MistaFlava's CBB Friday ***CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2008-2009 CBB Record: 101-102-4 ATS (-72.20 Units)
MistaFlava's 2008-2009 Tournament Record: 11-9 ATS (+11.00 Units)

My apologies for the wrong units posted, had a + instead of a - and I have made the changes. I am as honest as it gets with my record keeping so I don't know why a few of you flipped out, it was a simple typo.

I am so happy to have March finally come strolling around. I needed this month to show up. Time to turn things around big time. Okay so we are in the home stretch of the college basketball season and I am no satisfied with my results. I have not been able to go on any kind of streak and have not been all that helpful to anyone who visits my threads. My solution to this is to go back to my old school capping ways that made me more than 40k on the season in the NFL. I have tried too hard to mess around with systems, PS3 plays and all sorts of bullshit that I have sorta lost my way a bit.

So my plan from here on in is to go back to my style of capping which is straight up gut and stats, big unit plays, televised games and all that good stuff. We are closing in on tournament time both conference and the NIT and NCAA tournaments and this is the best time of the year to place huge wagers on college hoops. I don't have much else to say. I have always done well betting on college hoops but again my season has not gone as well as I would have liked it to at this point on in the year. Wish me luck and can't wait to catch fire.

1 unit = $100


You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I have always been a streaky capper. Good Luck to all this week!

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Friday, March 13


View attachment 6633 North Carolina Tar Heels -11 (10 Units) View attachment 6634

The Virginia Tech Hokies had their fun yesterday and I went against them in their opening round game against the Hurricanes (yes it was a mistake but my head was pretty fucked up yesterday and I sucked ass). This team is not good enough to ball that way two days in a row and I think this game is going to be a disaster for these guys. The Hokies come into this game averaging 71.4 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done on 43.6% shooting from the floor. The Tar Heels have allowed 72.8 points per game on the year and that's perfectly fine because they have allowed their opponents to shoot only 41.2% from the floor and that is going to be a nightmare for the Hokies. Virginia Tech is shooting only 33.8% from three point range this season and although they might make a few deep bombs I don't think they can keep up with the Heels. A big part of the Hokies game is to get to the line as they have done so pretty well this season but North Carolina has been very good with their interior defense as their opponents this season have been to the free throw line only 16.6 times per game. I know the Hokies have had success rebounding and crashing the boards this season and second chance points are a big part of their game but North Carolina is one of the best rebouding teams in the Nation and unless you can shoot way above the NCAA average against these guys, you are not going to stay close with them. Despite their win yesterday against Miami (who's guard play was brutal) the Hokies have not had good guard play averaging only 12.5 assists per game this season while turning the ball over 13.1 times per game. That just won't work against this Tar Heels team that have forced 15.9 turnovers per game this season, they have 8.3 steals per game in those games and even if the Hokies think they can get something going inside, the Tar Heels average 5.4 blocks per game and it's just not going to work. This is a matter of VTech going on cold spells in this game and when you go cold against the Heels they are going to grab a 10+ point lead in a hurry and I actually expect them to do that a few times in this game. The Hokies had their run but that run ends here and believe me the upsets are going to stop at some point and it ain't happening here. Not the Heels.

The North Carolina Tar Heels had an entire day of watching TV yesterday to know all about some of the TOP 10 teams in this Country going down in the opening rounds of their conference tournaments and believe me when I say they are going to come into this game ready to ball knowing that they are a possible upset victim as well. This team is playing too well recently to be upset and I don't know even know why I backed some of those garbage teams yesterday. The Heels come into this game averaging 100.0 points per neutral court game this season and in those games they have managed to shoot a whopping 53.3% from the floor. I know the Hokies defense has been good all season and yes they are above average in the ACC but the issue here is that they are not that good to stop the Heels and their powerful offense away from home. North Carolina is making 7.5 three point shots per neutral court game this season and they have managed to shoot 41.7% from three point range in those games. The Hokies did a good job of containing Jack McClinton and company yesterday but the Tar Heels are a different animal and their ball movement is going to create some open looks from downtown. Say Virginia Tech takes away their outside game, the Heels move inside where they have been to the free throw line 27.7 times per game on neutral courts this season where they make 75.9% of their free throws. I talked about the Heels being the best rebounding team in the Nation and they have proved it on neutral courts where they have brought down 48.5 rebounds per game which is 18.7 rebounds above the NCAA average for games played on a neutral court. Get ready for some crazy ball movement guys as the Tar Heels average 20.0 assists per game on neutral courts this season and it's incredible that for that kind of pace they have turned the ball over only 13.0 times per game in those games. The Hokies are aggressive defensively on neutral courts but the Tar Heels are the one team that compensate for turnovers with tough defense and points off turnovers of their own. North Carolina is probably going to go up big sometime late in the first half here because Virginia Tech does not have the guys needed to run with these guys and believe me when I say that North Carolina can score in bunches and when they do these games tend to be ugly. The Hokies already played a game yesterday, they are going to be tired and the Heels are going to be all over these guys no matter who is out of their lineup. Have you seen how deep they run?

