MistaFlava's 2008 CFB Record: 9-13-1 ATS (-43.80 Units) 41%
This is definitely not the kind of start to the season I was expecting but I can only go up from here and things will be better. The overall goal is to finish around 65-70% on the year. I don't know how possible that is but I will do my best to reach that goal.
Week 1: 4-6 ATS (+3.20 Units)
Week 2: 3-3 ATS (-12.50 Units)
Week 3: 2-3-1 ATS (-29.00 Units)
Week 4: 0-1 ATS (-5.50 Units)
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I am bound to catch fire and honestly I can't wait for that to happen, this stuff is getting old (slow starts). Good Luck to all this week!
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The West Virginia Mountaineers are not like other Big East teams so all this talk about the Conference going down the gutter in 2008 (although I do agree with most of it) should not include these guys. I look at this program a lot differently than I look at programs like Cincinnati, Syracuse, Rutgers and Louisville and I think the only three Big East teams worth betting a penny on this season are going to be West Virginia, South Florida and probably Connecticut who have been impressive the last few seasons. I know for some of you it must be tough to back a team like the Mountaineers who are coming off an embarrassing 24-3 road loss to East Carolina a few weeks ago as -7 point favorites in that game and who have since had an off week to prepare for this game. How can you say that was a bad loss for this team seeing how the Pirates are now ranked and have wreaked havoc on other ranked teams since the season started just three weeks ago? Prior to the East Carolina game, West Virginia was one of the best teams to back in non-conference away games as they had won five straight and had won 14 of their last 16 road games. The loss is not the end of the world and I really think Bill Stewart is going to get his guys together in this one and the Mountaineers should be back on track. West Virginia comes into this game averaging only 25.5 points per game so far in the Bill Stewart era and they have done that on only 302.5 total yards of offense per game and only 5.5 yards per play in those games. I have heard nothing but good things about this Colorado defense this season as they try to improve on the 29 points per game they allowed in 2007. They come into this game having allowed 20.5 points per game this season on 304.0 total yards of offense and 4.4 yards per play in those games but their opposition has been weak and their true defense should be exposed tonight. On the ground, you have to expect this team to continue some of the success they had in 2007 as they rushed for 297 yards per game and I like what I have seen so far this season as the Mountaineers average 164.0 rushing yards per game so far on 5.7 yards per carry which shows me they are picking things up. Colorado has allowed only 59.0 rushing yards on the season for only 2.5 yards per carry but that was against Colorado State and Eastern Washington (neither have any kind of running attack). Now they have to face Pat White and Noel Devine and I think the lights go out early in Colorado. In the air, QB Pat White has completed an impressive 70.6% of his passes for 5.5 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 1 interception which is not bad but it has not been enough to this point. Colorado's weakness is no doubt their secondary as they have allowed opponents to complete 66.3% of their passes this season for 5.5 yards per pass attempt but that is probably because they are so aggressive and take so many risks. What I mean by that is that they jump routes and come after QB's which is why I don't think they matchup well with White and the Mountaineers even though they have 6 sacks, 4 interceptions and have recovered 1 fumble on the season. White has been sacked only 3 times this season and he has thrown only 1 interception and the team has lost two fumbles. I think the Mountaineers can come into this game and finally get a good mix of running and passing as they will soften up the Colorado defense with an early ground attack only to have Pat White hook up with WR Jock Sanders like he has already done a few times this season. Devine and White have combined for 301 rushing yards this season but neither one of them has a rushing touchdown which is something I don't expect will last past this game here. West Virginia will pound away on the ground, eventually tiring the defensive line and eventually taking over the game of clock control. I think this team is too good not to have a big game here and I see them getting back on track with a big win. West Virginia is 9-3-2 ATS on the road as a favorite the last three seasons (including last week's game).
The Colorado Buffaloes are coming off a 6-7 season that Dan Hawkins reach his first ever Bowl Game with the program as they walked into the Independence Bowl as +3 underdogs against a listless Alabama team but came out of there 30-24 losers. That set the tone for this season but for whatever reason I just can't back this team against non-conference opponents and I can only back them when they are huge home underdogs later on this season against Texas, Oklahoma State and maybe Kansas State. Since the arrival of Hawkins this team is only 2-4 ATS in their six home games as underdogs and the upset special is never really a factor here. The Buffs are already 2-0 SU and 1-0 ATS on the season but this is their first real challenge of the year as Colorado State is one of the worst I-A football teams in the Nation and Eastern Washington is I-AA. I find it interesting to point out that Colorado is 1-7 SU in their last eight home games versus non-conference BCS teams like West Virginia, losing those games by an average of 16 points per game. When you match these two teams up I just don't see how Colorado can stop West Virginia and their only hope of covering this spread in my mind is if they somehow take the early lead, make it big and managed to somehow hold on for a big win. Other than that the chances are bleak. Colorado comes into this game averaging 34.5 points per game and they have managed to do that by also averaging 359.5 total yards of offense per game on 5.2 yards per play this season. West Virginia has not been impressive at all defensively so far allowing 22.5 points per game this season on 392.5 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play but I expect them to come off the off week with a bit of fire in their game. On the ground, the only hope Colorado has of winning this game is if #1 High School recruit RB Darrell Scott has a breaking out party on National TV. He has been less than impressive so far this season and the Buffs average only 122.0 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry in those games. That's just not good enough. West Virginia has allowed only 138.0 rushing yards per game this season on 3.0 yards per carry and this will make it easier for the Mountaineers to make some plays in the secondary if Scott can't get going. In the air, QB Cody Hawkins has completed 71.6% of his passes this season for 475 passing yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes but 2 interceptions. West Virginia has been soft in the secondary this season allowing opponents to complete 66.7% of their passes for 7.7 yards per pass attempt but I think they will make the adjustments needed to contain Hawkins and keep him on a short passing leash. The kid has good protection having been sacked only 2 times this season but much like 2007 when pressured he makes mistakes (17 interceptions last season) and West Virginia will probably come after him early in this one. I have two big concerns with this Colorado team seeing how this game is being played on National TV and seeing how most of these guys will get a bit too excited. First of all the Buffs have fumbled the ball 9 times already this season and lost only 2 of those fumbles. Luck won't be the same against a team like WVU. Second of all, this team is averaging 9.0 penalties per game this season for 64.0 penalty yards per game which is a huge concern seeing how West Virginia average only 38.0 yards of penalties per game this season and have taken only 9 penalties in two games. This is not a fancy defense by any means but it will be no secret that Cody Hawkins is going to try and pick them apart and I just don't see that happening with a disciplined bunch under Bill Stewart. Colorado will score some points but they won't cover the spread playing from behind most of the game and I see them making quite a few mistakes in this game.
I am loving it guys. We are getting a very favorable line for this game for the simple fact that West Virginia is coming off that shocking road loss to East Carolina on September 6 (did you know ECU was now a ranked team so the loss really isn't that bad). Let me please remind you that Colorado is 1-7 SU in their last eight home games versus non-conference BCS teams like West Virginia, losing those games by an average of 16 points per game. This game kind of reminds of the West Virginia at Rutgers game in 2007 because everyone doubted the Mountaineers at this point and they were favored by only -6 on the road, a game they ended up winning 31-3. Having expect a Big 12 win over the Big East last night, I am going to go the other way and say that the Big East will even this week's series until the rubber match tomorrow night at UConn. West Virginia has always been one to rebound well from big losses as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games that follow a straight up loss of 20+ points. They are also an impressive 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games and I have no problems backing them in non-conference action. Colorado has covered the spread in only 2 of their last 9 games that follow a win the game before and this is a really bad matchup for them. WVU TO THE BANK GUYS!
Trend of the Game: West Virginia is 5-1 ATS in their last six games that follow a straight up loss of 20+ points.
West Virginia 28, Colorado 10
The Baylor Bears are on a roll. Well maybe not but their win last Friday was huge for the program and it was huge for the plethora of cappers who picked the Bears to demolish Washington State, which they did. That win has the Bears believing they can do a lot more than just win a home game against a weak PAC 10 opponent. There is no doubt in anyone's mind that this Baylor team is a lot better than the one of years past and I say that because three games into the season, the Bears are almost at their win total of 3 games from just on year ago in 2007 and I have a feeling this team is going to flirt with Bowl eligibility at some point. This is a very winnable game for these guys because the Big East has taken quite a few notches in the wrong direction this season and if Baylor can play the way they have the last two weeks, and a lot of experts really think they can walk into UConn and shock the Huskies. I found an interesting note showing that Baylor is 11-2 SU in their last 13 games prior to a bye since the 1994 season and although many of those games were quite a long time ago, I strongly believe this team is destined for good things. Their wins over Washington State and Northwestern State were impressive and you can't forget that for at least a portion of their game against Wake Forest, this Bears team did compete and they did make a game of it so they are dangerous. Baylor comes into this game averaging a very decent 36.3 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on a whopping 447.3 total yards of offense per game and 7.2 yards per play in those games. Connecticut's defense has played well this season and they have allowed only 7.3 points per game this season and have allowed 229.0 total yards of offense per game on 4.0 yards play in those games. On the ground is where I think Baylor could have some success in this one as they have averaged a whopping 242.3 rushing yards per game on the season and in those games have averaged 6.3 yards per carry. QB Robert Griffin leads the team in rushing with 288 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns which is impressive considering he passes as well as he throws. The Huskies defense has allowed opponents to rush for only 66.3 yards per game this season on 2.6 yards per carry but they have yet to face a double threat QB like Griffin which is where I think they will make some adjustments and allow themselves to pull away once they do. In the air, Griffin has completed 62.3% of his passes this season for 10.3 yards per pass attempts, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions (which is impressive even after playing against Wake Forest the INT machines). Connecticut's defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 56.4% of their pass attempts this season for 5.2 yards per pass attempt. Griffin has been sacked only 4 times this season, remarkable considering the state of the O-Line, and his mobility will be huge tonight against a Huskies defense that already has 9 sacks on the season. The Huskies also have 6 interceptions on the year but they have recovered only one fumble. In other words UConn has no trouble stopping teams that throw interceptions and allow a lot of pressure on their QBs. Well Baylor does neither and I think they will actually have their offense on the move but as to how long that will last, I'm not sure. The Bears have lost 4 fumbles this season and that could be a problem because they are a team not used to running the ball so many times per game and I have no doubts they will turn the ball over when this game matters most. With a nice little dose of running game combined with Griffin's ability to find a great group of receivers on the deep ball, the Huskies defense will probably struggle early in this game until they get things together and realize that if you contain Griffin, he really has nothing but his legs and his ability to throw downfield. He is still a bit raw. This is the biggest test for the UConn defense and although they have played well, the duo threat QB is going to be a challenge and I think the oddsmakers did a good job with this line. I like Baylor but not on a Friday night and not in this place.
