Feeling really good after a 4-1 performance last week. The MSU game was a disaster and PSU bailed me out late but I'll take 4 out of 5 every day of the week and twice on Sunday. I'll like the way the lines are looking this week and should have my picks and write-ups posted within the next day or two.
9/27 (3-3)
Northwestern (+8.5) @ Iowa* WIN
Michigan State (-8.5) @ Indiana* WIN
Minnesota @ Ohio State (-17.5) LOSS
Wisconsin (-6.5) @ Michigan* LOSS
Purdue (0) @ Notre Dame LOSS
Illinois (+16) @ Penn State WIN
9/27: 3-3
Best Bets: 2-1
10/4
Indiana @ Minnesota (-7) WIN
Iowa (+8) @ Michigan State WIN
Penn State (-13.5) @ Purdue* WIN
Illinois (+3) @ Michigan WIN
Ohio State (-2) @ Wisconsin* WIN
10/4: 5-0
Best Bets: 2-0
10/11
Toledo @ Michigan (-16.5) LOSS
Iowa (-5.5) @ Indiana* WIN
Minnesota @ Illinois (-13)* LOSS
Michigan State @ Northwestern (+2) LOSS
Purdue (+19) @ Ohio State WIN
Penn State (-5.5) @ Wisconsin WIN
10/11: 3-3
Best Bets: 1-1
10/18
Purdue @ Northwestern* (-4) WIN
Wisconsin @ Iowa* (-3.5) WIN
Ohio State @ Michigan State (+4) LOSS
Michigan @ Penn State (-23.5)* WIN
Indiana @ Illinois (-15.5) WIN
10/18: 4-1
Best Bets: 2-0
* = Best Bet
Northwestern (+8.5) @ Iowa* WIN
Michigan State (-8.5) @ Indiana* WIN
Minnesota @ Ohio State (-17.5) LOSS
Wisconsin (-6.5) @ Michigan* LOSS
Purdue (0) @ Notre Dame LOSS
Illinois (+16) @ Penn State WIN
9/27: 3-3
Best Bets: 2-1
10/4
Indiana @ Minnesota (-7) WIN
Iowa (+8) @ Michigan State WIN
Penn State (-13.5) @ Purdue* WIN
Illinois (+3) @ Michigan WIN
Ohio State (-2) @ Wisconsin* WIN
10/4: 5-0
Best Bets: 2-0
10/11
Toledo @ Michigan (-16.5) LOSS
Iowa (-5.5) @ Indiana* WIN
Minnesota @ Illinois (-13)* LOSS
Michigan State @ Northwestern (+2) LOSS
Purdue (+19) @ Ohio State WIN
Penn State (-5.5) @ Wisconsin WIN
10/11: 3-3
Best Bets: 1-1
10/18
Purdue @ Northwestern* (-4) WIN
Wisconsin @ Iowa* (-3.5) WIN
Ohio State @ Michigan State (+4) LOSS
Michigan @ Penn State (-23.5)* WIN
Indiana @ Illinois (-15.5) WIN
10/18: 4-1
Best Bets: 2-0
* = Best Bet
Sorry for the delay getting my picks up this week. Mid-Terms had me swamped all week. Glad to have those in the rear-view mirror and good to have this slate of games coming up! I feel very good about this card!
Illinois (-3) @ Wisconsin
BEST BET
I fully understand that this game is being played in Madison. You can throw all the stats at me you want about how good Wisconsin has been at home. I've seen them all, I understand them all. However, it's important to understand that this is not the same Wisconsin team we've been seeing for years.... far from it actually. The only stat that really matters is that they're 0-4 in the conference this year and 0-2 in the conference at home this year.
Brett Bielema made the change at QB from Allan Evridge to Dustin Sherer last week. It made little difference as the Badgers got drummed by Iowa. I think Shonn Greene still may be running. Things seem to get worse every week for the Badgers. It all started with that brutal second half in the big house to start the Big Ten season. They followed that up with a heartbreaking loss at home against Ohio State. Since that 4th quarter loss they've gotten destroyed two weeks in a row against Penn State and Iowa.
