1% of their three point shots away from home this season and have made 6.9 three pointers per game in those games. That is a big big problem for UCLA because the Bruins have had problems guarding the perimeter all season long on the road allowing their opponents to shoot 41.7% from three point range in those games and allowed 6.5 three point shots made per game. They have also struggled to defend the interior away from home allowing opponents to get to the free throw line 20.7 times per road game this season and that only means Villanova is going to run the floor and continue attacking the basket over and over again in this game as they have been to the free throw line 23.9 times per away (off their actual home court) game this season and are a very good free throw shooting team making 74.1% of their free throws on the road this season. Rebounding won't even be close in this game as the Wildcats are monsters on the glass averaging a whopping 35.9 rebounds per game away from home this season on 11.9 offensive rebounds per game which means they average 10.6 more rebounds per road game than the UCLA Bruins. That is some relentless attack we are going to see in this game today and as long as the Wildcats can take care of the ball, they are going to win this game big. Their guard have moved the ball around well enough on the road to average 13.9 assists per game while UCLA's perimeter defense has been a disaster and they have allowed 13.2 assists per away game this season. Sure the Bruins are aggressive defensively and that is why they have weak spots but Villanova has turned the ball over only 13.6 times per away game this season and I think their pressure on both ends of the court is going to be too much for UCLA. The Bruins cannot handle the Wildcats inside and outside toughness and there are too many scoring options for the Wildcats in this game. I don't expect a rout like most people around here do but it would be shocking if Villanova lost this game or if the Bruins managed to keep it close at all.

What's funny here is that both of these teams were bounced from their conference tournaments against the eventual champions (USC and Louisville are the reasons these two teams are sitting where they are sitting) and I can tell you right now that UCLA is at a huge disadvantage a) seeing how this game is being played in Philadelphia and b) seeing how this game is being played at 10:00am UCLA time and the Bruins might still wonder what hit them by the time they are down 10+ points. I know the Bruins played some good basketball down the stretch of the regular season but the setting is just wrong here and I don't know how they managed to get screwed like this but let it be know that I would be on Villanova if this game was played in Malaysia...I don't care. For me its about matchup. Traditionally the Bruins have been a very good underdog wager over the years but having said that they are only 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games and they are now 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games that follow an ATS loss the game before. Villanova on the other hand is also a team that has struggled as a favorite in the NCAA Tournament over the yeas and I know some love to play devils advocate and are going to claim that we have another Wisconsin-Florida State on our hands but give these guys some credit. They played in the best conference in all of college basketball and yet put up some sick numbers. The Wildcats have cashed for me on quite a few Saturdays this season and I think they are going to dominate the action at both ends of the floor. UCLA should be on the first plane back West sometime this afternoon. You could have gave me a -7 on Nova and I would still be on it.

Trend of the Game: UCLA is 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.


Villanova 74, UCLA 62




More selections to come...
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[tmader7]

Absolutely enamored with the play Flava. Watched Baylor throughout the Big 12 tourney and they are motivated, don't think the same can be said about the pokies, er, meant hokies, LOL. Hey Doc, take a geography course sometime. CST/EST zone hits around Crossville, TN, damn near a thousand miles from TX.

~T~

 

[Paddywack]

Hey Doc, take a geography course sometime. CST/EST zone hits around Crossville, TN, damn near a thousand miles from TX.

~T~

Doc is correct, Baylor is from another timezone, one hour behind Va tech.

 

[tmader7]

Doc is correct, Baylor is from another timezone, one hour behind Va tech.

No shit Paddy, that was my point as he wasn't sure of what time zone Waco is in. Come on, little humor to get Round 2 started with.

~T~

 

[Johnny_Ringo]

Nice job yesterday Mista. Florida State was actually my biggest play of the day yesterday and I can't believe they blew that half-time lead but I did tail you on the rest of your picks and I thank you very much for the winners.

 

[tmader7]

Like bullet No. 2 Flava. Now, if you could just show up this am and guide a 49 year old, i.e. lose cannon, with his new PS3. Think you're gonna rock today.

