MistaFlava's CBB Monday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis/PLAY OF THE WEEK)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2008 CBB Record: 25-28-4 ATS (-114.50 Units)

I'm at around 50% right now which is not bad because I was down quite a bit in early season action but now that we have entered crunch time and February is here, it's time to really bare down. I won't be releasing big unit plays every day like I have done the last week or so. I only care about the money I win and not the percentage of bets I win so taking home the cash is all that matters and proper Money Management is a must, although I have a feeling I will still drop bombs here and there. That's just the way I roll and if you don't like it I don't really give a shit. Gotta love college hoops a lot more than the NBA and believe me when I say that this is where the money is at despite some of these kids really sucking when the game is on the line. Only in this sport can you have miracle covers. Hope you enjoy my writeups.

1 unit = $100


You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!

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Saturday, January 31


View attachment 6346 Connecticut Huskies +2.5 (50 Units) View attachment 6345

***PLAY OF THE WEEK***

The Connecticut Huskies are one hell of a team and the last time I bet on these guys was as a road favorite a few weeks ago at Notre Dame where they crushed the Irish and really showed the rest of the Big East Conference that they mean business. This is by far their toughest game so far this season and I think these guys are not only talented enough to compete but they are a perfect matchup for Louisville and this is where the Cardinals finally lose a conference games. The Huskies come into this game off a 33 point home win over a very decent Providence team on the weekend and believe me when I say these guys are ready for this game. Connecticut has not played here since the 2007 season when they came here and lost the game by 14 points as a +3 point underdog so although the situation looks very much the same, the circumstances are not and this game is going to go the way of the Huskies. Stop doubting these guys on the road guys. Their last road game saw them do to Depaul as a -13.5 point favorite and come out of that game with a 22 point win. The game before that they went to Notre Dame, broke their 45 game home win streak with an 8 point win. How about their 9 points win at Cincinnati or they win at West Virginia as a +3.5? This is a team that is now 1-5 ATS at home this season but a very impressive 7-2 ATS on the road and that really means something for those considering going against them in this game. Connecticut is averaging a whopping 79.8 points per game in their last five games, they have done that on 46.8% shooting from the floor in those games and that is what you need to get around a very good Cardinals defense that doesn't allow many points and that doesn't allow many open shots meaning their shot percentage defense is very good. What I love about UConn is that unlike other Louisville opponents, they don't try and shoot three pointers left and right to catch up and take the lead against a Cardinals team that is very good at defending the outside perimeter. Instead, the Huskies have been to the line 25.8 times per game in their last five games and despite not having the greatest free throw percentage, they are likely to make Louisville dig deep into their bench in this one to replace guys with foul trouble early in the game. The Cardinals have not faced such a good interior post up team in a long time and this is going to make a huge difference in this game. If you thought Louisville was tough well you are about to meet a tougher team in UConn who have brought down a whopping 41.6 rebounds per game in their last five games (the NCAA average for those games is 31.1) and 14.0 of those rebounds have been of the offensive kind which means they are going to get a lot of second chance points in this game and they are going to destroy Louisville's recent sloppiness down low. The Cardinals have allowed their last five opponents to grab 12.2 offensive rebounds per game in their last five games and that is just not going to fly here against a very tough UConn team that swarms on the offensive glass. Could you ask for better guards or guard play than the recent play of AJ Price and Jerome Dyson? Seriously though. I mean these guys have led this team to 15.2 assists per game in their last five games, they have turned the ball over only 10.0 times per game in those games and both those numbers kill the National average for those games. We all know the Cardinals love to be aggressive and press on the ball and yes the Huskies might take a bit of time to adjust to the pressure but if anyone can handle it it's these two ball handlers and they are going to teach the Cardinals a lesson tonight. Louisville has 9.0 steals per game in their last five games but the Huskies have allowed their last five opponents to average only 4.6 steals per game and that's tremendous. Not a chance Louisville can stop Price and Dyson tonight and even if they contain them, the Huskies will use their big guys up front to score some easy baskets. LOVE UCONN TONIGHT!