The Connecticut Huskies are off to quite the start to the season as they are 3-0 SU with a very good chance of being 4-0 SU once this week is all said and done. I know a lot of you are not willing to back a Connecticut team that had all sorts of problems beating Temple a few weeks ago on the road but this game is not being played away from home it is being played in the very friendly home confines of Rentschler Field which will be packed 40 000 deep for this game no doubt about it. No the only lined game they have played at home this season was last weekend when they absolutely demolished Virgina in a 45-10 romp that probably has some Baylor backers worried if the defense is a no-show tonight. UConn is one of those teams with a big time home field advantage because this place actually gets really loud and the Huskies went 5-1 ATS here last season. They are also 13-4 ATS the last three seasons on this grass and you have to keep in mind that this is a team loaded with Senior and upperclassmen as they managed to return 17 of their starters this season. So far so good for this team but playing against a Big 12 opponent will be their first real big test and I don't think they should have too many problems. This game reminds me of the home game against Akron last season when the Huskies were favored by 15 points and ended up winning 44-10 or even last week as double digit favorites against Virginia. Connecticut comes into this game averaging a whopping 30.7 points per game this season and they have managed to that by also averaging 445.3 total yards of offense per game at 6.1 yards per play. The Baylor defense has looked stout but the opposition has been weak. The Bears have allowed 21.3 points per game this season and they have done that by also allowing 302.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.0 yards per play in those games which is not bad at all. On the ground is where this game will be won or lost. I say that because both teams can run the ball but can both teams stop the ball? UConn will probably be without RB Andre Dixon (last season's leading rusher) but I am not concerned because they haven't had him all season and have still managed to rush for 297.7 yards per game on an incredible 5.9 yards per carry. RB Donald Brown II already has 8 rushing touchdowns and 566 rushing yards in three games. Baylor's run defense has managed to allow only 95 rushing yards per game this season on only 2.5 yards per carry but never in the last five seasons has Baylor allowed anything less than 4.1 yards per carry in a season on average. In the air, QB Tyler Lorenzen needs to get better with his arm having completed 59.7% of his passes for 6.35 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 4 interceptions and 149 rushing yards so not bad. Baylor's secondary should have issues all night with all the concerns in the running game and they have allowed opponents this season to complete 63.6% of their passes for 5.8 yards per pass attempt. This is an aggressive defense that already has 12 sacks on the season but UConn's offensive line is tremendous and Lorenzen has been sacked only 2 times all season. Like I said before this is a very aggressive Baylor defense that has also forced 3 interceptions on the season, recovered 6 opponent fumbles and forced another just for good measure. Having said that, Baylor lacks the discipline needed to keep a game like this close as they average 7.7 penalties per game to Connecticut's 4.0 penalties per game. I think this defense is going to get a bit too excited at times and they will try to do too much to stop the running game. That should wear down the linebackers and the secondary and give Lorenzen a nice little chance to boost his passing touchdowns with guys downfield like Ellis Gaulden and Anthony Sherman who can both go deep and get open in a game like this. The key for the UConn offense in this game is to keep the mistakes to a minimum because they have all the weapons in the world to make this a blowout and once Baylor starts panicking and making mistakes, I don't think this game is going to last very long.
How can you not bet on the Baylor Bears after their showing last Friday right? Wrong. It's still Baylor and the mention of the Bears and ATS wins combined is very rare but this team has somewhat turned the corner and the onus is on them to perform here in the Big 12 vs. Big East series finale match of the week (assuming Louisville, well they did, and West Virginia won their games). The Bears have to save grace for the Big 12 to avoid going 0-3 SU this early week against a Conference that was supposed to be weakened this season. This is only the second time ever Connecticut is playing against a team from the Big 12 and their first try in 2002 went quite well as they managed a 37-20 win. Home Field advantage is going to be huge here for UConn because they are the better team, they are playing in front of their loud fans and they play a very similar style of football as the Baylor Bears only they have a much better coach. Todd Orlando has done a great job as the defensive coordinator for the Huskies and I think he can find a way to contain Griffin in this game and force him into mistakes. Baylor is only 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games which is a clear indication once again that covering spreads is foreign to them. They have covered only 2 of their last 9 road games while UConn is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six home games and probably one of the more dominating home teams in the Big East. I think Huskies make this ugly.
Trend of the Game: Connecticut is 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 non-conference games.
Connecticut 37, Baylor 14
The Troy Trojans have not been around lined games for all that long as it was only in the 2001 season that bettors began having the option to bet on them from week to week basis. Well they have gone 38-31-1 ATS since the beginning of that and I have to admit this has been a profitable team to follow over the years. The reason most handicappers won't back them is because they know nothing about them and that is a big time concern for lines this large because make no mistake about it, this is a very well coached team with loads of talent on the sidelines and I would not put it past them to actually win this game straight up. Sure you think I'm full of shit but I am dead serious and I just don't see why not. The Trojans are coming off an easy 65-0 win over I-AA Alcorn State in a non-lined game and in their first lined game of the season, the Trojans covered with easy -6 point favorites at Middle Tennessee in a 31-17 win. I know the stats are not good and Troy is only 1-13 SU lifetime versus teams ranked in the TOP 25 (Missouri in 2004 was their only win) but they have competed. Take a look at 2004 when they beat Missouri and went #18 LSU losing only 24-20. How about in 2006 when they went to #9 Florida State as +29 point underdogs and lost only 24-17? Or even last season when they went to #21 Arkansas and lost by only 20 as +23 point underdogs or when they went to #10 Georgia as +15 underdogs and lost 44-34. The win is coming against a huge opponent and this could be the time. Troy comes into this game averaging 48.0 points per game and they have managed to do that by also averaging 518.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.1 yards per play with good clock control. Ohio State's defense was somewhat exposed last week against the Trojans and they have now allowed 16.3 points per game this season and have managed to do that by allowing 225.3 total yards of offense per game and 4.1 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Troy has been very efficient rushing for 239.5 yards per game and they also have 5.6 yards per carry. This is a very good looking core of RB's (Maurice Greer is a top recruit and is averaging 10.4 yards per carry) and they could give Ohio State headaches as the Buckeyes have allowed 3.5 yards per carry this season on 99.3 rushing yards per game. In the air, QB Jaime Hampton has a lot to learn but he has completed 66.2% of his passes this season for 459 passing yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. Hampton is a quick moving QB who can avoid pressure by moving out of the pocket and he has taken only 3 sacks this season forcing a few of those interceptions. Ohio State's front line pressure has been non-existent as they have only 4 sacks in three games which could be a problem if they can't force Hampton into turnovers. The Buckeyes have allowed opposing QB's to complete 51.2% of their passes this season for 4.6 yards per pass attempt with 5 interceptions by their stout and opportunistic secondary. Having said that, I think the Trojans can win the battles in the middle because if Hampton has time he is going to stand firm in that pocket and hit one of his many speedy receivers on the fly. The main concern for this Troy team has been the 5 fumbles lost in two games as well as the 7 total fumbles in those two games. If you make mistakes like that against a team like Ohio State you are not going to come close to winning. Having said all of that, Ohio State has recovered only 2 fumbles in three games this season and like I said before, their defense does not have the look of the defense we saw the last two seasons that barely allowed 10 points per game. Ohio managed to score 14 points against the Buckeyes and the scary part about that is that Troy's offense is so much better than Ohio's so expect them to score in the 20's. As long as the offense can move the chains on a regular and consistent basis in this game, they will have a chance to pull off the impossible, something they have been trying to do since that infamous night where they knocked off #19 Missouri at home for the most historic win in program history. I love the Trojans as underdogs here because I like their running game, I like their coach and I think they can control the clock and keep Ohio State off the field.
The Ohio State Buckeyes know they are in a heap of trouble here. I was on them with my PLAY OF THE WEEK in Week 3 against USC and they were badly exposed in a 35-3. I hate to say this but which clowns came up with the idea of making a team +11 one week and -20 the next week. That is a complete 30 points swing that makes absolutely no sense and I was hoping to get this type of line for this game. Apart from their 43-0 win over Youngstown State to open the season, have you been impressed at all by what you have seen this Jim Tressel team do? Not me. I don't care what you tell me about this team, they have looked nothing more than vanilla from game to game and even though they are one of the most talented teams in the Country, scoring points continues to be a problem under Jim Tressel (30+ points per game the last three seasons but against really weak Big Ten opponents) and I just don't like the look of this team. The word out of Columbus is that RB Beanie Wells is not playing in this game as he will be rested for Big Ten play that starts next week when the Buckeyes host Minnesota. This is a team that very much resembles Appalachian State from a year ago, the very same team that walked into a sacred Big Ten house and pulled off a shocking upset. Ohio State is an impressive 43-1 SU since 1991 at home versus opponents from other Conferences and this is their first ever game versus a team from the Sun Belt Conference. Ohio State comes into this game averaging 24.0 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on 324.7 total yards of offense and only 4.7 yards per play. That's weak for any TOP 10 team I don't care who they have played. Troy's defense does bring back their top three tacklers and the team has allowed only 8.5 points per game this season and allowed only 202.0 total yards of offense per game on only 2.8 yards per play. I know the opposition is different this time around but don't tell me DC Jeremy Rowell doesn't have his groove on this season. On the ground, Ohio State will continue to struggle without Beanie Wells as they are down to averaging only 161.3 rushing yards per game this season on 4.1 yards per carry. Size could be an issue but the Trojans have a tough defensive line and they have managed to allow only 78.0 rushing yards per game this season and have given up only 2.1 yards per carry which means that even though we will probably see a lot of QB Terrelle Pryor in this game, this is a good contain group and they can force him to throw. Pryor and QB Todd Boeckman have combined to complete 65.2% of their passes this season and they have managed to do that on only 5.5 yards per pass attempt which is nowhere near good enough to win games by this many points. The Troy secondary lost Leodis McKelvin to the NFL draft and many thought they would suffer but they have battled and opponents have completed only 45.1% of their passes this season for 3.5 yards per pass attempt. I know the Buckeyes plan on running the ball in this game but they also have to throw and doing anything against this defense is going to cause problems, keep the game close and setup the potential huge upset. The Trojans have great pressure up front recording 5 sacks in two games and they have one of the most underrated secondaries in college football with 7 interceptions in two games. I have to also mention that Troy has forced 8 fumbles in those two games and they are not going to back down from coming after Ohio State all game. Like we saw in the USC game, if you pressure these guys on the Buckeyes they do make mistakes and as long as Troy can contain Brian Hartline in the middle of the field, they are going to come up with some huge plays in this game and almost everyone will know who the Troy Trojans defense is. Until Beanie Wells comes back healthy, this offense is nothing more than pedestrian and even with the addition of more playing time for Pryor, I really don't see that making all that much of a difference here. I expect Ohio State to struggle on the scoreboard and if for some reason they end up playing from behind like they have done in both their lined games this season, I don't think they will be as lucky as in the past and Troy will come in here and shock them. Just watch.
The public perception of this game is that Ohio State is going to bounce back large against a virtual newcomer in the world of college football betting but I don't agree with that theory. Reason for that being that Ohio State almost lost to Ohio prior to the USC game and I think people are going to start to realize that this team is not all that good and that big changes are needed in Columbus. Do you all remember Michigan losing to Appalachian State last season at home and then having the public all over them as -7 point favorites at home against Oregon the following game expecting a bounce back? Well they fell flat on their faces and so did the public in a 37-7 Michigan loss. How can you not like an underdog that has a very underrated defense, that has played against a lot of TOP 25 opponents over the years, that has come close to beating TOP 25 teams over the years and that is coached by Larry Blakeney? Troy has covered 9 of their last 11 road games and they are an impressive 6-1 ATS in their last seven games where they score 40 or more points the game before. Ohio State does have 'BOUNCE BACK' on their minds, that's for sure but I don't see them getting it done, I see this more as the demise of a team coming off two straight National Title Game appearances. I know it's crazy but Troy has what it takes to win this game straight up. Bad opponent for the Buckeyes.
