MistaFlava's 2008 CBB Record: 0-3-1 ATS (-22.00 Units)
Well I am back for another season guys and hopefully this is a good one. I have done very well in the past capping college hoops and although I know it's early right now, I will have some good leans on games so I will keep my plays small for now and try to get a good feel for the season. My writeups will come only when I get a really good read on the teams I am betting on which could take a few days.
This should be an interesting first few weeks with a couple of potential big games coming up before Christmas. I wish everyone the best in 2008-2009 and let the march to the madness begin right here, right now.
1 unit = $100
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Well I am back for another season guys and hopefully this is a good one. I have done very well in the past capping college hoops and although I know it's early right now, I will have some good leans on games so I will keep my plays small for now and try to get a good feel for the season. My writeups will come only when I get a really good read on the teams I am betting on which could take a few days.
This should be an interesting first few weeks with a couple of potential big games coming up before Christmas. I wish everyone the best in 2008-2009 and let the march to the madness begin right here, right now.
1 unit = $100
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Thursday, November 20
Fairfield Stags +10.5 (5 Units)
Fairfield Stags +10.5 (5 Units)
I know there is no such thing as a huge public play in games like this but this is the only betting option on the board early this morning, the game is on TV and degenerates like you and me are going to have money on this thing regardless. So about 78% of the betting public has the Virginia Tech Hokies to win this tournament game. Do not forget this game is being playing in San Juan Puerto Rico and the start is pretty damn early. We have already seen two sides to this Fairfield team early this season. The first being their 27 point blowout loss to Memphis in their opener and the second being a 16 point win in a non-lined game. On the other side of the court we have Birginia Tech who are 2-0 SU to start the season but have played virtually nobody and have two non-lined wins under their belts. Having said that a win is a win and this team is confident. These two teams met once in the past and the game was decided by single digits as Virginia Tech managed to walk out of that game alive with a 65-61 win as -2 point favorites. What has me concerned is Virginia Tech's game readiness because their last win was over Mount St. Mary's and it was by only five points. So far this season the team is shooting only 39.4% from the floor and they have not rebouded well at all, settling for shots from the outside and one and outs. Fairfield on the other hand is shooting a decent 45.3% from the floor and they do have quite a few guys who can shoot the three ball with some sort of accuracy. Virginia Tech's guard play has just been piss poor so far this season and I don't know that it will be any different in such an early game for these kids. The Stags have a very aggressive zone defense that forces turnovers and if you ask me this number is just way too high. Fairfield has never done all that well in Neutral Site games while Virginia Tech has. Having said that, Fairfield has some experienced players, many of them know the guys on Tech and this could be a closer game than most people think. I like the underdog in the early game.
Trend of the Game: Virginia Tech is 1-6 ATS in their last seven Thursday games.
Fairfield 69, Virginia Tech 68
Trend of the Game: Virginia Tech is 1-6 ATS in their last seven Thursday games.
Fairfield 69, Virginia Tech 68
Xavier Musketeers -4 (10 Units)
How in the world can you not love this play? I mean sure this another game being played in Puerto Rico as part of the O'Reilly's Auto Parts tournament but the Musketeers have to be considered one of the teams to beat in this tournament and the line is just too low here. This seems to be yet another pretty big public side play but it doesn't matter because I think the much better of the two teams can come out of the gates and never really look back in this one. Both teams are off to 2-0 SU starts with Missouri covering the spread in their only lined game and Xavier losing on the spread in their only lined game. A lot of cappers have talked about fading Xavier early in the season because they are an overrated bunch living on last year's play at the end of the season. Missouri were 28 point winners as -13.5 favorites over Chattanooga on Tuesday and they looked pretty damn good in that win. Xavier on the other hand beat IUPU in their opener in a blowout and then beat Toledo on Monday by 16 points (missing the spread by 1.5) and still playing well enough to have me confident here. I think this game is a matter of taking out Missouri's Leo Lyons and you have this game. He is really the only threat the Tigers have against this Musketeers defense and they should force other players to make something happen. The oddsmakers are giving Missouri tons of respect here because they average 94.5 points per game in their two games this season and shot 46.9% in those games. However, Xavier's defense is going to have none of that in this one as they have allowed only 54.0 points per game this season and allowed their two opponents to shoot only 30.9% from the field in those games. They have also shot 50.0% from the floor and scored a decent 76.0 points per game in their two games. Missouri is probably the bigger and tougher team and they will get second chance points but Xavier is all about finesse and good coaching and in the end they are going to win this game and cover the spread. Missouri has always been a bad ATS basketball bet no matter how you look at things while Xavier are 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus Big 12 Conference opponents and have covered the spread in 26 of their last 34 neutral site games which is incredible.
Trend of the Game: Xavier is 26-8 ATS in their last 34 neutral site games.
Xavier 73, Missouri 63
Trend of the Game: Xavier is 26-8 ATS in their last 34 neutral site games.
Xavier 73, Missouri 63
Chattanooga Mocs +22 (5 Units)
Very tough decision to go against Memphis in any game if you ask me but it was not a tough decision to fade them in a game they really don't care about because they know they can just stroll through this thing and win with comfort. The whole idea behind this game is obviously not to just win but to come out of here well rested and still ready to go further down the line in this tournament when they have to play against some of the big name schools. Memphis is actually 2-0 SU this season and 2-0 ATS in those games as they beat Fairfield by 27 points and beat Massachusetts by 22 points this past week. However, I want to keep reminding you guys that this is a road game (well neutral site game) being played in San Juan Puerto Rico and things are very different early in the season when you are far away from home. There are too many times last season where I was on Memphis only to have them let the opposing team back within spread distance near the end of the game while resting some of their big name players. That should happen again here in this game. Chattanooga looked pretty damn bad in both their games this season allowing at least 100 points both times and losing by 28 points to Missouri and losing by 29 points against Tennessee. With both those teams ranked lower than Memphis you probably wonder how these guys can possibly cover this spread. Despite the piss poor defense, I don't think the Memphis offense will be in full gear this afternoon with this being an earlier than usual start and this being an easy win for the Tigers. They are shooting only 23.8% from the three point range in their two games and the Mocs should give these guys a run for their money on both the offensive and defensive boards. One thing Chattanooga has done well the last two seasons is recover from bad losses as they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games coming off a loss of 20+ points the game before. As much as I would love to back Memphis in this game, you have to understand that they have a bad tendency to play down at their opponents level for long periods of time in games and that is exactly what I think is going to happen in this game here. The Mocs are going to stick around long enough to keep this game under 20 points and seeing how this is their big game in this tournament, you have to expect them to keep their best player in there until the very end...should help cover the spread.
Trend of the Game: Chattanooga is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss of 20+ points.
Memphis 82, Chattanooga 72
:toast:
Trend of the Game: Chattanooga is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss of 20+ points.
Memphis 82, Chattanooga 72
:toast:
