Mint production off 70%= sign of a depression !

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Rx God
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Production expected to total 3 billion coins in 2009, was 10 billion in 2008.

This is exactly what happened during the Great Depression. Nearly no coins were made 1931-1933. This is not exactly a great sign !
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Economy
<!-- END CLASS="SLUG" -->Mint To Press Fewer Coins As Economy Slows

by Jeff Brady
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Jeff Brady/ NPR
For all coins but pennies, the metal arrives at the Denver Mint on huge spools that are fed into a machine that punches out coins like a cookie cutter. Pennies come to the mint pre-cut.



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Jeff Brady/ NPR
Denver Mint press operator Chris Wright closely inspects a Guam quarter.



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<!-- END INSET COLUMN --><!-- START STORY CONTENT -->All Things Considered, May 11, 2009 · The Federal Reserve was busy last year pumping $700 billion into the U.S. economy — expanding the country's money supply by nearly 10 percent. But that doesn't mean there are a lot more dollar bills circulating. In fact production statistics at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing have remained stable. And coin production has dropped precipitously.
The U.S. Mint will make 3 billion coins in 2009 — a 70 percent decline from the 10 billion produced in 2008. It will be the smallest run in 50 years, and the retail economy is to blame.
"The Mint's mission is primarily to make coins to fulfill the demands of commerce," says Ed Moy, director of the Mint. "The demands of commerce haven't been doing too well the past six months."
Moy says there's something else going on, too — it appears more people are cashing in the coins they've saved at those counting machines near the grocery checkout counter.
"So in addition to low economic activity, there's an increased number of coins coming back into the banking system, which means that the banks need less coins from the Mint," says Moy.
Collectors are excited about the production slowdown, since scarcity boosts a coin's value — a 50-cent roll of Lincoln Bicentennial pennies is selling on eBay for up to $10.
Coin production is just about evenly split between mints in Philadelphia and Denver. Moy says no workers will be laid off. Instead they'll catch up on routine maintenance that has been delayed and undergo extra training. Laying off such specialized workers wouldn't make sense, he says, because they'll be needed again when the economy improves.
That decision won't cost taxpayers a dime, as the U.S. Mint funds its own operations through sales of collectible and bullion coins. Last year it made a $750 million profit for the U.S. Treasury.
 

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who uses coins anymore? can't even use them in slot machines

I'm guessing the evolution of the paperless society is impacting the use of coins
 

Rx God
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Not by 70% in one year. They've been punching out 10 billion or so for decades. Now only 3 billion. People are digging into their piggy banks for change. This is similar to the Depression, when new coins were not needed for years. Of course those coins also had a lot more buying power then, two quarters would have been probably a good hours' pay, then. Now 2 quarters wont buy a newspaper, cup of coffee, etc. Even pennies aren't being produced in much quantity, they are finding their way back into circulation.
 

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well, there are some good arguments about being in an extended economic retraction, but I don't believe that this is one of them.

just my opinion
 

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If you can rolls of the "bicentennial" pennies (2009) from your bank, they sell for $10 on ebay. Only some 600 million pieces made, instead of the normal 5 billion or so. The bicentennial is of Lincoln's birth in 1809, there will be 4 different reverses used in 2009, the first is of a log cabin, and isn't making it to circulation readily, thus the premium. Same thing will likely happen for the other 3 reverses for 2009.

These aren't really rare, but you can make quick money on them... if you can get them in quantity.
 

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its up to us to read the writing on the wall; the mass media will deceive us...
make those damn coins!!!
:think2:
 

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Maybe due to the state quarters are comming to a end and who wants the new penny. I thought they were going to do away with the penny and now they are making a few different styles. Penny much like a peso you can do anything with a hand full of them. I guess I am a cheap bastard because I always pick them up off the ground and I sure have been finding a bunch of them latly my wife makes fun of me.
 

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Deflation would be a great way to save the economy. It would reward people for saving, rather than wasting
 

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Maybe due to the state quarters are comming to a end and who wants the new penny. I thought they were going to do away with the penny and now they are making a few different styles. Penny much like a peso you can do anything with a hand full of them. I guess I am a cheap bastard because I always pick them up off the ground and I sure have been finding a bunch of them latly my wife makes fun of me.

I could see a reduced need for quarters, as people won't be hoarding them by the roll/bag as the state/ territory program ends. The new pennies should be hoarded in great quantity though. The penny has to end fairly soon, all it really would take is a prolonged increase in the price of zinc. I think they kept it around for 2009 to make the 100th anniversary of Lincoln on the cent, it could go any year now. The half cent was eliminated in 1857, and that was probably equivelant to at least a modern dime, in terms of what it would buy back then. It is just a matter of time !

The nickel is on shaky ground also.... if copper or nickel rise in price, they recently ( about 2 years ago) had 10 cents worth of metal in them, tough to manufacture at a loss on each piece.

People are just using what they have, not filling up 5 gallon jugs with their change anymore, so demand for new coins is down....because the economy is bad, same as back in the early 30's.
 