The Louisville Cardinals are one of my favorite teams to bet on and they have made me the most money of any team in the NCAA this season, last season and in college football as well. So why the fuck am I going against them tonight? Well because I happen to love UConn in this game and no matter what I have seen around the forums tonight and last night, this is a perfect opportunity to fade the Cardinals. Anyone who watched their game against West Virginia on the weekend knows that they were lucky to get away with the win there. They led by 20 points at the half and somehow let that lead slip away and were up only 4 points with a few minutes left. I pushed on the -6 in that game but I was really pissed off because they looked sloppy, they had a ton of chances to cover the spread and put the game away but instead they messed around, looked horrendous in their offensive sets and had it been a better than the Mountaineers, believe me we would be talking about a Louisville loss. Even prior to that, when challenged at home by better teams, Louisville has been very close to losing and as I mentioned earlier in the writeup, I think the Cardinals should have lost that game at home against the Panthers a few weeks ago but they got lucky, the Panthers collapsed and the Cardinals remained unbeaten in Conference play. BIG WHOOP...this is a completely different game and the Huskies are a much better team, believe me on that. Louisville is now 8-5 ATS at home this season and what you cannot forget is that the only other home game they were challenged apart from the Pittsburgh and West Virginia games was against Kentucky earlier in the year and even that game was a 3 point win when they were a -7.5 favorite in that game. Depending on what line you got in the last game, the Cardinals failed to cover and they really blew things down the stretch. So it's nice that Louisville scores 72.6 points per game in their last five games and it's nice that they shoot 47.0% from the floor in those games but in the end UConn's defense is just as solid as Louisville's and we are going to learn that tonight as the Huskies have allowed only 63.0 points per game in their last five games, they have allowed those last five opponents to shoot only 37.7% from the floor in those games and their defense is taylor made to really do well in this game. We all know how much the Cardinals love to shoot the three point ball and how good they can be at knocking down jumpers from beyond the arc but UConn is going to have none of that as they have allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 28.2% from three point range in those games and have allowed only 5.8 three pointers made against per game in those games. That means Louisville has to have an inside game tonight or they are cooked big time. Well that's a problem because the Cardinals have been to the free throw line only 19.6 times per game in their last five games (below the NCAA average for those games) and it doesn't matter anyways because Connecticut has allowed their last five opponents to go to the line only 12.6 times per game and they have one of the best interior defenses in college basketball right now. If that wasn't bad enough the Huskies are a very good rebounding team and for the first time in a long time, Louisville won't be the tougher of the two teams when it comes to battles in the paint and wars on the glass...not tonight boys which is why I'm fading you guys to the bank. Also, as well as the Cardinals have played offensively and as well as their guards move the ball around, this team has turned the ball over way too many times the last five games averaging a whopping and disgusting 16.6 turnovers per game in those games (the NCAA average is 13.6 turnovers per game) and although the Huskies don't play much pressure defense and although they don't attack you as much as the Cardinals attack defensively, they are very sound in their defensive sets and it is impossible to score inside on a team that is now averaging 9.2 blocks per game in their last five games (that's #1 in the NCAA during that time span). I have no clue how Louisville is going to keep up in this game because they don't have the guard play to keep up with the Huskies and they don't match up in terms of inside toughness so this is a nightmare matchup for this team and they are going down baby. FADE FADE FADE!