In their only meeting of the season, the Tar Heels had no problems going on the road and winning by 8 points which was not enough to cover the spread. A lot of you probably wonder why I would back them in this spot when they couldn't beat the Hokies by more than 8 points on the road last week but this is totally different. The Hokies were rested for that game as opposed to coming off a game less than 24 hours ago and the Hokies are on the road here, no home loving and that is a problem. Some will say that this is a great spot to back Virginia Tech because of how they have done on neutral courts in years past but despite their win and cover yesterday, this team is still only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall, they have not played well at all in ACC Conference play and the last four times they won a game, they have followed that up with an ATS loss meaning they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games that follow a straight up win. Anyone who has watched the Tar Heels play the last couple of years knows how they can be vicious when they play on neutral courts and the proof of that is in their 6-1 ATS record in their last seven games played on a neutral site as a favorite. In regular season meetings the Hokies have been the team to bet on the last few seasons but this is the Conference tournament and the Tar Heels are coming here on a mission, no doubt about it.

Trend of the Game: Virginia Tech is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.


North Carolina 93, Virginia Tech 71




More selections to come...
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[NeedALiving]

I read yours every day, love them. Thanks!

 

[MistaFlava]

Friday, March 13


View attachment 6636 Louisiana State Tigers -1.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6635

The Kentucky Wildcats have been a good bet for me all season...at home...and I love Jodie Meeks' basketball game but he does not have the supporting cast to win big games and to win tournaments like this and tournament games, you have to a few other upper class players to help you out. The Wildcats are too young and I don't trust them away from home against better teams. The Wildcats come into this game averaging 75.3 points per game this season and they have been one of the better shooting teams from the floor in the SEC this season but that doesn't mean jack shit against this tough LSU defense that has not played all that well lately but that has allowed only 65.7 points per game this season and allowed opponents to shoot only 40.6% from the floor and if you remember some of their matchups this season, when push came to shove, the Wildcats missed some big shots and it cost them. The problem with Kentucky is that they don't shoot all that well or all that much from three point range as they have made only 5.7 three pointers per game this season and LSU defends the perimeter very well allowing opponents to shoot only 31.5% from three point range this season meaning Kentucky has to do all their work inside. The only problem there is that the Tigers are also good defensively on the inside as they have allowed opponents only 19.5 trips to the line per game this season and if the Cats can't get inside, they can't score points. LSU is another great rebounding team and so is Kentucky but the Wildcats get a bit lazy sometimes on the offensive glass and they average only 9.3 offensive rebounds per game this season. It's so tough to bring rebounds down against LSU as they have allowed only 29.9 rebounds per game this season and their opponents average only 9.3 offensive rebounds per game which should let them pull away in this game. Kentucky despite having Meeks and his crazy basketball skills have turned the ball over a crazy 17.3 times per game this season and that should be disasterous against an LSU team that has forced 7.7 steals per game this season and that have terrorized opposing teams who are lazy with the ball. They allow only 9.2 assists against per game this season and I don't know how Kentucky is going to get around that with their careless ball moving ways. I like the Wildcats but their recent play is not encouraging and LSU knows they can beat these guys.

The LSU Tigers pissed me off more than once this season but that's only because I went against them and got burned. One of those times was their recent visit to Kentucky where they blew a 15+ point lead, went down by a few points but stormed back, shut down Jodie Meeks and won one of their most impressive games of the season. LSU comes into this game withouth the same offensive explosion prowness as Kentucky as they average 75.7 points per game this season and shoot 45.3% from the floor but they have a better core of players and when this comes down to guys off the bench, I think LSU is going to dominate this game. Kentucky's defense has been pretty good this season as they have allowed only 66.2 points per game this season and opponents have shot only 38.7% against them from the floor. Fine...but they are not that good away from home, believe me. LSU despite not being a big three point shooting team have knocked down 37.1% of their three point shots this season and all that does is compliment their inside game. The Wildcats have at times struggled to cover the perimeter transitions as they have allowed 6.8 three pointers made per game this season and that could be a problem. Inside, the Tigers average 22.1 trips to the free throw line per game this season and make 71.9% of their free throws in those games. Kentucky is beatable inside as long as you move the ball around and avoid the turnovers. LSU is a fantastic rebounding team and that is where the game will be won. They come into this game averaging 36.6 rebounds per game this season on 11.8 offensive boards per game in those games and Kentucky is screwed because they have allowed opponents to grab 34.5 rebounds per game this season and if they pull that shit in this game it's going to be a long afternoon. The Tigers have great ball moving guards who have led the team to 15.4 assists per game this season while turning the ball over only 12.2 times per game which is what you need against a Wildcats team that forces a bunch of turnovers and is very aggressive defensively.The only way to really beat Kentucky is to have inside toughness and good ball movement and the Tigers have both which is why there is no reason they can't win this game by 10+ points or close to it.