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Deflation would be a great way to save the economy. It would reward people for saving, rather than wasting


What happens if you have a fixed rate mortgage of say $2,000/ month, and deflation hits hard.... you make less, how do you pay that bill ?

Deflation has a lot of evils that go along with it.
 

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What happens if you have a fixed rate mortgage of say $2,000/ month, and deflation hits hard.... you make less, how do you pay that bill ?

You pay that bill with your savings or liquify other investments

If you haven't been saving, you really couldn't afford a $2k mortgage

If you don't have diverse investments you are always at risk for being hit hard whether things inflate, deflate or remain stable

The biggest evil that comes from deflation is that people who are livinge beyond their means cannot continue to do so
 

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who uses coins anymore? can't even use them in slot machines

I'm guessing the evolution of the paperless society is impacting the use of coins

Exactly, someone asked me if I had change for a 20 and I said 20 is change baby
 

Rx God
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You pay that bill with your savings or liquify other investments

If you haven't been saving, you really couldn't afford a $2k mortgage

If you don't have diverse investments you are always at risk for being hit hard whether things inflate, deflate or remain stable

The biggest evil that comes from deflation is that people who are livinge beyond their means cannot continue to do so


I somewhat disagree, Tom.

I believe many recent younger home buyers barely qualify, and lack diverse investment portfolios. Hopefully they don't have ARM's, likely they needed to stretch, even borrow from family for the down payment, and these folks are on a very tight budget.

Deflation is very bad, if you make, say 60k, are struggling to pay your mortgage, you're kinda fucked when you start making 40k in deflationary times...

I think you go into the loan expecting inflation, then 10+ years later the mortgage is less of a burden, 20+ years later, it should be nearer to nothing !

Paying back later with deflated dollars ( via inflation) is the expectation, and is necessary to the market... or you'll get foreclosures.

Hyper-inflation is great if you owe $ at a fixed rate
 

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the great depression was a deflationary environment and it wasnt a bad time for those who had jobs and we not invested in the stock market bc the cost of living actually came down....

hyperinflation is the worst IMO (contrary to what the cronies on cnbc say b/c they dont think its possible) b/c unless you have hard assets everyone is fu-ked...too much paper money chasing to few goods...

a person like myself would flourish in a deflationary environment b/c i have savings and a stable job (not that i make big money) and a side business that generates cash for me...people like myself will get slaughtered when inflation goes crazy in this country down the road unless you start taking necessary measures now...personally i would love nothing more than severe deflation and contraction in money supply...id live like a king...

to this day i dont understand why everyone thinks deflation is so bad and inflation is good...i hear it all the time on cnbc...
 

Rx God
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the great depression was a deflationary environment and it wasnt a bad time for those who had jobs and we not invested in the stock market bc the cost of living actually came down....

hyperinflation is the worst IMO (contrary to what the cronies on cnbc say b/c they dont think its possible) b/c unless you have hard assets everyone is fu-ked...too much paper money chasing to few goods...

a person like myself would flourish in a deflationary environment b/c i have savings and a stable job (not that i make big money) and a side business that generates cash for me...people like myself will get slaughtered when inflation goes crazy in this country down the road unless you start taking necessary measures now...personally i would love nothing more than severe deflation and contraction in money supply...id live like a king...



I can't really see severe deflation occuring with fiat (paper) money being the norm these days, inflation seems more likely, IMO. Inflation occured even between say 1825 and 1925, still had gold and silver coinage primarily, and papermoney redeemable for metal in 1925 ( gold certificates, and silver certicate notes, and much higher than $100 bills).

Now I think the chap in 1925 was better off than his compatriot in 1825, but you can't compare gasoline prices from 100 years' previous, I don't think they even used gas in 1825 for anything ! Compare maybe the price of a bushel of corn ( or something common). I'd bet it cost a lot more in 1925 than in 1825 ? Yet the guy 100 years later lived better.... until maybe when deflation hit in the early1930's ?

I don't think we wont deflation nor hyperinflation ( never has hit the USA)....a stable currency is more desired, with maybe some moderate inflation ?

JMO





to this day i dont understand why everyone thinks deflation is so bad and inflation is good...i hear it all the time on cnbc...

Explained above.
 

Rx God
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I think deflation happened in the 1870's USA, after the "Civil War" years, but I'm going from memory of history on that.
 

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Doug, if you need to borrow from family just to make the down payment, you can't afford to buy a house

If you can barely make the mortgage payments, you are spending well beyond your means
 

Rx God
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Doug, if you need to borrow from family just to make the down payment, you can't afford to buy a house

If you can barely make the mortgage payments, you are spending well beyond your means

I fully agree, but also think most buyers are exactly in that situation, and buying too much house.

My stepdaughter is a good example :

makes about 50k, fiance is fucked with a kid and child support won't contribute much, if anything.

205k home, about 20k down ( I think), about a year ago,she's living on the edge to pay that mortgage. a 125k condo would have been more appropriate. She wouldn't likely get that loan today. I wouldn't finance a new car for her.... if I was a car dealer. She's way over-extended.

lots of people in that boat.
 

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