Mid-term turnout by those "low information" voters that are no fans of Trump, but are being given every reason to feel combative and motivated, will be the deciding factor in whether the House goes Blue. And if there are many undecided voters out there, they most often break in one direction, but I sure haven't heard a closing argument from the President that would persuade the readily identifiable undecided voting segments . . . I've been mildly pessimistic for part of 2018, but on election eve I have to say 2 to 1 odds (-200) in favor is actually decent value.
(1)Wonder How Trump Will Handle Defeat? Don’t Bother with History.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/s...018-elections-midterms-defeat-reaction-222189
"Can anyone who has watched Trump over the past three-plus years reasonably expect a man who considers himself the greatest president ever would reconsider his standing? The far greater likelihood is that he will take credit for saving the Senate and insist that any Republicans who did win their House races got there because he carried them over the line, while the ones who lost would have been beaten worse if not for his intervention."
"More significant, Trump has been unique among presidents for his indifference, even hostility, to expanding his reach. In his campaign rallies, he has defined Democrats not as opponents, but as enemies. He doesn’t charge them with embracing bad policies; he accuses them of
wanting to see crime and joblessness increase."
"But it is not only a stubborn and combative president that makes prospects of a post-midterm detente so unlikely. Consider what a Democratic House majority will look like. The new members’ ideologies will likely range from Democratic socialist to ardently centrist, with pressure from the base to resist Trump at every turn. The incoming committee chairs are veteran members with a strongly liberal tilt, and with a clear appetite to begin using their power to investigate everything . . ."
"Nor should we forget the likely makeup of Republican caucus. The most endangered Republican incumbents come from the steadily shrinking pool of (relative) moderates . . . What this means is that the next congress’s House Republican caucus will be significantly more right-leaning than this one."
(2) "Trump has hijacked the election": House Republicans in panic mode
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/04/trump-2018-elections-midterms-republicans-immigration-960748
(3) Texas Republicans believe Ted Cruz was beatable — if only his opponent paid attention to them.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/04/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-texas-senate-2018-election-222188
This post does lack any memes and captions about how awesome Trump is.
GL