I bet on their first meeting of the season and it was a crazy game let me tell you that. Kentucky was down by a lot almost the entire first half before storming back and tying the game or coming very close to it before LSU completely took over and ended up winning by three on the road in a very tough place to play. This team has already shown that they have mental and physical toughness which is what you need to make a run in these tournaments. LSU is now favored in the re-match which is being played on a neutral court and this should be a wild game. The Wildcats come into this game having not played well in recent years as an underdog away from conference arenas as they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog on a neutral court and they are also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games when playing against a team with a straight up winning record on the season. I'm sorry but this team has not played well at all and their only ATS cover the last five games was their win against Ole Miss yesterday and even that is not all that impressive. It's imperative that you know about their 1-7 ATS record in their last eight games versus teams with a winning percentage above .600%. LSU on the other hand is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games when favored by 0.5 to 6.5 points and this is really the range you want to back them in. I think the Tigers are going to be too strong for Kentucky and the only way the Wildcats win this game is if Meeks goes off for 40+ points and I just don't see that happening in this game. The line is great and I'm on LSU here.

Trend of the Game: Kentucky is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games versus teams with a winning straight up record.


LSU 69, Kentucky 61




More selections to come...
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[MistaFlava]

Friday, March 13


View attachment 6637 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +5.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6638

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are the most dangerous team in this tournament when it comes to early round upsets and like I have said all season, this is a very young team but a very talented team that is going to be a TOP 10 teams in the next few years you just watch. These guys play with incredible toughness and incredible heart and I am going to back them today like I did yesterday against Clemson. They come into this game scoring 86.0 points per neutral court game this season and in that game (the Clemson game) the Jackets managed to shoot a whopping 55.7% from the floor which should work against one of the best defenses in the Conference. The Seminoles have allowed only 64.3 points per game on neutral courts this season and allowed opponents to shoot only 37.4% from the floor in those games but again that does not concern me. The Jackets are all about inside toughness but they still made 37.5% of their three point shots against Clemson and that could be a problem for a Florida State team that has allowed 7.0 three pointers made per neutral court game this season. If not, the Jackets love moving the ball inside where they went to the free throw line only 16.0 times yesterday but made 75.0% of those free throws and they should have more success getting to that line against a Florida State team that has sent their neutral court opponents to the line 21.3 times per game. Georgia Tech is as tough as it gets on the boards as they brought down 36.0 rebounds yesterday (12.0 of those of the offensive kind) and that is something the Noles have struggled with all season is allowing their opponents to grab second chance point opportunities as they have allowed 12.0 offensive rebounds per neutral court game and the Jackets are going to crash the boards and make some noise here. I was so impressed by the Jackets guard play yesterday as the team dished out 18.0 assists in that game while turning the ball over quite a few times. Florida State is a bit like Clemson only their perimeter and interior defenses are better and they force a lot of turnovers (so did Clemson). As long as the Jackets continue to run the floor and make their shots however, they are going to give these aggressive defenses nightmares because despite their turnovers, they can still score enough points to win the game. Florida State is huge inside but that's not a problem because Clemson had 0 blocks yesterday and the Jackets are drilling their mid-range jumpers left and right which should give them a huge edge in this game today. I love how this team played yesterday and like I said before, watch out for these guys now and in the NCAA Tournament should they get there.

The Florida State Seminoles are a good team and I have not had the chance to bet on them at any point this season but this is a good chance for me to go against them because I don't think they know what they have coming against this very pesky and young Georgia Tech team that reminds me so much of some of the great teams that have made tournament runs in the past years. What I do know about this Florida State team is that they are not the same away from home as they are on their home court and these guys are averaging only 67.3 points per game on the road this season and shooting 44.1% from the floor in those games. Georgia Tech allows a lot of points on the road but that's only because they run the floor like crazy and love trading baskets. However, they have allowed their road opponents to shoot only 42.7% from the floor and if you go cold against these guys they are going to make you pay for it. Florida State is a good three point shooting team as they have knocked down quite a few shots from long range this season but Georgia Tech has allowed their road opponents to shoot only 29.3% from beyond the arc this season holding them to only 5.8 three point shots made per road game this season. That should force the Noles to go inside where they have been to the free throw line only 19.2 times per away game this season and the only way to beat Georgia Tech is to pound away on them inside where their interior defense is weak because of their press defense. On the boards, the Noles are not the same away from home where they bring down only 30.2 rebounds per game and only 9.5 offensive rebounds per game (both below the NCAA average). That is huge because a big part of this team's success has been their ability to win the battles in the trenches. As much as Georgia Tech is vulnerable to ball movement and easy buckets inside, they also force a ton of turnovers as they have managed to force 16.6 turnovers per away game this season on a whopping 8.4 steals per game and the Seminoles are screwed here seeing how they have turned the ball over 15.8 times per away game this season. Georgia Tech is going to be all over these guys in this game. They are the peskiest defense in the Conference, they are fast and they love to run, rebound and attack, just the formula Florida State does not want to see here.

Alright so these two teams met once this season and as expected to happen again here today, the Noles struggled big time to put away Georgia Tech and that was on their own home court. Sure the game was a long time ago but all the Jackets did was grow up since that game and like I said before I really they come in here and get the job done for the second day in a row. They need this win for their resume and I think they get it. Georgia Tech is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 0.5 to 6.5 points and this has been the perfect range for these guys all season. I don't really have anything bad to say about Florida State because of how impressive they have been this season and how well they have played for the most part of the year but I noticed that the Noles did most of their damage away from home as underdogs and this is a completely different animal now that they are favored by this much. Georgia Tech has too much speed and too much toughness for the Noles and they have shown many times this season that they can ball with the big boys of this conference and that they will not back down no matter who the opponent. The underdog in this series is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings and Georgia Tech has covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings. Go with the underdog here and you will win.

