MistaFlava's CBB Sunday Mar. 1 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2008 CBB Record: 83-85-4 ATS (-27.20 Units)

I am so happy to have March finally come strolling around. I needed this month to show up. Time to turn things around big time. Okay so we are in the home stretch of the college basketball season and I am no satisfied with my results. I have not been able to go on any kind of streak and have not been all that helpful to anyone who visits my threads. My solution to this is to go back to my old school capping ways that made me more than 40k on the season in the NFL. I have tried too hard to mess around with systems, PS3 plays and all sorts of bullshit that I have sorta lost my way a bit.

So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.

1 unit = $100


You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!

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Sunday, March 1



Rutgers Scarlet Knights +3 (10 Units)

The Providence Friars come into this game averaging 76.1 points per game on the road this season and in those games they have managed to shoo only 43.4% from the floor which means they like to control the pace and push the floor but the fact that miss a lot means the other team always has a chance. Most people know Rutgers as that shitty team that always allows a bunch of points but they are actually not that bad at home this year where they have allowed opponents to score only 64.2 points per game and in those games have allowed those same opponents to shoot only 40.6% from the floor. We all know how much Providence likes to take shots from beyond the arc and they do it quite both at home and on the road but having said that, Rutgers is not going to allow them to unload from downtown in this one as they have allowed their opponents at home to shoot only 28.5% this season from three point range. Providence is also a very aggressive team that loves going to the basket, attacking the middle and drawing fouls and they are very good at it but on the road they are shooting only 67.6% from the free throw line and that could be a problem down the stretch. That and the fact that Rutgers home opponents have been to the free throw line only 19.0 times per game this season. I know Providence is a big team and they do bring down quite a few rebounds per game but Rutgers is very good around the basket at home and their home opponents this season have managed to bring down only 30.4 rebounds per game. You can like the Friars ball movement all you want and yes they have some guys who can really move the ball around but Providence has turned the ball over 15.1 times per game on the road this season and that is going to cost them. Rutgers never just sits back and watches teams move the ball around, they attack and force teams to take bad shots by cutting down lanes and forcing a lot of perimeter juggling. That would be why their home opponents have averaged only 10.2 assists per game this season. I don't care how much Providence thinks they can win the inside battle because Rutgers is averaging a whopping 7.9 blocks per home game and I think Providence is going to struggle to score at times in this game. Not the right spot for these guys.

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have made me some money this season and Rosario is really turning into a force to be reckoned and he definitely deserves freshman of the year in the Big East considerations if not the win. Rutgers comes into this game averaging only 66.2 points per game at home this season and they have done that on 43.0% shooting from the floor which is probably why they have not won many games but having said that...Providence can't stop shit on the road. The Friars have allowed their road opponents this season to average a crazy 83.9 points per game (the NCAA average is 68.1 per game) and those same opponents have managed to shoot 47.3% from the floor which should give Rutgers one hell of a chance to win this game if not win it big. Rutgers doesn't shoot much from three point range at home this season and that's probably a good thing but should they choose to unload from downtown, Providence has issues guarding the perimeter as their road opponents average 7.4 three pointers made per game this season on 34.9% shooting from beyond the arc in those games. Much like Providence, the Scarlet Knights love getting to the line and attacking the basket which is why they have been to the free throw line 20.9 times per home game this season while Providence has had trouble containing teams inside on the road this season sending them to the free throw line 21.9 times per game. Rutgers will more than hold their own under the basket in this game as they have brought down a whopping 36.4 rebounds per home game this season (11.4 of those offensive boards) which gives them a huge edge against a sometimes lazy Providence team that has allowed their road opponents this season to bring down 34.6 rebounds per game away from home with 12.8 offensive rebounds per game and I think they are in trouble here. The guard play has been weak all season for Rutgers because they don't have a true ball handling guards who can control the floor and move the ball around and they do turn it over way too much but Providence is fundamentally disfunctional on defense away from home and their road opponents average 18.6 assists per game while the Friars force only 11.9 turnovers per game away from home. Not going to work in this one. This is a great chance for Rutgers to work the ball inside, get to the line and get a lot of chances around the basket. They will have several options on offense that they have not had in many of their home games and I cannot believe they are home underdogs here.

This is not one of the best games on the board today but the line was nice and I have actually watched Rutgers play quite a bit at home this season (don't ask why because I have no clue whatsoever). Providence comes into this game having had recent success when favored in games but let me tell you right now that they have sucked ass against weaker teams and they have not been all that good away from home. I mean you are betting on a team that has covered the spread in only 2 of their last 6 Big East Conference games and you are also betting on a Providence team that is only 1-4 ATS in their last five visits to Rutgers with the home team covering the spread in 7 of the last 9 games in this series so again approach with caution if you like Providence in this game. Rutgers on the other hand has not been nice to their home supporting fans covering the spread in only one of their last six home games so with that being said, this could be the game they reward their fans with a big win. I mean Rutgers is 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog and apart from some bad home games, they have actually covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games overall so I like their chances here. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven games that follow a straight up loss and what I can tell you right now is that this game does mean something to both teams because everyone is still trying to fight for seedings in the Big East Tournament where anything is possible. Believe it or not the Scarlet Knights should win their final two home games and it all starts with this one here.

Trend of the Game: Rutgers is 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.


Rutgers 67, Providence 64





More to come...
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[MistaFlava]

adding...



Michigan State Spartans +1 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***

What a big game this is for the Michigan State Spartans who are now feeling the pressure from Purdue when it comes to a share of the #1 spot in the Big Ten Conference. A loss here would put them in a tie heading into the final week of the season and that is not what they want. The Spartans come into this game averaging only 61.2 points per game in their last five games and in those games they have managed to shoot only 41.6% from the floor which is pretty damn bad but honestly it meets Big Ten Conference standards if you ask me and I am not concerned at all. We all know this is going to be a defensive battle and what this will come down to is who can make the most of their defensive stops. The Spartans have really shot the ball poorly from three point range recently but the Big Ten has nothing to do with three point shots and only 27.5% of their shot attempts the last five games have been from beyond the arc. The Spartans are going to win this game with their ability to get to the basket and penetrate the lanes against these tough Big Ten defenses. Michigan State has been to the free throw line 20.6 times per game in their last five games and they have made 72.8% of their free throws in those games. I know getting to the line is tough against Illinois because of how well they defend the zone but if anyone can throw them off and break that zone it would be the Spartans and that's exactly what they are going to do in this game. The Spartans are also a much better rebounding team than Illinois as despite the slow paced games they have brought down 32.2 rebounds per game in their last five games with 10.4 offensive rebounds (both well above the NCAA averages). This game will be all about the guard play of both teams and advantage goes to Michigan State as the Spartans average 14.0 assists per game in their last five games and despite turning it over a bit more than I would like, the Fighting Illini have forced only 12.2 turnovers their last five games and they won't be all that effective. Things won't be easy for the Spartans in this game but they are not about to lose a another Big Ten road game. There are too many big game players on this team and the more the Spartans push the floor, the more they are going to create openings in this Illinois defense.

The Illinois Fighting Illini are not the best team in this conference but you could make a case that they are the toughest to beat and toughest to beat at home. Having said that, they are beatable as Penn State showed us last week and they don't have enough offense to sustain offensive runs by their opponents. The Illini come into this game averaging only 56.0 points per game in their last five games and in those games they have managed to shoot 45.7% from the floor. Having said that and knowing that this is above Big Ten Conference averages and standards, Michigan State has the best defensive team in the conference and they have allowed only 53.0 points per game in their last five games and have allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 38.3% from the floor in those games. I know for a fact that Illinois is one of the best three point shooting teams in the Big Ten (that's not saying much) and they have the ability to really put away games with their shots from beyond the arc. However, the one thing Michigan State does not allow is teams to unload on them from three point range as they have allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 25.0% from three point range and that should force Illinois to move things inside. However, the only problem there is that Illinois is going to be outmatched inside as they have been to the free throw line only 7.2 times per game in their last five games, they have made only 3.6 free throws per game in those games and are making only 50.0% of their freebies in those games. I also don't see how Illinois is going to match up with the Spartans on the boards in this one as they have brought down only 27.6 rebounds per game in their last five games and only 7.4 of those have been offensive boards. No team in the Country defends their own basket better than the Spartans so unless Illinois can shoot the lights out in this one, they are in big time trouble. The Spartans last five opponents have grabbed only 22.2 rebounds per game and only 5.0 offensive rebounds per game. It's hard to argue that any team in this conference has better guard play than Illinois because they move the ball well, they don't turn it over much and their offense comes from the play of their guards. However, moving the ball around against Michigan State is very tough and the Spartans do force 13.6 turnovers per game in their last five games. There's just not much you can do against this Michigan State tight defense and Illinois will struggle when all they can do is jack up shots and not come close to getting rebounds.

Both teams want this game and both teams claim to need this game so this should be interesting. Having said that, what I know is that every time I have backed Michigan State in a game that matters, they have come through big for me. They are the kind of team that always show up to play when you doubt them and the general philosophy right now seems to be that Illinois is better at home, both teams are even so let's go with the fighting Illini right? Well think again please. Michigan State is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight road games versus a team that has a home winning percentage better than .600%. They are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight road games and seeing how badly they lost their last time on the road, I just don't see them losing again here. You also have to understand that they have been great coming off ATS losses going 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games that follow a game where they failed to cover the spread. Illinois on the other hand is normally a good home team wager but they are only 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games that follow a game where they allowed less than 50 points and they are only 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games versus a team with a winning road record. Pathetic. More importantly, the Illini are only 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games versus a team that has a road winning percentage better than .600%. The last seven meetings have all been low scoring but this might be a bit different once Michigan State runs out to a big lead. I know the Spartans have never been all that great against Illinois but when their backs are on the wall is when you get their best basketball so take them huge in this game.

Trend of the Game: Illinois is 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games versus a team that has a road winning percentage better than .600%.


Michigan State 67, Illinois 64





More to come...

 

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Maryland +4
Oregon -2




:toast:





I am dropping 10 units on each...no time for writeups, good luck to all!

 

[MistaFlava]

Terps in the bank, pounding the Ducks tonight!

 

[itsmejughead]

new here.....but also on the ducks.....bring it

 

[beerclam20]

Not sure why you pound a team that is 7-20, 1-14 in the Pac 10 ?? good luck regardless.. i just hate betting shit teams and hoping.

 

[MistaFlava]

It was more about the line than the better team and it worked out, something was weird about the line. Ducks showed up second half.

Congrats to all winners today.


3-1 ATS (+34 Units) today

 

[roadreeler57]

I followed small but a win is a win..Thanks

 

[itsmejughead]

got them both...thx ..keep it up