It doesn't get any easier for the Badgers this week with Illinois coming in to town. Illinois is probably the second most talented team in the conference and it appears that they finally feel like playing now. They looked lacksidasical much of the first half of the season, but the loss to Minnesota appears to have woken them up. Coach Zook challenged his guys and they responded with a 55-13 drumming of Indiana. Granted, Indiana has absolutely nothing going for them right now, but Illinois has to beat the team on their schedule. The Illini offense appears to be hitting on all cylinders right now. Juice Williams has played as well as any QB in the Big Ten since conference play started. Arrelious Benn is hands down the most dangerous WR in the confernce and true Freshman running back Jason Ford emerged last week with 172 rushing yards and 3 TD to compliment Daniel Dufrene. Throw in Jeff Cumberland, Will Judson, and Michael Hoomanawanuai and the Illini offense has too many weapons for the Badgers to handle.
Ignore the ancient history with this pick and focus on the two team that will be actually playing this Saturday. Illinois is focused on a New Year's Day bowl and they need this game to get there. Nothing has gone right for Wisconsin all year, and the team has layed down the last two weeks. There's no reason to expect any more effor this week. Take the Illini -3 and run with it all the way to the bank!
Minnesota (+1) @ Purdue
According to my book, the line has since moved 3 points in Purdue's favor. I apologize for not getting this pick up sooner. Either way, I think Minnesota is still the play.
People seem to think that Purdue has one great effort left in their tank. I'm sorry, but I don't think this is the case. I watched the entire Northwestern-Purdue game last week and the Boilermakers didn't show me anything to make me think that they can beat Purdue.
Kory Sheets is a heck of a college football player but he isn't enough to win Purdue this football game. Especially, when you look at the comments he made this week, bashing Painter and saying he can't do it all by himself. Very classless. Tiller called him out for it in the media, and rightfully so, but I wouldn't be shocked to see the big uglies up front "miss" a block or two this so Sheets gets his bell rung. It sounds like a very tense locker room to me. Things have only gotten worse each week for Purdue, and if they lose this game, things could completely implode.
It's been a very tough year for Curtis Painter. It's kind of sad to see him go out on such a sour note after all the great numbers he put up his first 3 seasons in West Lafayette. However, his confidence is at an all time low right now. With Brad Phillips knocking Joey Elliot out for the season last week, Tiller has nowhere else to turn. It's Curtis Painter's job, for better or worse. It's gonna be for worse this week against a Minnesota defense that has played better than anybody expected going in to this season. Expect at least two turnovers this week.
The Gophers had a two weeks to prepare for the Boilermakers. And although teams coming off a bye have struggled in the conference this week that trend will not continue this week. Minnesota wins this week and sets up a matchup next week against Northwestern of two ranked teams. Who knew?
Northwestern (-8) @ Indiana
BEST BET
I LOVE this line. Lots of people will point to the fact that Northwestern has historically underperfomed when playing the role of the favorite; that they're better off in the underdog role. Very true. However, this is a different Northwestern team. Head Coach Pat Fitzgerald has done a great job of keeping this team focused on the next game and keeping them from looking ahead. Just about every interview I read with an NU player he mentions that they are "0-0 and looking past (insert next opponent here.) My favorite quote of the week was Eric Peterman saying that NU was "the first 0-0 team to ever be ranked in the BCS."
Northwestern played their most complete game of the year last week against Purdue. C.J Bacher played his best game of the year. If he gets hot this team gets real dangerous in a hurry. The Northwestern defense gave up too many big plays but overall played well, especially when it came to forcing defense. This isn't the same NU defense we've been seeing for years. New defense coordinator Mike Hankwitz has done a phenominal defense of attacking more and getting his team to get more sacks and force a bunch of turnovers.
It's painful for Indiana right now. Kellen Lewis status for Saturday is still unknown. It doesn't matter. They just don't have the firepower. This is a very bad football team. They might keep it close for a little bit, but Northwestern turns it on, pulls away, and wins with relative ease. Take the Cats, you won't regret it.
Michigan State (-4) @ Michigan
This one is a little tougher to call than I originally anticipated. MSU didn't show up last week against OSU and Michigan played a hell of a half against PSU. It all went downhill for them after Threet had to leave the game. The idea of another Michigan State second half collapse is in the back of my mind, and although that scares me, I'm gonna trust them to bounce back this week. Don't make a fool of me, Spartans!
