Mil/Pitt Over 9: Thoughts

LeroyJenkins+ · Aug 23, 2008

Something seems a little fishy about this o/u set at 9.

Gorzelanny has been shelled by Mil in 2 starts this year (19 hits in 9 IP) and his road BAA is .320.

Suppan, although better in August, has been a BP type pitcher this year, was hit hard in his one start vs. Pit (.357 BAA) and has a high BAA and WHIP at home.

Seems like it should be set around 10 -110. Trap?

Any thoughts are appreciated.

Leroy

FairWarning · Aug 23, 2008

I'll tag along.

FairWarning · Aug 23, 2008

5-Dimes has over 10 +125. Something to think about. I played it.

fletchisrhsm · Aug 23, 2008

Leroy Jenkins said:
Gorzelanny has been shelled by Mil in 2 starts this year (19 hits in 9 IP) and his road BAA is .320.

Baseball has a way of evening itself out, trends dont last forever and in this case you dont even have your facts straight. Sure a guy coming out of AAA is going to get light up, so it has to go OVER right? The type of thinking is really square and alrthough i think it has a chance to go over, the oddsmakers i assume have already set the line accordingly. Gorzelanny has faced the Brewers twice this year, yes ... but besides the 4 and 2/3 and 7 ER's that got him sent down Gorzo has bene pretty good against the Brewers in his career just as he was on my 22 this year (his only other start) where he went 5 innings and gave up 2 ER's and got the win 8-4. I dotn want to sound like a dick, but you have to be accurate eith this kind of stuff, because people are playing with money. BL either way on your wager.

LeroyJenkins+ · Aug 23, 2008

fletchisrhsm said:
Baseball has a way of evening itself out, trends dont last forever and in this case you dont even have your facts straight. Sure a guy coming out of AAA is going to get light up, so it has to go OVER right? The type of thinking is really square and alrthough i think it has a chance to go over, the oddsmakers i assume have already set the line accordingly. Gorzelanny has faced the Brewers twice this year, yes ... but besides the 4 and 2/3 and 7 ER's that got him sent down Gorzo has bene pretty good against the Brewers in his career just as he was on my 22 this year (his only other start) where he went 5 innings and gave up 2 ER's and got the win 8-4. I dotn want to sound like a dick, but you have to be accurate eith this kind of stuff, because people are playing with money. BL either way on your wager.

Fletch, you are somewhat making my point. The small sample statistics point to the over, but vegas set it at 9 -120. I am scared away from this line due to the exact resoning you pointed out. If the o/u would have opened at 10, it would have not caught my attention. The fact that it opened considerably lower runs me off and raises a red flag. Thats why I was interested in feedback. I have no action on this game.

And you did sound like a dick. Good luck on your action tonight.