MistaFlava's CBB Thursday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis + Play of the Month)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2008 CBB Record: 78-75-4 ATS (+9.30 Units)

Okay so we are in the home stretch of the college basketball season and I am no satisfied with my results. I have not been able to go on any kind of streak and have not been all that helpful to anyone who visits my threads. My solution to this is to go back to my old school capping ways that made me more than 40k on the season in the NFL. I have tried too hard to mess around with systems, PS3 plays and all sorts of bullshit that I have sorta lost my way a bit.

So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.

1 unit = $100


You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!

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Thursday, February 26


View attachment 6512 West Virginia Mountaineers -4.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6513

West Virginia and Bob Huggins are back in Cincinnati and believe me when I say his guys are going to want to win this game for him and they will want to win it big. This is going to be an emotional night for him that's for sure. The Mountaineers can score and they can score in bunches as they are averaging 78.2 points per game in their last five games this season and are shooting an impressive 46.5% from the floor in those games (both well above the NCAA averages for those categories in the last five games). Cincinnati has had all sorts of problems defending their last five game as they have allowed 72.6 points per game and allowed 45.4% shooting from the floor in those last five games and that kind of defense is going to get them blown out of the water in this game. The Neers have been shooting 35.5% from three point range in those five games averaging 7.8 three pointers made per game in those games. What I have noticed about Cincinnati is that they cannot handle teams that are aggressive in their moves to the basket as their last five opponents have been to the line 23.0 times per game and West Virginia loves working around the basket as they have been to the free throw line 21.6 times per game in their last five games and have made 70.4% of their freebies. I also consider West Virginia an above average rebounding team that should have no problems picking up many garbage points tonight. The Neers average 33.4 rebounds per game in their last five, 10.4 of those the offensive kind and they are a tough team. The Mountaineers should have no problems moving the ball tonight as they average a whopping 17.6 assists per game in their last five games, Cincinnati allows 15.6 assists per game in those games and force only 9.0 turnovers in the process. West Virginia does not turn the ball over much in their last five games and they should take some big leads in this game. Huggins will have his guys ready to play tonight believe me on that.

The Cincinnati Bearcats are a young team and they know the crowd is going to be behind their old ball coach. I have to admit that the Bearcats are playing a lot better lately in terms of the offensive side of things as they have scored 72.0 points per game in their last five games and have actually been shooting the ball well dropping 49.2% of their shot attempts for scores in those games. What the Mountaineers have to be careful about here is the Bearcats and their ability to shoot the three ball because they have been one of the hottest teams from beyond the arc their last five games. Having said that, West Virginia's defense improves with each and every game that passes as they have allowed only 65.0 points scored per game in their last five games and their last five opponents have shot only 43.1% from the floor in those games. More importantly, the Mountaineers have not allowed any open looks from beyond the arc as their last five opponents have shot only 28.7% from three point range. The game will probably be close for a while because Cincinnati can score down low and they will get to the line in this game but their inability to rebound effectively is going to be a problem against the Mountaineers as Cincinnati has brought down only 27.0 total rebounds per game in their last five games with only 7.8 of those being of the offensive kind. Not good at all, the Mountaineers will kill these guys on the boards. The guard play has been outstanding for the Bearcats as of late but Bob Huggins knows a thing or two about shutting down opposing ball moving guard as West Virginia has allowed only 10.2 assists per game their last five games and forced 14.2 turnovers in those games. Don't expect Cincinnati to have any success with second chance points as the Neers have 5.4 blocks per game their last five games and their defense is too solid.

The Mountaineers have covered the spread the last four times they were favored in a game and they have been a very good team to bet on when it comes to Thursday Night games as they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six Thursday night games. I know some of you are going to hesitate on backing the Mountaineers here because of the emotions involved with tonight's game but don't back down, they are the better team and they will pull away in the second half. The Bearcats have been a good wager when they are coming off a straight up loss but they are only 1-4 ATS in their last five home games versus a team that has a straight up winning record on the road this season. They have also had all sorts of problems winning and covering spreads against very good team as they are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games versus team that have a winning percentage better than .600% on the season. I think West Virginia is going to go on some kind of run to end the season. They have grown up in a hurry since some early season losses and Bob Huggins is going to want to win this game more than any other game this season. Count one for the big guy.

Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams that have a winning percentage above .600%.


West Virginia 76, Cincinnati 60





:toast:





I will post my other four selections as I get writeups together for them. Good Luck to everyone tonight, should be some pretty damn good games and it's too bad they don't put a few of these on Friday Nights to make things interesting.
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[MistaFlava]

By the way I am going to be at the Pitt-UConn game on March 7 if anyone from the forum wants to say whats up.


:drink:

 

[MistaFlava]

Alright so this is a play I was waiting for since last weekend. I love to circle games before the week starts, come up with my own line and then pound away if the price is right...

View attachment 6515 Virginia Cavaliers +3.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6514

The Miami Florida Hurricanes are a pretty good team and they have made me some cash this season but this is a great spot to fade them and that's just what I'm doing. The Hurricanes cane score points that's for sure as they have averaged 71.0 points per game in their last five games, have shot 45.2% from the floor in those games and are capable of gunning back and forth with opponents all night long. I won't go as far as saying that the Cavaliers are effective on defense because they do allow a lot of points but they are decent and they do get the job done on enough possessions to battle night in and night out. The key to this game is keeping the Canes off the board from three point land because not many teams can knock em down from beyond the arc the way the Canes can in recent games and Virginia has not exactly done the best of jobs defending the outside perimeter. Having said that, we will see something a bit different tonight. Virginia is going to force Miami to go inside and they are going to make their bench deep by fouling a lot. The Hurricanes are shooting only 65.0% from the free throw line their last five games and if things don't work from the outside, Miami is in trouble. I say that because I don't think they have the size or inside toughness to hang with Virginia at home and the Canes have brought down only 8.0 offensive rebounds per game their last five games. The Cavaliers don't allow many second chance points at home I can promise you that. I refuse to back Miami with the way their guards have played lately averaging only 12.4 assists per game in their last five games and turning the ball over 13.8 times per game in those games. Virginia is very aggressive defensively so expect them to force a lot of turnovers and create some fast break opportunities seeing how they have forced 15.2 turnovers per game in their last five games with 7.2 steals per game. Believe it or not I think Miami is going to struggle to score at times in this game.

The Virginia Cavaliers are a team I will always trust when they play at home and they have made me some cash a few times this season. They come into this game scoring 69.0 points per game in their last five games despite not shooting the ball well from the floor. Seeing how they don't have any real sharp shooters on this team, the focus tonight is going to be to work the ball inside and get some points off some penetration down the lanes. I say that because if Miami does anything well it's take away open looks and easy shots from the outside but again this is not where Virginia wants to set up shop so it won't matter much. For a team that does not shoot all that well from the floor, the Cavaliers have nailed 39.1% of their shots from three point range in their last five games at 7.2 three pointers made per game in those games. Miami has had issues with teams unloading on them from deep range as their last five opponents have made 7.4 three point shots per game. The Canes will probably defend the outside quite a bit tonight so expect Virginia to move around a lot and try to get to the line more than they normally do. The biggest problem for the Canes has been their contain game under the basket as they have allowed 12.6 offensive rebounds per game in their last five games and Virginia is good around the basket with 10.0 offensive boards per game in their last five games. I think the Cavaliers guards can match the Miami guards basket for basket and pass for pass. The ultimate difference in this game is going to be Virginia's ability to take away the ball compared to Miami's inability to force enough turnovers as their last five opponents have turned the ball over only 11.4 times per game in their last five games. This is a huge home game for Virginia and they are going to take care of business. Great spot for them.

Time to get a bit trendy with you guys. Miami has covered the spread their last five times when playing on a Thursday and they have been a pretty damn good bet in ACC Conference play the last two weeks but that time is coming to an end tonight. I refuse to bet on the Hurricanes when they are favored in a game because most of their success against the spread has been as an underdog and they are actually 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games when pegged as the favorite by Vegas so expect a meltdown of some sorts by the Canes tonight. Virginia is in a spot they love tonight as they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog and they, much like Miami, are 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus ACC Conference opponents. Covering the spread at home has been an issue at times the last two seasons for Virginia but this game means a lot to this team tonight and they need this win more than any other game on the season. In case you have not followed these two teams the last four or five years, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and tonight should be no different. This game is going to go back and forth but it will be the Virginia guards who takeover this game late and who win it for the home team. I love the home dog here, they are due at home.