~T~

 

[MistaFlava]

NCAA Tournament - Second Round


View attachment 6727 Maryland Terrapins +9.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6728

The Maryland Terrapins are going to continue receiving this hate from the oddsmakers as long as they are alive and breathing in the 2008-2009 ncaa basketball season. I don't know how many times we have seen lines like this from Vegas only to have the Terps, who I guess are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball right now, keep the games close and find a way to cover the spread in the end. I know what it is...it's that this team just doesn't stop fighting and that is why it has been next to impossible to bet against them. You all saw their incredible resiliency in the first round against Cal and now you will see how they handle Memphis. The Terrapins come into this game averaging 71.8 points per game and like I have talked about many times in the past, sure they don't shoot all that well from the floor but that is their style and that is why they average 7.3 more shot attempts per game than the rest of the Nation averages. It's not a secret that Memphis can play tremendous defense but can we please calm down and accept that they had a weak schedule and that everything is going to eventually even out for the season? The Terps don't really prefer outside shooting to inside action in the paint because they love to mix things up. This team is more about moving the ball around until they find a shot they like from the mid-range and that has really worked for them. I really like that they don't take too many three point shots per game and if they can be just as aggressive in the offensive zone as they always are, good things will come to them. They don't get to the line much per game but when they do they make 76.4% of their free throws on the season and I think they can have some success inside against Memphis who have sent their opponents to the free throw line 18.7 times per game this season playing against mostly Conference USA opponents. We all know how tough Memphs is on the boards but Maryland is tough too, they played in the ACC Conference all season and brought down 32.4 rebounds per game on 11.1 offensive rebounds per game giving them a nice chance to have some second opportunities under the basket. What you have to appreciate about the Terps is their ability to really move the ball around as they averaged 14.8 assists per game this season (NCAA average is 12.9 per game) and they turned the ball over only 12.2 times which is so important against this very aggressive Memphis defense that traps opponents in offensive sets. This matchup is going to be guards versus guards and at the end of the day I give the edge to the Maryland guards which means this game is going to be a lot closer than the experts expect. I am taking the Terps who just never go away.

The Memphis Tigers looked like complete dogshit in the first round of this tournament but often what happens is that good teams take a long time to get going against weaker opponents because they just don't feel the energy of the tournament and a lot of times they come out the second game and kick some serious ass. Well I considered playing Memphis no matter what in the second round of this tournament until I saw who they were going up against and said forget about it. No reason to go against Maryland, they are to chippy and they fight like a bunch of homeless bums being paid for those videotapes. The Tigers come into this game averaging only 68.8 points per game in their last five games and in those games they shot only 44.9% from the floor which doesn't really sound like Memphis teams of old. You would think a team like Maryland would give up a ton of points a game but in their last five games the Terps have shut the door on opposing offenses and have allowed only 67.8 points per game in those games and have allowed their opponents to shoot only 38.9% from the floor which definitely gives them a chance as an underdog. The Terps have tremendous perimeter defense in recent games holding their last five opponents to 29.5% shooting from the floor in those last five games despite having their opponents attempt 38.2% of their shot attempts from beyond the arc. Memphis has not shot the ball well from the outside hitting only 29.5% of their three point shots in their last five games and making only 5.2 three pointers per game in those games. OUCH! I have also not seent he same toughness as earlier in the season from Memphis as they have been to the free throw line only 19.0 times per game in their last five games (below the NCAA average), have made only 65.3% of their free throws in those games and will continue to struggle inside against a Maryland team that has allowed their last five opponents to get to the line only 19.8 times per game in their last five games. That is a problem against Maryland. Again I say that it's no secret that the Tigers can rebound their asses off all day long but keep in mind that the Terps are tough tested and they have already seen a bunch of tough teams like Memphis so this is part of their everyday game and believe me the Terps have upset on their minds here. Like I said before these two teams are identical when it comes to guard play because they can both move the ball around and create amazing looks at the basket for their bigger guys and neither team turns the ball over all that much per game. Having said that, Maryland is going to do a good job holding Memphis back from going nuts like they can and will probably try to do. Anytime you can match the Tigers guard play you are going to have a chance because the Tigers are don't score as many points as they used to and I don't see the Terps being held to under 60 points in this game. Memphis is a good team but it's not time to start backing them just yet on the spread.