Trend of the Game: The Underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.


Georgia Tech 78, Florida State 74




More selections to come...
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[Lizard_King]

Nice work so far Flava, appreciate the write-ups. With you on NC & LSU

 

[DA_MOSS]

Just a question? Did you take into account Ty Lawson being out for UNC?

Appreciate all you do

 

[PuppyChow]

Couple things:

-You say GT scores 86 ppg in neutral court games. They've played one and it was yesterday. A little misleading.

-You say FSU has trouble with offensive rebounds in neutral court games. They've played two. And what does a neutral court game have to do with offensive rebounding? For what it's worth, they've averaged giving up 9 offensive boards in the last 8 games.

-You do the same thing with 3 point shots and neutral court games being a "problem." yuo're correlating two things that have nothing to do with each other from a sample size of 2.

-You say FSU is "huge inside but that isn't a problem because Clemson had 0 blocks yesterday." You do realize FSU and Clemson are two different teams right? Again, you keep dismissing FSU for one thing that has nothing to do with the other.

-"The Florida State Seminoles are a good team and I have not had the chance to bet on them at any point this season but this is a good chance for me to go against them because I don't think they know what they have coming" This makes no sense and makes an assumption that FSU doesn't have a film room.

-You say FSU is worse on the road than at home. FSU is 7-4 ATS at home, but they are 10-3 ATS on the road. FSU scores more, has a better shooting %, and allows less rebounds in road games this year.

-You say GT has too much "speedand toughness" for the Noles. If you ask anyone that watches the ACC (jimmy, for starters), you'd know that FSU is much quicker. FSU has arguably the fastest player in the league in Toney Douglas. Their speed is why they have one of the best defenses in the ACC.

There's nothing wrong with providing your picks. The more the merrier on this board. It's just wrong to mislead people by providing misleading and false information in your write-ups.

 

[MistaFlava]

Friday, March 13


View attachment 6640 Houston Cougars +14 (10 Units) View attachment 6639

The Houston Cougars are a team that strikes me as dangerous despite their so-so record this season and their weak schedule but they do have some guys who can really score and believe me when I say I think they give Memphis the run of their lives tonight (or at least of their season). They have everything it takes to beat the Tigers and I think they get it done. Houston comes into this game averaging 78.2 points per game this season when playing on a neutral court and they have managed to get that done by shooting 43.4% from the floor which means they love to run the floor. I clearly understand how good Memphis is defensively but that doesn't mean teams can't keep things close with them and I think Houston is going to be a nightmare for these guys. The Cougars are pretty good from three point range making 34.7% of their shots on neutral courts and despite the Tigers ability to defend the perimeter, Houston is too quick and will penetrate enough to create open looks from the outside in this game. The Cougars are not a good free throw shooting team but they are super tough inside and very aggressive as they have been to the free throw line 24.2 times per game on neutral courts this season while Memphis has really struggled to contain good inside teams on neutral courts this season sending their opponents to the free throw line 25.0 times per game which is huge. That gives the Cougars a chance to put Memphis in early foul trouble. I don't know that many other teams can be as tough with Memphis as these guys can having brought down 35.2 rebounds per game on neutral courts this season on 13.5 offensive rebounds per game which is a problem for a Memphis team that has allowed 34.0 rebounds per neutral court game on 10.2 offensive rebounds per game in those games. The Cougars some very experienced guards who average 12.8 assists per game on neutral courts and turn the ball over only 10.5 times per game in those games which is ideal against a very tough Memphis defense that loves to attack and force turnovers. I think the Cougars are perfect for this matchup as they have decent inside players and have great guards who can score and move the ball and avoid turnovers. I cannot believe the line is so high.

The Memphis Tigers have been my go-to team this season when it comes to betting on a team when I need a winner. I have bet on them about 6-7 times and come out on top all but once I believe so it's tough to go against them. However, having watched both of these teams play, I think Houston is going to give these guys all sorts of problems and I have actually not been all that impressed with the way the Tigers have played in recent weeks (which is why I bet on them only once). Memphis comes into this game averaging only 64.6 points per game in their last five games and like I said before I have not been impressed with their recent level of play as they have shot only 45.2% from the floor in those games and that is well below their season average. Houston, despite their frantic pace of play, have allowed 71.6 points per game in their last five games but have held those opponents to only 43.2% shooting from the floor in those games. Memphis, unlike past seasons, does not shoot much from long range and are making only 27.1% of their three point shot attempts the last five games which is a plus for Houston who's perimeter defense has been an issue this season. That means Memphis is going to take this game inside but in their last five games they have sucked and have been to the free throw line only 15.8 times per game and I don't see how they are going to take advantage of a vulnerable Houston defense that loves to play tough and loves to go for turnovers in the paint. I think Memphis is going to win the battle of the boards like they always do but Houston gets honorable mention here as a very tough team that can compete with anyone on the boards which should keep Memphis in check for the most part of this game. I have to tell you that Memphis guards are probably going to be outplayed in this game as they have averaged only 11.2 assists per game in their last five games and have turned the ball over a whopping 14.2 times per game. Uh oh. Houston has forced 13.6 turnovers per game in their last five games, the Cougars have allowed only 11.8 assists against per game in those games and they average 7.2 steals per game in those games so expect them to do some serious damage tonight on the defensive side of things as they have the ability to force turnovers and move quickly to score. The Cougars are also very tough in the paint averaging 4.6 blocks per game their last five games and again I think this is a horrible matchup for Memphis. Expect them to lose.

