MistaFlava's CBB Thursday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2008 CBB Record: 89-89-4 ATS (+3.80 Units)

I am so happy to have March finally come strolling around. I needed this month to show up. Time to turn things around big time. Okay so we are in the home stretch of the college basketball season and I am no satisfied with my results. I have not been able to go on any kind of streak and have not been all that helpful to anyone who visits my threads. My solution to this is to go back to my old school capping ways that made me more than 40k on the season in the NFL. I have tried too hard to mess around with systems, PS3 plays and all sorts of bullshit that I have sorta lost my way a bit.

So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.

1 unit = $100


You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!

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Thursday, March 5


View attachment 6561 Tennessee Volunteers +1.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6560

The Tennessee Volunteers are coming off their biggest road win of the season on the weekend as they beat the Florida Gators in a very important game. Don't expect the winning to stop now. Tennessee comes into this game averaging 70.4 points per game in their last five games and they have managed to get that done on 43.8% shooting from the floor which is good enough for me. South Carolina is not a good defensive team as their last five opponents have managed to score 76.2 points per game and they have allowed those same opponents to shoot 44.4% from the floor in those last five games. I would suggest Bruce Pearl's guys stay away from the three point ball tonight because they have not shot that well from long distance in their last five games but if there was ever a game to get hot from beyond the arc it would be tonight because South Carolina has allowed their last five opponents to shoot 40.2% from three point range which is well above the NCAA average of 34.9% from downtown. Neither one of these teams is any good when it comes to free throw shooting but I do like Tennessee's ability to get to the free throw line as they have been to the line 20.2 times per game in their last five games while South Carolina has allowed their last five opponents to go to the line 22.6 times per game. The Volunteers don't grab that many rebounds per game but they do fight hard on the offensive glass and that is going to be a huge problem for a South Carolina team that has allowed their last five opponents to grab 13.6 offensive rebounds per game while Tennessee is averaging 12.4 offensive boards per game in their last five games. The only teams you should ever bet on against this South Carolina pressure defense are teams with guards who know what they are doing. Well the Vols have guards who know what they are doing and seeing how the Gamecocks have forced 20.6 turnovers per game in their last five games, you have to like the fact that the Vols are turning the ball over only 10.2 times per game the last five games. Tennessee can win this game and they will do it with their toughness on the glass.

The South Carolina Gamecocks know what is at stake tonight and yes they are 16-1 SU at home but I don't like their loss at Vanderbilt on the weekend and I have not been all that impressed with the way they have played at home or who they have played at home. The Gamecocks come into this game averaging 77.4 points per game in their last five games but they have shot only 42.9% from the floor in those games. I know Tennessee's defense is not all that great as they have allowed their last five opponents to score 71.8 points per game and shoot 48.3% from the floor in those games but this is a tough SEC battle and toughness will be what matters most. Much like Tennessee I don't think South Carolina can run away with this game because they don't have any big time threats from three point range the last five games and they have shot only 31.4% from beyond the arc in those games. The Vols are aggressive and they do get to the free throw line quite a few times per game in their last five games but the problem there is that they shoot only 66.7% from the free throw line in their last five games and to make things worse, Tennessee's interior defense is pretty good as their last five opponents have been to the line only 18.6 times per game in those games. I talked about rebounding earlier and it seems that both teams will rely heavily on offensive boards and toughness on the glass. Well even though South Carolina is a good offensive rebounding team, the Volunteers are even better on the defensive end of things as their last five opponents have averaged only 9.4 offensive rebounds per game and that is incredible in the SEC where the average has been above 10 per game all season long. I am not impressed at all with the way South Carolina has moved the ball as they average only 9.6 assists per game in their last five games and they have turned the ball over 14.0 times epr game in those games. Not good. I say that because Tennessee could have an easy time stripping these guys of the ball as the Vols have forced 15.0 turnovers per game their last five games and the ability to force turnovers could be the difference in this game. Both teams have good interior defense and this is going to be a real battle to the end but South Carolina just doesn't have the right group of guys to win this game.

