Thank god the NFL is back.. these are my initial plays for Week One.. will probably add some smaller plays here n there as the week goes on
Pitt-Tennessee over 35 *
Where to start here.. seems like many will like the under between these two "defensive" teams. In fact, games that are played in Pittsburgh tend to be quite high scoring, despite the tendency to view Pitt as a shutdown defense. Their opener last year against Houston had 55 points scored. When the weather is terrible later in the season, like the 11-10 game against San Diego or the game against Dallas, you start seeing some unders. Tennessee will not be as stout against the run without Haynesworth this season, and I think Pitt will open it up with Willie Parker and then the play action. I'm thinking a 24-17 type game
Giants-Skins under 37.5 **** POW
Ill copy my thoughts on this game from when I first saw the line at 40...
I dont like to call any bet a sure thing, but under 40 in the week 1 matchup between the Giants and Redskins has some unbelievable value. An excellent opportunity to take advantage of inflated week 1 lines because totals are generally high early on as the public tends to bet over.
Last year these two teams played twice- at NY the Giants won 16-7, in Washington the Giants won 23-7. In the first game, the Gmen even had Burress, who obviously wont be a factor in week one this season. In addition, these will be two of the top 5 defenses in the NFL next season. The Gmen welcome back Osi Umenyoira, while the Redskins made one of the biggest impact moves of the offseason in adding Haynesworth, the leader of the Titans defense last season, to what was already a top 5 defense.
As many of you know, these are both run heavy teams as well.. with Jason Campbell at QB the Skins really dont have many options but to hand the ball to Portis, and after Burress was done last season all the Giants did was run the football behind their great O-line. This game has under written all over it. 17-13 Giants
Niners +7 **
Wont get into this game much, but I think the Niners have an excellent chance to win this game straight up. The games between these two squads have been tight when played in Zona, where SF covered last season and won 2 years ago. IF you have watched Zona this preseason, it hasnt been pretty.. Warner does not look like the same QB from a season ago. I know you cannot put too much stake in the preseason, but when you go into the season 0-4 and get held out of the endzone in 2 of the games, you have problems.. especially when offense is supposed to be their strength. I think the magical SB run from a year ago has inflated this line.. Zona should be favored by 3-4 at the most IMO, and Singletary has a decent chance to lead his team to a week one upset. 24-21 Niners
Colts -1 / Seahawks -2.5 Tease ***
I will be shocked if the Colts lose this game. I know the Jags have played their division foe tough, but let's face it- Peyton was not Peyton last year. You could see it going into the season- he didnt play in the early going because of the knee, and he wasn't himself in many of the games especially early on. Anyone who has watched him practice/ play in the preseason knows that he is a man on a mission. New coach/coordinator or not, this team will be good this season. Peyton is pretty much the coach on the field anyways. Bob Sanders is a loss, but the Jags offense is a mess at any rat, and very one-dimensional. The Colts are a team that are surprisingly for them flying under the radar, and Manning isnt a QB you want under the radar.
The Seahawks and the Rams are two teams going in opposite directions. The Rams on the one hand are a disaster. They have no offensive line to speak of, no real playmakers on defense, and lost their leader on offense in Torry Holt in the offseason. Now that Avery is hurt, their starting wideouts are Laurent Robinson and Derek Stanley. Bulger is hurt, but he will play. Sorry, but Steven Jackson needs more help than that.
While everyone is picking Houston as their sleeper team this year, the Seahawks are my pick and I believe will win their division.. easily, actually. In the preseason they outscored their opponents 92-58 in going 4-0. People seem to forget that Hasselbeck is a Pro Bowl QB.. they played all of last year with Seneca Wallace and 4th string WRs, and there were still teams a lot worse than Seattle. Well, now Hasselbeck has a healthy Burleson, Deion Branch, and newly acquired TJ Houshmandzadeh to throw too, along with a LOT of depth at RB: Julius Jones, Edge James, and TJ Duckett (the premeir goalline RB in the NFL). People also forget they drafted Aaron Curry- if he is as good as advertised, a LB core on defense of Tatupu, Curry, and Leroy Hill will be one of the best in the league. I dont think you need to tease this as it will be a beatdown in my opinion, but I am rounding out my Indy play with them anways. 38-10 Seattle
I am also looking at the Philly-Carolina over, as well as both Monday night games. Good luck in week one everyone
Pitt-Tennessee over 35 *
Where to start here.. seems like many will like the under between these two "defensive" teams. In fact, games that are played in Pittsburgh tend to be quite high scoring, despite the tendency to view Pitt as a shutdown defense. Their opener last year against Houston had 55 points scored. When the weather is terrible later in the season, like the 11-10 game against San Diego or the game against Dallas, you start seeing some unders. Tennessee will not be as stout against the run without Haynesworth this season, and I think Pitt will open it up with Willie Parker and then the play action. I'm thinking a 24-17 type game
Giants-Skins under 37.5 **** POW
Ill copy my thoughts on this game from when I first saw the line at 40...