I have been the #1 Louisville supporter the last two or three weeks and it has paid off big time but this is the time to go against them guys because the matchup is bad, they are due to lose a conference game and Connecticut is actually a better all around team than the Cardinals. I hate to say it but it's true and there comes a time where you have to fade all good teams. Trust me when I say that Louisville is not going to make it out of Big East Conference play this season without losing one or two games and for those of you who didn't watch the Pittsburgh at Louisville game about a week and a half ago, you wouldn't know that the Panthers should have won that game and they led most of the way until they completely collapsed and the Cardinals got the win. This is Connecticut's first chance as the #1 team in the Nation and believe me this team is not going to blow this chance like all the other #1 teams have done this season in their opening week as the best team. UConn is a whopping 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog, they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games played on a Monday and I say it again, I love the way they match up in this game tonight. As much as we will continue to make money on Louisville this season and as much as they have cashed for me this season, I cannot follow a team that is due for a loss or a team that has covered the spread in only 7 of their last 30 home games versus a team with a winning road record and that is something people are overlooking here tonight. So it's that time guys, pack you stuff, place your wagers, don't drink tonight and let's cash this motherfucker right now!!!

Trend of the Game: Connecticut is 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog.


Connecticut 68, Louisville 61





:toast:





I have one more play tonight and it's in the Kansas-Baylor game later on tonight. I will post that writeup here in a bit, wish me luck and let's make some cash guys. TO THE BANK!!!
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[bookieskatrina]

like it.

 

[MistaFlava]

the date on the first game is a typo, my bad. If a mod reads this, can you please change it to Monday, February 2

thanks

 

[WebeBad]

Hmmmmmm...Very nice work

Your asrticle is wonderful BUT

I luv the Cardinals at home....got Louisville @ -2

Enjoy the game.

We be Bad

 

[JWinner17]

Luv the UConn pick tonight...

 

[Ketch]

you are on fucking fire! 50 on ariz, winner,

 

[Kruser6]

Flava join me in the UCONN thread, We are the only two going for them tonight! %^_

 

[MistaFlava]

alright so I love my play on UConn and had marked down another game I wanted to bet on if the odds were good. Well this game had ideal opening odds and I am ready for another winner and hopefully a sweep on the night...

Monday, February 2


View attachment 6348 Baylor Bears -1.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6349

The Kansas Jayhawks are finally back in the TOP 25 teams of this Country and they re-enter the ranking as the #24 ranked team but how long can that last and is this team good enough to compete at this level. We are about to find all that out tonight in what should be a crazy intense Big 12 battle between two teams possibly heading in different directions depending on the outcome of the game. Kansas comes in here with a 17-4 SU record on the season but what you have to know is that three of those losses have come away from home and despite being 10-5-1 ATS on the year overall, Kansas is a young team and it's only normal that they would be 3-3 ATS on the year away from home. So that's another huge reason I am going against them because Baylor wants this game more than they did the Texas game and that's very dangerous. Sure the Jayhawks have won six straight games and sure this young group is really coming together as of late which is good but their recent opponents have not been all that good and Baylor is the best team they are going to face since their last loss which was a 75-62 loss at Michigan State a few weeks ago prior to the start of Big 12 Conference play. So this is the toughest in-conference game the Jayhawks are going to have had all season and something tells me that this team is a big overrated having beat Colorado twice, Kansas State, Iowa State, Nebraska and Texas A&M during their win streak (which they were favored in all games by the way). Now that this team is finally being challenged in conference play, I fully expect them to go right back where they came from and that is the land of the unranked because prior to the season, Kansas was not supposed to be ranked while Baylor was supposed to be one of the best 25 teams in the Country. Alright so the table is set and the Jayhawks are in for their toughest rumble of the Big 12 Conference schedule so far. Kansas comes into this game averaging 72.4 points per game in their last five games and they are actually one of the best shooting teams in the Country during that span of time. Having said that, they have played against some of the worst defenses the Country has to offer and that helps contribute to that for sure. We all know Baylor can't play defense worth shit but that's by design because they would rather run the floor and play a fast paced game and allow a lot of points than sit back, play defense and try to slow things down so you have to understand that about this team. Having said that, you cannot unload from three point land against this Baylor team because they are too good around the perimeter and their guards don't allow open looks from the outside as their last five opponents have managed to make only 33.3% of their three point shots and that's just what you need against a Kansas Jayhawks team that has made a whopping 40.5% of their three point shots the last five games and that if they want, can really light it up from the outside. If you are going to ball with the Bears and beat them at home you have to be aggressive around the basket and have to be a team that can attack the hoop. Having said that, Kansas gets to the line only 20.4 times per game in their last five games which is good but not all that impressive and if this team wants to win, it will have to get a lot better. The Bears interior defense is not that good at all but again I don't think Kansas can take advantage of that because as much as they can shoot from the outside, they just don't attack the middle enough to make the Bears pay like Texas made them pay last week. What really bothers me too about Kansas is that they are weak around the basket when it comes to rebounding and that is going to cost them in this game as they have come down with only 9.8 offensive rebounds per game in their last five games and if you cannot get second chance opportunities in this game, you are going to fall behind against Baylor and you are going to struggle to keep up. The only reason Texas beat Baylor here last week was because their guards didn't turn the ball over and they outplayed Baylor's outstanding guards. Well that's not going to happen in this game as the Kansas guards are turnover machines recently and the only reason this has not been a problem is because they have played against much weaker teams. Well the fact that Kansas has turned the ball over 15.0 times per game in their last five games is going to be a problem here and I say that because Baylor can score in no time when it comes to taking the ball away and moving out on the fast break and if those fast break points turn into three point shot attempts, the Jayhawks are going to have one hell of a tough time winning this game or even coming close to scoring a ton of points on this defense. Baylor doesn't force all that many turnovers but they do know how to make opponents pay for misses from the field and I think the young Kansas guards are going to panic a bit early in this game and start playing ways they have not played in weeks, since before their conference schedule started. It just doesn't look good for Kansas here.