Michigan State is the better team. There is no reason for them to lose this game. This is still the same Michigan team that lost to Toledo. This is still the same Michigan team that lost a 23.5 point spread in a game they led mid-way through the 3rd quarter.
There has been a lot of talking this week. And we all still remember the Mike Hart comments from last season. Hopefully Michigan State mans up and finally wins this rivalry game.
Penn State (-2.5) @ Ohio State
This one should be a fun game to watch. Ohio State looked extremely good last week in East Lansing, but I still think Penn State is the better football team. Their second half against Michigan last week can not be ignored. Darryl Clark is everything Terrelle Pryor wants to be.
On paper this game looks like a pretty even matchup. However, Penn State has looked like the best team in the conference far and away all season. Just because OSU had a good game last week and Penn State took a half off is no reason to start doubting the Nittany Lions now. Joe Pa will have his boys ready. They now that a National Championship is potentially at stake here.
Counting on a true freshman QB in this big of a game would make me nervous. He's never experienced a game like this. He seems more mature than most kids his age out on the football field, but it all takes is one moment of panic to make a dumb mistake that costs his football team the game. Final note: OSU has a history of dissapointing in big games. Take the Nittany Lions and then sit back and enjoy what should be a very fun game to watch.
Illinois (-3) @ Wisconsin
BEST BET
I fully understand that this game is being played in Madison. You can throw all the stats at me you want about how good Wisconsin has been at home. I've seen them all, I understand them all. However, it's important to understand that this is not the same Wisconsin team we've been seeing for years.... far from it actually. The only stat that really matters is that they're 0-4 in the conference this year and 0-2 in the conference at home this year.
Brett Bielema made the change at QB from Allan Evridge to Dustin Sherer last week. It made little difference as the Badgers got drummed by Iowa. I think Shonn Greene still may be running. Things seem to get worse every week for the Badgers. It all started with that brutal second half in the big house to start the Big Ten season. They followed that up with a heartbreaking loss at home against Ohio State. Since that 4th quarter loss they've gotten destroyed two weeks in a row against Penn State and Iowa.
It doesn't get any easier for the Badgers this week with Illinois coming in to town. Illinois is probably the second most talented team in the conference and it appears that they finally feel like playing now. They looked lacksidasical much of the first half of the season, but the loss to Minnesota appears to have woken them up. Coach Zook challenged his guys and they responded with a 55-13 drumming of Indiana. Granted, Indiana has absolutely nothing going for them right now, but Illinois has to beat the team on their schedule. The Illini offense appears to be hitting on all cylinders right now. Juice Williams has played as well as any QB in the Big Ten since conference play started. Arrelious Benn is hands down the most dangerous WR in the confernce and true Freshman running back Jason Ford emerged last week with 172 rushing yards and 3 TD to compliment Daniel Dufrene. Throw in Jeff Cumberland, Will Judson, and Michael Hoomanawanuai and the Illini offense has too many weapons for the Badgers to handle.
Ignore the ancient history with this pick and focus on the two team that will be actually playing this Saturday. Illinois is focused on a New Year's Day bowl and they need this game to get there. Nothing has gone right for Wisconsin all year, and the team has layed down the last two weeks. There's no reason to expect any more effor this week. Take the Illini -3 and run with it all the way to the bank!
Minnesota (+1) @ Purdue
According to my book, the line has since moved 3 points in Purdue's favor. I apologize for not getting this pick up sooner. Either way, I think Minnesota is still the play.
People seem to think that Purdue has one great effort left in their tank. I'm sorry, but I don't think this is the case. I watched the entire Northwestern-Purdue game last week and the Boilermakers didn't show me anything to make me think that they can beat Purdue.
Kory Sheets is a heck of a college football player but he isn't enough to win Purdue this football game. Especially, when you look at the comments he made this week, bashing Painter and saying he can't do it all by himself. Very classless. Tiller called him out for it in the media, and rightfully so, but I wouldn't be shocked to see the big uglies up front "miss" a block or two this so Sheets gets his bell rung. It sounds like a very tense locker room to me. Things have only gotten worse each week for Purdue, and if they lose this game, things could completely implode.