I remember these two teams played against each other back in a 2004 pre-season tournament and Mayrland rocked the Tigers but that was back then and nobody is back from any of those teams so that doesn't really matter. I know the public is split 50-50 (or close to it) on this game and that makes a lot of sense to me because like I told you guys before, I actually considered betting on Memphis this round no matter who they were going to play against but again when I saw their opponent there was no way I could go against the Terps having backed them many times this season in this spot and made some nice cash. Maryland is actually a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus teams that have a straight up winning record on the season and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games. The Terps look bad on paper sometimes but they are crazy scrappy and they just don't go away. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog and they have been outstanding in non-conference play where they are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games. I don't have anything bad to say about Memphis when it comes to spread betting because these guys have made me a ton of money this season and the times I have gone against them I have gotten screwed but let it be known that these are not small Conference USA opponents anymore and even if Maryland goes on spells without scoring in this game, they have the defensive intensity and the toughness to stay in this game and although their road to the next round ends here, I think the Terps bring this down to the very end and keep the game close.

Trend of the Game: Maryland is 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.


Memphis 74, Maryland 72




More selections to come...
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[MistaFlava]

NCAA Tournament - Second Round


View attachment 6730 Connecticut Huskies -10.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6729

The Texas A&M Aggies have reached the end of the road if you ask me and I am going to be very straight up about it because I think this is an absolute horrendous matchup for them in this tournament. Not only do they have to go up against a #1 seed that is being talked about as the first #1 seed to leave this tournament but they are playing the one number one seed that poses all sorts of matchup issues for them. I was on the Aggies over BYU and that was fun but this matchup is so different and they won't have an answer for the Huskies in this game. Texas A&M comes into this game averaging 67.7 points per game on the road this season and in those games they have managed to shoot only 42.6% from the floor and that's not good enough against a team from the Big East Conference. UConn plays defense supreme as they have allowed only 61.3 points per game on the road this season and have allowed those road opponents to shoot only 37.9% from the floor in those games. We all know the Aggies can shoot the lights out from beyond the arc but hold up a second, they are making only 5.9 three point shots per away game this season and have not been the same on the road. The Huskies have outstanding perimeter defense as they have allowed their road opponents to make only 28.5% of their three point shots this season and have allowed only 5.1 three point shots made per game in those away games. The Aggies bread and butter on offense comes from their action in the paint and their ability to get to the basket and draw fouls but the problem I have with that is a) the Aggies shoot only 66.4% from the free throw line this season and b) I want to see these guys try to go inside against a UConn team that has allowed their road opponents this season to go to the line only 9.0 times per game (NCAA average is 20.1 times per game) and I would call the Huskies the top interior defense team in the NCAA right now. So how is A&M going to score or even keep this close? Sure they rebound a lot and have some big guys who can ball but again the Huskies don't allow shit around their own basket and their road opponents this season have brought down only 29.7 rebounds per game and brought down only 9.5 offensive rebounds per game in those games. I canont tell you how bad the guard play has been for A&M on the road where they average only 9.1 assists per game and have turned the ball over 14.0 times per game in those games. Believe me UConn is not going to force a bunch of turnovers and they are not going to be all that aggressive defensively. However, what they do well is force opposing teams to take horrendous shots and they force opposing teams to go on long spells with no points and that is ultimately going to kill the Aggies. The only way to keep things close with UConn is to attack their defense with speed and good ball movement to find open lanes and the Aggies can't do either which is again why I think this is a horrenous matchup for them. I don't see Texas A&M scoring 60 points in this game and this is where their tournament ends. The Huskies have the edge in every aspect of this matchup and there is nothing the Aggies can do to change that because they just don't have the guard play to break the Huskies defensively. Have fun in the NBA Josh Carter.