This game is for the SEC East Division, that's basically it. Both teams are tied at the top right now. It would be easy to go with South Carolina in this game because they are 16-1 SU at home this season and they have beaten just about everyone in this building but having said that, I don't think they have faced the best of the best and with so much on the line tonight, I think these guys are in for a ride. Tennessee has covered the spread in 11 of their last 15 games as a short point road underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points. They have also been a very good road underdog bet going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog away from home. I know you cannot trust a lot of teams away from home but Tennessee is 5-5 SU away from home, they are coming off a huge morale boosting win at Florida on the weekend and now they recognize the need to go on a win streak heading into tournament time. Watch out for these guys. South Carolina is coming off a loss to Vanderbilt and yes they are going to be pissed but they have covered the spread in only 2 of their last 9 games as a favorite and they have not been a good ATS team at home going 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 home games and going 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams and the road team has covered 5 of the last 7 meetings. The Gamecocks are a bit overrated if you ask me and Tennessee is going to teach them a nice little lesson tonight. Can't believe this much public action is on the Gamecocks. Way too many on them, time to fade and go with the better team.

Trend of the Game: South Carolina is 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 home games.


Tennessee 79, South Carolina 74





More to come...
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[The_HAMMER]

Like it bro....

BOL tonight.

 

[Twisted]

Like the Vols too, GL

:toast:

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...

View attachment 6562 Illinois Fighting Illini -1 (50 Units) View attachment 6563

***PLAY OF THE WEEK***

The Illinois Fighting Illini could not win a road game if their lives depended on it to start 2009 but since finally breaking that curse on February 12 at Northwestern (1 point win at the buzzer pretty much), there is no stopping these guys. So after going winless for so long away from home, Illinois is currently riding a three game road win streak in Big Ten Conference play and the fun continues tonight. Illinois comes into this game averaging only 57.2 points per game in their last five games but in those games they have managed to shoot 45.3% from the floor which is pretty damn good considering the bad shooting percentages of the Big Ten Conference. Penn State's defense has been solid all season and they have allowed only 57.6 points per game in their last five games and have allowed only 43.3% shooting from the floor in those games. Having said that, their perimeter defense has not been good as their last five opponents have knocked down 39.6% of their shots from three point range and those opponents have averaged 7.2 three pointers made per game in those games. The Illini are not known for their three point shooting but this is a good chance to get some of them going from the outside because inside the team has been to the free throw line only 8.6 times per game in their last five games and the Nittany Lions don't allow much in the paint. I think both Chester Frazier and Trent Meacham are going to shoot the lights out from the outside in this one. All the Illini have to do is move the ball around the perimeter and create good shot opportunities as they average 16.0 assists per game in their last five games and have turned the ball over only 13.4 times per game. It's not like Penn State forces turnovers anyways as they have forced only 10.8 turnovers per game in their last five games on only 4.0 steals per game in those games. The key to winning this game for Illiniois will to find the outside shooters and move the ball around until they can get open. Like I said before, Penn State has problems defending the outside and Mike Davis is going to be enough of a distraction inside to have them outside guards collapse on screens. That should leave Meacham and Frazier wide open for some bombs from the outside.

The Penn State Nittany Lions are not that good of a team but they have played well this season and they do have a chance at some post-season action. Having said that, they come into this game averaging only 54.6 points per game in their last five games and in those games they have shot a horrendous 40.3% from the floor and that's just not good enough for me to back them. Penn State is all about three point shooting as they have made 35.2% of their shots from three point range in their last five games and a whopping 44.1% of their shot attempts in those games have been from beyond the arc. Having said that, good luck trying to shoot threes on the Fighting Illini who have allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 26.1% from three point range. In those games Illinois has allowed their opponents to make only 3.6 three point shots made per game and seeing how the Nittany Lions rely so much on three point shooting in their last five games, I think they are in big time trouble tonight. Penn State gets to the free throw line a bit more than Illinois does but the Nittany Lions have made only 63.6% of their free throws the last five games so I just don't know where they are going to score points in this game. Ilinois is tough inside, they don't allow much lane penetration and they average 4.8 blocks per game in their last five games. Unlike Illinois, Penn State's guard play as of late has been brutal because they average only 10.4 assists per game in their last five games and again all they really do is jack up shots from three point range. With Illinois defending the perimeter so well in this one, you can expect Penn State to move out of character and try to go inside but again that doesn't work and the Fighting Illini have forced 13.4 turnovers per game in their last five games. Penn State has been good to me this season but they don't match up well here against a team seeking revenge.

