middling...

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Lurker, actually you were 100% wrong. Your statement was "As Pancho correctly said they are exactly the same." They are not exactly the same, therefore the statement was false and you were 100% wrong. Period. I said they were close, but not the same. I was just trying to be accurate. Dpending on the numbers though, the difference in expected profit can be a lot more than 0.09% though. Let's say for argument's sake we assume each number has a 3% hit rate...then the difference would be:
91*-10=-910
3*100=+300
3*100=+300
3*200=+600
Net up +290
VS.
94*-10=-940
6*200=+1200
Net up +260

That's a 29% return per $ risked vs. a 26% return. Or in other words it's more than a 10% greater return. 29 cents on the dollar vs. 26 cents. It rarely if ever would make the difference between making the play or not, but in the long long run there would be some impact on the bottom line. It's a little more than negligible.
 

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It rarely if ever would make the difference between making the play or not,

As we never get the choice between these plays I say whats your point?
I said I was wrong and they were not exactly the same just extremely phucking close.

What you failed to mention is that you would be far better off taking the bad number vs taking the middle which will earn you enough for a candy bar.
I mean you put $22,000 into play per 100 tries to get very little in return.
Whats the EV for getting an extra 1.5-2 points on the closing line.
I laugh when people play at SIA, middle the piss out of them and get booted when the win 10-15K, except they don`t win 10-15K because they phucked it all away at pinnacle.
No wonder pinnacle and cascade love scalpers and middlers!
 

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"I laugh when people play at SIA, middle the piss out of them and get booted when the win 10-15K, except they don`t win 10-15K because they phucked it all away at pinnacle"

First, I don't laugh at people who choose to gamble, even though the vast majority of them lose short-term, middle-term and long-term, whether or not they will admit it even to themselves. A lot will justify the losses as 'entertainment', like going to casinos, and I myself once did that long ago - until I'd had enough of it.

I'll say based on personal experience that you are making one hell of an assumption about SIA - I can't tell you how many scalps, sides, siddles and middles I hit there before getting the boot. Your assumption is completely wrong concerning that one would get the boot before one could earn very well - it's certainly not like you're going to win 65-70% of your bets there and go out before you can scoop some freebies up (or could, haven't looked there for quite a while).

But, hey, if it's important for you to think that we should all be betting the 'bad' numbers instead of middling them (but not 'bad' enough to be canceled by the book), then one must also assume that by doing so one will make considerably more money at it - which, if that is true, means 2 things: (1) you personally must be doing this and you must have statistics on how often the 'bad' number cashes and (2) you don't mind participating in an activity equally 'bad' as middling, which SPV has officially labelled 'idiotic'. True or false?

Also, if Pinnacle's numbers are the word of almighty God, then it should be a very simple exercise to develop a system where you simply put your money on the side that you think Pinny doesn't want you to. I think I've seen that someone has said they do this - then I'd ask for mathematical validation that they have been successful long-term doing it. Don't know if you're the one, lurker, but if you aren't then your comments would indicate that you certainly think Pinnacle is a whirlpool sucking in the dollars of the middlers, thereby stating that those same bets at Pinnacle win while their sister bets at SIA lose - then why don't you open an account at SIA, find the middles or sides but simply only place the REVERSE bets at Pinnacle? Shouldn't the money then roll in at Pinnacle for you? Best thing of all, you'd never be booted from SIA, in fact you don't even have to join them to see the lines you need to act upon!

Personally, I chuckle from time to time when I read criticisms of middling from people - it's never based on any supposition that you'll lose money doing it but only reducing your 'profits', as if every gambler is sufficiently capable of even winning, much less hitting at a 55% clip, which is what you gain by hitting 5% of middles (we've got the math elsewhere in another topic on that), and far more when you hit 6% (we're talking paying 20 points total, not even talking paying reduced juice). Well, the news here is that the big majority of gamblers never have the luxury of quibbling over profits for any significant period of time, because they lose.

So if people wish to call middlers idiots and castigate them for not gambling or taking the 'bad' numbers SU, BFD - they're not changing the underlying reality of the situation with name-calling.

[This message was edited by Jazz on March 04, 2004 at 09:47 PM.]
 

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good post jazz. i agree with almost everything you said...but i will still not middle my sosa homerun bet because:

1) then i have to root for him until september...and i hate him.