Trend of the Game: The Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.


Virginia 70, Miami 57





:toast:





One more in the books, got three more wagers tonight and they are on some big games. Again I am looking to really get some kind of streak going in time for tournament action.
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[jimmyshivers]

Not sure how UVA can force Miami to go inside unless they just don't guard anyone. Wahoo opponents are shooting 38.1 % of their shots from 3 land in the last 5 games, mainly because they are getting so many good looks. If Miami is hot from outside (which they usually are) this game shouldnt be close. Best of luck regardless

 

[MistaFlava]

Here is the big one for tonight. I know a lot of people are talking trap but I have learned not to buy into that trap bullshit with these college kids because sometimes the lines are just bad and that is a known fact. Well this line is horrendous if you ask me and I am pounding it. PLAY OF THE MONTH!

View attachment 6516 Memphis Tigers -4.5 (50 Units) View attachment 6517

***PLAY OF THE MONTH***

The Memphis Tigers are one of the only teams in the Country that lost a bunch of players from their NCAA Title Game team from last year and have managed to be just as good this season despite the losses. Not only does that mean they have great coaching but they have a great core of guys who know the system. Memphis comes into this game averaging 72.6 points per game in their last five games and they have managed to shoot a very decent 44.5% from the floor in those games which is still above NCAA average for those games. UAB is not a team many people know about and at first glance the fact that they don't allow many points per game can be misleading because they play in the CUSA Conference and yet they have allowed their last five opponents to shoot 46.6% from the floor. Bad news against Memphis. The Tigers have not shot the ball well from beyond the arc in their last five games but that is not their game and that should workout anyways tonight as UAB forces everything inside and they allow only 12.4 three point shot attempts per game in their last five games. What Memphis does best is get to the free throw line and put opposing teams in foul trouble early as they have been to the line 26.6 times per game in those games and believe this or not but MEMPHIS IS SHOOTING 79.7% FROM THE FREE THROW LINE THEIR LAST FIVE GAMES. UAB does not have the depth to get into foul trouble so Memphis should score with ease. The Blazers will try to slow this thing down but it won't work. Memphis brings down enough rebounds per game that UAB should be stuck in long basketless droughts. UAB has been successful this season because they force a lot of turnovers but the Memphis guards have turned the ball over only 10.8 times per game in their last five games. This game won't even be close, Memphis will crash the boards on both ends of the court and they will make a second half run that puts this game away for good. The fact that they can actually make free throws now makes them a much better team than last year.

The UAB Blazers...who??? Yeah I asked the same thing earlier this week when I saw this game featured on Thursday night. I know this team has played well this season and their home crowd should be jacked up for this game but cmon guys, this has to be one of the most overrated teams in college basketball right now because they have beat up on weak conference opponents and the line is reflective of how overrated they are. Yes they average 77.4 points per game in their last five games and shoot 50.0% from the floor in those games but again that was against a bunch of weak defenses that are not battle tested. Memphis is going to shut these clowns down as they have allowed only 48.8 points per game in their last five games and those last five opponents have shot only 36.4% from the floor in those games. What makes anyone think that won't happen again tonight? The Blazers have shot the lights out from three point range the last three games but that ends right here, right now as Memphis has allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 29.1% from three point range and have allowed only 3.2 three pointers made per game in those games (that's half the NCAA average for those games). That will no doubt send UAB scrambling to find something inside but lookout guys, because Memphis' last five opponents have been to the free throw line only 12.6 times per game and the chances down there are limited. UAB is a small team, they average only 27.6 rebounds per game and only 6.4 offensive boards per game in those games. If you're not big and tough, you're not beating the Tigers. The guard play for UAB has been above average as they move the ball well and they don't turn it over much but they have not seen a defense like this all season as Memphis does not allow ball movement of any kind in their zone, they have allowed only 7.0 assists per game in their last five games, have forced 17.0 turnovers per game in those games on 9.0 steals per game in those games. They also have 6.2 blocks per game down low and unless UAB can shoot the lights out from downtown, Memphis is going to win this game by 20-30+, no doubt about it. The Blazers won't even know what hit them after the Tigers storm through here tonight.