These two teams met twice this past season and yes Memphis won both times and yes they covered the spread both times but I think Houston learned a lot from their recent home loss to the Tigers because they had a chance to keep it close but things got away late and they pretty much fell apart in the final minutes of the game making it look like a much bigger blowout than it actually was. I think the line is a bit blown up for this game and it doesn't reflect their two meetings this season or the way Houston played in those games despite losing. I have to also mention that Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 13 or more points and as long as they can force turnovers and create enough defensive pressure to give themselves a chance on offense, they are for sure going to cover this number or even win the game straight up. Memphis comes into this game with a pretty good ATS record on the season but this is the same Memphis team that has not played well in tournaments and that have struggled on neutral courts the last few seasons going 1-4 ATS in their last five games played on a neutral court as a favorite. That makes them 1-4 ATS in their last five games on a neutral site and much like some of the other top teams in the Country, I expect them to struggle in the first round of this tournament letting Houston come close to winning this game. I won't go as far as confirming a Houston win but I think they will be there at the end of this game and cover the spread with ease.

Trend of the Game: Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 13.0 points or greater.




More selections to come...
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[PuppyChow]

No response?

 

[MistaFlava]

Friday, March 13


View attachment 6641 Michigan Wolverines +2 (10 Units) View attachment 6642

The Michigan Wolverines demolished my Iowa bet yesterday and I think that's one too many times I have faded them in games like this and paid the price for it. What I have come to realize about Michigan is that no matter who they have beat this season, the team still plays with the notion that they need to win this tournament and every game they play to make it in to the Big Dance this weekend and that should catapult them past teams like Illinois who have already locked up a spot win or lose a game in this tournament. The Wolverines come into this game averaging 68.2 points per game on neutral courts this season and in those games they have managed to shoot 46.8% from the floor which is unusual from Big Ten Conference teams. I know Illinois' defense is amongst the best in the conference and in the nation as they have allowed only 52.0 points per game on neutral courts this season but the Wolverines have a chance to score some points here. We already know Michigan loves to throw it down from out of town with their 8.5 three point shots made per game on a neutral court and their 36.6% shooting from three point range in those games. The Illini have terrific perimeter defense but the Wolverines can just as easily move their game inside and do some damage from there. I know they don't get to the free throw line much on any court this season but when they do go to the line they are making 84.1% of their free throws on neutral courts and that could count for a lot late in this game. Despite their struggles on the boards away from home, Michigan could catch the Illini sleeping in this game as Illinois has allowed a rather big 28.0 rebounds per game on neutral courts this season and those opponents have averaged 9.8 offensive boards per game, above the NCAA average for neutral courts. How can you not be impressed with the guard play of this team this season. They are averaging 18.8 assists per game in their last five games and they have managed to turn the ball over only 9.0 times per game in those games and if they can control the ball and get some good rotations going, they will do some damage against this defense and put themselves in a position to win the game. Illinois is not that much bigger in the paint so the Wolverines can be aggressive and have some success in this game.

The Illiniois Fighting Illini were a good fade the last time I bet on one of their games as I took Michigan State large on the road in Champagne for the easy money and big play of the month. Not to say this game has anything to do with that but again I want to mention that I think Illinois is already in the NCAA tournament whether they win or lose in this tournament so the interest level might not be as high. Illinois comes into this game averaging only 56.8 points per game in their last five games and I really don't know if that is going to be enough to get the job done against a red hot Michigan team that finally learned to win on the road. In their last five games Michigan has managed to allow only 63.4 points per game and despite their opponents shooting quite well in those games, Michigan has made sure to answer a score for a score and that is why they are winning games. Illinois is an above average three point shooting team but the Wolverines will have none of that in this game as they have allowed their last five opponents to shoot only 30.2% from three point range and average only 5.2 three pointers made per game in those games. If you thought Michigan had problems getting to the line in games how about Illinois getting to the free throw line only 8.4 times per game in their last five games and shooting only 66.7% from the free throw line in those games? That's brutal and at least Michigan makes their free throws. The Illini have not looked the same on the boards the last five games bringing down a measly 26.4 rebounds per game in those games on only 6.2 offensive rebounds per game and that is not good enough. Michigan has allowed only 28.6 rebounds against per game in their last five games on only 7.8 offensive rebounds per game and it looks like the Wolverines are going to win the battle of the boards here. Despite having great ball movement by their guards in recent games, I feel the Illini have been sloppy in their offensive sets and they have turned the ball 13.6 times per game in those games and that's a huge problem because Michigan will come at you hard and they have forced 14.0 turnovers per game in their last five games on 7.2 steals per game and that type of aggressive Big Ten defense is going to win this game for the Wolverines. Illinois is overrated and I just don't see them stopping a red hot Michigan team right now.