The Connecticut Huskies will have coach Calhoun back behind the bench for this game today and if that's not motivation enough to come out guns blazing and win this game big then I don't know what they are doing in this tournament. Sure he missed their first game of the tournament while he was in hospital but the Huskies paid tribute to him by crushing their #16 seed opponents and I'll be honest right now, they were the best looking #1 seed in the first round by miles and miles. All that after being criticized for having a #1 seed in the first place. What a complete joke. This is a very good team. The Huskies come into this game averaging a crazy 91.5 points per game on neutral courts this season and they have managed to score all those points by shooting a whopping 47.4% from the floor in those games. Texas A&M as well as they have played at times don't stand a chance against this offense on a neutral court where they have allowed 70.6 points in those games and their opponents have managed to shoot 45.9% from the floor. I have always said that the Aggies have good perimeter defenders but that that is where it ends. Having said that, they have allowed their neutral court opponents to shoot 34.2% from three point range this season but the Huskies are not a three point shooting team on neutral courts and they are going to focus a lot more on their inside power. Want to know what I'm talking about? Well the Aggies have some big guys inside but they cannot handle the Huskies and their ability to press, attack and just destroy opposing defenses in the paint. Connecticut has been to the free throw line a whopping 35.2 times per game on neutral courts this season and the Aggies are going to run into foul trouble the minute this game starts. Tehir neutral court opponents have been to the free throw line 19.6 times per game this season but none have had the inside presence of the Huskies and none have come close to being as tough with so many interior post players. You also have to know that the Huskies come into this game averaging 43.8 rebounds per neutral court game (the NCAA average is 31.9) and that 15.8 of those rebounds have been of the offensive kind. Texas A&M again can do what they want to slow this game down and keep the Huskies from running but their lack of offensive effectiveness against this kind of defense is going to allow UConn to have the ball for a good portion of this game and the Huskies are not going to stop attacing. Coach Calhoun knows the importance of playing well in each and every game. Despite the loss of Dyson for the year this team still has talent and the Huskies average a whopping 18.2 assists per neutral court game this season and should have no problems moving the ball around the Aggies zone and creating a bunch of open looks from both the inside and the outside. The Aggies force only 13.0 turnovers per neutral court game and average only 4.0 steals per game in those games which is nowhere near enough to make the Huskies uncomfortable. I don't know what else to say because even if the Huskies use their bench for the most part of the second half they are going to keep the pressure coming on offense and on defense and there is on way they don't win this game by a good 15-20 points. Horrible matchup for the Aggies and the Huskies will continue to look like the best #1 seed in this tournament.

Alright so we have already established that this is the biggest mismatch possible in the second round of games and I don't think there is even a point playing this game. Even if the Huskies come out of the gates slowly they are not going to be denied in the paint and with coach Calhoun back on the bench this team is going to be motivated to win via another blowout. Winning by blowout would also shut the world up and make those polls asking who the first #1 seed to lose would be, look pretty damn stupid. I was seriously impressed by Connecticut in the first round and I don't think that game was a fluke. Alright so the stats look good for Texas A&M as they have covered the spread in something like 11 of their last 12 neutral site games as an underdog but all good things must come to an end and the Aggies have finally met their match in this one. All these years of performing well in tournaments as an underdog and showing up better teams by almost beating them or sending them packing...I don't think there has been a weaker Aggies team than this one. Sure they made me cash in the first round but it's time to fade. Connecticut is a team that plays with momentum and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win of 20+ points. The Huskies have had a horrendous time covering spreads in NCAA Tournament games and prior to their first round game they had lost seven straight in NCAA Tournaments on the ATS front. Well now that streak is gone and these guys are showing up ready to play for Calhoun who is back in his prime spot for this game. Blowout time!

Trend of the Game: Connecticut is 4-0 ATS in their last four games that follow a straight up win of 20+ points.


Connecticut 84, Texas A&M 57




More selections to come...
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[tmader7]

Flava, frankly, I'd be more concerned if I were Pitt as far as the first 1 seed to go out. They were pathetic at best yesterday, and that was with Blair in relatively no foul trouble. What's gonna happen when they play a formidable opponent? The Pokes will give them all they want, but I don't see them making the Elite 8. I see over 138+ better bet than taking a side in the UCON/A&M game. GL and keep'em coming.

~T~

 

[MistaFlava]

NCAA Tournament - Second Round


View attachment 6732 Oklahoma Sooners -6.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6731