2) i think i have a strong chance to win the bet with d2 given the fact that most odds makers have agreed on a much lower number as the "correct number".
 

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blue: lol! Well, I was just yanking your chain because I knew you wouldn't want to be in a position to root for Sammy during the season -
personally, I'm still hopeful D2 will let me have a taste for a dime or two at U47:
toast.gif
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>I'll say based on personal experience that you are making one hell of an assumption about SIA - I can't tell you how many scalps, sides, siddles and middles I hit there before getting the boot. Your assumption is completely wrong concerning that one would get the boot before one could earn very well - it's certainly not like you're going to win 65-70% of your bets there and go out before you can scoop some freebies up (or could, haven't looked there for quite a while).
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Jazz the EV of the middle has to come from somewhere?
Rarely, if ever is there a perfect balance.
Mostly one shop will have a bad line and then you play back at another.

What you are doing mathmatically is diluting the +EV of the bad line with the negative EV of the playback line.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> your comments would indicate that you certainly think Pinnacle is a whirlpool sucking in the dollars of the middlers, thereby stating that those same bets at Pinnacle win while their sister bets at SIA lose - then why don't you open an account at SIA, find the middles or sides but simply only place the REVERSE bets at Pinnacle? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

This is silly because pinnacle won`t have the same line in reverse, thats why we are playing that side at SIA in the first place.
Its the best line.
The extra value you get IS THE EDGE.
Ask any big time middler/scalper who uses pinnacle or cascade and see if they withdraw more at the shit books or at Pinnacle/cascade.

Don`t bother I already know the answer!
 

acw

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Jazz,

Obviously those making money through middling are making money. And it is not a criminal offence, so one has no real reason for criminalising it. It does make me laugh however how some guys like dell dude sometimes do get on with them.

Why do I not middle myself that often anymore? Well start calculating how much one makes on a middle itself; it is actually very little. Why do so many still do it then? Bonus money! All these scalps, middles, etc. are excellent for fulfilling the rollover requirement. One can even middle with a little disadvantage (I see many do) and still show a profit thanks to all the bonuses available.

Which impact do middlers have on my own betting? I want them out of business as soon as possible. Very often when I disagree with a market move I can see a line at Pinnacle being moved back too early! If there were no middlers and Pinnacle would have to move their lines further, I could have had a nice bet, but now I pass. The other way round, if I am with the market, I would have been on already. This is why a book like Pinnacle is now so useless for me.
 

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Lurker, you're assuming that when someone sees two numbers that are worth middling that one can consistently identify which side is the positive, or higher, EV. I think this is a dubious assumption. And I don't think Pinnacle is always "right". In fact I am in the black at Pinny doing virutally little else besides middling and scalping them for 2 years. I think on many middles and scalps when you get the best number on both sides that both sides are +EV, even if one of them is more +. I'll say it again, a +EV bet cannot be dilutive unless you had been planning on betting your entire bankorll on the other +EV bet, which is just silly. I am 100% confident that middles/scalps with the correct parameteres will generate a nice positive return, why risk betting with Pinnacle's, or others' opinions, of which I do not have 100% confidence?

For example, last night for the 2nd half Lakers game I saw O93-107 and U94+104. Now I knew that the 2nd half had better than a 67-1 chance of landing on one of those numbers, doesn't take a genius to figure that out. But I had no idea which one of those numbers had the +EV, or the higher +EV, and frankly I suppose I'm not sharp enough to figure that out. I'd probably have guessed O93-107 since Pinny had the under. Oh well, it landed 93 and cashed at Pinny. So I cashed the 67-1 prop bet. How that can be bad, or dilutive, I have no idea, and I don't want to know. I just like the results.
 