The Baylor Bears really disappointed me last week when they lost that home game against Texas and moved to 0-21 SU lifetime against the Longhorns but there is no such pressure of finally beating an opponent tonight and that is why I think Baylor is going to play a lot better than they did in that game last week. I know the fans wanted that game badly and so did the team and that was their big chance to make it back to the TOP 25 for the first time in a long time but that came has now come and gone, this team has moved on and they are still 15-6 SU on the season and are an impressive 11-2 SU at home this season. Do you really see this team losing four straight games at this point in the season? Okay I understand losing to Oklahoma, I understand losing to Texas and I can understand losing at Missouri on the weekend because not only are these ranked opponents we are talking about but they are some of the best in the Big 12 and at least Baylor has played against good conference opponents so far unlike Kansas who have yet to really play against a good conference opponent this season. Experience is everything and the Bears have the huge edge in experience tonight as they go up against a very young Kansas team that probably won't be able to weather the Baylor storm of three point shooting. Texas was a team that had seen it all before and that had no problems taking care of business defensively against this Baylor team but to contain them twice at home and twice in Nationally Televised games like this is going to be next to impossible and the Bears are no doubt going to seek redemption. Baylor knows they have a lot of haters/doubters out there after the Texas loss and because they are only 2-3 ATS at home this season. The Bears come into this game averaging 80.2 points per game in their last five games and the only reason they have now lost three straight games is because they are not shooting the ball as well as they were prior to conference play but that will change tonight. I say that despite the fact that Baylor has to play against a very good defensive team in Kansas but this is not the same kind of defense that this team has gone up against their last three games and the Jayhawks don't forget have had a vanilla schedule so far in the Big 12 so their bark is not all that big afterall if you ask me. What has been impressive, as it always is, is the fact that Baylor has made 9.8 three point shots per game their last five games and the fact that they have hit 39.2% of their shots from beyond the arc in those games (both well above the NCAA average for those games). We all know the Jayhawks don't allow shit from the outside and they do guard the perimeter quite well which is why teams have struggled to know down three point shots against them but if you have strong guards who can drive to the hoop and get around the outside traps, you are going to beat this team. The last five teams that played against Kansas this season went to the line 19.4 times per game and Baylor is one of those teams that loves to be aggressive, they love getting to the free throw line and they have been sent there 22.2 times per game in their last five games (don't forget three of those games were losses so that's pretty damn good). If Baylor can penetrate the lanes like that tonight and if they can get the ball inside, they are going to win this game huge because Kansas can't ball with these guys on the boards and despite having tremendous zone defense that doesn't allow second chance points, I don't think the Jayhawks have seen a team with this much speed that also averages 13.6 offensive rebounds per game in their last five games (the NCAA average is 9.7 offensive rebounds per game the last five games). I know I know, you are annoyed by how much the Baylor guards turn the ball over and how bad they have looked against high pressure defenses like Oklahoma and Texas...well things are going to be a bit different tonight because Kansas is not as aggressive defensively, they choose to be more technically sound and they choose to defend quick ball movement instead of going for the steal. They have forced only 12.2 turnovers per game in their last five games and have only 5.4 steals per game in those games and that's not enough to disrupt this Baylor defense the way the Horns did it last week. Forget the Baylor guards in this game guys, I think the star is going to be Kevin Rogers. The Bears were blown to pieces by Kansas here last year but most of the Kansas guys are gone while most of those Baylor guys are still here so watch out guys, this is dangerous for Kansas. Did you also forget that Baylor beat Kansas here in 2001 as a +9.5 underdog....HOME TEAM TAKES THIS BITCH!