The Michigan Wolverines not only made it back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in who knows how many years but they kicked some serious ass against Clemson in the first round and believe it or not that is a game I decided not to touch. There were better matchups on the board in my mind but I ended up losing those and it was a waste of time. Having said that, playing against Oklahoma is a completely different story and I think this is the worst possible matchup for the Wolverines so it looks like their time in this tournament has come to an end. Michigan comes into this game averaging only 60.6 points per game on the road this season and they have shot a horrendous 38.7% from the floor in those games. Do you really think that kind of garbage is going to work against this Sooners team? Give me a break. Oklahoma is one of the best defensive teams in the NCAA and they have allowed only 66.8 points per game on the road this season and allowed those road opponents to shoot only 41.1% from the floor in those games. The Wolverines are all about taking three point shots as a whopping 51.5% of their overall shot attempts on the road this season have been from beyond the arc but they have made only 30.1% of those three point shots and I don't see Oklahoma having too many problems guarding the perimeter in this game having allowed their road opponents to shoot only 33.5% from three point range this season. The only way to beat Oklahoma or stay close to them is to have an inside game to compliment your outside shooting but the Wolverines don't have an inside game and they have been to the free throw line only 13.4 times per road game this season and that just doesn't cut it here. That means the Wolverines are going to rely on missed three point shot attempts and cheap baskets here and there to score and by that time Oklahoma will be up 20. What's funny is that Michigan shoots poorly on the road and they bring down only 23.9 rebounds per away game as well on 7.3 offensive rebounds per game. So how the hell can they score if they can't rebound their misses? That's horrendous and Oklahoma is going to eat these guys alive on the offensive and defensive boards in this game. The Sooners have allowed their road opponents this season to bring down only 29.5 rebounds per game and have forced a bunch of one and dones. I am a big fan of Manny Harris and I think the Wolverines have decent guard play for a team that can't score much because they move the ball well and don't turn it over much but the Sooners defense has nothing to do with forcing turnovers. They are more about size and the 4.3 blocks per game they average on the road this season and the Sooners also pressure so much that they make it impossible to get some ball flow around the perimeter which makes it impossible to get open looks from the floor. This is one of the most intense defenses the Wolverines have seen all season long and I don't think they are going to react to well to the toughness inside. Sure teams that shoot the three this much always have a chance but it's not like Michigan shoots the three ball well on the road and that is eventually going to catch up to them here and send them packing right out of this tournament. Nice season guys.

The Oklahoma Sooners also made quite the statement in their opening round game and it looks like some of these more defensive sound teams with some great composed big guys up front are going to be what works in this year's version of the NCAA Tournament. As long as everyone on this team is healthy, the Sooners are worthy of top consideration for a spot in the FINAL FOUR because they were at some point one of the best teams in the Country and they do have the Nation's PLAYER OF THE YEAR (almost surely) in Blake Griffin. The Sooners come into this game scoring 79.4 points per game on neutral courts this season and they have managed to do that by shooting a whopping 49.6% from the floor in those games. Now I know Michigan played some solid defense in the BIG TEN Conference this season and right now that doesn't really mean shit to me because the minute a team comes out with a faster pace like the Sooners can do, the BIG TEN teams are done (with the exception of Michigan State and maybe Purdue) so it doesn't bother me that Michigan has good defensive numbers for the year. Much like some of the other good teams in the Country the Sooners don't bother taking too many three point shots but they still do make 32.6% of their three point shots on neutral courts this season. However, I don't advise doing much perimeter shooting against Michigan because the Wolverines have held their neutral court opponents to some bad shooting from the outside but again those are BIG TEN opponents and the Sooners are a totally different animal. Oklahoma loves to go to work down low where they have been to the free throw line 31.2 times per game on neutral courts this season and have made 70.5% of their free throws on those neutral courts this season. Michigan's interior defense, when pressured and pressed is not good and the Sooners are going to have one hell of a time scoring down low in this game. If the Wolverines get into foul trouble in this game they are cooked early because not only do the Sooners make their freebies but the Wolverines are not a deep team. Right now Oklahoma comes into this game averaging 37.0 rebounds per game on a neutral court this season whch is 10.7 more rebounds per game than the Wolverines on the same neutral courts and that is just some incredible stuff. The Wolverines are brutal on the defensive boards where their neutral court opponents have brought down 12.0 offensive rebounds per game this season and if you give Griffin more than one chance under the basket he is going to blow you out of this house. I know Oklahoma has been sloppy on neutral courts and they have turned the ball over too much but it won't matter until later in this tournament because here Michigan has forced only 12.3 turnovers per neutral court game this season and have allowed 13.0 assists per game (both worse than the NCAA average). The guard play on the Sooners is going to have to improve if they want to win down the stretch but for now they can get away with their toughness inside because Michigan is not going to have an anwer for anything Oklahoma does in this game and I don't think this is going to stay close for long. It's just too east to get inside against this Michigan defense and it's too easy to creat opening with penetration which means Oklahoma is probably going to shoot well from the outside and they are going to pound away on the inside and put this game away with free throw after free throw after free throw. No way they lose this game.