The home team has won these meetings for as long as anyone can remember but with no home team tonight, what do we do? Michigan beat the Illini at home by 10 points this season and then Illinois beat the Wolverines at home by 15 points so as you can see home court advantage is huge and that is cancelled out tonight. You cannot go against Michigan right now, they are too good and they are playing too well. The Wolverines are 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus an opponent that has a straight up winning record on the season and they are also 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus Big Ten Conference opponents. I also like the fact that when the Wolverines are rolling they are rolling and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games that follow a straight up win the game before. I have had success betting on Illinois on neutral courts in the past but something bothers me about this year's team and I don't trust them in games like this. The Illini have a habit of beating up on lesser teams and they are actually 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams that have a straight up winning record on the season. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games when favored by 0.5 to 6.5 points and this is definitely not the range to back these guys. So again I go back to the fact that Illiniois doesn't really need this game and I think Manny Harris and Mr. Sims are going to go on some big ass tear in this tournament to solidify their spot in the big dance. Watch it happen boys and girls.

Trend of the Game: Illinois is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams with a straight up winning record.


Michigan 63, Illinois 58




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[MistaFlava]

Friday, March 13


View attachment 6643 Maryland Terrapins +6.5 (10 Units) View attachment 6644

The Maryland Terrapins, as we have all seen on many occasions this season, have pulled off quite a few upsets along the course of their season but at other times they have looked horrendous and I just hope this is not one of those times. Having watched their last three games, this team is doing everything right and I think they have what it takes to pull off some shocking upsets in this tournament if they can get past this round. The Terps come into this game averaging 71.7 points per game this season and they have managed to do that despite shooting only 42.2% from the floor on the year. I cannot argue with the way Wake Forest has played defense this season because their opponents have struggled to score all season and they have allowed only 70.1 points per game in the tough ACC Conference. Having said that, I love betting on teams like Maryland that don't depend on the three point shot to win games as they are attempting only 17.5 three point shots per game this season and Wake Forest is used to opponents taking three point shot attempts having allowed 6.7 three pointers made per game. Maryland is all about mid-range jumpers as their bread and butter is the penetrate the lane and dish off for 10 foot jumpers or layups. They don't get to the free throw line all that often but when they do, they are making 76.5% of those free throws and that could be huge coming down the stretch in this game. Wake Forest has struggled at times with their interior defense as their opponents this season have been to the free throw line 20.2 times per game this season and that could keep this game close if they get some of their top guys into foul trouble. I know the Terps are not a huge rebounding team and they will have to work hard like they always do to score points (they average 11.0 offensive rebounds per game this season). Having said that, Wake Forest has been caught sleeping on the defensive boards many times this season and Maryland could have success with put backs. Having said that, I think the Terps are going to win this game on pure guard play and good ball movement as they average 14.9 assists per game this season and have turned the ball over only 12.2 times per game which is outstanding in the ACC Conference. Wake Forest is another team that loves to attack and press and they force a lot of turnovers but again Maryland has been outstanding with their ball handling all season and in the last five games and I actually expect that to be the difference in this game here. The Terps have beat some of the best teams in the Conference and I don't see them having problems keeping up here.

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have had an up and down season that has seen them dominate at times and suck at others and much like most teams in the ACC Conference this season, they are susceptible to upsets and we are going to learn that this weekend or even tonight for that matter. Wake Forest comes into this game averaging 78.5 points per game away from home this season and as they have always done they have shot a very impressive 48.2% from the floor in those games so it's pretty important that Maryland keep this game close and slow the pace down with some effective guard play. I know the Terps have had all sorts of issues stopping opponents on the road this season but what do you expect in the ACC Conference and it has not stopped them from pulling off upsets. The biggest problem this Terps has had is outter perimeter defense as their road opponents this season have unloaded on them from three point range which is why I think this is a great matchup for Maryland seeing how Wake Forest has managed to make only 31.7% of their three point shots on the road this season and they have averaged only 4.0 three pointers made per game in those games. The Deacons are more a team that loves attacking the paint and getting to the free throw line but Maryland is very good at closing down inside lanes and have allowed their road opponents to go to the free throw line only 17.9 times per game this season which is better than the NCAA average. I also want to point out that Wake Forest is a very good rebounding team and that is no secret and the only reason they are going to stay in this game is because they will have a bunch of second chance opportunities in this game. The Terps don't know how to defend against teams that have active guards who move the ball around very well but Wake Forest's guards have not been good away from home leading the team to only 12.7 assists per game this season and they have turned the ball over a whopping 15.4 times per away game this season and that is not going to fly against a pesky Maryland defense that has forced 15.2 turnovers per away game this season on a whopping 8.1 steals per game. If you can't match Maryland's guard play, you are going to struggle to beat these guys believe me.

We all remember that classic game between these two teams about a week and a half ago as Wake Forest went into Maryland and won by two very late in the game as -1.5 favorites in that game. Now do you really think they deserve to be favored by this many points on a neutral court when they struggled to beat the same Terps team away from home just a few weeks ago? Cmon let's get serious here. The Terps have not been a team that I have backed in tournaments because again they are inconsistent and you really never know what to expect from these guys away from home. Having said that, I have successfully faded Wake Forest quite a few times this season and I am glad to do it again. The Deacons have always been a failure as large favorites in tournaments like this and believe it or not I still think they are an overrated team. They have covered the spread only 6 times in their last 24 games played on a neutral court where they are the favorite in that game and they are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games played on a neutral court. It's also worth mentioning that they have sucked on Fridays and that means they have been bad in tournaments of years past. Maryland has some huge wins this season and they are that kind of team that has cinderella's slipper on the entire season and I think Cinderella wants to dance so let them dance in this game and cover this spread.