Trend of the Game: Troy is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
Troy 24, Ohio State 22
The Florida Gators are going to be tested for the first time this season in this game as they head to Knoxville and take on Fulmer's Tennessee Volunteers. This is the beginning of the real SEC schedule play as things will only get tough from here on in if you play in the best Conference in all of college football. What I really like about Florida here is that being National Title contenders and all this game means everything to them and Urban Meyer has had a full week off to prepare for what he likes to call THE GAME OF THE YEAR so far (I have a feeling he will call every SEC game that this season). I know some cappers are concerned about betting on such a high spread when typically these inter-conference SEC games have seen much lower spreads in the past but you have to understand that Florida hates Tennessee and vice versa and there will be no letting up once they take the lead. The Gators walked into this place a few years ago (National Title season) and came out with a 21-20 win as -4.5 point favorites. However, in Tim Tebow's first year at the helms of this Gators team, Florida completely demolished Tennessee in 2007 by a score of 59-20 which had the Vols wondering if they belong. For those of you concerned that they can't win an SEC game on the road by more than a few points, how about their 20 point win over South Carolina last season or their 8 point win at Kentucky? Florida comes into this game ready for a fight. They average 41.0 points per game this season and they have managed to score those points on 375.5 total yards of offense and 6.4 yards per play in those games. That is not very Urban Meyer like and I think he has been saving some big plays for this game. The Tennessee defense has allowed 15.0 points per game on the season and in those games they have also allowed 281.5 total yards of offense per game and 4.2 yards per play which is not too bad. On the ground, I don't think we have seen the best of the Gators as they have rushed for 172.0 yards per game on the season for 5.3 yards per carry. Tebow and freshman RB Jeffrey Demps have led the team so far this season but I expect guys like Rainey and Moore to really get things going this week for the first time this season. Tennessee has allowed only 68.5 rushing yards per game this season on 2.4 yards per carry but this is the best rushing attack they have seen all year by far which should throw them off. In the air, QB Tim Tebow has completed 61.2% of his passes this season for 393 passing yards, 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown and 0 interceptions which is pretty decent for a slow start. The Vols have allowed their opponents this season to complete 57.1% of their passes for 5.5 yards per pass attempt which is not bad at all but their pressure up front has not been all that great as they have only 2 sacks on the season and if they can't get pressure on this backfield, Tebow and company are going to torch them. Yes the defense has 7 interceptions already this season UCLA and UAB have two of the most useless QB's in college football and Tebow is not about to make mistakes passing the ball in this game. He has yet to throw an interception and has been sacked only 2 times this season. If you are going to beat this Gators team or come close to doing so at home or on the road, you better make sure you can get some takeaways because this offense won't punt the ball very much. Florida has not lost a single fumble in two games while Tennessee has yet to recover a fumble in either of the games they played this season. I think this game is going to come down to who takes penalties, when they take those penalties and how they take those penalties. Both teams have had problems in the past with penalties and things have not changed. I expect Tebow to establish a great ground attack in this game, taking control of the clock and then dropping a few deep bomb daggers in the collective Tennessee hearts.
The Tennessee Volunteers are going to be playing with a sense of urgency in this game but they are also going to be playing with a sense of fear. I say that because they know they got beat by this Florida team 59-20 last season (virtually unheard score in tight SEC games like that one) and they know that Florida has now beat them three straight seasons and the Gators are 3-0 ATS in those meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. We all saw how the Vols played in their season opening game against UCLA, the same UCLA team that got completely demolished a few weeks later and that has not looked good at all. The only game the Vols can really talk about this season is their 35-3 win over UAB as -33 point favorites last week. Unlike the Gators, the Vols have not had an entire week off to prepare for this game and even though they played a conservative second half last week, I still think Fulmer has some tricks up his sleeve here and I think he is going to take some big risks against the Gators. Tennessee has been a very good home underdog the last four seasons going 4-0 ATS including that spread cover against the Gators in 2006 but times have changed and this Vols team is not as good as the 2007 version. They say the team that can run the ball better will win the game when these two meet and just to let you know, Tennessee has averaged 13 rushing yards per game the last two season. The Vols come into this game averaging 29.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 457.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.1 yards per play in those games. Florida's defense has a few injuries to work with this week but they are coming off a bye week and they have allowed only 6.5 points per game this season and in those games managed to allow only 190.5 total yards of offense and 3.1 yards per play against those opponents. On the ground, Tennessee can't win without running the ball and they have rushed for 221.5 rushing yards this season on 5.9 yards per carry which is impressive. However, the problem is getting past that Florida defensive line that has allowed other team to rush for only 60.5 yards this season on 2.0 yards per carry. You would almost need a mobile QB who can really move to beat this team and the Vols really don't have that handy. In the air, QB Johnathan Crompton has completed only 52.1% of his passes for 429 passing yards, 5.9 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. He is nothing like the departed Erik Ainge and that is going to play a huge factor in this game if you ask me. I say that because he lacks the game sense that Ainge had and I don't know that he can handle the Florida pass rush that already has 7 sacks on the season in two games. The Gators have allowed opponents to complete 54.1% of their passes this season for only 4.3 yards per pass attempt and they have intercepted 4 passes already as a direct result of the pressure they manage to generate on a play by play basis. Florida has also recovered two fumbles on aggressive defensive play calling and with so much pressure coming from all sides, this defense can really make Crompton lose his mind which I see happening. The kid doesn't have the composure needed to win big SEC games like this so he normally relies on his ground game to do the dirty work and he steals a few late bombs in the game. The schedule doesn't get any easier for Tennessee because they have to travel to Auburn next week and that is probably another loss in the waiting, meaning this Fulmer team is going to start the season 1-3 SU. The general atmosphere around the team that beat Wisconsin in the Outback Bowl last season is that they don't stand a chance at a New Year's Day Bowl game this season and all these early season losses are probably going to affect the way they play down the stretch. I would normally take this Vols running attack and back them in SEC games but Florida's defense is too stout, too solid and just too damn good to allow the Vols to do much in this game.
Prolific SEC East type of game? Not quite. The Vols have their weakest team in a long time, they have already looked like shit and lost to UCLA on the road in their season opener and my feeling that Fulmer's time as head coach of this program is coming to an end. Florida on the other hand has to anticipate losing a game at some point this season so the most important games are the ones like this, the ones the BCS Computer is going to scan and see that they beat an SEC East foe by quite the large margin. These two teams have played some close games over the years but Florida is just that much better with Tebow and until he leaves this school, the spreads will continue to be this high and I will continue to back them. Florida has never been a good team to back in September as they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight September games but I do like the fact that they are 4-1 ATS in both their last five road games and their last five SEC games. Tennessee on the other hand has always played well at home, they have been very profitable at home against conference opponents but they are too badly outmatched in this game to keep it close. Much like last season's matchup, the Gators will grab the early lead, never look back and probably pour it on big time by the time we hit mid-second half. I like the Gators to win this game by at least two touchdowns.
Trend of the Game: Florida is 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games.
Florida 28, Tennessee 14
The Wake Forest Deacons continue to be disrespected by oddsmakers when it comes to inter-conference ACC Conference games like this one and I don't know about you guys but I am not missing a chance to cash in on these guys again. Wake Forest is the road team, they are the underdog but this is where they have made their money the last three seasons and you would have to be crazy not to bet on them in this spot. They are going to be coming off an bye week which means Jim Grobe has had even more time to prepare his guys for one hell of a physical war and the best part is the Deacons don't have to look forward to any other games because they get Navy at home next week and then another full week off to prepare for Clemson on home turf. WHAT A LIFE IT IS FOR WAKE FOREST! So we all know this is going to be a back and forth battle with the last possession probably determining the winner but that's the best way to have it. After going 5-0 ATS as a road underdog in 2006 (the year they finished 11-3 SU overall), Wake Forest had issues playing on the road last season as they went 0-2 ATS in road games where they were the underdog. They have enough guys returning this season to turn things back around in the right direction and this is where it starts. Wake Forest comes into this game averaging a very healthy 35.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 362.0 total yards of offense and 4.7 yards per play. You got it, that's nothing compared to what this team has done in the past but I am not worried. On the ground, the Deacons come into this game averaging only 118.5 rushing yards per game on 3.2 yards per carry and I don't really see things getting better for them in this game as Florida State has been great against the run and they have allowed only 39.0 rushing yards per game this season on 1.2 yards per carry. Josh Adams is going to have to attack the weak spots with a lot more authority this week if he expects to get anything done against this defense and if they can gain some ground running the ball, expect the air attack to look good. QB Riley Skinner has completed 74.7% of his passes this season for 487 passing yards, 6.2 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions which is pretty damn impressive and which makes up for the lack of running game. Florida State has yet to face a real opponent so we don't know how their defense will react but so far they have allowed opponents to complete only 47.6% of their passes this season for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. The big concern with Wake Forest has been their offensive line because they have already allowed 5 sacks in two games and the Seminoles defensive line is very aggressive. The Noles already have 7 sacks on the season but I don't think they will get to Skinner as much as we think in this game for the simple reason that this is a real opponent for a change. What you have to admire about Skinner is that despite all the pressure he has seen this season he has not thrown an interception. Many cappers have raised concerns with Wake Forest and the fact that they fumble the ball a lot and yes that is another concern. The Deacons have lost 3 fumbles already this season against Baylor and Mississippi and you can consider that lucky seeing how they actually fumbled it 7 times already. Florida State has 2 fumble recoveries already this season but the Noles have always been guilty defensively of trying to strip the ball instead of making the tackle which is not a good things in games like this. You cannot let Wake Forest get anything going on offense or they will turn up the hear and burn you bad. I like that Grobe has had his guys well disciplined for years now and the trend has not changed this season as the team has taken only 4.5 penalties per game. As long as Deacons don't abandon the run game, Skinner will have chances to hit some open receivers in the slot and I really think the Deacons can catch FSU off-guard with a mix of screen/play action fakes. Wake Forest keeps this low-scoring with their defense and wins with a late touchdown.