When it comes to betting on teams in college basketball you have to back teams that can win games and win a lot of games. Memphis is one of those teams that wins big most of the time and they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games versus teams that have a straight up winning record on the year. That means they bring their best effort forward against good teams and when doubted by oddsmakers. They are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall and they have covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 games as a favorite. Another thing I have to mention is that Memphis has covered the spread in 10 of their last 13 games played on a Thursday night and this seems to be the one day of the week you can count on these guys. Everyone who says they have made money betting on UAB this season has surely done it with this team as a favorite because they do beat up quite nicely on conference opponents but the Blazers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog and only 1-5 ATS in their last six games that follow a win of 20+ points the game before. Not only has Memphis covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams but the favorite is also 5-1 ATS and I don't think it will matter that Memphis is on the road for this one (most of those ATS covers have been at home against UAB). BLOWOUT CITY BABY!

Trend of the Game: Memphis is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.


Memphis 84, UAB 40





:toast:





There it is, my big play of the month and I cannot wait to cash this bitch. I now have two more plays for the night and they are later starts so I will work on that when I get the chance. Off to a conference call for now...
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[MistaFlava]

I was either betting on the Golden Bears here or I was taking Stanford to upset UCLA but I chose California just because I have been burned by these guys playing at home (bet the other side) one too many times this season so why not ride this bitch to the bank...

View attachment 6520 California Golden Bears -4 (10 Units) View attachment 6519

The USC Trojans have been one of my favorite teams to fade all season because they suck on the road and they suck in the second half of games. The Trojans, despite the talent on their team, suck offensively and they average only 60.2 points per game in their last five games and in those games they have managed to shoot 44.7% from the floor. The Golden Bears don't have the best defense in this conference but they do allow only 66.8 points per game in their last five games and their improved play has been a big reason why this team has been able to win a lot more games then they have in the past. USC is not going to attempt many three point shots in this game and that is a known fact which is probably good news because if anything the Golden Bears were allowing too many open looks from beyond the arc. I just don't know how USC is going to score in this game because they lack the players to attack the lanes in this game and they have managed to get to the free throw line only 16.4 times per game in their last five games and shoot only 69.5% from the free throw line in those games. California does not allow anything down low, they don't foul much and they force you to take bad shots or give you the mid-range jumper and dare you to make it. These two teams are pretty even when it comes to size and neither one of them is going to have an edge on the boards tonight. However, guard play is where this game is going to be won and lost as the Trojan guards have led this team to only 11.2 assists per game in their last five games and have turned the ball over 14.2 times per game. That should be enough for the Golden Bears to hold these guys at bay and turn things around the other way for some points. USC is going to spend periods of time in this game without points from field goals and that will eventually put them away for good.

The California Golden Bears have been an outstanding team at home this season where they are 15-1 SU on the year and I don't see why they would stop being effective in this game. The Golden Bears come into this game averaging 74.2 points per game in their last five games and they have managed to get that done on 48.2% shooting from the floor. They are one of the teams I think could really make some noise in the PAC 10 Conference tournament if they are on their game and beating them at home has been next to impossible for just about every team that has come to this place. No different tonight guys. USC cannot keep up with the Bears. The Trojans are decent defensively and they love to slow games down to a snails pace but their last five opponents have shot 45.0% from the floor and that should be enough room for Cal to run the show. California is not a flashy team and they don't have guys who can shoot the lights out from three point range but they run a very sound offense and they do get to the line enough times that teams with a short bench are going to run into some problems. The Golden Bears have shot 83.3% from the free throw line their last five games and USC is very weak in the middle so it would be wise for California to attack the hoop. The Trojans have sent their last five opponents to the line 21.8 times per game. Unlike the Trojans, California's guards have been pretty damn good their last five games averaging 13.6 assists per game, barely turning over the ball and running this offense almost to perfection. USC is in trouble tonight because they don't have the offense to keep up with Cal and I just don't see how they can keep this thing within 10 points. Until a very high scoring team comes in here and shuts these Golden Bears down, there are going to continue to feast on pathetic unbalanced teams like the Trojans and this should be another huge home win.