We all remember the first meeting between these two where Illinois was largely favored at home and ended up losing 38-33. Well let me tell you right now that the line was messed up to begin with in that game and seeing how the Illini are seeking revenge, I just don't see that happening again nor do I see it happening after a home loss to Michigan State on the weekend on Senior's Day. Illinois has been a very good bet coming off a loss this season and last as they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss the game before and they have covered 8 of their last 10 games that follow a spread loss the game before. Penn State has been cash money as a home dog all season long and I know some are tempted to take them in this game but what you have to understand is that the spot is not right and are you willing to wager on a team that has covered the spread in only 2 of their last 7 games overall? Penn State is 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points and 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points. Wow that is bad. It's been quite some time since Illiniois has covered the spread against Penn State but for the first time in three years the line seems ripe for a covering and I love the fact that the road team has mostly dominated this series. This is the best spot/line I have seen for Illinois all season and I have decided to make this my PLAY OF THE WEEK so pound this bitch!!!

Trend of the Game: Penn State is 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points.


Illinois 62, Penn State 53
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More to come...

 

[thekid78]

Illinois beat Indiana (worst team in the Big 10) and Ohio State on the road. They are 5-4 overall on the road. Not sure how you can point out that they are on fire on the road since NU, but don't mention that Penn State is 14-3 at home and already beat Illinois in Champaign??? Personally, I am not on the game and I realize Illinois will be a popular forum play tonight, but I think it is most likely the wrong side and your write-up is highly skewed to your selection.

I have no dog in this fight so good luck

 

[goleafs]

quote=thekid78;6497189]Illinois beat Indiana (worst team in the Big 10) and Ohio State on the road. They are 5-4 overall on the road. Not sure how you can point out that they are on fire on the road since NU, but don't mention that Penn State is 14-3 at home and already beat Illinois in Champaign??? Personally, I am not on the game and I realize Illinois will be a popular forum play tonight, but I think it is most likely the wrong side and your write-up is highly skewed to your selection.

I have no dog in this fight so good luck[/quote]
!~~~!

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...

View attachment 6565 Arizona Wildcats -4.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6564

The California Golden Bears have made me some cash the last few weeks but that was in home games and I just don't trust these clowns on the road...never have...never will. The Golden Bears come into this game averaging 72.6 points per game and they have shot a very good 47.2% from the floor in those games but things might be a little bit different tonight as they head into a very tough road building to play in. Arizona has not been good defensively the last week or two as they have allowed 74.0 points per game in their last five games and they have allowed those five opponents to shoot 49.3% from the floor in those games. That sounds bad I agree but what you have to understand and know is that the Wildcats have been killed by their perimeter defense as their last five opponents have shot 43.1% from three point range and have averaged 9.4 three point shots made per game in those games. California does not have any three point shooting threats as only 24.5% of their shot attempts the last three games have been from three point range which means they have made only 4.6 three point shots per game in those games. That means the Golden Bears will look to move the ball inside and work their magic in the paint but I have a problem with that because not only does Jordan Hill return to the Wildcats tonight but the Wildcats interior defense has been pretty good the last five games and their last five opponents have been to the line only 15.6 times per game in those games. Neither team grabs a lot of rebounds so we could be in for some one and dones tonight but regardless Hill is back in the lineup and he brings some toughness on both ends of the floor. Cal's guard play has been good the last five games but they have turned the ball over 13.2 times per game in those games and if Arizona continues to take chances and be aggressive on defense, they will force enough turnovers to win big. The Wildcats have forced 15.4 turnovers per game in their last five games and have 8.0 steals per game in those games. California is a good team but I don't think they have what it takes to win on the road or even keep this game close.