The Florida State Seminoles have screwed me over in the world of sports betting way too many times and I have a feeling this is another one of those games where FSU backers will get the shaft. Bobby Bowden has to go, everyone knows it and until he does this team is not going to win games the way they used to win them. The Miami Hurricanes are one step ahead of the game because they already have a new coach in place and they will turn their program around in time to win big games like this one. Florida State on the other hand continues to keep the old man around and they have not had a winning ATS season since the 2003 season where they still went only 7-6 ATS that year. The Noles have since gone 5-7 ATS (2004), 6-6 ATS (2005), 6-7 ATS (2006) and 6-7 ATS (2007). With that kind of inconsistency I think it would be safe for most to jump on Wake Forest now seeing how the Noles are already off to a bad start having only played two non-lined games to start their season. Beating up on shitty opponents will only give you a false sense of authority on the field and big ACC games like this will expose the weak teams. The Noles have lost two straight games in this series and to be honest with you I don't know that this team has improved since those two games. Florida State comes into this game averaging a whopping and impressive 57.5 points per game this season but let it be known that both their opponents were I-AA opponents and that makes a huge difference. In those two games they have managed to get 529.5 total yards of offense per game and a nation leading 8.4 yards per play which is also impressive. Having said that, it's now back to reality where they have to face a Wake Forest defense that has played two very real games and allowed only 20.5 points per game this season and in those games allowed only 305.0 total yards of offense on a very respectable 4.8 yards per play (considering their opponents were from the SEC and the Big 12). On the ground, it looks like FSU finally has a running game as they average 243.5 rushing yards per game this season on 7.6 yards per carry. I don't see them having that kind of success against a Decons defense that is tough and aggressive and that has allowed only 100.5 rushing yards per game this season on 3.2 yards per carry. In the air, there is no chance you will find me trusting these inconsistent QB's on Florida State even though QB Christian Ponder is the new chief in town and he has completed 62.5% of his passes this season for 380 passing yards, 9.5 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. So does this team finally have the QB star they have so badly looked for the last five or six seasons? I don't know. I can't wait to see how this kid does against a Wake Forest defense that has allowed opponents to complete only 55.6% of their passes this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. I have to remind you guys that this is a high risk high reward kind of defense that sometimes allows big plays because they are too aggressive. The Deacons have 4 interceptions in two games this season to go along with 2 sacks and a whopping 8 forced fumbles (recovering only 4 of them). I still have big concerns about this Florida State defensive line against a much tougher ACC opponent because they have already allowed 4 sacks in two games versus opponents from another galaxy and I just don't think that's acceptable if they are going to win the big games like this one. I know some of you are going to praise QB Christian Ponder for what he has done so far but let me bring you guys back to last year's game against Virginia Tech where Weatherford was injured early and instead of going with Xavier Lee they went with Ponder who went 8 for 18, 105 yards passing and 2 interceptions which lost them the game as VT came from behind and won the game big. I know this is almost a year later but Wake Forest knows they have to come after Ponder and come after him they will. This secondary will be ready for his errant passes (they will surely come) and he does not have enough experience to lead this team to a big win as home favorites like this. I like Wake Forest and their defense to school to sophomore.
This is a battle for the ages between two teams picked by all the pre-season experts to finish 1-2 in the race for the ACC Atlantic Division Title. Well so far so good for both teams and now they collide for what should be an epic football game, possibly at times a little bit boring. Nah how can this be boring when your season is virtually on the line, the loser knowing that a loss here and they probably don't play in a BCS Bowl Game like both programs expected before the season started. On one side you have one of the most exciting passers (Riley Skinner) in the ACC going up against one of the rawest QB's in the ACC this season who's only true conference action last season was a disaster. I think it's a mistake to go with Ponder in this game but I don't call the shots. Wake Forest is coming off a very surprising and rare ATS loss last week against Ole Miss so I think they will bounce back nicely to open ACC play and I like the fact that they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss the week before. They are also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road versus teams with winning home records. Florida State is always hyped up at this time of the year because they come off those big wins over I-AA schools who look clueless but truly Florida State is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a game where they allowed less than 20 points the game before and 0-5 ATS following their last five games where they won by 20+ points the game before. All signs point to a Wake Forest win here.
Trend of the Game: Wake Forest is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games versus teams with a winning home record.
Wake Forest 19, Florida State 16
This is definitely not the kind of start to the season I was expecting but I can only go up from here and things will be better. The overall goal is to finish around 65-70% on the year. I don't know how possible that is but I will do my best to reach that goal.
Week 1: 4-6 ATS (+3.20 Units)
Week 2: 3-3 ATS (-12.50 Units)
Week 3: 2-3-1 ATS (-29.00 Units)
Week 4: 0-1 ATS (-5.50 Units)
You can tail, you can fade or you can just watch. I am bound to catch fire and honestly I can't wait for that to happen, this stuff is getting old (slow starts). Good Luck to all this week!
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Thursday, September 18
West Virginia Mountaineers -3 (10 Units)
West Virginia Mountaineers -3 (10 Units)
The West Virginia Mountaineers are not like other Big East teams so all this talk about the Conference going down the gutter in 2008 (although I do agree with most of it) should not include these guys. I look at this program a lot differently than I look at programs like Cincinnati, Syracuse, Rutgers and Louisville and I think the only three Big East teams worth betting a penny on this season are going to be West Virginia, South Florida and probably Connecticut who have been impressive the last few seasons. I know for some of you it must be tough to back a team like the Mountaineers who are coming off an embarrassing 24-3 road loss to East Carolina a few weeks ago as -7 point favorites in that game and who have since had an off week to prepare for this game. How can you say that was a bad loss for this team seeing how the Pirates are now ranked and have wreaked havoc on other ranked teams since the season started just three weeks ago? Prior to the East Carolina game, West Virginia was one of the best teams to back in non-conference away games as they had won five straight and had won 14 of their last 16 road games. The loss is not the end of the world and I really think Bill Stewart is going to get his guys together in this one and the Mountaineers should be back on track. West Virginia comes into this game averaging only 25.5 points per game so far in the Bill Stewart era and they have done that on only 302.5 total yards of offense per game and only 5.5 yards per play in those games. I have heard nothing but good things about this Colorado defense this season as they try to improve on the 29 points per game they allowed in 2007. They come into this game having allowed 20.5 points per game this season on 304.0 total yards of offense and 4.4 yards per play in those games but their opposition has been weak and their true defense should be exposed tonight. On the ground, you have to expect this team to continue some of the success they had in 2007 as they rushed for 297 yards per game and I like what I have seen so far this season as the Mountaineers average 164.0 rushing yards per game so far on 5.7 yards per carry which shows me they are picking things up. Colorado has allowed only 59.0 rushing yards on the season for only 2.5 yards per carry but that was against Colorado State and Eastern Washington (neither have any kind of running attack). Now they have to face Pat White and Noel Devine and I think the lights go out early in Colorado. In the air, QB Pat White has completed an impressive 70.6% of his passes for 5.5 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 1 interception which is not bad but it has not been enough to this point. Colorado's weakness is no doubt their secondary as they have allowed opponents to complete 66.3% of their passes this season for 5.5 yards per pass attempt but that is probably because they are so aggressive and take so many risks. What I mean by that is that they jump routes and come after QB's which is why I don't think they matchup well with White and the Mountaineers even though they have 6 sacks, 4 interceptions and have recovered 1 fumble on the season. White has been sacked only 3 times this season and he has thrown only 1 interception and the team has lost two fumbles. I think the Mountaineers can come into this game and finally get a good mix of running and passing as they will soften up the Colorado defense with an early ground attack only to have Pat White hook up with WR Jock Sanders like he has already done a few times this season. Devine and White have combined for 301 rushing yards this season but neither one of them has a rushing touchdown which is something I don't expect will last past this game here. West Virginia will pound away on the ground, eventually tiring the defensive line and eventually taking over the game of clock control. I think this team is too good not to have a big game here and I see them getting back on track with a big win. West Virginia is 9-3-2 ATS on the road as a favorite the last three seasons (including last week's game).
The Colorado Buffaloes are coming off a 6-7 season that Dan Hawkins reach his first ever Bowl Game with the program as they walked into the Independence Bowl as +3 underdogs against a listless Alabama team but came out of there 30-24 losers. That set the tone for this season but for whatever reason I just can't back this team against non-conference opponents and I can only back them when they are huge home underdogs later on this season against Texas, Oklahoma State and maybe Kansas State. Since the arrival of Hawkins this team is only 2-4 ATS in their six home games as underdogs and the upset special is never really a factor here. The Buffs are already 2-0 SU and 1-0 ATS on the season but this is their first real challenge of the year as Colorado State is one of the worst I-A football teams in the Nation and Eastern Washington is I-AA. I find it interesting to point out that Colorado is 1-7 SU in their last eight home games versus non-conference BCS teams like West Virginia, losing those games by an average of 16 points per game. When you match these two teams up I just don't see how Colorado can stop West Virginia and their only hope of covering this spread in my mind is if they somehow take the early lead, make it big and managed to somehow hold on for a big win. Other than that the chances are bleak. Colorado comes into this game averaging 34.5 points per game and they have managed to do that by also averaging 359.5 total yards of offense per game on 5.2 yards per play this season. West Virginia has not been impressive at all defensively so far allowing 22.5 points per game this season on 392.5 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play but I expect them to come off the off week with a bit of fire in their game. On the ground, the only hope Colorado has of winning this game is if #1 High School recruit RB Darrell Scott has a breaking out party on National TV. He has been less than impressive so far this season and the Buffs average only 122.0 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry in those games. That's just not good enough. West Virginia has allowed only 138.0 rushing yards per game this season on 3.0 yards per carry and this will make it easier for the Mountaineers to make some plays in the secondary if Scott can't get going. In the air, QB Cody Hawkins has completed 71.6% of his passes this season for 475 passing yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes but 2 interceptions. West Virginia has been soft in the secondary this season allowing opponents to complete 66.7% of their passes for 7.7 yards per pass attempt but I think they will make the adjustments needed to contain Hawkins and keep him on a short passing leash. The kid has good protection having been sacked only 2 times this season but much like 2007 when pressured he makes mistakes (17 interceptions last season) and West Virginia will probably come after him early in this one. I have two big concerns with this Colorado team seeing how this game is being played on National TV and seeing how most of these guys will get a bit too excited. First of all the Buffs have fumbled the ball 9 times already this season and lost only 2 of those fumbles. Luck won't be the same against a team like WVU. Second of all, this team is averaging 9.0 penalties per game this season for 64.0 penalty yards per game which is a huge concern seeing how West Virginia average only 38.0 yards of penalties per game this season and have taken only 9 penalties in two games. This is not a fancy defense by any means but it will be no secret that Cody Hawkins is going to try and pick them apart and I just don't see that happening with a disciplined bunch under Bill Stewart. Colorado will score some points but they won't cover the spread playing from behind most of the game and I see them making quite a few mistakes in this game.
I am loving it guys. We are getting a very favorable line for this game for the simple fact that West Virginia is coming off that shocking road loss to East Carolina on September 6 (did you know ECU was now a ranked team so the loss really isn't that bad). Let me please remind you that Colorado is 1-7 SU in their last eight home games versus non-conference BCS teams like West Virginia, losing those games by an average of 16 points per game. This game kind of reminds of the West Virginia at Rutgers game in 2007 because everyone doubted the Mountaineers at this point and they were favored by only -6 on the road, a game they ended up winning 31-3. Having expect a Big 12 win over the Big East last night, I am going to go the other way and say that the Big East will even this week's series until the rubber match tomorrow night at UConn. West Virginia has always been one to rebound well from big losses as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games that follow a straight up loss of 20+ points. They are also an impressive 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games and I have no problems backing them in non-conference action. Colorado has covered the spread in only 2 of their last 9 games that follow a win the game before and this is a really bad matchup for them. WVU TO THE BANK GUYS!
Trend of the Game: West Virginia is 5-1 ATS in their last six games that follow a straight up loss of 20+ points.