It's been a very tough year for Curtis Painter. It's kind of sad to see him go out on such a sour note after all the great numbers he put up his first 3 seasons in West Lafayette. However, his confidence is at an all time low right now. With Brad Phillips knocking Joey Elliot out for the season last week, Tiller has nowhere else to turn. It's Curtis Painter's job, for better or worse. It's gonna be for worse this week against a Minnesota defense that has played better than anybody expected going in to this season. Expect at least two turnovers this week.
The Gophers had a two weeks to prepare for the Boilermakers. And although teams coming off a bye have struggled in the conference this week that trend will not continue this week. Minnesota wins this week and sets up a matchup next week against Northwestern of two ranked teams. Who knew?
Northwestern (-8) @ Indiana
BEST BET
I LOVE this line. Lots of people will point to the fact that Northwestern has historically underperfomed when playing the role of the favorite; that they're better off in the underdog role. Very true. However, this is a different Northwestern team. Head Coach Pat Fitzgerald has done a great job of keeping this team focused on the next game and keeping them from looking ahead. Just about every interview I read with an NU player he mentions that they are "0-0 and looking past (insert next opponent here.) My favorite quote of the week was Eric Peterman saying that NU was "the first 0-0 team to ever be ranked in the BCS."
Northwestern played their most complete game of the year last week against Purdue. C.J Bacher played his best game of the year. If he gets hot this team gets real dangerous in a hurry. The Northwestern defense gave up too many big plays but overall played well, especially when it came to forcing defense. This isn't the same NU defense we've been seeing for years. New defense coordinator Mike Hankwitz has done a phenominal defense of attacking more and getting his team to get more sacks and force a bunch of turnovers.
It's painful for Indiana right now. Kellen Lewis status for Saturday is still unknown. It doesn't matter. They just don't have the firepower. This is a very bad football team. They might keep it close for a little bit, but Northwestern turns it on, pulls away, and wins with relative ease. Take the Cats, you won't regret it.
Michigan State (-4) @ Michigan
This one is a little tougher to call than I originally anticipated. MSU didn't show up last week against OSU and Michigan played a hell of a half against PSU. It all went downhill for them after Threet had to leave the game. The idea of another Michigan State second half collapse is in the back of my mind, and although that scares me, I'm gonna trust them to bounce back this week. Don't make a fool of me, Spartans!
Michigan State is the better team. There is no reason for them to lose this game. This is still the same Michigan team that lost to Toledo. This is still the same Michigan team that lost a 23.5 point spread in a game they led mid-way through the 3rd quarter.
There has been a lot of talking this week. And we all still remember the Mike Hart comments from last season. Hopefully Michigan State mans up and finally wins this rivalry game.
Penn State (-2.5) @ Ohio State
This one should be a fun game to watch. Ohio State looked extremely good last week in East Lansing, but I still think Penn State is the better football team. Their second half against Michigan last week can not be ignored. Darryl Clark is everything Terrelle Pryor wants to be.
On paper this game looks like a pretty even matchup. However, Penn State has looked like the best team in the conference far and away all season. Just because OSU had a good game last week and Penn State took a half off is no reason to start doubting the Nittany Lions now. Joe Pa will have his boys ready. They now that a National Championship is potentially at stake here.
Counting on a true freshman QB in this big of a game would make me nervous. He's never experienced a game like this. He seems more mature than most kids his age out on the football field, but it all takes is one moment of panic to make a dumb mistake that costs his football team the game. Final note: OSU has a history of dissapointing in big games. Take the Nittany Lions and then sit back and enjoy what should be a very fun game to watch.
I had Illinois last week too, glad we both cleaned up. :toast:
Personally, I don't like anything about Indiana at +8. A few reasons why:
- The Indiana rushing attack isn't as good as the numbers indicate. The numbers are inflated because of 297 yards against Western Kentucky and 254 against Murray State.
- Marcus Thigpen has big-play potential, but struggles to run the ball well consistently.
- Indiana has played five true D-IA football teams and has lost those five by an average of 25 points.
- The Indiana offense line has been a huge dissapointment. Combine that with the fact that NU has been near the top of the conference in sacks all season long and we could be seeing the IU QB on his back this week, whether it be Chappell or Lewis.