The Arizona Wildcats have lost three straight games and they have really struggled without the services of Jordan Hill. Well the word on the street is that he is back tonight and that should be enough to get these guys back in the win column against a team that has been nothing more than mediocre away from home. It's not like Arizona can't score it's just that they have not been able to defend. I mean they are averaging 73.2 points per game in their last five games and they are shooting a very decent 46.8% from the floor in those games. What you need to know is that even though Arizona's defense has been bad, California's has not been much better as the Golden Bears have allowed 70.0 points per game in their last five games and those last five opponents have shot 45.7% from the floor in those games. The Wildcats have some guys who can really shoot the lights out as they have made 43.3% of their three point shots the last five games on 7.8 three pointers made per game in those games. The Bears perimeter defense has been horrendous the last five games and their last five opponents have managed to shoot 36.9% from three point range which is a huge advantage for the Wildcats in this game. Arizona has lost three straight because of their lack of inside game without Hill but with his possible return, this team should have weapons firing on all cylinders both inside and outside. They are shooting 78.9% from the free throw line the last five games and have been to the line 19.0 times per game in those games. I know they are not the best rebounding team in the conference but they do work hard and this is a home game so expect a better effort than usual. The Wildcats should have some great guard play tonight as they average 13.6 assists per game in their last five games, have turned the ball over only 12.6 times per game in those games and are going up against a Golden Bears team that has forced only 11.4 turnovers per game. The Bears are just not aggressive enough defensively and their last five opponents average 14.8 assists per game which means Nic Wise should have a field day finding open guys in this game. This game means a lot more to Arizona than it does to Cal and I think the Wildcats snap right out of their streak and win this game by a pretty large margin.

We all saw how the first meeting between these teams went (14 point win by Cal at home on January 2). A lot has happened since that game and Arizona not only has lost three straight games but they should have one of their star players (Jordan Hill averages 18.2 points per game this season) back in time for tonight and that should be a huge boost. Regardless of his return in this game I still like the Wildcats a lot in this matchup. California comes into this game 1-4 ATS in games that follow a straight up loss the game before and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. We are also talking about a team that has covered the spread only 1 time in their last 4 games as an underdog and a team that is 0-4 ATS in their last four road games versus a team that has a winning home record on the season. Everything in this game points to a big Arizona win tonight as the Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games, they are very comfortable playing in this building, they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games versus teams with a winning percentage above .600% for the season and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite. I also have to mention that the favorite in this series has covered 7 of the last 10 meetings and Arizona has responded well to losses as they are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games that follow a straight up loss the game before. I think they put in one of their best efforts of the season in this game tonight and if Hill is back in the lineup, you can expect a 10+ point win tonight.

Trend of the Game: Arizona is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games that follow a straight up loss the game before.


Arizona 78, California 64





:toast:





Three games for tonight guys, about to post some NBA as well to see how that goes. Good Luck to all tonight and lets make some fuckin cash!!!!
​

 

[MistaFlava]

RECAP


Tennessee +1.5
Illinois -1
Arizona -4.5





:toast:

 

[MagicSpread]

GL Flava...I like em.

 

[JWinner17]

Luv the Tennesse play!!!

 

[PRC]

Having a hel of a night so far up 60 units congrats man. Hopefully Zona can hit for you for a nice 3-0 night. BOL

 

[Paddywack]

Having a hel of a night so far up 60 units congrats man. Hopefully Zona can hit for you for a nice 3-0 night. BOL

Looks like you counted the chickens before they hatched.

 

[MistaFlava]

Spoke too soon, just got fucked large by Illinois, story of my fuckin season. What a fucked up finish.

 

[PublicsMoney]

Tough, tough loss. Keep on battling.

 

[longhorn30]

was on illinois with ya, that was fucked up...idiots can't hit a dang free throw