West Virginia 28, Colorado 10
Friday, September 19
Connecticut Huskies -12 (5 Units)
Connecticut Huskies -12 (5 Units)
The Baylor Bears are on a roll. Well maybe not but their win last Friday was huge for the program and it was huge for the plethora of cappers who picked the Bears to demolish Washington State, which they did. That win has the Bears believing they can do a lot more than just win a home game against a weak PAC 10 opponent. There is no doubt in anyone's mind that this Baylor team is a lot better than the one of years past and I say that because three games into the season, the Bears are almost at their win total of 3 games from just on year ago in 2007 and I have a feeling this team is going to flirt with Bowl eligibility at some point. This is a very winnable game for these guys because the Big East has taken quite a few notches in the wrong direction this season and if Baylor can play the way they have the last two weeks, and a lot of experts really think they can walk into UConn and shock the Huskies. I found an interesting note showing that Baylor is 11-2 SU in their last 13 games prior to a bye since the 1994 season and although many of those games were quite a long time ago, I strongly believe this team is destined for good things. Their wins over Washington State and Northwestern State were impressive and you can't forget that for at least a portion of their game against Wake Forest, this Bears team did compete and they did make a game of it so they are dangerous. Baylor comes into this game averaging a very decent 36.3 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on a whopping 447.3 total yards of offense per game and 7.2 yards per play in those games. Connecticut's defense has played well this season and they have allowed only 7.3 points per game this season and have allowed 229.0 total yards of offense per game on 4.0 yards play in those games. On the ground is where I think Baylor could have some success in this one as they have averaged a whopping 242.3 rushing yards per game on the season and in those games have averaged 6.3 yards per carry. QB Robert Griffin leads the team in rushing with 288 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns which is impressive considering he passes as well as he throws. The Huskies defense has allowed opponents to rush for only 66.3 yards per game this season on 2.6 yards per carry but they have yet to face a double threat QB like Griffin which is where I think they will make some adjustments and allow themselves to pull away once they do. In the air, Griffin has completed 62.3% of his passes this season for 10.3 yards per pass attempts, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions (which is impressive even after playing against Wake Forest the INT machines). Connecticut's defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 56.4% of their pass attempts this season for 5.2 yards per pass attempt. Griffin has been sacked only 4 times this season, remarkable considering the state of the O-Line, and his mobility will be huge tonight against a Huskies defense that already has 9 sacks on the season. The Huskies also have 6 interceptions on the year but they have recovered only one fumble. In other words UConn has no trouble stopping teams that throw interceptions and allow a lot of pressure on their QBs. Well Baylor does neither and I think they will actually have their offense on the move but as to how long that will last, I'm not sure. The Bears have lost 4 fumbles this season and that could be a problem because they are a team not used to running the ball so many times per game and I have no doubts they will turn the ball over when this game matters most. With a nice little dose of running game combined with Griffin's ability to find a great group of receivers on the deep ball, the Huskies defense will probably struggle early in this game until they get things together and realize that if you contain Griffin, he really has nothing but his legs and his ability to throw downfield. He is still a bit raw. This is the biggest test for the UConn defense and although they have played well, the duo threat QB is going to be a challenge and I think the oddsmakers did a good job with this line. I like Baylor but not on a Friday night and not in this place.
The Connecticut Huskies are off to quite the start to the season as they are 3-0 SU with a very good chance of being 4-0 SU once this week is all said and done. I know a lot of you are not willing to back a Connecticut team that had all sorts of problems beating Temple a few weeks ago on the road but this game is not being played away from home it is being played in the very friendly home confines of Rentschler Field which will be packed 40 000 deep for this game no doubt about it. No the only lined game they have played at home this season was last weekend when they absolutely demolished Virgina in a 45-10 romp that probably has some Baylor backers worried if the defense is a no-show tonight. UConn is one of those teams with a big time home field advantage because this place actually gets really loud and the Huskies went 5-1 ATS here last season. They are also 13-4 ATS the last three seasons on this grass and you have to keep in mind that this is a team loaded with Senior and upperclassmen as they managed to return 17 of their starters this season. So far so good for this team but playing against a Big 12 opponent will be their first real big test and I don't think they should have too many problems. This game reminds me of the home game against Akron last season when the Huskies were favored by 15 points and ended up winning 44-10 or even last week as double digit favorites against Virginia. Connecticut comes into this game averaging a whopping 30.7 points per game this season and they have managed to that by also averaging 445.3 total yards of offense per game at 6.1 yards per play. The Baylor defense has looked stout but the opposition has been weak. The Bears have allowed 21.3 points per game this season and they have done that by also allowing 302.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.0 yards per play in those games which is not bad at all. On the ground is where this game will be won or lost. I say that because both teams can run the ball but can both teams stop the ball? UConn will probably be without RB Andre Dixon (last season's leading rusher) but I am not concerned because they haven't had him all season and have still managed to rush for 297.7 yards per game on an incredible 5.9 yards per carry. RB Donald Brown II already has 8 rushing touchdowns and 566 rushing yards in three games. Baylor's run defense has managed to allow only 95 rushing yards per game this season on only 2.5 yards per carry but never in the last five seasons has Baylor allowed anything less than 4.1 yards per carry in a season on average. In the air, QB Tyler Lorenzen needs to get better with his arm having completed 59.7% of his passes for 6.35 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 4 interceptions and 149 rushing yards so not bad. Baylor's secondary should have issues all night with all the concerns in the running game and they have allowed opponents this season to complete 63.6% of their passes for 5.8 yards per pass attempt. This is an aggressive defense that already has 12 sacks on the season but UConn's offensive line is tremendous and Lorenzen has been sacked only 2 times all season. Like I said before this is a very aggressive Baylor defense that has also forced 3 interceptions on the season, recovered 6 opponent fumbles and forced another just for good measure. Having said that, Baylor lacks the discipline needed to keep a game like this close as they average 7.7 penalties per game to Connecticut's 4.0 penalties per game. I think this defense is going to get a bit too excited at times and they will try to do too much to stop the running game. That should wear down the linebackers and the secondary and give Lorenzen a nice little chance to boost his passing touchdowns with guys downfield like Ellis Gaulden and Anthony Sherman who can both go deep and get open in a game like this. The key for the UConn offense in this game is to keep the mistakes to a minimum because they have all the weapons in the world to make this a blowout and once Baylor starts panicking and making mistakes, I don't think this game is going to last very long.
How can you not bet on the Baylor Bears after their showing last Friday right? Wrong. It's still Baylor and the mention of the Bears and ATS wins combined is very rare but this team has somewhat turned the corner and the onus is on them to perform here in the Big 12 vs. Big East series finale match of the week (assuming Louisville, well they did, and West Virginia won their games). The Bears have to save grace for the Big 12 to avoid going 0-3 SU this early week against a Conference that was supposed to be weakened this season. This is only the second time ever Connecticut is playing against a team from the Big 12 and their first try in 2002 went quite well as they managed a 37-20 win. Home Field advantage is going to be huge here for UConn because they are the better team, they are playing in front of their loud fans and they play a very similar style of football as the Baylor Bears only they have a much better coach. Todd Orlando has done a great job as the defensive coordinator for the Huskies and I think he can find a way to contain Griffin in this game and force him into mistakes. Baylor is only 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games which is a clear indication once again that covering spreads is foreign to them. They have covered only 2 of their last 9 road games while UConn is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six home games and probably one of the more dominating home teams in the Big East. I think Huskies make this ugly.
Trend of the Game: Connecticut is 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 non-conference games.
Connecticut 37, Baylor 14
Saturday, September 20
Troy Trojans +20 (25 Units)
***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Troy Trojans +20 (25 Units)
***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Troy Trojans have not been around lined games for all that long as it was only in the 2001 season that bettors began having the option to bet on them from week to week basis. Well they have gone 38-31-1 ATS since the beginning of that and I have to admit this has been a profitable team to follow over the years. The reason most handicappers won't back them is because they know nothing about them and that is a big time concern for lines this large because make no mistake about it, this is a very well coached team with loads of talent on the sidelines and I would not put it past them to actually win this game straight up. Sure you think I'm full of shit but I am dead serious and I just don't see why not. The Trojans are coming off an easy 65-0 win over I-AA Alcorn State in a non-lined game and in their first lined game of the season, the Trojans covered with easy -6 point favorites at Middle Tennessee in a 31-17 win. I know the stats are not good and Troy is only 1-13 SU lifetime versus teams ranked in the TOP 25 (Missouri in 2004 was their only win) but they have competed. Take a look at 2004 when they beat Missouri and went #18 LSU losing only 24-20. How about in 2006 when they went to #9 Florida State as +29 point underdogs and lost only 24-17? Or even last season when they went to #21 Arkansas and lost by only 20 as +23 point underdogs or when they went to #10 Georgia as +15 underdogs and lost 44-34. The win is coming against a huge opponent and this could be the time. Troy comes into this game averaging 48.0 points per game and they have managed to do that by also averaging 518.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.1 yards per play with good clock control. Ohio State's defense was somewhat exposed last week against the Trojans and they have now allowed 16.3 points per game this season and have managed to do that by allowing 225.3 total yards of offense per game and 4.1 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Troy has been very efficient rushing for 239.5 yards per game and they also have 5.6 yards per carry. This is a very good looking core of RB's (Maurice Greer is a top recruit and is averaging 10.4 yards per carry) and they could give Ohio State headaches as the Buckeyes have allowed 3.5 yards per carry this season on 99.3 rushing yards per game. In the air, QB Jaime Hampton has a lot to learn but he has completed 66.2% of his passes this season for 459 passing yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. Hampton is a quick moving QB who can avoid pressure by moving out of the pocket and he has taken only 3 sacks this season forcing a few of those interceptions. Ohio State's front line pressure has been non-existent as they have only 4 sacks in three games which could be a problem if they can't force Hampton into turnovers. The Buckeyes have allowed opposing QB's to complete 51.2% of their passes this season for 4.6 yards per pass attempt with 5 interceptions by their stout and opportunistic secondary. Having said that, I think the Trojans can win the battles in the middle because if Hampton has time he is going to stand firm in that pocket and hit one of his many speedy receivers on the fly. The main concern for this Troy team has been the 5 fumbles lost in two games as well as the 7 total fumbles in those two games. If you make mistakes like that against a team like Ohio State you are not going to come close to winning. Having said all of that, Ohio State has recovered only 2 fumbles in three games this season and like I said before, their defense does not have the look of the defense we saw the last two seasons that barely allowed 10 points per game. Ohio managed to score 14 points against the Buckeyes and the scary part about that is that Troy's offense is so much better than Ohio's so expect them to score in the 20's. As long as the offense can move the chains on a regular and consistent basis in this game, they will have a chance to pull off the impossible, something they have been trying to do since that infamous night where they knocked off #19 Missouri at home for the most historic win in program history. I love the Trojans as underdogs here because I like their running game, I like their coach and I think they can control the clock and keep Ohio State off the field.
