First of all I'm glad the game times are changed, got screwed working last week and I gotta this weekend.
The similarities of this years playoffs and 2012 are uncanny, the more you look at them, the more freaky it becomes..just for entertainment.
There really isn't too many reliable trends for this week's games so we'll reverse the polarity and go with the systems I've built for just these types of situations...1st the few trends that have proven themselves over time only have applications to the Patriots game(go figure)...
**Since 1978 divisional round favorites are 18-0 su and 14-4 ats if they lost last years conference championship game su
**since 1986 home teams in thier 1st playoff game are 21-9-1 ats if they lost su as a favorite in last years playoffs
**since 2003 the dogs overall love to cover in the divisional round, especially in the afc, going 17-8 ats with 4 of the 8 failures coming to teams who happened to be the dog in....yep....New England.
As soon as the regular season ended the math had New England facing the Giants and for a while it looked like that would be the case, but, no dice.
The 20 point system.
This year marked only the second time in 17 years that no team in the league reached a numerical total of at least 20pts, all but assuring them a spot in the superbowl.
(I'm sure by now everyone remembers the 20pt system)
+3 for su wins and holding opp under 14
+2 for su wins and allowing opp over 30
-3 for su losses and allowing opp over 30
-2 for su losses and holding opp under 14
This years #'s
Ny giants +18
New England +12
Kansas city +9
Houston +6
Oakland +6
Atlanta +5
Pittsburgh +3
Dallas +1
Seattle +1
Green bay 0
Detroit -1
Miami -3
The only other time no team reached 20pts was 2014 and seattle was the highest rated team at +18, the reached the bowl, threw a pass from the 1 yard line against New England and the rest is history. I made the mistake of assuming the highest rated team this year would go...."assuming "...never a good idea.
So now I gotta go to the created systems...anybody who says,"backfitting" is a bogus deal and can't possibly hold water is wrong when it's creations do their job again and again...(it's the only way to learn from history)...trial and error.
Earlier this year I said there is a good chance of seeing who will be in the playoffs and go to the bowl as early as week 4 of the reg season ends, I won't bore anyone by relisting the 6 early indicators that teams must fit,(it can be looked up easy enough by visiting my past early posts), but the last 11 Super Bowl winners all had these stats in common.
9 of the last 11 matched all six, and 2 matched 5 of the 6.
Here's where the mind twists...of every team in the nfl this year only 6 teams filled the bill, 4 teams met all 6 requirements and 2 met 5 of the 6.
These teams are...meeting all 6...
Dallas
Kansas City
New England
Pittsburgh
meeting 5 of the 6....
Green Bay
Seattle
Go figure 6 of the last 8 teams standing.
That still leaves everything up to guesswork...So let's guess...2 teams remaining don't meet the early indication of going all the way..Atlanta and Houston...
I'd say there's a real good chance Houston gets eliminated immediately this weekend and Atlanta has a good chance of getting past this weekend given being at home, rested, healthy and facing a team who's just not the same team they were the last few years.
The pit/kc game is up for grabs, it's not even clear who is going to be favored by game time.
As mentioned earlier the dog likes covering in the div round...
Houston...not much of a chance
Seattle...possible, but I believe they're going to find an offensive juggernaut this week in Atlanta
Green Bay...possible, but a well balanced, rested dallas with a good memory may just give them more than they can handle coming off a big win..experience vs the rookie tandem of dak and zeke..either it proves too big for the rookies or they just don't know about losing big games so it won't mean anything to them to play the same game they played all year...I believe the latter will occur
Gotta go home teams once again this weekend straight down the line..
Atlanta and over
New England and over(ne goes over by themselves)
Dallas and over
Kansas City and (unsure)
Gl this weekend whatever way you go
GAME.
The similarities of this years playoffs and 2012 are uncanny, the more you look at them, the more freaky it becomes..just for entertainment.
There really isn't too many reliable trends for this week's games so we'll reverse the polarity and go with the systems I've built for just these types of situations...1st the few trends that have proven themselves over time only have applications to the Patriots game(go figure)...
**Since 1978 divisional round favorites are 18-0 su and 14-4 ats if they lost last years conference championship game su
**since 1986 home teams in thier 1st playoff game are 21-9-1 ats if they lost su as a favorite in last years playoffs
**since 2003 the dogs overall love to cover in the divisional round, especially in the afc, going 17-8 ats with 4 of the 8 failures coming to teams who happened to be the dog in....yep....New England.
As soon as the regular season ended the math had New England facing the Giants and for a while it looked like that would be the case, but, no dice.
The 20 point system.
This year marked only the second time in 17 years that no team in the league reached a numerical total of at least 20pts, all but assuring them a spot in the superbowl.
(I'm sure by now everyone remembers the 20pt system)
+3 for su wins and holding opp under 14
+2 for su wins and allowing opp over 30
-3 for su losses and allowing opp over 30
-2 for su losses and holding opp under 14
This years #'s
Ny giants +18
New England +12
Kansas city +9
Houston +6
Oakland +6
Atlanta +5
Pittsburgh +3
Dallas +1
Seattle +1
Green bay 0
Detroit -1
Miami -3
The only other time no team reached 20pts was 2014 and seattle was the highest rated team at +18, the reached the bowl, threw a pass from the 1 yard line against New England and the rest is history. I made the mistake of assuming the highest rated team this year would go...."assuming "...never a good idea.
So now I gotta go to the created systems...anybody who says,"backfitting" is a bogus deal and can't possibly hold water is wrong when it's creations do their job again and again...(it's the only way to learn from history)...trial and error.
Earlier this year I said there is a good chance of seeing who will be in the playoffs and go to the bowl as early as week 4 of the reg season ends, I won't bore anyone by relisting the 6 early indicators that teams must fit,(it can be looked up easy enough by visiting my past early posts), but the last 11 Super Bowl winners all had these stats in common.
9 of the last 11 matched all six, and 2 matched 5 of the 6.
Here's where the mind twists...of every team in the nfl this year only 6 teams filled the bill, 4 teams met all 6 requirements and 2 met 5 of the 6.
These teams are...meeting all 6...
Dallas
Kansas City
New England
Pittsburgh
meeting 5 of the 6....
Green Bay
Seattle
Go figure 6 of the last 8 teams standing.
That still leaves everything up to guesswork...So let's guess...2 teams remaining don't meet the early indication of going all the way..Atlanta and Houston...
I'd say there's a real good chance Houston gets eliminated immediately this weekend and Atlanta has a good chance of getting past this weekend given being at home, rested, healthy and facing a team who's just not the same team they were the last few years.
The pit/kc game is up for grabs, it's not even clear who is going to be favored by game time.
As mentioned earlier the dog likes covering in the div round...
Houston...not much of a chance
Seattle...possible, but I believe they're going to find an offensive juggernaut this week in Atlanta
Green Bay...possible, but a well balanced, rested dallas with a good memory may just give them more than they can handle coming off a big win..experience vs the rookie tandem of dak and zeke..either it proves too big for the rookies or they just don't know about losing big games so it won't mean anything to them to play the same game they played all year...I believe the latter will occur
Gotta go home teams once again this weekend straight down the line..
Atlanta and over
New England and over(ne goes over by themselves)
Dallas and over
Kansas City and (unsure)
Gl this weekend whatever way you go
GAME.