Every feel good story has to come to an end and as happy as a lot of people were to see the Wolverines get into this tournament, everyone understands that they are not that great of a team despite beating teams like Duke and that against much bigger and tougher teams like the Sooners they are going to struggle. Well we are in the second round now and this is when good players start separating themselves from the bad and with all this NATIONAL PLAYER OF THE YEAR talk surrouding Griffin right now, we all expect him to play like the best player and that is going to be too easy for him in this game. Even if he sits to rest in the second half, I have full confidence that the Sooners are going to keep the 10 point lead for the most part of this game. Michigan has been really good as an underdog and they have been really good in non-conference games this season but they are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as an underdog and I think this is a team they absolutely cannot beat. Oklahoma is another one of those teams like UConn that has sucked ass over the last few years in NCAA Tournament games on the spread but the Sooners are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when favored by 0.5 to 6.5 points and this is a great spot to back them against an opponent they should have no problems blowing out of the water when the second half comes rolling around. Vegas you made a mistake on this one and more than 70% of us are going to make you pay for it.

Trend of the Game: Michigan is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as an underdog.


Oklahoma 74, Michigan 55




More selections to come...
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[MistaFlava]

NCAA Tournament - Second Round


View attachment 6734 Purdue Boilermakers +1.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6733

The Purdue Boilermakers are the team I picked a few months back as a dark horse contender for a surprise spot in the FINAL FOUR or in the ELITE EIGHT and although they looked like complete shit in their first round game against Northern Iowa, where they had the spread covered but completely blew it in the late going and made the game a lot closer than it should have been. Alright so playing out West is not going to be easy for the Boilermakers but the BIG TEN Conference was good this season and the Boilermakers are conference champions so you are not going to get rid of these guys all that easily. Purdue comes into this game averaging 70.7 points per game on neutral courts this season and they have managed to get that done by shooting 43.2% from the floor in those games which is good for a BIG TEN Conference team. Washington's defense has been rock solid all season and they showed that against Mississippi State in the first round but they have allowed 73.0 points per game which is too many in my books despite allowing their opponents to shoot only 42.7% from the floor in those games. Having said that, Purdue is a tremendous three point shooting team that has made 38.4% of their three point shots per game on a neutral court this season on 8.0 three pointers made per game in those games. Well Washington is fucked because they cannot defend the perimeter even if their lives depended on it and have allowed neutral court opponents to shoot 38.1% from three point range and have allowed those same opponents to make 8.0 three point shots per game. JESUS CHRIST! Purdue is going to get a ton of open looks. The Boilermakers don't get to the free throw line much on neutral courts but when they do they have made 73.5% of those free throws and Washington has struggled against teams that can hit threes and work the ball inside as well. The Huskies have not allowed many free throws shot opportunities on neutral courts but Purdue is too good from the outside that the Huskies are going to leave openings in the paint. The Boilermakers average 32.7 rebounds per game on neutral courts this season and I think they can trouble the Huskies in this game because Washington has allowed their neutral court opponents to bring down 10.0 offensive rebounds per game and if you give Purdue their ability to make three point shots along with second chances down low in the paint, the Boilermakers are going to run away with this game. I cannot express how good the guard play has been for Purdue on neutral courts where they have averaged a whopping 15.8 assists per game, have shown some tremendous ball distribution and ball movement skills while turning the ball over only 9.0 times per game in those games. Washington lives and dies by their ability to force turnovers in games and believe me Purdue takes care of the ball better than most teams in this Country and Washington is going to have to change their gameplan. The Huskies have allowed neutral court opponents to average 12.8 assists per game and if you let Purdue get into the swing of things with their passing, you won't stick around for long in a game like this. The Huskies just don't have enough inside presence or the ability to defend the outside in this game and that is going to cost them big time. Purdue is going to continue to impress and I see them winning this game in a tough environment.