The Ohio State Buckeyes know they are in a heap of trouble here. I was on them with my PLAY OF THE WEEK in Week 3 against USC and they were badly exposed in a 35-3. I hate to say this but which clowns came up with the idea of making a team +11 one week and -20 the next week. That is a complete 30 points swing that makes absolutely no sense and I was hoping to get this type of line for this game. Apart from their 43-0 win over Youngstown State to open the season, have you been impressed at all by what you have seen this Jim Tressel team do? Not me. I don't care what you tell me about this team, they have looked nothing more than vanilla from game to game and even though they are one of the most talented teams in the Country, scoring points continues to be a problem under Jim Tressel (30+ points per game the last three seasons but against really weak Big Ten opponents) and I just don't like the look of this team. The word out of Columbus is that RB Beanie Wells is not playing in this game as he will be rested for Big Ten play that starts next week when the Buckeyes host Minnesota. This is a team that very much resembles Appalachian State from a year ago, the very same team that walked into a sacred Big Ten house and pulled off a shocking upset. Ohio State is an impressive 43-1 SU since 1991 at home versus opponents from other Conferences and this is their first ever game versus a team from the Sun Belt Conference. Ohio State comes into this game averaging 24.0 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on 324.7 total yards of offense and only 4.7 yards per play. That's weak for any TOP 10 team I don't care who they have played. Troy's defense does bring back their top three tacklers and the team has allowed only 8.5 points per game this season and allowed only 202.0 total yards of offense per game on only 2.8 yards per play. I know the opposition is different this time around but don't tell me DC Jeremy Rowell doesn't have his groove on this season. On the ground, Ohio State will continue to struggle without Beanie Wells as they are down to averaging only 161.3 rushing yards per game this season on 4.1 yards per carry. Size could be an issue but the Trojans have a tough defensive line and they have managed to allow only 78.0 rushing yards per game this season and have given up only 2.1 yards per carry which means that even though we will probably see a lot of QB Terrelle Pryor in this game, this is a good contain group and they can force him to throw. Pryor and QB Todd Boeckman have combined to complete 65.2% of their passes this season and they have managed to do that on only 5.5 yards per pass attempt which is nowhere near good enough to win games by this many points. The Troy secondary lost Leodis McKelvin to the NFL draft and many thought they would suffer but they have battled and opponents have completed only 45.1% of their passes this season for 3.5 yards per pass attempt. I know the Buckeyes plan on running the ball in this game but they also have to throw and doing anything against this defense is going to cause problems, keep the game close and setup the potential huge upset. The Trojans have great pressure up front recording 5 sacks in two games and they have one of the most underrated secondaries in college football with 7 interceptions in two games. I have to also mention that Troy has forced 8 fumbles in those two games and they are not going to back down from coming after Ohio State all game. Like we saw in the USC game, if you pressure these guys on the Buckeyes they do make mistakes and as long as Troy can contain Brian Hartline in the middle of the field, they are going to come up with some huge plays in this game and almost everyone will know who the Troy Trojans defense is. Until Beanie Wells comes back healthy, this offense is nothing more than pedestrian and even with the addition of more playing time for Pryor, I really don't see that making all that much of a difference here. I expect Ohio State to struggle on the scoreboard and if for some reason they end up playing from behind like they have done in both their lined games this season, I don't think they will be as lucky as in the past and Troy will come in here and shock them. Just watch.
The public perception of this game is that Ohio State is going to bounce back large against a virtual newcomer in the world of college football betting but I don't agree with that theory. Reason for that being that Ohio State almost lost to Ohio prior to the USC game and I think people are going to start to realize that this team is not all that good and that big changes are needed in Columbus. Do you all remember Michigan losing to Appalachian State last season at home and then having the public all over them as -7 point favorites at home against Oregon the following game expecting a bounce back? Well they fell flat on their faces and so did the public in a 37-7 Michigan loss. How can you not like an underdog that has a very underrated defense, that has played against a lot of TOP 25 opponents over the years, that has come close to beating TOP 25 teams over the years and that is coached by Larry Blakeney? Troy has covered 9 of their last 11 road games and they are an impressive 6-1 ATS in their last seven games where they score 40 or more points the game before. Ohio State does have 'BOUNCE BACK' on their minds, that's for sure but I don't see them getting it done, I see this more as the demise of a team coming off two straight National Title Game appearances. I know it's crazy but Troy has what it takes to win this game straight up. Bad opponent for the Buckeyes.
Trend of the Game: Troy is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
Troy 24, Ohio State 22
Florida Gators -7.5 (5 Units)
The Florida Gators are going to be tested for the first time this season in this game as they head to Knoxville and take on Fulmer's Tennessee Volunteers. This is the beginning of the real SEC schedule play as things will only get tough from here on in if you play in the best Conference in all of college football. What I really like about Florida here is that being National Title contenders and all this game means everything to them and Urban Meyer has had a full week off to prepare for what he likes to call THE GAME OF THE YEAR so far (I have a feeling he will call every SEC game that this season). I know some cappers are concerned about betting on such a high spread when typically these inter-conference SEC games have seen much lower spreads in the past but you have to understand that Florida hates Tennessee and vice versa and there will be no letting up once they take the lead. The Gators walked into this place a few years ago (National Title season) and came out with a 21-20 win as -4.5 point favorites. However, in Tim Tebow's first year at the helms of this Gators team, Florida completely demolished Tennessee in 2007 by a score of 59-20 which had the Vols wondering if they belong. For those of you concerned that they can't win an SEC game on the road by more than a few points, how about their 20 point win over South Carolina last season or their 8 point win at Kentucky? Florida comes into this game ready for a fight. They average 41.0 points per game this season and they have managed to score those points on 375.5 total yards of offense and 6.4 yards per play in those games. That is not very Urban Meyer like and I think he has been saving some big plays for this game. The Tennessee defense has allowed 15.0 points per game on the season and in those games they have also allowed 281.5 total yards of offense per game and 4.2 yards per play which is not too bad. On the ground, I don't think we have seen the best of the Gators as they have rushed for 172.0 yards per game on the season for 5.3 yards per carry. Tebow and freshman RB Jeffrey Demps have led the team so far this season but I expect guys like Rainey and Moore to really get things going this week for the first time this season. Tennessee has allowed only 68.5 rushing yards per game this season on 2.4 yards per carry but this is the best rushing attack they have seen all year by far which should throw them off. In the air, QB Tim Tebow has completed 61.2% of his passes this season for 393 passing yards, 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdown and 0 interceptions which is pretty decent for a slow start. The Vols have allowed their opponents this season to complete 57.1% of their passes for 5.5 yards per pass attempt which is not bad at all but their pressure up front has not been all that great as they have only 2 sacks on the season and if they can't get pressure on this backfield, Tebow and company are going to torch them. Yes the defense has 7 interceptions already this season UCLA and UAB have two of the most useless QB's in college football and Tebow is not about to make mistakes passing the ball in this game. He has yet to throw an interception and has been sacked only 2 times this season. If you are going to beat this Gators team or come close to doing so at home or on the road, you better make sure you can get some takeaways because this offense won't punt the ball very much. Florida has not lost a single fumble in two games while Tennessee has yet to recover a fumble in either of the games they played this season. I think this game is going to come down to who takes penalties, when they take those penalties and how they take those penalties. Both teams have had problems in the past with penalties and things have not changed. I expect Tebow to establish a great ground attack in this game, taking control of the clock and then dropping a few deep bomb daggers in the collective Tennessee hearts.
The Tennessee Volunteers are going to be playing with a sense of urgency in this game but they are also going to be playing with a sense of fear. I say that because they know they got beat by this Florida team 59-20 last season (virtually unheard score in tight SEC games like that one) and they know that Florida has now beat them three straight seasons and the Gators are 3-0 ATS in those meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. We all saw how the Vols played in their season opening game against UCLA, the same UCLA team that got completely demolished a few weeks later and that has not looked good at all. The only game the Vols can really talk about this season is their 35-3 win over UAB as -33 point favorites last week. Unlike the Gators, the Vols have not had an entire week off to prepare for this game and even though they played a conservative second half last week, I still think Fulmer has some tricks up his sleeve here and I think he is going to take some big risks against the Gators. Tennessee has been a very good home underdog the last four seasons going 4-0 ATS including that spread cover against the Gators in 2006 but times have changed and this Vols team is not as good as the 2007 version. They say the team that can run the ball better will win the game when these two meet and just to let you know, Tennessee has averaged 13 rushing yards per game the last two season. The Vols come into this game averaging 29.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 457.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.1 yards per play in those games. Florida's defense has a few injuries to work with this week but they are coming off a bye week and they have allowed only 6.5 points per game this season and in those games managed to allow only 190.5 total yards of offense and 3.1 yards per play against those opponents. On the ground, Tennessee can't win without running the ball and they have rushed for 221.5 rushing yards this season on 5.9 yards per carry which is impressive. However, the problem is getting past that Florida defensive line that has allowed other team to rush for only 60.5 yards this season on 2.0 yards per carry. You would almost need a mobile QB who can really move to beat this team and the Vols really don't have that handy. In the air, QB Johnathan Crompton has completed only 52.1% of his passes for 429 passing yards, 5.9 yards per pass attempt, 2 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. He is nothing like the departed Erik Ainge and that is going to play a huge factor in this game if you ask me. I say that because he lacks the game sense that Ainge had and I don't know that he can handle the Florida pass rush that already has 7 sacks on the season in two games. The Gators have allowed opponents to complete 54.1% of their passes this season for only 4.3 yards per pass attempt and they have intercepted 4 passes already as a direct result of the pressure they manage to generate on a play by play basis. Florida has also recovered two fumbles on aggressive defensive play calling and with so much pressure coming from all sides, this defense can really make Crompton lose his mind which I see happening. The kid doesn't have the composure needed to win big SEC games like this so he normally relies on his ground game to do the dirty work and he steals a few late bombs in the game. The schedule doesn't get any easier for Tennessee because they have to travel to Auburn next week and that is probably another loss in the waiting, meaning this Fulmer team is going to start the season 1-3 SU. The general atmosphere around the team that beat Wisconsin in the Outback Bowl last season is that they don't stand a chance at a New Year's Day Bowl game this season and all these early season losses are probably going to affect the way they play down the stretch. I would normally take this Vols running attack and back them in SEC games but Florida's defense is too stout, too solid and just too damn good to allow the Vols to do much in this game.
Prolific SEC East type of game? Not quite. The Vols have their weakest team in a long time, they have already looked like shit and lost to UCLA on the road in their season opener and my feeling that Fulmer's time as head coach of this program is coming to an end. Florida on the other hand has to anticipate losing a game at some point this season so the most important games are the ones like this, the ones the BCS Computer is going to scan and see that they beat an SEC East foe by quite the large margin. These two teams have played some close games over the years but Florida is just that much better with Tebow and until he leaves this school, the spreads will continue to be this high and I will continue to back them. Florida has never been a good team to back in September as they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight September games but I do like the fact that they are 4-1 ATS in both their last five road games and their last five SEC games. Tennessee on the other hand has always played well at home, they have been very profitable at home against conference opponents but they are too badly outmatched in this game to keep it close. Much like last season's matchup, the Gators will grab the early lead, never look back and probably pour it on big time by the time we hit mid-second half. I like the Gators to win this game by at least two touchdowns.
Trend of the Game: Florida is 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games.