How much does this game remind you guys of the Texas-Baylor game last Tuesday? As much as it reminds me of that game and as much as I am aware of what these two teams are capable of, what you all need to understand is that Vegas has set this up perfectly for you guys here. What I mean by that is that they know everyone was on Texas to beat the Bears here a week ago and the public easily cashed the Longhorns were too much for Baylor. So why in the world would this line be the same as it was last week when another ranked team comes into this building? That's because a) they want you on Kansas this time and it looks like most sheep have taken a bit of the Kool Aid and b) the line opened at -1 Kansas for some reason this time but has since been absolutely pounded the other way by some "Sharps" and believe me those guys know what they are doing here. Kansas is playing some good basketball right now and they have been on fire in Big 12 play so far but their schedule has been soft. Other than that they have been a good ATS team the last few seasons and I look forward to backing them a few times here and there. Baylor on the other hand is 5-0 ATS in their last five games played on a Monday night and they are going to finally get that huge home win they have been searching for so long and they will finally break the road team trend in this series that has seen the road team cover the spread seven straight times. Baylor is ready for this, this is step down in class from their Oklahoma and Texas games and the older players on this team are going to rule this bitch.

Trend of the Game: Baylor is 5-0 ATS in their last five Monday games.


Baylor 78, Kansas 68





:toast:





Alright guys that's about it. I am going to try and get back on track with tennis the next few days and will post in my usual spot. I am coming off a crazy NFL season and playoffs, going 9-2 ATS in the playoffs and winning my last seven wagers (Conference championship, Divisionals and Super Bowl in a sweep). Alright have a good night, expect NBA to start very shortly.
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[MistaFlava]

Huskies in the bank, now time to cash with Baylor.

PICKING UP STEAM THIS WEEK...its that time of the year with football out of the way.


Peace

 

[MistaFlava]

Baylor is a loss, I always lose on these guys, they are so overrated and just horrendous coaching.

 

[Trajedy]

Flav i was all over uconn and i put in baylor also and you just took the words out of my mouth, i have been waiting all year for these guys to turn the corner and they are so terrible.

I cant believe they are allowed to play this way, a complete joke

 

[bookieskatrina]

Nice work on conn. Those guys are f'n good. They look like the best team in the country tonight.

 

[papicker]

Baylor is a loss, I always lose on these guys, they are so overrated and just horrendous coaching.

ya this would be my take on this team exactly. they play a ku team thats 6-0 in the conference (against no one though) at home with their season on the line basically on espn and they stil lose by 10.