Trend of the Game: Wake Forest is 6-21 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games.


Maryland 86, Wake Forest 83




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[MistaFlava]

Friday, March 13


View attachment 6646 Arizona State Sun Devils -1 (10 Units) View attachment 6645

The Arizona State Sun Devils are the second best team in this Conference but a lot of people will argue that and say that Washington is the better of the two teams. Well I guess we know this game is going to be split tonight and I am happy putting my money on the Huskies in such a big game. I love the way they have played all season, they have overcome all sorts of adversity and this is going to be a statement game heading into the NCAA Tournament next week. The Sun Devils come into this game averaging a whopping 78.8 points per game this season when playing on a neutral court and in those games they have managed to shoot 50.8% from the floor which is incredible and which is more than Washington can handle I'm sure. The Huskies have allowed a whopping 79.5 points per neutral court game this season and their opponents in those games have managed to shoot 43.4% from the floor in those games and again I think that is going to be a problem. The Sun Devils are deadly from three point range with Glasser and Harden running the floor and making 38.1% of their three point shots this season on neutral courts with an average of 8.6 three point shots made per game in those games. WOW! Washington's perimeter defense is terrible and they have allowed their neutral court opponents to unload 38.0% from three point range this season on a crazy 9.5 three pointers made per game in those games (well it was one game but still). Not only do the Sun Devils shoot the lights out from downtown but they get to the free throw line 23.0 times per game on neutral courts and make 77.4% of their free throws in those games. I know Washington's interior defense is good so the Sun Devils should really work the outside perimeter in this game. They are not as big as the Huskies and won't win the battle of the boards but they shoot well enough from the outside and have good enough guard play that it will not matter as they run the floor and put points up at their own pace all game long. The outstanding Sun Devil guards have led this team to 15.8 assists per game on neutral courts this season and have turned the ball over only 12.8 times per game in those games. Washington cannot handle teams that move the ball well around the perimeter and I think they are going to get killed from the outside in this game having allowed 17.0 assists against per game on neutral courts this season. I just don't see how Washington can stop this Arizona State offense if they can't defend the perimeter at all. The Sun Devils are going to win this game huge if you ask me.

The Washington Huskies have been a good wager for the most part of this season and they kept that going yesterday with their big win over Stanford. I still don't know why anyone thought that pathetic Stanford team was going to keep it close but that's not my deal and I am now fading the Huskies to the bank in this game. I don't care what you say this team is not as good as Arizona State and with both teams wanting a win tonight I don't see how they find a way to get that win. The Huskies come into this game averaging 75.3 points per away game this season and in those games they have managed to shoot 45.1% from the floor. However, what you need to know is that Arizona State's defense is a lot better than Washington's and the Sun Devils have allowed road opponents to score only 57.8 points per game this season and have allowed those opponents to shoot only 39.6% from the floor on the season. Washington is not a good three point shooting team away from home making only 33.5% of their shots from beyond the arc on only 4.7 three point shots made per game and I don't know how they can keep up against an Arizona State defense that is allowing away opponents to shoot only 28.1% from beyond the arc this season on only 5.2 three point shots made per game in those games. Getting to the line against Arizona State is not easy as they have allowed their road opponents to get to the line only 16.3 times per game this season and if the Huskies can't get to the line, they won't keep this close. Despite not grabbing all that many rebounds themselves on the road this season, Arizona State has been very good when it comes to protecting their own basket and they have allowed only 28.0 rebounds per game in their away game this season and have allowed those opponents to bring down only 9.0 offensive rebounds per game. Washington is huge on second chance opportunities and they won't have that luxury in this game because event the Sun Devil guards are good rebounders. What bothers me the most about Washington is their guard play as they average only 11.5 assists per game on the road this season and have turned it over 14.8 times per game in those games. OUCH! Its almost impossible to get decent ball movement against the Sun Devils defense because they force you outside and take away inside lanes despite not forcing all that many turnovers. Washington is pretty much screwed in this game and they are going to have problems from the very beginning of this game if you ask me. They just don't have the offensive weapons to get involved in a shootout with the Sun Devils and that will be their demise here.

We saw two interesting matchups between these teams this season and believe it or not Washington won both times handing the Sun Devils their worst home loss of the season and believe me when I say that Arizona State is not going to lose to these clowns three times in one season. The re-match came almost a month after their January encounter in Arizona and that game went to overtime where the Huskies won by three but did not cover the spread. Arizona State should have won that game anyways. Arizona State comes into this game 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus opponents with a winning percentage above .600% and they are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games that follow a straight up win the game before. I also have to mention that the Sun Devils have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court and they are actually 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall making them 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus PAC 10 Conference opponents. The underdog has covered too many spreads lately in this series and now that things have been evened out by the neutral site, we are going to see a totally different Arizona State team that does not have the pressures of playing at home and that does not have to worry about blowing games on the road in a hostile environment. This is Harden's time to shine and the way the Huskies have played lately they are going to get trashed by the Sun Devils. Watch this.