I have to admit I have not watched much USC basketball this season but one thing I know is that they can sometimes pull off some surprise games and cover some big spreads but that's not happening tonight, not there, not with these fans. The Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus opponents from the PAC 10 Conference and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus teams that have a winning percentage better than .600% on the season (like Cal does). I already told you guys its a bad idea to go against California at home because they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games, they are a very nice 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 0.5 to 6.5 points and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus PAC 10 Conference opponents. California is also 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite and they are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games versus a team that has a straight up winning record on the season. I don't think Cal looked good at all in their last game so this is a great bounce back spot for these guys and just to let you know right now, when a team is favored in this series there is a reason as the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and the home team has covered 5 of the last 7. I am going with the better team and the home team!

Trend of the Game: California is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.


California 67, USC 47





:toast:





Four down, one to go and I am ready to drop another big one although I will hold back and keep it a bit smaller. I was considering betting huge cash on this game but decided to go with Memphis as the big play instead. By now should already be a good night. Leaving work soon, time for one more writeup.
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[MistaFlava]

Like I said before I would love to have a huge night so here is hoping that I am up some big money at this point. I work hard on most nights to provide winners but for some reason it has not been happening the way I want it to this season. Still lots of time to get hot, lets do it...

View attachment 6523 Washington Huskies -4 (25 Units) View attachment 6522

***PAC 10 PLAY OF THE NIGHT***

Take that Arizona State bullshit out of my face tonight please. I don't believe this team is capable of winning this game nor do I believe they can keep their TOP 15 spot in the rankings beyond this weekend. The Sun Devils come into this game averaging only 64.8 points per game in their last five games despite shooting 49.5% from the floor in those games and outscoring their opponents by 8.2 points per game in those games. I actually don't see things getting any better for this team tonight against a Washington defense that has allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 42.3% from the floor and that are going to bother the Sun Devils all night long. Arizona State is an outstanding three point shooting team and they have shot the lights out their last five games from beyond the arc but unless they can find some sort of inside game to match Washington, they are not going to come close in this one. They have been to the line only 16.8 times per game in their last five games and that's just not good enough because this game is going to come down to who can force who into foul trouble the earliest. Washington's last five opponents have been to the line only 19.4 times per game and believe me when I say that the Sun Devils are going to have a bunch of one and dones tonight. I say that because they average a pathetic 25.4 rebounds per game in their last five games on a horrendous 6.2 offensive boards per game. That just won't work against a crazy good rebounding team like Washington that have cleaned house on the boards the last five games. With a guy like Harden on this team the Sun Devils can do anything on offense but this is a dangerous spot for Arizona State because Washington has forced 15.2 turnovers per game in their last five games on 7.8 steals per game and I just don't see how the Sun Devils can keep up without second chance point opportunities and inside toughness around both baskets (they really don't match up with the Huskies in this one). Big loss for the Sun Devils if you ask me.

The Washington Huskies have made me some nice chunks of cash this season and I will continue betting on them to be a surprise team in the NCAA Tournament (well more of a darkhorse to win). They come into this game averaging a whopping 78.6 points per game in their last five games and in those games they have managed to shoot 47.6% from the floor which is much more than the Sun Devils can handle. I have to admit that Arizona State's defense is one of the best in the Nation and there is no doubt that, they do shut opponents down but they are not the same away from home and I think Washington is going to have their way tonight. What I like about Washington is that they love the fast pace and they will make Arizona State play at their pace tonight. Only 16.4% of their shot attempts the last five games have been from three point range so they love to run, get to the line and put opponents into foul trouble. We are talking about a team that has been to the free throw line 26.4 times per game in their last five games and that has made 73.5% of those free throws. Arizona State doesn't allow much penetration on the inside but tonight they are going to take care of business from both the inside and the outside because if you take away their game down low, they still hit 37.5% of their shots from three point range in their last five games. The Huskies are monsters around the boards too averaging 36.4 rebounds per game in their last five games on 11.4 offensive rebounds and Arizona State won't have a clue what happened to them on the boards here. I do have to say that the Huskies guard play has been a problem because their ball movement has been lacklustre lately and they turn the ball over way too much but having said that, Arizona State has forced a pathetic 9.8 turnovers per game in their last five games and I think the Huskies are going to play their best game of the season scoring from all over the place in this one. All you have to do is take away their three point shooting and Arizona State doesn't know what to do on offense or on defense which means Washington can use their bench and attack as much as they need to in order to open up gaps and free up some of those outside shooters. Washington rolls in this home game.