I dont like to call any bet a sure thing, but under 40 in the week 1 matchup between the Giants and Redskins has some unbelievable value. An excellent opportunity to take advantage of inflated week 1 lines because totals are generally high early on as the public tends to bet over.
Last year these two teams played twice- at NY the Giants won 16-7, in Washington the Giants won 23-7. In the first game, the Gmen even had Burress, who obviously wont be a factor in week one this season. In addition, these will be two of the top 5 defenses in the NFL next season. The Gmen welcome back Osi Umenyoira, while the Redskins made one of the biggest impact moves of the offseason in adding Haynesworth, the leader of the Titans defense last season, to what was already a top 5 defense.
As many of you know, these are both run heavy teams as well.. with Jason Campbell at QB the Skins really dont have many options but to hand the ball to Portis, and after Burress was done last season all the Giants did was run the football behind their great O-line. This game has under written all over it. 17-13 Giants
Niners +7 **
Wont get into this game much, but I think the Niners have an excellent chance to win this game straight up. The games between these two squads have been tight when played in Zona, where SF covered last season and won 2 years ago. IF you have watched Zona this preseason, it hasnt been pretty.. Warner does not look like the same QB from a season ago. I know you cannot put too much stake in the preseason, but when you go into the season 0-4 and get held out of the endzone in 2 of the games, you have problems.. especially when offense is supposed to be their strength. I think the magical SB run from a year ago has inflated this line.. Zona should be favored by 3-4 at the most IMO, and Singletary has a decent chance to lead his team to a week one upset. 24-21 Niners
Colts -1 / Seahawks -2.5 Tease ***
I will be shocked if the Colts lose this game. I know the Jags have played their division foe tough, but let's face it- Peyton was not Peyton last year. You could see it going into the season- he didnt play in the early going because of the knee, and he wasn't himself in many of the games especially early on. Anyone who has watched him practice/ play in the preseason knows that he is a man on a mission. New coach/coordinator or not, this team will be good this season. Peyton is pretty much the coach on the field anyways. Bob Sanders is a loss, but the Jags offense is a mess at any rat, and very one-dimensional. The Colts are a team that are surprisingly for them flying under the radar, and Manning isnt a QB you want under the radar.
The Seahawks and the Rams are two teams going in opposite directions. The Rams on the one hand are a disaster. They have no offensive line to speak of, no real playmakers on defense, and lost their leader on offense in Torry Holt in the offseason. Now that Avery is hurt, their starting wideouts are Laurent Robinson and Derek Stanley. Bulger is hurt, but he will play. Sorry, but Steven Jackson needs more help than that.
While everyone is picking Houston as their sleeper team this year, the Seahawks are my pick and I believe will win their division.. easily, actually. In the preseason they outscored their opponents 92-58 in going 4-0. People seem to forget that Hasselbeck is a Pro Bowl QB.. they played all of last year with Seneca Wallace and 4th string WRs, and there were still teams a lot worse than Seattle. Well, now Hasselbeck has a healthy Burleson, Deion Branch, and newly acquired TJ Houshmandzadeh to throw too, along with a LOT of depth at RB: Julius Jones, Edge James, and TJ Duckett (the premeir goalline RB in the NFL). People also forget they drafted Aaron Curry- if he is as good as advertised, a LB core on defense of Tatupu, Curry, and Leroy Hill will be one of the best in the league. I dont think you need to tease this as it will be a beatdown in my opinion, but I am rounding out my Indy play with them anways. 38-10 Seattle
I am also looking at the Philly-Carolina over, as well as both Monday night games. Good luck in week one everyone