The Washington Huskies have an unfair advantage in this game and that advantage is the one of playing in front of a very pro-Huskies crowd as this game is scheduled close to home and like they did in the first round, they had a huge advantage with the crowd on their side. I know I went against these guys in the first round but I guess it slipped my mind how bad the SEC Conference really was this past season and I should have never trusted one of those teams in this tournament (it's not like any of them will be left after tonight anyways). Washington comes into this game averaging 78.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by shooting 45.5% from the floor in those games but let me tell you right now that some of the PAC 10 Conference teams are horrendous defensively and I would not put too much into the numbers of Washington. Purdue has been tremendous on the defensive side of things all season allowing 59.0 points per game this season and allowing those opponents to shoot only 38.8% from the floor in those games. If Washington struggles to shoot in this game they won't hang around for long. We all know Washington is all about inside toughness and that they don't have much of an outside games making only 33.7% of their three point shots on the season and making only 4.2 three point shots per game in those games. That would make it tough for them to come back from a large deficit should they get down in this game because Purdue has allowed their opponents this season to shoot only 32.7% from three point range and have allowed them to make only 5.6 three point shots per game. The Huskies love working the ball inside and they love getting to the line with interior toughness but the only problem there is that Purdue is very tough to beat inside and their opponents this season have been to the free throw line only 16.7 times per game. If the Huskies cannot get anything going inside or if they are held to minimal interior penetration, it's going to be a frustrating afternoon for this team. We all know the Huskies have the edge in rebounding in this game because they are a big team with some big guys inside and they always fight for loose balls but let it be know that Purdue's opponents this season have grabbed only 30.6 rebounds per game and those same opponents have managed to bring down only 9.4 offensive rebounds per game in those games. What I don't like about Washington is that despite their interior toughness, they don't have the guard play to match the stingy defense of the Boilermakers and Washington has averaged only 12.8 assists per game this season while turning the ball over 14.8 times per game. Uh oh...big trouble for the Huskies against a Purdue team that is very aggressive with their hands and arms and that have forced 14.7 turnovers per game on the year while averaging 7.2 steals per game on the season. Purdue is also very tough under their own basket as they come into this game averaging 4.8 blocks per game and the more you pressure Washington and they don't have their way inside, the more they start jacking up three point shots and that is nothing something they have done for the most part of this season. Purdue's defense is going to be too much for Washington and once again the Huskies are going to make an early exit from the NCAA Tournament despite playing in front of a large home crowd seeing how this game is being played in Portland, Oregon. Against anyone else yes but not against this Boilermakers team. They are just too good.

I remember the PAC 10 Conference game where Washington played against Arizona State and ran into a team with good guard play that had a few big guys who could take care of business on the inside as well. Well I know Purdue and Arizona State are different but doesn't this remind me you of that matchup a little bit? Well the Huskies lost that game by 10 points and once again they could not handle the tremendous guard play of the Sun Devils and they could not handle the power up front that the Sun Devils were also able to bring to the table. I said coming into this tournament that I would have no problems backing Purdue in almost every game but I got screwed the first time around. Having said that, I guess they had to adjust to playing out West and losing that game is understandble. Purdue is 4-1 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points and they have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 neutral site games as an underdog. I think Purdue has been a great team to bet on all season when playing on a Saturday and they have covered the spread in 11 of their last 16 games as an underdog and 5 of their last 7 in the NCAA Tournament as an underdog. Washington has a decent ATS betting history in the NCAA Tournament but I don't think their inside toughness is going to be a factor against a very technically sound Purdue team here and I think the Huskies are going to struggle to get their rythm going in this game. Ultimately Purdue has more weapons and more diverse game and Washington's inability to guard the perimeter is going to be a big time problem in this gane. Dogs are barking boys and girls.

Trend of the Game: Purdue is 4-1 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points.


Purdue 73, Washington 68




More selections to come...
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[eBETMONSTERS]

dude it the man... I played Baylor +165 for a large sum, thanks!

 

[fbking26]

Good Job on Baylor

Nice writeups
GL

 

[JWinner17]

Luv NOVA, Memphis MOneyline, OU MONeyline, and UCONN MOneyline!!!

 

[JWinner17]

MistaFlava is on FIRE!!! Keep it going brother!!!

 

[AppleBuddy4Life]

what are your thoughts and write ups on duke and unc?