What you have here tonight is two good teams who have both cashed in big time for their bettors this season going up against each other where someone will lose. Arizona State has done all they could as underdogs and as road underdogs and they have been worth backing the last three or four times but they can't continue to cover spreads in conference and on the road and this is probably their toughest road opponent of the season so I am going against them. I actually see them folding in this game and getting absolutely killed. Washington has covered the spread in five straight games now which means they are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus PAC 10 Conference opponents. We are talking about a team that loves showing up against very good teams as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus opponents that have a winning percentage better than .600% on the season. The Huskies have covered the spread in 9 of their last 13 home games but for some reason the road team has kicked some serious ass in this series the six or seven times out. All of that is about to change as Arizona State is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings and Washington is the hottest team in the PAC 10 Conference right now. This game is going to go back and forth but in the end the Sun Devils don't have the offense to compete on the road in a place like this and Washington rolls us right down to the bank for some cash money!

Trend of the Game: Washington is 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.


Washington 85, Arizona State 44





:toast:





Call me crazy for that scoreline but it's just what popped into my head in terms of making sense with the total and I do see Washington scoring 70-80 points in this one but I don't see more than 140 points scored so I had to keep Arizona State on a low points count. Those are just for fun by the way. GOOD LUCK TO ALL TONIGHT $$$$$$$$$$$
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[cashflowmatters]

Here is the big one for tonight. I know a lot of people are talking trap but I have learned not to buy into that trap bullshit with these college kids because sometimes the lines are just bad and that is a known fact. Well this line is horrendous if you ask me and I am pounding it. PLAY OF THE MONTH!

View attachment 6516 Memphis Tigers -4.5 (50 Units) View attachment 6517​

***PLAY OF THE MONTH***​

The Memphis Tigers are one of the only teams in the Country that lost a bunch of players from their NCAA Title Game team from last year and have managed to be just as good this season despite the losses. Not only does that mean they have great coaching but they have a great core of guys who know the system. Memphis comes into this game averaging 72.6 points per game in their last five games and they have managed to shoot a very decent 44.5% from the floor in those games which is still above NCAA average for those games. UAB is not a team many people know about and at first glance the fact that they don't allow many points per game can be misleading because they play in the CUSA Conference and yet they have allowed their last five opponents to shoot 46.6% from the floor. Bad news against Memphis. The Tigers have not shot the ball well from beyond the arc in their last five games but that is not their game and that should workout anyways tonight as UAB forces everything inside and they allow only 12.4 three point shot attempts per game in their last five games. What Memphis does best is get to the free throw line and put opposing teams in foul trouble early as they have been to the line 26.6 times per game in those games and believe this or not but MEMPHIS IS SHOOTING 79.7% FROM THE FREE THROW LINE THEIR LAST FIVE GAMES. UAB does not have the depth to get into foul trouble so Memphis should score with ease. The Blazers will try to slow this thing down but it won't work. Memphis brings down enough rebounds per game that UAB should be stuck in long basketless droughts. UAB has been successful this season because they force a lot of turnovers but the Memphis guards have turned the ball over only 10.8 times per game in their last five games. This game won't even be close, Memphis will crash the boards on both ends of the court and they will make a second half run that puts this game away for good. The fact that they can actually make free throws now makes them a much better team than last year.​