Florida 28, Tennessee 14
Wake Forest Deacons +4 (10 Units)
The Wake Forest Deacons continue to be disrespected by oddsmakers when it comes to inter-conference ACC Conference games like this one and I don't know about you guys but I am not missing a chance to cash in on these guys again. Wake Forest is the road team, they are the underdog but this is where they have made their money the last three seasons and you would have to be crazy not to bet on them in this spot. They are going to be coming off an bye week which means Jim Grobe has had even more time to prepare his guys for one hell of a physical war and the best part is the Deacons don't have to look forward to any other games because they get Navy at home next week and then another full week off to prepare for Clemson on home turf. WHAT A LIFE IT IS FOR WAKE FOREST! So we all know this is going to be a back and forth battle with the last possession probably determining the winner but that's the best way to have it. After going 5-0 ATS as a road underdog in 2006 (the year they finished 11-3 SU overall), Wake Forest had issues playing on the road last season as they went 0-2 ATS in road games where they were the underdog. They have enough guys returning this season to turn things back around in the right direction and this is where it starts. Wake Forest comes into this game averaging a very healthy 35.5 points per game this season and they have managed to do that by also averaging 362.0 total yards of offense and 4.7 yards per play. You got it, that's nothing compared to what this team has done in the past but I am not worried. On the ground, the Deacons come into this game averaging only 118.5 rushing yards per game on 3.2 yards per carry and I don't really see things getting better for them in this game as Florida State has been great against the run and they have allowed only 39.0 rushing yards per game this season on 1.2 yards per carry. Josh Adams is going to have to attack the weak spots with a lot more authority this week if he expects to get anything done against this defense and if they can gain some ground running the ball, expect the air attack to look good. QB Riley Skinner has completed 74.7% of his passes this season for 487 passing yards, 6.2 yards per pass attempt, 5 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions which is pretty damn impressive and which makes up for the lack of running game. Florida State has yet to face a real opponent so we don't know how their defense will react but so far they have allowed opponents to complete only 47.6% of their passes this season for 6.0 yards per pass attempt. The big concern with Wake Forest has been their offensive line because they have already allowed 5 sacks in two games and the Seminoles defensive line is very aggressive. The Noles already have 7 sacks on the season but I don't think they will get to Skinner as much as we think in this game for the simple reason that this is a real opponent for a change. What you have to admire about Skinner is that despite all the pressure he has seen this season he has not thrown an interception. Many cappers have raised concerns with Wake Forest and the fact that they fumble the ball a lot and yes that is another concern. The Deacons have lost 3 fumbles already this season against Baylor and Mississippi and you can consider that lucky seeing how they actually fumbled it 7 times already. Florida State has 2 fumble recoveries already this season but the Noles have always been guilty defensively of trying to strip the ball instead of making the tackle which is not a good things in games like this. You cannot let Wake Forest get anything going on offense or they will turn up the hear and burn you bad. I like that Grobe has had his guys well disciplined for years now and the trend has not changed this season as the team has taken only 4.5 penalties per game. As long as Deacons don't abandon the run game, Skinner will have chances to hit some open receivers in the slot and I really think the Deacons can catch FSU off-guard with a mix of screen/play action fakes. Wake Forest keeps this low-scoring with their defense and wins with a late touchdown.
The Florida State Seminoles have screwed me over in the world of sports betting way too many times and I have a feeling this is another one of those games where FSU backers will get the shaft. Bobby Bowden has to go, everyone knows it and until he does this team is not going to win games the way they used to win them. The Miami Hurricanes are one step ahead of the game because they already have a new coach in place and they will turn their program around in time to win big games like this one. Florida State on the other hand continues to keep the old man around and they have not had a winning ATS season since the 2003 season where they still went only 7-6 ATS that year. The Noles have since gone 5-7 ATS (2004), 6-6 ATS (2005), 6-7 ATS (2006) and 6-7 ATS (2007). With that kind of inconsistency I think it would be safe for most to jump on Wake Forest now seeing how the Noles are already off to a bad start having only played two non-lined games to start their season. Beating up on shitty opponents will only give you a false sense of authority on the field and big ACC games like this will expose the weak teams. The Noles have lost two straight games in this series and to be honest with you I don't know that this team has improved since those two games. Florida State comes into this game averaging a whopping and impressive 57.5 points per game this season but let it be known that both their opponents were I-AA opponents and that makes a huge difference. In those two games they have managed to get 529.5 total yards of offense per game and a nation leading 8.4 yards per play which is also impressive. Having said that, it's now back to reality where they have to face a Wake Forest defense that has played two very real games and allowed only 20.5 points per game this season and in those games allowed only 305.0 total yards of offense on a very respectable 4.8 yards per play (considering their opponents were from the SEC and the Big 12). On the ground, it looks like FSU finally has a running game as they average 243.5 rushing yards per game this season on 7.6 yards per carry. I don't see them having that kind of success against a Decons defense that is tough and aggressive and that has allowed only 100.5 rushing yards per game this season on 3.2 yards per carry. In the air, there is no chance you will find me trusting these inconsistent QB's on Florida State even though QB Christian Ponder is the new chief in town and he has completed 62.5% of his passes this season for 380 passing yards, 9.5 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions. So does this team finally have the QB star they have so badly looked for the last five or six seasons? I don't know. I can't wait to see how this kid does against a Wake Forest defense that has allowed opponents to complete only 55.6% of their passes this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. I have to remind you guys that this is a high risk high reward kind of defense that sometimes allows big plays because they are too aggressive. The Deacons have 4 interceptions in two games this season to go along with 2 sacks and a whopping 8 forced fumbles (recovering only 4 of them). I still have big concerns about this Florida State defensive line against a much tougher ACC opponent because they have already allowed 4 sacks in two games versus opponents from another galaxy and I just don't think that's acceptable if they are going to win the big games like this one. I know some of you are going to praise QB Christian Ponder for what he has done so far but let me bring you guys back to last year's game against Virginia Tech where Weatherford was injured early and instead of going with Xavier Lee they went with Ponder who went 8 for 18, 105 yards passing and 2 interceptions which lost them the game as VT came from behind and won the game big. I know this is almost a year later but Wake Forest knows they have to come after Ponder and come after him they will. This secondary will be ready for his errant passes (they will surely come) and he does not have enough experience to lead this team to a big win as home favorites like this. I like Wake Forest and their defense to school to sophomore.
This is a battle for the ages between two teams picked by all the pre-season experts to finish 1-2 in the race for the ACC Atlantic Division Title. Well so far so good for both teams and now they collide for what should be an epic football game, possibly at times a little bit boring. Nah how can this be boring when your season is virtually on the line, the loser knowing that a loss here and they probably don't play in a BCS Bowl Game like both programs expected before the season started. On one side you have one of the most exciting passers (Riley Skinner) in the ACC going up against one of the rawest QB's in the ACC this season who's only true conference action last season was a disaster. I think it's a mistake to go with Ponder in this game but I don't call the shots. Wake Forest is coming off a very surprising and rare ATS loss last week against Ole Miss so I think they will bounce back nicely to open ACC play and I like the fact that they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss the week before. They are also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road versus teams with winning home records. Florida State is always hyped up at this time of the year because they come off those big wins over I-AA schools who look clueless but truly Florida State is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a game where they allowed less than 20 points the game before and 0-5 ATS following their last five games where they won by 20+ points the game before. All signs point to a Wake Forest win here.
Trend of the Game: Wake Forest is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games versus teams with a winning home record.
Wake Forest 19, Florida State 16
Auburn Tigers +2.5 (10 Units)
The LSU Tigers have not lost a football game since their 50-48 overtime loss to Arkansas on November 23 of last season and the goal before the season started was to not lose another game until sometime in the next three of four years. Having said that, anyone who remembers following this team in 2007 knows that they came close to losing a lot more than just the two games against Arkansas and Kentucky (both in overtime). The Tigers come into this game 2-0 SU and 0-1 ATS in those games scoring 41 points in both games they played against Appalachian State and North Texas. Sure the two wins were impressive and sure the offense looks great but this is their first real test of the season and I don't know if they are "war-ready" as Auburn for this game having not played against an opponent who was capable of answering any kind of challenge imposed by the Tigers. Auburn has already been to war and back, making it out of a Sylvester Croom snore-fest last week and they are not going to shy away from coming after the Tigers here. I think it should be known that LSU is 0-3-1 ATS in the last four meetings between these teams and this is the one team the Tigers have struggled against since Les Miles walked into this place as head coach. Nobody else. This year's edition of the game should be no different. LSU comes into this game averaging a whopping 41.0 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on 442.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.9 yards per play. Auburn has had one of the most consistent defenses in college football for years now and they have allowed only 5.0 points per game this season. In those games they allowed opponents to gain only 213.7 total yards of offense per game and allowed only 3.2 yards per play. The LSU Tigers eat their bread and butter in the running game where so far this season they have managed 241.0 rushing yards per game on 7.1 yards per carry. RB Charles Scott is on a complete rampage running for 262 yards in two games with 4 touchdowns. Having said that, it's next to impossible to run the ball against Auburn's defense as they have allowed only 53.0 rushing yards per game on the season and have allowed only 1.8 yards per carry. That means if LSU is going to win this game they will have to do it through the passing game. In the air, QBs Andrew Hatch and Jarrett Lee will probably share time but I have not been impressed by either one of these two. As a unit the Tigers are completing only 55.0% of their passes on the season and that is for only 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Safe enough to say the passing game has not looked all that sharp and that is going to be a huge problem in this game if the Tigers can't run or pass. Auburn's defense has allowed opponents to complete only 55.8% of their passes this season for 4.3 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line of LSU has held so far and they have allowed only 1 sacks but Auburn is going to come after them from all sides as they have 8 sacks in their three games this season and the Tigers have also picked off three passes. This is a no holds barred defense that has a relentless attitude and that is why they have been so effective over the course of the last decade or so when it comes to defense. LSU has never been a team with problems holding onto the ball but they are going to feel the full wrath of Auburn's attack packages in this game and the Tigers should force enough turnovers to give their offense really good field position on several occasions. Auburn has actually forced 7 fumbles already this season and they have recovered three of those fumbles. What's going to happen in this intense game is that LSU will try as much as possible to keep things on the ground but it won't work and the home crowd is going to make it so loud that the defense will play out of their minds. When the Tigers decided to pass the ball, Auburn will create turnovers and they will make LSU a one dimentional team that can only run and not pass. So unless one of the two new QBs can have the game of his life and can have a coming out party that neither had against North Texas and Appalachian State, LSU is not going to win this game and they might even lose big. I really don't like this spot. Geaux somewhere else.