Trend of the Game: Arizona State is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus PAC 10 Conference opponents.


Arizona State 79, Washington 69




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[MistaFlava]

Friday, March 13


View attachment 6648 Duke Blue Devils -10 (10 Units) View attachment 6649

***PLAY OF THE DAY***

The Boston College Eagles are going to be a popular bet tonight and I can already bank on that because people love upsets in the ACC Conference and they love to fade Duke for some reason but I just don't see the justification of taking the Eagles in this game no matter what you tell me they have done in recent games. Boston College comes into this game averaging 74.3 points per game on neutral courts this season and in those games they have managed to shoot 44.0% from the floor which is not bad. Having said that, Duke has allowed their neutral court opponents to score 59.3 points per game this season and in those games this outstanding defense has allowed only 39.3% shooting from the floor which is well below the NCAA average. If you are going to stay close with Duke you have to make your three point shots but let me tell you know, BC is never a threat from downtown and they have shown that by shooting only 29.8% from three point range on neutral courts making only 4.7 three pointers per game in those games. Duke's only defensive weakness has been the perimeter guarding and BC cannot take advantage of that sadly. So the Eagles are going to try and pound the ball inside where they shoot very well from the free throw line and where they have gone to the line many times on neutral courts this season but the problem there is that Duke has allowed their neutral court opponents to get to the line only 17.0 times per game this season and that is tough to beat. Despite being a better rebounding team than Duke overall, the Eagles are going to struggle in this game as Duke is very technically sound on the boards and their neutral court opponents have managed to bring down only 25.0 rebounds per game this season on only 6.7 offensive rebounds per game in those games. I can't say the Eagles won't have success moving the ball in this game because their guards have played well on neutral courts but Duke loves forcing turnovers as they have forced 14.0 turnovers per neutral court game this season with 7.0 steals per game and 5.3 blocks on the inside which means that the only way to beat this defense is to shoot the lights out from the outside and Boston College has already shown that they cannot do that so I really don't know how they are going to score tonight or how they are going to keep this game close at all. Bank on them getting killed.

The Duke Blue Devils have screwed me one too many times this season but now that everyone is jumping off the Blue Devil wagon and onto the Boston College spread eagle, I am going the other way. I cannot believe only 30% or so are on Duke tonight knowing how good they can be when nobody thinks they are going to get the job done. Yes they have screwed the public a bunch of times this season so why should it stop here? Duke comes into this game averaging a whopping 81.2 points per game in their last five games and they have done that by shooting 44.9% from the floor which is their highest offensive output number string of the season so why bet against them I ask? Boston College has been good defensively in their last five games but they have still allowed 67.8 points per game in those games and their opponents have shot 43.5% from the floor which is right around the NCAA average for those games. We all know Duke loves unloading shot attempts from three point range and that's a good thing because they have made 35.4% of their three point shots the last five games and that is an average of 8.0 three pointers made per game. Boston College sucks ass at defending the perimeter and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 8.0 three point shots per game and make 43.5% of their three pointers in those games so how the hell do they stop Duke tonight? Wow! If you think all Duke has is an outside game guess again as the Blue Devils are very good in the paint and they have been to the free throw line 28.4 times per game in their last five games and made 73.2% of those freebies. OUCH! Boston College won't know what to do in this game and they are going to get killed on all sides. Duke is not the best rebounding team around but Boston College has allowed 11.6 offensive rebounds per game in their last five games and when you allow the Dukies more than once chance, they make you pay for it. I don't think the Duke guards are playing all that well but what this team does not do is turn the ball over as they have only 8.4 turnovers per game in their last five games and should have no problems getting around this overrated Boston College team that will foul all night trying to stop the Duke rythm. What a game this is going to be and Duke will look like they deserve a #1 seed once this is all said and done. Believe me on that once again please.

Alright so this is the second meeting of the season between these teams and we all saw Boston College beat Duke at home back on February 15. Well these clowns are far from home in this game and they don't have those crazy Chestnut Hill people to back them against a hated Duke team. So now that the tables have turned, you can bet your bottom dollar Duke is not going to let go of the pressure once they go up, no matter who they end up having to face tomorrow. In the days of Dudley the Eagles were one of the best neutral court wagers around and they kicked some serious ass but I don't trust this young team at all and it's worth mentioning that they are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games played on a Friday and they are also 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games played as an underdog of 7 to 12.5 points. They have covered the spread in only 2 of their last 7 games versus opponents with a straight up winning record and they are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog so don't count on these guys to win you some cash. Duke on the other hand is playing some of their best basketball of the season despite losing to UNC again and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a straight up winning record. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus ACC Conference opponents and I think the days of the underdog covering the spread in this series are coming to an end tonight. Boston College is not that good at all so toss them out the window and go with Duke as the PLAY OF THE DAY!

Trend of the Game: Boston College is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 7 to 12.5 points.


Duke 88, Boston College 64




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[ZJP6050]

good luck dude, i'll be with you on maryland and probably a few others