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Nice cash if you can get it, D2
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acw: you may be right about some middlers, but I can tell you that I really couldn't care less if books had bonuses or not because they're not in the least significant to me. Period. It's the middles.

lurker: I have to agree with D2's section on the +EV above to answer your point - sure, the value is chopped down at Pinny but your point was that you'd be a big net loser at Pinnacle on your bets, and wouldn't make money overall before being booted at SIA - which is 100% wrong. If that were actually true, then you'd be winning an overwhelming amount at SIA and losing that proportion at Pinnacle, so regardless of the relative value of the reverse bet at Pinnacle, all you'd care about is actually cashing. My point is that it's simply not true. Also, let's not forget, shall we, that SIA lays out (or did, anyway) lines like +7.5+110 in the NFL when -7-110 could be had elsewhere - so in this case, laying a side bet down with an 'infinite' return on your money (since you're risking nothing) has to be far preferable than the alternative - and these did not use to be isolated cases at SIA. Or getting a fat +5 +105 in the NBA when elsewhere you might lay -4 -107, an average return of 105.5 to 1 for either of the 2 margins - as D2 said above, not a bad prop bet.

If middling dried up today I would have absolutely zero interest in 'gambling' because middling when done right is, as D2 so aptly put it, not gambling - I call it 'sports investing', and I could care less what anyone thinks of my handicapping prowess when I personally don't care if I have any or not - it's all about the benjamins.
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acw

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an average return of 105.5 to 1
Even I would bet these, if it is a match on which I have no opinion! But how much can you get on?
 

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All depends on the book (SIA in the past would take up to 1K on sides, but I think they're down to a nickel now) - but then, what difference does it matter what you can get down since it's a no or low-risk situation, unless you're gambling for a living and if you actually do consistently make enough to have it be your primary source of income, then you are rare indeed. In this example, it'd cost you $4.88 to win either $500 or $530.12 on a 4 or 5 landing - one hell of a payoff for a simple 2-way margin bet for the NBA.
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g'nite
 

acw

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it'd cost you $4.88 to win either $500 or $530.12 on a 4 or 5 landing
If I see it, sure I will grab it, but I am not going to wait hours for it to happen!

Another issue is that apart from these bets helping gamblers to collect their bonus, it makes money move in between the books. How does that money move? If the books take all the charges, are we surprised so many are going under? If it is a shared thing (deposits for free and withdrawals have to be paid for), then this goes off of the edge. Sorry, but now I am even thinking of not betting these at all anymore!
 

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Give me a two point NBA middle anyday of the week over a capper who hits 55 %.

The reason is the risk profile of both positions is different.

A guy hitting 55 % has to risk about $7000 per bet to match waht a middler could earn laying 5500 on both ends of his middle.

After 100 such middles, the chances of not being up are almost zero, whereas the with a player making 100 bets with a 55 % expectation, there is a ggood chance he will be down, not to mention some of the drawdowns will be massive.

How many guys are willing to bet $7000 on a sporting event? Almost none. I could easily lay $5500 on a 2 point middle and risk losing the $500 juice without sweating it too much.

So bottom line, you do add some negative EV by middling against a strong play, however, a straight better needs to bet large amounts to earn as much as the guy who middles and his equity swings and overal risk will be huge compare to the middler.
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Pancho, now you're talkin'. And while simultaneous 2 point middles are awfully tough to find, it's functional equivalent with reduced juice is not quite so difficult. i.e. my 93-107/94+104 total is the functional equivalent of a 6 point middle. Anyone who can't see the value in that should not be betting on sports.
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acw

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I could easily lay $5500 on a 2 point middle and risk losing the $500 juice without sweating it too much.
But the $5000 ones you will not find too often!
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by acw:
_I could easily lay $5500 on a 2 point middle and risk losing the $500 juice without sweating it too much._
But the $5000 ones you will not find too often!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

It was hypothetical.

They were easier to find a few years ago thats for sure.
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>lurker: I have to agree with D2's section on the +EV above to answer your point - sure, the value is chopped down at Pinny but your point was that you'd be a big net loser at Pinnacle on your bets, and wouldn't make money overall before being booted at SIA - which is 100% wrong. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

No, thats not what I said.
My point is if you get booted at SIA for winning 10K you may only make say 2-3K of real profit.
Same with all soft outs, you burn them for little REAL profit.
Why do you think VIP/SIA/WAGERSTREET and all the other square books will limit/ban you and Pinnacle wont.

You certainly don`t need any handicapping skills.
Get +7 in the NBA when the line is -5.5 then its a marginal but profitable middle.
But taking the +7 blind on a line that closes -5.5 is vastly more profitable.
On average the -5.5 will win about 50% of the time so the +7 must win 56.5%
Thats why anybody with an ounce of shopping skills gets booted from the softer books.
 

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