The UAB Blazers...who??? Yeah I asked the same thing earlier this week when I saw this game featured on Thursday night. I know this team has played well this season and their home crowd should be jacked up for this game but cmon guys, this has to be one of the most overrated teams in college basketball right now because they have beat up on weak conference opponents and the line is reflective of how overrated they are. Yes they average 77.4 points per game in their last five games and shoot 50.0% from the floor in those games but again that was against a bunch of weak defenses that are not battle tested. Memphis is going to shut these clowns down as they have allowed only 48.8 points per game in their last five games and those last five opponents have shot only 36.4% from the floor in those games. What makes anyone think that won't happen again tonight? The Blazers have shot the lights out from three point range the last three games but that ends right here, right now as Memphis has allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 29.1% from three point range and have allowed only 3.2 three pointers made per game in those games (that's half the NCAA average for those games). That will no doubt send UAB scrambling to find something inside but lookout guys, because Memphis' last five opponents have been to the free throw line only 12.6 times per game and the chances down there are limited. UAB is a small team, they average only 27.6 rebounds per game and only 6.4 offensive boards per game in those games. If you're not big and tough, you're not beating the Tigers. The guard play for UAB has been above average as they move the ball well and they don't turn it over much but they have not seen a defense like this all season as Memphis does not allow ball movement of any kind in their zone, they have allowed only 7.0 assists per game in their last five games, have forced 17.0 turnovers per game in those games on 9.0 steals per game in those games. They also have 6.2 blocks per game down low and unless UAB can shoot the lights out from downtown, Memphis is going to win this game by 20-30+, no doubt about it. The Blazers won't even know what hit them after the Tigers storm through here tonight.​

When it comes to betting on teams in college basketball you have to back teams that can win games and win a lot of games. Memphis is one of those teams that wins big most of the time and they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games versus teams that have a straight up winning record on the year. That means they bring their best effort forward against good teams and when doubted by oddsmakers. They are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall and they have covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 games as a favorite. Another thing I have to mention is that Memphis has covered the spread in 10 of their last 13 games played on a Thursday night and this seems to be the one day of the week you can count on these guys. Everyone who says they have made money betting on UAB this season has surely done it with this team as a favorite because they do beat up quite nicely on conference opponents but the Blazers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog and only 1-5 ATS in their last six games that follow a win of 20+ points the game before. Not only has Memphis covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams but the favorite is also 5-1 ATS and I don't think it will matter that Memphis is on the road for this one (most of those ATS covers have been at home against UAB). BLOWOUT CITY BABY!​

Trend of the Game: Memphis is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.​

Memphis 84, UAB 40​

:toast:​

There it is, my big play of the month and I cannot wait to cash this bitch. I now have two more plays for the night and they are later starts so I will work on that when I get the chance. Off to a conference call for now...​

:think2::think2: hmmmm I actually was leaning the other way, will have to take closer look. 66% of the public on Memphis. After further review I still like UAB, gl on ur action.

 

[BBBILLY]

Isn't it senior night at UAB?

 

[elmtree]

-3.5 2h (-105) at bookmaker, i jumped on this

 

[MistaFlava]

sorry about Virginia and WVU...the Neers was a bad play, Cavaliers blew it late.

Memphis looking good...

 

[MarksMoneymakers]

Win or lose, I love to read your write-ups. They are very imformative. I also feel better about my picks when you are on the same side. Keep them coming.

 

[MistaFlava]

Man what a complete waste of time and money yesterday. Some really bad losses.


RECAP


West Virginia -4.5...This was my only bad wager of the night. The Mountaineers were pathetic from the floor and this was a well deserved loss, they never really had the cover.

Virginia +3.5...The Cavaliers covered the entire game. It was 57-55 with 1:06 and then McClinton hit that huge three and that was the ball game for the Cavs. Frustrating to cover all game and lose like that.

Memphis -4.5...I know it was closer than I thought but my writeup talked about Memphis making clutch free throws and pulling away at some point in the second half and that is what happened.

California -4...With 6:46 left the Golden Bears were up by 10 points and they failed to close the door. In overtime they were up 77-72 with :30 left and again could not close the game. Pathetic.

Washington -4...I cannot believe this. Sure it went to overtime and that is fine but they huskies were up by 72-67 with about :20 left and last chance for USC, they missed, offensive board, missed again, offensive board, and then three pointer. Two foul shots for Washington to push...of course Dentmon misses one and they win by 3.





Some bad luck all around, some were bad plays I guess but man what a bad night, looked good for a while. Back at it again tonight and on the weekend. Frustrating shit.

 

[tlee4lizard]

Frustrating is not the word for it i had cali wash and st. Marys look at the play by play for that one they were covering and let pepperdine go down and score and easy uncontested bucket then held the ball for the 1 pt loss.