The Auburn Tigers looked like complete dog shit last week against Mississippi State but that is the beauty of college sports because now the public is fading them big time in a game that in no way shape or form resembles that against the Bulldogs. What I mean by that is that their performance last week could of been completely unrelated to what we are going to see from these guys the rest of the season. Mississippi State is a tough, rugged and annoying opponent to face and the Tigers pretty much ended up playing down to Croom's level, which is crap. Unlike their counterparts from Lousiana State University, the Auburn Tigers did not have a week off to prepare for this game but they did do LSU one better. They had a game they came close to losing which right away brought this team together and made them a lot stronger than they would have been had they blownout the Bulldogs in that game. Auburn is not as bad as they looked in their 3-2 (hahahaha) win last week and despite their 1-2 ATS record so far this season, I still think this team can contend for a National Title if the other teams around them fail and it all starts right here and right now against the defending National Champions who are getting a little bit too much respect in this game. Since the 2000 season, Auburn has been a home underdog only four times and they have gone 3-1 ATS in those games so going against them is not recommended. Auburn comes into this game averaging 21.3 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done on 367.0 total yards of offense per game and a so-so 5.0 yards per play. How the heck are they going to win with those numbers you ask? Offense is not everything in the SEC. LSU has played only two games and in those games they have allowed only 8.0 points per game. They have also allowed 219.0 total yards of offense per game this season on only 3.6 yards per play which is not all that good considering the two teams they have played against. As putrid as the offense has looked at times for Auburn, the ground attack has been outstanding as the Tigers have rushed for a whopping 204.7 rushing yards per game this season and they average 4.7 yards per carry in those games. RB Ben Tate has been on an absolute tear rushing for 278 yards already this season with 5.8 yards per carry and 1 touchdown. LSU's run defense has looked solid as a rock right now as they have allowed 48.0 rushing yards per game this season and in those games they have allowed only 2.1 yards per carry. I have to go back to who LSU has played against this season and those numbers become just that, numbers. I think Tate can effectively lead this offense to some short yardage third down opportunities which is exactly what this team needs. In the air, QB Chris Todd has not looked all that bad as he has completed 58.7% of his passes against real opponents (unlike LSU) for 472 passing yards, 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 1 interceptions. He is playing behind a very strong offensive line that has allowed only 3.0 sacks this season and Todd has been able to stay away from game changing turnovers that has haunted this team in the past. LSU has allowed opposing QB's to complete 48.7% of their passes this season for 4.5 yards per pass attempt which is pretty damn good but their pass rush is not as good as it used to be and they only have 3 sacks in two games against weak opposition. LSU's secondary has been able to pickoff only one pass and they will have to do a lot better than that if they have any hope of beating Auburn in this game. The Auburn Tigers were a complete mess in terms of holding onto the ball agaisnt Mississippi State last week and they have now lost 6 fumbles on the season because of that game but again I did not see an aggressive LSU defense from the past in their first two games and they have recovered a grand total of 0 fumbles this season. The only concern for me with Auburn has always been penalties in home games because they do tend to get a bit excited at times with this crowd going crazy. They have already taken a whopping 8.3 penalties per game this season and coach Tuberville really needs to keep these guys on a leash without really letting them tone things down. I think Auburn is going to struggle at times in this game but their defense is going to give them great field position to start drives and Ben Tate is going to score the winning touchdown sometime in the second half. I will take Todd and Tate over the inexperienced LSU quartberbacks and I really think Auburn gets revenge for last year's last second loss. This is a perfect spot for them and the matchup is actually pretty good.
I don't think anyone will forget the epic battle these two teams had just one year ago as they met in Baton Rouge where LSU managed to get by the Tigers 30-24 in a very close game that was 17-13 Auburn heading into the 4th quarter. It was also 24-23 Auburn with about 3:00 to go in the game until Matt Flynn marched all the way down the field and found WR Demetrius Byrd on a game winning touchdown pass with only :01 left on the clock. What could have been had they lost that game is quite unreal and you can bet your bottom dollar there would have been no National Title Game had they fallen in that one. REVENGE is the theme tonight for Auburn because now they have the home crowd behind them and none of these guys forgot about that morale killing loss. It wasn't just a loss, it was a loss with :01 to go when you had the road win against eventual National Champions LSU. I know most of you are not fans of trends but the home team in this series is 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings winning the game by an average of 9 points per game which does mean a lot here (seeing Auburn is the underdog). I don't know how many of you know this but LSU is 1-6 ATS in their last seven SEC Conference games and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games that follow a win of 20+ points the previous game. Auburn on the other hand is not the best team to bet on in September (historically) but the Tigers know they need this game and they have always played well against LSU. Tigers win this big.
Trend of the Game: LSU is 1-6 ATS in their last seven SEC Conference games.
Auburn 24, LSU 10
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
RECAP:
Kansas State -4
West Virginia -3
Connecticut -12
Troy +20 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Florida -7.5
Wake Forest +4
Auburn +2.5
:toast:
The LSU Tigers have not lost a football game since their 50-48 overtime loss to Arkansas on November 23 of last season and the goal before the season started was to not lose another game until sometime in the next three of four years. Having said that, anyone who remembers following this team in 2007 knows that they came close to losing a lot more than just the two games against Arkansas and Kentucky (both in overtime). The Tigers come into this game 2-0 SU and 0-1 ATS in those games scoring 41 points in both games they played against Appalachian State and North Texas. Sure the two wins were impressive and sure the offense looks great but this is their first real test of the season and I don't know if they are "war-ready" as Auburn for this game having not played against an opponent who was capable of answering any kind of challenge imposed by the Tigers. Auburn has already been to war and back, making it out of a Sylvester Croom snore-fest last week and they are not going to shy away from coming after the Tigers here. I think it should be known that LSU is 0-3-1 ATS in the last four meetings between these teams and this is the one team the Tigers have struggled against since Les Miles walked into this place as head coach. Nobody else. This year's edition of the game should be no different. LSU comes into this game averaging a whopping 41.0 points per game this season and they have managed to do that on 442.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.9 yards per play. Auburn has had one of the most consistent defenses in college football for years now and they have allowed only 5.0 points per game this season. In those games they allowed opponents to gain only 213.7 total yards of offense per game and allowed only 3.2 yards per play. The LSU Tigers eat their bread and butter in the running game where so far this season they have managed 241.0 rushing yards per game on 7.1 yards per carry. RB Charles Scott is on a complete rampage running for 262 yards in two games with 4 touchdowns. Having said that, it's next to impossible to run the ball against Auburn's defense as they have allowed only 53.0 rushing yards per game on the season and have allowed only 1.8 yards per carry. That means if LSU is going to win this game they will have to do it through the passing game. In the air, QBs Andrew Hatch and Jarrett Lee will probably share time but I have not been impressed by either one of these two. As a unit the Tigers are completing only 55.0% of their passes on the season and that is for only 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Safe enough to say the passing game has not looked all that sharp and that is going to be a huge problem in this game if the Tigers can't run or pass. Auburn's defense has allowed opponents to complete only 55.8% of their passes this season for 4.3 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line of LSU has held so far and they have allowed only 1 sacks but Auburn is going to come after them from all sides as they have 8 sacks in their three games this season and the Tigers have also picked off three passes. This is a no holds barred defense that has a relentless attitude and that is why they have been so effective over the course of the last decade or so when it comes to defense. LSU has never been a team with problems holding onto the ball but they are going to feel the full wrath of Auburn's attack packages in this game and the Tigers should force enough turnovers to give their offense really good field position on several occasions. Auburn has actually forced 7 fumbles already this season and they have recovered three of those fumbles. What's going to happen in this intense game is that LSU will try as much as possible to keep things on the ground but it won't work and the home crowd is going to make it so loud that the defense will play out of their minds. When the Tigers decided to pass the ball, Auburn will create turnovers and they will make LSU a one dimentional team that can only run and not pass. So unless one of the two new QBs can have the game of his life and can have a coming out party that neither had against North Texas and Appalachian State, LSU is not going to win this game and they might even lose big. I really don't like this spot. Geaux somewhere else.
The Auburn Tigers looked like complete dog shit last week against Mississippi State but that is the beauty of college sports because now the public is fading them big time in a game that in no way shape or form resembles that against the Bulldogs. What I mean by that is that their performance last week could of been completely unrelated to what we are going to see from these guys the rest of the season. Mississippi State is a tough, rugged and annoying opponent to face and the Tigers pretty much ended up playing down to Croom's level, which is crap. Unlike their counterparts from Lousiana State University, the Auburn Tigers did not have a week off to prepare for this game but they did do LSU one better. They had a game they came close to losing which right away brought this team together and made them a lot stronger than they would have been had they blownout the Bulldogs in that game. Auburn is not as bad as they looked in their 3-2 (hahahaha) win last week and despite their 1-2 ATS record so far this season, I still think this team can contend for a National Title if the other teams around them fail and it all starts right here and right now against the defending National Champions who are getting a little bit too much respect in this game. Since the 2000 season, Auburn has been a home underdog only four times and they have gone 3-1 ATS in those games so going against them is not recommended. Auburn comes into this game averaging 21.3 points per game this season and they have managed to get that done on 367.0 total yards of offense per game and a so-so 5.0 yards per play. How the heck are they going to win with those numbers you ask? Offense is not everything in the SEC. LSU has played only two games and in those games they have allowed only 8.0 points per game. They have also allowed 219.0 total yards of offense per game this season on only 3.6 yards per play which is not all that good considering the two teams they have played against. As putrid as the offense has looked at times for Auburn, the ground attack has been outstanding as the Tigers have rushed for a whopping 204.7 rushing yards per game this season and they average 4.7 yards per carry in those games. RB Ben Tate has been on an absolute tear rushing for 278 yards already this season with 5.8 yards per carry and 1 touchdown. LSU's run defense has looked solid as a rock right now as they have allowed 48.0 rushing yards per game this season and in those games they have allowed only 2.1 yards per carry. I have to go back to who LSU has played against this season and those numbers become just that, numbers. I think Tate can effectively lead this offense to some short yardage third down opportunities which is exactly what this team needs. In the air, QB Chris Todd has not looked all that bad as he has completed 58.7% of his passes against real opponents (unlike LSU) for 472 passing yards, 6.3 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 1 interceptions. He is playing behind a very strong offensive line that has allowed only 3.0 sacks this season and Todd has been able to stay away from game changing turnovers that has haunted this team in the past. LSU has allowed opposing QB's to complete 48.7% of their passes this season for 4.5 yards per pass attempt which is pretty damn good but their pass rush is not as good as it used to be and they only have 3 sacks in two games against weak opposition. LSU's secondary has been able to pickoff only one pass and they will have to do a lot better than that if they have any hope of beating Auburn in this game. The Auburn Tigers were a complete mess in terms of holding onto the ball agaisnt Mississippi State last week and they have now lost 6 fumbles on the season because of that game but again I did not see an aggressive LSU defense from the past in their first two games and they have recovered a grand total of 0 fumbles this season. The only concern for me with Auburn has always been penalties in home games because they do tend to get a bit excited at times with this crowd going crazy. They have already taken a whopping 8.3 penalties per game this season and coach Tuberville really needs to keep these guys on a leash without really letting them tone things down. I think Auburn is going to struggle at times in this game but their defense is going to give them great field position to start drives and Ben Tate is going to score the winning touchdown sometime in the second half. I will take Todd and Tate over the inexperienced LSU quartberbacks and I really think Auburn gets revenge for last year's last second loss. This is a perfect spot for them and the matchup is actually pretty good.
I don't think anyone will forget the epic battle these two teams had just one year ago as they met in Baton Rouge where LSU managed to get by the Tigers 30-24 in a very close game that was 17-13 Auburn heading into the 4th quarter. It was also 24-23 Auburn with about 3:00 to go in the game until Matt Flynn marched all the way down the field and found WR Demetrius Byrd on a game winning touchdown pass with only :01 left on the clock. What could have been had they lost that game is quite unreal and you can bet your bottom dollar there would have been no National Title Game had they fallen in that one. REVENGE is the theme tonight for Auburn because now they have the home crowd behind them and none of these guys forgot about that morale killing loss. It wasn't just a loss, it was a loss with :01 to go when you had the road win against eventual National Champions LSU. I know most of you are not fans of trends but the home team in this series is 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings winning the game by an average of 9 points per game which does mean a lot here (seeing Auburn is the underdog). I don't know how many of you know this but LSU is 1-6 ATS in their last seven SEC Conference games and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games that follow a win of 20+ points the previous game. Auburn on the other hand is not the best team to bet on in September (historically) but the Tigers know they need this game and they have always played well against LSU. Tigers win this big.
Trend of the Game: LSU is 1-6 ATS in their last seven SEC Conference games.
Auburn 24, LSU 10
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
RECAP:
Kansas State -4
West Virginia -3
Connecticut -12
Troy +20 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Florida -7.5
Wake Forest +4
Auburn +2.5
:toast:
ope:
